α 0.1 α 0.2 α 0.3 α 0.

4
Week Demand Ft At-Ft Ft At-Ft Ft At-Ft Ft At-Ft
1 650
2 725 650 75 650 75 650 75 650 75
3 827 657.5 169.5 665 162 672.5 154.5 680 147
4 850 674.45 175.55 697.4 152.6 718.85 131.15 738.8 111.2
5 845 692.005 152.995 727.92 117.08 758.195 86.805 783.28 61.72
6 950 707.3045 242.6955 751.336 198.664 784.2365 165.7635 807.968 142.032
7 950 731.57405 218.42595 791.0688 158.9312 833.96555 116.03445 864.7808 85.2192
8 1000 753.41665 246.58336 822.85504 177.14496 868.77589 131.22412 898.86848 101.13152
9 1110 778.07498 331.92502 858.28403 251.71597 908.14312 201.85688 939.32109 170.67891
10 1195 811.26748 383.73252 908.62723 286.37277 968.70018 226.29982 1007.5927 187.40735
221.823 175.501 143.1815 120.1543

α 0.9
Week Demand Ft At-Ft Abs error MSE Percentage error
1 650
2 725 650 75 75 5625 10.344828
3 827 717.5 109.5 109.5 11990.25 13.240629
4 850 816.05 33.95 33.95 1152.6025 3.9941176
5 845 846.605 -1.605 1.605 2.576025 0.1899408
6 950 845.1605 104.8395 104.8395 10991.321 11.035737
7 950 939.51605 10.48395 10.48395 109.91321 1.1035737
8 1000 948.95161 51.048395 51.048395 2605.9386 5.1048395
9 1110 994.89516 115.10484 115.10484 13249.124 10.369805
10 1195 1098.4895 96.510484 96.510484 9314.2735 8.0761911

So Mean squared error

6115.67
Mean absolute error
66.45
Mean percentage error
7.05
 Best Fit
α 0.5 α 0.6 α 0.7 α 0.8 α 0.9
Ft At-Ft Ft At-Ft Ft At-Ft Ft At-Ft Ft At-Ft

650 75 650 75 650 75 650 75 650 75

687.5 139.5 695 132 702.5 124.5 710 117 717.5 109.5
757.25 92.75 774.2 75.8 789.65 60.35 803.6 46.4 816.05 33.95
803.625 41.375 819.68 25.32 831.895 13.105 840.72 4.28 846.605 -1.605
824.3125 125.6875 834.872 115.128 841.0685 108.9315 844.144 105.856 845.1605 104.8395
887.15625 62.84375 903.9488 46.0512 917.32055 32.67945 928.8288 21.1712 939.51605 10.48395
918.57813 81.421875 931.57952 68.42048 940.19617 59.803835 945.76576 54.23424 948.95161 51.048395
959.28906 150.71094 972.63181 137.36819 982.05885 127.94115 989.15315 120.84685 994.89516 115.10484
1034.6445 160.35547 1055.0527 139.94728 1071.6177 123.38235 1085.8306 109.16937 1098.4895 96.510484
103.2938 90.55946 80.63259 72.66196 66.09246