LIR scenario: we assume that intensification closes the yield gap between the potential and

reference yield statistics by approx. 10% until 2050. However, we assume that there might be
constraints to achieving potential production because of traditional ploughs, weak cooperatives
and institutions, low technological development, less organized pest management or expensive
pesticides, lack of a strong agricultural policy or economic institutions like leasing and no access
to credit for the farmers. In general, in the LIR scenario we assume that “business as usual”
continues until 2050.

HIR scenario: we assume that intensification closes the yield gap between the potential and the
reference yield statistics by approx. 40% until 2050. In the high input there is a large potential to
increase rain-fed yields of maize and sorghum by increasing agricultural inputs through
mechanization and fertilization and by improving infrastructure, education and governance.

HII: we assume the same agricultural development as in high input rain-fed; however, in this
case the water deficits of rainfed agriculture would be compensated through irrigation.