DIAGNOSTIC

8
Series: Residuals
7 Sample 1991 2020
Observations 30
6
5 Mean 9.00e-15
Median 0.024478
4 Maximum 0.209356
Minimum -0.288304
3
Std. Dev. 0.117665
2 Skewness -0.534469
Kurtosis 2.815209
1
0 Jarque-Bera 1.470968
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 Probability 0.479273

JB-no normality issue

Ramsey RESET Test
Equation: UNTITLED
Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values
Specification: LUNEM LCPI LGDP LLABOR LPOP C

Value df Probability
t-statistic 0.774505 24 0.4462
F-statistic 0.599858 (1, 24) 0.4462
Likelihood ratio 0.740605 1 0.3895

F-test summary:
Sum of Sq. df Mean Squares
Test SSR 0.009791 1 0.009791
Restricted SSR 0.401510 25 0.016060
Unrestricted SSR 0.391719 24 0.016322

LR test summary:
Value
Restricted LogL 22.13766
Unrestricted LogL 22.50797

Unrestricted Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: LUNEM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/22 Time: 21:30
Sample: 1991 2020
Included observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

LCPI 1.022820 5.427610 0.188448 0.8521

LGDP 0.330728 1.551618 0.213151 0.8330
LLABOR 1.233137 6.542982 0.188467 0.8521
LPOP -4.079493 20.41052 -0.199872 0.8433
C 47.79269 226.1496 0.211332 0.8344
FITTED^2 0.165385 0.213536 0.774505 0.4462

R-squared 0.916330 Mean dependent var 4.338016

Adjusted R-squared 0.898898 S.D. dependent var 0.401793
S.E. of regression 0.127756 Akaike info criterion -1.100531
Sum squared resid 0.391719 Schwarz criterion -0.820292
Log likelihood 22.50797 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.010880
F-statistic 52.56804 Durbin-Watson stat 2.142501
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

RESET (F-test)- do not reject means specified

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Null hypothesis: No serial correlation at up to 2 lags

F-statistic 0.413568 Prob. F(2,23) 0.6661

Obs*R-squared 1.041422 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.5941

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/22 Time: 21:32
Sample: 1991 2020
Included observations: 30
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

LCPI -0.377634 1.153157 -0.327479 0.7463

LGDP 0.105137 0.276755 0.379892 0.7075
LLABOR -0.032177 1.047888 -0.030706 0.9758
LPOP -0.032352 1.506933 -0.021469 0.9831
C 1.883670 16.30518 0.115526 0.9090
RESID(-1) -0.177523 0.222955 -0.796228 0.4340
RESID(-2) -0.142358 0.232756 -0.611620 0.5468

R-squared 0.034714 Mean dependent var 9.00E-15

Adjusted R-squared -0.217100 S.D. dependent var 0.117665
S.E. of regression 0.129811 Akaike info criterion -1.044509
Sum squared resid 0.387572 Schwarz criterion -0.717562
Log likelihood 22.66763 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.939916
F-statistic 0.137856 Durbin-Watson stat 1.906574
Prob(F-statistic) 0.989718

AUTO-BG no issue and DW(from Double Log model) shows more

than 2 means no autocorrelation
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
Null hypothesis: Homoskedasticity

F-statistic 1.438417 Prob. F(4,25) 0.2507

Obs*R-squared 5.612665 Prob. Chi-Square(4) 0.2300
Scaled explained SS 3.537556 Prob. Chi-Square(4) 0.4722

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/22 Time: 21:34
Sample: 1991 2020
Included observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -1.068885 2.156878 -0.495571 0.6245

LCPI -0.094296 0.144290 -0.653515 0.5194
LGDP -0.022797 0.033907 -0.672345 0.5075
LLABOR 0.003832 0.139498 0.027467 0.9783
LPOP 0.103321 0.201759 0.512102 0.6131

R-squared 0.187089 Mean dependent var 0.013384

Adjusted R-squared 0.057023 S.D. dependent var 0.018340
S.E. of regression 0.017809 Akaike info criterion -5.067165
Sum squared resid 0.007929 Schwarz criterion -4.833632
Log likelihood 81.00747 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.992456
F-statistic 1.438417 Durbin-Watson stat 2.396010
Prob(F-statistic) 0.250671
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
Null hypothesis: Homoskedasticity

F-statistic 1.053315 Prob. F(10,19) 0.4403

Obs*R-squared 10.69965 Prob. Chi-Square(10) 0.3814
Scaled explained SS 6.743788 Prob. Chi-Square(10) 0.7494

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/06/22 Time: 21:35
Sample: 1991 2020
Included observations: 30
Collinear test regressors dropped from specification

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 15.42780 58.02229 0.265894 0.7932

LCPI^2 4.561800 4.823187 0.945806 0.3561
LCPI*LGDP -2.462947 3.017347 -0.816262 0.4245
LCPI*LLABOR -0.598414 5.132072 -0.116603 0.9084
LCPI*LPOP -1.263772 1.004588 -1.258000 0.2236
LCPI -3.051183 37.94071 -0.080420 0.9367
LGDP^2 0.274997 0.314075 0.875577 0.3922
LGDP*LLABOR -0.685051 0.718506 -0.953438 0.3523
LGDP*LPOP 1.138365 0.912541 1.247466 0.2274
LGDP -4.040235 12.81712 -0.315222 0.7560
LLABOR^2 0.369604 1.563059 0.236462 0.8156

R-squared 0.356655 Mean dependent var 0.013384

Adjusted R-squared 0.018053 S.D. dependent var 0.018340
S.E. of regression 0.018174 Akaike info criterion -4.901106
Sum squared resid 0.006275 Schwarz criterion -4.387334
Log likelihood 84.51659 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.736746
F-statistic 1.053315 Durbin-Watson stat 2.297739
Prob(F-statistic) 0.440264
HETERO- BPG indicate no issue and WHITE test also suggest no issue
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96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance

CUSUM-indicate it is stable