Payoff Table

Alternatives SD (.40) MD (.50) LD (.10) Maximin Maximax Laplace

S 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.0 1.8 1.3666
E 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6
B 1.4 1.1 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.6333

Regret Table

Alternatives SD (.40) MD (.50) LD (.10) WR

S 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6
E 0 0 0.7 0.7
B 0.1 0.5 0 0.5

EMV

PROBABILITIES = SD = .40 MD = .50 LD .10

EMV (5) = 1.0(.40) + 1.3 (.50) + 1·8 (10) = 1.23

EMV (ES 1.5 (.40) + 1.6 (.36)+ 1·7 (10) = 1.57

EMV (B) = 1.4 (-40) + 1.1 (.J8) + 2·9 (.10) = 1.35

EVPI SOL 1

Certainty =. Risk

(1.5x.40) + (1.6x.50) + (2.4x. 10) = 1.64 - 1·37

= 0.07

SOL 2

S= (.5x.40) + (.3 x .50) + (.6x .10) = 0.41

E= (.0×.40) + (0 × .50) + (0.7 × .10) = 0.07

B= (.1×.40) + (.5×.50) + (0× .10) = 0.29