MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS

Total Customers = 1000

D1 60% 600

D2 30% 300

D3 10% 100

Initial Condition I.C. = 0.60 0.30 0.10

%
D1 given to D2 & D3 No.

D1-------D2 30% 180

D1-------D3 10% 60
Total 40% 240

D1 taken from D2 & D3

D2--------D1 20% 60
D3--------D1 10% 10
Total 30% 70
Loss of 10% 170
Brand this month, Brand next month,
Feb 2021 March 2021
60%

30%

10%
Brand this month, Brand next month,
Feb 2021 March 2021
0.60

0.50

0.80
TRANSITION MODEL OR TRANSITION MATRIX OR
TRANSITION PROBABILISTIC MATRIX
TRANSITION MODEL OR TRANSITION MATRIX OR
TRANSITION PROBABILISTIC MATRIX
ASSUMPTIONS OF MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS

1. Finite state
2. First order process
3. Stationarity or Equillibrium
4. Uniform time period
TYPES OF QUESTION

1. Specific state probability (When time period is

given)
2. Steady state probability (When time period is
not given)
 To next week
From this week c1 c2 c3

c1 0 1 0

c2 3P 0 P

c3 3P P 0

3P + 0 + P =1
4P = 1
P = 1/4 = 0.25
 To next week
From this week c1 c2 c3

c1 0 1 0

c2 0.75 0 0.25

c3 0.75 0.25 0

3P + 0 + P =1
4P = 1
P = 1/4 = 0.25