NUMERICAL MODELLING IN HYDROLOGY

What is Hydrology?

➔ Hydrology is the scientific study of the movement, distribution, and quality of water on Earth and other

planets, including the water cycle, water resources and environmental watershed sustainability. A

practitioner of hydrology is a hydrologist, working within the fields of Earth or environmental science,

physical geography, geology or civil and environmental engineering.

 Why Hydrological Models are Needed ?

➔ The catchment hydrologic models have been developed for many different reasons

and therefore have many different forms. However, they are in general designed to meet one of the two

primary objectives. One objective of catchment modelling is to gain a better understanding of the hydrologic

phenomena operating in a catchment and of how changes in the catchment may affect these phenomena.

➔ Another objective of catchment modelling is the generation of synthetic sequences of hydrologic data for

facility design or for use in forecasting. They are also providing valuable for studying the potential impacts of

changes in land use or climate. The variety of uses and the rapid increase both in scientific understanding

and in technical support, from data collection systems and computer technology.
➔ Hydrological models are simplified, conceptual representations of a part of the hydrologic cycle. Two

major types of hydrological models can be distinguished :

● Models based on data. These models are black box systems, using mathematical and statistical concepts

to link a certain input (for instance rainfall) to the model output (for instance runoff). Commonly used

techniques are regression, transfer functions, and system identification.

● Models based on process descriptions. These models try to represent the physical processes observed in

the real world. Typically, such models contain representations of surface runoff, subsurface flow,

evapotranspiration, and channel flow, but they can be far more complicated.
Classification of Hydrologic Models
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND

STOCHASTIC MODELLING
 Introduction

This monograph deal with problems and approaches used in modeling hydrologic systems and

components. In general, they describe the physical processes involved in the movement of water

onto, over, and through the soil surface. Quite often the hydrologic problems we face do not require

a detailed discussion of the physical process, but only a time series representation of these

processes. Stochastic models may be used to represent, in simplified form, these hydrologic time

series.
 Time Series

The measurements or numerical values of any variable that changes with time constitute a time series. In

many instances, the pattern of changes can be ascribed to an obvious cause and is readily understood and

explained, but if there are several causes for variation in the time series values, it becomes difficult to identify the

several individual effects.

 The complete observed series, y(t), can

therefore be expressed by:

y( t ) = y1 ( t ) + y2 ( t ) + y3 ( t ) + y4 ( t )

The first two terms are deterministic in form and

can be identified and quantified fairly easily; the last two

are stochastic with major random elements, and some

minor persistence effects, less easily identified and

quantified.
Properties of Time Series

The purpose of a stochastic model is to represent important statistical properties of one or more

time series. Indeed, different types of stochastic models are often studied in terms of the statistical

properties of time series they generate. Examples of these properties include: trend, serial correlation,

covariance, cross-correlation, etc.

 Stationary time series Non-stationary time series White noise time series

E( Xt ) = m E( Xt ) = mt E( Xt ) = m

Var( Xt ) = s 2 Var( Xt ) = s 2
Var( Xt ) = s 2

Cov( Xt , Xt + L ) = lL Cov( Xt , Xt + L ) = 0 ; for all L ¹ 0

Cov( Xt , Xt + L ) = lL,t
 Some Stochastic Models

Autoregressive models

First order Markov process with periodicity: Thomas - Fiering model

Moving average models

ARMA models

Daily data generation models

Miscellaneous models
 The Uses of Stochastic Models

To make predictions of frequencies of extreme events

For the investigation of system operating rules

To provide short-term forecasts

To "extend" records of short duration, by correlation

To provide synthetic sequences of basin input

 EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN HYDROLOGIC MODELS

Precise estimation is important for:

● study of climate change

● evaluation of water resources
● crop water requirement managemant
● drought forecasting
● effective water resources development

Land evotranspiration process is invisible and difficult to measure precisely and

needs to determined by estimation.
 In general, techniques for estimating potential evapotranspiration are
based on one or more atmospheric variables, like solar or net radiation and
air temperature and humidity, or some measurement related to these
variables, like pan evaporation. Because climatic variables usually do not
vary significantly over small areas, evapotranspiration estimates can often
be transferred some distance with minimal error. For most hydrologic
applications, this is necessary because data are rarely available on the area
where needed.
1 Climatological methods
1 Air temperature-based methods
2 Solar radiation-based methods
3 The Penman combination method
4 Penman-Monteith method

2 Micrometeorological models
1 The mass-transfer-based methods
2 Aerodynamic method
3 Bowen ratio-energy balance method

3 The pan method

1 Climatological Methods

1.1 Air temperature-based methods :

In certain regions of the world, meteorological and climatological data may be quite limited.
Models based almost solely on air temperature may be used in such cases to provide estimates of ET.
The temperature methods are some of the earliest methods for estimating ET

ΕΤ = cTa

ΕΤ = c1dlT(c2-c3h)

in which ET is potential evapotranspiration, T is air temperature, h is a humidity term, c1, c2, c3 are
constants, dl is day-length.
1.2 Solar radiation-based methods

The radiation-based approach has had wide application in estimation of potential

evapotranspiration (ET) of land areas. Many empirical formulae have been derived based on this
approach
Empirical radiation-based equations for estimating potential evaporation generally are based on the
energy balance.
Most radiation-based equations take the form:

λET = Cr(wRs)

where λ is the latent heat of vaporisation (in calories per gram), ET is the potential evapotranspiration
(in mm per day), Rs is the total2solar radiation (in calories per cm2 per day), Rn is the net radiation (in
calories per cm per day), w is the temperature and altitude-dependent weighting factor, and Cr is a
coefficient depending on the relative humidity and wind speed.
1.3 The Penman combination method

Penman was among the first to develop a method considering the factors of both energy supply
and turbulent transport of water vapour away from an evaporating surface. The physical principles
combine the two approaches, i.e. the mass-transfer and the energy balance.
In a simplified energy balance equation:

H = Eo + Q

1.4 Penman-Monteith method

The Penman combination method was further developed by many researchers, an excellent work
was done by Monteith who introduced resistance terms and arrived at the following equation for ET from
surfaces with either optimal or limited water supply:
2.2 Micrometeorological Methods
2.1 The mass-transfer-based methods

The mass-transfer method is one of the oldest methods and is still an attractive
method in estimating free water surface evaporation because of its simplicity and
reasonable accuracy. The mass-transfer methods are based on the Dalton equation which
for free water surface can be written as:

ET0 = C(es-ea) (4.40)

where ET0 is free water-surface evaporation, es is the saturation vapor pressure at the
temperature of the water surface, ea is the actual vapor pressure in the air, and C is an

empirically determined constant involving some function of windiness.

4.2.3 The Pan Method

Measured evaporation from a shallow pan of water is one of the oldest and
common methods for estimating ET.Pans are inexpensive, relatively easy to maintain and
simple to operate. In humid regions, pans may also give realistic estimates of potential
evapotranspiration, ET.

Given some standardization of pan shape, environmental setting, and operation,

good correlations have been developed between pan evaporation, Ep, and potential
evaporation, ET, by a simple relation

ET =CETEp

where CET is a coefficient.

The values of CET vary normally from 0.5 to 1.0.

What is runoff?

When rain or snow falls onto the earth, it just doesn't sit there, it starts moving
according to the laws of gravity.

Meteorological factors affecting runoff:

● Type of precipitation (rain, snow, sleet, etc.)
● Rainfall intensity
● Rainfall amount
● Rainfall duration
● Distribution of rainfall over the watersheds
● Direction of storm movement
● Antecedent precipitation and resulting soil moisture
● Other meteorological and climatic conditions that affect evapotranspiration, such
as temperature, wind, relative humidity, and season.
Physical characteristics affecting runoff:

● Land use
● Vegetation
● Soil type
● Drainage area
● Basin shape
● Elevation
● Slope
● Topography
● Direction of orientation
● Drainage network patterns
● Ponds, lakes, reservoirs, sinks, etc. in the basin, which prevent or alter
runoff from continuing downstream
Infiltration Models

● SCS Model (Jury, et al. 1991)

● Philip's Two-Term Model(1957)

● Layered Green Ampt Model(Bouwer 1969, Fok 1970, Moore 1981, Ahuja

and Ross 1983)

● Explicit Green Ampt Model(1994)

● Constant Flux Green Ampt Model

● Infiltration/Exfiltration Model(1978)
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