Building Cycles and the Spatial Pattern of Urban Growth

Author(s): J. W. R. Whitehand
Source: Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, No. 56 (Jul., 1972), pp. 39-55
Published by: Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of British Geographers)
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 Buildingcyclesandthespatialpattern
ofurbangrowth
J.W.R.WHITEHAND
Lecturer
inGeography,
University
ofBirmingham
MS receivedi i March I97I

in relationto the buildingcycle,certainassumptionsimplicitin Thiiniananaly-

ABSTRACT.This paperconsiders,
sis. A model of a major aspect of the processwherebyland is convertedfromruralto urbanuse, especiallyin
is derived.This modelcontributes
relationto thelocationofnewareasofhousingand institutions, to an understand-
ing of the compositionof the urbanland-usepatternand is testedin a majorBritishcity.In manyrespectsit is
foundto be consistent withthepatternof developmentin the testarea,but certaininadequaciesare highlighted.
The findings are relatedto studiesin theGermanmorphological
tradition.

THEREare numerousexamples,notablyin the Americanliterature

(forinstance,W.
Alonso,I960; R. F. Muth, I96I), oftheapplicationofvon Thiinen-type
analysesto urban
a modelofan aspectoftherural-to-urban
areas.This paperpostulates landconversion
processlargelyderivedfrom Thiinian and
analysis it
subjects to empiricaltestingin
north-westGlasgow.
THE MODEL
The commercial, industrialandresidential components in theurbanland-usepattern, all
susceptible tolocationalanalysisintermsoftheirattempts tomaximize lendthem-
profits,
selvesto interpretation in termsoftherelativeadvantage theyderivefromsubstituting
rentfortransport costsfrom thecitycentreandviceversa(W. Isard,I956; W. L. Garrison
et al., I959). Institutions,an oftenignoredbut extensive category of urbanlanduse if
broadlydefined,1 thoughnormally non-profit making, havein a largepartto justify their
locations in similarterms-that is, bybalancing thedisadvantages from
ofinaccessibility
thecitycentreagainsttheattractions ofthelowerrentsor pricespayableforinaccessible
sites.Borrowing concepts from thebodyofexisting literature,butlimiting forthemoment
theapplication oftheseconcepts to theinstitutional andresidential categoriesoflanduse
(twoofthethreemajorland-usecomponents in urbangrowth ifroadsareexcluded2), the
bid-rent curves3 shownin Figurei maybe postulated. Increasing distance(expressedhere
as physical distancebutinfactembodying costsas diverseas thoseinvolved incommuting
andlinkage tothecitysewagesystem) diminishes theutility ofsitesforthehouse-builder/
purchaser(h) morequickly thanfortheinstitution(i). This is becausethecostsofaccessi-
bilityfortheaverageinstitution aresmallrelative to thecostofthelargeareasoflandre-
quired.Bycontrast, thecostsofaccessibility fortheaveragehousehold arehigherrelative
tothecostofthecomparatively smallareasoflanditrequires. Ignoring themoment
for all
otherpossiblelocational factors,the in
result the landscape is a zone of land
residential sur-
roundedbya zoneofinstitutions. Thissituation is analogous tothatrecognized withinthe
residential category (Alonso,I960) in which working-class housing seeks to minimize
39

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40 J.W.R.WHITEHAND

transport costs(a majorelement in thefamily budget)bylocating itselfat shortdistances

fromthecitycentrewhilemiddle-class housing seeksthelargeareasoflower-value farther
fromthecentre, theextratransport costsinvolved constituting a relatively lessimportant
element in thebudgetofthemiddle-class family.
Evenunderfixedconditions ofrelative demandforhousing andinstitutions, FigureI
represents averagebid-rent curves.In detail,individual institutions and housingestates
mighthavelessdistinctive or evensimilarcurvesandconsequently overlapping distribu-
tionsin thelandscape.It shouldalsobe notedthatcertain transport coststendto showa
less-than-proportionate increaseas distance from thecentre increases andthus,rather than
thestraight linesshowninFigureI, curvesconvextotheorigin maybe morenormal. Cer-
tainly therelationship between actualrentspaidforresidential sitesanddistance appearsto
be bestdescribed bysucha curve(P. A. Stone,1964).However, itwasdecidedtoadherein
thisstudy to the attractively simple linearrelationshipsas an initialworking hypothesis.
Alterations in the relativedemandforhousing
and institutionscausechangesin thepositionofthe
- intersectionoftheirrespective bid-rent curvesand,in
^ h theory,adjustments in the width of the zones in
i
I\ the landscape.The implications of such a changein
demandfortheinternal of
re-arrangementan urban
land-usepattern willnotbe considered. Thispaperis
' \ concerned with the of such a
;
\^~ ~ entirely implications
change in demand in regard to the land-use com-
DISTANCEFROM CITY CENTRE positionof an outward-growing urbanarea.Institu-
c 2~ . tionsare likelyto be moreresilient thanall butthe
2/ )
/ - largest house-builders in the face of the general
/
t of
shortage capitalusually associated witha housing
A^/ ~ if are backed
slump,especially they by government
finance,andthesocialdemandforinstitutions willin
FIGURE I. Hypotheticalbid-rentcurvesand many casesremainundiminished. Furthermore, initial
a resulting
landscape sitedevelopment in building
costs,suchas investment
construction, tendtobelowerperunitareaoflandfor
institutionsthanforhousebuilders;or,toexpress itanother way,landcomprises a larger
proportion of theinitialcostsper unitarea of creating an institutionalusethan ofcreating
a housingestate.Thus theaverageinstitution is moresensitive tochangesinthepriceof
landanda smaller fallin landpriceswouldbe required in orderto effect a significantre-
ductionin theoverallcostsofestablishing itselfon a site.Thus thedepressed landprices
associatedwitha housing slumpprovide an opportunity forinstitutionstoacquiresitesthat
might otherwise have fallento thehouse builder.
Figure2A represents averagebid-rent curvesduringa housingboom-thegeneral
relationship betweenthetwocurvesis similar tothatin FigureI exceptthattheleft-hand
edgeof thediagrammaynowbe regarded as theedgeof thebuilt-uparea.Figure2B
postulatesthesituation during a housing slump.The housing curvehassliddowntherent
axisso that,exceptrightat theedgeofthebuilt-uparea,it is entirely belowtheinstitu-
tionalcurvewhichhassliddowntherentaxismuchless.The gradients remainas before
sinceit is assumedthat,forbothuses,transport costsremain a constant proportion of
operating costs.If,as seems there
possible, were an increase in the relativeimportance of

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 Building andurbangrowth
cycles 4I

o O
z z

O< O

z X \\ z

DISTANCE DISTANCE

FIGURE 2. betweenbid rentand distancefromthe edge of the built-uparea:

Hypotheticalrelationships
(A) duringa housingboom,(B) duringa housingslump

transportcosts duringa housingslump this would cause a steepeningof both bid-rent

curves,althoughthe curveforhousingwould be affectedto a greaterdegreeowingto the
alreadygreatertransport componentin theoperatingcostsof thehouse builder.However,
the situationshownin Figure2B, in whichthe generallevelof demandby institutions re-
sultsin theirvirtuallyeclipsinghousingas the'economic'typeofextensionto thebuilt-up
area,could occurnotwithstanding somesteepeningofthehousingcurverelativeto thatfor
institutions. The validityof this situationdepends on the assumptionthat the general
level of effective demandforinstitutional developmentremainssufficiently above thatfor
a
housingduring housingslump. In these circumstances the bid-rent curves shown in
Figure 2B are a possible outcome. Various other situations intermediate between 2A and
2B, or more extreme than eitherof them, can of course be envisaged.
Even iftheseassumptionsare correct,it cannotbe assumedthathousingboomswillbe
characterized by the relegationof all institutions to distalsitesby the house-builders.Nor
can it be assumedthat,duringa housingslump,all development willin factbe institutional.
For variousreasonsit is far more realisticto speak of the relativeprobabilitiesof new
institutions and housinglocatingthemselvesat various distancesfromthe edge of the
built-up area. Housingboomsand slumpsrepresentperiods,oftenof severalyears,during
whichthe distanceline, on eitherside of whicha different use has the abilityto bid the
highest rent, will normally move to and frorather than remain in a fixedposition,resulting
in a landscapecharacterized by the grading of one use intoanother. Furthermore, in detail,
all institutionsand house-builders willhavetheirown individualbid-rentcurvesbunching
around,but seldomidenticalwith,our hypothesizedaverages.Hence, forthe broad cate-
goryofinstitutional land use, one can onlyspeakofrelativeprobabilities ofsitings.Imper-
fectknowledgeof the marketby potentialdeveloperswill further reducethe likelihoodof
exact conformity to these hypothetical bid-rentcurves.Over and above this thereis of
coursetheeffectofnon-economicbehaviour;forexample,thesubsidizingofnon-economic
locationsfromrevenuederivedfromothersourcesand, relatedto this,government zoning
of areas for specificuses, therebyinterfering with normalrent-distance relationships.
However,the adoptionof a probability approachin situationsof thiskind(R. L. Morrill,
I965) is sufficiently familiarto requireno further elaborationhere.
Assumingthat the bid-rentcurvespostulatedin Figure 2 have some validity,it is
possibleto derivefromthemtheexpectedvariationsin theproportionof new institutional
and new housingdevelopmentwithdistancefromthe edge of the built-uparea. Figure3

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42 J.W.R.WHITEHAND

05 >0.5 p-

0.5- 0a<
p
<0o-5 \ <0-5 Ph-^

DISTANCE
(d)-- DISTANCE
(<d)-"

in therelativeproportions
variations
3. Hypothetical
FIGURE ofnewinstitutional
and newhousingdevelop-
mentwithdistancefromtheedge of thebuilt-uparea: (A) duringa housingboom,(B) duringa housing
slump

shows thesevariationsforhousing-boomand housing-slump periodsrespectively.It has

to new housingsitingsis
been drawnon theassumptionthatthe ratioof new institutional
determinedentirelyby theratiobetweentherentsor pricesthatthetwouses are prepared
Rh
R R
Ri
to offerforsites.Thus Ph = and P =
Rh,+Ri + R +Ri
wherePh is the proportionof new housingdevelopment,
Pi is the proportionof new institutional development,
R h denotesrentsbid by house-builders, and
Ri denotesrentsbid by institutions.
Giventhathousingconstruction normallyproceedsin cyclesofalternating boomsand
the
slumps, relationships in
postulated Figure3 have implications theland-
significant for
use compositionof extensionsto the urbanarea. Periodsof housingboom will be charac-
terizedbytheacquisitionofsitesadjacentto thebuilt-uparea fornewhousingconstruction.
Few institutions will be able to competefortheseproximalsitesand anynew institutional
development likelyto occupymoredistalsiteswhichare as yetofsub-marginal
is utilityto
thehouse-builder.Periodsof slumpin house-building by contrastwill be characterizedby
a contraction in thedemandby house-builders forproximalsitesand therewillbe a much
greaterprobabilityof developmentof theseby institutions whichare now in a positionto
bid higherpricesthanthe house-builders.
Let it now be assumedthattheseperiodsof boom and slump are maintainedfora
sufficient lengthoftimeforthepostulatedproportions ofhousingand institutions to be re-
flectedin considerablenumbersof actual sitings.It has to be appreciatedthatneitherin
boom norin slumpcan theedge of thebuilt-uparea be regardedas beingstatic.During a
boom,institutions locatedat somedistancefromtheedge ofthebuilt-upareaon whatwere
earlyin theboom sub-marginal sitesforthebuildermay,by theend of theboom,be sur-
roundedby new housingdevelopment.Thus, by the end of the boom period,a zone of
housinghas been added to thebuilt-uparea but scatteredbeyondit,and sometimeswithin
it will be foundthesitesof institutions4. The situationduringa housingslumpis easierto
envisage.While the house-builderis largelyinactivethe majorityof proximalsites are
developedby institutions which,added to distalinstitutionalsitescreatedduringthe pre-
viousboomperiod,forma zone whichis strongly in character.Repeateditera-
institutional
tionsof cyclesof booms and slumpswould resultin a seriesof alternating zones charac-
terizedby different proportions of and
institutions housing.

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 andurban
cycles
Building growth 43
X859-77 1878-93 11894-1908 1909-23 11924-38 11939-511 1952-68 1
"
9"-

8c I
X 82-
7
7\
e. 6- !

2-

1-

1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
YEAR
FIGURE 4. Numberof housesauthorizedby theDean of Guild Courtto be builtin Glasgow,I864-I968

TESTING THE MODEL

As is generally thecase,itis impracticable, ifnotimpossible, toidentify theactualdecision-
making process for a large
sufficiently number ofsites.The best that can be doneis tosee
whether thelocations ofactualinstitutions andhousingareasaresuchthattheymightbe
explicable, at leastin part,bythepostulates described forthemodel.
The cyclicalnatureofhousingconstruction is wellknown(J.ParryLewis,I965). In
Glasgow,the citychosenas the testarea,the patternoverthe pastcentury (Fig. 4),
generally in keepingwithnationaltrends, comprises, in broadterms,fourcyclesofap-
proximately 20-30 years'duration, each madeup of a boomand a slumpperiod.The
primequestion at thisstage is whether thelocationof newinstitutions and housingin
Glasgow in these periods conforms tothe postulated patternsin terms ofdistancefrom the
edge ofthe built-up area.It was decided to confine attention to thenorth-west quarter of
Glasgow(Fig. 5) since outward growth here was known to have been predominantly resi-
dentialand institutional. The complications afforded by otheruses,whichin thiscase
comprised only 5 percentofnewdevelopment at theurbanfringe, werethereby mini-
mized.Ideallylocational information fornewsitingswasrequiredforeachoftheknown
boomand slumpperiodsbut,owingto thevariations in thequalityand periodicity of
sourcematerial, certaincompromises had to be made,resulting in some,usuallyminor,
inhomogeneities in theperiodcharacteristics5. For example,thenearestaccuratedataon
thelocation ofnewhousing the I
during 892-I 906 boomperiodwereacquiredbycomparing
theOrdnance for
Surveymaps I894 and g909, thus overlapping, butnottoanysignificant
the
degree, beginning of the slump which was already in evidence by I9076. The most
difficultcaseofoverlapis theslumpoftheearlyi86os7andtheboomoftheearlyI87os;
boththesehavebeengroupedwithin a singleperiod(1859-77)whichthusapproximately
coversonecomplete (though shorterthanaverage)cycle.The dataperiodsgivingthebest
compromise betweenaccuracyofsourcesand conformity withactualboomsand slumps
were as follows: 1840-58, I859-77, I878-93, I894-I908, I909-23, 1924-38, I939-5I and
I952-68 (Fig. 4). Out oftheseeightperiods,datawereassembled five.The
forthefirst

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44 J.W.R.WHITEHAND

FIGURE 5. Simplified map of the test area show-ingthe main institutionalareas

compilationof data forthe last threeperiodswas deferredlargelyowingto the physical

coalescenceduringtheinter-war and post-warperiodsofnorth-westGlasgowwithseparate
settlements,notablyBearsdenand Milngaviex.Both of thesesettlements had by thistime
becomeurbancentresin theirownright,generating theirownhousingand institutions and
thusseriouslycomplicating,ifnotinvalidating,anysimpledescriptionof new development
in termsof its distancefromGlasgow.While the developmentof such large-scaleinterac-
tionis quite normalforthe post-I923 period,it was consideredthatthe conceptualand

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 andurbangrowth
cycles
Building 45
practical problems presented werebestdeferred untilthevalidity ofthemodelhad been
testedforthemoretractable earlierandmorecompactdevelopments.
The testareawasdividedintotwenty concentric zonesof0o5kmwidthcentred on a
point in the heart of the city centre at thejunction of Buchanan Streetand Argyle Street
(thispointis thesouth-east cornerofFigure5). A zonewidthof0-5kmwasselectedsince
thiswasconsidered smallenoughto ensurethattendencies towards thezoningoflanduse
on thescaleexpected werenotobscured andyetwideenoughtoprovide sufficientdataper
zone.Foreachperiodtheareaofnewinstitutional andresidential development ineachzone
wasrecorded9. Thesedatawerethenexpressed as theratioofnewinstitutional tonewresi-
dentialdevelopment, and as a percentage oftheareaavailablefordevelopment, in each
zonein eachperiod.These ratiosand percentages wereplottedon graphs(one foreach
period)againstdistance from thecitycentre usingthree-zone running meansinan attempt
to makegeneraltrendsmoreintelligible. Straight-line distancewasacceptedas a satisfac-
torymeasureofaccessibility fromthecitycentreforthreemainreasons.First,theareais
crossedbyseveralfairly closelyspacedmajorradialroadsso thatthetendency to develop
a star-shaped pattern ofactualdistances byroadis minimized; actualdistancebyroadto
thecentredoesapproximate overthegreater partoftheareato thedistance alongradials.
Secondly,althoughlocal railtravelwas alreadyemerging at theend of thenineteenth
century, therelatively compactoutwardgrowth of Glasgowitselfwas probably notsig-
nificantly affected bytheconsequent riseof'islands'ofincreased accessibilityaroundrail-
waystations untilaftertheturnofthecentury. Thirdly, theuse oftimeorcostdistance is
complicated byitsvariability overtimewhichmakesit difficult to comparetheamountof
development at thesamephysical locationduringdifferent timeperiods.
Figure 6 shows the empirically-derived variations intheproportion ofnewinstitutions
andnewhousing withdistance from theedgeofthebuilt-up areaforthefiveperiods, com-
paredwithschematic curves.The diagrams extendoutward to thepointwherenewde-
velopment is composedentirely ofinstitutions. Beyondthispoint,institutional develop-
mentcan be envisaged as continuing outward at theI'o leveluntileventually thepointis
reachedat whichthereis no urbandevelopment whatsoever. If thehypothesis is correct,
theratioofinstitutions tohousing shouldincrease ina linearfashion withdistance from the
edge of the built-up area: the point at which institutional development exceeds housing
shouldbe comparatively closeto theedgeofthebuilt-up areaduringhousingslumpsbut
moredistant duringhousingbooms.The schematic curveshavebeenfitted visually tothe
curvesoftheactualratiosandareineffect lines
regression any deviation from which maybe
as
regarded unexplained by the hypothesis; these residualsare shown to the rightofthe
schematic curves.
Beforetheempirical dataarecompared withthemodelsituation it shouldbe noted
thatthediagrams usedin theanalysis(Figs.6 to 8) tendto refer to progressively greater
distances fromthecitycentrewithtime.Thisis becausetheinnerzonesgradually become
fullydeveloped andtherefore newdevelopment herebecomesimpossible. In fact,datahave
notbeenshownforzonesin whichlessthan 5 percentofthearearemains availablefor
development atthebeginning ofa period,partly becausebelowthislevelthereappearedto
be a dangerthatpercentages weresignificantly affected bytheaccumulation ofmeasure-
menterrors. Thoughtheratiodataarenotsubjectto thisproblem, they becomeless
do
meaningful whensmallareasareinvolved and,sinceforthisreasonsomelowerlimitwould
haveto be specified, thesamecriterion wasusedfortheratiodiagrams. Thus forthepur-

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 46 J.W.R.WHITEHAND

ACTUAL SCHEMATIC RESIDUALS

10.8
08-
Co
0I
CD
Mt
0-2- -,.1

2 3 4 5 KM KM

1*0'. 1.0 I-
1--

0,
0-4- CM
0*6- 1-

0-2- "I

10-4-
2 3 4 r3K M 6 KM
0*2 -

0.8- -j
0*-4 Co

a,

0-2- 0-2-

3 4 KM 3 4 KM

ofnewhousing
Proportion development
0.*8- I/
- - -- ofnewinstitutional
Proportion development
CD
ofactualfrom
Deviation curvefor
schematic
.......institutional development
4 5 6 KM

of newhousingand newinstitutional
FIGURE6. Actualand schematicproportions duringfive
development
are therunningmeansofthree
thecitycentre.The actualproportions
timeperiodsrelatedto distancefronm
distancezones.

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 Building andurbangrowth
cycles 47
posesofallofthediagrams, ifatthebeginning ofa measurement perioda zonehaslessthan
15 per cent of its area available for development, it is assumed to be alreadywithinthe
built-upareaandthegraphstartsat thenextzoneoutward.
As faras itis possibletotellfrom theinadequate dataavailablefortheperiod,1840-58
waspredominantly a periodofhousingboom.The general shapeoftheactualratiocurves
forthisperiod(Fig.6) conforms tothehypothesized pattern, although theability ofinstitu-
tionsto developproximal sitesis greater thanexpectedwithmarkedpositiveresiduals at
approximately 2-5 km.Fortunately, in thiscase thelocational decision-making recordis
goodandhighlights a limitation inthefundamental assumption thatsitesaredeveloped for
theirmosteconomic use.A considerable partofthisproximal landdevelopedforinstitu-
tionalusewassubjecttostrong socialconstraints, havingbeenpurchased bytheCorpora-
tionofGlasgowanddeveloped as publicopenspace-a development decisionrecorded in
Corporation documents and fromwhichthebroadextentof theeconomicsacrifice for
socialneedcan be establishedt0. Otherwise institutions largely tookup distalsitesin the
faceofextensive and often over-ambitious schemes to extend the housingareawestofthe
cityboundary of the time1l. The marked rise in the ratio of housingto institutions at ap-
proximately 3-5 km from the citycentre is partly accounted for by the firstsitings these
in
residentialschemeswhichresulted in housingsalientsas faroutas 4 kmandoccasionally
beyond.Thesesalientswerethefirst arrivals in intended continuous estatesofhousesbut
whoseplannedextent so farexceededthemid-nineteenth century demand formiddle-class
housing thatsome of the initialgroups of houses remained as outliers in a discontinuously
built-up skeleton street system untileventually enveloped inthe'Edwardian' housing boom
nearly halfa century later.
The ratiocurvesfor1859-77conform closelywiththe postulated linearpattern.
Institutionaldevelopment predominates somewhat closer to the edge of the built-uparea
thanin theprevious period. Some institutional development did take place within a rela-
tivelyshort distance of the edge of the area
built-up during the initial slumpphaseofthis
composite period but this was exceeded by the considerable housingdevelopment ofthe
succeeding and somewhat longer boom phase,during which institutional development
tendedto be farther out.The aggregate resultis intermediate in character betweenthe
postulated slump and boom situations, although somewhat closer to the latter.
The 1878-93patternconforms closelyto the hypothesized slump-period pattern.
Exceptat theimmediate edgeofthebuilt-uparea,institutional development is predomi-
nant,althoughthehousingcomponent is againhigherthanexpectedat approximately
4-5 km. Indeed the housingproportion actuallyincreasesslightly at approximately this
point, a trendnot explicable in terms of the postulated bid-rent curves.
Following thisperiodofconcentration ofdevelopment activity closetotheedgeofthe
built-up the
area, 1894-1908period is one in which the developers' sightshavebeenraised
to zonesmuchfarther distant.The zone in whichhousebuildingexceedsinstitutional
development hasnowopenedup toa widthof3 kmfromtheedgeofthebuilt-up area.As
postulated thegeneralformofthesecurvesis similar tothatforthe1840-58period.
Duringthe1909-23 period,housingdevelopment is on a scaleso smallas hardlyto
merit thedrawing ofratiocurves.Empirically-derived curvesareshowninFigure6 butthe
fittingof schematic curvesis difficult to justify. Although theoverallpredominance of
institutionaldevelopment is as expected,comparison withthe patternfortheprevious
slumpperiod(I878-93) at firstsightsuggestsmajordifferences. A highproportion of

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48 J.W.R.WHITEHAND
40

30 30-

m
20 < 20
Z
1840-58
(HOUSING
BOOM)
~~~~<\ ~ 1894-1908

10 . 10'

.r_ . / - -_ -_

< 1-2t5 2
12B 3 4 5 6 7 w 2-75 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
u-
w 40-
00
uz

30 30- Z 20-
cL
1909-23
1859-77 CoD^ _s (HOUSING
SLUMP)
--
o 20 ( COMPOSITE
PERIOD) 10-
- /
//
o- -.\ \
z /

L,
10-
~__---, \ -
325 4 5 6 7 8 9

"..
FROMCITYCENTRE(KM)
DISTANCE

1-75 3 4 5 6 7
z

20-
1878 -93
(HOUSINGSLUMP)
10- \ Housing
development

--- - -Institutionaldevelopment
2-75 4 5 6 7 8
FROMCITYCENTRE(KM)
DISTANCE
FIGURE7. New housingand new institutional (as a percentageof availableland) duringfive
development
timeperiodsrelatedto distancefromthe citycentre.The percentagesare the runningmeans of three
distancezones.

institutional developmentneartheedge of the built-uparea is followedoutwardby an in-

creasedproportion ofhousingdevelopment betweenapproximately 4 and 5 km(thereverse
oftheexpectedgradient)but thereafter themorenormaltrendofan increasingproportion
of institutionaldevelopmentwithdistanceis evident.Two pointsare especiallyrelevantin
interpreting reversalof gradient.First,a higher-than-expected
the proportionof housing
between4 and 5 kmis also apparentin thetwopreviousperiodssuggesting thatthisis best
explained in relationto a longer-term view of trends.
Secondly,owing to thelack of com-
pactness in the of the
previousperiod growth, placing of theedge ofthe built-upareaforthe
purposes of the graph on the basis used for previousperiodsmay not be entirelysatisfac-
tory since a greatdeal of has
development already occurred as farout as 5 km.If thegraph
werestartedat approximately thisdistancethecurveswouldbe muchmorein linewiththe
expectedpatternfora periodof housingslump.
Since thereare dangersin relyingsimplyon ratiosofinstitutional to housingdevelop-
mentand ignoringvariationsfromzone to zone in therelativeamountsof urbandevelop-
mentinvolved,this information is givenin Figure 7 in whichnew developmentin each
period is expressedas a percentageof the land available fordevelopmentin each zone.
Here theconcentration of developmenton the immediateedge of thebuilt-uparea during

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 Building andurbangrowth
cycles 49
periodsof housingslump(1878-93 and 1909-23) and itsmorewidelydispersedcharacter
duringperiodsmainlydominatedby housingboom (I840-58 and I894-I908) is apparent.
The composite character ofthe1859-77periodis particularly evidentin theintermediate
character ofitsinstitutional curve.The marked diminution inhousing development during
periodsofslumpcompared withsustained, orevenincreased, institutional development is a
pattern consistent withthepostulated changesin therelative abilitiesofthetwousesto
competeforsites.It is a feature ofall periods(butespecially thelaterones)thateventhe
zoneadjacenttotheedgeofthebuilt-up areaexperiences considerably lessthantotalcon-
versionto urbanuse. Two mainfactors areresponsible forthis.First,in contrast to the
symmetry of the zonal pattern used formeasurement purposes, the outward spreadofthe
urbanareais notofuniform extentin all directions. Secondly, although closein are
sites
morefavoured fordevelopment, a certainamountof leap-frogging takesplace leaving
inliersofruralland.
So fartheanalysishas revealeda largemeasureof conformity betweenactualand
postulated development as faras individual of
phases building cycles concerned.
are It re-
mainsnowtobe seenwhether, incombination, thesedevelopmental phases create an over-
all pattern consistent withthemodel.In Figure8, thecurvesofthepercentage ofavailable
landconverted to thetwouses duringthefiveperiodsare superimposed and thezones
characterized by differentproportions of the two land uses are indicated diagrammatically.
A tendency forthereto be largeareasofinstitutional development in,first, thezone at
approximately 3 km (withcorrespondingly low scores for housing) and laterin thezoneat
approximately 6 km is evident. The intervening zones,especially between 4 and 5 km,tend
to havea lowproportion ofinstitutional in all
development periods. It should be noted,
however, that a highproportion ofavailable land converted to a particular urban use will
notappreciably altertheland-usecomposition of a zone thathas alreadylargelybeen
developed inprevious periods.Thus,inthecaseoftheI909-23 period,thepercentages for
zonesneartheedgeofthebuilt-uparea(wheretheresidueof undeveloped landat the
beginning oftheperiodis almostdowntotheminimum threshold ofI 5 percent)willhave
littleeffect on theoverallcomposition ofthesezones.In general, thepattern doessuggest
that,whereoutwarddevelopment is alreadycomplete, thelandscapehas takenup a form
approximating to theone hypothesized, and is showing signsofdoingso wheredevelop-
mentis nearing in
completion 1923. However, since the pattern inthelandscape lacksper-
fectsymmetry, itscharacter is inevitably somewhat blurredwithina framework ofgeo-
metrically-drawn concentric zones.
It is important at thispointnottooverlook themanner inwhichthevariousdevelop-
mentalphaseshavecombined to producea zonalpattern in thelandscape.It is significant
that,evenallowing forthealternative innerendpointat 5 kmforcurve5 discussed earlier,
thereare stillthreeinsteadof the hypothetical two periodscontributing to the inner
institutional zone shownin Figure8. Evidently the postulatedsynchronism between
building-cycle phaseandland-usedevelopment maybe considerably distorted in thereal
world.A majorpartoftheexplanation in thisparticular case is thatthei840-58 period
providedsucha largebutincompact expansionofthehousingareathatthesucceeding
shortcycle,occupying only19 years,was able to do littlemorethanfillin thispatchy
development. In thiswaya wholecyclewas 'lost' betweenthe I840-58 periodof pre-
dominantly boomconditions andthe1878-93slump.
One further point that has emerged from mostoftheindividual periodcurvesdeserves

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50 J.W.R.WHITEHAND

60- 2

50-

<Z 30-
40- . ,

\ \
a \J

10
0 -

, 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 KM

c DISTANCE CITYCENTRE
FROM

z 3.
10- " ,
u
1. ;2 , -.-_

3 4 5 8 7 9
a 10 11 KM

CO

't0 / s

1. 1840-58 2. 1859-77 3. 1878-93 4. 1894-1908 5. 1909-23

as a percentage
FIGURE8. New development of availableland forfiveperiodssuperimposed:(A) housing
(B) institutional
development, development positionsof the landscapezones
(includingthe approximate
emerging in I923)

to be consideredin reviewingthe overall patternof growth.This is the repeatedand

occasionallypronounceddeviationsofactualcurvesrelativeto an expectedpatternderived
fromrent-distance Attentionis drawnto thesein the graphsof residualsin
relationships.
Figure 6 but deviationsmay also be inferredfromlocal reversalsof generaltrendsin
Figures7 and 8. The factthatsomeofthesedeviationsarefixedinlocationovertime(thatis,
they do not move outwardas developmentmoves outward),suggestsa systematicin-
adequacyin themodel.It shouldnotbe overlookedthatthezones shownat approximately
3 km(institutions)and 4-5 km(housing)in Figure8 are at theverysame distancespicked
out by the graphsof residuals.Thus, althoughthe cyclicalforceswe are postulatingare
undoubtedlyat work,theformand locationof theeventualoutcomein thelandscapemay
be heavilyconstrainedby otherfactors.

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 Building andurbangrowth
cycles 5I
Of thesefactors notallowedforin themodel,an important one is likelyto be the
mutualattraction and repulsionof land uses. The modelassumesthateach locational
decisionis independent ofpreceding decisions
whereas, inreality, oncea particular usehas
beenlocated,itwilltendtoattract orrepelsubsequent claimants fornearby sites(J.W. R.
Whitehand, I967). Thus,forexample, itcouldbe arguedthatoncean institution hasbeen
locatedina particular distancezonethelikelihood ofotherinstitutions beinglocatedinthat
zoneis thereby increased. The highoccurrence ofinstitutional sitingsatthe3 kmdistance
intheI909-23 periodis almostentirely theresultofneworancillary institutional develop-
menttakingplaceadjacentto existing institutions-animportant processnotallowedfor
inthemodel.In theory, areasofhighandlowconcentrations couldbe createdentirely by
somesuchprocessof cumulative causation-conforming stochastic
to a modelin which
theprobabilities foreachsitingareweighted according to theexisting pattern ofsitings.
However, if such a process were paramount, patches rather than zones would result.
A secondfactor, in
perhapsacting conjunction with mutual attraction and repulsion, that
might create permanent residualsat fixed is
distances, inequalities in the surface that trend
roughly parallelto thedistancezones,suchas physicalfeatures and administrative and
ownership boundaries. Such inequalities act
might selectively in relation to potential site
users(Whitehand, I967). In this respectthe roleofantecedent features, such as country
houses,in attracting institutionsto particular
sitesrequiresa thorough investigation.
CONCLUSIONS
As a testofa hypothesis,thepresent workhasseriouslimitations derivingfrom thenature
of theinformation used. The hypothesized derivative(developments in the landscape),
ratherthanthehypothesized cause(bid rents),is beingevaluated. However,establishing
therentsorpricesthatpotential usersareprepared toofferforsitesis virtuallyimpossible
eveniflandis publicly auctioned. Evenestablishing theactualsalepricesoflandis exceed-
forBritish
inglydifficult cities,although theprospects foreventuallydoingso aregreater in
Scotlandthansouthof theborder12. Giventhatwe haveforthepresentto workwith
developments aloneandlargely inignorance ofpricespaidforland,itisunfortunate thatthe
development data themselveshave certainalmost inevitablelimitations.
These stem partly
fromthefactthatitis necessary to operatein lengthytimeunits(at leastofseveralyears)
unlessa verylargetestarea,generally precludedforotherreasons,is beingconsidered.
Such lengthy timeperiodsare necessary in orderto havesufficient institutionalsitings,
whichtendto be fewin number butlargein area,in orderto permit distance-probability
curvestobe drawn.Yetbyhavingsuchlongperiodsthereis a dangerofobscuring critical
phasesofdevelopment in theresulting aggregate curves.
It shouldnotbe forgotten thatthereis an important factorinaddition torentsandthe
developments withwhichwe aredealing,namelythetransfer oflandthatnormally pre-
cedesurbandevelopment andis theoutcome oftheprocessofbidding forland.In equating
thebiddingprocesswitha development in thelandscape, whichmayor maynotfollow
immediately, thereis a definite of misunderstanding
possibility theconnection between
development andstagein thebuilding cycle.Hereit hasbeenassumedthattheperiodof
landpurchase is generally
thesameas theperiodofdevelopment. Workcurrently in pro-
gressin thisfieldsuggeststhattheerrors resultingfromthisassumption aregenerally ofa
loworderin relation to thetimeperiodsthathavebeenselected13.
Evenwithin thelimitationsofthepresent datacertainextensionstothetestprocedure

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 52 J.W.R.WHITEHAND
used heremightbe instructive. A logicalnextstagemightbe to simulatea landscapefor
each periodin turnby Monte Carlo methods,using probabilitiesbased on hypothesized
bid-rentfunctionscoupledwithinformation about theactualextentof the area developed
by thetwouses in each period.A comparisonoftheactualand simulatedlandscapeswould
thenrevealintra-zonalas well as inter-zonalresiduals.This would, however,exceed the
limitedobjectivesof this paper whichhas concerneditselfwiththe implicationsof the
model as faras distancefromthe built-uparea is concerned.For thispurpose,zonal ag-
gregatesare adequate and a graphicalcomparisonhas provedsatisfactory.
Furtherworkmustbear in mindthe limitationsof the model. It is consideredhere
onlyin relationto theprocesswherebyland is convertedfromruralto urbanuse; neither
the appropriateness of its assumptionsnor its suitability forelaborationare consideredin
relationto the changesthattakeplace withinan urbanarea. The empiricalelementin the
modelhas requiredthatitbe lockedintothepatternsevidentin a particular area and during
a particulartime.Given actual distance-probability relationships for two land uses, this
paper has triedto determinewhethertheycould have been the outcomeof certainhypo-
theticalbid-rentcurves.While the findingsso farare broadlyconsistentwiththe hypo-
thesis,it is important to underlinethefactthataccessibility is by no meanstheonlyfactor
controllingthe probabilityof urban developmentin the test area, even allowingfor a
sizeable difference betweenan accessibilitysurfaceand the straight-line distancesurface
used in the presentinvestigation. The leap-frogging of housingdevelopmentto obviously
less accessible sites confirmsthat otherforcesare intervening, althoughsome of these
forcesmayactuallybe increasingratherthanreducingthelikelihoodthata landscape,con-
sistingofalternatezones of relatively low and relatively highinstitutional coverage,willbe
created.Differences betweenindividualbuildingcycleswilltendto interfere withtheideal
in whicheach buildingcycleis represented in the landscapeby a pair of beltsof highand
low institutional coveragerespectively.Furthermore, in spite of the factthat aggregate
curvesofdevelopmentplottedagainstdistancemaybroadlyconformto thosepostulated,if
the spreadof housingis relatively patchy(a characteristic of the inter-war periodin many
citiesand, as has been seen,of the 1840-58 periodin north-west Glasgow),a moreor less
randomadmixtureof housingand institutions might result if other factors(such as the
mutualattraction and repulsionoflanduses) werenotoperatingagainstthis.The relevance
of citysize and thechangingcharacterof movementpatternsmustalso be bornein mind.
If a cityis largeenoughto giveriseto a suburbanrail system,a multi-centre (ratherthan
single-centre) zonal is
pattern likely to arise and, even in smaller cities,changesin com-
muting and other movement patternsover time will result in variations fromthe simple
bid-rentcurves,and hence the zonal land-use pattern,postulatedhere on the basis of
straight-line distance.
Two aspects of the extensionand wider applicationof the workdeservemention.
First,therewouldappearto be no majordifficulty in incorporating withinthemodelother
uses contributing to theextensionof theurbanarea,notablyindustry.Secondly,although
this paper has emphasizedcertainrecurrentaspects of urban land-use extension,the
empiricalfindingswould appear to be of much wider relevance.Thus, to cite a single
example,the tendencyforthe gradientof the new urban development-distance curveto
vary over time suggestsan obvious conceptuallink with the developmentof different
modes of urbantransport.
Althoughthe presentworkis onlyat a rudimentary stage,attentionshouldbe drawn

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 Building andurbangrowth
cycles 53
tothefactthatthepresent accordtosomeextent
findings withthoseofwork,largelyinthe
Germanmorphological on urbanfringe
tradition, belts.Adopting
a largelyinductiveap-
proach,incontrast
totheessentially
hypothetico-deductive
approach adoptedhere,several
workers,notablyM. R. G. Conzen (I960 and I962), have recognizedthe tendencyfor
formerly landusesand theirsitesuccessors
peripheral to be characterized
bya belt-like
distribution
withinurbanareas.It is importantthatworkofthepresent typeshouldproceed
withan awareness ofthegeneralprinciples thathavebeenformulated concerningthepro-
cessesat workin theformation and development ofurbanfringe belts.Equally,it needs
emphasizing thatanalysesoftheThiiniantypewhich,in spiteoftheirGermanic origins,
havehitherto beenmainlyAmerican intheirurbanapplications,
canactas a valuablecom-
plement to thepredominantlyinductive approaches thathavecharacterizedmuchofthe
bestworkin theGermanmorphological tradition.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authoris grateful
tothenumerouspeoplewhohelpedin thelengthy taskofsearching through a varietyofsources
inordertoestablishthedatesofdevelopments. In particular,
considerable
helpwasreceivedfromMr J.A. Fisherand
thestaffoftheGlasgowRoomat theMitchellLibrary,Glasgowand fromMr H. K. MackayofBaillie'sInstitution,
Glasgow.Dr A. S. Morris,Mrs I. M. L. Robertsonand Mr C. P. Lo kindlygaveadviceon a preliminary draftof this
paper.The illustrations
weredrawnby Mr I. F. Conochiein theDepartmentofGeography, University ofGlasgow.
The authoris indebtedtoMr I. E. Jonesand Dr and MrsJ.A. Hellenforadviceon thetranslation of theabstractand
captions,and to the Universityof Birmingham fora granttowardsthe cost of illustrations.

NOTES
i. For the purposesof thisstudythe following are the maincategoriesof land use definedas institutional:
educational,medical,military,centraland local government,research,recreational
(includingclubsand publicopen
spaces) and religious(includingburialgrounds).
2. The othermajorcomponent in theconversionof landfromruralto urbanuse is industry.
3. The term'bid rent'is used hereto denotetherent(or price)thata potentialuseris preparedto offerfora
site,as distinctfromtherentactuallypaid to securethatsite.For a discussionof 'bid rent'and 'bid price'see W.
Alonso (1960 and 1964).
4. Attention in thispaperis confined entirelytothechangefromruraltourbanuse.The problemofwhether or
notan institutional siteis laterredevelopedforhousingis ignored.
5. It was possibleto date accuratelythe majorityof institutional sitingsfromlocal collectionsof historical
materialin Baillie'sInstitution and theMitchellLibrary.Two otherGlasgowcollections, theBarlanarkCollection,
housedin theRoyalFacultyof Procurators, and materialin thePeople's Palace wereused to a muchlesserextent.
For dataon housingareastheOrdnanceSurveymapsand plansand thePostOfficeDirectoriesand mapswereused,
thedeficienciesofthelatterbeingrectified wherepossibleby moreaccuratebut less comprehensive sourcessuchas
thoseusedfortheinstitutional data.Fortunatelythetwoareaswithinsufficient dataarerelatively
smallandfarenough
fromthecentrenotsignificantly to affect
thedatain theformpresentedin thispaper.
6. Since housingdata werelargelyobtainedon thebasisof theabsenceand presenceof development at two
dates,development could be absentat bothdatesand yethaveexistedtemporarily in the interveningperiod.This,
however,is probablya veryminorsourceof inaccuracy.
7. Owingto thelackofprecisedata,broadtrendsforperiodsbeforeI864 had to be inferred fromcartographic
evidenceand thedatesof buildings.
8. Coalescencewithcertainsmallsettlements (suchas Partickand Maryhill)doesoccurearlierbutthephysical
extensionsto thesesettlements are so smallrelativeto theoutwardgrowthof Glasgowitselfthattheireffect on the
overalldata can forthemostpartbe discounted.
9. All developments were mappedon the I: 0 560 scaleand theirareasmeasuredby superimposing a fine-
meshtransparent grid.Wherea land-useboundarycoincidedwitha road,measurements weretakenfromthecentre
of theroad.Thus thearea occupiedby roadswas subsumedunderadjacentuses.
io. ReportbytheCityArchitect onthefeuing landsadjacenttothepublicparksoftheCityofGlasgonw, printedby
RobertAnderson,1884.Availablein the MitchellLibrary,Glasgow.
I . G. Martin'smapof Glasgowin I842 (availablein theMitchellLibrary)alreadyshowsstreetlayoutswest
of theRiverKelvinin Hillhead,althoughthemaindevelopment of housingin thisarea did notoccuruntilseveral
decadeslater.

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54 J.W.R.WHITEHAND
12. The Register
ofSasinesprovidesa recordofall landtransactionsin Scotland,althoughunfortunately
the
searchprocedureinvolvedin ascertaining
sale pricescan be extremely
laborious.
I3. The authoris currently
preparinga paperon therelationshipbetweenlandtransactionsand thebuilding
cycle.

REFERENCES
ALONSO,W. (I960) 'A theoryoftheurbanlandmarket',Pap. reg.Sci. Ass. 6, 149-57
ALONSO,W. (1964) Locationand landuse(Cambridge,Mass.), i6
CONZEN,M. R. G. (I960) 'Alnwick,Northumberland; a studyin town-plananalysis',Trans.Inst.Br. Geogr.27
CONZEN,M. R. G. (I962) 'The plananalysisofan Englishcitycentre',Proc.int.geogr.Un.,Symp.in urbangeography
(Lund, I960), 383-414
GARRISON, W. L. et al. (I959) Studiesofhighway development andgeographicchange(Seattle),62-4
ISARD,W. (I956) Locationand spaceeconomy, 200-6
LEWIS,J. PARRY (I965) Buildingcyclesand Britain'sgrowth
MORRILL, R. L. (I965) 'Expansionoftheurbanfringe:a simulation experiment',Pap. reg.Sci. Ass. 15, 185-99
MUTH,R. F. (1961) 'Economicchangeand rural-urban land conversions',
Econometrica 29, I-23
STONE,P. A. (1964) 'The priceof sitesforresidentialbuilding',EstatesGazette189,85-9
WHITEHAND, J. W. R. (I967) 'Fringebelts:a neglectedaspectofurbangeography', Trans.Inst.Br. Geogr.4I, 230-I

RESUME. Les cyclesde constructionet le dessinspatialde la croissance

urbaine.On examineici en relationdu cyclede
construction, quelques presomptions deriveesde l'analysedu typevon Thiinen.Un modelehybrided'un aspect
majeurdu processusde la conversionruralea urbainede l'exploitation de la terre,particulierementcommeelle est
des logements
associeea la localisation et des institutions,estdecrit.La contribution de ce modelea une intelligence
de la composition du dessinde l'utilisationurbainedu sol estexamineeet quelquespresomptions fondamentales sont
verifieesdans une majeurevillebrittanique.Quelques presomptions sonttrouveesconsistantes avec le modeledu
developpement dansl'airede l'epreuvemaisdes imperfections dansle modelesonteclairees.On attirel'attention sur
la relationdes conclusionsa cellesdes etudesdans la tradition morphologique d'allemagne.
FIG. I. Des courbureshypothetiques
de la capacited'un usagerd'offrir
du loyer,et un paysageresultant
FIG. 2. Des relationshypothetiques
entrele pouvoirdes usagersd'offrirdu loyeret la distancede la limitede l'ag-
urbaine:(A) pendantun emballement
glomeration de construction,
(B) pendantun effondrement
de construction
FIG. 3. Des variations danslesproportions
hypothetiques desinstitutions
relatives nouvellesetdes logements
nouveaux
par rapporta la distancede la limitede l'agglomerationurbaine:(A) pendantun emballement de construction,(B)
pendantun effondrement de construction
FIG. 4. Le nombredes maisonsautorised'etreconstruit a Glasgowpar le <,Deanof Guild Court), I864-1968
FIG. 5. Une cartesimplifieede l'aired'6preuveindiquantles majeuresairesdes institutions
FIG. 6. Les partiesactuelleset sch6matiques des logementsnouveauxet des institutions nouvellespendantcinq
periodesparrapporta la distancedu centrede la ville.Les partiesactuellessontles moyennesmobilesde troiszones
de distances
FIG. 7. Des logements nouveauxet des institutions nouvelles(compositioncentesimalede la superficiedisponible)
pendantcinq periodespar rapporta la distancedu centrede la ville.Les pourcentages sontexprimescommesles
moyennesmobilesde troiszonesde distances
FIG. 8. L'exploitationnouvellecommepourcentagede la superficie disponiblepour cinq p6riodessuperposees:
(A) logements, (B) institutions(y comprisles placesapproximativesdes zonesde paysageapparaissant en 1923)

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG. Der Bauzyklusund die raumliche Anglagestddtischer

Entwicklung. In diesemBerichtwerden
gewisseAnnahmen,die auf die ThunischenUntersuchungen sind,in Beziehungzum Bauzyklus
zuruckzufiihren
Ein sichhierausergebendes
betrachtet. Zwittermodell
einesHauptaspekts
des Vorganges, derdie landwirtschaftliche
Nutzungdes Bodensder stadtischen weichenlasst,wirdbeschrieben,
besondersinsofern er sichauf die Lage von
Neubaugebietenzu Wohn-undoffentlichen Zweckenbezieht.Der Beitragdieses Modells zum Verstandnisder
Anordnung derstadtischen Bodennutzungsmuster wirderwogen,und einigeseinerzugrundeliegenden Thesenwer-
den am Beispieleinerbritischen mitdemErgebnis,dass manchesichals kongruent
Grosstadtgepriift, mitdemVer-
laufderEntwicklung des Testgebietserweisen,wahrendandereFehlkonstruktionen
des Modellserstin Erscheinung
treten.Die Aufmerksamkeit wirdauf die BeziehungdieserErgebnissezu jenen der Arbeitenin der deutschen
morphologischen Traditiongelenkt.

KurvenderFahigkeiteinesVerbrauchers
ABB. I. Hypothetische Land-
Mietezu bietenund einedarausentstehende
schaft
ABB.2. Hypothetische
Zusammenhange der FahigkeiteinesVerbrauchers vom
Miete zu bietenmitder Entfernung
Rand einesbebautenGebiets:(A) wahrendeinemWohnungsaufschwung, (B) wahrendeinemWohnungsriickgang

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 Building andurbangrowth
cycles 55
ABB. 3. Hypothetische Veranderungen im relativenVerhaltnisder Neuinstituts-
und Neuwohnungentwicklung mit
der Entfernung vomRand einesbebautenGebiets:(A) wahrendeinemWohnungsaufschwung, (B) wahrendeinem
Wohnungsriickgang
ABB. 4. Zahl der Wohnungen, die I864-I968 vom,Dean of Guild Court'in Glasgowzum Bau zugelassenWurden
ABB. 5. Vereinfachte Kartedes Probegebietseinschliesslich
der wichtigsten
Institutsgebiete
ABB. 6. Eigentlicheundschematische VerhaltnissewahrendfunfZeitraumen derEntwicklung vomNeubau-wohnun-
genund offentlichen GebaudenmitEntfernung vonderStadtmitte. Die eigentlichen
Verhaltnisse
sinddie laufenden
Mittelwerte der dreiEntfernungsgebiete
ABB. 7. Das Verhaltnis der Neuwohnungs-und offentlichen Gebauden (wie Prozenteverfiigbaren Landgebiets)
wahrendfunfZeitraumenmitder Entfernung von der Stadtmitte.Die Prozentgehalte
sind die laufendenMittel-
werteder dreiEntfernungsgebiete
ABB. 8. Die Neuentwicklung wieProzenteverfiigbarenLandgebietswahrendfunfZeitraumen wirdauf(A) Wohnung-
sentwicklung, (B) Entwicklung von offentlichen
Gebauden(einschliesslichder Naherungslagen der im Jahre1923
auftretenden Landschaftsgebiete)
dariibergelegt

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