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 Author's personal copy

Journal of Hydrology (2008) 354, 203– 212

available at www.sciencedirect.com

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Simulation of runoff in West Africa: Is there

a single data-model combination that produces
the best simulation results?
A. Dezetter a, S. Girard b, J.E. Paturel a,*
, G. Mahé c, S. Ardoin-Bardin c,
E. Servat c

a
IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement), BP 2528, Bamako, Mali
b
ADBX, Cemagref Bordeaux, 50 Avenue de Verdun, Gazinet, 33612 Cestas, France
c
IRD/HydroSciences Montpellier (HSM), Université de Montpellier II, Case MSE, Pl. E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex
05, France

Received 16 April 2007; received in revised form 4 December 2007; accepted 16 March 2008

KEYWORDS Summary Is there a single combination of hydrologic model and data that yields the best
Hydrologic modelling; simulations of runoff from a set of catchments in West Africa in the coming decades?
Hydrometeorological To answer this question, a semi-distributed modelling platform was developed. It com-
dataset; prises two models (GR2M and Water Balance Model) and various datasets as inputs to these
West Africa models (three potential evapotranspiration [PET] grids and four soil water holding capac-
ity [WHC] grids). The platform makes it possible to regionalise runoff flows, which are dis-
cretised in grids of mesh size 0.5 · 0.5. On the basis of these datasets and models, we
compare the performance of the various possible data-model combinations.
The study area contains 49 catchments located in Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Burkina
Faso and Niger.
The analysis shows that the selected models are hardly sensitive at all to the different
PET grids but more sensitive to the soil grids. The GR2M model clearly gives the best
results for the set of catchments, but does not perform well over the entire study area,
whatever the grid dataset used:

• It is thus seen to be difficult to define a single data-model combination that is optimal

for simulating runoff in West Africa.

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: jean-emmanuel.paturel@ird.fr (J.E. Paturel).

0022-1694/$ - see front matter ª 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.014
 Author's personal copy
204
• As to the existence of a ‘‘general’’ model that could be used anywhere, we find that,
for the selected study area, neither of the two models selected fully meets the objec-
tive.
ª 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Studying the impacts of climate variability on hydrologic re-
gimes is of paramount importance for the planning of large-
scale water management, particularly in countries whose
development depends on water management, such as Afri-
can countries and developing countries in general.
To this end, Ouedraogo (2001) developed a semi-distrib-
uted rainfall-runoff modelling platform, with a monthly
time step, to simulate runoff in West and Central Africa.
Among the many models in the literature, two conceptual
models were selected: GR2M (Makhlouf, 1994) and Conway
and Jones (1999) water balance model (WBM). As inputs,
these models use spatially distributed data in the form of
grids of rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and soil
water holding capacity (WHC). Several gridded datasets
available for West Africa were used for this study covering
49 catchments located in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea
and Côte d’Ivoire.
The aim of this paper is to consider whether there can be
a single modelling protocol (data-model combination) that
is adequate for simulating future runoff in West Africa. Such
a protocol must be applicable and repeatable over the
greatest possible number of catchments and over a large
range of modelling periods, as West Africa has experienced
a climate change since 1970 that has affected the rainfall-
runoff relationship.
Data and method
Presentation of the modelling platform
Two 2-parameter conceptual models with a monthly time
step were used for this study: the Water Balance Model
(WBM), which is a modified version of the balance model de-
fined by Thornthwaite (e.g. Conway and Jones, 1999), and
the GR2M ‘‘reservoirs’’ model of the French research insti-
tute CEMAGREF (Paturel et al., 1995). The models are not
detailed here, but their generic representation is given in
Fig. 1. Although the equations describing them are differ-
ent, the models function in a similar way:
One part of monthly rainfall contributes to the direct
flow (parameter a);
The level of a reservoir, which represents the water sup-
ply, changes according to rainfall and PET; gradual empty-
ing of this water supply produces the delayed flow
response (parameter b).
These models require rainfall and PET data as inputs, and
produce runoff data as output. They also require an input
variable related to the type of soil and vegetation of the
catchment which is similar to a representation of soil water
holding capacity (WHC). This value defines the highest level
of storage producing delayed flow. All data, except runoff,
are spatially distributed.
A. Dezetter et al.
Figure 1 Generic diagram of the functioning of GR2M and
WBM models (R, rainfall; ET P/R: potential/real evapotranspi-
ration; WHC: soil water holding capacity; Q1/r: delayed/direct
flow).
Dividing the catchment into regular grid cells (0.5 by
0.5), we simulate the variations in (a) water storage in
the soil, (b) actual evapotranspiration and (c) runoff, on
the basis of rainfall, PET and WHC in the grid cell consid-
ered. The total flow at the catchment outlet is obtained
by summation of the various grid cell contributions, calcu-
lated separately for each time step. With a monthly time
step, it was not necessary to include a process of transfer
between grid cells.
The numerical values of the parameters are obtained
after calibration through optimisation of a quality criterion.
The criterion selected is the Nash criterion (Nash and Stutc-
liffe, 1970), which is defined as follows:
" #
P i i 2
i ðQ o  Q c Þ
NASH ¼ 100 1  P i 2
in % ð1Þ
i ðQ o  Q m Þ
where Q io andQ ic are respectively observed and calculated
runoff,
Q m is mean observed runoff over the entire observation
period.
The closer the Nash criterion is to 100, the better the ad-
justed model fits the observational data. It should be noted
that this criterion tends to give increased weight to the
large variations that generally occur during high-water peri-
ods (Perrin, 2000).
The process selected for parameter optimisation is to
link two methods that are well known in hydrology, the
Rosenbrock method and the Nelder–Mead method (Guilbot,
1971; Servat, 1986). These methods take an iterative ap-
proach, starting from a point in the parameter space and
moving in a direction that shows continual improvement in
the value of the criterion function until there is no longer
any perceptible improvement. This procedure makes it
 Author's personal copy
Simulation of runoff in West Africa
possible to avoid relative minima, a traditional pitfall of
numerical optimisation methods (Servat, 1993).
Data
Catchments
Runoff was simulated for 49 catchments (Fig. 2) located on
the Niger, Volta, Comoé and Bandama rivers. These catch-
ments, whose surface area ranges from 2000 km2 to
630,000 km2, are located in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Côte
d’Ivoire and Guinea.
Above latitude 10N, the climate is Sudanian tropical,
with a long dry season from November to April. Below lati-
tude 10N, it becomes a humid tropical climate with more
abundant rainfall interrupted by two dry seasons (December
to April and August to September). From the north-north-
east to the south-south-west, annual rainfall ranges from
400 mm to 2000 mm.
The hydrological regimes of these catchments vary from
a Sahelian regime in the north, characterised by low runoff
and sporadic flooding, to a pure tropical regime in the
south, with a short high-water period followed by flow
depletion. In between lies a transitional tropical regime,
in which high- and low-water periods are less strongly
marked (Ouedraogo, 2001).
Table 1 summarises selected climatic and hydrologic
characteristics of these catchments, as well as mean annual
runoff coefficients for recent decades. Since 1970, this re-
gion of Africa has undergone sharp climatic and hydrologic
change, along with an increase in human activities that have
an impact on the rainfall-runoff relationship. These runoff
coefficients range from 0.8% to 40% and, for the great
majority of the catchments, decrease markedly (by 30% on
average) as from 1970, with the noteworthy exception of
those located in the north-east of our study area, namely
Figure 2 Location of the catchments.
205
the right-bank tributaries of the Niger and the Nakambé at
Wayen. For some of these catchments, it was observed that
annual runoff increased, which may seem paradoxical since
annual rainfall declined. We will return to this matter
below.
Data grids
The simulations were carried out using one rainfall data
grid, three PET data grids and four WHC data grids over a
period running from 1902 to 1995.
The monthly rainfall grid is that of the Climatic Research
Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (New et al., 1999,
2000). It was constructed by spline interpolation of rainfall
time series (Wahba, 1990) from a set of hydrological sta-
tions selected for the quality and duration of their
observations.
The three monthly PET grids were generated by the FAO
and the CRU (New et al., 1999, 2000) using various formu-
lae, all of which are derived from the Penman formula:
PET FAO (Penman-Monteith as described by Smith (1992),
PET PEN (standard Penman as described by Shuttleworth
(1994) and PET TO (Thom and Oliver, 1977). Generally
speaking, for the area studied, we find the following rela-
tionship among the three monthly PET values: PET TO < PET
FAO < PET PEN. The differences from one grid to the next
are around 10%.
Three of the WHC grids were calculated (Girard et al.,
2002) from the FAO’s soil map of the world (FAO-UNESCO,
1974-1981): they are labelled grids WHC FAOmin, WHC
FAOmn and WHC FAOmax, according to the water holding
capacity used for the calculation (minimum, mean or maxi-
mum of the FAO classes). The fourth was calculated by the
CRU, again on the basis of the FAO soil map but taking ac-
count of the vegetation cover using Dunne and Willmott’s
(1996) method: this is labelled grid WHC D-W. Generally
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206
Table 1 Climatic and hydrologic characteristics of the catchments – in boldface, catchments where runoff coefficient increases between the two periods
Country Station Period River Catchment Area Annual Annual rainfall Normal annual Normal annual Runoff Runoff
(km2) rainfall (mm) 1971–1995 discharge discharge coefficient coefficient
(mm) (m3/s) (m3/s) (%) before (%) after
1950–1970 before 1970 after 1970 1970 1970
Burkina Faso Batie 1971–1995 Poni Volta 5605 1124 998 – 12 – 6.3
Boromo 1955–1995 Mouhoun Volta 54499 896 754 45 24 3 1.8
Dapola 1951–1995 Mouhoun Volta 86566 946 810 126 70 4.8 3
Folonzo 1969–1995 Comoé Comoé 8366 1222 1012 – 18 – 6.3
Koriziena 1972–1995 Gorouol Niger 2887 559 418 2 3 5.5 6.5
Nobere 1965–1995 Nazinon Volta 7850 939 809 – 5 – 2.7
Nwokuy 1955–1995 Mouhoun Volta 15464 1072 909 31 24 6 5.5
Pont d’Ouessa 1969–1995 Mouhoun Volta 66653 922 778 80 27 4.4 1.6
Wayen 1955–1995 Nakambé Volta 20241 742 604 5 12 1.2 3.1
Yendere 1955–1995 Comoé Comoé 6288 1318 1092 42 21 16.4 9.5
Côte d’lvoire Akakomoekrou 1956–1995 Comoé Comoé 58305 1238 1041 231 118 9.9 6
Aniassue 1954–1995 Comoé Comoé 70636 1239 1067 269 124 9.4 5.1
Bada 1962–1995 Bandama Bandama 23809 1378 1126 152 65 14.6 8.4
Bouafle 1954–1995 Maraou Bandama 21267 1454 1207 99 49 9.9 6.3
Fetekro 1960–1995 Nzi Bandama 10175 1291 1052 41 22 9.7 6.2
Iradougou 1962–1995 Kouroukele Niger 1820 1614 1303 24 14 26.2 25.2
Koutoav 1961–1995 Bagoue Niger 4711 1497 1185 49 26 22.4 17
Mbahiakro 1954–1995 Nzi Bandama 15368 1272 1056 62 30 8 5.7
Rte Beoumi 1954–1995 Bandama Bandama 12905 1462 1212 75 36 12.5 8.1
Serebou 1954–1995 Comoé Comoé 50587 1247 1030 215 105 9.9 6.3
Guinée Badera 1967–1993 Kolente Kolente 3198 2308 1957 77 65 34.8 32.5
Bindan 1970–1989 Fatala Fatala 5074 2362 1990 – 143 – 45.2
Faranah 1955–1995 Niger Niger 3171 2030 1890 77 61 39.8 31.7
Kankan 1955–1995 Niger Niger 10047 1958 1729 210 152 33.2 27.4
Kouroussa 1950–1995 Niger Niger 17163 1871 1666 260 167 25.2 18.2
Mandiana 1954–1988 Sankarani Niger 21904 1792 1498 293 217 24 19.4
Ouaran 1954–1986 Tinkisso Niger 19728 1572 1309 212 107 22.4 12.8
Siguiri 1950–1995 Niger Niger 69735 1772 1543 1221 733 30.8 21.2
Tinkisso 1955–1995 Tinkisso Niger 6551 1739 1421 89 53 25.4 17.4
Mali Ansongo 1950–1995 Niger Niger 503610 883 724 1096 654 7.7 5.7
Banankoro 1967–1995 Niger Niger 73285 1750 1522 1284 731 30.9 20.4
A. Dezetter et al.
Bougouni 1956–1979 Baoule Niger 14966 1465 1225 138 77 20.1 12.5
Dioila 1953–1979 Baoule Niger 32431 1314 1093 250 109 15.4 7.7
Dire 1924–1995 Niger Niger 341047 1186 985 1243 645 13.1 8.2
Douna 1922–1995 Bani Niger 101225 1267 1029 696 209 16.8 6.2
Ke Macina 1953–1995 Niger Niger 160848 1419 1205 1476 805 20.6 13.1
Korioume 1963–1995 Niger Niger 345372 1175 975 – 497 – 4.7
 Author's personal copy

Simulation of runoff in West Africa 207

speaking, we find the following relationship among the four

coefficient
(%) after

WHC values: WHC D-W < WHC FAOmin < WHC FAOmn < WHC
Runoff

FAOmax.
1970

2.2

2.3
8.6
3.6
5.5
5.1
2.7
1

Runoff time series

coefficient
(%) before

The data from hydrological stations are taken from the IRD’s
Runoff

1970
6.8

1.8
0.8
2.3
6.6
2.5
3.6
6.9
3.4
21.6

SIEREM (Système d’Information Environnementale sur les

6

Ressources en eaux et leur Modélisation) database using

data from the IRD, national hydrological departments and
Normal annual

various other work (Ouedraogo, 2001; Girard et al., 2002).

after 1970

Experience shows that several runoff series, daily and/or

discharge

monthly, are available for each station. No critique of the

(m3/s)

3.3

series is offered here; such is not the purpose of this paper.

11

12

25
–

677
1
7
9

The approach adopted is to use the source that, to our

knowledge, is most reliable, i.e. the most recently updated
Normal annual

and/or the one subjected to the most critiques, and to fill in

before 1970

its gaps from the other sources. The proportion of missing

discharge

observations ranges from 0% to 45% depending on the catch-

(m3/s)

ment, but we ensured that we had at least ten complete

1
8
9

5
1124
3
12

22
702
234
677

years of measurements (though not necessarily consecutive

years over the entire period of the series). The series of
(mm) 1971–1995

measurements are available from 1922 to 1995, but for

Annual rainfall

the great majority of the stations they do not start until

the 1950s. The average number of years available is 42 years
per station.
–
436
380
727
635
427
577
452
665
689
1353

Method used to compare modelling options

1950–1970

The possible modelling combinations are as follows:

rainfall
Annual

(mm)

871
512
885
795
571
739
603
821
847
1069
1123

• input grids: PET (3 options) and WHC (4 options);

• type of model (2 options).
42444

15361

38871

631549
1283
1420
1056

5391

7505

7460

3840
(km2)
Area

To determine which input data and model provide the

best value of the Nash criterion, 1176 calibration sessions
corresponding to the combinations ‘‘2 types of model * 3
Catchment

types of PET * 4 types of WHC’’ were conducted over the en-

30474
301898

402736

tire set of runoff time series available for the 49 catchments.

Niger
Niger
Niger
Niger
Niger
Niger
Niger
Niger

Identification of optimal modelling options

Diamangou
Goroubi
Gorouol

Gorouol

Identifying the best data-model combination

Dargol
Tapoa
Niger

Sirba
Niger
Niger

Niger
River

The results of the 1176 calibration runs were classified

according to the PET grids, WHC grids and model used. Table
1961–1982
1963–1995
1962–1992
1961–1995
1956–1995
1957–1994
1929–1995
1962–1995

2 shows the median values of the Nash criterion, the percent-

age of negative Nash values and the number of times the PET
Bagoue
Period

Niger
Niger

or WHC grid or the model gives the best Nash value. Table 3
lists the best data-model combinations for each catchment:
Campement W

Garbe Kourou

• We obtain a median Nash value of 68.7 for GR2M and 37.3

for WBM, and the best-fitting calibrations were most
1922–1995
1956–1995
1954–1995

Diongore
Alcongul

often obtained using the former.

Kakassi
Niamey
Station

Tamou
Dolbel

• The three PET grids yield very similar results in terms of

the median Nash coefficient, but the PET PEN grid is most
often found in the best calibrations.
Pankourou

• The FAO’s three WHC grids yield similar values of the

Tossaye
Country

Nash criterion, all of which are better than those

Mopti

Niger

obtained from the WHC D-W grid: median Nash values

are greater than 50 for the FAO grids and only 41.5 for
 Author's personal copy
208
Table 2 Nash value features according to all data-model combinations
Model
Median
% negative Nash
Occurrence of ‘‘best Nash’’
PET FAO
Median 49.7
% negative Nash 6.1
Occurrence of ‘‘best Nash’’ 8 32
WHC D-W
Median 41.5
% negative Nash 7.8
Occurrence of ‘‘best Nash’’ 7 35
the WHC D-W grid. The WHC FAOmax grid appears in the
best calibrations 35 times out of 49.
It can thus be seen that the data-model combination
yielding the best Nash values is ‘‘PET PEN – WHC FAOmax
– GR2M’’.
Spatial representation of results
The results are also presented spatially in order to see
whether they display any geographic pattern. Fig. 3a–c
present the spatial distribution of the ‘‘optimal’’ modelling
options (PET, WHC, type of model) (Table 3):
• Concerning the PET grids, which yield fairly similar
results, their distribution shows no obvious pattern of
spatial organisation. It should be noted, however, that
PET TO – the lowest in absolute value – often appears
to be the ‘‘optimal’’ grid in the north-east area: where
PET is low, runoff will be greater, and this is what is
observed in this region.
• Concerning the WHC grids, the WHC FAOmax grid is best
in the great majority of cases except in this same north-
east area.
• Concerning the model, the GR2M model is best in the vast
majority of cases except in the north-east part of our
study area.
Results of calibration sessions for each catchment
Table 3 presents the optimal grid-model combinations for
each catchment with the corresponding Nash value, as well
as the Nash value obtained with the ‘‘PET PEN – WHC FAOmax
– GR2M’’ combination. The Nash values obtained from these
two grid-model combinations display only slight differences:
• Median Nash values of 73.2 and 72.9 respectively for the
‘‘optimal’’ data-model combination specific to each
catchment and for the ‘‘PET PEN – WHC FAOmax –
GR2M’’ combination.
• In both cases, three catchments have a Nash value less
than 40.
• Fourteen catchments have a Nash value less than 60 for
the ‘‘optimal’’ grid-model combination specific to the
A. Dezetter et al.
GR2M WBM
68.7 37.3
0.2 12.8
48 1
PEN TO
50.2 49.5
6.6 6.4
9
FAOmax FAOmn FAOmin
53 51.9 51.5
5.4 6.1 6.1
0 7
catchment, and 16 catchments for the ‘‘PET PEN –
WHC FAOmax – GR2M’’ combination.
• The differences are thus small, except for the catch-
ments of Alcongui, Dolbel and Wayen, all of which are
in the north-east part of our study area.
Fig. 4 presents the spatial distribution of the correspond-
ing Nash values. The value of the Nash criterion appears to
decrease along the course of the Niger and in the catch-
ments located in the eastern part of our study area.
• Where the catchments of the Niger are concerned, this
decrease can be attributed to their increasingly large sur-
face area; this would require that the model take
account of transfer between grid cells, which our models
do not do. Moreover, the Niger has an inland delta (about
40,000 km2 of flooded areas) that acts as a huge reservoir
and therefore changes the rainfall-runoff relationship of
catchments downstream.
• For the other catchments, the poor Nash values obtained
may be explained as follows: Mahé et al. (2003) have
shown that the runoff coefficients of these catchments
have increased since 1970. Thus, runoff can increase
despite a decline in rainfall. Owing to their structure,
the two models selected cannot reproduce this phenom-
enon unless their calibration parameters and/or ‘‘soil’’
variable (WHC) are changed.
Discussion and conclusion
The study area chosen is interesting in several respects:
West Africa has been and still is experiencing a drought that
is apparently unprecedented within human memory (Servat
et al., 1998; Mahé et al., 2001), characterised among other
things by a sharp decrease in rainfall. What makes this re-
gion attractive from the scientific point of view is that this
decline in rainfall does not necessarily entail a decline in
runoff. Climate change and, more certainly, human activity
have profoundly changed the surface conditions that deter-
mine runoff in the region.
In this paper, we have endeavoured to optimise a model-
ling protocol to simulate monthly runoff in West Africa. We
reach the following conclusions.
 Author's personal copy

Simulation of runoff in West Africa 209

Table 3 Nash value for each catchment using best data-model combinations
Country Station ‘‘Optimal’’ grids: max (Nash) Nash (ETP PEN-WHC FAOmax-GR2M)
PET WHC Modèle Nash
Burkina Faso Batie TO FAOmax GR2M 64.5 64.4
Boromo PEN FAOmin GR2M 78 77.4
Dapola FAO FAOmax GR2M 80.8 80.7
Folonzo PEN FAOmax GR2M 66.8 66.8
Koriziena TO FAOmin GR2M 44 43.4
Nobere PEN FAOmin GR2M 61.6 60.1
Nwokuy TO FAOmax GR2M 57 56.6
Pont d’Ouessa PEN FAOmin GR2M 59.7 58.8
Wayen TO D-W WBM 11.3 0.2
Yendere PEN FAOmax GR2M 73.2 73.2
Côte d’lvoire Akakomoekrou PEN FAOmax GR2M 71.9 71.9
Aniassue PEN FAOmax GR2M 73.3 73.3
Bada PEN FAOmax GR2M 71.5 71.5
Bouafle PEN FAOmax GR2M 72.7 72.7
Fetekro PEN FAOmax GR2M 76.2 76.2
Iradougou PEN FAOmax GR2M 74.1 74.1
Koutoav PEN FAOmax GR2M 72.7 72.7
Mbahiakro PEN FAOmax GR2M 78.5 78.5
Rte Beoumi PEN FAOmax GR2M 72.4 72.4
Serebou PEN FAOmax GR2M 74.8 74.8
Guinée Badera PEN D-W GR2M 76.6 75.7
Baro FAO FAOmax GR2M 87.3 87.2
Bindan FAO D-W GR2M 95 94.3
Faranah TO FAOmax GR2M 79.2 78.8
Kankan PEN FAOmax GR2M 91.2 91.2
Kouroussa FAO FAOmax GR2M 83.8 83.8
Mandiana PEN FAOmax GR2M 89.5 89.5
Ouaran PEN FAOmax GR2M 81.5 81.5
Siguiri PEN FAOmax GR2M 88.3 88.3
Tinkisso PEN FAOmax GR2M 85.7 85.7
Mali Ansongo PEN FAOmax GR2M 43.3 43.3
Banankoro PEN FAOmax GR2M 86.6 86.6
Bougouni PEN FAOmax GR2M 84.4 84.4
Dioila PEN FAOmax GR2M 83.8 83.8
Dire PEN FAOmax GR2M 58.3 58.3
Douna TO FAOmax GR2M 74.4 74.3
Ke Macina PEN FAOmax GR2M 87.6 87.6
Korioume FAO FAOmax GR2M 57 56.7
Mopti FAO FAOmax GR2M 81.4 81.4
Pankourou TO FAOmax GR2M 74.2 72.9
Tossaye PEN FAOmax GR2M 48.8 48.8
Niger Alcongui FAO D-W GR2M 58 50.3
Campement W PEN FAOmin GR2M 44.5 43.9
Diongore TO FAOmin GR2M 51 50.7
Dolbel FAO D-W GR2M 71 49.9
Garbe Kourou PEN D-W GR2M 51.9 48.2
Kakassi TO D-W GR2M 61.6 59.5
Niamey PEN FAOmax GR2M 39.5 39.5
Tamou PEN FAOmin GR2M 39.5 38.7

• Concerning the input grids:
– The three PET formulae give very similar results (the
Nash criterion varies by less than 1%). However, we
selected PET PEN as the best input.
– The FAO’s water holding capacity grids give nearly
equivalent results and seem to perform better than
the CRU grid (a Nash value higher by approximately
10%). This finding may seem paradoxical, since the
CRU grid includes vegetation cover and thus would seem
to contain fuller information than the FAO grids.
– The impact of rainfall grids on values of the Nash crite-
rion was not tested in this paper, but a previous study
 Author's personal copy
210
Figure 3 Spatial distribution of the ‘‘optimal’’ modelling options.
along similar lines provides some indication: Girard
et al. (2002) show that for five catchments in Burkina
Faso, a mean difference of 10% between two rainfall
grids causes a difference of 20% in the Nash criterion
in the modelling exercise. These biases are related to
the quantity and quality of the data as well as the
method used to construct the grids.
• Concerning the type of model, the GR2M model
clearly performs the best over the greater part of the
study area.
• In addition, we tried to determine an ‘‘optimal’’ calibra-
tion period for these models (this stage was not pre-
sented in the paper). The tests show that for the
calibration and validation periods, calibrating the model
with post-1970 data seems to yield better results in the
validation stage for the southern part of our study area.
To the north-east, it seems that the changes in the rain-
fall-runoff relationship are such that the model cannot
account for their consequences. It would be necessary
A. Dezetter et al.
to use two models, one corresponding to the pre-1970
period and another to the post-1970 period.
It is thus very difficult to identify a single combination of
modelling options that can model the functioning of our en-
tire study area, which should eventually stretch from Sene-
gal to Chad (west to east) and from Mali to Gabon (north to
south).
The results reported are worth pursuing in greater depth.
We used only two models which we are accustomed to
using; many other models exist.
Throughout our research, we have been led to ask more
fundamental questions, often related to the limitations of
conceptual hydrologic modelling on a large geographic scale
and over the long term:
• Our work does not consider any uncertainties arising from
errors in input and output data, from the optimisation
method used for the model parameters (although this
method can be considered reliable, especially since there
 Author's personal copy
Simulation of runoff in West Africa
Nash value
< 40
40 - 60
60 - 80
> 80
max = 95
Figure 4 Nash value of the best data-model combination for
each catchment.
are only two parameters to calibrate), from the extent to
which the model matches reality (in response to the ques-
tion of whether a single model can serve in all cases, we
can now affirm that neither GR2M nor WBM can do so,
and that the answer to the question is probably no), or from
the numerical approximations involved in simplifying the
conceptual representation of the catchments (Zin, 2002).
• According to Sorooshian and Gupta (1995), we can esti-
mate a ‘‘region of indifference’’ of the optimised param-
eters. In this region, the values taken on by the parameters
differ from the optimal values without significantly
degrading the match between the simulated hydrograph
and the observational data. Such ‘‘regions of indiffer-
ence’’ reflect the non-uniqueness of the solution obtained
through optimisation of a criterion function. However,
just because changes or trends are observed in the hydro-
climatic time series does not mean that the rainfall-runoff
relationship has changed (Lubès-Niel et al., 2003).
• The input data contain errors more often than is gener-
ally realised, and modellers are not sufficiently critical
of these data, particularly since the errors may be
masked by the calibration of model parameters. It must
also be borne in mind that we are working on a large
scale and that one may well question the validity of a
monthly rainfall or PET datum that is measured at a given
point and attributed to an area of some 2500 km2.
• Calibrating the GR2M model over a period during which
runoff and rainfall were lower overall (i.e. after 1971)
yields a good reproduction of runoff over a different per-
iod, when runoff and rainfall were greater (i.e. before
1970). The converse is not true in our case. Does the
model, when calibrated for a certain range of runoff
and climate data, better reproduce heavy runoff, or is
this phenomenon due to the calibration criterion func-
tion used (Nash), which gives more weight to these high
runoff values?
• The performance of the models was gauged solely
according to the Nash criterion. Perrin et al. (2001) and
Paturel (2002) point out that the assessment of model
211
performance may vary with the formulation of the
selected criteria.
The avenues considered to improve the modelling chain
are to test other models and to construct maps of the use
of models and input datasets, accompanied by probable
indices of the performance of runoff simulations.
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