Elective Course 1

Advanced Hydrology
What is hydrology?
Hydrology is the scientific study of the of the movement, distribution and management of water
on earth and other planet including the water cycle, water resources and environmental water
shed sustainability.

Hydrology also can be defined as the science of water resources engineering which deals with
the study of occurrence, distribution, movement and the properties of water on the earth or
beneath the earth surface or in the atmosphere.

Hydrology is the distribution and movement of water both on and below the earth surface as well
as the impact of human activity on water availability and condition.

Statistical hydrology
It’s a use of statistics science in the field of hydrology to analyze data being provided in order to
predict hydrological phenomena that can happen in a specific time or season.

It has a long history in the analysis of the hydrological data for designing, planning, infilling,
forecasting and specifying better models to assess the scenario of land use and climate change in
the catchment.

Why is statistics important in hydrology?

The analyzed data provide valuable insights into the dynamics of hydrological processes that
represents the hydrological cycle. It’s very important for planning successful and efficient water
resources projects (dams, regulators …) as well as environmental system managements.

Precisely it describes the stationary hypothesis on hydrological time series, extreme value
analysis procedure, the intensity, duration and frequency of those hydrological phenomena.

Statistical hydrology includes so many things:

 Preliminary analysis of hydraulic data

 Probability theory
  Discrete random variables
 Parameter on quintile estimation
 Statistical hypothesis testing
 At site frequency analysis of hydraulic variables
 Correlation and regression

Hydrological models
They are models used in the study of flow and quality of water, it’s a simplification of real world
system (surface water, soil water, wetlands, ground water and estuary) that aids in understanding,
predicting and managing water resources. It’s a mathematical model of fluid flow system and it’s
used to analyze hydraulic behavior.

Types of models:
1. Empirical models (metric model)
 Observation oriented models
 Involve mathematical equations
 Valid only within the boundaries
2. Conceptual methods (parametric models)
 Using semi empirical equations
 Uses calibration
 Have varying degree of complexity
3. Physically based modules (mechanistic model)
 Mathematically idealized
 Uses time and space variables
 Represented by finite difference equation
 It does not require extensive data for calibration

Other models:
1. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)

It’s the successor of (the Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins) model
(SWRRB).SWAT model is a complex physically based model and was designed to test and
forecast the water and sediments circulation and agriculture production.
The model breaks the entire catchment into sub catchments which are further divided into
hydraulic response unit (HRU), land use, vegetation and soil characteristics.

Also daily rainfall data, air temperature, solar radiation, relative air humidity and wind speed are
all inputs used in this model. And the water balance equation which is used in the catchment is:
t
SWt = SWo +∑ ( Rv−Qs−Wseeoage−ET −Qgw )
i=1

Where is:

SWt: humidity of soil

SWo: base humidity

Rv: rainfall volume in mm

Qs: surface runoff

Wseepage: seepage of water from soil to underlying layers

ET: evapotranspiration

Qgw: ground water runoff and its time in days

2. MIKE SHE model (System Hydroloique European)

It’s physically based model and requires extensive physical parameters it was developed in 1990.

The model accounts various process of hydrological cycle such as: precipitation,
evapotranspiration, interception, river flow, saturated ground water flow, unsaturated ground
water flow…etc. and it can simulate:

 Surface and ground water movement and their interaction

 Sediments
 Nutrients and pesticide transport in the model area
 Water quality problems

3. HBV model (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenovdelning model)

It’s an example of semi distributed conceptual model, the entire catchment which is further
divided into sub catchments which are further divided into elevation and vegetation zones.

And it runs on:

Daily and monthly rainfall data, air temperature and evaporation, and the general water balance
equation used are:

P-E-Q = d/dt (Sp + Sm + Uz + LZ + Sl)

Where:

P: precipitation

E: evaporation

Q: runoff

Sp: snow pack

Sm: soil moisture

Uz and Lz: the upper and lower ground water zone and lakes

4. TOP model

It’s a semi distributed conceptual rainfall model that takes the advantage of topographic
information related to runoff generation. It can be used in a single or multiple sub catchments; it
helps in prediction of hydrological behavior of basin. And the major factors considered here are
catchment topography and soil transmissivity.

The main aim of this model is to compute storage deficit or water table depth at any location.

The storage deficit value is a function of topographic index:

(a / tan ß)

Where:

a: drained area per unit contour length

tan ß: the slope of the ground surface at the location

5. VIC model (Variable Infiltration Capacity model)

It’s a semi distributed grid based hydrology model which uses both energy and water balance
equations.

The main inputs are: precipitation, temperature and wind speed.

VIC simulates saturation by considering soil heterogeneity and precipitation. The model is now a
day applied to a number of river basins and helps in predicting climate and land cover changes
over the study area.
System approach to hydrology
System means a set of rules that govern structure or behavior of something. It’s a set of things
working together or an interconnecting network.

System analysis approach generating output from input distributed upon time and space. it
includes the elements of the water cycle that varies over space and time.

x(t) input Ø y(t) output

Where:

Y (t): the model output

X (t): the model input

Ø(x (t)): the system operation and its set of equations which transfer the input to the output.

The major approaches of the hydrological cycle are:

1. Evapotranspiration
2. Condensation
3. Precipitation
4. Infiltration
5. Percolation and runoff

System approach is motivated by the need to establish workable relationships between the
measured parameters in the hydraulic cycle to be used in solving practical problems.
So it’s to formulate a (model) system that is simple enough to understand hydraulic dynamics
and hydro periods for example flow (low flow/high flow).

Flood routing and forecasting:

Floods are known as a natural disaster it occurs when water overflows and submerge the dry
land.

Flood routing is a method that is applied to describe the process in the water course, and it’s used
to predict temporal and spatial variation of a flood waves at one or more points a long a water
course (river channel).
The flow in a channel is considered as a part the inflow:

Qin (t) = Q surface (t) + Q interflow (t) + Q basin (t) + Q channel (t)

Flood routing is classified as either:

 Hydraulic (distributed) computation methods which employ both the equation of

continuity and the equation of motion (momentum conservation)
 Hydrologic (lumped) used for rainfall runoff models

The continuity equation:

Q in dt - Q out dt = dv

Where:

Q in: inflow

Q out: outflow

Dv: changes in storage (volume)

Q in → storage volume →Q out

Flood routing is important in the designing of flood protection measures to estimate how the

Proposed measures will affect the behavior of flood waves in rivers so that adequate protection

And economic solutions maybe found.

Flood forecasting required several types of data:

1. Knowledge about the characteristics of a rivers drainage basins

2. Soil moisture conditions
3. Ground temperature
4. Snow pack
5. Topography
6. Vegetation cover
7. Impermeable land area

This can help to predict how extensive and damaging a flood might become.
Flood forecasting techniques:
1. Lumped & distributed (hydraulic models)
2. Dynamic wave routing (data driven hydrological models)

Factors affecting flood routing:

1. Shape of the drainage
2. Topography
3. Heavy storms
4. Snow fall
5. Vegetation
6. Rock type

Time series analysis Time series analysis

Time series in mathematics can be defined as a series of data points indexed in time order. It’s a
sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. And thus it’s a sequence of desecrate
data.

The 4 component of time series:

1. Secular trend, which describe the movement along the term
2. Seasonal variation, which represent seasonal changes
3. Cyclical fluctuations, which correspond to periodical but not seasonal variation
4. Irregular variations, which are other non-random sources of variation series
Time series analysis:
Is a specific way of analyzing a sequence of data points collected over an interval of time. Where
by analyst record data points at consistent intervals over a set period of time.

Types of time series analysis are:

1. Moving average
2. Exponential smoothing
3. ARIMA (auto regressive integrated moving average)

Time series allows one to what factors influence certain variables from period to period to see
how things changes over time.

Time series can be used in so many areas:

 In statistics
 Signal processing
 Pattern recognition
 Economics
 Mathematical finance
 Weather forecasting
 Earth quake prediction
 Control engineering
 Communication engineering
 Astronomy and many other domain of applied science and engineering
Examples of time series data:

 Weather records
 Economic indicators
 Patient health evolution metrics

They are 5 steps of analyzing time series:

Step 1: visualize the time series

Step 2: stationarize the series

Step 3: find optimal parameters

Step 4: build ARIMA model

Step 5: make predictions

ARIMA model is a class of statistical models for analyzing and forecasting time series data, or
to understand past data or predict future data.
Nile hydrology
Nile is the longest river in the world with a length of 4,132 miles (6,650 kilometers) its basin
includes parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, the democratic republic of Congo, Kenya, Uganda,
South Sudan, Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt.

The River Nile is formed by 3 streams:

1. Blue Nile which flow from the high lands of Ethiopia

2. The white Nile which flows from lake victoria
3. Atbara river which also flow from high lands of Ethiopia

The Nile average discharge is 7000m3/s max depth is 8 – 11 m, width of 2.8 km max, with basin
area of 3.349,000 km2. The dawn stream region of the Nile basin is dominated by deserts,
meanwhile the upstream countries mainly consists of grass land and it includes the vast swamps
in south Sudan (sudd region) and the tropical and the subtropical vegetation in the Ethiopian high
lands.

The Aswan high dam completed in 1970 south of Egypt near the Sudanese border was
constructed to improve agriculture productivity, generate electricity and manage seasonal flood
in the lower Nile region (delta area). Meanwhile they are other 3 major dams and numerous
smaller ones within the basin. (the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam, Aswan high dam, Merowe
dam, Owen falls dam, Sennar dam, Jabal Aulia dam, Roseires dam, and other small ones
(Khashm al Girba and Selit dam)) all in total around 25 hydroelectric dams in the basin.

The geographical features of the Nile basin are diverse to include snowcapped and forested
mountains, extensive wetlands and barren deserts.

Hydrology of river Nile is influenced by both climate and geography throughout the basin, the
discharge of the Nile depends on the flow of the river tributaries, also it depends on rainfall and
climate pattern, hydraulic characteristics of channels, lakes and wetlands, vegetation and human
influences such as dams.

Main quantity of rainfall falling within the Nile basin is lost due to evapotranspiration, seepage
and overflow into wetlands (Sudd wetlands), approximately half of the water entering the Sudd
is lost to overbank, spillage and evapotranspiration.

High lands of Ethiopia leads to seasonal discharge in the Blue Nile, Atbara and Sobat Rivers
those sources are responsible for the annual Nile flood and contribute about 85% of all the water
in the main Nile.

Equatorial plateau contribute smaller but more consistent.

Nile river system can be divided to 3 sections:

1. The upper river basin is characterized by steep gradient and erosion process that
contribute to down stream sediment transport
2. Middle river system characterized by gentle slope, large river channel, wider flood plain
and greater degree of river meandering than in the upper river basin
3. Lower river and flood plain section of a river system (extending to the delta) has a very
low slope

North of Cairo the river Nile divided into 2 branches:

 Rosetta
 Damietta

Nile river delta is the area where the mouth of the river flows into Mediterranean Sea, so it
contains a mixture of fresh and saline water.

Before the construction of Aswan dam, Nile River flooded every year and brought high water
and natural nutrients and minerals that enriched the fertile soil in the Nile delta and made it ideal
for farming.

Construction of several dams within the Nile basin has changed the hydrology of the river Nile,
the ecosystem and human activities within the basin.

Reservoir sedimentation
Reservoir is an artificial lake where water is stored. It’s an enlarged body of water created using
a dam or a lock.

Most reservoir are formed by constructing dams across rivers, its most commonly an enlarged
natural or artificial lake created using a dam to store fresh water.

Dam is a structure built across a river or a lake outlet to hold back water and to raise its level.

Reservoirs are used mostly for:

1. Water supply for domestic/irrigation use
2. Hydropower
3. Flood mitigation/control
4. Recreation
5. Low flow regulation
 6. Navigation

Sedimentation is a process whereby soil particles are eroded and transported by flowing water
or other transporting media and deposited as layers of solid particles in water bodies such as
reservoirs and rivers. It’s a filling of the reservoir with sediment carried into the reservoir by
streams.

Causes of reservoir sedimentation:

Generally soil erosion is the major cause of the reservoir sedimentation, and this causes can be
classified into 2:

1. Natural causes
2. Anthropogenic causes

Natural causes can be classified to:

1. Geomorphology, and this is the configuration of the land surface, and it includes the
location, size and shape of those features such as hills, ridges, valleys, streams and lakes.
2. Hydrology, to be successful, a dam and reservoir project must have an adequate
continuous supply of water. The annual rainfall, the ratio of watershed area to reservoir
area and the volume of the stream of the year must be known.
3. Hydrogeology, this to determine whether ground water would contribute to the reservoir
or whether the reservoir will lose waster to the ground water system.
4. Geology, knowledge of the geological situation is essential as a basis for sound
engineering especially in investigation of dam or reservoir sites. Any failure to discover
minor geological detail maybe costly and hazardous.
5. Soil characteristics, type of soil and its properties such as porosity and permeability can
cause or lead to erosion within and around the reservoir.

Anthropogenic causes:

1. Tillage practices, wrong tillage practices can loose soil thereby leading to washing away
of the top soil.
2. Overgrazing, too much grazing of vegetation by animals can lead to exposure of the soil
thereby causing erosion
3. Mining and logging, mining activities can lead to erosion due to wearing off the surface
of the soil through survey and excavation as well
Effects of reservoir sedimentation:
Reservoir sedimentation has so many impacts:

1. impacts on generation

Loss of reservoir storage reduces flexibility in generation and affects the reliability of water
supply. Without storage hydropower facilities entirely dependent on seasonal flows, these flows
might not occur when energy is needed.

2. Impact on stability of dams

Significant reduction in acceleration occurs when sediments are partially saturated. For rigid
foundation, hydrodynamic pressure decreases slightly at the dam base when sediments are fully
saturated but increase when partially saturated.

Partial saturation will increase the systems response to horizontal ground movement.

3. Impact on discharge capability

As sedimentation continuous, clogging of spill way tunnels or other conduits may occur.
Reduction of spill way capacity can occur as a result of the loss of approach depth when
sediment front reaches the dam.

4. Impact on equipment

Sediments can damage turbines and other mechanical equipment through erosion of the oxide
coating on the blades. Sustained erosion can lead to extended shut down time for maintenance or
replacement.

5. Impact on environment

Any dam will cause some degree of sediment starvation downstream. Increase in sediment
concentration can create turbid waters with a smaller euphotic zone; this can decrease plant
productivity, negatively impact the fish and bird species.

Also sediment is a primary carrier of suspended pollutants such as nitrogen, phosphorus and
heavy metals. Sediments may have environmental effects that can persist for decades.

Other effects are:

1. Reduced storage capacity
2. Retrogressive deposition
3. Reduced availability of water for irrigation
4. Shortening of life of reservoir
Mitigation for reservoir sedimentation:
It’s necessary to monitor the sedimentation rates in the existing reservoirs at regular intervals to
help in planning and executing suitable remedial measures for controlling sedimentation in order
to prolong a life of the reservoir and its benefits.

The mitigations for reservoir sedimentation are:

1. silting control in a reservoir:

The various methods which are adopted can be divided into 2 parts:

a. pre-constructing measures
b. post-constructing measures

a. pre-constructing measures are the measures which are adopted before and during the execution
of the project, they are as follows:

1. selection of dam site

2. construction of dam in stages
3. construction of check dams
4. vegetation screens
5. construction of under-sluices in the dam below the dead storage level

b. post-construction measures are the ones undertaken during the operation of the project and
they are as follows:

1. Removal of post flood water

2. Mechanical stirring of the sediment

3. Adopting erosion control and soil conservation measures in the catchment area and this
includes: plantation, control grazing, terracing benching, cover cropping like grassing, etc..

2. Reduce sediment inflow

3. Route sedimentation

4. Sediment removal

5. Afforestation

6. Check dam

7. Desilting
Low flow hydrology
Low flow can be defined as the flow of water in a stream during prolonged dry weather (world
metrological organization) and its seasonal phenomenon that affects any river.

Factors affecting flow:

1. Rainfall and snow melt
2. Land use/land cover (the permeability or imperviousness of surrounding land)
3. Water control structures (reservoir and dams)
4. Water discharge (from industries, utilities and waste water treatment plants)
5. Geological characteristics (ground water flow and stream slope)

In most cases the causes of the low flows have been ground water abstractions which have
resulted in ground water seepage to the surface being reduced.

The effects of low flow on water quality:

Low flow aggravates the effects of water pollution. However during a low flow event, there is
less water available to dilute effluent loadings resulting in higher in stream concentration of
pollutants.

When there is low flow, fine sediment can settle out easily, oxygen levels may decrease and the
river channel becomes narrower, and this can affect fish and other aquatic life.

The velocity of river is determined by many factors including; the shape of its channel, the
gradient of the slope the river moves along, the volume of water that the river carries and the
amount of friction caused by rough edges within the river bed.

Evaluating low flow simulations are always done by using hydrological models. (Low flow
forecasting) using hydrographs.

Anthropogenic impacts on low flow: (indirect)

1. Ground water abstructions within the sub-surface area
2. Artificial drainage of valley bottom soils for agricultural or building construction purpose
3. Changes to the vegetation regime in valley bottom areas through clearing or planting
4. Afforestation of a whole catchment or parts
5. Deforestation
Direct impacts:
1. Direct river abstraction for industrial, agricultural, or municipal purposes
2. Direct effluent flows into rivers channels from industrial or municipal sources
3. Irrigation return flows from agricultural fields
4. Construction of dams on subsequence regulation of a river flow regime

Low flow measures and indices are conducted through:

1. Defining the low flow domain
2. Flow duration curve and low flows
3. Low flow frequency analysis
4. Continuous low-flow events and deficit volumes
5. Base flow and base flow measures
6. Recession analysis (during dry weather when water in the catchment is lost by
evapotranspiration and ground water discharge into the stream)
7. Interaction between low flow indices

Low flow indices are:

1. The 7Q10 flow:

This can be interpreted as the 7-day low flow with a 10-years return period, using daily discharge
data. Q is the discharge which can be expected

2. Other 7Q low flows:

7Q1, 7Q2, 7Q5, 7Q20 and 7Q25

3. Flow duration indices:

The design low flow range of a flow duration curve is the 70% - 90% range or Q70 to Q99 range

Ground water exploration

Ground water is a prime natural resource in the earth; it’s not only supporting all types of life
forms to exist in the earth but also helps in the growth of human civilization, it quenches thirst
and fulfills all the house hold demands it’s also used for irrigation purposes.
Ground water is the water present beneath the earth’s surface in rock and soil pore spaces and in
the fractures of rock formations.

The main source of ground water is frequently precipitation. Water falling on the surface is
absorbed into the ground and slowly filters.

Ground water can be found in sand or gravel areas in the bottom of valleys, natural springs and
near streams. It’s the largest source of fresh water for mankind and it’s often hidden deep down
in aquifers, permeable rocks and sediments and its extracted using pumping wells.

The largest storage of ground water is in North Africa located in the large sedimentary basin in
Libya, Algeria and Chad. And the amount of storage in those basins is equivalent to 75m
thickness of water across that area.

Characteristics of ground water

1. Weak turbidity
2. Constant temperature and chemical composition
3. Overall absence of oxygen

Sources of ground water

They are main 2 sources of ground water:

1. Meteoric water

This is the main source of ground water

2. Connate water

Water contained in pores and cavities of sedimentary rocks under seas and lakes

Methods for ground water exploration:

They are various surfaces geophysical techniques are used in ground water exploration:

1. Electrical resistivity method

2. Seismic refractive method
3. Magnetic method
4. Radio activity method
 5. Gravity method
6. Electromagnetic method

Ground water usually found in 3 zones:

1. Unsaturated zone
2. Capillary fringe
3. Saturated zone

Ground water is considered as a renewable resource, ground water get replenished after every
rainfall and it’s called the rainfall recharge.

Ground water is not uniformly distributed everywhere, it differs from one rock formation to
another.

Exploring ground water:

Ground water exploration is a typical task of a hydro geologist or an engineer, identifying its
location of its availability is a challenging task this requires a basic understanding of its position
in the subsurface geological setup.

Modeling of ground water and aquifers:

Ground water models are computer models of ground water flow system and are used by
hydrologists and hydro geologists and they are used to simulate and predict aquifers conditions.

A ground water flow model is a mathematical representation of ground water flow through an
aquifer which is composed of saturated sediments and rocks. This model integrates and assures
consistency among aquifer properties, recharge, discharge and ground water levels.

Models are useful in 4 ways:

1. Models integrate and assures consistency among aquifers properties, recharge, discharge
and ground water level
2. A model can be used to estimate flows and aquifers characteristics for which direct
measurement are not available
3. Models can be used to simulate response of the aquifer under hypothetical conditions
 4. Model can identify sensitive areas where additional hydrologic information could
improve understanding

Types of models:
1. Conceptual models
2. Mathematical models
3. Analytical models
4. Numerical models

One of the most widely used models in the world for simulating ground water flow is
(MODFLOW) the moduler finite-difference ground water flow model, it’s a computer program
for simulating common features in ground water system, and it was constructed in early 1980s.

MODFLOW is designed to simulate aquifer systems in which:

1. Saturated-flow conditions exist

2. Darcy’s law applies
3. The density of ground water is constant
4. The principal directions of horizontal hydraulic conductivity or transmissivity do not vary
within the system

Ground water is transported through aquifers because of 2 main reasons:

1. Gravity
2. Pressure

Global water distribution estimation

Water source Water volume in cubic miles Percent of total water
Ground water 5,614,000 1.69
Fresh water 2,526,000 0.76
Saline water 3,088,000 0.93
Soil moisture 3,959 0.001
Model application process:
Formulation of objectives → review and interpretation of available data → model
conceptualization → code selection → field data collection → input data preparation →
collaboration and sensitivity analysis → predictive runs → uncertainty analysis