RISK MANAGEMENT FOR ENERGY

INFRASTRUCTURE
Module 6: Climate change adaptation
Prepared by Jorge Paz ( Tecnalia)
 1.- Presentation of this module

Main objectives

• Discuss the concept of climate change adaptation and its need.

• Understand the concept of climate risk and its components.
• Describe different approaches for addressing adaptation assessing climate risks

Operational objectives:
• Contextualize the risk assessment
• Operationalize the assessment of climate risks.
• Stablish the steps for defining and implementing an adaptation strategy or pathway.

Recommended resources:
This lesson doesn’t include practical exercises, so just a computer for reviewing the presentation is needed.
 1.- Presentation of this module

Additional learning materials:

• Copernicus Climate Change User Learning Service. Interesting portal with learning materials (lessons, pathways, etc.) The next lessons are
particularly interesting
• C3S ULS: Climate Projections
• Uncertainty, Robustness and Confidence
• Using climate models for climate scenarios
• MOOCs from Copernicus:
• https://www.mooc.copernicus.eu
• Primavera project: The most interesting learning resourcers are the
• Climate fact-shets
• weADAPT: SENSES Toolkit for Climate Change Adaptation: collection of user-centred visualization tools of climate change scenario
knowledge
• Climate Adapt: The Adaptation Support Tool – Getting started: this tool is intended to assist policy makers and coordinators on the
national level in developing, implementing, monitoring and evaluating climate change adaptation strategies and plans

NOTE: if not indicated, all links accessed on February 2021. Contact me if they don´t work or if you are interested in any particular topic.
 1.- Presentation of this module

Contents:

1.- Presentation of this module

2.- The concept of climate risk
3.- Climate change adaptation
 2.- The concept of climate risk

The IPCC framework for risks assessment and adaptation

The IPCC has proposed different approaches for Climate Change Adaptation. In the last one, the concept of Risk plays a central
role, integrating vulnerability, hazards and exposure.

Illustration of the core

concepts of the WGII AR5. Risk
of climate-related impacts
results from the interaction of
climate-related hazards
(including hazardous events and
trends) with the vulnerability
and exposure of human and
natural systems. Changes in
both the climate system (left)
and socioeconomic processes
including
adaptation and mitigation
(right) are drivers of hazards,
exposure, and vulnerability. [1]
Conceptual approach for the evaluation of Climate change impacts in the Fith
Assesment Report of IPCC

Source: IPCC, 2014: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): WGII: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policy Makers.
 2.- The concept of (climate) risk

The IPCC framework for risks assessment and adaptation

This is not the first approach proposed by IPCC, but it is the current reference for climate change risk assessment and
adaptation. With some peculiarities, an analogy with the “Classical approach” for risk assessment.

Marco metodológico Marco metodológico Planteamiento clásico Comparison between the

propuesto por el 4º propuesto por el 5º para el análisis del methodological frameworks
informe de evaluación informe de evaluación riesgo (probabilidad y and the concepts used for the
del IPCC (IPCC 4 AR) del IPCC (IPCC 5 AR) consecuencia) vulnerability analysis in the
Fourth and Fifth IPCC
Exposición Amenaza Assessment Reports and the
Probabilidad traditional risk analysis.
Adapted from [1] Example of a classical matrix for risks
assessment as a combination of the
Sensibilidad Exposición impact (or consequences) with
Capacidad adaptativa Vulnerabilidad likelihood (probability)
Consecuencia

Vulnerabilidad Caution: If you are reading a document related to climate

Riesgo Riesgo change before 2014 the concepts of Vulnerability and
Exposure could be completely different to those presented in
the previous slides.

Source: [1] Consorcio Tecnalia - IH Cantabria. 2020: Guía para el análisis detallado de riesgo climático.
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Hazard

The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other
health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and
environmental resources. [1]

We can divide hazards related with climate

change in two main categories: Extreme or
acute events (storms, heat waves, etc.) and
changes in the trends and patterns (gradual
increase of temperatues, sea level rise, etc.)

Source: [1] IPCC 2018: Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC. Glosary
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Exposure

The presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services, and resources; infrastructure; or
economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected [1].

A shark near the beach is a hazard, because Swimming with sharks is a risk. You
potentially (if somebody swims) could be damaged. can be damaged. (but now you
For the man in the beach (not-exposed) it is not have a real probability of damage.
really a risk.

Hazards are independent of your vulnerability, etc. (in the example above the shark is the same):

Source: [1] IPCC 2018: Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC. Glosary
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Exposure

In a practical way: we can operationalize the concept as binary (the figure on the left show a man exposed / unexposed to shark
attack) or according to a degree of exposure (beach on the left 100% is exposed to sun burn, only 50% on the right).

Unexposed Exposed 100% exposed 50% exposed

 2.- The concept of climate risk

Vulnerability

The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements
including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. [1]
High I am not
vulnerabili protected I´m a very fast Shark
ty without preference
regarding humanoid
figures. I attack them all
equally.

My iron suit
protects me

Low
vulnerabili
ty

Source: [1] IPCC 2018: Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC. Glosary
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Vulnerability Which diver is more

vulnerable to this new
Vulnerability is related to the specific threat that we are studying. hazard (shark)?

Low I can swim

vulnerabili fast and
scape I have no preference
ty regarding humanoid
figures. I attack them all
equally….but I'm very
slow

I´m slow and I

can´t scape

High
vulnerabili
ty

Source: [1] IPCC 2018: Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC. Glosary
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Vulnerability

One way of handling vulnerability in a quantitative way is using relations between climate and performance, damage,
probability of failure, etc.

Damage curve: Damage per square meter flooded for South Example of relation between climate variable and
American residential buildings [1] performance of infrastructure: Power curve for
SWT-20Kw wind turbine [2]

Source:
[1] Jan Huizinga et al for the JRC. 2017: Global flood depth-damage functions. Methodology and the database with guidelines
[2] Senwei Energy Technology Inc.: SWT-20Kw wind turbine
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Vulnerability

…but sometimes you may stablish the vulnerability quantitatively using statistical approaches or even qualitative or
semiqualitative approaches. In this table, where are the threats
(sharks), in the columns or in the
rows?
Climate risk
assessment with a
quantitative
evaluation of the
vulnerability:
relation between
climate variable
(runoff) and
performance (energy
generation) based on
statistical analysis

Example of vulnerability assessment considering a qualitative approach

(value from 0 to 3 assigned by expert judgment)

Source: [1] Fundación Canal. 2015: Agua, energía y cambio climático. Tecnologías de generación eléctrica a partir de la disponibilidad de recursos hídricos en escenarios de cambio
climático
[2] Koen Rademaekers et al (ECORYS) for European Commission. 2011: Investment needs for future adaptation measures in EU nuclear power plants and other electricity generation
technologies due to effects of climate change
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Risk

The potential for adverse consequences where something of value is at stake and where the occurrence and degree of an
outcome is uncertain. In the context of the assessment of climate impacts, the term risk is often used to refer to the potential
for adverse consequences of a climate-related hazard, or of adaptation or mitigation responses to such a hazard, on lives,
livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, services (including ecosystem
services), and infrastructure. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability (of the affected system), its exposure over time (to
the hazard), as well as the (climate-related) hazard and the likelihood of its occurrence.

We can calculate the risk according to the IPCC scheme…

Source: [1] IPCC 2018: Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC. Glosary
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Risk

… but there are other approaches:

Approach for risk assessment included in the Approach for risk assessment included in IVAVIA. Guideline Impact and Vulnerability
The Vulnerability Sourcebook Risk Supplement [2] Analysis of Vital Infrastructures and built-up Areas [1]

Source:
[1] Erich Rome et al. 2018: IVAVIA: Impact and Vulnerability Analysis of Vital Infrastructures and Built-Up Area
[2] GIZ: The Vulnerability Sourcebook. Risk Supplement
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Risk

In any case risk is operationalized as an aggregated statistical indicator of the potential impact that one or more exposed
elements may suffer due to the action of one or more threats. It combines impacts, vulnerability and probability of occurrence
in a single number that summarizes the situation of a system or element. Sometimes a qualitative approach is used:

Risk = f (threat, exposure,

vulnerability)

Example of qualitative evaluation of

risk [1]

Source: [1] Hai-MinLyu et al. 2018: Flood risk assessment in metro systems of mega-cities using a
GIS-based modeling approach
 2.- The concept of climate risk

Risk

… but the ideal option is to perform a quantitative evaluation.

Risk = f (threat, exposure,

vulnerability)

Example of
quantitative
evaluation of risk
[1]

Source: [1] Sanne Muis et al. 2015: Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global
data
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Negative jargon How will evolve

hazard, exposure and
vulnerability for the
Note that climate fishermen in the next
adaptation jargon is five years (negatively
only negative, and it is / positively/ no
complicated to handle change)?
positive impacts with it.

And a general
evaluation of the
changes for the
shark?

Source: [1] Nick Kim: http://www.lab-initio.com/250dpi/nz215.jpg

 3.- Climate change adaptation

As Hazard is modified by climate change….

… if we want to keep a reasonable level of risk….
…we have to implement adaptation measures!!!!

Source: own preparation

 3.- Climate change adaptation

But…not only climate is changing. Societal changes, economic development, etc. will modify the vulnerability, exposure, etc.

View of Spanish coast: In the last Changes in the Area with

decades the value of properties significant potential risk of
exposed to sea level rise has flooding (ARPSI) ARPSI ES017-
increased dramatically. BIZ-IBA-01: Due to the
opening of a channel,in the
Bilbao ria, riverine floods will
reduce their intensity ….and
the exposure of the
surroundings settlements
reduced. [1]

Sources
[1] CH Cantabrico / URA. 2019: REVISIÓN Y ACTUALIZACIÓN DE LOS MAPAS DE PELIGROSIDAD Y RIESGO DE INUNDACIÓN. 2º CICLO: Parte española de la
Demarcación Hidrográfica del Cantábrico Oriental.
 3.- Climate change adaptation

So, we need to take actions. Which ones? Let´s perform an evaluation of climate risk in different scenarios and considering
different potential measures. The most efficient combinations for reducing climate change risks would be our choice….

Potential actions for adaption of coastal areas [1]

… But don´t forget that measures can also provide other benefits / trade-offs
Source:
[1] IPCC, 2014: Special report: Special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate
[2] CartoonArts International 2014. Copyright may apply
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Impact (consequences, outcomes) [1]

The consequences of realized risks on natural and human systems, where

risks result from the interactions of climate-related hazards (including
extreme weather and climate events), exposure, and vulnerability. Impacts
generally refer to effects on lives; livelihoods; health and well-being;
ecosystems and species; economic, social and cultural assets; services
(including ecosystem services); and infrastructure. Impacts may be
referred to as consequences or outcomes, and can be adverse or
beneficial.

Source: [1] IPCC 2018: Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC. Glosary
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Hazard
Structure
and of
intermediate
an impact chain
impact
according
factors for
to the IPCC
risk ‘Risk
AR5 of
Approaches for climate change adaptation: Impact chains water
approach.
scarcity
General
for smallholder
overview farmers’.
of the concept (above) and
[1]detailed structure (below)
Generation of impact chains includes:

- Identification and evaluation of the threats to which the studied

system is exposed. Usually, it is useful to
consider 1st and 2nd
- Consideration of the project cycle and the current stage in which order hazards
we find ourselves.

- Threat assessment by analyzing:

- Current climate
- Climate change scenarios

Source: [1] GIZ and EURAC 2017: Risk Supplement to the Vulnerability Sourcebook
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Approaches for climate change adaptation: System thinking

For contextualizing the adaptation, one
interesting option is the application of
“systems thinking” (or “Systems Thinking”),
which is the approach that is proposed in
some standards such as the drafts of the
future ISO / DIS 14090: 2018

This helps to define the elements to be

analyzed in our risk assessment:
- Upstream (e.g., Glacier)
- Downstream (e.g., power grid)
- Etc.
- Establish the scope in which adaptation
measures can be taken.

Source:
[1] https://thesystemsthinker.com/learning-differently-in-the-classroom/
[2] Own preparation for Guía para el análisis detallado de riesgo climático
 3.- Climate change adaptation
Complex interactions that generated risk to infrastructure during the
2018 European heatwave. Arrows indicate interactions and addition
signs indicate aggregation of the individual drivers of risk.[1]
Approaches for climate change adaptation: Interactions
Increasingly complex climate change risk assessment approaches focus on interactions
among multiple drivers of risk and among multiple risks.

Three categories of increasingly complex climate change risk

(A) Category 1: interactions among single drivers (small circles) for each determinant of a risk: hazard, vulnerability, exposure, Source:
and response to climate change. (B) Category 2: interactions of multiple drivers (e.g., compounding vulnerabilities of education [1] Simpson, Nicholas P. et al.
and income) within each determinant of risk, as well as among the determinants of a risk. (C) Category 3: interacting risks. 2021 A framework for complex
Across categories 2 and 3, compounding and cascading interactions, together with aggregations, generate increasing complexity climate change risk assessment
for risk assessment.
‘‘determinant’’ refers to hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and response, within which the term
‘‘driver’’ refers to individual components, such as heavy precipitation (a driver within the hazard determinant) or access
to shelter (a driver within the vulnerability determinant), that interact to affect the overall risk (e.g., flood mortality). [1]
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Adaptation planning and monitoring

There are different approaches proposed for planning, implementing and monitoring adaptation to climate change, but most of
them share a cycle approach. As an example, the Adaptation Support Tool (AST) aims to assist policy makers and coordinators
on the national level in developing, implementing, monitoring and evaluating climate change adaptation strategies and
plans…but, its general concepts could be applied to other levels of governance or individual projects.

Source: [1] Climate Adapt: The Adaptation Support Tool

 3.- Climate change adaptation

General framework proposed for adaptation planning and implementation

Adaptation planning and monitoring

Usually there is a wide range of potential measures

including:
- Planned and unforeseen.
- Identified in other phases of the study.
- Redesign of elements or new elements
- They can be inside the system or outside.
- It may not be able to intervene in the entire
system that determines climate risk.
- Etc.

It is interesting to define a sequential and long-tern

methodology for prioritizing, implementing,
monitoring, etc.

Source: [1] Own preparation

 3.- Climate change adaptation

Methodologies for prioritizing measures.

Métodos Muy adecuado para Comúnmente utilizado en Incertidumbre
Análisis costo- •Opciones bajas y sin arrepentimiento en el futuro cercano Agricultura, Silvicultura, Energía, •No trata explícitamente con la incertidumbre
beneficio •Donde se pueden usar valores de mercado claros Agua y gestión costera, Transporte •Se puede combinar con pruebas de sensibilidad y modelos
probabilísticos
Análisis costo- •Adaptación a corto plazo Salud, Protección civil, Protección •No trata explícitamente con la incertidumbre
efectividad •Donde los beneficios deben ser examinados en términos no de la biodiversidad •Se puede combinar con pruebas de sensibilidad y modelos
monetarios probabilísticos
•Donde se deben alcanzar objetivos predefinidos
Análisis de •La evaluación de grandes inversiones de capital a mediano plazo Construcción, Planes regionales, •Trata explícitamente con la incertidumbre mediante el análisis
opciones reales •Donde la información sobre las probabilidades de riesgo Energía , Silvicultura, Agricultura del rendimiento de la adaptación para diferentes futuros
climático está disponible potenciales
•Cuando futuros cambios en la operación son posibles
Toma de •La evaluación de las inversiones a largo plazo Gestión del agua, Gestión costera, •Tratos explícitamente con incertidumbre
decisiones Donde existen grandes incertidumbres Agricultura, Energía, Salud, •Analiza el rendimiento de la adaptación para diferentes futuros
robustas •Donde se debe considerar una combinación de información Construcción, Protección civil potenciales
cuantitativa y cualitativa
Gestión del riesgo •Evaluación de políticas a mediano y largo plazo Gestión del agua, Gestión costera, •Tratos explícitamente con incertidumbre
iterativo/ Gestión •Cuando hay umbrales de riesgo claros Agricultura, Salud, Silvicultura Promueve el análisis iterativo, monitoreo, evaluación y
adaptativa aprendizaje
Análisis de cartera •Cuando es posible una cantidad de acciones de adaptación
Gestión del agua, Gestión costera, •Tratos explícitamente con incertidumbre
complementarias Silvicultura, Salud, Pesca, •Examina la complementariedad de las opciones de adaptación
•Cuando existe una buena información económica y climática
Agricultura, Protección de la para hacer frente a climas futuros
biodiversidad
Análisis •Opciones de alcance Gestión del agua, Gestión costera, •Puede integrar la incertidumbre como un criterio de evaluación
multicriterio •Donde se debe considerar una combinación de datos Agricultura, Protección de la •Se basa en el juicio experto subjetivo o la opinión de los
cuantitativos y cualitativos biodiversidad interesados
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Approaches for climate change adaptation: Adaptation pathways

Adaptation pathways are developed to design adaptive policies to handle climate change uncertainty. They take into
consideration the expected evolution of the risks and impacts to propose a sequence of possible actions and tipping points.

Source:
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust
decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Source:
Guidelines for Project Managers Making vulnerable investments climate resilient
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Communication: the main arguments

Unfortunately, the climate change is associated to a political debate not directly linked to scientific knowledge and evidence.

Percentaje of Climate experts that think Lines of evidence that show the Climate system is changing
humans are changing global temperatura in
2010 (97%)

Sources:
[left] Skeptical Science: Scientific Consensus on Global Warming . Based on Doran et al 2009 and Anderegg et al 2010.
[right] Australian Government: Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment: Understanding climate change
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Communication: the main arguments

A too catastrophic, too distant, too “activist”, etc. message, will not be the most appropriate approach all times.

Sources:
[1] reason.com: Worst-Case 'Climate Porn' Is Counterproductive to Addressing Real Climate Change
[2] panamericana.pe: Científicos advierten sobre disminución de osos polares por falta de alimento a causa del cambio climático
[3] información.es: Las 10 catástrofes climáticas más extremas de 2021
[4] Youtube
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Communication: threat vs opportunity

Remember: all we want to be sharks!!! …and nobody wants to be shark food. Focus on opportunities.

Which strategy seems more

Sources: appealing for encouraging action?
[left] Nick Kim: http://www.lab-initio.com/250dpi/nz215.jpg
[right] Author: Popa Matumala
[Next] Mackay Cartoons: https://mackaycartoons.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/2020-0311-NATrevised-healthcare.jpg
 3.- Climate change adaptation

Communication: Modulating the challenge

All we agree that climate change
is a great challenge, and we have
to prepare for it….but we must
modulate the message and the
ambition.
Thank you!

Please, don´t hesitate to contact us:

Jorge Paz: jorge.paz@tecnalia.com