YuriNoemiSadoyama ENVENG795B

Analysis of the effect of climate change on hyetographs of ten cities in New Zealand using the
Chicago Method
Yuri Noemi Sadoyama
A research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering
Studies in Environmental Engineering, the University of Auckland, 2021. This document is for examination
purposes only and is confidential to the examination process.
Master of Engineering Studies

Environmental Engineering
University of Auckland
28 June 2021
ABSTRACT
The increasing global trend of climate change has considerably increased the occurrences of extreme
hydrological events (Sraj et al., 2016), fostering a significant amount of research to analyse weather-
related disaster tendencies over the past decades. Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will
only continue to increase the frequency and severity of natural disaster events. Understanding which
parameters are associated with the change in storm events throughout the last decades is crucial in having
a deeper understanding on how to properly manage the risk related to these events. Models that simulate
urban rainfall are used to determine the design parameters of engineering projects, such as drainage
pipelines. Most of the hydrological and hydraulic models utilise rainfall as the input, where its accuracy
directly affects the model output and its ability to simulate real events (Wang et a., 2018). In a study
about synthetic storm patterns for drainage design, Keifer and Chu (1957) proposed the Chicago Method,
which is based on which time interval of the duration the peak occurs, using the IDF curve and a rainstorm
intensity equation. The objective of this study is to investigate the underlying conditions of storm events,
especially considering climate change-related hazards, by analysing the intensity, duration and frequency
(IDF) curves developed by historical data (provided by NIWA) of cities located in different climate zones
in New Zealand, Aotearoa; and to analyse the consequences of these new characteristics to stormwater
urban design, using the Chicago method. The analysis presented in this study can assist institutions that
are responsible for sustainable stormwater urban design, providing quantitative and qualitative
information regarding the shape and other characteristics on intensity, frequency and duration of storm
events, thus, allowing for the development of more assertive tools to ensure that stormwater is well
managed by increasing stormwater quality, decreasing flooding incidents and other disaster risks. In
conclusion, the study showed that climate change affected the shape of the storm events in the locations
selected by: (1) increasing the intensity, as the radiative forcing by greenhouse gases increases, and (2)
producing higher peaks in the Chicago Model curves.
Keywords: climate change, IDF, rainfall, Chicago Method.
II
DEDICATION
Throughout my journey, I have learned that no one is capable of achieving anything exclusively
on their own strength and merit. There are numerous factors involved in one’s accomplishment, but the
most relevant one in my life has been the support I have received from people that surround me. For that,
I would like to acknowledge and thank the ones that have believed and supported me throughout my
academic journey to complete this master study.
Firstly, to the one who has nurtured, cared and bestowed me with all the knowledge, but also to
be a witness and part of a bigger objective. To whom all the glory, honour and praise should be given. I
would like to thank God for giving me a purpose and the ability to fulfil all my dreams.
Secondly, I would like to express my gratitude to the person that has never disappointed me, who
has always believed in me, who has supported me with kind words of encouragement and who has
continually inspired me to be better, my husband and partner for every journey. Diogo, thank you for
sharing life with me. Because you are by my side, I have experienced so much joy and have found true
love and happiness. You are my safe spot, my best friend, and the only one I want to accomplish every
plan we have made together.
Thirdly, I would like to thank my parents, Fernando and Marise, my sisters Harumi and Ayumi,
my brother Joel, my auntie Yumi, and my other parents Mauro and Giselle, for their immense support
over the years. I can say that it has not been easy being apart for so long, having to miss their company
and warmth, but they have never stopped believing in me, and encouraging me to keep pursuing my
dreams. Especially my parents, that even today they have not stopped dreaming, and have never given
up on their faith in God. Because of that, I have the foundation I need, to be who I am.
Furthermore, I would like to thank my friends, the ones I have left behind in my home country,
and the ones I had the chance to meet in New Zealand, for cheering me up during my darkest times, and
celebrating every small victory of mine. I am lucky to have you all by my side.
I am so grateful for having so many amazing people around me. My accomplishments are not
only mine, but are shared with all of you that have always stayed by my side. In closing, I would like to
share a quote from Viktor Frankl, “Because success, like happiness, cannot be pursued, it must happen,
and it is only a collateral damage of personal dedication to a higher cause, or as a product of the total
redemption to someone else”.
III
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would first like to acknowledge the work Sree Pal Reddy Bommineni has put into this study, by
proofreading and helping me to present a report that is cohesive and effective in describing the work that
was done during my research.
Secondly, I would like to thank my husband once again for listening to my ideas and helping me
with the editing.
And finally, I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Asaad, for his
invaluable help and guidance throughout this academic journey.
IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................ II
DEDICATION ......................................................................................................................................................... III
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................................... IV
LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................................... VI
LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................. VI
LIST OF EQUATIONS ............................................................................................................................................ VI
LIST OF GRAPHS ................................................................................................................................................... VI
GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................................................................ VIII
1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 1
2. BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................................ 2
2.1. Climate change and urban flood vulnerability ................................................................................... 2
2.2. Stormwater management tools and framework in New Zealand ................................................. 4
2.3. New Zealand Climate Zones ....................................................................................................................... 6
3. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................ 9
3.1. Location Selection ......................................................................................................................................... 9
3.2. Database ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
3.3. IDF Model ...................................................................................................................................................... 10
3.4. Chicago Method .......................................................................................................................................... 11
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................................... 12
4.1. IDF Model ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
4.1.1. Climate change effects on the IDF curves ............................................................................................................................ 12
4.2. Chicago Model ............................................................................................................................................. 18
4.2.1. Historical data for different return periods ....................................................................................................................... 18
4.2.2. Climate change effects on the Chicago Method curves .................................................................................................. 20
5. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................... 23
6. Appendices ................................................................................................................................................... 24
Appendix A – IDF equation parameters and their RSS ................................................................................ 24
Appendix B - Model for Chicago Method Calculation, following Equations 5 and 6 .......................... 32
7. References .................................................................................................................................................... 37
V
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Climate zones description and grouped cities. Source: NIWA, 2004. ....................................... 7
Table 2: Geographic coordinates and population for each selected city. Source: Stats NZ, 2018, and
Google Maps, 2021.................................................................................................................................... 9
Table 3: Climate scenarios analysed in this study .................................................................................. 10
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: The relationship between observations and emissions.. ........................................................... 3

Figure 2: Potential stormwater management tools ................................................................................... 5
Figure 3: Diagram of the existent regulation for stormwater management in New Zealand ................... 6
Figure 4: Climate zones of New Zealand ................................................................................................. 7
LIST OF EQUATIONS
Equation 1 .............................................................................................................................................. 10
Equation 2 .............................................................................................................................................. 10
Equation 3 .............................................................................................................................................. 11
Equation 4 .............................................................................................................................................. 11
Equation 5 .............................................................................................................................................. 11
Equation 6 .............................................................................................................................................. 11
LIST OF GRAPHS
Graph 1: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Auckland. ................. 12
Graph 2: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Christchurch. ............ 12
Graph 3: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Dunedin. ................... 13
Graph 4: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Hamilton. ................. 13
Graph 5: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Milford Sound. ......... 13
Graph 6: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Mount Cook. ............ 13
Graph 7: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Napier. ...................... 13
Graph 8: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Nelson. ..................... 13
Graph 9: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Queenstown.............. 13
Graph 10: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a ARI of 100 years for Wellington.............. 13
Graph 11: Cumulative values, as a ratio for the intensity distributed over the duration of the storm for
Auckland. ................................................................................................................................................. 14
Christchurch............................................................................................................................................. 14
Dunedin. .................................................................................................................................................. 14
Hamilton. ................................................................................................................................................. 14
VI
Milford Sound.......................................................................................................................................... 14
Mount Cook. ............................................................................................................................................ 14
Napier. ..................................................................................................................................................... 15
Nelson. ..................................................................................................................................................... 15
Queenstown. ............................................................................................................................................ 15
Wellington. .............................................................................................................................................. 15
Graph 21: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Auckland. ............................................. 19
Graph 22: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Christchurch. ........................................ 19
Graph 23: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Dunedin. ............................................... 19
Graph 24: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Hamilton. .............................................. 19
Graph 25: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Milford Sound. ..................................... 19
Graph 26: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Mount Cook. ........................................ 19
Graph 27: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Napier. .................................................. 20
Graph 28: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Nelson. ................................................. 20
Graph 29: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Queenstown. ......................................... 20
Graph 30: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI for Wellington. ........................................... 20
Graph 31: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Auckland. ............... 21
Graph 32: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Christchurch. .......... 21
Graph 33: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Dunedin. ................. 21
Graph 34: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Hamilton. ............... 21
Graph 35: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Milford Sound. ....... 21
Graph 36: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Mount Cook. .......... 21
Graph 37: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Napier. .................... 22
Graph 38: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Nelson. ................... 22
Graph 39: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Queenstown............ 22
Graph 40: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per climate scenario for Wellington.............. 22
VII
GLOSSARY
ARI Average Recurrence Interval

HIRDS High Intensity Rainfall Design System
IDF Intensity Duration and Frequency
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
MfE Ministry for the Environment
NIWA National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
RCP Relative Concentration Pathways
SYR Synthesis Report
VIII
1. INTRODUCTION
The increasing global trend of climate change has caused considerably frequent occurrences of
extreme hydrological events (Sraj et al., 2016), fostering a significant amount of research to analyse
weather-related disaster tendencies over the past decades. In a report regarding natural disasters
presented by the United Nations, floods accounted for almost half of all weather-related disasters, and
storms are described as the most deadly amongst these types of events (United Nations, 2015). The
increase in urbanisation caused by the population growth is the cause for major disruption in urban
scenarios, associated with an increase in flood runoffs, affecting the duration, frequency and shape of
storm events.
Many authors have presented relevant discussions about the role that population growth plays in
climate change environmental outcomes, such as Lupi and Marsiglio (2021) and Panayotou (2000),
where the authors presented studies to assess the main strands and features behind the relationship
between population and environment on selected natural and environmental resources such as land use,
water use, and climate change. Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will only continue to
increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters events. Understanding which parameters are
associated with the change in storm events throughout the last decades is crucial to have a deeper
understanding on how to properly manage the risk related to these events.
Models that simulate urban rainfall are used to determine the design parameters of engineering
projects, such as, drainage pipelines. Most of the hydrological and hydraulic models utilise rainfall as the
input, where its accuracy affect directly the model output and its ability to simulate real events (Wang et
a., 2018). Bonta and Rao (1988) argued that although in earlier studies hyetographs were assumed to be
uniformly distributed through temporal and spatial scales, this assumption is no longer valid, given that
in most rainfall events the intensity varies considerably during its duration.
There is a significant amount of research into design hyetographs with varying temporal patterns.
Wang et al., (2018) stated that the analysis of temporal distribution of rainfall is a crucial input to urban
flood models, highlighting the necessity of a mathematical approach to study rainstorm’s peak. Mo
(1956) analysed rainfall events and summarized seven types of hyetographs, known as “mode
hyetographs”. In a study about synthetic storm pattern for drainage design, Keifer and Chu (1957)
proposed the Chicago Method, which is based on which time interval of the duration the peak occurs,
using the IDF curve and a rainstorm intensity equation.
Therefore, the objective of this study is twofold: (1) to investigate the underlying conditions of
storm events, especially considering climate change-related hazards, by analysing the intensity, duration
and frequency (IDF) curves developed by historical data provided by NIWA, of cities located in different
climate zones in New Zealand, Aotearoa; and (2) to analyse the consequences of these new characteristics
to stormwater urban design, using the Chicago method.
1
2. BACKGROUND
Water is an essential resource for human life, however, if not managed properly, it can be the
cause of immense distress for organizations and society by causing disruption to environmental systems,
damages to physical structures and losses to human life. There are many factors that have greatly
impacted the quantity and quality of water resources available in the environment, amongst which are
the increase in population, and how we consume the resources available in our surroundings.
The way we manage water resources has been done by observation and understanding of
hydrological cycles throughout centuries of collection and analysis of such data, however, in the past
decades, unprecedented changes in natural systems have led to unpredictable events, such as storms,
floods, landslides and other water resources-related issues, mostly in heavily urbanized areas. The main
factor pointed as the cause of most of these extreme events is climate change. Understanding the effects
of climate change, and how water resources are managed in New Zealand is crucial to the development
of effective tools for urban management of water resources.
2.1. Climate change and urban flood vulnerability
The synthesis report (SYR) prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2014) presents a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change, its impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability aspects, as well as the important tools available to mitigate the problem. In
this report, the panel confirms with 95 per cent certainty that human influence on the climate system is
what is effectuating the current global warming, with a substantial number of observed changes in the
last century which are unprecedented over millennia. This kind of disruption would have severe
consequences to the people and irreversible repercussions in all components of the climate and the
ecosystem. Over the period of 1880 to 2012, the global average surface temperature was calculated by a
linear trend showing an increase of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06]°C (IPCC, 2014). This change in the global
temperature was found to be directly linked to the globally averaged greenhouse gas concentrations, with
the large majority of the scientific community converging to the conclusion of this being a consequence
of the global anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the last decades, especially after the industrial
revolution; and is affecting the whole climate system with significant changes in the global average sea
level.
From Figure 1 one can observe a direct relationship between the global average greenhouse gas
concentrations and the global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with the globally averaged combined land
and ocean surface temperature and the globally averaged sea-level change.
2
Figure 1: The relationship between observations and emissions. Source: IPCC, 2014.
There were a number of changes observed in the many different climate systems across the world
(one well-known effect being the precipitation of ice caps), thus affecting water resources in terms of
both quantity and quality. It has been already well documented in the scientific journals that the observed
climate change effects impacting the frequency and intensity in the occurrence of weather-related events.
The SYR presented by IPCC (2014), provided insights on the detection of an increasing trend in extreme
precipitation and discharge in some catchments, implying bigger risks of flooding at a regional scale, and
similarly, other impacts observed from recent climate-related events are droughts, cyclones and
3
heatwaves. These impose a significant increase in the vulnerability of ecosystems and human systems in
particular regions.
The New Zealand Ministry for the Environment (2008), stated that regional climate change has
already occurred, with some consequences in the national territory already been observed, such as, an
increase in rainfall in southwest New Zealand and a decrease in the northwest region. Moreover, future
projections indicate an increase in floods, landslides and storm surges.
Understanding how the changes in precipitation are affecting parameters such as duration,
frequency, and depth of storm events is crucial to develop methodologies for well-designed systems and
mitigation strategies. Urbanisation has significantly changed how people and organisations use the
available land and consequentially increased flood vulnerability of many locations, putting whole
communities at great risk of suffering social, cultural and economic losses. The high rate of impermeable
surfaces in urban areas has caused an increase in the runoff velocity, i.e., decreasing the required time
for water to flow from the furthest point of the catchment to the catchment outlet.
2.2. Stormwater management tools and framework in New Zealand
The New Zealand Water Environment Research Foundation (NZWERF, 2004), highlighted the
importance of understanding the impact, both in quantity (such as floods and erosion) and quality (such
as sedimentation, litter and other types of contaminants) of stormwater on the environment, considering
that this is information is crucial to how urban, semi-urban and rural environments are managed across
the country.
The potential stormwater management tools available in New Zealand is presented in Figure 2.
4
Figure 2: Potential stormwater management tools. Source: NZWERF, 2004 (adapted from Natural Resources
Defence Council, 1998 and Auckland Urban Stormwater Project, 2004)
The design and construction of stormwater devices are covered by a combination of statutory and
policy frameworks. The main legislation on stormwater discharges from sites is the Resource
Management Act 1991 (RMA), the Local Government Act 2002 (LGA) and the Building Act 1991
(NZWERF, 2004). Regional councils and unitary authorities also have functions under the RMA to
manage stormwater devices in each district of the city. The LGA statute provides tools based on
sustainability principles to local authorities, and the purpose of these institutions incorporates promoting
social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of places and communities in the present and
future scenarios. Furthermore, the Building Act 1991, entails that all building infrastructures are not only
protected from flooding and other storm-related adverse effects, but also, the building’s design needs to
incorporate solutions that can improve the site’s vulnerability against such natural disasters.
5
Figure 3: Diagram of the existent regulation for stormwater management in New Zealand. Source: NZWERF, 2004
2.3. New Zealand Climate Zones
Because of its unique characteristics, New Zealand has a complex climate system that varies
significantly throughout the country, from warm subtropical in the extreme north to cooler temperatures
in the extreme south, as well as alpine temperate climates in the mountainous areas. The country's
geological formation has created mountain chains that are prevalent across the whole nation, providing
a physical barrier for the wind current, prevailing westerly, dividing the country into climate regions that
are dramatically different (NIWA, 2004).
In terms of rainfall, most areas of New Zealand have a range that goes between 600 and 1600
mm of rainfall, spread throughout the year, with usually a dry period during the summer. The rainfall in
the northern and central parts of New Zealand usually occurs during the winter. However, for many parts
in the southern part of New Zealand, most of the annual rainfall occurs during the summer, with winter
recording the least amount of rainfall.
The average annual temperatures across New Zealand, can significantly differ depending on the
location. For example, in the south, the average annual temperature is 10°C and 16°C in the north part
6
of the country. The winter season has the coldest temperatures usually in July, and January and February
are the warmest months (NIWA, 2004).
New Zealand is a country with relatively high sunshine hours, with most of the country having at
least 2000 hours per year, another characteristic of New Zealand is its solar radiation index (UVI), which
is often very high for most places, and sometimes extreme in mountainous areas, and in northern New
Zealand. The country is observed to receive snowfall, mainly in the mountain areas, but frosts can occur
anywhere in the country, usually forming during colder nights that present clear skies and some wind.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), developed a system of
twelve climate zones (Figure 4) with the purpose of summarizing the climate of New Zealand. Each zone
comprises a selection of locations that have been grouped into broad climate zones, and the data for each
climate zone is based on monthly averages for the period of 1971 to 2000, for locations with a minimum
of 5 years of complete data.
Figure 4: Climate zones of New Zealand. Source: NIWA, 2004.
Furthermore, a brief description of each climate zone and its selected locations can be found in
Table 1.
Table 1: Climate zones description and grouped cities. Source: NIWA, 2004.
Climate Grouped
Description
Zone locations
Northern Kaitaia, Sub-tropical climate zone, characterized by warm and humid
New Zealand Whangarei, summers and mild winters. Rainfall occurs more often in winter,
Auckland, but in autumn and summer, there is the occurrence of storms of
Tauranga tropical origin, that may bring high winds and heavy rainfall
from the east or northeast.
7
Central Hamilton, Sheltered region by high country to the south and east, with less
North Island Taupo, Rotorua wind than other parts of the country. It is characterized by warm,
dry and settled weather that is predominant during summer.
South-West New Plymouth, Exposed area to disturbed weather systems from the Tasman Sea
North Island Wanganui, is often windy but has few climate extremes. Rain occurs more
Palmerston often in winter, which is the most unsettled time of the year.
North,
Wellington
Eastern Gisborne, This region is represented by a dry and sunny climate, provided
North Island Napier, by the shelter from the high country to the west. In summer, high
Masterton temperatures are frequent, which may be accompanied by strong
dry foehn winds from the northwest. Heavy rainfall can occur
from the southeast or east.
Northern Nelson, The west part is sheltered by high country, but the south and
South Island Blenheim some areas to the east, are the sunniest regions of New Zealand.
During summer, warm, dry and settled weather is predominant.
Towards the end of winter and beginning of spring is normally,
the most unsettled time of the year.
Western Westport, The climate of this area depends greatly on its exposure to
South Island Hokitika, weather systems from the Tasman Sea in the Southern Alps.
Milford Sound Presents a very high mean annual rainfall, but also dry spell can
occur, especially in late summer and during winter. Heavy
rainfall occurs from the northwest.
Eastern Kaikoura, This zone's climate is greatly dependent on the massive Southern
South Island Christchurch, Alps to the west. The average annual rainfall is low, with long
Timaru dry spells, especially in summer. For the most part of the
summer, temperatures are moderated with a cool north-easterly
sea breeze.
Inland South Lake Tekapo, The climate of this zone is largely dependent on the Southern
Island Queenstown, Alps to the west but has also many areas that are sheltered by
Alexandra, high country to the south and east. The average rainfall is low,
Manapouri with long dry spells occurring, especially in summer.
Mount Cook Mount Cook This is a mountainous area, which is subjected to heavy
snowfalls, high winds and low temperatures. Semi-permanent
snow and ice fields can reach 1000 - 1100 metres during winter.
Anticyclones often bring settled weather in summer, but during
winter, clear and cold conditions with severe frost.
Southern Dunedin, Characterised by cool coastal breezes, with the absence of
New Zealand Invercargill shelter from the unsettled weather that moves over the ocean
from the south and southwest.
Chatam Chatham Islands The Chatham Islands are small landmasses surrounded by sea,
Islands which means extreme temperatures are rare. Rainfall is reliable
and moderate with the maximum during winter.
Scott Base Scott Base, Antarctica is the coldest, windiest and driest continent. Scott
Antarctica Base is the permanent Antarctica base of New Zealand.
8
3. METHODOLOGY
The research conducted is described in the following sections.
3.1. Location Selection
In order to provide a comprehensive analysis of how the hyetographs are affected by climate
change across the whole country, ten cities were selected in different climate zone using the classification
provided by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). For the purpose of this
study Chatam Islands and Scott Base were excluded, given that those locations are not significantly
relevant to the development of New Zealand’s urban stormwater design. The selection of cities to
represent each climate zone was based on its relevance to urban stormwater design (such as size and
population), provided by Stats NZ (2018) and can be observed in Table 2.
One site location for each city was chosen, based on the urban centre, whereas in the case of
Milford Sound and Mount Cook, its geographic centre was chosen. The coordinates for each location
were retrieved from Google Map data (2021), and can be found in Table 2.
Table 2: Geographic coordinates and population for each selected city. Source: Stats NZ, 2018, and Google Maps,
2021.
City Population Latitude Longitude
Auckland 1,571,718 -36.85 174.76
Hamilton 160,911 -37.79 175.28
Wellington 202,737 -41.28 174.78
Napier 62,241 -39.51 176.88
Nelson 50,880 -41.31 173.23
Milford Sound - -44.63 167.90
Christchurch 369,006 -43.53 172.64
Queenstown 39,153 -45.01 168.74
Mount Cook - -43.57 170.27
Dunedin 126,255 -45.84 170.52
3.2. Database
The intensity (mm/h), duration and frequency for each location were retrieved from HIRDS, an
online tool developed by NIWA that provides an estimation on the magnitude and frequency of high
intensity rainfall events at any location in New Zealand (NIWA, 2018). The system offers estimations
for different return periods, event durations and climate change scenarios based on the IPCC report.
A report containing the amount of rain (in mm) fallen during the storm event, for twelve different
durations (ranging from ten minutes to one hundred and twenty hours storm duration), was generated
using three basic steps: (1) by entering the latitude and longitude (WGS84 coordinate system) for each
9
location, (2) selecting the output format as intensity-duration-frequency, and (3) downloading a .csv
spreadsheet.
For each city, four return periods (ARI) were chosen: two, ten, fifty and one hundred years, and
the data used in this analysis contain estimations of historical data and four different climate change
scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.0) for two future time periods (2031 – 2050 and 2081
– 2100). Thus, adding thirty six (four ARI, and nine climate estimations) scenarios for each city, reaching
a total of three hundred and sixty IDF equations.
In the analysis presented in this study, the climate scenarios will be referred to as described in
Table 3.
Table 3: Climate scenarios analysed in this study

Climate Scenario Reference
Historical Data CS 1
RCP2.6 for the period 2031-2050 CS 2
3.3. IDF Model
With the dataset provided by HIRDS, it was possible to create an IDF model to simulate the
intensity for each of the twelve durations, using the equation 1:
Equation 1:
$
𝑖!"# = % " &' (1)
!
Where:
isim = intensity simulated (in/h)
td = duration (min)
a, b, c = adjustment parameters (dimensionless)
The parameters a, b, and c for the IDF curves, were calculated based on the minimal value for the
residual sum of squares, as described by equation 2. The calculation was made using a GRG Nonlinear
solving method.
Equation 2:
𝑅𝑆𝑆 = ∑(𝑖()! − 𝑖!"# )* (2)
Where:
RSS = Residual Sum of Squares (dimensionless)
isim = Intensity simulated using the IDF model (in/h)
iobs = Intensity observed, from the HIRDS dataset (in/h)
10
The performance of the algorithm proposed is verified by the RSS value via mathematical
simulations. The lowest RSS value produced the parameters a, b and c for the IDF model that best fitted
the observed data obtained from HIRDS, simulating the IDF curves for each duration.
3.4. Chicago Method
The Chicago model provides a storm pattern developed from an intensity, duration and frequency
curve. The difference about this method is the fact that it provides the chronological location of the peak
period of rainfalls with reference to the total storms period. The formula used for this method uses two
values for td, in the equation 3, with the first one occurring before the peak (tb), and the second, after the
peak (ta), as described in the equation 4. This way, the variable “r” represents the portion of any duration
occurring before the peak, expressed as a ratio of the entire duration.
Equation 3:
𝑡) = 𝑟 𝑡+ (3)
Equation 4:
𝑡$ = (1 − 𝑟) 𝑡+ (4)
Where:
tb = time before the peak (min)
ta = time after the peak (min)
r = measure of the peak location of the storm pattern
This way, the intensity for each duration is also divided in between two equations, before the
peak, as defined in equation 5, and after the peak, as can be observed in equation 6:
Equation 5:
! "
&'()*!), #" - ./0
𝑖!"#$%" = $ (5)
! "
', #" - ./0
Equation 6:
!% "
&2()*!), - ./3
&'#
𝑖&#1"% = $ (6)
!% "
2,&'# - ./3
The constants a, b, and c are derived from the same average IDF curve model presented. For this
study, an assumption was made that r equals 0.5, meaning the peak occurs at exactly half of the total
duration of the storm. The Chicago model was calculated for a 24 hours duration storm, with the peak
occurring after 12 hours.
11
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This study produced the results presented in the following sections.
4.1. IDF Model
The parameters a, b, c for the IDF models for each location and their combinations of return
period and climate scenario ban be observed at the end of this document, in Appendix A.
The Residual sum of squares indicates the level of variance of the simulated values and provides
an estimation of the validity of the proposed model. The RSS values generated by the model proposed in
this study produced satisfactory results. The average value is 0.0182, the minimum is 0.0003 and the
maximum value is 0.1825 for the RSS obtained from the IDF built model. The considerably low RSS
values produced by the IDF model indicates the optimal intensity values for each of combination of ARI
and climate scenario produced by the proposed IDF model analysed in this study.
4.1.1. Climate change effects on the IDF curves
The intensity values (in/h) in a logarithmic scale of base 10 per climate scenario for each location
can be observed in Graphs 1 to 10.
Auckland ARI 100y Christchurch - ARI 100y
CS 1 CS 2 CS 3 CS 4 CS 5 CS 1 CS 2 CS 3 CS 4 CS 5
CS 6 CS 7 CS 8 CS 9 CS 6 CS 7 CS 8 CS 9
10.0 10.0
Intensity Log10 (in/h)
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.1 0.0
0 50 100 0 50 100
Duration (h) Duration (h)
Graph 1: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a Graph 2: Intensity (in/h) in a logarithmic scale in y, for a
ARI of 100 years for Auckland. ARI of 100 years for Christchurch.
Dunedin - ARI 100y Hamilton - ARI 100y
10.0
7.0
1.0 0.7
0.1 0.1
0 50 100 0 50 100
12
ARI of 100 years for Dunedin. ARI of 100 years for Hamilton.
Milford Sound - ARI 100y Mount Cook - ARI 100y
10.0 10.0

1.0 1.0
0.1 0.1
0 50 100 0 50 100
ARI of 100 years for Milford Sound. ARI of 100 years for Mount Cook.
Napier - ARI 100y Nelson - ARI 100y
10.0 10.0
1.0 1.0
0.1 0.1
0 50 100 0 50 100
ARI of 100 years for Napier. ARI of 100 years for Nelson.
Queenstown - ARI 100y Welligton - ARI 100y
10.0 10.0
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.0 0.1
0 50 100 0 50 100
ARI of 100 years for Queenstown. ARI of 100 years for Wellington.
13
Although the minimum and maximum values change, the shape of the IDF curves for each city
presented little variation in between climate scenarios. When analysing the accumulated values as a ratio
of the total intensity, presented in Graphs 11 to 20, it becomes even more clear to conclude that the shape
of the IDF curve remains practically unaltered for each climate scenario.
Auckland - ARI 100y Christchurch - ARI 100y
1.2 1.2
Cumulative Intensity
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
Graph 11: Cumulative values, as a ratio for the intensity Graph 12: Cumulative values, as a ratio for the intensity
distributed over the duration of the storm for Auckland. distributed over the duration of the storm for Christchurch.
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
distributed over the duration of the storm for Dunedin. distributed over the duration of the storm for Hamilton.
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
distributed over the duration of the storm for Milford distributed over the duration of the storm for Mount Cook.
Sound.
14
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
distributed over the duration of the storm for Napier. distributed over the duration of the storm for Nelson.
Queenstown - ARI 100y Wellignton - ARI 100y
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00
distributed over the duration of the storm for Queenstown. distributed over the duration of the storm for Wellington.
Therefore, it is possible to obtain a correction coefficient for the intensity values depending on
the duration of the storm, and the climate scenario. Thus, the intensity can be calculated for each climate
scenario and the duration of the storm based on historical data, as can be observed in Table 5. The return
period of 100 years was chosen, as this is the ARI usually used for stormwater urban design, but the
trends analysed are the same for other return periods.
Table 4: Correction coefficient for intensity values

RCP2.6 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP8.5
for the for the for the for the for the for the for the for the
Duration
Location period period period period period period period period
(h)
2031- 2081- 2031- 2081- 2031- 2081- 2031- 2081-
2050 2100 2050 2100 2050 2100 2050 2100
Auckland 0.17 0.074 0.074 0.096 0.163 0.089 0.214 0.111 0.347
0.33 0.078 0.078 0.099 0.167 0.094 0.221 0.116 0.352
0.50 0.079 0.079 0.100 0.167 0.095 0.222 0.117 0.351
1 0.079 0.079 0.099 0.163 0.093 0.219 0.115 0.344
2 0.077 0.077 0.096 0.156 0.089 0.210 0.110 0.330
6 0.069 0.069 0.087 0.139 0.078 0.190 0.098 0.301
12 0.063 0.063 0.080 0.127 0.069 0.175 0.088 0.280
24 0.057 0.057 0.073 0.115 0.060 0.159 0.078 0.258
15
48 0.050 0.050 0.066 0.102 0.051 0.142 0.067 0.236
72 0.046 0.046 0.062 0.094 0.045 0.133 0.061 0.223
96 0.043 0.043 0.059 0.089 0.041 0.126 0.057 0.213
120 0.040 0.041 0.056 0.085 0.038 0.121 0.053 0.206
Christchurch 0.17 0.096 0.096 0.119 0.180 0.094 0.204 0.132 0.334
0.33 0.081 0.081 0.101 0.173 0.094 0.253 0.116 0.390
0.50 0.078 0.078 0.098 0.173 0.093 0.269 0.113 0.406
1 0.082 0.082 0.101 0.182 0.089 0.275 0.117 0.408
2 0.095 0.095 0.113 0.199 0.085 0.256 0.131 0.379
6 0.130 0.130 0.147 0.238 0.076 0.190 0.166 0.293
12 0.158 0.158 0.175 0.268 0.070 0.136 0.196 0.224
24 0.191 0.191 0.207 0.301 0.064 0.078 0.229 0.151
48 0.227 0.227 0.242 0.338 0.057 0.018 0.265 0.078
72 0.249 0.249 0.264 0.360 0.054 -0.017 0.288 0.036
96 0.265 0.265 0.280 0.376 0.051 -0.041 0.304 0.006
120 0.278 0.278 0.293 0.389 0.049 -0.060 0.317 -0.016
Dunedin 0.17 0.082 0.082 0.102 0.167 0.095 0.222 0.118 0.339
0.33 0.080 0.080 0.100 0.164 0.092 0.225 0.115 0.348
0.50 0.079 0.079 0.098 0.161 0.090 0.224 0.113 0.350
1 0.077 0.077 0.095 0.157 0.088 0.222 0.110 0.348
2 0.074 0.074 0.092 0.153 0.085 0.217 0.107 0.342
6 0.071 0.071 0.088 0.147 0.081 0.206 0.102 0.326
12 0.069 0.069 0.085 0.143 0.078 0.199 0.099 0.313
24 0.066 0.066 0.083 0.139 0.075 0.190 0.096 0.299
48 0.064 0.064 0.080 0.135 0.072 0.181 0.093 0.283
72 0.063 0.063 0.078 0.132 0.071 0.176 0.091 0.274
96 0.062 0.062 0.077 0.131 0.070 0.172 0.090 0.268
120 0.061 0.061 0.076 0.129 0.069 0.169 0.089 0.262
Hamilton 0.17 0.071 0.071 0.088 0.155 0.078 0.209 0.101 0.337
0.33 0.081 0.081 0.116 0.181 0.093 0.240 0.129 0.372
0.50 0.081 0.081 0.119 0.183 0.094 0.242 0.132 0.375
1 0.074 0.074 0.107 0.168 0.088 0.226 0.120 0.354
2 0.060 0.060 0.079 0.138 0.073 0.191 0.093 0.311
6 0.030 0.030 0.017 0.072 0.040 0.116 0.032 0.221
12 0.009 0.009 -0.028 0.026 0.016 0.063 -0.012 0.157
24 -0.014 -0.014 -0.073 -0.021 -0.009 0.010 -0.056 0.094
48 -0.037 -0.037 -0.118 -0.068 -0.034 -0.043 -0.101 0.032
72 -0.050 -0.050 -0.143 -0.094 -0.049 -0.073 -0.126 -0.004
96 -0.060 -0.060 -0.161 -0.113 -0.059 -0.094 -0.144 -0.028
120 -0.067 -0.067 -0.175 -0.127 -0.068 -0.110 -0.158 -0.047
Milford 0.17 0.080 0.080 0.100 0.167 0.092 0.219 0.116 0.351
Sound 0.33 0.079 0.079 0.099 0.167 0.091 0.220 0.115 0.351
0.50 0.079 0.079 0.098 0.165 0.090 0.220 0.114 0.349
1 0.077 0.077 0.095 0.161 0.087 0.216 0.112 0.341
2 0.074 0.074 0.092 0.155 0.083 0.209 0.107 0.327
6 0.067 0.067 0.083 0.139 0.076 0.189 0.097 0.295
12 0.062 0.062 0.076 0.127 0.070 0.172 0.089 0.269
24 0.056 0.056 0.069 0.114 0.064 0.153 0.080 0.241
48 0.049 0.049 0.062 0.100 0.058 0.133 0.071 0.211
72 0.046 0.046 0.057 0.091 0.055 0.121 0.065 0.193
96 0.043 0.043 0.054 0.085 0.052 0.112 0.061 0.180
120 0.041 0.041 0.052 0.081 0.050 0.105 0.058 0.171
Mount Cook 0.17 0.074 0.074 0.096 0.157 0.089 0.212 0.109 0.344
0.33 0.080 0.080 0.103 0.164 0.095 0.223 0.116 0.353
0.50 0.081 0.081 0.104 0.165 0.096 0.225 0.117 0.353
16
1 0.080 0.080 0.102 0.161 0.094 0.221 0.115 0.345
2 0.075 0.075 0.096 0.153 0.088 0.210 0.109 0.329
6 0.063 0.063 0.080 0.134 0.073 0.183 0.093 0.292
12 0.053 0.053 0.068 0.119 0.061 0.162 0.080 0.264
24 0.042 0.042 0.054 0.102 0.048 0.140 0.066 0.234
48 0.030 0.030 0.040 0.085 0.034 0.116 0.051 0.203
72 0.023 0.023 0.031 0.074 0.026 0.102 0.042 0.185
96 0.017 0.017 0.025 0.067 0.020 0.092 0.036 0.172
120 0.013 0.013 0.020 0.061 0.016 0.084 0.031 0.162
Napier 0.17 0.080 0.080 0.104 0.168 0.095 0.223 0.119 0.358
0.33 0.079 0.079 0.101 0.164 0.093 0.219 0.116 0.350
0.50 0.078 0.078 0.100 0.162 0.092 0.217 0.114 0.345
1 0.077 0.077 0.097 0.159 0.089 0.212 0.111 0.337
2 0.076 0.076 0.095 0.156 0.087 0.208 0.108 0.328
6 0.075 0.075 0.091 0.150 0.083 0.202 0.103 0.315
12 0.074 0.074 0.088 0.147 0.080 0.198 0.101 0.307
24 0.073 0.073 0.086 0.144 0.078 0.194 0.098 0.300
48 0.072 0.072 0.083 0.141 0.076 0.190 0.095 0.292
72 0.071 0.071 0.082 0.139 0.074 0.187 0.093 0.287
96 0.071 0.071 0.081 0.137 0.073 0.186 0.092 0.284
120 0.070 0.070 0.080 0.136 0.073 0.184 0.091 0.281
Nelson 0.17 0.082 0.082 0.099 0.164 0.091 0.222 0.115 0.353
0.33 0.082 0.082 0.101 0.166 0.093 0.224 0.117 0.357
0.50 0.081 0.081 0.101 0.165 0.093 0.222 0.116 0.355
1 0.078 0.078 0.099 0.161 0.091 0.217 0.113 0.346
2 0.075 0.075 0.095 0.155 0.088 0.208 0.108 0.331
6 0.069 0.069 0.086 0.141 0.079 0.190 0.097 0.300
12 0.065 0.065 0.079 0.132 0.073 0.178 0.089 0.278
24 0.061 0.061 0.071 0.122 0.066 0.165 0.081 0.256
48 0.056 0.056 0.064 0.112 0.060 0.151 0.072 0.233
72 0.054 0.054 0.059 0.106 0.055 0.143 0.067 0.219
96 0.052 0.052 0.056 0.101 0.053 0.138 0.063 0.210
120 0.051 0.051 0.053 0.098 0.050 0.134 0.061 0.202
Queenstown 0.17 0.081 0.081 0.101 0.166 0.094 0.214 0.117 0.348
0.33 0.080 0.080 0.101 0.163 0.092 0.222 0.114 0.343
0.50 0.079 0.079 0.101 0.161 0.091 0.221 0.113 0.340
1 0.077 0.077 0.100 0.158 0.089 0.213 0.110 0.334
2 0.076 0.076 0.099 0.155 0.087 0.197 0.108 0.327
6 0.073 0.073 0.098 0.150 0.084 0.164 0.103 0.314
12 0.072 0.072 0.097 0.147 0.082 0.140 0.101 0.306
24 0.070 0.070 0.095 0.144 0.080 0.115 0.098 0.297
48 0.069 0.069 0.094 0.141 0.078 0.089 0.096 0.289
72 0.068 0.068 0.094 0.139 0.076 0.074 0.094 0.284
96 0.067 0.067 0.093 0.138 0.076 0.064 0.093 0.280
120 0.066 0.066 0.093 0.137 0.075 0.055 0.092 0.278
Wellington 0.17 0.085 0.085 0.096 0.162 0.093 0.216 0.113 0.343
0.33 0.083 0.083 0.100 0.169 0.092 0.219 0.113 0.356
0.50 0.082 0.082 0.101 0.171 0.091 0.219 0.112 0.359
1 0.080 0.080 0.101 0.170 0.090 0.217 0.112 0.358
2 0.078 0.078 0.100 0.167 0.089 0.214 0.111 0.352
6 0.074 0.074 0.095 0.158 0.087 0.206 0.110 0.334
12 0.071 0.071 0.092 0.150 0.086 0.201 0.110 0.319
24 0.069 0.069 0.088 0.142 0.085 0.195 0.109 0.304
48 0.066 0.066 0.084 0.134 0.083 0.189 0.108 0.288
72 0.065 0.065 0.081 0.129 0.082 0.185 0.108 0.278
17
96 0.064 0.064 0.079 0.125 0.082 0.182 0.108 0.271
120 0.063 0.063 0.078 0.123 0.081 0.180 0.108 0.266
As expected, some locations have presented a higher correction coefficient for climate scenarios
than others. In table 6 it is possible to observe the average correction coefficient values of all durations
for the RCP8.5 for the period 2081-2100 climate scenario (as this is the most extreme climate change
scenario).
Table 5: Average correction coefficients for each city, for the climate scenario CS 9, for a ARI of 100 years
Location Average
Wellington 0.319
Napier 0.315
Dunedin 0.313
Queenstown 0.312
Auckland 0.287
Nelson 0.287
Milford Sound 0.273
Mount Cook 0.270
Christchurch 0.224
Hamilton 0.181
From Table 6 it is possible to observe that the climate zone more prone to the effects of climate
change is the South-West North Island, based on the median value of Wellington. And the least is Central
North Island, where Hamilton is located. This means that, the intensity values for a certain storm duration
in Wellington, is on average 31.9% higher than the present historical data, for a return period of 100
years, taking into consideration the RCP8.5 for the period of 2081-2100, and for Hamilton this value is
almost 14 percentage points lower.
4.2. Chicago Model
4.2.1. Historical data for different return periods
In Graphs 21 to 30, the intensity values for a 24 hours storm duration per return period can be
observed for each location, based on the historical data.
18
Auckland - Historical Data Christchurch - Historical Data
ARI 2 ARI 10 ARI 50 ARI 100 ARI 2 ARI 10 ARI 50 ARI 100
14 12
12 10
Intensity (in/h)
Intensity (in/h)
10 8
8
6
6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (h) Time (h)
Graph 21: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI Graph 22: Intensity distributed over a 24h storm per ARI
for Auckland. for Christchurch.
Dunedin - Historical Data Hamilton - Historical Data
50 120
40 100
Intensity (in/h)
30 Intensity (in/h) 80
60
20
40
10 20
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (h) Time (h)
for Dunedin. for Hamilton.
Milford Sound - Historical Data Mount Cook - Historical Data
8 30
7 25
Intensity (in/h)
Intensity (in/h)
6
5 20
4 15
3 10
2
1 5
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (h) Time (h)
for Milford Sound. for Mount Cook.
19
Napier - Historical Data Nelson - Historical Data
100 50
80 40
Intensity (in/h)
Intensity (in/h)
60 30
40 20
20 10
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (h) Time (h)
for Napier. for Nelson.
Queenstown - Historical Data Wellington - Historical Data
50 80
70
40
Intensity (in/h)
Intensity (in/h)
60
30 50
40
20 30
20
10
10
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Time (h) Time (h)
for Queenstown. for Wellington.
The curves produced by the Chicago model appear to have the same shape, with rather constant
values of intensity from the beginning until right before the peak, when the value increases dramatically
at the peak, and return to a linear line after the peak, with the exception of Milford Sound, where the
curve presents a more smooth increase before the peak, and then a decrease after the peak. This can be
explained by the climate characteristics of the location that influences the rainfall distributed over a 24
hours period.
4.2.2. Climate change effects on the Chicago Method curves
The cumulative intensity (dimensionless) distributed over a 24h storm per climate scenario for
the return period of 100 years can be found in Graphs 31 to 40.
20
Auckland - ARI 100y Christchurch - ARI 100y
1.0 1.0
Cummulative Intensity
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
Graph 31: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per Graph 32: Cumulative intensity as a ratio of total depth per
climate scenario for Auckland. climate scenario for Christchurch.
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
climate scenario for Dunedin. climate scenario for Hamilton.
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
climate scenario for Milford Sound. climate scenario for Mount Cook.
21
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
climate scenario for Napier. climate scenario for Nelson.
Queenstown - ARI 100y Wellington - ARI 100y
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
climate scenario for Queenstown. climate scenario for Wellington.
With the cumulative values of intensity defined as a ratio of total depth, it is possible to observe
that some locations presented a more abrupt increase at the peak, producing a longer curve (that’s the
case of Napier and Wellington), and others have a more smooth curve for the intensity (Milford Sound
and Mount Cook). Also, it is possible to observe that the climate change scenarios produced curves with
a higher intensity around the peak region. Some locations have presented a higher difference in intensity
due to the climate scenario, as can be observed in Christchurch and Hamilton.
As can be observed in the cumulative curves presented, as the radiative forcing by greenhouse
gases increases, so does the intensity of storm, producing higher peaks at 12h. That is the trend that
climate change produces in the storm events analysed in this study, affecting the intensity of the storm,
around the peak.
22
5. Conclusion
Understanding the underlying conditions that affect storm events is essential in providing an
effective tool to the design and elaboration of urban stormwater guidelines and frameworks. In this study,
24 hour design storm with return periods of 2, 10, 50, and 100 years were derived for the urban area of
10 cities across different climate zones in New Zealand. The design IDF curves of different return periods
and climate scenarios were calculated based on intensity and frequency analysis using the Chicago
Method. Based on the results, it is possible to conclude that storm events of different intensities have
different temporal distributions and thus exercises different influences on urban runoff models.
The analysis presented in this study can assist institutions that are responsible for sustainable
stormwater urban design, providing quantitative and qualitative information regarding the shape and
other characteristics on intensity, frequency and duration of storm events, thus, allowing for the
development of more assertive tools to ensure that stormwater is well managed by increasing stormwater
quality and decreasing flooding incidents and other disaster risks.
In conclusion, it was possible to observe that climate change affected the shape of the storm
events in the locations selected by: (1) increasing the intensity, as the radiative forcing by greenhouse
gases increases, and (2) producing higher peaks in the Chicago Model curves.
Moreover, it is possible to conclude that climate change assuredly causes adverse effects on the
climate and environment with a tendency to escalate unless an immediate response is taken. In view of
the serious socio-economic and health consequences of flooding and other storm related disasters, it is
of extreme importance for the responsible institutions to develop a comprehensive set of guidelines and
regulations that allow for effective preventive and mitigation measures. A deep understanding on the
effects of this phenomenon to the hyetographs of New Zealand climate zones, provides significant
information to assist in the development of regulations and guidelines to enhance the country’s disaster
risk management. Furthermore, the purpose of this study was satisfied, and can provide significant
support to local government, communities, industries, iwi and communities in more sustainable
initiatives on the management of water resources across New Zealand.
23
6. Appendices
Appendix A – IDF equation parameters and their RSS
Site Description RSS Constants IDF Model

ARI (y)
Site name Climate Scenario Σ(iobs - isim)2 a b c
Auckland CS 1 2 0.00 20.34 0.69 3.17
Auckland CS 1 10 0.00 29.46 0.68 3.22
Auckland CS 1 50 0.00 38.57 0.68 3.27
Auckland CS 1 100 0.01 41.84 0.67 3.17
Auckland CS 2 2 0.00 22.66 0.70 3.39
Auckland CS 2 10 0.00 33.34 0.69 3.54
Auckland CS 2 50 0.01 42.74 0.69 3.40
Auckland CS 2 100 0.01 47.57 0.68 3.53
Auckland CS 3 2 0.00 22.66 0.70 3.39
Auckland CS 3 10 0.00 33.32 0.69 3.54
Auckland CS 3 50 0.01 42.77 0.69 3.41
Auckland CS 3 100 0.01 47.57 0.68 3.53
Auckland CS 4 2 0.00 23.07 0.70 3.39
Auckland CS 4 10 0.00 33.94 0.69 3.53
Auckland CS 4 50 0.00 44.64 0.69 3.59
Auckland CS 4 100 0.01 48.44 0.68 3.50
Auckland CS 5 2 0.00 24.77 0.70 3.51
Auckland CS 5 10 0.00 36.37 0.70 3.59
Auckland CS 5 50 0.01 48.32 0.70 3.71
Auckland CS 5 100 0.01 52.91 0.69 3.67
Auckland CS 6 2 0.00 22.92 0.70 3.40
Auckland CS 6 10 0.00 33.93 0.70 3.59
Auckland CS 6 50 0.00 44.20 0.69 3.57
Auckland CS 6 100 0.01 48.96 0.69 3.61
Auckland CS 7 2 0.00 26.71 0.71 3.72
Auckland CS 7 10 0.00 38.86 0.70 3.72
Auckland CS 7 50 0.01 51.49 0.70 3.80
Auckland CS 7 100 0.01 56.68 0.70 3.85
Auckland CS 8 2 0.00 23.54 0.70 3.45
Auckland CS 8 10 0.00 35.28 0.70 3.72
Auckland CS 8 50 0.01 45.09 0.69 3.55
Auckland CS 8 100 0.01 50.24 0.69 3.64
Auckland CS 9 2 0.00 30.06 0.72 3.88
Auckland CS 9 10 0.01 43.62 0.71 3.79
Auckland CS 9 50 0.01 59.43 0.71 4.13
Auckland CS 9 100 0.01 63.75 0.70 3.91
Christchurch CS 1 2 0.00 5.28 0.57 3.78
Christchurch CS 1 10 0.00 9.28 0.57 3.35
Christchurch CS 1 50 0.00 14.30 0.59 3.07
Christchurch CS 1 100 0.02 10.61 0.52 0.96
Christchurch CS 2 2 0.00 2.32 0.43 0.24
Christchurch CS 2 10 0.01 4.46 0.45 0.24
Christchurch CS 2 50 0.03 7.28 0.46 0.26
Christchurch CS 2 100 0.03 8.74 0.47 0.25
Christchurch CS 3 2 0.00 2.32 0.43 0.24
Christchurch CS 3 10 0.01 4.46 0.45 0.24
24
Christchurch CS 3 50 0.03 7.28 0.46 0.26
Christchurch CS 3 100 0.03 8.74 0.47 0.25
Christchurch CS 4 2 0.00 2.37 0.43 0.24
Christchurch CS 4 10 0.01 4.56 0.45 0.24
Christchurch CS 4 50 0.03 7.41 0.46 0.25
Christchurch CS 4 100 0.04 8.93 0.47 0.25
Christchurch CS 5 2 0.01 2.50 0.43 0.24
Christchurch CS 5 10 0.02 4.82 0.45 0.24
Christchurch CS 5 50 0.02 10.76 0.52 1.07
Christchurch CS 5 100 0.04 9.94 0.48 0.40
Christchurch CS 6 2 0.00 2.34 0.43 0.24
Christchurch CS 6 10 0.01 4.51 0.45 0.24
Christchurch CS 6 50 0.03 7.47 0.46 0.32
Christchurch CS 6 100 0.02 12.10 0.53 1.07
Christchurch CS 7 2 0.01 2.62 0.43 0.24
Christchurch CS 7 10 0.02 5.06 0.45 0.24
Christchurch CS 7 50 0.02 11.89 0.53 1.29
Christchurch CS 7 100 0.01 22.89 0.61 3.55
Christchurch CS 8 2 0.00 2.40 0.43 0.24
Christchurch CS 8 10 0.01 4.61 0.45 0.24
Christchurch CS 8 50 0.03 7.55 0.47 0.25
Christchurch CS 8 100 0.04 9.06 0.47 0.26
Christchurch CS 9 2 0.01 2.89 0.44 0.24
Christchurch CS 9 10 0.02 5.63 0.46 0.24
Christchurch CS 9 50 0.03 12.45 0.52 1.04
Christchurch CS 9 100 0.01 26.87 0.63 3.88
Dunedin CS 1 2 0.00 2.73 0.44 0.24
Dunedin CS 1 10 0.00 5.10 0.45 0.24
Dunedin CS 1 50 0.01 8.27 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 1 100 0.01 9.97 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 2 2 0.00 2.96 0.44 0.24
Dunedin CS 2 10 0.00 5.55 0.46 0.24
Dunedin CS 2 50 0.01 9.01 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 2 100 0.02 10.86 0.47 0.25
Dunedin CS 3 2 0.00 2.96 0.44 0.24
Dunedin CS 3 10 0.00 5.55 0.46 0.24
Dunedin CS 3 50 0.01 9.01 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 3 100 0.02 10.86 0.47 0.25
Dunedin CS 4 2 0.00 3.01 0.44 0.24
Dunedin CS 4 10 0.01 5.66 0.46 0.24
Dunedin CS 4 50 0.01 9.19 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 4 100 0.02 11.08 0.47 0.25
Dunedin CS 5 2 0.00 3.18 0.45 0.24
Dunedin CS 5 10 0.01 6.00 0.46 0.24
Dunedin CS 5 50 0.01 9.76 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 5 100 0.02 11.78 0.48 0.25
Dunedin CS 6 2 0.00 2.99 0.44 0.24
Dunedin CS 6 10 0.01 5.61 0.46 0.24
Dunedin CS 6 50 0.01 9.12 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 6 100 0.02 11.00 0.47 0.25
Dunedin CS 7 2 0.00 3.35 0.45 0.24
Dunedin CS 7 10 0.01 6.32 0.46 0.24
25
Dunedin CS 7 50 0.02 10.28 0.47 0.25
Dunedin CS 7 100 0.02 13.01 0.48 0.38
Dunedin CS 8 2 0.00 3.05 0.44 0.24
Dunedin CS 8 10 0.01 5.73 0.46 0.24
Dunedin CS 8 50 0.01 9.33 0.47 0.24
Dunedin CS 8 100 0.02 11.24 0.47 0.25
Dunedin CS 9 2 0.00 3.70 0.45 0.24
Dunedin CS 9 10 0.01 7.02 0.46 0.24
Dunedin CS 9 50 0.04 11.34 0.47 0.27
Dunedin CS 9 100 0.03 15.05 0.49 0.51
Hamilton CS 1 2 0.00 9.87 0.60 0.24
Hamilton CS 1 10 0.00 18.62 0.64 0.78
Hamilton CS 1 50 0.01 25.81 0.64 0.71
Hamilton CS 1 100 0.02 25.09 0.61 0.26
Hamilton CS 2 2 0.00 11.99 0.62 0.64
Hamilton CS 2 10 0.01 16.94 0.60 0.30
Hamilton CS 2 50 0.00 34.27 0.68 1.53
Hamilton CS 2 100 0.01 32.27 0.64 0.78
Hamilton CS 3 2 0.00 11.99 0.62 0.64
Hamilton CS 3 10 0.01 16.94 0.60 0.30
Hamilton CS 3 50 0.00 34.27 0.68 1.53
Hamilton CS 3 100 0.01 32.27 0.64 0.78
Hamilton CS 4 2 0.01 10.79 0.60 0.25
Hamilton CS 4 10 0.01 17.08 0.60 0.24
Hamilton CS 4 50 0.01 28.93 0.64 0.77
Hamilton CS 4 100 0.00 40.74 0.68 1.61
Hamilton CS 5 2 0.01 11.42 0.60 0.24
Hamilton CS 5 10 0.01 18.18 0.60 0.25
Hamilton CS 5 50 0.03 25.87 0.61 0.31
Hamilton CS 5 100 0.00 42.53 0.68 1.52
Hamilton CS 6 2 0.01 10.76 0.60 0.24
Hamilton CS 6 10 0.01 17.07 0.60 0.32
Hamilton CS 6 50 0.01 28.74 0.64 0.77
Hamilton CS 6 100 0.01 33.44 0.65 0.89
Hamilton CS 7 2 0.01 11.94 0.60 0.24
Hamilton CS 7 10 0.00 25.61 0.66 1.30
Hamilton CS 7 50 0.00 40.68 0.69 1.72
Hamilton CS 7 100 0.00 46.33 0.69 1.69
Hamilton CS 8 2 0.01 10.97 0.60 0.24
Hamilton CS 8 10 0.01 21.04 0.64 0.85
Hamilton CS 8 50 0.01 29.91 0.65 0.83
Hamilton CS 8 100 0.00 40.81 0.68 1.57
Hamilton CS 9 2 0.01 13.19 0.60 0.24
Hamilton CS 9 10 0.02 21.58 0.61 0.39
Hamilton CS 9 50 0.00 46.99 0.70 1.88
Hamilton CS 9 100 0.01 52.98 0.70 1.83
Milford Sound CS 1 2 0.09 6.71 0.32 0.99
Milford Sound CS 1 10 0.05 38.46 0.49 8.75
Milford Sound CS 1 50 0.09 46.36 0.48 7.04
Milford Sound CS 1 100 0.11 51.52 0.49 6.78
Milford Sound CS 2 2 0.02 34.29 0.51 12.15
Milford Sound CS 2 10 0.05 45.31 0.50 9.76
26
Milford Sound CS 2 50 0.10 53.75 0.50 7.72
Milford Sound CS 2 100 0.12 57.71 0.50 7.09
Milford Sound CS 3 2 0.02 34.29 0.51 12.15
Milford Sound CS 3 10 0.05 45.31 0.50 9.76
Milford Sound CS 3 50 0.10 53.75 0.50 7.72
Milford Sound CS 3 100 0.12 57.71 0.50 7.09
Milford Sound CS 4 2 0.02 33.36 0.51 11.55
Milford Sound CS 4 10 0.05 45.56 0.50 9.60
Milford Sound CS 4 50 0.10 56.75 0.50 8.11
Milford Sound CS 4 100 0.14 58.90 0.50 7.10
Milford Sound CS 5 2 0.02 38.81 0.52 13.01
Milford Sound CS 5 10 0.06 49.95 0.51 10.02
Milford Sound CS 5 50 0.10 61.14 0.51 8.23
Milford Sound CS 5 100 0.14 65.27 0.51 7.49
Milford Sound CS 6 2 0.02 34.58 0.51 12.23
Milford Sound CS 6 10 0.05 44.54 0.50 9.41
Milford Sound CS 6 50 0.11 52.82 0.49 7.41
Milford Sound CS 6 100 0.14 57.66 0.50 6.97
Milford Sound CS 7 2 0.02 44.45 0.54 14.54
Milford Sound CS 7 10 0.06 53.48 0.52 10.27
Milford Sound CS 7 50 0.12 65.35 0.51 8.43
Milford Sound CS 7 100 0.15 72.13 0.52 8.05
Milford Sound CS 8 2 0.02 32.83 0.50 11.15
Milford Sound CS 8 10 0.05 45.79 0.50 9.47
Milford Sound CS 8 50 0.10 56.87 0.50 7.94
Milford Sound CS 8 100 0.13 60.62 0.50 7.23
Milford Sound CS 9 2 0.03 45.78 0.53 13.34
Milford Sound CS 9 10 0.07 64.71 0.53 11.52
Milford Sound CS 9 50 0.14 78.00 0.53 9.27
Milford Sound CS 9 100 0.18 82.18 0.52 8.30
Mount Cook CS 1 2 0.01 6.31 0.42 0.28
Mount Cook CS 1 10 0.03 10.19 0.43 0.25
Mount Cook CS 1 50 0.03 17.82 0.47 0.67
Mount Cook CS 1 100 0.04 21.31 0.48 0.75
Mount Cook CS 2 2 0.01 6.77 0.42 0.25
Mount Cook CS 2 10 0.02 13.46 0.47 0.72
Mount Cook CS 2 50 0.03 22.43 0.50 1.11
Mount Cook CS 2 100 0.05 25.61 0.50 1.06
Mount Cook CS 3 2 0.01 6.77 0.42 0.25
Mount Cook CS 3 10 0.02 13.46 0.47 0.72
Mount Cook CS 3 50 0.03 22.43 0.50 1.11
Mount Cook CS 3 100 0.05 25.61 0.50 1.06
Mount Cook CS 4 2 0.02 6.89 0.42 0.24
Mount Cook CS 4 10 0.03 11.30 0.44 0.26
Mount Cook CS 4 50 0.03 23.64 0.50 1.23
Mount Cook CS 4 100 0.05 26.68 0.50 1.12
Mount Cook CS 5 2 0.02 7.28 0.42 0.25
Mount Cook CS 5 10 0.04 12.84 0.45 0.46
Mount Cook CS 5 50 0.04 25.74 0.51 1.31
Mount Cook CS 5 100 0.06 28.54 0.51 1.16
Mount Cook CS 6 2 0.02 6.83 0.42 0.24
Mount Cook CS 6 10 0.02 13.80 0.47 0.76
27
Mount Cook CS 6 50 0.04 19.90 0.48 0.71
Mount Cook CS 6 100 0.05 26.23 0.50 1.09
Mount Cook CS 7 2 0.02 7.65 0.43 0.25
Mount Cook CS 7 10 0.03 17.32 0.49 1.13
Mount Cook CS 7 50 0.04 27.59 0.51 1.38
Mount Cook CS 7 100 0.06 31.47 0.52 1.32
Mount Cook CS 8 2 0.02 6.98 0.42 0.25
Mount Cook CS 8 10 0.02 14.90 0.48 0.93
Mount Cook CS 8 50 0.04 23.69 0.50 1.19
Mount Cook CS 8 100 0.05 27.06 0.51 1.13
Mount Cook CS 9 2 0.01 14.11 0.51 1.80
Mount Cook CS 9 10 0.03 21.90 0.51 1.55
Mount Cook CS 9 50 0.05 32.25 0.53 1.57
Mount Cook CS 9 100 0.08 35.63 0.52 1.38
Napier CS 1 2 0.00 5.90 0.54 0.24
Napier CS 1 10 0.00 10.78 0.56 0.24
Napier CS 1 50 0.00 17.16 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 1 100 0.00 20.27 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 2 2 0.00 6.36 0.54 0.24
Napier CS 2 10 0.00 11.68 0.56 0.24
Napier CS 2 50 0.00 18.44 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 2 100 0.01 21.95 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 3 2 0.00 6.36 0.54 0.24
Napier CS 3 10 0.00 11.68 0.56 0.24
Napier CS 3 50 0.00 18.44 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 3 100 0.01 21.95 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 4 2 0.00 6.49 0.54 0.24
Napier CS 4 10 0.00 11.88 0.56 0.24
Napier CS 4 50 0.00 18.74 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 4 100 0.01 22.51 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 5 2 0.00 6.86 0.55 0.24
Napier CS 5 10 0.00 12.61 0.57 0.24
Napier CS 5 50 0.01 19.96 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 5 100 0.01 23.87 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 6 2 0.00 6.44 0.54 0.24
Napier CS 6 10 0.00 11.81 0.56 0.24
Napier CS 6 50 0.00 18.84 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 6 100 0.01 22.35 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 7 2 0.00 7.19 0.55 0.24
Napier CS 7 10 0.00 13.25 0.57 0.24
Napier CS 7 50 0.01 20.97 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 7 100 0.01 25.05 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 8 2 0.00 6.57 0.54 0.24
Napier CS 8 10 0.00 12.08 0.57 0.24
Napier CS 8 50 0.00 19.14 0.58 0.24
Napier CS 8 100 0.01 22.87 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 9 2 0.00 7.94 0.55 0.24
Napier CS 9 10 0.00 14.71 0.57 0.24
Napier CS 9 50 0.01 23.36 0.59 0.24
Napier CS 9 100 0.01 28.04 0.59 0.24
Nelson CS 1 2 0.01 7.05 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 1 10 0.02 11.23 0.53 0.24
28
Nelson CS 1 50 0.00 30.19 0.65 2.68
Nelson CS 1 100 0.00 33.47 0.65 2.51
Nelson CS 2 2 0.01 7.59 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 2 10 0.01 16.15 0.59 1.06
Nelson CS 2 50 0.00 33.01 0.66 2.70
Nelson CS 2 100 0.00 37.05 0.66 2.61
Nelson CS 3 2 0.01 7.59 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 3 10 0.01 16.15 0.59 1.06
Nelson CS 3 50 0.00 33.01 0.66 2.70
Nelson CS 3 100 0.00 37.05 0.66 2.61
Nelson CS 4 2 0.01 7.73 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 4 10 0.03 12.62 0.54 0.33
Nelson CS 4 50 0.00 34.43 0.66 2.84
Nelson CS 4 100 0.00 38.77 0.66 2.78
Nelson CS 5 2 0.02 8.14 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 5 10 0.00 25.84 0.66 2.85
Nelson CS 5 50 0.00 36.69 0.66 2.86
Nelson CS 5 100 0.01 41.43 0.66 2.82
Nelson CS 6 2 0.01 7.66 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 6 10 0.02 15.52 0.58 0.89
Nelson CS 6 50 0.00 33.98 0.66 2.81
Nelson CS 6 100 0.00 38.34 0.66 2.76
Nelson CS 7 2 0.02 8.54 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 7 10 0.04 13.88 0.54 0.31
Nelson CS 7 50 0.00 39.61 0.67 3.03
Nelson CS 7 100 0.01 44.15 0.67 2.89
Nelson CS 8 2 0.01 7.82 0.53 0.24
Nelson CS 8 10 0.03 12.55 0.54 0.26
Nelson CS 8 50 0.00 34.31 0.66 2.73
Nelson CS 8 100 0.00 39.46 0.66 2.79
Nelson CS 9 2 0.02 9.43 0.54 0.24
Nelson CS 9 10 0.00 31.97 0.67 3.25
Nelson CS 9 50 0.01 44.37 0.67 3.08
Nelson CS 9 100 0.01 51.31 0.68 3.15
Queenstown CS 1 2 0.00 2.59 0.47 0.24
Queenstown CS 1 10 0.00 4.75 0.49 0.24
Queenstown CS 1 50 0.00 7.74 0.52 0.24
Queenstown CS 1 100 0.01 9.40 0.53 0.24
Queenstown CS 2 2 0.00 2.78 0.47 0.24
Queenstown CS 2 10 0.00 5.15 0.50 0.24
Queenstown CS 2 50 0.01 8.41 0.52 0.24
Queenstown CS 2 100 0.01 10.21 0.53 0.24
Queenstown CS 3 2 0.00 2.78 0.47 0.24
Queenstown CS 3 10 0.00 5.15 0.50 0.24
Queenstown CS 3 50 0.01 8.41 0.52 0.24
Queenstown CS 3 100 0.01 10.21 0.53 0.24
Queenstown CS 4 2 0.00 2.83 0.47 0.24
Queenstown CS 4 10 0.00 5.25 0.50 0.24
Queenstown CS 4 50 0.01 8.57 0.52 0.24
Queenstown CS 4 100 0.01 10.41 0.53 0.25
Queenstown CS 5 2 0.00 3.01 0.47 0.24
Queenstown CS 5 10 0.00 5.57 0.50 0.24
29
Queenstown CS 5 50 0.01 9.96 0.53 0.49
Queenstown CS 5 100 0.01 11.05 0.53 0.24
Queenstown CS 6 2 0.00 2.82 0.47 0.24
Queenstown CS 6 10 0.00 5.21 0.50 0.24
Queenstown CS 6 50 0.01 8.51 0.52 0.24
Queenstown CS 6 100 0.01 10.34 0.53 0.24
Queenstown CS 7 2 0.00 3.15 0.48 0.24
Queenstown CS 7 10 0.00 5.86 0.50 0.24
Queenstown CS 7 50 0.01 9.56 0.52 0.25
Queenstown CS 7 100 0.01 13.76 0.56 0.69
Queenstown CS 8 2 0.00 2.88 0.47 0.24
Queenstown CS 8 10 0.00 5.32 0.50 0.24
Queenstown CS 8 50 0.01 8.70 0.52 0.24
Queenstown CS 8 100 0.01 10.57 0.53 0.24
Queenstown CS 9 2 0.00 3.49 0.48 0.24
Queenstown CS 9 10 0.01 6.50 0.50 0.24
Queenstown CS 9 50 0.01 10.66 0.53 0.24
Queenstown CS 9 100 0.02 13.10 0.54 0.29
Wellington CS 1 2 0.00 6.63 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 1 10 0.00 10.39 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 1 50 0.01 14.62 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 1 100 0.01 16.61 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 2 2 0.00 7.14 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 2 10 0.00 11.29 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 2 50 0.01 15.93 0.56 0.26
Wellington CS 2 100 0.01 18.24 0.57 0.26
Wellington CS 3 2 0.00 7.14 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 3 10 0.00 11.29 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 3 50 0.01 15.93 0.56 0.26
Wellington CS 3 100 0.01 18.24 0.57 0.26
Wellington CS 4 2 0.00 7.28 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 4 10 0.00 11.48 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 4 50 0.01 16.19 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 4 100 0.01 18.95 0.57 0.35
Wellington CS 5 2 0.00 7.67 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 5 10 0.01 12.16 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 5 50 0.01 17.16 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 5 100 0.01 20.75 0.58 0.43
Wellington CS 6 2 0.00 7.23 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 6 10 0.00 11.41 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 6 50 0.01 15.99 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 6 100 0.01 18.25 0.57 0.25
Wellington CS 7 2 0.00 8.05 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 7 10 0.01 12.76 0.56 0.25
Wellington CS 7 50 0.01 21.20 0.60 0.71
Wellington CS 7 100 0.01 21.11 0.57 0.35
Wellington CS 8 2 0.00 7.37 0.55 0.24
Wellington CS 8 10 0.00 11.65 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 8 50 0.01 16.39 0.56 0.27
Wellington CS 8 100 0.01 18.53 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 9 2 0.00 8.89 0.56 0.24
Wellington CS 9 10 0.01 17.42 0.60 0.80
30
Wellington CS 9 50 0.01 23.71 0.60 0.69
Wellington CS 9 100 0.02 25.19 0.58 0.57
31
Appendix B - Model for Chicago Method Calculation, following Equations 5 and 6
Site name: Auckland Site name: Auckland
Climate Scenario: Historical Data Climate Scenario: RCP2.6 for the period 2031-2050
Constants Chicago Model Constants Chicago Model
ARI (y) a b c r ARI (y) a b c r
2 20.34 0.69 3.17 0.50 2 22.66 0.70 3.39 0.50
10 29.46 0.68 3.22 0.50 10 33.34 0.69 3.54 0.50
50 38.57 0.68 3.27 0.50 50 42.74 0.69 3.40 0.50
100 41.84 0.67 3.17 0.50 100 47.57 0.68 3.53 0.50
ARI 2 ARI ARI 50 ARI ARI 2 ARI ARI 50 ARI

10 100 10 100
Instant t i i i (in/h) i (in/h) Instant t i i i (in/h) i (in/h)
(h) (min) (in/h) (in/h) (h) (min) (in/h) (in/h)
0.00 720 0.042 0.065 0.0907 0.1034 0.00 720 0.043 0.067 0.0943 0.1063
6 7 7 2
0.17 710 0.043 0.066 0.0916 0.1044 0.17 710 0.044 0.067 0.0952 0.1074
1 3 1 9
0.33 700 0.043 0.067 0.0925 0.1054 0.33 700 0.044 0.068 0.0962 0.1084
5 0 6 6
0.50 690 0.043 0.067 0.0934 0.1065 0.50 690 0.045 0.069 0.0972 0.1095
9 7 0 3
0.67 680 0.044 0.068 0.0943 0.1076 0.67 680 0.045 0.070 0.0982 0.1107
4 4 5 0
0.83 670 0.044 0.069 0.0953 0.1087 0.83 670 0.046 0.070 0.0992 0.1118
9 1 0 8
1.00 660 0.045 0.069 0.0963 0.1098 1.00 660 0.046 0.071 0.1003 0.1130
3 8 5 5
1.17 650 0.045 0.070 0.0973 0.1110 1.17 650 0.047 0.072 0.1013 0.1142
8 6 0 3
1.33 640 0.046 0.071 0.0984 0.1122 1.33 640 0.047 0.073 0.1024 0.1155
3 4 5 1
1.50 630 0.046 0.072 0.0995 0.1134 1.50 630 0.048 0.073 0.1036 0.1168
9 1 1 9
1.67 620 0.047 0.073 0.1006 0.1146 1.67 620 0.048 0.074 0.1048 0.1181
4 0 6 8
1.83 610 0.047 0.073 0.1017 0.1159 1.83 610 0.049 0.075 0.1060 0.1194
9 8 2 7
2.00 600 0.048 0.074 0.1029 0.1173 2.00 600 0.049 0.076 0.1072 0.1208
5 7 8 5
2.17 590 0.049 0.075 0.1041 0.1186 2.17 590 0.050 0.077 0.1085 0.1223
1 5 4 5
2.33 580 0.049 0.076 0.1054 0.1200 2.33 580 0.051 0.078 0.1098 0.1237
7 4 0 4
2.50 570 0.050 0.077 0.1067 0.1215 2.50 570 0.051 0.079 0.1111 0.1253
3 4 6 4
2.67 560 0.050 0.078 0.1080 0.1230 2.67 560 0.052 0.080 0.1125 0.1268
9 4 3 4
2.83 550 0.051 0.079 0.1093 0.1245 2.83 550 0.053 0.081 0.1140 0.1284
6 4 0 5
3.00 540 0.052 0.080 0.1108 0.1261 3.00 540 0.053 0.082 0.1155 0.1301
3 4 7 5
3.17 530 0.053 0.081 0.1122 0.1278 3.17 530 0.054 0.083 0.1170 0.1318
0 4 4 6
3.33 520 0.053 0.082 0.1137 0.1295 3.33 520 0.055 0.084 0.1186 0.1336
7 5 2 8
3.50 510 0.054 0.083 0.1153 0.1312 3.50 510 0.055 0.086 0.1202 0.1355
4 7 9 0
3.67 500 0.055 0.084 0.1169 0.1330 3.67 500 0.056 0.087 0.1219 0.1374
2 8 7 2
32
3.83 490 0.056 0.086 0.1185 0.1349 3.83 490 0.057 0.088 0.1236 0.1393
0 1 6 5
4.00 480 0.056 0.087 0.1202 0.1368 4.00 480 0.058 0.089 0.1255 0.1414
8 3 4 8
4.17 470 0.057 0.088 0.1220 0.1388 4.17 470 0.059 0.091 0.1273 0.1435
7 6 3 1
4.33 460 0.058 0.090 0.1239 0.1409 4.33 460 0.060 0.092 0.1293 0.1457
6 0 2 6
4.50 450 0.059 0.091 0.1258 0.1431 4.50 450 0.061 0.094 0.1313 0.1479
5 4 2 0
4.67 440 0.060 0.092 0.1278 0.1453 4.67 440 0.062 0.095 0.1334 0.1503
4 8 2 6
4.83 430 0.061 0.094 0.1298 0.1477 4.83 430 0.063 0.097 0.1356 0.1528
4 4 2 1
5.00 420 0.062 0.095 0.1320 0.1501 5.00 420 0.064 0.098 0.1379 0.1553
5 9 3 8
5.17 410 0.063 0.097 0.1342 0.1526 5.17 410 0.065 0.100 0.1402 0.1580
5 6 4 5
5.33 400 0.064 0.099 0.1366 0.1553 5.33 400 0.066 0.102 0.1427 0.1608
7 3 6 3
5.50 390 0.065 0.101 0.1390 0.1580 5.50 390 0.067 0.104 0.1453 0.1637
8 1 9 2
5.67 380 0.067 0.102 0.1416 0.1609 5.67 380 0.069 0.106 0.1480 0.1667
1 9 1 2
5.83 370 0.068 0.104 0.1443 0.1639 5.83 370 0.070 0.108 0.1508 0.1699
4 9 5 2
6.00 360 0.069 0.107 0.1471 0.1670 6.00 360 0.071 0.110 0.1538 0.1732
7 0 9 4
6.17 350 0.071 0.109 0.1500 0.1704 6.17 350 0.073 0.112 0.1569 0.1767
1 1 4 6
6.33 340 0.072 0.111 0.1531 0.1738 6.33 340 0.074 0.115 0.1601 0.1804
6 4 9 0
6.50 330 0.074 0.113 0.1563 0.1775 6.50 330 0.076 0.117 0.1635 0.1842
2 7 6 5
6.67 320 0.075 0.116 0.1597 0.1813 6.67 320 0.078 0.120 0.1672 0.1883
8 2 3 1
6.83 310 0.077 0.118 0.1633 0.1854 6.83 310 0.080 0.122 0.1710 0.1926
6 9 1 9
7.00 300 0.079 0.121 0.1671 0.1897 7.00 300 0.082 0.125 0.1750 0.1971
4 7 0 9
7.17 290 0.081 0.124 0.1712 0.1942 7.17 290 0.084 0.129 0.1793 0.2019
4 6 1 0
7.33 280 0.083 0.127 0.1755 0.1990 7.33 280 0.086 0.132 0.1838 0.2071
4 8 3 3
7.50 270 0.085 0.131 0.1800 0.2041 7.50 270 0.088 0.135 0.1886 0.2125
6 1 6 8
7.67 260 0.088 0.134 0.1849 0.2096 7.67 260 0.091 0.139 0.1938 0.2183
0 7 0 6
7.83 250 0.090 0.138 0.1900 0.2154 7.83 250 0.093 0.143 0.1993 0.2245
5 5 7 6
8.00 240 0.093 0.142 0.1956 0.2216 8.00 240 0.096 0.147 0.2052 0.2311
2 6 5 9
8.17 230 0.096 0.147 0.2016 0.2283 8.17 230 0.099 0.152 0.2115 0.2382
1 0 6 6
8.33 220 0.099 0.151 0.2080 0.2356 8.33 220 0.102 0.157 0.2183 0.2459
2 7 8 6
8.50 210 0.102 0.156 0.2150 0.2434 8.50 210 0.106 0.163 0.2257 0.2542
6 8 4 0
8.67 200 0.106 0.162 0.2225 0.2518 8.67 200 0.110 0.168 0.2337 0.2632
2 4 3 9
8.83 190 0.110 0.168 0.2308 0.2611 8.83 190 0.114 0.175 0.2425 0.2731
2 4 5 3
9.00 180 0.114 0.175 0.2398 0.2712 9.00 180 0.119 0.182 0.2521 0.2839
6 1 1 3
9.17 170 0.119 0.182 0.2497 0.2823 9.17 170 0.124 0.190 0.2626 0.2957
5 4 2 1
9.33 160 0.124 0.190 0.2607 0.2946 9.33 160 0.129 0.198 0.2743 0.3089
8 5 9 7
9.50 150 0.130 0.199 0.2729 0.3083 9.50 150 0.136 0.208 0.2874 0.3236
8 5 2 3
33
9.67 140 0.137 0.209 0.2867 0.3237 9.67 140 0.143 0.219 0.3020 0.3400
5 6 3 1
9.83 130 0.145 0.221 0.3022 0.3411 9.83 130 0.151 0.231 0.3186 0.3587
1 1 3 4
10.00 120 0.153 0.234 0.3200 0.3609 10.00 120 0.160 0.245 0.3376 0.3800
8 2 6 4
10.17 110 0.163 0.249 0.3405 0.3839 10.17 110 0.171 0.261 0.3595 0.4047
9 4 2 6
10.33 100 0.175 0.267 0.3646 0.4107 10.33 100 0.183 0.280 0.3852 0.4336
7 1 8 6
10.50 90 0.189 0.288 0.3931 0.4425 10.50 90 0.198 0.303 0.4158 0.4679
7 3 8 3
10.67 80 0.206 0.314 0.4278 0.4811 10.67 80 0.217 0.330 0.4529 0.5096
8 0 0 9
10.83 70 0.228 0.345 0.4708 0.5290 10.83 70 0.239 0.365 0.4991 0.5615
1 9 7 3
11.00 60 0.255 0.386 0.5260 0.5904 11.00 60 0.268 0.409 0.5584 0.6280
4 8 9 5
11.17 50 0.292 0.441 0.5997 0.6721 11.17 50 0.308 0.468 0.6377 0.7170
0 6 2 8
11.33 40 0.344 0.519 0.7039 0.7877 11.33 40 0.364 0.553 0.7501 0.8430
1 3 2 1
11.50 30 0.425 0.639 0.8648 0.9657 11.50 30 0.451 0.684 0.9240 1.0377
0 6 5 0
11.67 20 0.571 0.855 1.1525 1.2832 11.67 20 0.609 0.920 1.2358 1.3858
0 5 4 0
11.83 10 0.931 1.383 1.8508 2.0520 11.83 10 1.000 1.498 1.9956 2.2293
6 9 8 5
12.00 0 6.419 9.137 11.786 13.199 12.00 0 6.675 9.407 12.564 13.492
6 5 5 4 7 1 1 1
12.17 10 0.931 1.383 1.8508 2.0520 12.17 10 1.000 1.498 1.9956 2.2293
6 9 8 5
12.33 20 0.571 0.855 1.1525 1.2832 12.33 20 0.609 0.920 1.2358 1.3858
0 5 4 0
12.50 30 0.425 0.639 0.8648 0.9657 12.50 30 0.451 0.684 0.9240 1.0377
0 6 5 0
12.67 40 0.344 0.519 0.7039 0.7877 12.67 40 0.364 0.553 0.7501 0.8430
1 3 2 1
12.83 50 0.292 0.441 0.5997 0.6721 12.83 50 0.308 0.468 0.6377 0.7170
0 6 2 8
13.00 60 0.255 0.386 0.5260 0.5904 13.00 60 0.268 0.409 0.5584 0.6280
4 8 9 5
13.17 70 0.228 0.345 0.4708 0.5290 13.17 70 0.239 0.365 0.4991 0.5615
1 9 7 3
13.33 80 0.206 0.314 0.4278 0.4811 13.33 80 0.217 0.330 0.4529 0.5096
8 0 0 9
13.50 90 0.189 0.288 0.3931 0.4425 13.50 90 0.198 0.303 0.4158 0.4679
7 3 8 3
13.67 100 0.175 0.267 0.3646 0.4107 13.67 100 0.183 0.280 0.3852 0.4336
7 1 8 6
13.83 110 0.163 0.249 0.3405 0.3839 13.83 110 0.171 0.261 0.3595 0.4047
9 4 2 6
14.00 120 0.153 0.234 0.3200 0.3609 14.00 120 0.160 0.245 0.3376 0.3800
8 2 6 4
14.17 130 0.145 0.221 0.3022 0.3411 14.17 130 0.151 0.231 0.3186 0.3587
1 1 3 4
14.33 140 0.137 0.209 0.2867 0.3237 14.33 140 0.143 0.219 0.3020 0.3400
5 6 3 1
14.50 150 0.130 0.199 0.2729 0.3083 14.50 150 0.136 0.208 0.2874 0.3236
8 5 2 3
14.67 160 0.124 0.190 0.2607 0.2946 14.67 160 0.129 0.198 0.2743 0.3089
8 5 9 7
14.83 170 0.119 0.182 0.2497 0.2823 14.83 170 0.124 0.190 0.2626 0.2957
5 4 2 1
15.00 180 0.114 0.175 0.2398 0.2712 15.00 180 0.119 0.182 0.2521 0.2839
6 1 1 3
15.17 190 0.110 0.168 0.2308 0.2611 15.17 190 0.114 0.175 0.2425 0.2731
2 4 5 3
15.33 200 0.106 0.162 0.2225 0.2518 15.33 200 0.110 0.168 0.2337 0.2632
2 4 3 9
34
15.50 210 0.102 0.156 0.2150 0.2434 15.50 210 0.106 0.163 0.2257 0.2542
6 8 4 0
15.67 220 0.099 0.151 0.2080 0.2356 15.67 220 0.102 0.157 0.2183 0.2459
2 7 8 6
15.83 230 0.096 0.147 0.2016 0.2283 15.83 230 0.099 0.152 0.2115 0.2382
1 0 6 6
16.00 240 0.093 0.142 0.1956 0.2216 16.00 240 0.096 0.147 0.2052 0.2311
2 6 5 9
16.17 250 0.090 0.138 0.1900 0.2154 16.17 250 0.093 0.143 0.1993 0.2245
5 5 7 6
16.33 260 0.088 0.134 0.1849 0.2096 16.33 260 0.091 0.139 0.1938 0.2183
0 7 0 6
16.50 270 0.085 0.131 0.1800 0.2041 16.50 270 0.088 0.135 0.1886 0.2125
6 1 6 8
16.67 280 0.083 0.127 0.1755 0.1990 16.67 280 0.086 0.132 0.1838 0.2071
4 8 3 3
16.83 290 0.081 0.124 0.1712 0.1942 16.83 290 0.084 0.129 0.1793 0.2019
4 6 1 0
17.00 300 0.079 0.121 0.1671 0.1897 17.00 300 0.082 0.125 0.1750 0.1971
4 7 0 9
17.17 310 0.077 0.118 0.1633 0.1854 17.17 310 0.080 0.122 0.1710 0.1926
6 9 1 9
17.33 320 0.075 0.116 0.1597 0.1813 17.33 320 0.078 0.120 0.1672 0.1883
8 2 3 1
17.50 330 0.074 0.113 0.1563 0.1775 17.50 330 0.076 0.117 0.1635 0.1842
2 7 6 5
17.67 340 0.072 0.111 0.1531 0.1738 17.67 340 0.074 0.115 0.1601 0.1804
6 4 9 0
17.83 350 0.071 0.109 0.1500 0.1704 17.83 350 0.073 0.112 0.1569 0.1767
1 1 4 6
18.00 360 0.069 0.107 0.1471 0.1670 18.00 360 0.071 0.110 0.1538 0.1732
7 0 9 4
18.17 370 0.068 0.104 0.1443 0.1639 18.17 370 0.070 0.108 0.1508 0.1699
4 9 5 2
18.33 380 0.067 0.102 0.1416 0.1609 18.33 380 0.069 0.106 0.1480 0.1667
1 9 1 2
18.50 390 0.065 0.101 0.1390 0.1580 18.50 390 0.067 0.104 0.1453 0.1637
8 1 9 2
18.67 400 0.064 0.099 0.1366 0.1553 18.67 400 0.066 0.102 0.1427 0.1608
7 3 6 3
18.83 410 0.063 0.097 0.1342 0.1526 18.83 410 0.065 0.100 0.1402 0.1580
5 6 4 5
19.00 420 0.062 0.095 0.1320 0.1501 19.00 420 0.064 0.098 0.1379 0.1553
5 9 3 8
19.17 430 0.061 0.094 0.1298 0.1477 19.17 430 0.063 0.097 0.1356 0.1528
4 4 2 1
19.33 440 0.060 0.092 0.1278 0.1453 19.33 440 0.062 0.095 0.1334 0.1503
4 8 2 6
19.50 450 0.059 0.091 0.1258 0.1431 19.50 450 0.061 0.094 0.1313 0.1479
5 4 2 0
19.67 460 0.058 0.090 0.1239 0.1409 19.67 460 0.060 0.092 0.1293 0.1457
6 0 2 6
19.83 470 0.057 0.088 0.1220 0.1388 19.83 470 0.059 0.091 0.1273 0.1435
7 6 3 1
20.00 480 0.056 0.087 0.1202 0.1368 20.00 480 0.058 0.089 0.1255 0.1414
8 3 4 8
20.17 490 0.056 0.086 0.1185 0.1349 20.17 490 0.057 0.088 0.1236 0.1393
0 1 6 5
20.33 500 0.055 0.084 0.1169 0.1330 20.33 500 0.056 0.087 0.1219 0.1374
2 8 7 2
20.50 510 0.054 0.083 0.1153 0.1312 20.50 510 0.055 0.086 0.1202 0.1355
4 7 9 0
20.67 520 0.053 0.082 0.1137 0.1295 20.67 520 0.055 0.084 0.1186 0.1336
7 5 2 8
20.83 530 0.053 0.081 0.1122 0.1278 20.83 530 0.054 0.083 0.1170 0.1318
0 4 4 6
21.00 540 0.052 0.080 0.1108 0.1261 21.00 540 0.053 0.082 0.1155 0.1301
3 4 7 5
21.17 550 0.051 0.079 0.1093 0.1245 21.17 550 0.053 0.081 0.1140 0.1284
6 4 0 5
35
21.33 560 0.050 0.078 0.1080 0.1230 21.33 560 0.052 0.080 0.1125 0.1268
9 4 3 4
21.50 570 0.050 0.077 0.1067 0.1215 21.50 570 0.051 0.079 0.1111 0.1253
3 4 6 4
21.67 580 0.049 0.076 0.1054 0.1200 21.67 580 0.051 0.078 0.1098 0.1237
7 4 0 4
21.83 590 0.049 0.075 0.1041 0.1186 21.83 590 0.050 0.077 0.1085 0.1223
1 5 4 5
22.00 600 0.048 0.074 0.1029 0.1173 22.00 600 0.049 0.076 0.1072 0.1208
5 7 8 5
22.17 610 0.047 0.073 0.1017 0.1159 22.17 610 0.049 0.075 0.1060 0.1194
9 8 2 7
22.33 620 0.047 0.073 0.1006 0.1146 22.33 620 0.048 0.074 0.1048 0.1181
4 0 6 8
22.50 630 0.046 0.072 0.0995 0.1134 22.50 630 0.048 0.073 0.1036 0.1168
9 1 1 9
22.67 640 0.046 0.071 0.0984 0.1122 22.67 640 0.047 0.073 0.1024 0.1155
3 4 5 1
22.83 650 0.045 0.070 0.0973 0.1110 22.83 650 0.047 0.072 0.1013 0.1142
8 6 0 3
23.00 660 0.045 0.069 0.0963 0.1098 23.00 660 0.046 0.071 0.1003 0.1130
3 8 5 5
23.17 670 0.044 0.069 0.0953 0.1087 23.17 670 0.046 0.070 0.0992 0.1118
9 1 0 8
23.33 680 0.044 0.068 0.0943 0.1076 23.33 680 0.045 0.070 0.0982 0.1107
4 4 5 0
23.50 690 0.043 0.067 0.0934 0.1065 23.50 690 0.045 0.069 0.0972 0.1095
9 7 0 3
23.67 700 0.043 0.067 0.0925 0.1054 23.67 700 0.044 0.068 0.0962 0.1084
5 0 6 6
23.83 710 0.043 0.066 0.0916 0.1044 23.83 710 0.044 0.067 0.0952 0.1074
1 3 1 9
24.00 720 0.042 0.065 0.0907 0.1034 24.00 720 0.043 0.067 0.0943 0.1063
6 7 7 2
36
7. References
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IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
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Keifer, C., Chu, H. (1957). Synthetic storm pattern for drainage design. Journal of Hydraulics Division,
4(1332), 1-25.
Lupi, V., Marsiglio, S. (2021). Population growth and climate change: A dynamic integrated climate-
economy-demography model. Ecological Economics, 184(2021), 107011.
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Ministry for the Environment. (2008). Meeting the Challenges of Future Flooding in New Zealand
(Report No. 900). Ministry for the Environment.
https://environment.govt.nz/assets/Publications/Files/meeting-challenges-of-future-flooding-in-nz.pdf
Mo, L. (1956). The Rain Water and Confluent Channel. Architectural Engineering Press, Beijing,
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National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. (2001). Overview of New Zealand's climate.
NIWA. https://niwa.co.nz/education-and-training/schools/resources/climate/overview
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. (2018). High Intensity Rainfall Design System
(Version 4). NIWA. https://niwa.co.nz/information-services/hirds/help
New Zealand Water Environment Research Foundation. (2004). On-site stormwater management
guideline. New Zealand Water Environment Research Foundation.
https://www.waternz.org.nz/Attachment?Action=Download&Attachment_id=2967
Panayotou, T. (2020). Population and Environment. CID Working Paper Series 2000(54), 1-67.
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Stats NZ. (2018). 2018 Census place summaries. https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/2018-census-place-
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Analysis of the effect of climate change on hyetographs of ten cities in New Zealand using the

Yuri Noemi Sadoyama

Master of Engineering Studies

Keywords: climate change, IDF, rainfall, Chicago Method.

Figure 1: The relationship between observations and emissions.. ........................................................... 3

ARI Average Recurrence Interval

2.1. Climate change and urban flood vulnerability

2.2. Stormwater management tools and framework in New Zealand

2.3. New Zealand Climate Zones

Figure 4: Climate zones of New Zealand. Source: NIWA, 2004.

The research conducted is described in the following sections.

3.1. Location Selection

Table 3: Climate scenarios analysed in this study

3.3. IDF Model

3.4. Chicago Method

4.1.1. Climate change effects on the IDF curves

Auckland ARI 100y Christchurch - ARI 100y

Intensity Log10 (in/h)

Dunedin - ARI 100y Hamilton - ARI 100y

Intensity Log10 (in/h)

Milford Sound - ARI 100y Mount Cook - ARI 100y

Intensity Log10 (in/h)

Napier - ARI 100y Nelson - ARI 100y

Intensity Log10 (in/h)

Queenstown - ARI 100y Welligton - ARI 100y

Intensity Log10 (in/h)

Auckland - ARI 100y Christchurch - ARI 100y

Dunedin - ARI 100y Hamilton - ARI 100y

Queenstown - ARI 100y Wellignton - ARI 100y

Table 4: Correction coefficient for intensity values

4.2. Chicago Model

4.2.1. Historical data for different return periods

Dunedin - Historical Data Hamilton - Historical Data

Milford Sound - Historical Data Mount Cook - Historical Data

Queenstown - Historical Data Wellington - Historical Data

4.2.2. Climate change effects on the Chicago Method curves

Dunedin - ARI 100y Hamilton - ARI 100y

Milford Sound - ARI 100y Mount Cook - ARI 100y

Queenstown - ARI 100y Wellington - ARI 100y

Appendix A – IDF equation parameters and their RSS

Site Description RSS Constants IDF Model

Site name: Auckland Site name: Auckland

Constants Chicago Model Constants Chicago Model

ARI (y) a b c r ARI (y) a b c r

2 20.34 0.69 3.17 0.50 2 22.66 0.70 3.39 0.50

10 29.46 0.68 3.22 0.50 10 33.34 0.69 3.54 0.50

50 38.57 0.68 3.27 0.50 50 42.74 0.69 3.40 0.50

ARI 2 ARI ARI 50 ARI ARI 2 ARI ARI 50 ARI

Google. (2021). Google Maps. https://www.google.co.nz/maps

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