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consequences
for the
European
economy
shown by the
example of
Germany
Brexit and its consequences for the European economy shown by the example of
Germany
Inhalt
Brexit and its consequences for the European economy shown by the example of Germany.............3
1 Abstract ..............................................................................................................................................3
3 Germany ............................................................................................................................................ 8
5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 12
6 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 13
2
Brexit and its consequences for the European economy shown by the example of
Germany
The aim of this paper is to conceive the idea of “Brexit” and to investigate potential
economic issues occurring in the near future. As a citizen of the European Union, I am
and will be affected by Brexit in many ways. One of them is migration. EU citizens
interested in studying in Britain will have to apply for a visa (British Council
Deutschland, 2020). Another aspect is the economy, Brexit has had negative influences
on the German economy in the past which are unlikely to stop now (Dany-Knedlik,
Gebauer, & Schlaak, DIW Berlin, 2020). This makes Brexit an exciting subject for me as
I have a special interest in contemporary issues. Therefore, I want to examine the effects
on Europe and discuss if they are problematic or to be disregarded. The economy of a
country can be easily illustrated by numbers and figures, so it seems logical to use it to
reflect upon the effects of Brexit for all parties involved in this fashion. To archive this I
will first, explain the meaning of the word Brexit and its history by referring to the
European Union, reasons for Britain to leave the EU and the referendum. In the second
step Germany is introduced as an example of a European country with trade relations to
Britain. The next step is to make use of economic data and its interpretation to develop a
basic model on the effects for both countries. The last part will be an application of this
model to Europe in general. This will include drawing a conclusion and putting it into
perspective. Since the topic under study has by no means reached its final stage, this paper
will not refer to, or deal with, events or developments after 1st January 2021.
3
General information on Brexit
4
General information on Brexit
5
General information on Brexit
6
General information on Brexit
7
Germany
3 Germany
8
Impact and effects for both sides
9
Impact and effects for both sides
On the British side, the figures were different. They ended in 2020 with a trade deficit of
11.13 billion euros. Yet again we will assume a recovery like in2009, so in this case an
increase of 75% in the losses of 2020, so 13.5%. Which would result in a trade balance
deficit of 9.775 billion euros. As there are no agreements with the United States or China,
which account for 22.4% of the total trade in the UK, there will most likely be losses here.
Assuming both countries reduce their trading with the UK by 5% in 2021, which would
be a good scenario for the UK, the UK would lose 1.12% of its total trade volume. This
translates to 109.5 million euros, which is a relatively low number. The trading with the
EU should remain relatively stable due to the FTA and is therefore not changed in this
calculation. In a bad scenario, where China and the US decide to reduce their trade by
30% the loss would be a 6.72% decrease, with losses of 657 million euros. With the
inclusion of these factors the balance of trade deficit in 2021 can be assumed between
9.88 billion and 10,432 billion euros with an approximate 11.3% increase in best case
scenario compared with 2020 (UK Department for International Trade, 2021, own
calculations). It is important to mention that the British balance of trade has usually been
negative since 1998 (Trading economics, 2020).
10
Impact and effects for both sides
In the United Kingdom, the GDP was 2.268 trillion euros, which is a loss of 10% (Office
for National Statistics, 2021). The “Office for Budget Responsibility” of the United
Kingdome estimated a 4.5% decrease on GDP growth in 2021 because of Brexit (Office
for Buget Responsibility, 2020, p. 19). To get back to the number of 2019 would require
an 11.3% increase. The decrease because of Brexit taken into consideration, this leaves
the UK with a 6.8% increase for the year 2021 which equals a GDP of 2.422 trillion
Euros.
11
Conclusion
5 Conclusion
Great Britain has no longer been part of the EU since the 31st January 2020 but seemingly
the transition period has not been sufficient for politics and companies to prepare the real
Brexit- overall everybody lost. The settlement from 24th December tried to minimise the
collateral damage, but it seems to just have created more problems like the administrative
costs. Most damage was done in Britain. They lost a large amount of their non-EU market
and are expected to suffer huge loses in their balance of trade and GDP. But most
importantly Britain is for now as dependent on the EU economy as never before. An
obvious example for this was the French border closure on 21st December 2020 that
managed to basically blockade the street-based goods traffic out of the UK for weeks.
Adding on to that, negotiating with China and the United States will be very difficult with
the picture Britain painted of themselves. Potentially in a couple of years the economic
independence will pay off for them but as of right now it does not. Germany as one of
Britain’s biggest trade partners will suffer from the expected decrease of exports to the
UK. This will be visible in the calculated loses in GDP and potential unpredictable losses
in their balance of trade. Also, the increased difficulty trading with Britain is already
making German companies orientate away from Britain. For most EU countries the
economic effects will be less relevant overall as they are not as bound to Britain trade
wise as Germany. However, like in Germany companies will already have reduced their
effort towards the UK and think twice about investing in the UK in the future. The EU as
an economic alliance loses a lot of money. With their second biggest net contributor gone,
other countries will have to step in to continue financing the EU. Therefore, they are also
losing on an indirect basis.
In summary, in the short term nobody will benefit from Brexit. All parties involved
including the British lose, but it could have been way worse if no arrangements had been
made at all. In this one year there was more than enough time to solve the foreseeable
problems like the FTAs with the other big trading partners or stuffing holes in FTAs in
work. There is a potential chance that Brexit may pay off for the UK in the long run, but
in the foreseeable future in was at least economically an error, not only damaging the
British economy but the economy of the whole EU.
12
Appendix
6 Appendix
Dany-Knedlik, G., Gebauer, S., & Schlaak, T. (18. 10 2019). DIW Berlin. Von
https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.683919.de/diw_aktue
ll_25.pdf abgerufen
13
Appendix
Dany-Knedlik, G., Gebauer, S., & Schlaak, T. (18. 10 2020). DIW Berlin. Von
https://www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c.683932.de/publikationen/diw_aktuell/2019_00
25/falls_das_brexit-
abkommen_scheitert__wie_teuer_harter_brexit_und_verschiebung_waeren.html
abgerufen
Dany-Knedlik, G., Gebauer, S., & Schlaak, T. (31. 1 2020). DIW Berlin. Von
https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.704215.de/diw_aktue
ll_26.pdf abgerufen
Dany-Knedlik, G., Gebauer, S., & Schlaak, T. (30. 1 2020). DIW Berlin. Von
https://www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c.704233.de/publikationen/diw_aktuell/2020_00
26/nach_dem_brexit_kommt_die_uebergangsphase__deutsche_wirtschaft_leidet
_weiter_unter_unsicherheit.html abgerufen
Dietl, D. j.-E. (1983). Wörterbuch für Recht, Wirtschaft und Politik; Teil 2. München;
New York: C.H. Beck´sche Verlagsbuchhandlung; Matthew Bender &
Company, INC.
Dietl, D. j.-E. (1983). Wörterbuch für Recht, Wirtschaft und Politk; Teil 1. München;
New York: C.H.Becksche Verlagsbuchandlung; Mathew Bender & Company,
INC.
14
Appendix
European Union. (16. 6 2016). European Union- EU Presidents – who does what? .
Von https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/presidents_en abgerufen
Fichtner, F., Steffen, C. G., Hachula, M., Junker, S., Kirby, S., Michelsen, C., . . .
Warren, J. (16. 8 2016). DIW Berlin. Von
https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.540655.de/16-31-
1.pdf abgerufen
International Money Fund. (1. 1 2021). World economic outlook database. Von
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October
abgerufen
15
Appendix
Kirby, J. (31. 1 2020). A short history of the long road to Brexit. Vox. Von
https://www.vox.com/2020/1/31/21083573/brexit-news-boris-johnson-timeline-
eu-uk abgerufen
Office for budget responisbility. (1 2017). Office for budget responisbility. Von
https://obr.uk/download/fiscal-sustainability-report-january-2017/ abgerufen
Office for Buget Responsibility. (25. 11 2020). Office for Buget Responsibility. Von
https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2020/
abgerufen
17
Appendix
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Appendix
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Appendix
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Appendix
21
Appendix
UK – United Kingdom
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