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    Probability

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    NITIN Sharma

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    y THEORY nom exon 49 aganit)= ARPA TTT 585 @ 16 4 pone) BB)= PLBIP(B) =F As oS prone red and one bie ball) = P(RAB)+PIBOR) = v{RB)+ PBR) = PLR)P(B) + P(B)P(R) a8)o(Se tai 2s lqai) i tt) 121121 121 ple 2: One bay contains 4 svhite balls and 2 black balls; another bag contains 3 white Psa ls. [ove balls rev tranom foreach, the roe ha al are white (ii)bothare black and (iii) one is black and one is white. olution ¢ /A~event to draw white ball ftom first bag and —ees 1 AmB) = P(AB) = P(A) PLB) = eG-t @ [etd - event to draw black ball from first bag and — ea. HdnB)=PA8)= ALA) P(2) => 55, are possible i) White from first bag and bla¢k from second bag or first bag and white from second bag. +P(B9 A) = P(AB)+ P(BA) = P(A\P(B)+ P(B)P( 4) + 3a)\-3 6 8) 4 fair die is tossed twice, ——, a 5 or 6onthe first ,2,3 or 4 on the second toss (MBA. (PT) 2005) ¥ THEORY 601 al jsweknow MANA) P(4)x( 2 2). Pldnk) 04 sms ?( 4 P(A) 06° ie 28, A market research firm is interested in surveying certain attitudes in small cont Tere are 125 a broken down according to income, ownership of ownership ofa relep hone Households with annual | Households wihannual | Total Income of Rs. 8,000 or less'| Income above Rs. 8,000 Telephone Zz 5 the probability ofolnaming a TV owner is drawing at random ? iid has income over Rs. 8,000 and js a telephone subscriber, what is that hehasa TV? ‘the conditional probability of drawing a household that owns. TY, given that isa telephone subscriber? ‘ownership of TV’ and ‘telephone subscriber’ statistically independent? (B.B.A, 2006) total 125 persons out of which 75 have TV set. Thus 0 ee 165 vault 73 reer Pug al ad 123 whose household income is above Rs. 8,000 and are t of these 18 own TV set. Hetioe the probability of this _ @ oa | sTY THEORY 50s PAO Gince the events are independent the probability that allthe five students fail to solve the problem is: ‘The problem will be solved if' anyone of them is able to solve it. PaLBUCUDY E)=1-P(dn BAC ADE) 2 The probability tha he problem willbe soled ==> Example 17 : Accandidate is selected for interview of management trainees for 3 companies. For the first company there are 12 candidates, for the second there are 15 candidates and for thethird there are 10 candidates, What is the probability eihia gating job at least at one of thecompany ? (MBA. (PT) 2007) Selation : Let P(4) = Probability of selecting in First company = Seem tacestac i Satin este -* of not getting selected in any ofthe company P(A BC) ©)=P(A)xP(B)=P(C)-(1-75 A(t H{i-t) =1- Pa Bt), PCN = ———————S-S—‘<;P~:”:”:”:”t:ti i i‘i‘i;C;S y C y THEORY - rf Jc ball from the first bag P(C)=— i blac! pity oF deawing * probe @ e, i hall from the second bag PUD) m , ofdrawing a black protality ee eas siiy that both are black PICMD) =" a 24 Sone is white one is black” is the same as event “either the first is white and @ Tons ako te ists black andthe second is white e ity that one is white andl one is black ae p)+Pic8)= P(Ax PD) PIC) PLB) fi * 4/5 2\2 el Le EKG 3) 48° 48 24° hs 6.A-and Bplay 12 games of chess of whieh 6 are won by 4, 4 by B and 2 end in E ey ages 10 play3 mote games. Find the probability that ie Awinsallthe three games, Gi) two games end inatie, @ ‘Aand B.win alternatively and (iv) B-wins at least one game. z_1 solution: Here, Paje Sas P(tie)= 2. =| ona P(B)=+ = a 12 6 2 7 Lot ft 0 p(awwins all the three games) = P(A) P(A) P(A) =Sx5%5= 5 @ Bh ares een teen SME] ofeted) (teat) Sadat) tad (i) P(dend B win alternative) = P(4)P(B)P( A) + P(B)P(4)PLB) peas) sas eet I 2 conta; all 10 bi gosaBILITY. THEORY —_ Thus probability of getting y n ball fron IT te (2 p(B) = (ere bat 2» bug) id The combined probability Fthe two ey Wo events would be P(CAD)=P(CD)= Pic) Either of cases is possible P(A 8). p(C, py 2, 1019 sample 25. Aputse contains 2 silver = ther purse A ptirse iy selected at 8. Find the probability That ix er coin. Sohition + There are two possibilities A= first purse is selected and cain drawn som ti a <4 B= Second puirse is selected ard eain craw fr adom and 3 coin is drawn from it Probability that first purse is selected out of two pus Now this purse contains 2 silver and 4 copper Henee, the probability of drawing a sitver coin from it is P| P(E) = P(40B)= P(A)» P| =) eee 377g (events are dependent D ¢ Similarly, P(E,)= COB) P(C)xP) 423 Since A and B are mutually exclusive, Either E, or E, event is possible therefore 2_ 741219 m 42 Example 26. 60% of the employees of the XZ Corporation are college graduates. Out of these, 10% are in sales, Out of the employees who did not graduate from college, 80% are in sales. What is the probability that an employee selected at random. required probability P(E, ,)=P(E,)+ P(E.) = (i) lsin sales? (i) Is neither in Sales nor a College graduate ? (M.B.A. 200%) Solution : Let A be the events that an employee selected is college graduates and 8 be the vents that an employee selected is not college graduates. marHEMaTics ® STATISTICS For , oe a payed, wot, PORAHPAYs that both are selected: fee Plan B)= MAPB)=5"5~ 45 jaselected and wile is not selected Aok=event | B =event that the husband 144 @ 4 Plan B)=P(AB)=7"5 fhe husband is not selected and wife is selected 4B =event that ' 7 61h 26 FB) = PAB) = 595 * 55 £=(4nB)U(408)= event that only one of them is selected. psy Sees 35 35 35 7 (@ none of tem willbe selected = P(4.0.B)) Pan Bana eet heen 78. 38 + The oddsagainst 4 speaki : fa pe ae Fa ee nile ons in favour f (Both Contradict (i) Both Agree on Same Statement ‘Solution : Let 4 be the event th 2 thar 4 = rn Speaks the trith and B be the event that B ' Seainst 4 is speaking truth are 4:6 Probability that 4 i ‘Peaks thetuthis p(4) ol noua (ME sty t hus the Pr 4 and B EO @ As a @ Atel Either oft p(Ac Aand BA @ itp qi Ify Thus the P(AN: EB 12.1 husband now ‘ @® B Gi) 0 @ C chal are ing fent even Ibs« pe TOR A) _ Plan) _ (ya) { ation? |= — B) AB) As) "5 | (B)x P| 2 \B p(AUB)=P(A)* P(B)- P(A p(AnB)=1—P(4V8)- example 30. nacertain town, mak 20% ofthe males and es form 50% of the population. It isknown are unemployed. A rese chat the employment situation selects unemployed p aye i student s isthe probability that sons.at random. What the person selected is = (i) Male (ii) Female (MLB.A.(Antoy2014) ¢ population of the town Solution 2 Based on the given data the following table depict. according to sexand employr : Empbyed Unemployed Total meet) om | ~ on | 030 Fels | _0475 | cons | os0_| fal ms 100] Leta male chosen be denoted by \/ and a female chosen be denoted by F ‘The male, female chosen is unemployed denoted by L 0.50 OL 0.10 0,025 PUM) =o P(U) =—— : P(M aU) =—— PIPL — 8) 1,00 se 1.00 ‘ ) 1,00 \=T 00 (@) Probability offselecting a male when itis known thatthe person is unemployed Mt). PE?) O10 _ 9,30 7] PU) 0 i (® Probability of selecting a female wh off P(ROU) _ 0.025 U) P(U) 0.12. en it is known that the person is unemployed 0.20 oumancy, 15% of the 20% of the students failed in of the students failed both in. Accountancy and dom. [fhe failed in Accountancy, what is the Example 31. Ina certain college students ‘viled in Mathematics, and 10 Mathematics. A students is selected at ram probability he also failed in Mathematics? Solution : Let 4’bs the event a student filled in Accoutaney and 8 bethe event a stuxient 3 i _ marnemarics & STATISTICS ; 598 rornatel¥ inthe following order Solution : ee pe peor @ Bhok, White, Black yy, (i) White ., Black, , ¥ . 0 uni Be aie balls prewar 5 ender porn) 5% iF (events are dependent) of p (i) Hfblack balls drawn Fit, the probability of drawine the balls ai riage o(enan) =< Sona (events are dependent) P{Cal ‘Thus the required probability #8 pwn) or ABWBW ) =o 751 (Beka dnS) ss 2) Example 25. 16134 13) (16 15: 14 13. aceite Find the proba } tt ae ee Solution : Th 78 72% 728 364 ya / Example 24. Bag 4 contains 3 green BeS | Banach I igeuaienis. ee { dravim at random ftom bag B. Find the probabil apeeeordt Probab | ‘cute bee teuepeeetes.. ball eth | Case 1': When the bail drawn fro bag B contains 26 t! I m the first bag is green. ! Hene P(4)= P green ball fom 1* bag) => a Transferred itin Hind ‘ bag no’ . P(E, ‘Thus probability of getting oo TR)=1 (£) of a)» Green balll from IT bag is given by re 4)? (ereem ball fom 2 bag) = 3 The combi r = combined probability ofthe tw, 9 ince. P(A B)=p events would be 2 requir et Meat a fase2: When the bal (events are ¢ these, 10% i drawn from the first bag i sales, What P(e)=P j (si (red batt ) Isi fom 1 ag) = § - eS 7 8 Solution ; | SVents that ; ‘Transferred it i inTnd J bag now the {1 bag containg (2G + 8R) a MATHEMATICS & STATISTc ot ee jnbothin Ae and mathematics is 4 = 10 15 B)=— 20 ea (AG Pia! P(B)=799 100 probably ora srudent failed in Mathematics when it is | ro! Accountancy is given bY i (8). P(A) _ (10/100) T= P| (a Pa) (auto) 20. ocality, out of5,000 peopleresiding, 1,200 are ahs, ‘ut ofthe 1,200 wha are above 30 years 200 « spetson is fernale, What is Example 32. In 3,000 are females. alter a person ischosen yon are told thatthe: is above 30 years ofsge? Solution : Let event 4 denote the person is above 30 years of age person isa fernale. 2000 3000 aa 200 Therefore P(B) 5000 4A r55 We se ‘e have to find the conditional probability ofevent 4 when B f Hee ?(§)= CAB). 200/000 __ 200 ?(B) 3000/3000 3000 0.067 Solution : Event 4 and B \ denote t Thea, P(A) = 0.60; P(B)=0.40 atthe Computer atid B are sod reso and P| ma ae PUAIP(B)=0.60%0.49 =o 24 ability ofseling at least ong comput : isgiven by pnosnerty TH P(AVB)= We have sso thar he Example 34. Fe are from different Solution = The p todiflerent suits =1x 22x 31 (Explans the 39 ca remaining fourth cai Example 35. | Mathematics ar Find the probat (i) he faih (ii) he pa Solution : P(: We kno e drawn out success sf different colours ? (MLA. 2005; B.B.A. 2004, 2000) fity that they ai (i) By Cmay hits - : The © Ae Ac alley ot GA may hit od Bmuy jos Ne ent that B hits the sexdceven tat Abs the target and B= eve ut i soit ent that Cts the tar $ moa, MARS and -P(A)=1- PLA : pales and AB)=1-P(8)=1- | L pic)== and PIC)=1-P(C)=! A,B and Care independent events. Now 5 The Probability that 4, B, « allay hit is given by PanBrc)= Plax PLB) Pl = = ‘the Probability that 8, Cay hit and may lose is panac)=P(4)P(B)«P(C)~ : proba (@ The Probability that 4, C may hit and B may lose is given by PAnBOc)= Pl 4)x P(B)« PIC) tly one Example 15+ A problem jn statistics is given to three stud 4, B and C whose chan the pr ility that the problem will be ‘ Ee 1 solving it are = +5 and 3 respectively. What is the prol solved ifall of then try independently ? (M.M.M. 2006; B.C.A. 2002; B.Com. 2005) event that B solves the prob Solution: 4=event that 4 solves the problem and B = v8) @=event that C salves the problem. and p(A)j=1-P(4)=! cmatics ® STATISTICS NATHEMA’ -ond die s 2, or on the see B =event of getting 1) 2.3 4 Required probabitny ? (8) “5 = P(A)xP(B) : vent d antpapputoponsens PCAOB) =P mon 3 + Two baxescontain respectively 6 br drawn from ea awn, & blue, one black balts ay, a - hiatis the probabil 7 blue nid Sock balls One balls draw ich box the balls drawnare of the same colour ? Solution : event to draw brown ball fos 'B-- event to draw brown ball from second bag. first bag and P(E = PA B)=P(AB)= P(A) x P(B) = fie'7. Similarly fboth drawn balls are blue PE, ) = T=" yy Similarly ifboth drawn balls are black P(E, ) = All three events are pair wise mutually exclusive, therefore Required probably =P(E, UE, WE,) = P(E,)+ P(E,)+P(E,) US 15) "as 225 Btample§ : One bag contains 4 white balls and 2 black balls ; another balls and $ black balls, {Fone balls drawn a random from each bag fin @ botharewhite Ss (i) one is black and the other is White {@ Pothare black, and bag contai Solution : (i iit n+ (i) Probability ‘of drawing a white bal) om the first bag Py A)= Pobtly of raving white bal . fom the 3 Since the events are ing Second bag A(z) = 3 8 \d the probabil +t wey ane! Ao’ probability: probailit probabiilit _, Thateven @ the seoor ‘The prob plant 4 (sh Example 6. 4 a tie. they agt @ / Gi) 4 Solution: H o Pl4 @ PQ seawit Ty THEORY pA B)=Pl4) +B Wehavete find cn that he sale at £0B)=0,604040-0.24=0.76 tional probabi it! probability that the computer A has been sold when it is ) (4) _ 0:66 s the chance that they all prample $4. Four cards are drawn without replace om different suits? . : m5) (MMM. and all of them be sattion ; The probebilty of drawing four cards without rep + different suits is given by “ D d should be rd belonged) out of (Explanation: The rd may be any one:‘T the 39 cards (exchiding the 13 cards of'the suit to which the remaining’$ |. For the third card only 26 card remaining of wo suits out of 30 and ths fourth card is drawn from the remaining last suit Le. 15 cards out of 49.) Example 35. In an examination fo and 45% studen Mathematios and in at least one of th: Find the probabilities that (ihe failed in Mathemat (i) he passed in Statistics ibjects respectively. An students only fit is known that he failed in Mathem (MET.2010) P(SOM)=045 + P(Mf)- (SoM) Solution : P(S) = 0.30, P(M) = 0. We know that P(S UM)=P( 0,45 =0.30+0.35-P(S7B) 0.45 =0.65-P(SO M) The probability of student: P (Selected student failed i PE aM)=PUN=PSM (@ The probability that the student passt Mathematics. P(SOM)_ 025 3 ) P(M u P(SO.M)=0.65-0.45 = 0.20 filed in both Mathematics and Statisties is 0.20. 0 in Mathematics only) M)=0.35-0.20 ed in Statistics when it is known: that 015 he failed in ary THEOR ab eprobabiity har eltsa ie #2) hus 2 spooetradict each other when jan Be an elisa hie P \B)=PI «P(B aX * { speaks the truth nd Btellsalie P( AGB) =P(4)*(B)=75 "75 3 ielisalie and B speakstheteuth P(A 1B)=P(A)xP(B)= a7 possible thus the required probability is given by ™ = 3 4.7 46 puP(anB)=(2%=|+| "75 |" i00 p(ArByeP(Ar)=\i0 0) *ki0"10)~ 100 50 {and B Agree onsame speak the truth ie. P(4-B)= P(4)*P(B) 67d. 10 10 siher of them is statement is possible by two ways [fboth of them oO @ sginenboih ofthemlisie.P(AB)=P(A)P(B)=>s ui Thus the probability that 4 and B agree on a statements By 1 & 2) he oT ABW P(ANB)=|— X= | +1 55 “10 eae PUANB)UP| )=|q0"10) lip 10) 100 50 Itis 8:5 against the wife who is 40 yrs old living till she is 70 and 4:3 against her Exahiple 12. jushand now 50 living till he is 80. Find the probability that: @ Both will be alive (ii) None willbe alive (@ Only onewillalive (iv) Atleast one will be alive (y) Only wife will be alive (M.B.A. (PT) 2012) Solution; The probability of wife for living further 30-years PU ) andihe probability of husband for living further 30 years PH) =", (0 Theprobability of both will be alive is given by 3 15 PH) =P) PH) => ; B42: ® Theprobabitity ofnone willbe aliveis given by MATHEMATICS @ STATISTIC 2 rn 60 _ 40 7 100. gelectedat random is grads 10 5 =<— (4)-10* it - saat joyee selectedat random isnot gradu: 80. ana gnenty 2 3 == 0 The Probably that an employee solected at randoms in sales i po( So tag) ae 100 100) (100 100) 100 (i) ‘The Probability that an employee selected at random is neither graduate is given By: (1-8) 4)(3 40)\_ 8 100 )*i00 }= | 100i09 100 = *” Example 27. The probability that a trainee willremain with a company is )-P(4cB) Memployee earns mi re that an employ ip! yee earns more than Rs, 10,000 per month is 0.5, The p miaieP( a) p( 4 UR)=06 propel! As we Thus Example 2 community telephone a aoe @ ~~ Wha @ Ina . ——— ~ ace we STATIST MATHEMA’ ) 5a5 _ 4) p(Bwinis n° game fay p(B wins at least one garne) =! P(A owns -1-n(B)P(B)P(B)= Ey favour OF FE 1 : re anak ost rnal by three inde oat wate oe er fod and 210-3 respectively WHat isthe probability that of the th, (an at EP majority will be favourable? ae Solution : The probaly ofr ee of a book by ttaee i, solution = etd crits are P(A)= 55 peas 7! PO) x43 PCtively igs For majority at east twa critics should be favourable. ‘ acd », _ Probabil . : esnexs= ) 0.4 favourable and (ii unfavourable 7's O “park «nc tenement wcpooanie Pe? = =P(A' . 6 i) fevourable and (i) unfavourable = =i" (0, pb = [3x2 Lh Oi 5'7 3) 175 (a 36 P(e ee Be E 175175 198 175 Alter sample 8 : A class consist axestehranndeaniee ts of 100 students, 25 of them selecting a fair comp) Poot, 40/of them are fair comple: are girls and 75 boys, 2 Prob Hexioned rich gi? xioned. What is the prot Solution , a 7 + Probability of selecting a fir co MBAGEX | mplexioned student — 40 _ 2 post. The | 100s probabil paved f 100 "= a $ 7 4 . 106 (ii 21 Tile of probaty 3 ! ility, the proba’ Then J: 3°35 2 ae. Top = 9.02 rhe simultaneous B ¢ sevens mene ‘ i ready . 2 ie rei ofthe sl praneven a mais). Sicslasly Sg pi rhe probably FN abit a is dent ihe ever has already happe,, scaled the conditional rarevent sien tain the HAPPEN @ probability of He et 520 ent ifthe r Fwo event are SH . ihe othe nordependon the BaP o on TH OREM OF PROBAB\;, > 7 MULTIPLICAT! ana probability) afoot ere mstallyindependen andi psa ato this hearer, TEINS ability of the two event ‘pall ! According be ater Ps =P : of the one isp, ” : «mikancously isthe produet ofp, and Ps: sol I Maltiplication Rules fey that both independent e\: | @ When tion Par Independent. The OOD Bwilloccuris: pldnB)= P(A) PCB) @ P(ANBOC)= P(d)xP(B)x PC) | (i) When Events are Dependent, Ifevents A and B are so related that the occun of isaffected by the occurrence ofA, then Aand B are called dependent : probability ofevent B depending on the occurrence of event Aiscalled probability and is written as P(B/A), The probability that both the dependent events A and B will occur, is given) remnant Mananci-naye 3) <) Example 1: An urncontaj : tains 7 ed and 4 by lue-balls, Two balls are drawn at random" replacement, Find the (2 red balls Probability ofgetting P(E =i P I Now 4, B and C are independent eres f = event ther the problees ienot solved by an 3 F 13 Tl Exampl For the 1 the third Brample 165.2 ‘ble in business statist ics is given to five st tos co Their hei chancey of solving fare -, a MATHEMATIC! i pility: ted to Conditional Probab a red scobability of dravving YO ' ingreplaced . Problems Relat ample 18. Fin the p the card drawn not Bet draws, Sera) = : drawing alking inthe fist dra" 52 Now Sotution : The probability eer it The probability of drawing @ king thes om 7 ‘gre dependent sp atireads givena King P| 4) 7 ‘Thus the eve a sotusios Therefore combined probability of the 1WO events: cc. ith os Pee — A /otacey=r(an)= 2a? (3) hs 221 The i 4A bs ce t Rample 19. A bag contains 3 red and 4 Ne uy draws are ~feplacement ; what is the probbility that both the balls are <0" 3 Solution : Probability of'drawing a red ball in the first draw P( 4) = a probat Probability of drawing a ted ball in the second draw given that the first bal ie P| 4-2 (since only six balls are left and only two out of them are red), ‘Thus the events are dependent on Therefore combined probability ofthe two events is he P MAB) =P(48)=P(4)nP( 2) 3,2 1 Example 20. A pairofice eo T a ” Apair ofdice is rolled. If as me ess the sum on the two dice is 9, find the pr tions: When two di , i L Aceare thrown togetherthe sample space 5 *s $A be the event that the sum is 9 Pace.S is given by ¢ =((6.3)(5,4) (4,5), 3,6) P= 9) (3,6)}; a 36° y Bb rh on ceding IN A=((6, 3) Show 3 when 4 G, 6); Ahashappened = {(4 MATHEMATICS @ STATISTI ¢ , a i P(4)=— and Probability ofapersonowning aTV 125 Pro subscriber P( 3) hone subscriber fs who is telep! Probability of person ability ofa person has TY setsand is telephone subscriby, Probability of (A cat ]=Househokis have TV set when it i known that Hou Subscriber neyo 4) P(AMB)=P( eS 5 | AS = | By PB) TS) (iv) Ifa and B are two events ofa sample Space S then these eve; vents, provided. P48) = P(4)x P(B) Ako if (4B) P(A) #(B) then 4 and B are called de Let A denote those who have TY and B those who are felephon Probability of Person owning a TV . P(.4)= pen: @oBABILiTY P(A Example 30. 20% of th the person sele (i) Male Solution : Bas according to se i) The mate P(M)= Probabili (M Pi) = a Probabilit *). Example 31, In students led i Mathematics. 4 Probabilt V heals Solution : Let 4 student A gai Folving a business statistics problem are $to Gar Ysodving the same problem are ldo 1é roe that the prove will b ndepe Ie th sived if’both try, independently of each habitity that none of them is able to solves the problem? athe event that the stud oni Let sot (MLB.A. 20006, 1998) lent X solves the problem P(A) pet =the event that th 14 4 he student ¥ \ probability {hat the problem W ill be solved OZ pcatleast one of them: solve the problem) aP(AV 14 solves the problem P(B)=—5—7 i4a16 30 B)=P(A)+ P(B)- PLAS \B)= P(A)+ PCB) —P(A):P(B) 6 14 _3 rm = =a 30 probabitty that none wil pan) = Pa PB)= t-PA P(B)\= 16_ 32 14 30 105 Alternatively : 5.20 of t Probability that none will solved the problem = proba A. (B.E Exaniple 10: A husband and wife appeared in an 1 post. The probability of husband’s selection is > am probability that n interview for two V acancies in the samt 7 dd that of wife’s selection is ne 1 = .Find the 5 (@) both ofthemw ill be selected, (@ anyone of them will be selected, {i none of them will be selected. (MPT. 2006) Solution : Let A = event that the husband is selected and B= event that the wife is selected. . Then J event that the husband is not selected and B=event that the wife Now P(4) = ; and isnot selected = 6 p(A)=1-P(A)=> mare Pe = Pret Piho#)=F f Hi a(t 37 veissiventy one willbe av AipanePiro OF Je ple) (PU yx PH) H afi-P0r nore yer (nstnP Ot N

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