Chapter 4: Basic

Probability
Bunhayag, Ann Ortiz
Moncopa, Angelica Garciano
Tagpuno, Riki Jonas
4.1 Basic Probability
Concepts
Tagpuno, Riki Jonas A.
Probability
• The numeric value representing the chance, likelihood, or possibility
that an event will occur.
• The chance that a given event will occur. (Merriam Webster, n.d.)

Example:
// There is a low probability that you will be promoted.
// There is a probability that the Vice Mayor will postpone the meeting
later.
Three Types of Probability
• A priori
• Empirical
• Subjective
A Priori Probability
• Stipulates that the outcome of the next event is not contingent on the
outcome of the previous event. (Kenton, 2021)
• The probability of an occurrence is based on prior knowledge of the
process involved.
A Priori Probability Example 1: Deck of Cards
• In a standard deck of cards, what is the a priori probability of drawing
an ace of spades?
• The number of desired outcomes is 1 (an ace of spades), and there
are 52 outcomes in total. The a priori probability for this example is
calculated as follows:
• A priori probability = 1 / 52 = 1.92%. Therefore, the a priori
probability of drawing the ace of spades is 1.92%.
A Priori Probability Example 2: Approval of
Legislations
• A legislation is discussed in a Regular Session. What is the a priori
probability of the legislation to be approved, deferred/laid on the
table, rejected?
• The number of desired outcome is 1, and there are 3 outcomes in
total.
• A priori probability of = 1/3 = 33.33%. Therefore, the a priori
probability of passing a legislation is 33.33%.
Empirical Probability
• The probabilities are based on observed data, not on prior knowledge
of a process.
• Uses the number of occurrences of an outcome within a sample set
as a basis for determining the probability of that outcome. (Halton,
2019)
• Surveys are often used to generate this kind of probability.
Empirical Probability Example: Survey on
Government Employee Job Satisfaction
• When the Human Resource Management and Development Office
presented a random survey in which they asked whether the
employee is enjoying their job or not due to a specific reason.
• 45% of employees stated that they are currently not enjoying their
jobs.
• There is a 0.45 probability that an employee is not satisfied.
Subjective Probability
• It is anyone’s opinion of what the probability is for an event.
• It is often the best you can do when you have no experience and/or
no theory.
Subjective Probability Example: Launching of
a New Tracking System in the Government
• The IT Department created a new software to be used by the
Sangguniang Panlungsod to help ease the tracking of documents.
• The Department Head of the SP stated a probability of 0.95 that the
system will be of use automatically.
• However, the IT department realistically stated a probability of 0.65
that the system will undergo changes due to user input and real time
application.
Events and Sample Spaces
• Event
• Joint Event
• Complement
• Sample Space
Event
• The possible outcome of a variable.
• Described by a single characteristic.

Example:
// When you apply for a job/promotion, there are only two possible
outcomes: being hired/promoted or not.
Each of the outcome represents an event.
Joint Event
• An event that consists of two or more characteristics.

Example:
// Two legislations approved on omnibus motion after being amended
one by one.
Getting the first legislation approved and the second legislation
approved.
Complement
• The complement of event A includes all events that are not part of A.

Example:
// The complement of a legislation being approved is being rejected or
deferred because those are the only events the a legislation is not
approved.
Sample Space
• The collection of all possible events.

Example:
// The sample space of applying consists of being hired/promoted and
being rejected.
// The sample space of a motion for the legislation is approved,
deferred, and rejected.
Contingency Tables and
Venn Diagrams
Tagpuno, Riki Jonas A.
Contingency Table
• Used in statistics to summarize the relationship between several categorical
variables.
Planned to apply for Actually Applied
Privilege Speech
Yes No Total
Yes 4 1 5
No 1 10 11
Total 5 11 16

• The sample space consists of 16 respondents. Simple events are “apply for privilege speech”, “did
not apply for privilege speech”, “applied” and “did not plan to apply”.
Venn Diagram
• An illustration that uses circles to show the relationships among things or finite
group of things.
• Circles that overlap have something in common while circles that don’t, do not
share something.

10 5 1
Simple Probability
• The probability of occurrence of a simple event.

X = # who planned to apply (6); T = total number of City Councilors (16)

5
= = 0.3125
16
• Thus, there is a 0.3125 (31.25%) chance that a City Councilor will
apply for a privilege speech.
Joint Probability
• Refers to the probability of an occurrence involving two or more
events.
• Example is the probability of getting heads on the first toss of a coin
and heads on the second.

P (Planned to apply and actually applied) = Planned to apply and actually applied
Total # of City Councilors
4
= = 0.25 or 25%
16
Marginal Probability
• The marginal probability of an event consists of a set of joint
probabilities.

Formula:
• P(A) = P(A and B1) + P(A and B2) + … + P(A and Bk)
 Planned to apply Actually Applied
for Privilege
Speech
Yes No Total
Yes 4 1 5
No 1 10 11
Total 5 11 16
P(Planned to apply) = P(Planned to apply and applied) + P(Planned to apply but did
not apply)

4 1 5
= + = = 0.3125 or 31.25%
16 16 16

Note: Same result as adding the number of outcomes that makes the simple event
“planned to apply.”
General Addition Rule
• The probability of A or B is equal to the probability of A plus the
probability of B minus the probability of A and B.
Formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
= P (Planned to apply) + P(Actually applied) – P(Planned to apply and
actually applied)
 Planned to apply Actually Applied
for Privilege
Speech
Yes No Total
Yes 4 1 5
No 1 10 11
Total 5 12 16

= P (Planned to apply) + P(Actually applied) – P(Planned to apply

and actually applied)
5 5 4
= + –
16 16 16
6
= = 0.375 or 38%
16
4.2 Conditional
Probability
Computing Conditional Probabilities
• Conditional probability refers to the probability of
event A, given information about the occurrence of
another event, B.
 Planned to apply Actually Applied
for Privilege
Speech
Yes No Total
Yes 4 1 5
No 1 10 11
Total 5 12 16

What is the probability that a male City Councilor applies for a Privilege Speech?

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) 4
P (A|B) = = = 0.266 or 27%
𝑃(𝐵) 5

Thus, there is a 27% probability that a male City Councilor applies for a Privilege
Speech.
Decision Trees
• An alternative to the contingency table.
• Is a branching set of rules used to classify a record, or predict a
continuous value for a record.
Planned to Actually Applied
apply for
Privilege
Speech

Yes No Total 4
Yes 4 1 5 P(A and B) =
16
No 1 10 11
Total 5 12 16 5
P(A) =
16
1
P(A and B’) =
16
# of City
Councilors (16)
1
P(A’ and B) =
16
11
P(A’) =
16
10
P(A’ and B’) =
16
Independence
• When the outcome of one event does not affect the probability of
occurrence of another event, the events are said to be independent.
 Topic Satisfied with the topic
Yes No Total
Labor and Land 66 16 82
Public Safety and Order 166 52 218
Total 240 60 300
• In the follow-survey in relation to the speeches given by the City Councilors, people were asked if they
agree with the topics that they gave.
66
300 66
P (Satisfied | Labor and Land) = 82 = 82 = 0.8
300
Which is equal to
240
P (Satisfied) = 300 = 0.8
Thus, being satisfied with the speech and the topic given are independent.
Multiplication Rules

• The way to find the probability of two events happening at the same
time.
 Topic Satisfied with the topic
Yes No Total
Labor and Land 66 16 82
Public Safety and Order 166 52 218
Total 240 60 300

• Suppose 2 are randomly selected from the 82 citizens. What is the probability
that those 2 are satisfied with the topic on Labor and Land?
Where A = second selected and B = first selected
P(A and B) = P(A|B)P(B)
65 66
= = 0.6456 = 64.56%
81 82
Thus, there is a 64.56% chance that both citizens sampled were satisfied with the
topic.
Marginal Probability Using the General
Multiplication Rule

• Find the probability of A, probability of B1, and probability of B2.

• We’ll use the Table on Slide #23 for sample.
 Planned to apply for Actually Applied
Privilege Speech
Yes No Total
Yes 4 1 5
No 1 10 11
Total 5 11 16

4 5 1 11
• P(A) = +
5 16 11 16
4 1
= +
16 16
5
=
16
= 0.3125 or 31.25%
Sources
• Merriam Webster. (n.d.). Probability. Retrieved December 8, 2021, from https://www.merriam-
webster.com/dictionary/probability
• Kenton, W. (2021, November 17). A Priori Probability. Investopedia.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/apriori.asp
• Corporate Finance Institute. (n.d.). A Priori Probability. Retrieved December 8, 2021, from
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/other/a-priori-probability/
• Halton, W. (2019, June 14). Empirical Probability. Investopedia.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/empiricalprobability.asp
• Siegel, A. (2016). Practical Business Statistics (Seventh Edition). Science Direct.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/mathematics/subjective-
probability#:~:text=A%20subjective%20probability%20is%20anyone's,you%20cannot%20use%20theor
etical%20probability).
• Kenton, W. (2021, September 1). Venn Diagram. Investopedia.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/venn-diagram.asp
• Dr. Trefor, B. (2017, November 19). Intro to Conditional Probability. YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibINrxJLvlM
Sources
• The Institute for Statistics Education. (n.d.). Decision Trees. Retrieved December 10, 2021, from
https://www.statistics.com/glossary/decision-trees/
• Multiplication Rule Probability: Definition, Examples. (n.d.). Statistics How To. Retrieved
December 12, 2021, from https://www.statisticshowto.com/multiplication-rule-probability/
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