Chinese President Xi Jinping is keeping an eye on how his close ally handles the lockdown in Shanghai and its

effects on the economy. (Nikkei

montage/Reuters/AP)

CHINA UP CLOSE

Analysis: Shanghai lockdown affects Xi's plans to promote allies

City chief Li Qiang's move to Beijing likely on hold till economic impact weighed

KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer

MARCH 31, 2022 04:00 JST

Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff writer and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent
seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014
recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.

The sudden lockdown of Shanghai, China's economic powerhouse, has sent shockwaves through
Chinese political circles.

Until just days before the Monday closure, local officials had said that such an act in a city of 23
million was out of the question.
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Now that it has happened, the lockdown has sparked a torrent of speculation over how it may affect
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Communist Party's quinquennial national congress this autumn.

Much of the speculation Try

circles around
3 months forShanghai's
$9 top official Li Qiang, a close aide to President Xi
Jinping. He had been seen as a shoo-in for a seat on the Politburo Standing Committee, China's top
decision-making body.
That is because Shanghai has been a gateway to success in Chinese politics.

Police watch an entrance to a tunnel leading to Shanghai's Pudong district after a citywide lockdown was imposed.
  © Reuters

With the exception of Chen Liangyu, who fell from power over a pension scandal, former top
Shanghai officials have all been promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee in recent years.
Interestingly, this is not the case with Beijing. No former top official of the capital has become the
Communist Party's general secretary or Chinese premier.

Past personnel moves signal a rule: Nobody can run China without knowledge of the economy.

Another rule of thumb is to watch out in March during the year a party national congress convenes.

On March 24 in 2007, it was announced that Xi Jinping, then-party secretary of Zhejiang Province,
would become Shanghai party chief. After just seven months on the job, Xi was promoted to the
Politburo Standing Committee and moved to Beijing. He became China's number six, ahead of rival
Li Keqiang and in pole position to succeed President Hu Jintao.

Former President Jiang Zemin was also Shanghai's secretary when he was tapped as the
Communist Party's general secretary in 1989 following the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

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czar Zhu Rongji also rose to the position after serving in
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 Then-Shanghai Communist Party boss Xi Jinping during a meeting at the Communist Party Congress in Beijing in 2007.
  © Reuters

Li Qiang, Shanghai's current top official, is an influential member of the "Zhejiang faction,"
comprised of Xi's closest aides. The speculation was that Li's move to the central government in
Beijing was imminent and that he would perhaps assume the position of vice premier in charge of
the economy.

That would have put him in a prime position to succeed Premier Li Keqiang, who has publicly
stated that this is his last year.

There has also been speculation that if Li Qiang leaves Shanghai, Chongqing Secretary Chen Min'er
-- another member of the Zhejiang faction -- will move to Shanghai as the top official.

Xi had been preparing for the big moves through a law revision a year ago. Instead of the annual
session of the National People's Congress in March having sole authority to appoint or dismiss vice
premiers, the Standing Committee of the NPC was given the power over personnel. This means that
vice premiers could be appointed any time of the year, even when the parliament is not in session.
And since the standing committee is run by Xi's righthand man Li Zhanshu, Xi, in effect, can make
the call any time he wants to. 

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 Shanghai's top official Li Qiang, left, and Chongqing's head Chen Min'er. (Source photos by AP) 

But the Shanghai lockdown could derail Xi's carefully choreographed plans to install his allies in
key positions.

The two-stage lockdown dividing Shanghai into eastern and western areas will continue until April
5 and will keep Li Qiang busy. It would be difficult for the official responsible for the massive
lockdown to leave the city before it is lifted.

Thus the chatter about Li Qiang.

But amid the lockdown, there has been another personnel appointment that has caught the eye of
political pundits.

"Watch carefully the promotion of Li Qiang's young chief secretary," said one close observer. "The
question is how to interpret it."

Zhuge Yujie -- Li Qiang's longtime righthand man -- was appointed

Shanghai's deputy secretary one day before the lockdown was
announced.

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promotion was notable for his age. At 50, he belongs to the
post-70s
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Zhuge Yujie(Photo courtesy of Shanghai)
Li Qiang himself served as Xi's chief secretary during the latter's time
as Zhejiang's top official. Li later rose to become the province's deputy
party secretary and then governor.

Xi has also kept another former chief secretary close over the years. Ding Xuexiang, now a Politburo
member and director of the Communist Party's General Office, was Xi's chief secretary during the
president's short time in Shanghai.

Zhuge's promotion can be seen as preparatory to Li Qiang's move to Beijing.

Ding Xuexiang once served as chief secretary to Xi when the president was in Shanghai.
  © Kyodo

Li Qiang's future may hinge on how he handles the Shanghai lockdown.

At a meeting on Sunday about the coronavirus outbreak, Li stressed the importance of PCR testing
and called for implementing the spirit of Xi's important speeches and his instructions, as well as
unifying thoughts and intentions.

On the first day of the lockdown, Li also visited the shuttered Pudong district.

Shanghai's lockdown will have an immense impact on the Chinese economy, which has already
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 Police and others get tested for COVID-19 at a testing center in Shanghai on March 24. 
  © Reuters

Few people can be seen on the streets of downtown Shanghai and at Pudong International Airport.
But the city decided to implement a lockdown for fear of tarnishing the achievements of the Xi
administration and the communist government.

Will Li be promptly promoted to a higher post in Beijing after contributing to the Xi

administration's zero-virus policy?

Or will his move to Beijing be shelved, resulting in delayed personnel changes in other parts of the
country?

Whatever happens will affect personnel changes at the Communist Party's upcoming national
congress.

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