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An examination of climate change impacts on coastal tourism in Durban,

South Africa

Thesis · October 2022

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32200.60166

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Aphelele Mgadle Kaitano Dube

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An examination of climate change impacts on coastal tourism in Durban,
South Africa

Dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree

Master of Management in Travel and Tourism Services Management
In the Faculty of Human Sciences

Aphelele Mgadle

B-tech Tourism Management and Diploma: Ecotourism Management

Student number: 215267273

Supervisor: Prof. Kaitano Dube

Co-Supervisor: Prof. Limpho Lekaota

October 2022
Declaration
I, Aphelele Mgadle, declare that this thesis is my original work and has never been
presented to any other university or institution for a similar or any other degree
award.

10/10/2022

Signature Date

i
Acknowledgement
• First and foremost, praises and appreciation to the Almighty God for showering
His blessings on me through my research endeavour.
• I want to take this opportunity to offer my heartfelt gratitude to Prof. K Dube and
Prof. L Lekaota, my research supervisor and co-supervisor, respectively, for
their guidance, support, and direction as I conducted the research to its
conclusion. Their vision and passion have genuinely inspired me. It has been
an incredible honour and privilege to conduct research under their supervision.
• I am also highly grateful to my mother, Miss Mgadle, for her unwavering love,
prayers, support, and sacrifice to further my education and prepare me for a
bright future.
• I would also like to thank all my friends for their support, productive contribution,
and constructive criticism on my research journey.
• My heartfelt gratitude goes to the eThekwini Municipality for its cooperation and
patience with me as I sought answers for this research.
• To the respondents that participated in this study, a thousand thanks for your
unselfish willingness to spare their time to participate in my data gathering. I
wish your unwavering support and my work will contribute to a greater
understanding of the various impacts of climate change on coastal tourism and
eThekwini Municipality.
• Lastly, a thousand kudos to my beloved family, both immediate and extended,
for giving me encouragement, support, and inspiration.

May God bless and be with you all!!

ii
Dedication
To my supportive, lovely mom, Bolekwa Mgadle, and my two sisters, Athandile and
Asanda, who always wished and believed that one day I would complete my Masters
Degree.

iii
Abstract
Coastal communities are facing several environmental and developmental challenges.
As the Decade of Sustainable Development Goals Action aimed at ensuring delivery
of the aspirations set out in Agenda 2030 draws closer, a parallel initiative has been
made on oceans. In 2018 the United Nations launched the Decade of Ocean Science
(2021-2030), aimed at exploring the challenges faced by oceans and coastal
communities. Given Operations Phakisa's well-documented socio-economic
significance of oceans in South Africa, it is crucial to understand how climate change
affects the country’s coastal tourism to inform policy and practice. This study examined
climate change impacts on coastal tourism in Durban. It used archival data from the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, primary data collected from key
informant interviews (n=10), and an online questionnaire (n=302). Data analysis was
done using XLSTAT 2021, Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis, Question-Pro Analytics and
content and thematic analysis. The study found that extreme weather events such as
rising sea levels, increases in tidal activity, coastal flooding and heat waves are
identifiable threats to Durban’s future as a tourist destination. The study also found
that sea level rise, sea surges, coastal storms, and high tides are worsening the
challenge of beach erosion and coastal flooding, threatening tourism infrastructure in
the process. In response, the eThekwini Municipality has embarked on response
initiatives which include beach nourishment programmes, dune restoration and
coastal defence mechanisms to conserve the beachfront and hopefully ensure coastal
tourism sustainability. To assist such efforts, this study recommends educational
support by civil society and government to sensitise and improve climate change
understanding from a tourism perspective to ensure the sector’s adaptation and
resilience. It also recommends public-private partnerships for the protection of coastal
tourism infrastructure. Lastly, given the apparent threat of sea-level rise along Africa
and South Africa’s coastlines, the study advocates a de-risked approach to
constructing tourism properties.

Keywords: Coastal tourism; sea-level rise; Durban; sustainability; climate change

Publications from this study: A paper titled “Conservation and sustainability of

coastal city tourism in the advent of Sea Level Rise in Durban, South Africa” was

iv
accepted and is under production in Tourism in Marine Environments ISSN: 1544-
273X; E-ISSN: 2169-0197.

v
Table of Contents
Declaration ..................................................................................................................................... i

Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................................ ii

Dedication..................................................................................................................................... iii

Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iv

List of figures ................................................................................................................................ ix

Chapter 1: Background and Introduction ................................................................................ 1

1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Rationale and motivation .................................................................................................. 4

1.3 Problem Statement ............................................................................................................ 5

1.4 Main aim and objectives of the study ............................................................................. 5

1.4.1 Research aim............................................................................................................... 5

1.4.2 Research objectives ................................................................................................... 6

1.5 Research questions ........................................................................................................... 6

1.6 Dissertation Outline ........................................................................................................... 6

Chapter 2: Literature Review ...................................................................................................... 7

2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 7

2.2 Tourism overview ............................................................................................................... 7

2.3 Role of Tourism in KwaZulu-Natal .................................................................................. 9

2.3.1 Weather, Climate and Tourism ............................................................................... 11

2.3.2 Tourism and climate change vulnerability ............................................................. 12

2.4 Tourism and Climate Change Studies in Southern Africa and Africa ...................... 15

2.5 Climate change and coastal Tourism ........................................................................... 19

2.6 Mitigation and adaptation measures ............................................................................. 22

2.7 Chapter Summary .......................................................................................................... 24

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Chapter 3: Research Methodology.......................................................................................... 26

3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 26

3.2 Study Area ........................................................................................................................ 26

3.3 Research Paradigm ....................................................................................................... 28

3.4 Research design .............................................................................................................. 29

3.4.1 Case Study Research .............................................................................................. 30

3.4.2 Sampling and Population .................................................................................... 32

3.5 Data Collection Tools ...................................................................................................... 33

3.5.1 In-depth Interviews ................................................................................................... 34

3.5.2 Field Observations .................................................................................................... 35

3.5.3 Self-administered Online Questionnaires ............................................................. 35

3.5.4 Archival Data ............................................................................................................. 36

3.5.5 Secondary data ......................................................................................................... 36

3.6 Ethical Considerations .................................................................................................... 37

3.7 Data Analysis .................................................................................................................... 37

3.8 Challenges in Data Collection ........................................................................................ 39

3.9 Internal and External validity .......................................................................................... 39

3.10 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................................... 39

Chapter 4: Results and Discussions ....................................................................................... 41

4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 41

4.2 Durban Tourism Exposure and Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events. ............ 42

4.3 Tourism Contribution to Climate Change ............................................................... 47

4.4 Perceived Hydro-Meteorological Challenges to Durban Coastal Region. ..... 48

4.5 Tourists’ Perceptions of Durban’s Destination’s Response to Climate

change. .................................................................................................................................... 50

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 4.6 Chapter Summary ............................................................................................................ 54

Chapter 5: Extreme Weather Trends Impacting Coastal Tourism. .................................... 56

5.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 56

5.2 Sea Level Rise and Implications for Beach Conservation in Durban. ..................... 56

5.3 Impact of Climate Change on Tourism Infrastructure ................................................ 58

5.4 Durban’s Response to Threats of Climate Change on Coastal Tourism. ............... 64

5.5 Chapter Summary ............................................................................................................ 68

Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendations ..................................................................... 69

6.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 69

6.2 Summary of findings ........................................................................................................ 69

6.2.1 Tourism stakeholders’ experiences and perceptions of climate change on

coastal tourism in Durban. ................................................................................................. 69

6.2.2 Extreme weather trends that have an impact on coastal tourism. .................... 70

6.3 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 71

6.4 Research Limitations ....................................................................................................... 72

References .................................................................................................................................. 73

Appendices...................................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Annexure A: Interview Guide .................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Annexure B: Questionnaire Guide ............................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Annexure C: Ethics Approval letter ..........................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Annexure D: Certificate of participation in ICE Conference. Error! Bookmark not defined.

Annexure E: Article publication .................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Annexure F: Plagiarism report ..................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

viii
List of figures

Figure 2. 1: Tourism KwaZulu-Natal 2016-2019……………………………………...11

Figure 3. 1: Location of Durban, South Africa and some of its main beaches…….27

Figure 3. 2: Current and future rainfall projections for Durban………………………28

Figure 3. 3: The research process using an embedded mixed-method design.......30

Figure 3. 4: Breakdown of the purposes of case study research. …………………..31

Figure 4. 1: Tourist contribution to climate change…………………………………… 41

Figure 4. 2: Reasons for visiting Durban………………………………………………. 43

Figure 4. 3: Climatic challenges faced by Durban……………………………………. 44

Figure 4. 4: Durban coastal tourism exposure to Sea-Level Rise………………….. 45

Figure 4. 5: Impact of Sea-Level Rise on coastal tourism…………………………… 46

Figure 4. 6: Perception of whether climate change will worsen the impact of climate
change on Durban's current challenges……………………………………………….. 47

Figure 4. 7: Tourism contribution to climate change…………………………………. 48

Figure 4. 8: Durban's vulnerability to flooding………………………………………… 49

Figure 4. 9: Most problematic hydro-meteorological components for tourists…….. 50

Figure 4. 10: Challenges in dealing with climate change……………………………. 51

Figure 4. 11: Tourist's perception of Durban's response to extreme weather

events……………………………………………………………………………………… 52

Figure 4. 12: Climate change mitigation strategies…………………………………... 53

Figure 4. 13: Measures put in place to adapt to climate change……………………. 54

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Figure 5. 1: Relative Sea-Level Rise trend for Durban, South Africa………………. 57

Figure 5. 2: Projected Sea-Level Rise under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for

Durban…………………………………………………………………………………….. 58

Figure 5. 3: Map showing mean Sea-Level Rise for Durban and some tropical cyclones
that have impacted Durban………………………………………………………………60

Figure 5. 4: Damage to beaches and second homes after a storm in 2007 at

Ballito……………………………………………………………………………………… 61

Figure 5. 5: Pictures of Umhlanga Rocks lighthouse prior and after damage…….. 63

Figure 5. 6: Some measures adopted to coastal defence in eThekwini and neighbouring

towns……………………………………………………………………………………….65

Figure 5. 7: Illustration of Durban's beach replenishment project…………………... 67

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Chapter 1: Background and Introduction

1.1 Introduction
Globally, tourism is one of the primary development sectors that employs a large number
of individuals (Scheyvens & Hughes 2018:1062). It contributes significantly to an
economy’s revenue base and helps disadvantaged communities solve the triple threat of
poverty, imbalance, and unemployment (Dube & Nhamo 2019a:2025). According to The
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC 2018:2), in 2019, tourism accounted for 3.5
percent of employment and $948 billion in revenue worldwide. In South Africa, the tourism
industry is notable for enabling previously disenfranchised black people to create
businesses. The sector is also a significant foreign currency generator (WTTC 2018:2).

The study of climate change and tourism has a long history. Previous research has
focused on the impact of weather on beach activities, the Winter Olympics, and in most
cases, snow tourism (Rutty, Scott, Steiger & Johnson 2015; Toubes, Vila & Brea 2020).
Rising sea levels, droughts, growing heat-waves, flooding, coastline erosion, and extreme
rains have all been highlighted as serious dangers to the tourism industry in South Africa
and elsewhere (Neumann, Vafeidis, Zimmermann & Nicholls 2015:1).

According to Hoogendoorn and Fitchett (2018:752), extreme weather events have

harmed second-home tourism due to their devastating nature. For example, tropical
cyclones have been wreaking havoc on property in Limpopo’s Mopani District (Fitchett,
Hoogendoorn & Swemmer 2016:187). Other parts of the province have also experienced
flooding (Southon & Van der Merwe 2018:4). Floods and droughts have devastated tourist
destinations like the Kruger National Park. According to Dube and Nhamo (2019b:5), in
the recent past, floods have had a disastrous impact on tourism infrastructure and
business in the park. Conversely, Dube and Nhamo (2019b:5) also report how increasing
temperatures and droughts have equally pushed up the costs of operating national parks
like the Kruger National Park.

Given the importance of climate to tourism, various models have been presented to grasp
the consequences of climate and weather implications on tourism across the world. The

1
most notable is Mieczkowski’s Tourism Climate Change Index (1985:220). Since tourism
and climate change have taken centre stage in Southern Africa, other scholars, including
Fitchett, Robison and Hoogendoorn (2017:855), have sought to redefine this with little
success.

Even though research into the relationship between tourism, weather, and climate began
long ago, the issue of climate sensitivity and change is still relevant today (Dubois &
Krasny 2016:225). With the effects of climate change increasingly becoming a pressing
concern, the tourism industry must urgently and practically respond to it by reducing its
outflows. Doing so would contribute to averting the world into a disastrous climate
scenario (Michailidou, Vlachokostas & Moussiopoulos 2016:3).

Regardless of how serious climate change threats are, a survey of literature on the impact
of climate change on tourism identifies large and locally specific knowledge gaps (Scott,
Hall & Gossling 2016:8). Addressing the knowledge gaps would allow for a greater
understanding of the complicated relationship between climate change and tourism, as
well as improved tourism industry adaptation and mitigation capacities (Dube 2018:4). In
support of this, there is a broad consensus that further research on tourism and the effects
of climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa is needed to fill knowledge gaps (Hall 2018:48;
Hoogendoorn & Fitchett 2018:742; Pandy 2017:1; Verbos, Altschuler & Brownlee
2018:533). Such knowledge gaps hinder the ability to decode climate change’s impact on
tourism's input (Scott et al. 2016:13). Weather and climate impact the growth and tourism
activities. Several tourism activities or products can only be carried out safely during
certain weather conditions (coral reefs, snow cover and wildlife, for example) can be
affected by climate variability that brings heatwaves, unseasonable cold, drought or
storms and heavy rains (Scott & Lemieux 2010:147). Given this reliance on the weather,
tourist areas are vulnerable to climate change and inconstancy (Pandy & Rogerson
2018:1582). Consequently, climate change and tourism-related issues have become
increasingly important to tourism experts, corporations, and governments.

Climate change impact assessments are in high demand. These range from various
tourism destinations and stakeholders to direct relevant mitigation and adaptation

2
methods (Hall 2018:48). Given the importance of the tourism sector to the progress of the
African region, developing states, and the world generally, researchers and academics
have performed practical studies to assess the influence of climate change on the tourism
industry (Dube & Nhamo 2018:113; Collins, Bresnan & Brown 2020:482; Hoogendoorn
et al. 2018:752; Pandy et al. 2018:1582).

Ironically, although tourism is sensitive to climate change, it is one of the contributors and
supporters of climate change due to ozone-depleting and greenhouse gas emissions
(Michailidou et al. 2016:7). Several operations in the tourism value chain emit ozone-
depleting substances that contribute to global warming, a major cause of climate change
(Dube & Nhamo 2019b:5). Depending on a destination’s geographic location, many
scenarios and outcomes for climate change’s impact on the tourist sector exist. It is in the
interest of the tourism industry, therefore, which is both a victim and a culprit of climate
change, to tackle climate change even though it is also the moral thing to do (Mackay &
Spencer 2017:45). Some destinations are projected to benefit from the climate change
phenomena, while others will be net losers (Hall 2008:1).

Coastal regions are highly valued domains for leisure activities, with recreational
vacations to coastal destinations seen as having a long ancestry among the privileged
(Rogerson 2020:716). Coastal tourism for recreational purposes is regarded as one of
the tourism industry’s fastest-growing divisions (Dwyer 2018:26). However, despite the
importance of tourism to global economies, climate change is putting pressure on the
sector.

As for low-lying coastal towns, Fitchett, Grant and Hoogendoorn (2016:1) report that they
are in grave danger from climate change. Flooding caused by rising sea levels, increased
annoyance from changes in rainfall and temperature, regular biodiversity shifts, extreme
events, and water scarcity are all potential risks (Fitchett et al. 2016:1). Understanding
the significance of tourism and climate change, the current study will examine and
determine the impacts of climate change on coastal tourism in Durban South Africa, using
the tourists, tourism sectors, experts in climate change and archival information.

3
1.2 Rationale and motivation
Since the turn of the century, climate change has evolved into a critical global ecological,
financial and political threat (Pang, McKercher & Prideaux 2013:1). To Dube (2018:6),
climate change can be attributed to the pressures and threats attributable to recent
extreme weather occurrences. The Paris (climate change) Agreement, signed by 196
countries in 2015, resulted from these pressures and threats. In Paris, the tourism
industry acknowledged its failure to meet and monitor prior commitments outlined and
agreed on at the Davos Declaration on decreasing carbon emissions before the Paris
Agreement (Scott et al. 2016:23).

According to The World Economic Forum (2019:6), climate change is striking more
forcefully and faster than many expected. Natural disasters caused by weather are
becoming more severe and frequent around the world. Consequently, 2019 saw an
unprecedented number of extreme weather events globally. These included heatwaves,
storms, tropical cyclones, fires and floods, to name a few (World Meteorological
Organisation 2019:34).

Scott, Rutty, Amelung and Tang (2016:1) reaffirm Hulme (2016:222) and Gossling, Scott
and Hall’s (2013:525) calls for the tourism industry to invest more in mitigation and
adaptation research. Scott, Hall and Gossling (2016:1) have urged the tourism industry
to move beyond modelling and projecting emissions to performing additional risk
assessment studies. This calls for the research community to respond to global
knowledge gaps in the spatial conveyance of tourism, climate change research, and
knowledge in geographic zones generally, which have not been covered by previous
research work, with Africa severely underperforming, becomes critical (Scott et al. 2016;
Scott, Steigner, Rutty & Johnson 2015:913).

While research on tourism and climate change is slowly growing, Southern Africa has not
experienced this to the same extent. If anything, the region has split from the rest of the
globe, leaving large information gaps (Hoogendoorn et al. 2018:742). Following the
expectations of the Paris Agreement on climate change, Scott et al. (2016:3) emphasise
the need for more focused research on the impact of climate change on tourism and

4
tourism on climate change. As tourism is Africa’s best and most promising economic
activity, there is a pressing need to expand research into its flaws and especially the
effects of climate change on tourism (Dube 2018:5). In this vein, this study sought to
respond to that knowledge gap by investigating the climate trends and impact of extreme
weather events on coastal tourism in Durban, South Africa.

However, despite the importance of the contribution of coastal economies such as Durban
to the South African economy, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
(2019:5) emphasised coastal tourism's vulnerability to many risks posed by climate
change. The panel also noted large knowledge gaps regarding the scope of the problem.
Given these and the factors described above, the study’s research questions were
derived.

1.3 Problem Statement

According to Pandy and Rogerson (2018:1582), beaches and other coastal attractions
accounted for approximately 58 percent of domestic tourism in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in
2017. This validates the importance of coastal tourism in the province, particularly in
Durban, which accounts for the majority province’s tourism contribution in terms of both
numbers and revenue (Makhaola & Proches 2017:1). Despite the importance of coastal
tourism to the locals, provincial and national economies in KZN, there is little empirical
evidence on how extreme weather events linked to climate change have influenced and
will affect tourism in the country, particularly in the province of KZN and Durban. The
intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2019) emphasised coastal tourism's
vulnerability to many risks posed by climate change but also noted large knowledge gaps
regarding the scope of the problem. Therefore, this study seeks to answer the following
research question: How to trace and determine the impacts of climate change on coastal
tourism in Durban?

1.4 Main aim and objectives of the study

1.4.1 Research aim

The main aim of this study is to examine climate change impacts on coastal tourism in
Durban and how they can be traced and determined.

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1.4.2 Research objectives
The following objectives guide the study:

• To examine climate change’s impact on coastal tourism in Durban via the lens of
tourism stakeholders' experiences and perceptions;
• To investigate extreme weather trends that have an impact on coastal tourism in
Durban; and
• To assess the impact of climate change on tourism infrastructure and Durban’s
response to its threats.

1.5 Research questions

• What are tourism stakeholders' experiences and perceptions of climate change
impact on coastal tourism in Durban?
• What is the trend of various weather extreme events impacting coastal tourism in
Durban?
• What is the impact of climate change on tourism infrastructure and Durban’s
response to its threats?

1.6 Dissertation Outline

The research is organised into six chapters, as follows. Chapter one compromises the
introduction and background. It provides a thorough overview of the two-way link between
climate change and tourism, as well as the study’s justification and existing knowledge
gaps on the subject of climate change and coastal tourism. Chapter two provides a
comprehensive overview of the available literature on climate change and coastal
tourism. Chapter three presents the methodological approach deployed for the research
in theory and practice. The research findings are provided in Chapter four. This fourth
chapter discusses tourism stakeholders’ perceptions of climate change in Durban.
Chapter five presents the results of the investigation of extreme weather trends that have
impacted coastal tourism in Durban. The final chapter contains a summary of findings, a
conclusion, and recommendations for future research.

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Chapter 2: Literature Review

2.1 Introduction
This chapter begins with an overview of the detailed hypothetical structure of tourism, its
importance, and the role of tourism in KZN generally and Durban specifically. A synopsis
of tourism and climate change in South Africa, and most importantly, a nexus between
coastal tourism and climate change around the world and in South Africa, follows. To offer
background and justification for this study, the chapter concludes by identifying several
tourist and coastal tourism deficiencies in tourism destinations and provides more
information on climate change mitigation and adaptation measures by the tourism
industry.

2.2 Tourism overview

Tourism, as an indication of economic activity and a sector of vital importance to the world
economy, speaks to the modern growth setting through its substance and its jobs
(Bunghez 2017:1). The tourism industry caters to a critical sector of the global economy,
providing a significant source of employment and revenue for individuals, communities,
regions, and local economies (Pandy 2017:3). Indisputably, it plays a fundamental role in
the local, provincial, and national economies of reliant tourist destinations (Visser &
Hoogendoorn 2015:113; Rogerson & Rogerson 2017:194).

The World Travel and Tourism Council (2018:11) reports that before the emergence of
the COVID-19 pandemic, the tourism industry had become one of the world's generally
critical and fastest-growing industries. Topping 1.4 billion visitor arrivals in 2019, the year
2018 had seen one billion outbound tourist arrivals (United Nations World Tourism
Organisation 2018a:11). According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC
2019:4), in 2018, the tourism sector accounted for 10.4 percent of global GDP and 319
million jobs or 10 percent of total employment. During the same year, domestic tourism
accounted for 71.2% of all tourism spending and had the most robust growth in developing
countries. Scholars generally agree that tourism has a significant role in the financial
progress of neighbourhood networks with technological improvements, rising living

7
standards and broader processes of globalization leading to rapid increases in visitor
numbers (Hall 2018:49; Hoogendoorn & Fitchett 2018:745). Despite tourism being
regarded as a major global force with far-reaching consequences (Musavenge & Matiki
2015:46; Musavenge & Simatele 2016:808; Siakwah 2018:5) and providing both micro-
and macroeconomic benefits to African countries, the South African government has
focused its attention on the macro-scale (Falt 2016:466). Before COVID-19, the South
African tourism industry had risen to the forefront of economic sectors, attracting
investment, foreign direct investment in the country and job creation (Department of
Tourism 2019:9). Many economies around the world benefit from tourism in terms of
foreign exchange both directly and indirectly (Ponce, Padilla, Oliveira, Garcia & Rama
2020:17).

Post-COVID-19, tourism continues to play an important developmental role in both

developing and developed countries. As such, it is one of the five key economic areas in
which the South African government has decided to concentrate its efforts to encourage
investment and promote growth (Department of Tourism 2019:9; Rogerson & Rogerson
2020:842).

Local community investment in tourism development is now being emphasised in the

literature as a vital column that can be used to ensure sustainability (Assegid 2015:8;
Menbere & Menbere 2017:6; Simane & Aseres 2016:14). Considered, the continued
absence of reasonable and balanced community participation may also lead to conflict
and hostility between tourists and hosts (Menbere & Menbere 2017:10; Simane & Asares
2016:16). Local people being drawn into small-scale tourist ventures and small village
tours where they may interact directly with guests could, for example, promote community
engagement (Chibir & Shirko 2015:183) and long-term harmony.

The potential to offer neighbouring possibilities for local communities is perhaps one of
the most important economic contributors to tourism (Nurhssen 2016:4). Through the
tourism multiplier effect, tourism can generate more economic activity in the local area
(Mshenga, Richar, Njehia & Birachi 2010:954). For example, the result is induced when

8
households consume a portion of the earnings from tourism employment to purchase
non-tourism-related goods (Ajake 2015:46).

One specific benefit of tourism is its ability to generate more revenue for an area
(Nurhssen 2016:4; Ajake 2015:46). The presence of large numbers of tourists and tourist
activities both lead to tourist expenditures which result in a substantial impact on micro
and small-scale enterprises (Chibir & Shirko 2015:187). In addition, the tourism income
effect can be boosted by empowering the local community to manage income-generating
activities that cater to tourist demands (Simane & Aseres 2016:15). This brings us to
question the role tourism plays in the KwaZulu-Natal Province.

2.3 Role of Tourism in KwaZulu-Natal

Just as in other parts of South Africa, tourism plays a vital role in the economic affairs of
the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province, a coastal province of the country. According to
Tourism KwaZulu-Natal (2019:2), tourism statistically makes a critical contribution to the
KwaZulu-Natal local economy: "The tourism industry in the province, which is
dominatingly coastal and beach tourism developed from R9bn in 2014 to more than 10bn
by 2018" (Tourism KwaZulu-Natal 2019:8). This is reinforced by Govender's (2018:15)
reiteration that the tourism sector continues to significantly contribute to KZN's economic
growth from both domestic and international tourist expenditure.

In South Africa, the province of KZN is celebrated for its inheritance, social experiences,
and the way it is unmistakable proud of its local heritage, particularly its isiZulu language,
culture and the predominance of the spirit of Ubuntu (Ezeuduji & Mhlongo, 2019:1). KZN
is indeed an explorers’ dream. With a seemingly never-ending subtropical summer, it is
not unusual that KZN is renowned for outdoor activities such as beach going, adventure
biking, aquarium diving, beach horse riding, deep-sea fishing, and a variety of adventure
activities (Musavengane 2019:45).

Occupying a 600km swathe of the Indian Ocean coast that stretches up to the tropics,
KZN is a heaven for beach lovers, surfers and those of an adventurous disposition (World
Beach Guide 2019:1). The coastal province is a rich and differing resource; giving
significant economic, social and environmental assets (Vetrimurugan, Shruti, Jonathan,

9
Roy, Sarkar, Rawlins & Villegas 2019:3). It claims two World Heritage sites: iSimangaliso
Wetland Park and the Ukhahlamba Drakensberg Park in addition to nine coastlines with
blue flag status, namely, Ray Nkonyeni, Marina, Trafalgar, Lucien, Southport, Umzumbe,
Hibberdene, Ramsgate, Ushaka and Westbrook (Blue Flag 2018:2).

The ports of Durban and Richards Bay in KZN handle about 63 percent of South Africa's
generally conspicuous cargo, which is surveyed to be more than R160 billion per annum
(Vetrimurugan et al. 2019:1). These ports invigorate a vast portion of the KZN economy
annually and contribute significantly to employment associated with production, ocean
exchange and transport (Jones 2018:98). The KZN coast keeps on encountering urban
and peri-urban development. With two significant ports and vast stretches of magnificent
beaches that have the colossal potential for tourism (Tourism KwaZulu-Natal 2019:12),
its coastline holds opportunities for the province's financial advancement.

The tourism industry is KZN’s second macro-economic driver, in particular, coastal

tourism (Vetrimutugan et al. 2019:1). Nearly eight million tourists; and among them
850 000 foreigners visited KZN in 2018, resulting in the tourism industry contributing
roughly R20 billion to the province’s GDP (Department of Tourism 2019:7).

The most outer source market in KZN is domestic tourists from the Gauteng Province.
These domestic tourists usually visit the seaside resorts to spend most of their public
holidays (Tourism KwaZulu-Natal 2019:11) or attend conferences. Drawing over 20 000
visitors annually to the city of Durban and KZN (eThekwini Municipality 2019:3), the
Durban Convention Centre (Durban ICC) and other conference facilities have hosted
several significant events. These include the Conference of Parties (COP17) in 2011 at
the International Convention Centre (ICC) and other places around town.

In numerous Durban communities, tourism is the foundation of economic development.

Domestic tourism in Durban is at the base of the tourism industry. As such, the eThekwini
Municipality prioritises tourism development (Robbins 2017:4; Durban Tourism 2017).
Notably, Durban central is a point of convergence in the province (Makhaola & Proches
2017:1). According to Tourism KwaZulu-Natal (2019:1), domestic tourist numbers have,

10
over the years, exponentially increased by 88 percent in 2015 and 94 percent in 2016.
Figure 2.1 shows Durban visitor arrivals from 2016 to 2019.

Chart Title
350000

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017 2018 2019

Figure 2. 1: Tourism KwaZulu-Natal 2016-2019. Source: Tourism KwaZulu-Natal (2020).

2.3.1 Weather, Climate and Tourism

Regardless of tourism's immense contribution to Durban, the industry remains vulnerable
to extreme weather events based on recent research (Makhaola & Proches 2017:3;
Rossello, Becken & Gallego 2020:1), especially true of nature tourism destinations.

Akin to other South African tourist destinations such as Cape Town and Kruger National
Park, KwaZulu-Natal generally, and Durban, in particular, have ideal natural conditions to
flourish (Dube, Nhamo & Chikodzi 2020:5; Dube & Nhamo 2020:2). For some time now,
the relationship between climate change, tourism, and the weather has been of great
interest amongst tourism geographers. So much so that it has led to the production of
tourism climate indexes, the most popular one being that developed by Mieczkowski
(1985:220) and subsequently revised by other scholars like Yu, Rutty, Scott & Li (2020:6).

Tourism is naturally dependent upon climate and weather. Climate immediately affects
the assets accessible to tourism and its participants (Fang, Yin & Wu 2018:109).
Tourism’s sustainability and resilience to unfriendly climate and weather impacts can be
remarkably overhauled by providing tailored climate services to tourism sector
stakeholders (Becken, Noakes & Mackey 2017:377). Tourist arrivals rely on prevailing

11
weather and climate in managed natural areas (Smith, Wilkins, Gayle, & Lamborn
2018:250). For many tourists, destination selection depends upon expected climate
conditions (Hamilton & Lau 2006:7). Interestingly, various provincial tourists and local
visitors plan their trips to areas where the climate is commensurate to adventure and
appealing conditions (Patrolia, Thompson, Dalton & Hoagland 2017:252).

A changing climate can drastically alter visitation to managed natural areas since outdoor
recreationists and tourists are exceptionally sensitive to climate and weather (Smith et al.
2018:253). For instance, warming temperatures at a mountain ski resort will probably
diminish the number of snow days and discourage some skiers (Rutty et al. 2015:38); this
will have a knock-on effect on tourist arrivals. A similar relationship between weather
conditions and tourist arrivals at New England ski areas has been shown in a previous
study (Beaudin & Huang 2014:57). Beaudin and Huang (2014:58) outline how the
economies of tourism destinations can be modified by climate change.

Changes in summer weather have been shown to influence tourists and affect visit
duration and spending. Research on the impact of climate and weather on outdoor
activities by Falk (2015:20). Dube and Nhamo (2018:117), and Dube and Nhamo
(2020b:5) on tourists' knowledge and perceptions of climate change demonstrate the
negative implications that climate change has had on tourists’ travel behaviours to
Okavango Delta and Victoria Falls.

2.3.2 Tourism and climate change vulnerability

In view of the relationship between tourism, climate and weather, climate change can
modify a tourist's destination and activities of interest. There are numerous predictions,
assumptions, and confirmations that climate change is bound to affect the tourism
industry unfavourably. This is especially so since the climate is one of tourism's major
resources shaping and driving the sector's prosperity (Dube & Nhamo 2018:115, Dube &
Nhamo 2019a:5, Dube & Nhamo 2020b:12; Dube & Nhamo 2020a:7). Due to climate
change, both domestic and international tourist travel patterns are expected to change
(Bujosa, Riera & Torres 2015:233). The unevenness of tourist arrivals to a particular
destination is influenced by climate change, tourist destination selection, available tourist

12
activities, attractions, and overall satisfaction of a vacation (Ceron & Dubois 2012:191).
Consequently, a tourist destination's long-term viability and sustainability can be reduced
by climate change (Hoogendoorn & Fitchett 2018:745). As such, climate change plays a
significant role in the relative choice of a tourist destination. It can solely adjust the
popularity of tourism localities and regions (Rossello & Waqas 2015:5).

When it comes to tourist destinations, changes in the climate of an area, such as growing
threats of natural hazards, storms, flooding and sea-level rise, can result in a destination
becoming unacceptable (Rogerson 2016:325). Long-term planning for climate change
results is often regarded as unnecessary until the impact of climate change occurring
looms large (Hoogendoorn, Grant & Fitchett 2016:64). While the risks of climate change
to tourism may generally be manageable for developed countries (Perch-Nielsen,
Amelung & Knutti 2010:363), for developing countries on the African continent that is not
the case.

Climate change will severely affect Africa. This is especially so given the continent's low
adaptive capacity due to resources and technical constraints (Hoogendoorn, Grant &
Fitchett 2016:60). Already contending with difficulties of economic and social
development, their adaptive capacity is so severely lowered that threats to the tourism
sector are inevitable (Rogerson 2016:324). The perception surrounding climate change
is worsening this situation for African countries.

Within tourism and even beyond, climate change remains a contentious topic. There is
still a lot of denialism surrounding it. This is despite strong scientific evidence emerging
from independent academic research and its acceptance by a broader community of
policymakers (Dogru, Marchio, Bulut & Suess 2019:292). For instance, in 2014, Shani
and Arad (2014:342) produced a survey on the impacts of climate change on world
economies that was cynically received. The aim of assessing the impacts of climate
change is to ascertain its implications for the industry across different international
locales, nations and urban communities (Rossello-Nadal 2014:334; Rutty, Scott,
Johnson, Pons, Steiger & Vilella 2017:197). In this vein, the effects of changes in climatic

13
factors, temperature and rainfall on tourism demand have, in recent studies, been
analysed (Dogru et al. 2019:293).

To the wider world economy, climate change represents a danger (Burke, Davis &
Diffenbaugh 2018:550). Global warming of a little more than two degrees Celsius can
spell disaster. The difficulties that climate change poses to growth in the tourism sector,
despite its capacity to contribute to Sustainable Developmental Goals (SDGs), remain
under-researched (Becken 2019:54; Scheyvens & Hughes 2018:1063). Notably,
relatively unimportant research on tourism and climate change in the context of less
developed countries continues to be published (Hall, Amelung, Cohen, Eijgelaar,
Gossling & Higham 2015:16). There is a dire need for publications on the potential
implications of climate change on tourism as a means of poverty reduction and
sustainable development (Scheyvens & Hughes 2018:1063; United Nations World
Tourism Organisation 2018:2).

In addition, various other elements, such as the condition of the common habitat, insights
on individual security, and the ability to meet travel costs, are likely to influence tourism
as it is a highly climate-sensitive sector (Scott, Gossling & Hall 2012:213). A thorough
survey of 10 climate change impacts affecting 89 human wellbeing, water, food, security,
infrastructure and economy recently discovered that tourism was one of the only five
attributes being impacted by 10 types of climate impacts (Mora, Dousset & Trauernicht
2017:502). In 2018, the World Travel and Tourism Council (2018:5) joined the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Climate Neutral Now
initiative, focusing on turning out to be climate neutral by 2050 and much needed to
collaborate on accelerating sector-wide climate action (Gossling & Scott 2018:2072).

Despite tourism's real vulnerability to climate change at provincial and national destination
levels, the different climate change impacts remain researchable (Gossling & Scott
2018:2072). Regional chapters of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) Assessment Reports confirm that potential impacts remain inadequately
comprehended in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, and small islands (Scott et al.
2016:8). Gaps in literature also have to do with the territorial ramifications of climate

14
change impacts on tourism’s competitiveness and manageability. Thus far, there have
been no assessments that consider the broad scope of climate change's possible effects
and their interaction at the destination scale (Scott et al. 2016:9). Within the very
comprehensive multi-sectorial literature reviewed by Mora et al. (2017:502), the study of
climate change impacts has been basic. At best, it provides a fragmented and conceivably
deceptive assessment of the result of climate change for an area or sector of interest.

Since tourism is globally interconnected, the impacts of climate change and subsequent
adaptation or mitigation responses in some countries can significantly infer other
destination countries (United Nations World Tourism Organisation 2018a:6). This
incorporates the climate change impacts within a country's borders. Hendlund, Fick,
Carlsen, and Benzie (2018:75) refer to transboundary and transnational dangers across
borders and distant countries. Considering such connectedness, diverse data should be
incorporated to understand how various climate change impacts could influence the
tourism sector (Mora et al. 2017:505).

2.4 Tourism and Climate Change Studies in Southern Africa and Africa
It is turning out to be progressively apparent that climate change is probably the greatest
danger confronting mankind today and perhaps in the drawn-out future (Dube & Nhamo,
2020b:1). Environmental degradation resulting from rapid industrialization and
globalisation has caused climate change. In 2019, for the third time running, climate
change was the greatest challenge to the world economy in terms of the probability of it
occurring, its effect, and its seriousness (World Economic Forum 2019:5).

Shrinking habitats and climate change are the main challenges to nature-based,
endangered activities and climate-sensitive activities (Hall 2011:339). Kilungu, Leemans,
Munishi, Nicholls, and Amelung (2019:11) conjecture that ideal climatic and
environmental conditions are the most significant for nature-based tourism activities as it
relies on them. Across the world, more specifically in the global North, empirical studies
have demonstrated that even though there might be some losses due to climate, tourism
will endure (Fang, Yin & Wu 2018:110; Hall et al. 2015:108).

15
Given tourism's critical role, any climatic impact on it is disturbing (Dube & Nhamo
2018:120). In developing countries, tourism employs countless individuals and adds to
foreign currency generation and economic development (Hambira & Saarinen 2015:353;
Dube & Nhamo 2018:115).

Scott et al. (2016:12) call attention to the fact that there have been no climate change
impact studies regarding tourism, even though its impact on tourism in Africa has been
extreme (Pandy 2017:3; Pandy & Rogerson 2018:1586). Mushawemhuka, Rogerson and
Saarinen (2018:115), and Kilungu, Leemans, Nicholls and Amelung (2019:6), portray a
deficiency of empirical studies on the African continent on the impact of climate change
on tourism. Kilungu et al. (2019:7) further point out that most literature that has emerged
from the African continent in recent years has primarily undermined literature reviews that
add practically no incentive to the discussion.

Climate influences the tourism industry. It is pivotal in propelling tourists to the tourism
destinations (Sifolo & Henama 2017:48) they eventually choose. In Southern Africa,
climate change could bring about a three degrees Celsius temperature increase when a
new century rolls over (Serdeczny, Adams, Baarsch, Cumou, Robinson, Hare &
Reinhardt 2017:1586). The IPCC fifth assessment additionally declared that sub-Saharan
Africa’s temperature is anticipated to expand at the beginning of a new century. Due to
such temperature increases, some expected shifts include drastic changes in
precipitation patterns, increased malaria incidences, increased aridity, incidences of
drought, and a severe decrease in biodiversity (Dube & Nhamo 2019a:226). There are
uncertainties regarding future precipitation patterns as a General Circulation Model
(G.C.M.) produces systematic errors when modelling future climate in Africa (Dube
2018:23); the errors distort temperature, El Niño- Southern Oscillation, and the African
monsoons.

Dubois and Krasny (2016:255) note that climate has a paradoxical connection with
tourism. While climate can be an empowering agent of tourism activities, it also tends to
obstruct and threaten tourism. Thus, curtailing one of the most dynamic and promising
economic sectors in the sub-Saharan Africa (S.S.A.) region (Hambira & Saarinen

16
2015:355). According to Dube and Nhamo (2018:116), it does not need to take an
advanced area of study to comprehend why climate change’s impact on tourism has
created enthusiasm in recent years. Dube and Nhamo (2018:116) further state that
tourism climate change adaptation and mitigation studies will be challenging to take on
because of the truancy of climate change impact studies.

Wildlife is to African tourism what blood is to the body. Given Africa's dependence on
natural stock for its thriving tourism industry, climatic changes will severely impact the
tourism and agriculture sector (Dube 2018:23).

Across Africa, the approach of climate change and related weather-extreme events
present imminent danger (Midgley & Bond 2015:824). For South Africa and other tourism-
dependent African countries like Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe, to
mention a few, climate change threatens economic development. Climate variability and
change have already disturbed wildlife migration patterns; in turn, this has reduced the
variety of tourist attractions and upset tourism flow patterns (Dube & Nhamo 2018a:114;
Dube & Nhamo 2019a:8; Kilungu et al. 2019:11).

Climate change has prompted a few extreme weather events worldwide; one such
weather extreme is drought (Dube et al.2020:1). Although there is pressure on the world
to achieve net-zero emission by 2050, it is slowly becoming evident that this determined
objective might be nothing short of fantasy as the world is still not on course as far as its
carbon commitments targets (Dube et al. 2020:1). In 2020, the World Meteorological
Organization (2020:2) reported that in 2019, due to increases in carbon outflows within
the atmosphere, global temperatures had expanded by about 1.1°C compared to pre-
industrial levels. Global warming leading to climate change is faulted for the record
number of extreme weather events. These include wildfires, rising sea levels, heatwaves,
and extreme droughts (World Meteorological Organization 2020:2).

The World Bank (2019:1) reported that over $3 trillion had been lost to natural disasters.
According to the report, total damages had increased by more than 600%, from $23 billion
a year in the 1980s to $150 billion a year in the last decade. Natural disasters of various
sorts are devastatingly impacting the tourism sector (Rossello, Becken & Santana-

17
Gallego 2020:6). The increased recurrence and intensity of extreme weather events have
come at a considerable cost to the environment and social prosperity of communities.
This has affected the global destination images of many attractions (Becken, Mahon,
Rennie & Shakeela 2014:955). Given the tourism industry's susceptibility to extreme
weather events, there has been increased interest in recording the impact of such events.
Compared to the rest of the world, published literature on this in Africa is gradually
developing but still limited (Dube et al. 2020:2).

Discernment is a reality within the tourism industry (Dube & Nhamo 2020a:1), especially
regarding African tourism. Any advancements linked to the natural environment have a
potential swell impact on the aesthetics, activities and tourist perceptions of the
destination (Dube et al. 2020:2). The risk perception of a destination is what tourists
consider when choosing which destination to visit (Becken, Jin, Zhang & Gao 2017:130).
Becken et al. (2014:955) argue that the threats or perceptions of hazards have
implications on visitor streams. At times, many tourism resorts are found in potential
hazard areas (Jin, Qu & Bao 2019:334; Rossello et al. 2020:2).

When it comes to coastal tourism, Pelling and Uitto (2001:49) “sounded the clarion call
that due to global climate, coastal areas are particularly vulnerable against different
pressing factors, there is need to increase the levels of disaster risk reduction within the
tourism industry." Indeed, although the tourism industry remains vulnerable to several
extreme weather events, such as drought, it has seen an increase in research outputs on
disasters and tourism over the years (Rossello et al. 2020:2).

Characterised by rainfall all year round on its Southern coast, winter rainfall zone within
the south-west, summer rainfall conditions throughout the remainder of the country, and
a significant east-west reduction in precipitation, South Africa's climate is unusually
heterogeneous (Fitchett, Robison & Hoogendoorn 2017:851). Temperatures are
controlled by a complicated combination of latitude, altitude, aspect, and continentally,
with ocean currents further associating the variability between coastal regions
(Hoogendoorn & Fitchett 2018:744). However, the magnitude of warming diverges by two
degrees Celsius, the maximum heating strength centred in the country's north-west sector

18
and the lowest strength along the coastline. With climate change, a net temperature
increase is likely for the country (South African Weather Services 2021:3).

Climate change will negatively impact South African tourism industries through both the
increased and decreased precipitation associated with it. These issues are likely to cause
damage to tourism infrastructure and thereby reduce tourist satisfaction and the host
nation's ability to host tourists (Fitchett et al. 2016:8; Giddy, Fitchett & Hoogendoorn
2017:59). With climate change, tourists’ experiences in South Africa will most likely be
reduced through climatic experiences of excessive wind, high temperatures, constant
rain, high humidity, and freezing temperatures (Stockigt 2019:30). This will have negative
repercussions for tourism opportunities based on outdoor and natural attractions such as
numerous beaches, national parks, rivers, and mountainous hiking trails amongst others.
Because these natural attractions are directly affected by and highly susceptible to
climate change, the impact of climate change will be to lessen tourists' fascination with
South Africa as a tourism destination (Fitchett et al. 2016:360).

2.5 Climate change and coastal Tourism

An increase in the world's temperatures and mean sea surface temperatures and their
effect on polar ice has caused concerns over the impacts of such on coastal areas across
the world (Carvalho & Wang 2019:373). Due to the increase in temperature, there has
already been a swell in violent storms along most coastal areas. Evidence suggests that
this undermines and disturbs coastal tourism (Moreno & Becken 2009:473). Concerning
beach tourism, few studies have been conducted on the impact of climate change on
coastal tourism in the global south for quite a long time (Moreno & Becken 2009; Scott et
al. 2012).

Inland tourism is more critical in ratio and economic value than coastal tourism (Jarrat &
Davies, 2020:423). When it comes to the shoreline, “generally, the physical and social
distinctiveness of the coast will undoubtedly have held a couple of implications and
connotations through history, from fear to awe to nostalgia” (Gillis 2012:117; Jarrat &
Gammon 2016:123). Coastal tourism makes up quite a substantial portion of the world's
tourism. It encourages access to blue spaces, shaping our relationship with the coast

19
(Jarrat & Davies 2020:423). The UNWTO (2018:8) gauges that a significant number of
tourists annually visit coastal areas to participate in various coastal tourism activities.

In Africa, figures for coastal tourism appear far off. Conversely, in Europe, tourism is the
biggest employer in coastal areas inside the European Union, where 51% of all E.U. hotel
bed size is robust (Jarrat & Davies 2020:426). However, coastal districts account for only
15% of the E.U.'s arrival zone and 21% of its populace (European Commission 2017:3).
In 2015, seaside areas accounted for 39% of holiday nights in the U.K., attributing £3.84
billion in visitor spending (Visit Britain 2017:8).

While European governments and other bodies progressively perceive the blue economy,
which incorporates coastal tourism (European Commission 2017:3), this is not the case
in Africa. Consequently, there has been an increasing demand and need for a strategy to
tackle environmental constraints covering coastal areas, which are important to human
prosperity (White, Humphryes, Pahl, Snelling & Depledge 2010:485). According to Dube,
Nhamo, and Mearns (2020:88), there is also a need to deal with the challenge of ocean
contamination and poaching in aquatic protected areas to guarantee the sustainability of
the coastal tourism industry.

In the coming decades, coastal areas will absorb crucial environmental threats such as
sea-level rise (SLR) and increased extreme weather events resulting from human-
induced climate change (Jarrat & Davies 2020:426). Investigations of modelling national
emissions contributions stemming from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement continue to
cause academics to drift towards a three to four degrees celsius rise above pre-industrial
levels, with an expected SLR and extreme weather plus melting of Antarctic ice shelves
and Greenland (DeConto, Pollard & Gasson 2018:1159). This could lead to extreme
weather events such as those recently seen in the USA in a coastal national park
destination where SLR and storm surges acted synergistically to amplify coastal problems
(DeConto et al. 2018:1160). With direct and indirect consequences on tourism, such
changes will start wide-going socio-economic impacts (Jarrat & Davies, 2020:426).
Climate change and imbalance of opportunity are anticipated on a large scale. The main
impacts and ruin are primarily small island states communities and least developed

20
countries, especially in parts of South-East Asia and Africa. The result will be population
displacement and massive economic costs (Rogerson 2016:322).

For the tourism industry, the impacts of climate change on coastal regions create severe
consequences (Atzori, Fyall & Miller 2018:12). However, notwithstanding studies on the
tourism properties and economic activities in coastal areas, there is a shortage of tourism
studies related to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in coastal tourism
destinations (Scott et al. 2012:213). This is despite considerable proof that weather and
climate affect tourist motivation to travel to coastal areas and partake in coastal tourism
activities (Cocolas, Walters & Ruhanen 2016:846).

Destination choices for coastal tourism destinations are primarily shaped by prevailing
weather and expected climate for the area (Steiger, Abegg & Janicke 2016:12). This, in
turn, affects destination attractiveness and spending respectively (Gossling, Abegg &
Steiger 2016:113) While the climate-tourism nexus is incredibly intense for beach tourism,
where climate has been more than once perceived as a basic force factor, the relationship
between climate and tourism is very much archived (Rossello & Waqas 2016:193). It is
heavily documented that the relationship between climate and tourism is profoundly vital
for beach tourists; regardless, the quality and properties of this relationship shift
geographically and temporally (Rutty & Scott 2016:15).

Coastal regions and beaches are the most vulnerable touristic destinations to climate
change (Jenkins 2018:313). This is because they experience various climate change-
related implications (Scott et al. 2016:9), such as changes in precipitation temperature
and the diverse force of waves that influence beach tourism (Hoogendoorn & Fitchett
2018:750). SLR extreme events and increased water stress are also viewed as significant
implications for beach tourism (Scott et al. 2016:12).

SLR is projected to influence the beach tourism sector (Santos-Lacueva, Clave & Saladie
2017:12). Regarding the beach sector in South Africa, Fitchett et al. (2016:5) and
Hoogendoorn et al. (2016:59) have shown what this could mean for Cape St. Francis and
St. Francis Bay and beach tourism destinations. According to Fitchett et al. (2016:6),
conservatively speaking, Cape St. Francis will lose part of its beach by 2050 and the

21
whole beach by 2100. Any accommodation establishments built close to the beach are at
high risk of flooding and storms. This aligns with Palmer, Van der Elst, Mackay, Mather,
Smith and Bundy (2011:1390), who found swim beaches to be the most vulnerable to
climate change-induced SLR and erosion. The beaches along the KwaZulu-Natal
coastline would fall into those with a very high coastal vulnerability index (Palmer et al.
2011:1391). Consequently, Hoogendoorn et al. (2016:59) are calling for adaptation
strategies in the beach tourism sector of Cape St. Francis and St. Francis Bay if they are
not to lose economic income due to climate change.

Few studies conducted so far have been on sub-Saharan Africa (Hoogendoorn & Fitchett
2018:740; Pandy 2017:13). These studies discovered that when faced with such issues
as extreme events, beach tourists in South Africa cancel their trips (Giddy et al. 2017:61;
Fitchett et al. 2016:3). Research on Trip Advisor surveys shows that domestic tourists are
more worried about the climate than international ones (Hoogendoorn & Fitchett
2018:745). According to the Department of Tourism (2019:26), sea levels have already
begun rising along South Africa's coastline, posing a major threat to coastal cities like
Durban. Furthermore, Durban being a coastal city, the impact of climate change on sea
level rise and the increase of coastal storms would directly impact its economy,
infrastructure, and communities. However, an empirical study covering all significant
beach tourism destinations in South Africa is currently missing. Such gaps present an
opportunity to understand tourist reactions to climate change (Scott et al. 2015:913).

2.6 Mitigation and adaptation measures

Over the past two decades, an extensive study on the relationship between tourism and
climate change has been conducted, with a focus on concerns of mitigation and
adaptation in the global North (Hoogendoorn & Fitchett 2018:7). According to Shakeela
and Becken (2015:65), the current state of climate change is unavoidable and is only
becoming worse because prior environmental impacts and emissions were unchecked.
They also emphasize the necessity for the tourism sector to implement adaptation and
mitigation measures that aim to enhance and sustain the wellness of the environment in
which tourism operates (Shakeela & Becken 2015:65). The importance of mitigating and
adapting to climate change with regards to the law and science is that South Africa is

22
exceptionally susceptible and exposed to climate change in its socio-economic as well as
the environmental context (Department of Environmental Affairs 2015:8). Climate change
mitigation and adaptation will enable the country to respond successfully to the impacts
posed by climate change and extreme weather events.

Climate change adaptation needs a thorough knowledge regarding the exposure of

environmental systems as well as the strategic growth and management alternatives to
enhance the adaptive capacity of the techniques to deal with the outcomes of climate
change (Joyce, Briskie, Brown, Polley & Maccarlr 2018:516). Consequently, the
importance of adaptation measures to climate change indicates the necessity of climate-
smart tourism operations to reduce the negative impact of climate change on the
environment and tourism business operations (Elum, Modise & Marr 2017:248).

Climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are critical when responding to
climate change impacts on the tourism industry (Zhao, Yan, Wang, Tang, Wu, Ding &
Song 2018:83). Responding to climatic variations can be reached by successfully
merging emissions reductions and facilitating adaptation strategies (Zhao et al. 2018:85).
Climate change adaptation needs a thorough knowledge regarding the exposure of the
environmental systems as well as the strategic growth and management alternatives to
enhance the adaptive capacity of the systems to deal with the outcomes of climate change
(Joyce et al. 2018:516). Consequently, the importance of adaptation measures to climate
change indicates the necessity of climate change on the environment and tourism
business operations (Elum et al. 2017:248).

The common mitigation and adaptation measures is South Africa include adopting
companies (including tourism companies) to reduce their carbon emission and utilising
the national outcomes of mitigation measures can be evaluated (Department of
Environmental Affairs 2015:5). In the biodiversity or natural environment sector, the
government’s mitigation and adaptation measure to climate change involve expanding
protected areas and national parks in their adaptation planning process to respond to
climate change (Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism 2018:30).

23
Despite those mentioned above, most adaptation strategies still focus on minimising
sensitivity to daily climatic display by preventing risk, advancing recognition systems, and
managing water demand (Ziervogel & Zermoglio 2015:133). According to Ziervogel et al.
(2015:6), South Africa lacks practical knowledge and land expertise regarding climate
change adaptation tracking and assessment. However, the government has prioritised
this issue at the national level and is participating in research to investigate the design,
procedures and implementation systems to observe and monitor adaptation strategies to
climate change (Doria, Boyd, Tompkins & Adger 2019:810).

Climate change mitigation is also a significant concern in protected areas. Mitigating

climate change in response to climate change in the nature reserves and wildlife sector
includes adopting effective use of fossil fuels and renewable energy such as solar and
wind power and expanding the forest areas to remove more greenhouse gases
(especially carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere (Kupika, Gandiwa, Kativu & Nhamo
2016:14).

2.7 Chapter Summary

It has emerged from this chapter that, just as it does in other parts of the country, tourism
plays an important role in the economic affairs of KwaZulu-Natal Province. Regardless of
the immense contribution of tourism to Durban, judging from recent research, like other
destinations in the region that rely on nature tourism, the industry remains vulnerable to
extreme weather events. Since the climate is a major resource that shapes and drives
tourism's prosperity, it is assumed that climate change will affect the tourism industry
unfavourably. With the increase in temperature, there has also been an increase in violent
storms in coastal areas. These storms undermine and disturb coastal tourism.
Consequently, there has been an increasing demand and need for a strategy to protect
coastal areas; however, over-tourism and climate change, prologue to this environment,
have progressively been perceived as important to human prosperity. However,
notwithstanding the great value of tourism studies in coastal areas, there remains a
shortage of tourism studies related to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in
coastal tourism destinations such as Durban in KwaZulu-Natal. Therefore, the following

24
chapter will discuss the research design and procedures involved in this research’s data
gathering.

25
Chapter 3: Research Methodology

3.1 Introduction
This chapter describes the research process as it relates to information on the
methodologies utilised and the rationale for the methods used. The main aim of this study
was to examine the climate change impacts on coastal tourism in Durban. Given the
demands of this study, a mixed-methods approach was considered suitable for data
collection and analysis.

3.2 Study Area

The research was carried out in the eThekwini Municipality, Durban – a coastal city in
KwaZulu-Natal Province (Figure 3.1). It is in the Maputaland-Pondoland Albany region,
which has been identified as one of 34 global biodiversity hotspots (eThekwini
Municipality 2019:1). The area is quite interesting from a biogeographic perspective as it
is home to some 2270 plant species, of those, 379 species are endemic to South Africa.
It also has 526 bird species, 82 mammal species and 69 reptile species (eThekwini
Municipality 2019:1). The study area has a sensitive ecosystem with 18 river catchments
and a combined length of rivers measuring 4000km, 16 estuaries, 76 invertebrates, and
44 fish species (eThekwini Municipality 2019:3). Home to about 3.7 million South
Africans, Durban is under threat from global climate change.

26
Figure 3. 1: Location of Durban, South Africa and some of its main beaches. Source: Roberts (2008)

Located in KwaZulu-Natal, it features a 600km subtropical beach line (SA Venues

2021:1). As of 2020, Durban hosts four out of the 48 Blue Flag Beaches in South Africa
and four out of the 12 Blue Flag Beaches in KwaZulu Natal Province (WESSA 2020:4).
These beaches include Amanzimtoti beach, the North Beach Umhlanga Rocks, Umdloti
Beach, and South Beachfront. The beaches are central to the province's socio-economic
development, and the city is one of the key tourism destinations in South Africa.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Durban received about 4.2 million domestic tourists and
around 2.3 million international tourists per year (Operation Phakisa 2020:20). The
coastal areas of eThekwini have a higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than other
areas. Field observations revealed that several key bars, restaurants, hotels, and
conference facilities are lined along the coastline. Some overlook the beach areas known
as Durban’s Golden Mile. This renders them vulnerable to coastal vulnerability surges
and flooding on an occasional basis.

27
Regarding climate and climatic threats, as a coastal city that shares a coastline with the
Indian Ocean, Durban is generally warm throughout the year. This makes it an ideal
beach tourism destination. The Durban metro identifies SLR as one of the key threats to
tourism in the city. Coastal storms, flooding and coastal erosion are also considered a
threat to the city’s infrastructure. Due to climate change, rainfall is expected to increase
in frequency and intensity. As shown in Figure 3.2, this will further worsen the challenges
faced by Durban due to increased climate change (eThekwini Municipality 2019:26).
Given these anticipated climate change challenges and threats to the economy, Durban
has been making efforts to preserve and conserve its ocean coastline by adopting various
climate mitigation and resilience mechanisms.

Figure 3. 2: Current and future rainfall projections for Durban. Source: eThekwini Municipality (2019:26).

3.3 Research Paradigm

Given the complexity of this study, a pragmatic theoretical framework was used to inform
the hypothetical underpinnings of this mixed-methods study. In ways that reflect
pragmatism as a paradigm for social research, mixed-methods research emphasizes the
use of research methodologies. (Morgan 2014:1045). It combines seriousness with the
conceptual foundations of pragmatism (Morgan 2014:1045). For example, several

28
authors provide distinguishing proof of the pragmatic paradigm with mixed-methods
research (Alise & Teddlie 2010:104; Mertens 2010:470; Hall 2013:15; Cresswell 2014:3).

In social research, the term paradigm refers to the core set of beliefs that influence the
researcher’s activities or philosophical assumptions and determine the researcher’s
perspective (Lincoln, Lynham & Guba 2011:97). The term paradigm was coined by Kuhn
(1970:48) to describe a community of specialists’ common theories, beliefs, and ideas
about the nature of reality and knowledge.

As a research paradigm, pragmatism is centred on the methodological technique that

works best for a research problem being investigated and the proposition researchers
should use (Kaushik & Walsh 2019:2). Pragmatism is usually associated with multiple or
mixed-method research (Morgan 2014:1046) where the focus is on the research
questions and their consequences than on methods.

Revez and Borges (2019:586) assert that a researcher who adopts a pragmatic paradigm
benefits from having the option to select the approaches they utilize to accomplish their
goals based only on how well they address a specific research topic from an
epistemological standpoint. Pragmatism as a research paradigm refuses to get involved
in contentious metaphysical concepts such as truth and reality (Kaushik & Walsh 2019:3).
Rather, it acknowledges that there can be single or various real factors that are available
to empirical inquiry (Cresswell & Plano-Clark 2011:53). For quite a long time, tourism
studies have failed to adapt to one comprehensive research paradigm philosophy (Dube,
Mearns, Mini & Chapungu 2018:3). According to Pansiri (2006:191) given the difficulty of
the research they undertake, academics recommend that in the tourism field researchers
should select pragmatism as a theoretical framework for research.

3.4 Research design

An embedded mixed-method approach was used with the theoretical approach
established for this study. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were simultaneously
applied. As a result, the researcher was able to address a variety of questions in this
cross-disciplinary study. The embedded mixed-method research design allowed the
researcher to apply qualitative and quantitative research approaches without being limited

29
to one (Maree 2016:313). According to Maree (2016:313), an embedded mixed-method
approach is a procedure of collecting, analysing and combining qualitative and
quantitative research designs to understand a research problem fully. The secondary data
set may be collected and analysed before, during, or possibly after the data gathering
and analysis techniques normally associated with the bigger design are implemented (Yu
& Khazanchi 2017:558). To answer the research question, the embedded approach
integral statistical patterns in the form of climate data were combined with personal
experiences. Figure 3.3 illustrates the mixed-method research process that was used in
this study.

Figure 3. 3: The research process using an embedded mixed-method design. Source: Edmonds and
Kennedy (2017:189).

3.4.1 Case Study Research

A case study research approach was utilised for this study. According to McCombes
(2020:1), a case study is an appropriate research design when you want to gain concrete,
logical and in-depth knowledge about a specific real-world subject. Yin (2014:20) gives
an operational definition that a case study research approach allows the researcher to
address the how what, and why research questions in a real-life context. The researcher
assumed a formal position and used a comprehensive observation strategy based on two
principles: a broad look at the study area with an open-minded attitude, as recommended
by Verschuren (2003:121).

According to Rahi (2017:3), a case study technique is a written description of a problem

or situation. It presents problems for small groups or focuses on a specific topic. As shown
in Figure 3.4, Rashid, Rashid, Warraich, Sabir and Waseem (2019:5) established a

30
framework to explain case study research and its role. This framework was critical in
developing this study's research framework and theories.

Case studies

Purpose: Understanding Purpose: Understanding

theory better the case better

Theory Theory Atheoritical Interpretive

Building refinement
Inductive Descriptive Deductive

Figure 3. 4: Breakdown of the purposes of case study research. Source: Rashid, Rashid, Warraich, Sabir
and Waseem (2019:5).

The case study research was favoured because it permitted the researcher to analyse
contemporary viewpoints or occasions over which the researcher has little to no control.
The researcher also employed this approach because case studies are bounded by time
and activity.

A case study is considered a favourable approach to researching the impact of climate

change on a tourist destination since it is mainly unique to that particular destination. This
approach has also been deployed in similar tourism and climate change study by Kilungu
et al. (2019:7). Utilising qualitative and quantitative research approaches is permitted
when using a case study approach.

Utilising case study research, therefore, this researcher attempted to answer the following
questions: (i) What are tourism stakeholders’ experiences and perceptions of climate
change impact on coastal tourism in Durban? (ii) What is the trend of various weather
extreme events impacting coastal tourism in Durban? (iii) What is the impact of climate
change on tourism infrastructure and Durban’s response to its threats?

31
3.4.2 Sampling and Population
Hair, Celsi, Money and Samouel (2015:165) describe the target population as a complete
group of objects or elements to which a research project applies. According to Maree
(2016:198), sampling implies using a sufficiently representative sample of a target
population. Purposive and random sampling techniques were employed to identify
tourists and key informants who formed part of this research. The gatekeeper of the
eThekwini Municipality provided guidance. According to Etikan and Bala (2017:215), a
purposive sampling design depends on the researcher’s judgement as to who will likely
provide the best information given a study's objectives. As such, purposive sampling is a
non-probability method and occurs when “elements selected for the sample are chosen
by the researcher's judgement” (Saunders & Thornhill 2012:288).

Conversely, the purposive sampling method can only prove to be effective when only
restricted quantities of individuals serve as primary data sources. This method was
selected to select key informant interviewees because it is one of the most cost-effective
and time-effective sampling methods. It was also an appropriate method for this study
since only a few primary data sources were available to contribute to the study (Saunders
et al. 2012:289).

Random sampling was also applied to reinforce the research design to achieve the
study's aims and objectives. Random sampling allows every individual in the population
to have exactly an equal chance of being selected (Lauren 2020:1). For this study,
random sampling was chosen for the administration of questionnaires as it allowed the
researcher to question people from the target population available at the time and willing
to take part in the research. It also eliminates sampling bias (McLeod 2019:5).

According to Cossham and Johanson (2019:12), knowledgeable individuals who

contribute a perspective on a research phenomenon or situation that the researchers
themselves lack are referred to as key informants. They know much about a concept or
situation, group, culture, or subject insider information that they are willing to share with
a researcher, and they provide a perspective that the researcher could not otherwise
obtain (Cossham & Johanson 2019:12).

32
These key informants were selected based on their role in the municipality, which is
informed by their expertise and knowledge of climate change and tourism phenomena in
the eThekwini metropolitan area. It was advantageous for the researcher to use key
informant interviews as they are an affordable way to acquire a higher perspective thought
of a situation also, the information gathered comes from people who have pertinent
knowledge and insight as they allow for new and anticipated issues and ideas to emerge
(Cossham & Johanson 2019:33).

Regarding sample sizes for key informants, Kumar (2014:12) advises that 15 to 35 key
informants are adequate for most studies as a rule of thumb. However, fewer key
informants can suffice if the investigation combines data collection methods such as
surveys, document content analysis, and key informant interviews.

For this study, key informant interviews generated data from 10 key informants from the
eThekwini municipality. Key informants were selected based on their role in the city,
informed by their expertise and knowledge in climate change and tourism phenomena in
the eThekwini metropolitan area. In this regard, key informants included directors and top
officials from the climate change department, coastal engineering, city planning, tourism
personnel and conservationists. In addition, four senior community members who had
grown up in the city were also consulted because of their rich knowledge and history of
the area.

Given that the study was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was not feasible
to interact with a huge group of personnel as this would have over-exposed both the
respondents and the researcher to the virus. The municipality’s gatekeeper gave
permission to conduct the research and assisted in identifying possible key informants.

3.5 Data Collection Tools

Various data collection tools were utilised to ensure that all research questions were
adequately answered. These included in-depth interviews, online questionnaires, field
observations, as well as archival and secondary data analysis. Since the data was
collected during the COVID-19 period the researcher and the participants protected

33
themselves through masks and a sanitizer. All data was collected simultaneously during
fieldwork in March 2021.

3.5.1 In-depth Interviews

According to Maree (2020:110), interviews seek to see the world through the eyes of the
respondent. In-depth interviews are a data collection approach used in the social sciences
to expose other people’s opinions, descriptions, and viewpoints on the studied topic
(Jentoft & Olsen 2019:182). When the study's respondents did not grasp the question,
this method was used for more explanation and inquiry. The researcher could also
rearrange the questions while at the same time retaining the natural flow (Kumar 2014:3)
of the interaction.

In addition, due to COVID-19 regulations, in-depth interviews were also deployed to

collect information from key informants. Such in-depth interviews aimed to gain insights
into the trends, impact and response to some of the extreme weather events. Through in-
depth interviews, the study also sought to learn how various climatic elements interact
with and affects tourism in the Durban area. A complete set of the interview questions
used during the interviews is attached in Annexure A.

In-depth interviews were conducted in March 2021 at Durban in various municipal offices
dotted in and around the eThekwini area. Interviewees were selected based on their role
and function in the tourism space. The researcher's initial point of contact was the city’s
gatekeeper, who paved the way for communication with the city's key personnel best
placed and able to respond to the research’s questions. Prior arrangements were made
to secure interviews with the key informants.

Once identified, an interview guide was furnished to the key informants to allow them to
prepare their responses in an informed and coordinated manner. The interview guide
comprised 19 questions on the impact of extreme weather on coastal tourism and climate
change trends. These in-depth interviews took, on average, 45 minutes to an hour.

Participation in the interview was voluntary, and the legal rights of respondents were
ensured by way of informed consent (Annexure?). Questions were posed during the

34
interviews, and follow-up questions were made to allow for a deeper understanding of the
issues in a probing manner. The researcher took some notes during the interviews, and
all respondents agreed to audio recordings. Such recordings were made using a mobile
phone application for reference and transcription purposes.

3.5.2 Field Observations

Field observations were also undertaken to gain a deeper understanding and insights into
the issues under study and for triangulation and internal and external validity purposes.
Field observations were used to collect data. This is because they include respondents’
observations and cover ethnography and research work in the field (Maree 2020:171).
According to Maree (2020:105), as a data-gathering method, field observations enable
the researcher to gain greater in-depth insight into and understand the observed
phenomenon.

Field observations were conducted along the coastline of Durban’s beaches. Namely,
Amanzimtoti beach, eThekwini Botanical Gardens, the North Beach Umhlanga Rocks,
Umdloti Beach, and South Beachfront. They were conducted in the form of walks along
the beachfront during March of 2021, pictures and videos of the affected areas on the
beaches were taken, and all observations were collected in a detailed manner. The field
observations aimed to take a closer look at coastal erosion and ocean tides at the
beachfront to understand the tourism context and to investigate some of the most
vulnerable areas. During the observations, remedial measures were examined to protect
tourism infrastructure and some evidence of, for example, aspects of coastal erosion were
recorded. The field observations provided a critical narrative to triangulate with other data
sources later.

3.5.3 Self-administered Online Questionnaires

A questionnaire is defined as a list of questions to address a research question or
questions (Kumar 2014:5). In line with a mixed-method approach, an online questionnaire
comprising closed- and open-ended questions was administered in Durban. The online
questionnaire was uploaded on a tablet with Question-Pro software, with 17 questions,
and a handheld tablet was used to administer it to the respondent. Data collection through

35
self-administered online surveys has the potential to collect large amounts of data
efficiently, economically, and within relatively short time frames (Greenland, Senn,
Rothman, Carlin, Goodman & Altman 2016:63).

Consent using a button click as agreement to proceed with the survey was used (See
Annexure B). On average, it took about 10 minutes to complete the questionnaire aimed
at gathering information on respondent's views on (i) how climate change is affecting
coastal tourism visiting trends and activities in Durban, (ii) their experiences on the impact
of climate change on coastal tourism and (iii) if there are any measures that have been
put in place to deal with multiple weather extreme events that have affected the area in
the recent past. In total, 302 responses were collected.

3.5.4 Archival Data

According to Jones (2010:1008), archival data might consider any information recently
gathered by others and compliant with systematic study. Archival data analysis captures
real-time information and maintains previous measurements for retrievals and
visualisation (Stehle & Kitchin 2020:354). Archival data analysis of tidal activity for Durban
was undertaken for the period 1971-2018 for purposes of gaining insights into the trend
and impacts of SLR on beaches and tourism infrastructure. The archival data was
obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which had
obtained it from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PMSL). Initially, the data
was sullied by the South African Hydrographic Office, which is mandated to collect and
store such data. Data completeness for the station is 71 percent for the period under
study.

3.5.5 Secondary data

Secondary data analysis is the analysis of data collected by other people for another
primary purpose (Johnston 2014:619). The use of secondary data analysis is increasing,
given its broad access to archived records in today’s digital time (Middleton, Beaman,
Blyth, Hughes, Neale, Philips & Salter 2014:54). This method was selected because of
its ability to provide the researcher with extensive data sets, which will not ordinarily be
possible for primary research (Chow & Kennedy 2014:57). Secondary data was

36
conducted to triangulate information on Durban’s response to the threats of climate
change on coastal tourism. The data was collected from the Ethekwini municipality
engineering unit.

3.6 Ethical Considerations

The significance of ethics was considered during the planning and reporting of research
findings and fieldwork. The research was carried out in line with the faculty of the Human
Sciences Ethics Committee of the Vaal University of Technology
(FREC/HS/02/10/2020/6.1.1), as shown in Annexure C.

Approval to conduct research was also granted from the eThekwini Municipality
(Annexure?). The fieldwork was only undertaken upon obtaining ethics approval from the
university. A thorough briefing of the aim and objectives of the study was outlined with the
key informants to obtain approval. A consent letter to conduct the study was sought from
the manager of eThekwini Municipality. Participation in the study was strictly on the
grounds of anonymity. No personal data was collected. Informed consent (Annexure?)
and voluntary participation were underpinned by the research on the respondents’ side.
The non-collection of individuals' names also ensured confidentiality and anonymity.

The reporting of findings was aggregated to avoid any tracebacks. Data was converted
into encrypted electronic files for use in this research report. Only the supervisor and the
student have and will ever have sole access to the data. It will be appropriately destroyed
after five years of the research report’s submission. No minors or vulnerable groups of
people participated in this research. Respondents were restricted to the ages of 18 and
above.

3.7 Data Analysis

Thematic analysis theory (Braun & Clarke) guided the data analysis process. It dictates
the generation of analysis through a bottom-up approach with the researcher's standpoint
in the analysis and field knowledge and epistemology (Braun & Clarke 2006:77). The
researcher followed the steps required for transcribing the in-depth interview data such
as close observation of data through repeated careful listening and watching (Bailey
2008:129)

37
Data for the analysis was prepared by transcribing audio data, typing up field notes and
sorting the data into different types according to the information sources for the
researcher to identify preliminary codes. Relevant data extracts related to codes to
explore if they support the theme were done through thematic analysis. This was done
considering the aim, objectives, and research questions. Each identified theme was then
named and described to start with analysing and capturing the data using Microsoft Excel
spreadsheets in the form of graphs, charts, and tables.

According to Robson (2011:321), quantitative data analysis may include the calculation
of frequencies of variables and differences between variables. The research was
analysed and processed using descriptive research and using basic calculations. This
was done to find the minimum or most minor selected responses and the averages for
each quantitative question in the questionnaire (Saunders & Thornhill 2012:331). The
capability of Question-Pro was used to convert the numerous quantitative values
collected as responses (from questionnaires and archival material) into percentages that
could be analyzed and compared. Closed questions were examined in near real-time
using the built-in function on Question-Pro. Open-ended questions were analysed using
Question-Pro text analysis. The findings have been graphically communicated through
various graphs and tables. These graphs and tables were created using excel basic
calculations and Microsoft word to highlight the most common or relevant factors.

Quantitative data, such as archival data, were analysed using XLSTAT running on Mann-
Kendall Trend Analysis to conduct a time-series analysis and test the significance of
changes to tidal activity in the city. Despite the Mann-Kendall being unable to give the
structure of a trend (negatives tend to cancel the positives), it is widely used and accepted
for use in detecting a change in environmental parameters such as hydrology and climate
data (Pohlert 2018:5). The findings were graphically communicated using various graphs
and tables. These graphs and tables were created using basic calculations in Excel and
in Word to highlight the most common or relevant factors.

38
3.8 Challenges in Data Collection
While collecting data, the researcher encountered such challenges as tourists who were
not interested in participating in the study because they were there to enjoy their leisure
time and not to be interviewed. Due to the English-Zulu language barrier, the researcher
had to translate some questions from English to Zulu for some respondents to understand
the questions thoroughly. Consequently, some of the findings were possibly lost in
translation. COVID-19 lockdown restrictions posed a significant challenge as the
researcher could not contact several key respondents because most were working from
home due to their unavailability.

3.9 Internal and External validity

Internal and external validity are ideas that reflect whether the results of the study are
trustworthy and meaningful (Cuncic 2021:1). According to Streefkerk (2020:1), internal
validity refers to “the degree of confidence that the causal relationship being tested is
trustworthy and not influenced by other factors or variables.” Streefkerk (2020:1) further
states that external validity refers to the extent to which results from a study can be
applied to other situations, groups, or events. To ensure internal and external validity, the
research tools were pre-tested to check question consistency with the supervisor and
friends. Where possible, adjustments were made for internal and external validity
purposes. To ensure external validity, triangulation and paralleling of the procedure were
conducted (Hanumanthappa 2014:56).

3.10 Chapter Summary

This chapter has outlined the research design and procedures involved in this research's
data gathering. Starting with the primary and secondary sources, it has provided a step-
by-step guide to the process. The study was ethically undertaken with permission from
the Faculty of Human Sciences Ethics Committee of the Vaal University of Technology
and the eThekwini Municipality, respectively. It took a case study research approach and
applied a pragmatism paradigm theoretical framework. The researcher utilised purposive
and random sampling techniques to find optimal participants for the study. The researcher
used data-gathering methods such as self-completion online questionnaires, field
observations, archival data and in-depth interviews to gather data for the research

39
questions. Data was analysed using Question-Pro, XLSTAT, and Mann-Kendal Trend
Analysis, all guided by a thematic analysis method. The final section of the chapter
focuses on the challenges of data collection and reliability and validity (quality assurance).
The following chapter contains the interpretation and discussion of the results.

40
Chapter 4: Results and Discussions
4.1 Introduction
The findings and reports of this chapter are a culmination of a tourist survey that was
conducted in 2021 and gathered views from primarily domestic tourists, excursionists,
and some international tourists totalling 302. This chapter seeks to answer the first
research question of this study research. It discusses the results of tourists’ perceptions
regarding climate change in Durban. The chapter also documents observations and
perceptions on the impact of climate change on coastal tourism in Durban (eThekwini).
The chapter is organised as follows: the first part assesses tourists’ perceptions of the
impacts of climate change on Durban, and the last details the vulnerabilities of the
destination to climate change as viewed by tourists.

Perception is how a person processes, interprets and gathers information from the
environment (Haralayya 2021:26). Climate and weather-related events affect tourism
operations and have a central bearing on tourist travel behaviour (Denstadli & Jacobsen
2011:781). In order to get the opinions of the most significant stakeholders in tourism,
surveys of visitor perception are essential. This is mainly because they assist in gauging
future responses and market trends as climate change unravels.

13%

10%
Yes
No
I am not sure

77%

Figure 4. 1: Tourist contribution to climate change. Source: Author.

41
Respondents were asked if they thought tourists contributed to climate change, as shown
in Figure 4.1. Of these, 77% agreed that tourists do contribute to climate change.
However, 13% responded that they were unsure. At the same time, the remaining 10%
said no. Similar studies have been conducted by Dube et al. (2018) and Dube and Nhamo
(2020a), who underscored the importance of such studies in the tourism industry. Tourist
perceptions, satisfaction levels, and experiences are crucial to the tourism industry's
success. This is because these variables significantly impact tourism destinations and
decision-making (Pestana, Parreira & Moutinho 2020:12). Furthermore, weather and
climate change conditions can directly impact tourist perceptions, satisfaction levels and
experiences (Caldeira & Kastenholz 2018:1516). Tourists’ willingness to adjust to shifting
weather conditions depends on their knowledge and expertise with the destination. The
responses to the above question suggest that tourists generally perceive tourism as
contributing to climate change - having a significant impact on tourist decisions to return
to a destination.

4.2 Durban Tourism Exposure and Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events.

Concern over climate change is widespread but is especially acute on the African
continent (Pandve, Chawla, Fernandez & Singru 2015:16). For this study, Durban is also
susceptible to climate change. Pandve et al. (2015:16) assert that vulnerability is a
consequence of two elements: capacity, or social vulnerability, which refers to the
potential effects of an event on humans, and exposure, which refers to the risk that an
extreme event may occur. Human activities are regarded as the primary cause of climate
sensitivity and vulnerability (Pandve et al. 2015:17). Therefore, this chapter seeks to
present findings on Durban’s exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events.

42
 Enjoy the beaches Leisure tourist Conference attendance
Business Tourist Enjoying other nature resorts Others specify
Visiting Friends and relatives
45%
40%
40%

35%

30% 28%

25%

20%

15% 12%
10%
10%
6%
5% 2% 2%
0%

Figure 4. 2: Reasons for visiting Durban. Source: Author.

The study captured the views of tourists and emerged that the tourism market is
conscious of the vulnerabilities imposed by extreme weather events in Durban. This
survey gathered data from excursionists who are residents of Durban and surrounding
areas (28%) and other tourists from outside Durban, who constituted the remainder. As
Durban excursionists or frequent tourists, at least 64% of respondents can be considered
to be quite familiar with the destinations. At least 36% of the tourists had visited Durban
on more than five occasions, while 36% had visited Durban for the first time. When asked
about their reasons for visiting Durban, the single most dominant reason cited was to
enjoy the beaches in Durban (see Figure 4.2 above). Therefore, Durban's beaches are
one of the major tourist attractions.

When asked about the weather conditions in Durban, a significant number of respondents
indicated that the weather in Durban could be considered acceptable most of the time
(45% of respondents). Another 47% described the weather as either hot and humid or too
hot and humid. The eThekwini Municipality (2019:7) reported that temperatures in the city
have been showing an increasing trend. Between 1996 and 2016, the average
temperature for the metro rose from 19.8°C to about 21.4°C. Such an increase is

43
worrying, particularly for a coastal town and is likely to result in a demand for air
conditioning. It can be argued that the weather in Durban is largely conducive to beach-
going.

rising sea level Heat waves raging sea tides

Coastal Flooding intense rainfall events severe storms
General Flooding Extreme winds tornadoes
Droughts Other
25%
20%
20% 18%
16%
15% 12%
9% 9%
10%
6% 5% 4%
5%
1% 0%
0%
1

Figure 4. 3: Climatic challenges faced by Durban. Source: Author.

Figure 4.3 shows weather-related climatic challenges faced by Durban from a tourist
perspective. Coastal flooding, rising sea-level, increased tidal activity, and increased
heat-waves were highlighted as critical threats to the coastal city of Durban. Other
scholars who bemoaned the effects of such events on beaches in Durban also confirmed
the threat of coastal flooding and storms in Durban (Chikodzi, Dube & Ngcobo 2021:127).

Tourists were asked to rank the level of vulnerability to various weather events. From the
ranking, 287 tourist respondents indicated that Durban is vulnerable to a rising sea-level.
292 tourist respondents also noted that the destination is vulnerable to extremely high
temperatures. At least 288 tourist respondents identified a slight vulnerability to excessive
flooding. It is important to note that similar events have been closely linked to climate
change and sea-level rising in other tourist destinations such as Cape Town (Dube,
Nhamo & Chikodzi 2021).

When tourists were asked about the level of Durban’s coastal tourism exposure to sea-
level rise, only about one percent of the respondents indicated that Durban is not

44
vulnerable to rising sea levels (Figure 4.4 below). This shows that there is generally an
increasing worry and concern about the perceived impact of sea-level rise on coastal
tourism. It also indicates consciousness of the threat and impact of climate change on
tourism.

Vulnerable Extremely Vulnerable Slightly vulnerable

Not sure Not vulnerable
60% 56%

50%

40%
32%
30%

20%

9%
10%
2% 1%
0%

Mean : 1.610 | Confidence Interval @ 95% : [1.513 - 1.707] | Standard Deviation : 0.837 | Standard Error : 0.049

Figure 4. 4: Durban coastal tourism exposure to Sea-Level Rise. Source: Author.

In a follow-up question on how the impact of climate change can affect coastal tourism,
78% of the tourist respondents answered that they believe the rising sea-level is a threat
to beach tourism in Durban, whereas 12% were unsure. The remaining 10% said they did
not think SLR threatened beach tourism in the city. The respondents also noted that SLR
has a significant impact on coastal tourism in Durban, with the erosion of beaches topping
the observed impact of SLR on coastal tourism, as shown in Figure 4.5 below.

45
 erosion of beaches coastal erosion
Destruction of beach roads damage to holiday resorts
increased coastal flooding Other

35%
30%
30%
26%
25%
20%
20%
14%
15%

10% 8%

5% 2%

0%

Figure 4. 5: Impact of Sea-Level Rise on coastal tourism. Source: Author

Most (79%) of the respondents agreed they fear climate change will likely worsen the
problems that Durban faces as a city and a tourist destination. In response to another
question aimed at understanding the perception of tourists on the impact of climate
change on Durban as a destination, 72% of tourists in Durban felt that climate change will
limit the ability of Durban to offer quality tourism experiences if climate change impacts
are to worsen (see Figure 4.6 below). This means that there is a need to prioritise and
hasten climate change mitigation by Durban’s eThekwini Municipality if tourism is to
remain sustainable.

46
 Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly agree Strongly disagree

70% 66%

60%

50%

40%

30%
20%
20%

10% 6% 6%
2%
0%

Mean: 1.718 | Confidence Interval @ 95%: [1.593 - 1.843] | Standard Deviation: 1.092 | Standard Error: 0.064.

Figure 4. 6: Perception of whether climate change will worsen the impact of climate change on Durban's
current challenges. Source: Author.

In Durban, there is an acknowledgement that climate change and weather extremes are
a threat to tourism and recreational activities. Evidence from this study indicates that 77%
of tourists to Durban had their activities disrupted by bad weather. A similar percentage
of tourists indicated that variability and climate change influence travel patterns,
behaviour, and expenditure, in Durban. There is, therefore, an urgent need to address
the impacts of such extreme weather events if disruption to tourism is to be limited.

4.3 Tourism Contribution to Climate Change

The link between SLR is undeniable, and tourists are conscious of tourism's role in
contributing to climate change. A significant number of tourists acknowledged that tourism
was one of the leading contributors to climate change. Figure 4.7 below shows how the
tourists responded to the statement that pollution from tourism is a leading cause of
climate change. The fact that tourists acknowledged the role of tourism in climate change
is crucial as it can be a turning point towards addressing climate change within the tourism
sector. Tourism establishments can therefore leverage such understanding to better
involve tourists in fostering climate change action.

47
 Agree Neutral Strongly agree Disagree Strongly disagree

60%
54%

50%

40%

30%

20% 15% 14% 13%

10%
4%

0%
1

Mean: 1.980 | Confidence Interval @ 95%: [1.838 - 2.121] | Standard Deviation: 1.243 | Standard Error: 0.072

Figure 4. 7: Tourism contribution to climate change. Source: Author.

4.4 Perceived Hydro-Meteorological Challenges to Durban Coastal Region.

The tourist respondents further indicated that Durban is vulnerable to extremely high
temperatures. Extremely high temperatures can have widespread impacts on human and
natural systems, thus severely challenging the resilience of local areas and communities.

Also highlighted was Durban’s vulnerability to severe rainfall storms and excessive
flooding. This response might refer to the 2019 floods that contributed to the collapse of
some churches and houses near Empangeni and a tragic accident that claimed 13 people
(The Provincial Government of KZN 2019:2). According to Hallegatte, Green, Nicholls,
and Corfee-Morlot (2013:802) coastal cities like Durban are witnessing an increase in the
frequency, intensity and impact of coastal flooding.

The study also found that the city is slightly vulnerable to other extreme events, such as
low temperatures and lightning, but not severe drought. The increasing incidence of
extreme weather events is worrying as it presents complex challenges for coastal
communities’ socio-economic development (Dube, Nhamo & Chikodzi 2021:8). This is
likely to threaten the achievement of global inclusive Sustainable Development Goals
(SGDs) that are set to be achieved by 2030 (United Nations 2015:2).

48
 Slightly vulnerable Not vulnerable Vulnerable Not sure Extremely Vulnerable

35%
29% 29%
30% 27%

25%

20%

15%
12%
10%

5% 3%

0%

Mean: 2.958 | Confidence Interval @ 95%: [2.800 - 3.117] | Standard Deviation: 1.371 | Standard Error: 0.081

Figure 4. 8: Durban's vulnerability to flooding. Source: Author.

Hydro-meteorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events,

such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, heatwaves, or coastal erosion (Wu,
Huang, Tang, Kirschbaum & Ward 2016:1). The tourist respondents were asked to
provide three hydro-meteorological components that are problematic for them as tourists
or excursionists in Durban (Figure 4.9). About 20% of them indicated that sea level- rise
was the most problematic hydro-meteorological component. This shows that sea-level
rise is becoming a problem for Durban, followed by heatwaves.

Climatic records show that throughout the morning of the 8th of November 2020,
temperatures rose until they reached 40˚C and settled at 45˚C in mid-afternoon.
Consequently, at Pongola Nature Reserve, dead and dying birds were seen around the
reserve (Smillie 2021:1). In this regard, 18% of the Durban tourist respondents
complained that temperatures could get very high in the city, making it difficult for them
to do some tourist activities. All they want to do when there is a heatwave is to stay indoors
with air-conditioners at full blast or flock to the beaches.

The third problematic hydro-meteorological component most respondents chose was

raging sea tides. Respondents complained that high ocean currents leading to raging sea
tides threatening them on land had become a risk.

49
 rising sea level Heat waves raging sea tides Coastal Flooding
intense rainfall events severe storms General Flooding Extreme winds
tornadoes Droughts

25%

20%
20%
18%
16%
15%
12%

9%
10% 9%

6%
5%
5% 4%

1%
0%

Mean: 5.939 | Confidence Interval @ 95%: [5.770 - 6.108] | Standard Deviation: 2.734| Standard Error: 0.086

Figure 4. 9: Most problematic hydro-meteorological components for tourists. Source: Author.

4.5 Tourists’ Perceptions of Durban’s Destination’s Response to Climate change.

As much as tourism is highly vulnerable to climate change, it also contributes to the
emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), making it one of the causes of global warming.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global seven percent temporary reduction of GHG
emissions in 2020 (Friedlingstein 2020:3270). This provides tangible evidence of the
effort ahead if the Paris Agreement is to be achieved. The Paris Agreement demands a
seven percent reduction of emissions annually for the next decade (United Nations
2021:1).

In response to a follow-up question on whether visitors thought they could make a

significant difference in reducing tourism's impact on climate change, 80% said they
could. At least 15% of the respondents answered about the negative role in reducing the
impacts of climate change. The remaining five percent were unsure.

The majority of respondents (92%) strongly agreed with the statement that there was a
need for humanity to do their share to address climate change impacts. Of the 302

50
respondents, 86% believed that reducing energy usage is one of the critical steps to
avoiding catastrophic weather events. For this to happen, 90% of the tourists indicated
that government has a central role in ensuring that people protect the environment.

The tourist respondents also believed that dealing with climate change was a complex
affair full of challenges (see Figure. 4.10). One of the leading challenges noted was the
lack of climate change knowledge, inadequate research, and lack of finances. It is crucial
to note that these findings resonate with Coulter and Coiacetto (2019:57), who noted that
a lack of climate change knowledge impeded the battle against climate change. Indeed,
climate change finance is a critical challenge in developing countries, particularly for
adaptation and mitigation.

35%
Lack of knowledge
29%
30%
Lack of finance
25%
25%
21% Inadequate research to
inform decisions
20%
Lack of technical capacity

15%
Lack of regulatory frame
11% work
9%
10%
Not enough tourists pressure
4% to drive conservation efforts
5%
Other
1%
0%

Figure 4. 10: Challenges in dealing with climate change. Source: Author.

Despite the difficulties in addressing climate change, visitors saw many actions
implemented in Durban by tourism industry stakeholders to combat its effects. (see Figure
4.11). Most (24%) tourists pointed to the installation of and increased use of air
conditioners. This is a critical adaptation initiative to address one of the challenges noted
by tourists of increased heat waves and temperature in Durban. Heat waves can be
challenging and uncomfortable for tourism employees, and tourist’s health and safety

51
With the IPCC 6th Assessment Impact Report noting that temperature has increased by
about 1.3˚C pre-industrial period (IPCC 2021:10), temperature increases are an
acknowledged challenge. Tourists also reported the city's significant investment in Green
Building Technology that addresses climate change mitigation and adaptation. Green-
building hotels are resource efficient and more comfortable as they do less damage to
the environment and lower costs.

25% 24%
Installation and increased use
of air conditioning system

20%
18% Invested in Green Building
Technology

15% 14%
12% Hotels are redesigning
buildings to cater for
increases in temperature
10%
7% 7% Investment in coastal
defence system
5%
5% 4% 4%
2% 2% Increased conservation
efforts

0%

Mean : 4.572 | Confidence Interval @ 95% : [4.276 - 4.869] | Standard Deviation : 3.154 | Standard Error : 0.151

Figure 4. 11: Tourist's perception of Durban's response to extreme weather events. Source: Author

As the search for sustainable climate solutions continues, the rising burden and threat of
climate change had prompted a global audit of all sources of carbon emissions (Dube &
Nhamo 2019b:2). When tourist respondents were asked to give an account of what they
have witnessed being done by the tourism sector to reduce carbon emissions, they noted
several initiatives (see Figure 4.12). One of the initiatives was the use of solar energy.
This is not surprising given that power use is eThekwini’s largest source of GHG
emissions (eThekwini Municipality 2019:1).

To reduce emissions, the city is focusing on decarbonising its grid and encouraging the
use of renewable energy (eThekwini Municipality 2019:2). This is a practical
implementation of the Durban Climate Change Strategy (DCCS) aimed at meeting 40%
of the city's electricity consumption by 2030 (eThekwini Municipality 2019:2).

52
The respondents also noted the retrofitting of hotels to make them more energy efficient.
Doing so provides excellent opportunities to reduce energy consumption in buildings and
encourages the implementation of other sustainable measures such as environment
protection, rational resource use and occupant healthcare (Xu, Chan & Qian 2011:7389).
Techno-economic energy studies see investment in wind energy as a way of achieving a
prominent share in the power generation mix (Lunz, Stocker, Eckstein, Nebel & Samadi
2019:555).

25%

Make use of solar energy

22%

retrofitting of hotels to make them

20%
more energy efficient
Make use of wind energy

14% 14% Retrofits to reduce water usage per

15%
tourist
Investment in energy efficiency
11% technology
10% 10%
Environmental education
10% 9%

Make use energy efficient lights

6%
Make use of biogas
5%
4%
Conduct carbon audits

0%

Mean: 4.651 | Confidence Interval @ 95% : [4.495 - 4.806] | Standard Deviation : 2.369 | Standard Error : 0.080

Figure 4. 12: Climate change mitigation strategies. Source: Author

In dealing with the impacts of climate change from an adaptation perspective (Figure
4.13), tourist respondents highlighted the building of sea defence systems. These are a
key part of coastal management as they protect the land-sea boundary from erosion
and flooding. Durban has a sand rehabilitation programme and uses sandbags as one
of its defence systems. Tourists further indicated the coastal rezoning initiative, where

53
users benefit from a coastal area under a broader sustainable management strategy.
However, some tourists argued that nothing worthwhile had been initiated.

40%
37%

Building sea defence systems 35%

Coastal rezoning 30%

25%
Nothing
20%
20% 19%
I am not sure
15%
15%
relocating people and
businesses in risky areas 10% 9%
Other
5%
0%
0%

Figure 4. 13: Measures put in place to adapt to climate change. Source: Author

Rogerson and Rogerson (2020:237) warn about the decline of the coastal tourism
economy in South Africa as a consequence of the negative impacts of climate change-
related extreme weather events and general environmental degradation. When tourist
respondents were asked to outline the variability of climate change impacts in Durban,
they identified rising sea-level as an extremely vulnerable event to Durban. This is not
surprising as studies by Colenbrander and Snowman (2015:771) indicate that coastal
areas in South Africa are vulnerable to climate-induced rising sea levels, rising tides,
coastal erosion, and other related extreme weather events. Given that rising sea levels
threaten the coastal marine environment, Sustainable Development Goal 13.1 highlights
the need to strengthen resilience and enhance adaptive capacity to climate-related
hazards and natural disasters in all countries, particularly developing countries (Dube et
al.2021:10).

4.6 Chapter Summary

This chapter presented analysed data result findings, interpreted and discussed them
against the backdrop of the research questions. While they are concerned about climate
change, most tourist respondents believe they play a significant role in contributing to it.

54
According to the survey, most visitors to Durban are familiar with the city. Regardless of
the perception of climate change and yearly changes in tourism seasons, it can be
claimed that the weather in Durban is largely suitable for beach-going.

Tourist respondents identified extreme weather events such as rising sea levels,
increasing tidal activity, coastal flooding, and heat waves as imminent threats to Durban
that may impact its future as a tourist destination. Tourists are becoming increasingly
concerned about the impact of climate change on coastal tourism. A significant number
of tourists believe that climate change will limit Durban’s ability to offer quality and safe
tourism experiences because some of them have had their activities disrupted by bad
weather. Although Durban has many repeat visitors, the findings show that variability and
change influence travel patterns, behaviour, and expenditure in Durban. There is a
pressing need to address the impacts of climate change if tourism is not to be severely
disrupted.

55
Chapter 5: Extreme Weather Trends Impacting Coastal Tourism.

5.1 Introduction
This chapter presents further results of the study's investigation of extreme weather
trends impacting coastal tourism in Durban. As indicated in Chapter 3 (Methodology),
archival data, field observations, and interview data were used to respond to the second
and third research objectives, which investigated extreme weather trends that impact
coastal tourism and the impact of climate change on tourism infrastructure and Durban’s
response to its threats. Sea level rise (tides and currents) data gathered over a few
decades was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
and examined for this purpose.

5.2 Sea Level Rise and Implications for Beach Conservation in Durban.
Although there are some broken records, the study found that general trends for tidal
activity in Durban indicate that the sea level is rising along its coastline. Although tidal
activity can be distorted by external factors such as weeds growing on the tidal gauge
and seismic activities, as shown in Figure 5.1, generally, there is an upward trend in tidal
activity. Evidence indicates that Durban's sea level rise (SLR) is about 1.49mm yearly at
a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.48mm a month based on mean sea level data.

Durban is a low-lying coastal town, with most parts of the city generally between 6m and
8m of altitude above sea level. Recent tropical cyclone storms have triggered storm
surges of between 2.2m and 6m in the case of tropical cyclone Idai (Dube & Nhamo,
2021:266). Although tidal activities are attributable to coastal weather factors such as
cyclones, coastal storms, and winds that alter the size of tides that affects the coast, steep
variations on an annual basis with a generally upward trajectory undoubtedly exist along
the Durban coastline. As was observed during the field observations and interviews with
the beachgoers, an increase in SLR poses challenges for Durban's coastal infrastructure.
These include tourism establishments such as hotels and restaurants along the coastline.
Sea-level surges could quickly engulf large portions of the city and cause extensive
damage to the tourism infrastructure that dominates the coastal beach line.

56
 Monthly_MSL Linear ( Monthly_MSL)

7,3
y = 0,0001x + 6,9707
p=0001
7,2

7,1
Sea Level (meters)

6,9

6,8

6,7

6,6
1978

1998
1971
1972
1973
1974
1976
1977

1979
1981
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997

1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
Figure 5. 1: Relative Sea-Level Rise trend for Durban, South Africa. Source: Authors' data from NOOA
Tides and Currents (2020).

Evidence from field observations and interviewees indicates that SLR becomes more
pronounced in the city during coastal storms and tropical cyclones that often affect
Durban. It is even worse if the storms coincide with high moon tidal activity. Such a
combination is highly destructive and often results in coastal flooding and increases
coastal erosion. According to accounts from interviews and secondary data analysis,
Durban has been the recipient of coastal storms and cut-off low (COL) pressure systems
that have wreaked havoc in the coastal town. It emerged during the study that a
combination of coastal storms and high moon tide is always catastrophic for the coastal
area of Durban, which has flagged SLR as one of its biggest threats. Respondent XZ
indicated that:
“…high tides often trigger water wave run inland, resulting in flooding of bars and
restaurants along the Durban’s Golden Mile and erosion of the beach area.”
Several other respondents echoed similar sentiments and highlighted that the conditions
worsen during coastal storms and high tides. According to Durban Climate Action
(2018:28), the South African Navy’s tide gauge in Durban’s harbour has recorded a linear
increase of 2.7mm each year in sea level for Durban since 1970. The IPCC (2019:21)
predicts a global sea level-rise of up to one meter before the end of the twenty-first

57
century. This has also been confirmed by the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) data, which
shows that under high and very high confidence, the sea level in Durban will breach the
one-meter mark in the coming years, devastatingly impacting the city and its tourism
infrastructure (Figure 5.2). This calls on Durban’s metro to be proactive in coastal defence
investment to de-risk it from the impact of sea-level rise.

Figure 5. 2: Projected Sea-Level Rise under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for Durban. Source: Nasa (2022).

5.3 Impact of Climate Change on Tourism Infrastructure

Extreme weather occurrences make up the majority of Durban’s climate. These affect its
coastal tourism since most coastal tourism (holiday homes, hotels) is along the coastline.
When people visit Durban, they want an accommodation that is a certain distance from
the beach. However, with sea-level rise, flooding and the impacts of heavy rainfall, most
businesses are relocating inland, some distance away from the ocean. This negatively
impacts coastal tourism as visitors cannot get a perfect ocean view.

Storms are well-known for propagating coastal flooding and causing erosion of beach
resorts along the coastal line (Qi, Shen, Zeng & Jorge 2010:1358; Nguyen, De Rosa &
Kalas 2021:161). Tropical cyclones and other coastal storms instigate storm surges that
can be catastrophic as they create a wave run that often destroys infrastructure along the

58
coastline. Tropical cyclones such as Domina in January 1984, tropical cyclone Irina in
March 2012, and cyclone Eloise in January 2021 are tropical cyclones that have caused
destructive storm surges in Durban and were remembered and highlighted by this study’s
participants. For example, tropical cyclone Irina caused a storm surge of between 4m and
6m, depending on location, while Eloise resulted in a storm surge of up to 6m. Gusty
winds and storm surges compound the rising sea level and increase tidal activity with
devastating impacts on tourism infrastructure and activities along the beachfront and
seaside.

Several holiday homes are located along Durban's coastline. Consequently, according to
key informants, besides the disruption to tourist activities, stormy weather that is coupled
with SLR has led to the destruction of beachfront second homes’ infrastructure at an
increasing rate. Notable events include tropical cyclone Gamede induced storm, which
occurred in March 2007 (Figure 5.3 below). A study found that the storm resulted in sea
swelling that caused the closure of beaches, roads, and ports. The storm-caused swells,
aided by a high spring tide, produced swells of about 8.5m high (Smith, Tabrett,
Glencross, Irvin & Barclay 2007:355). This resulted in extensive damage to coastal
infrastructure in and around Durban.

59
Figure 5. 3: Map showing mean Sea-Level Rise for Durban and some tropical cyclones that have
impacted Durban. Source: Meteo France(2019).

Reports indicate that during a March 2007 event, a combination of three events, high
seas, tropical storm, and SLR, resulted in the destruction and erosion of the coast (Figure
5.4). Beaches in low-lying areas such as the Ballito, Umdloti, Umkomaas, and Scottburgh
were severely affected along the KwaZulu Natal coastline. This disrupted tourism and
other activities in the city. The storm undermined the integrity of numerous coastlines,
posing an existential threat to the community. Tourism and coastal infrastructure
destruction also financially impacts the municipality and establishment owners as they
often have to conduct repair works and institute beach nourishment programmes to
restore the beaches.

60
Figure 5. 4: Damage to beaches and second homes after a storm in 2007 at Ballito. Source: Coast KZN
(2007).

In recent times, several occurrences have been noted where cut-off lows in Durban have
resulted in flooding and the destruction of houses, roads, and homes constructed within
the high watermark. Such developments have reduced the city into a disaster zone. One
such incident is the cut-off low that occurred on the 22nd and 23rd of April 2019. It resulted
in flooding, causing more than 100 people to be displaced and 70 deaths in the city.
Several homes and other critical infrastructure were destroyed during this event, leading
to the area being declared a provincial disaster. Usually, tourists are disaster-averse
(Hajibaba, Karlsson & Dolnicar 2017:1065), and disaster declarations damage the
tourism destination's image. Such developments are costly to tourism as tourists
commonly avoid disaster zones (Rossello, Becken & Maria 2020:1).

61
Fortuitously, the 22nd to 23rd of April 2019 flooding exposed one of the challenges and
biggest threats to coastal tourism in the form of plastic pollution. According to
eyewitnesses, a considerable amount of plastic waste has washed ashore, making it
difficult for tourists to enjoy the beaches. Besides the beaches, the harbour was also
damaged and flooded with garbage. Durban Harbour is used by cruise ships. However,
a combination of damage to the harbour and the influx of pollution adversely affected
cruise ship operations on that occasion.

In January 2021, a storm accompanied by increased tidal activity led to the damage of
the Umhlanga Rocks Lighthouse (Figure 5.5), one of the most important historical sites
in the growing iconic tourism and business destination of Umhlanga Rocks. The exposure
of more rocks serves as evidence of increased coastal erosion around the lighthouse and
the Umhlanga beach itself. This is quite concerning as the area is touted for its safety and
is a popular tourist destination for many beachgoers.

Increased erosion and coastal erosion are potential threats to hotels and holiday
accommodations around the area. Given this risk to the property at the ocean's edge,
insurance coverage adequacy is needed. Overall, there is a need to have conservation
efforts aimed at restoring and rehabilitating the beach if continued tourist enjoyment is to
be assured in the short to medium term.

62
Figure 5. 5: Pictures of Umhlanga Rocks lighthouse before and after damage. Source: Fieldwork.

The Durban beachfront has several activities that are part of the coastal tourism package.
These include surfing, kayaking, canoeing, beach swimming, and seaside walks. Several
of these activities cannot be undertaken if there is a pending threat of severe weather,
particularly those associated with rough seas. Coastal storms and tropical cyclones
normally precipitate high seas, which results in tourism activity cancellations and
closures.

Ships are also often disrupted by these high seas, which seem to increase in frequency
and intensity (Ethekwini Municipality 2019:5). The study found that beaches such as
Umgababa, Isipingo, and Amanzimtoti, to mention a few, are particularly susceptible to
adverse coastal weather conditions, coastal inundation, and erosion. Respondents
indicated that high seas precipitate the closure of beaches, which results in the loss of
tourism days in the coastal city. The closure of coastal tourism activities results in revenue
losses for tour operators, bars, vendors, and tourism and amenity shops scattered around
the Durban Golden Mile beachfront.

As the beaches suffer from the adverse impact of SLR, persistent droughts are also
hampering the transportation of sand from catchment areas. During droughts, a lot of silt
load that is supposed to end up in the seas is left in rivers as there is not enough erosive
power to transport the sand load to the sea. Prolonged and severe droughts have
increased in Southern Africa over the past few years. Fears are that these droughts will

63
eventually contribute to the deterioration of the quality of beaches, including those in
Durban.

Besides drought, climate change has also triggered the construction of dams upstream,
which act as sand traps compounding the challenge faced by beaches of sand shortage.
Ezcurra, Barrios and Ezcurra (2019:4) support the view that dams have adversely
affected estuaries by compounding coastal erosion and undermining coastal estuaries.

5.4 Durban’s Response to Threats of Climate Change on Coastal Tourism.

Cognisant of the impacts of climate variability and change threats to the beaches, Durban
Municipality has implemented several measures to deal with the problem (see Figure 5.6).
Taking climate change estimates into account, the eThekwini Municipality's engineering
unit has established one-in-a-hundred-year flood lines to control the present and future
floods and flood risks. The Municipality has also adopted a soft coastal defence system
that uses sandbags lined in vulnerable areas to serve two purposes: to protect the beach
and reduce erosion. Sandbags have been strategically placed in many parts of the
beaches and along the Durban coastline, including the Durban Golden Mile. Sandbags
have been used since they do not spoil the area's aesthetics. Should the bags split, their
contents will fit well into the natural beach environment.

64
Figure 5. 6: Some measures adopted to coastal defence in eThekwini and neighbouring towns. Source:
Fieldwork.

As shown in Figure 5.6, the metropolitan city has employed sand traps to ensure the
protection of ocean sand from being eroded by the wind. These efforts seem to have
borne fruits, particularly if one looks at the areas adjacent to Moses Mabhida Stadium
near the Laguna pool. This now formed part of the dune rehabilitation project aimed at
better beaches through the protection of the low-lying regions near coastal areas from
sea surges, erosion, and possible flooding. Sand traps are also being used in other towns
in South Africa as part of dune rehabilitation. Dube et al. (2021:5) cite their usage in Cape
Town. Without coastal defence systems, several of Durban's roads, including the N2 and
pavements used by tourists and local people for jogging, would be under threat of
flooding. The use of mangroves is a proven inexpensive coastal defence natural system
that developing countries can use (Temmerman, Meire, Bouma, Herman, Ysebaert &
Huib 2013:79). In some parts of the Durban coastline, a new ecosystem comprising

65
thriving vegetation and mangroves is developing (Ethekwini Municipality 2019:5). These
provide habitat for aquatic and subaquatic species such as birds and insects, contributing
to biodiversity and creating better and thriving tourism ecosystems. In part, mangroves
have been used to defend coastal areas from the sea.

Constructing the piers is another critical development to ensure the stabilisation of central
beaches in eThekwini (Figure 5.6 top right-hand corner). Stretch (2012:56) notes that
groynes are central to stabilising the beachfront in Durban. This is because they are
designed to limit erosion and promote sediment-causing accretion. They assist in
providing a minimum beach width, reducing sand pumping costs. However, their
effectiveness under intensifying coastal erosion and increased tidal activity is yet to be
seen and researched.

Due to increased coastal erosion precipitated by rising sea levels and other geological
factors, several beaches along the Durban beachfront have witnessed increased erosion
in the recent past. Evidence from key informants indicated that the worst affected were
the Northern Beaches. Even though Durban has faced beach erosion, the erosion rate
has somewhat worsened in recent years. This increased pace of erosion has also pushed
up the demand for beach nourishment as a preservation and conservation measure. The
Durban beach nourishment programme involves pumping tonnes of sand onto the Durban
beachfront to maintain the integrity of beaches for tourism and recreation.

Under the beach nourishment programme, eThekwini Municipality and Transnet National
Ports Authority (TNPA) use a dredging system that takes sand from the south of the
Durban harbour through a sophisticated pumping system to the central and Northern
Beaches (see Figure 5.7). The Ilembe and Isandlwana vessels owned by TNPA dredge
sand trapped around the southern breakwater and move it using the undersea pipeline
system. It is estimated that about 600,000m3 of sand eroded from the Northern beaches
and other areas end up in sand traps along the South Coast, behind the South Pier. This
sand then ends up being used for beach nourishment in Durban. The programme is dually
beneficial since, on the one hand, the TNPA gets to clear sand from the harbour to allow
the ship's easy movement in and out of the harbour.

66
On the other hand, Durban gets to use the sand to maintain its continuously eroding
beaches. Unfortunately, the paradox is that when the nourishment programme is
undertaken, the beach areas must be closed to the public. This disrupts tourism and
recreational activities. For instance, in April 2018, the North Beach, Dairy Beach, Country
Club and Country Beach were closed for about a month to allow the beach restoration
project. This meant a loss of beach days and adversely affected tourists and tour
operators, who benefit from tourists being at various beaches.

Figure 5. 7: Illustration of Durban's beach replenishment project. Source: Coast KZN (2018).

According to Barnett (1999:18), the increase and rise in mean sea levels are expected to
increase demand and pressure on the municipality to enhance efforts on the beach
nourishment programme that started as early as 1935. The North Beach, Amanzimtoti,
and parts of the South Beach have been beneficiaries of the sand nourishment
programme. However, a study by Corbella and Stretch (2012:61) showed that beaches
in the southeastern parts of South Africa, including Durban, are losing sand.

67
5.5 Chapter Summary
The purpose of this chapter was to report extreme weather trends that impact coastal
tourism and Durban’s response to the threat of climate change on coastal tourism. The
study determined that climate change will result in higher temperatures and intense and
irregular rainfall in the Durban region. Already, to some extent, these are impacting the
coast. As a result of climate change impacts such as flooding and sea-level rise, coastline
erosion is anticipated to accelerate.

According to current sea-level rise observations, the levels are rising at a pace of 1.49mm
per year. The temperature rises, and with them, floods have the potential to accelerate
changes in the coastal zone. The study found that the sea level becomes even more
pronounced during high tides and when the area experiences storms which drive the
wave run. Any increase in extreme events will almost certainly cause significant damage
to coastal infrastructure, especially tourism-related assets. It was observed that many
buildings and beach facilities are too close to the high-water mark and will need to be
relocated inland or defended at a considerable cost.

The study also discovered that during coastal storms and tropical cyclones that frequently
buffet Durban, sea-level rise is prominent in the city, causing destructive storm surges.
After this, the destruction and erosion of the coast and beaches in low-lying areas have
been destroyed. On occasion, coastal storms and low-pressure cut-off systems have also
wreaked havoc on the city.

It also emerged from the research that the municipality and tourism establishment owners
regularly conduct repair works and beach nourishment programs to restore the beaches
to a usable state. EThekwini Municipality has adopted a soft coastal defence system that
uses sandbags in vulnerable areas to protect the coast and reduce erosion. It has also
employed sand traps to ensure the protection of sand.

68
Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendations

6.1 Introduction
This chapter aims to present a summary of results following the outline of the objectives
and research questions, as well as to provide recommendations for the study and
research limitations that occurred while conducting the research. The study aimed to
examine climate change impacts on coastal tourism in Durban, South Africa. To achieve
this, the research identified three research objectives, namely: (a) to examine climate
change’s impact on coastal tourism in Durban via the lens of tourism stakeholders'
experiences and perceptions, (b) To investigate extreme weather trends that have an
impact on coastal tourism in Durban and lastly (c) To assess the impact of climate change
on tourism infrastructure and Durban’s response to its threats.

6.2 Summary of findings

6.2.1 Tourism stakeholders’ experiences and perceptions of climate change on

coastal tourism in Durban.
The study showed that most tourists and excursionists in Durban are repeat beach
visitors. Most visitors are conscious of the impacts of climate variability and change on
Durban's beach tourism. From the study findings, these tourists believed they played a
significant role in climate change. Secondly, extreme weather events are important
climatic threats to Durban.

The tourist and recreationist respondents highlighted some key threats to Durban’s
tourism, including rising sea levels and coastal flooding. Most of which can cause the
erosion of beaches, destruction of beach roads, and negatively impact some tourist
activities and infrastructure. Regarding the impact of climate change on tourism, the study
thus found that the tourism market is aware of the vulnerabilities imposed by climate
change on the tourism industry.

In addition, it was found that tourists fear climate change will most likely worsen the
problems that Durban is currently facing as a city and a tourist destination. This means

69
there is a need to quicken climate change mitigation in Durban if tourism sustainability is
to be assured. To mitigate the implications of climate change on the tourism sector, a
comprehensive approach to tourism vis-à-vis climate change and adaptation research is
required. Understanding how tourists respond to change is critical if businesses and
policymakers are to formulate a responsive programme.

6.2.2 Extreme weather trends that have an impact on coastal tourism.

Scrutiny of climate data confirmed the observations by tourists and excursionists that
Durban is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR). It emerged that
the sea is rising at an annual increase of 1.49mm with the anticipation that under
continued global warming, sea level rise will likely tip the one-meter mark by 2100. Such
a development will likely worsen the rising sea level challenges facing Durban, which is
also experiencing increased coastal erosion.

The impact of Seal Level Rise is much more pronounced during high tide and when there
are coastal storms and tropical cyclones which severely affect the metropolitan.
Afterwards, phenomenal sea surges follow, causing flooding along the coast and
destroying property and other critical tourism infrastructure such as roads, bars, and
cafes, to mention a few.

6.2.3 Impact of climate change on tourism infrastructure and destination response

to the rising threats of climate change.
In response to the threat posed by SLR and increased incidents of droughts and extreme
rainfall events, the Durban municipality has instituted the following measures from a
climate change adaptation and mitigation perspective. It has invested in coastal defence
mechanisms such as using sandbags, construction of piers, mangrove rehabilitation, and
vegetation planting in some areas to retard the process of coastal erosion. In light of sea
level rise, the Durban municipality is urgently trying to activate the Integrated Coastal
Management Act 24 of 2008 and the Integrated Coastal Management Amendment Act
36 of 2014 to de-risk coastal retardation.

The threat to beaches and coastal infrastructure calls for innovation in coastal
management if coastal tourism remains sustainable. Like other coastal cities that depend

70
on tourism, the Durban Municipality has been forced to initiate nature-based solutions
and engineering solutions to conserve and preserve the beaches and ensure the
sustainability of coastal tourist development. The beach nourishment programme is one
of its biggest flagship projects and aims to protect beach integrity for tourists' enjoyment.
In support of beach tourism sustainability in Durban, other nature-based solutions like
dune rehabilitation and sand traps have also been used to aid rehabilitation projects. It is
unclear if such methods will be highly effective given the anticipated continued SLR.
Some lessons could be sought from cities in a similar coastal tourism predicament as that
of Durban.

6.3 Recommendations
• In light of the above conclusions, this study recommends the need for educational
support by civil society and the government to sensitise and improve tourism
stakeholders' understanding of the tourism sector, climate change, and adaptation.
• Heat waves and floods, directly and indirectly, impact tourist bookings and demand
patterns that further affect business operations. In the highly competitive tourist
environment that is in Africa, floods and heat waves result in missed tourism
opportunities and risks to tourists and tourist accommodation. Therefore, the study
calls for an urgent need for risk management plans.
• The study also recommends additional studies in other areas across the South
African and African coastline to measure and ascertain the extent of tourism's
vulnerability and current response measures.
• The study also recommends private partnerships to protect coastal tourism
infrastructure and a de-risked approach to the construction of tourism properties,
given the apparent threat of SLR along Africa and South Africa’s coastline. This
includes ensuring that properties along the high sea mark are well insured to
reduce costs. In some areas, property relocation might be an absolute necessity.
• There is also the need to continuously monitor and track the impact of climate
change by monitoring the effectiveness of current measures to ensure they are
keeping pace with climate change along Durban’s coastline.

71
 • Future studies could also look at Durban's climate change preparedness
concerning adaptation and mitigation.
• Given that Durban is also vulnerable to droughts, it would be good to look at this
from a tourism perspective and determine how these droughts affect flora and
fauna in the city and the possible consequence of the same on tourism operations.
• Finally, it is still unknown how events such as ocean heat waves affect marine
protected areas and other tourist activities in the city—all of the above warrant
future research.

6.4 Research Limitations

Even though this study shall contribute to tourism's body of knowledge in theory and
practice, it was not free of limitations. The researcher would have loved to interact with
more respondents, but the limitations imposed by COVID-19 and subsequent
lockdowns presented challenges. The pool of tourists comprised mostly domestic
tourists. The participation of international tourists would have brought a more
international perspective. Aside from the above, archival data on tidal activity is only
70% complete. Although this data is accepted internationally and used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a more complete data set would have
been preferred.

6.4 Research Limitations

Even though this study shall contribute to tourism's body of knowledge in theory and
practice, it was not free of limitations. The researcher would have loved to interact with
more respondents, but the limitations imposed by COVID-19 and subsequent lockdowns
presented challenges. The pool of tourists comprised mostly domestic tourists. The
participation of international tourists would have brought a more international perspective.
Aside from the above, archival data on tidal activity is only 70% complete. Although this
data is accepted internationally and used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, a more complete data set would have been preferred.

72
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