ENGDAT2 EXERCISE 3 05.2.

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Dayao, Audrey
Dugang, Cloe
Espina, Anton
Espos, Jazmine
Mapanoo, Darren

1. The National Chemical Plant consumes monthly electric power which is thought to be
related to the average ambient temperature (x1), the number of days in the month (x2),
the average product purity (x3), and the tons of product produced (x4). The past year’s
historical data are available and are presented in the following table:

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a. Fit a multiple linear regression model to these data.

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b. Estimate 𝛔2

Standard error (𝛔) = 11.787

𝛔2 = 138.923

c. Determine the standard errors of the regression coefficients.

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d. Predict the power consumption for a month in which x1 = 750F, x2 = 24 days, x3 =
90%, and x4 = 98 tons.

Using the regression equation:

y = -123 + 0.757 x1 + 7.52 x2 + 2.48 x3 - 0.481 x4
𝑦 = − 123 + 0. 757(75) + 7. 52(24) + 2. 48(90) − 0. 481(98)
𝑦 = 290. 317

e. Test the significance of regression using 𝛂= 0.05. What is the P-value for this test?

f. Use the t-test to assess the contribution of each regressor to the model. Using 𝛂 =
0.05. What conclusions can you draw?

Answer for e & f

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept -123.131 157.2561 -0.783 0.459294
x1 0.757289 0.27909 2.713425 0.03005
x2 7.518784 4.010121 1.874952 0.102926
x3 2.483079 1.809386 1.372332 0.212316
x4 -0.48114 0.555174 -0.86664 0.414856

𝐻0: β𝑗 = 0
𝐻𝑎: β𝑗 ≠ 0

Since the p-value for x1, 0.03, is less than the significance level of 0.05, reject H0.
While for the rest of the factors, x2, x3, x4, has p-values, 0.103, 0.212, 0.415, respectively,
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more than the significance level of 0.05, accept H0. In general, with the p-value of 0.5, it
is greater than alpha 0.05, thus, accept H0.

With this, there is evidence that average ambient temperature (x1) affect the
monthly electric power while the number of days in the month (x2), the average product
purity (x3), and the tons of product produced (x4) does not affect the monthly electric
power at 𝛂 = 0.05.

g. Find 95% confidence intervals on 𝛃1, 𝛃2, 𝛃3, 𝛃4.

Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept -494.98273 248.720241

x1 0.09734663 1.41723155

x2 -1.9636464 17.0012143

x3 -1.7954385 6.76159563

x4 -1.7939136 0.8316431

h. Find a 95% prediction interval on the power consumption when x1 = 75, x2 = 24, x3 =
90, and x4 = 98.

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i. Calculate R2 for this model. Interpret.

SSR = 5600.452812
SST = 6572.916667
2 𝑆𝑆𝑅 5600.452812
𝑟 = 𝑆𝑆𝑇
= 6572.916667
= 0. 852049873

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j. Plot the residuals versus 𝑦. Interpret this plot.

Figure 1. The Plot of Residuals versus Y.

The points on the scatterplot show which standardized residuals are in the range
of -10 to +10 with certain points outside the range indicating certain unusual results from
the problem. The points are still scattered randomly around the residual 0-line meaning
that the linear model is still appropriate in modeling this data.

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 k. Construct a normal probability plot of the residuals and comment on the normality
assumption.

Figure 2. Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals

Because of the points on figure 2. or the scatterplot form a line going upwards from
left to right meaning that there’s a positive correlation or relationship between the
variables so as one variable increases the other variables would also tend to
increase.

2. An industrial engineer is conducting an experiment on eye focus time. He is interested in

the effect of the distance of the object from the eye on the focus time. Four different
distances are of interest. He has five subjects available for the experiment. Because there
may be differences among individuals, he decides to conduct the experiment in a
randomized block design. The data obtained follows. Analyze the data from this
experiment (use α =0.05) and draw appropriate conclusions.

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Hypothesis

Ho: Distance has no effect on the subject.

Ha: Distance has an effect on the subject.

Test at α= 0.05

Calculations

Sum of Degree of
Source of variation Mean square Computed F P-value F criti
squares freedom

rows 32.95 3 10.98333 8.61 0.0025 3.49

0.0035
column 36.3 4 9.075 7.11 3.25

Error 15.3 12 1.25

Total 84.55 19

Analysis

We reject Ho if p-value < α

Since 0.003 < 0.05, then we reject Ho.

Conclusion

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There is sufficient evidence to come up with the conclusion that distance does have an effect on
the subject. Therefore, it can be concluded that distance has an effect on the subject at a level of
significance of α= 0.05.

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