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C. P. Kumar
Scientist ‘E1’
Email: cpkumar@yahoo.com
Webpage: http://www.angelfire.com/nh/cpkumar/
Presentation Outline
Groundwater in Hydrologic Cycle
Why Groundwater Modelling is needed?
Mathematical Models
Modelling Protocol
Model Design
Calibration and Validation
Groundwater Flow Models
Groundwater Modelling Resources
Groundwater in Hydrologic Cycle
Types of Terrestrial Water
Surface
Water
Soil
Moisture
Ground water
Pores Full of Combination of Air and Water
Unsaturated Zone / Zone of Aeration / Vadose
(Soil Water)
Sustains flows
in streams
Groundwater Concerns?
pollution
groundwater mining
subsidence
Problems with groundwater
Groundwater overdraft / mining / subsidence
Waterlogging
Seawater intrusion
Groundwater pollution
Why Groundwater Modelling is needed?
Groundwater
,The model will provide the response of the aquifer (water levels
concentrations, etc.) to the implementation of any management
.alternative
We should have a POLICY that dictates management objectives
.and constraints
Obviously, we also need information about the water demand
interaction with other ,)quantity and quality, current and future(
parts of the water resources system, economic information, sources
...,of pollution, effect of changes on the environment---springs, rivers
GROUND WATER MODELING
WHY MODEL?
A Powerful Tool
for furthering our understanding
of hydrogeological systems
• Groundwater flow
calculate both heads and flow
• Governing Equation
(Darcy’s law + water balance equation)
with head (h) as the dependent variable
• Boundary Conditions
• Initial conditions (for transient problems)
Derivation of the Governing Equation
R x y Q
z
x
y
1. Consider flux (q) through REV
2. OUT – IN = - Storage
3. Combine with: q = -K grad h
Law of Mass Balance + Darcy’s Law =
Governing Equation for Groundwater Flow
---------------------------------------------------------------
h h h
( Kx ) ( Ky ) ( Kz ) 0
x x y y z z
h h h
( Kx ) ( Ky ) ( Kz ) R *
x x y y z z
General governing equation for transient,
heterogeneous, and anisotropic conditions
h h h h
( Kx ) ( Ky ) ( Kz ) Ss R*
x x y y z z t
Specific Storage
Ss = V / (x y z h)
h
h
S=V/Ah
S = Ss b Confined aquifer
Unconfined aquifer
Specific yield Storativity
h h h
2D confined: (Tx ) (Ty ) S R
x x y y t
2D unconfined: h h h
(hKx ) (hKy ) S R
x x y y t
• Numerical Solutions
Finite difference methods
Finite element methods
K1
K2
K3
K4
Finite difference models
may be solved using:
• a computer program
(e.g., a FORTRAN program)
Analytical
Numerical
Modelling Protocol
Establish the Purpose of the Model
Develop Conceptual Model of the System
Select Governing Equations and Computer Code
Model Design
Calibration
Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Model Verification
Prediction
Predictive Sensitivity Analysis
Presentation of Modeling Design and Results
Post Audit
Model Redesign
Purpose - What questions do you want the
model to answer?
Steady/Unsteady..1, 2, or 3-D;
…Heterogeneous/Isotropic…..Instantaneous/Continuous
Calibration
Show that Model can reproduce field-
measured heads and flow (concentrations if
contaminant transport)
Results in parameter data set that best
represents field-measured conditions.
Calibration Sensitivity Analysis
Uncertainty in Input Conditions
Determine Effect of Uncertainty on
Calibrated Model
Model Verification
Use Model to Reproduce a Second Set of
Field Data
Prediction
Desired Set of Conditions
Sensitivity Analysis
Effect of uncertainty in parameter values and
future stresses on the predicted solution
Presentation of Modelling Design
and Results
Effective Communication of
Modeling Effort
Graphs, Tables, Text etc.
Postaudit
New field data collected to determine if
prediction was correct
Site-specific data needed to validate
model for specific site application
Model Redesign
Include new insights into system
behavior
NUMERICAL MODELING
DISCRETIZE
Validate
Sensitivity
Predictions
NUMERICAL MODELING
Model Design
MODELs NEED
Geometry
Material Properties (K, S, T, Φe, R, etc.)
Boundary Conditions (Head, Flux, Concentration etc.)
• Conceptual Model
• Selection of Computer Code
• Model Geometry
• Grid
• Boundary array
• Model Parameters
• Boundary Conditions
• Initial Conditions
• Stresses
Concept Development
• Developing a conceptual model is the initial
and most important part of every modelling
effort. It requires thorough understanding of
hydrogeology, hydrology and dynamics of
groundwater flow.
Conceptual Model
A descriptive representation
of a groundwater system that
incorporates an interpretation of the
geological & hydrological conditions.
Generally includes information about
the water budget. May include
information on water chemistry.
Selection of Computer Code
• Which method will be used depends largely
on the type of problem and the knowledge of
the model design.
• Flow, solute, heat, density dependent etc.
• 1D, 2D, 3D
Model Geometry
• Model geometry defines the size and the
shape of the model. It consists of model
boundaries, both external and internal, and
model grid.
Boundaries
• Physical boundaries are well defined
geologic and hydrologic features that
permanently influence the pattern of
groundwater flow (faults, geologic units,
contact with surface water etc.)
Boundaries
• Hydraulic boundaries are derived from the
groundwater flow net and therefore
“artificial” boundaries set by the model
designer. They can be no flow boundaries
represented by chosen stream lines, or
boundaries with known hydraulic head
represented by equipotential lines.
HYDRAULIC BOUNDARIES
BUT
NO-FLOW BOUNDARY
Neither HEAD nor FLUX is
Specified. Can represent a
Physical boundary or a flow
Line (Groundwater Divide)
SPECIFIED HEAD OR
CONSTANT HEAD BOUNDARY
h = constant
q is determined by the model.
And may be +ve or –ve according
to the hydraulic gradient developed
TYPES OF MODEL BOUNDARY (cont’d)
Objetivos de Calibracion
Error
Valor de calibracion
0.80 m
20.24 m
Objetivos con
errores pequeños .
Objetivos con errores
grandes.
Objetivos usados en usados
en Calibracion de Modelos
• La carga observada en un pozo de observacion,
es conocido como el objetivo .
q = KI
H1
H2
En este ejemplo, la descarga
hayuda calibrar R.
Comentarios sobre Calibration
• La calibracion no es unica .
Incertidumbre involucra :
Parametros
Sensitivity analysis
Stochastic simulation
How do we “validate” a model so that
we have confidence that it will make
accurate predictions?
Modeling Chronology
1960’s Flow models are great!
“Verification”
requires an independent set of field data
USGS code
Finite Difference Model
• MODFLOW 88
• MODFLOW 96
• MODFLOW 2000
MODFLOW
HST3D
Visual MODFLOW
HAPPY MODELLING