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Brexit and its

consequences
for the
European
economy
shown by the
example of
Germany
Brexit and its consequences for the European economy shown by the example of
Germany

Inhalt

Brexit and its consequences for the European economy shown by the example of Germany.............3

1 Abstract ..............................................................................................................................................3

2 General information on Brexit......................................................................................................... 4

2.1 The European Union ......................................................................................................................5

2.2 The road to Brexit ......................................................................................................................... 6

2.3 Settlement reached on 24th December 2020 ..................................................................................7

3 Germany ............................................................................................................................................ 8

3.1 Economy and politics ..................................................................................................................... 8

3.2 Trade relations to Britain .............................................................................................................. 8

4 Impact and effects for both sides.................................................................................................... 9

4.1 Single market ................................................................................................................................ 9

4.2 Import and export ........................................................................................................................ 10

4.3 Gross domestic product ................................................................................................................ 11

4.4 Relations and trust ........................................................................................................................ 11

5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 12

6 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................... 13

6.1 List of literature ............................................................................................................................ 13

6.2 List of illustrations ........................................................................................................................ 19

6.3 List of abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... 22

2
Brexit and its consequences for the European economy shown by the example of
Germany

Brexit and its consequences for the European economy


shown by the example of Germany
1 Abstract

The aim of this paper is to conceive the idea of “Brexit” and to investigate potential
economic issues occurring in the near future. As a citizen of the European Union, I am
and will be affected by Brexit in many ways. One of them is migration. EU citizens
interested in studying in Britain will have to apply for a visa (British Council
Deutschland, 2020). Another aspect is the economy, Brexit has had negative influences
on the German economy in the past which are unlikely to stop now (Dany-Knedlik,
Gebauer, & Schlaak, DIW Berlin, 2020). This makes Brexit an exciting subject for me as
I have a special interest in contemporary issues. Therefore, I want to examine the effects
on Europe and discuss if they are problematic or to be disregarded. The economy of a
country can be easily illustrated by numbers and figures, so it seems logical to use it to
reflect upon the effects of Brexit for all parties involved in this fashion. To archive this I
will first, explain the meaning of the word Brexit and its history by referring to the
European Union, reasons for Britain to leave the EU and the referendum. In the second
step Germany is introduced as an example of a European country with trade relations to
Britain. The next step is to make use of economic data and its interpretation to develop a
basic model on the effects for both countries. The last part will be an application of this
model to Europe in general. This will include drawing a conclusion and putting it into
perspective. Since the topic under study has by no means reached its final stage, this paper
will not refer to, or deal with, events or developments after 1st January 2021.

3
General information on Brexit

2 General information on Brexit


The word Brexit or Brixit describes the process of Great Britain leaving the EU. It is a
neologism combining the word “Britain” and “exit” that first appeared in “The
Economist- Bagehot´s notebook on British politics” on 21st June 2012 where the
possibility of Britain leaving the EU is discussed (Tréguer, 2016). The chances of such a
scenario are described as being “higher than […] ever” (The economist, 2012). And that
is what happened on 31st January 2020 Great Britain officially left the European Union
and continued to comply with EU regulations only until 31st December 2020, the end of
the transitional period agreed upon with the EU. All this was initiated by Prime Minister
David Cameron who had promised the UK’s citizens a referendum on the United
Kingdom’s membership in the EU. The referendum was conducted in 2016. After the
voters had decided to leave, Cameron resigned from his post and left others to solve the
resulting problems (Kirby, 2020). Points of dispute were for example: the boarder to the
Republic of Ireland, fishing rights, competitive equality, access to the European single
market (Kapern, 2020), citizens’ rights and financial settlements (Cox, 2019).

4
General information on Brexit

2.1 The European Union


The European Union is an economic and political partnership of countries. Over time, the
EU developed a single European currency, abolished border controls between member
states and created a single market which makes trading in the EU a lot more beneficial to
EU member states (European Union, 2016). This helped shaping the EU into the global
trading power it is today. The EU had a GDP of 13.9 trillion euros in 2019 (Eurostat,
2021) which is 13.92% of global GDP (Statista, 2020, own calculation) and thus accounts
for a large share of global trade. Along with China and the United States, the EUis one of
the most important figures in international trading (European Union, 2021). But the EU
is also responsible for a lot of important regulations. One example is investments by
foreign countries. The member states and the EU Commission must evaluate whether the
investment poses a threat to European interests or has an impact on public order
(European Council, 2016). If the investment is classified dangerous, the member state is
not allowed to accept it. In this fashion, the EU regulates for example imports, exports,
fishing rights(European Council, 2016) or the form and size of bananas (European
Council, 2016). This can lead to conflicts of interest because some member states cannot
use their full economic potential. The member states also must pay money to basically
fund the EU. Britain was the second largest net contributor to this fund (Imöhl & Ivanov,
2021).

5
General information on Brexit

2.2 The road to Brexit


After the referendum on 23rd June 2016, when 51.89% voted in favour of leaving the EU,
the new prime minister, Theresa May, officially submitted the withdrawal request to the
EU on 29th March 2017, thus starting a two-year transition period to negotiate a
withdrawal agreement. On 19th June 2017, the negotiations started and on 14th November
2018 a draft with a withdrawal agreement was set up (CMS Legal Services EEIG/EWIV,
2021). The British parliament then had to confirm it, but on 15th January 2019 the House
of Commons decided with a distinct 432 to 202 majority not to accept the withdrawal
agreement. They confirmed the decision on 12th March 2019, 17 days before the planned
Brexit. Two days later they also voted to delay Brexit and on 27th March they decided in
two lopsided votes not to accept a No-Deal-Brexit and not to revoke Brexit either. May’s
partly revised draft is also rejected with to 344 to 286 votes (see illustration 1). Therefore,
Britain asked the EU for postponement of Brexit until 12th April 2019. This deadline was
also extended until 31st October 2019, and on 7th June Theresa May resigned from her
office of Prime Minster (Agence France-Presse, 2019). The replacement was Boris
Johnson who, to buy time, asked the Queen to suspend parliament which was ruled
unlawful two weeks later by the Supreme Court (Brinkmann, 2019). On 4th September,
the House of Commons passed a law preventing a No-Deal-Brexit on 31st October
(Agence France-Presse, 2019) and basically forced Johnson to enter into a deal. The
president of the EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and Prime Minister Johnson
eventually came to an agreement which scheduled Brexit for 31st October 2019 (BZ
Berlin, 2019). This was prevented by the House of Commons in a vote on 22nd October,
so Brexit was again postponed until 31 January 2020 (see illustration 1). Using re-
elections in December 2019 Johnson finally managed to achieve a big majority in the
House of Commons to pass the Brexit deal and on 20 December Britain was finally ready
to leave the EU (Tagesschau, 2019). It happened on 31st January 2020. At the same time
a ten-month transition period started to further negotiate the relations between Britain and
the EU. After tough negotiations, a relationship treaty was finalised on 24th December
2020 and approved by the British parliament on 30th December 2020. 1st January 2021
marks the end of negotiations with the settlement coming into effect (Auswärtiges Amt,
2021).

6
General information on Brexit

2.3 Settlement reached on 24th December 2020


The settlement of 24th December 2020 was more of an economic nature than anything
else. Britain left the EU single market and the customs union, but a sort of free trade
agreement could be reached. It includes neither customs nor trading quotas to enhance
trade between Britain and the EU (Auswärtiges Amt, 2021). The agreement does not
include any settlements on foreign politics, except the EU access to fishing grounds along
the British coastline. It does include “cooperation” in the fields of climate protection,
security questions like terrorism and transport. Northern Ireland will remain an open trade
arena with the application of both the EU single market rulings and the rules of British
customs territory (Auswärtiges Amt, 2021). Flaws in this system are, for example, the
definition of British products that are exempted from customs, because they are only
British if they are produced or refined in Britain (Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, 2021)
and the increased amounts of customs declarations which will cause administrative
problems as well as increased costs of around 400 million Euros for German companies
(Imöhl & Ivanov, 2021).This agreement does not produce a major shift in the economic
balance in Europe, it will merely cost both Britain and the EU a lot of money. It basically
keeps most of trading as it is right now. Problems will occur once any party changes basic
rules in their system, like closing boarders temporarily. It will help the German economy
in the short run to compensate for its losses, while Britain will have deal with the new
situation.

7
Germany

3 Germany

3.1 Economy and politics


Germany has the fourth biggest GDP in the world (International Money Fund, 2021), it
is also the third biggest exporter in the world 1810.93 billion dollars, which roughly adds
up to 46.8% of the GDP (World Bank, 2019). This shows Germany’s substantial
dependence on its export sector as 74% of labourers work in the tertiary sector
(Statistisches Bundesamt, 2021). Therefore, Germany is to be characterised as an
industrial nation. Germany has a huge influence on the EU. This is shown, for example,
by the fact that Germany accounted for 96 out of 751 members of the EU parliament in
the last election period (see illustration 3), which is a lot considering there are 26 other
member states. It is also represented by the current president of the European
Commission, Ursula von der Leyen (European Union, 2016). And therefore, can also

have an impact on the EU in this way.

3.2 Trade relations with Britain


In the last few years, Britain and Germany have had very extensive trade relations.
Usually, the United Kingdom was hovering around the top 5 of Germanys trade partners.
In 2020, Germanys revenue from its trade volume with the UK was more than 101 billion
euros. which accounts for a foreign trade balance surplus of 32 billion euros. This
amounts to 17.8% of Germany’s total FTB (Destatis, 2021, own calculations). That figure
alone makes Britain very important to the German economy because the winnings are
needed to compensate for other nation like the Netherlands where despite a high trade
volume Germany loses money. On the British side, Germany was the by far the biggest
importer, with 13.71% of imports coming from Germany (see illustration 4). German
companies account for 10% of all direct foreign investments in Britain, this is the second
largest share (Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammer, 2020). Looking at these numbers
it seems obvious that both nations need one another to guarantee a working foreign trade
for their respective country. The reality is that German exports to the UK went down
15.5% in 2020, which shows the orientation of German companies away from Britain
(Imöhl & Ivanov, 2021) and the United States took away the top spot in the British trade
partner ranking from Germany in 2020 (Office for Buget Responsibility, 2020).

8
Impact and effects for both sides

4 Impact and effects for both sides


An important thing to keep in mind is that the economic numbers are very low due to the
Covid-19 pandemic. They are usually far below the averages of past years, so some
increases might seem very high at first glance. I will usually assume a similar recovery
as in the global economic crisis in 2009, where economies were back at their former level
in about 12 to 18 months (Statistisches Bundesamt, 2021). This applies to most of the
calculated figures in this model.

4.1 Single market


As explained hereinbefore, the EU and therefore also Germany, and Great Britain agreed
to an FTA which does not include any major changes in the near future. For Germany this
is a good sign because they can keep up trading as before. The problem lies on the British
side. By leaving the EU they lost all their trade deals with non-EU countries. And have
yet to find an agreement negotiating with China, the United States or Australia. These are
some of the biggest trade partners to have (Edgington, 2021). This could pose a problem
as of right now every country not having an FTA with Britain is forced to follow quotas
and pay a lot more tariffs. On the other hand, the UK must comply with the quotas and
tariffs of other countries, so there will be a potential reduction of exports. This might
potentially lead to supply shortages of some goods that are not traded with the EU or other
countries that agreed to a similar FTA. The reason for that is simply the additional costs
which could make trading with the UK unprofitable for foreign companies. However, the
UK has entered into trade agreements with Japan and 63 smaller trade partners like the
Southern African Customs Union, Switzerland, or Turkey (Edgington, 2021). All in all,
what the UK needs now is time. Time to make trade deals with the big countries and sort
out their differences to get their economy back on track. This is especially important in
times of the Corona pandemic where almost all countries are suffering from economic
slumps.

9
Impact and effects for both sides

4.2 Import and export


Obviously, imports and exports are directly linked to the market access. As we can only
guess if and when FTAs or similar agreements will be made, this part may possibly
become unprecise. At the end of 2020 Germany had a balance of trade surplus of 179.47
billion euros which is significantly lower than in the past two years where it was an
average surplus of 226.37 billion euros, which amounts to a decrease of 20.8%. If we
assume a recovery comparable to that in 2009, a 13% increase compared to the crisis, and
assume the decrease to be negligible due to the FTA, we calculate a prognostic balance
of trade of 202.8 billion euros for the year 2021 (Statisische Bundesamt, 2021, own
calculations). Another important thing to note is the trend of German companies to
decrease the amount of trade with the UK in 2020 (Imöhl & Ivanov, 2021), this could
continue in 2021 and create significant economic losses.

On the British side, the figures were different. They ended in 2020 with a trade deficit of
11.13 billion euros. Yet again we will assume a recovery like in2009, so in this case an
increase of 75% in the losses of 2020, so 13.5%. Which would result in a trade balance
deficit of 9.775 billion euros. As there are no agreements with the United States or China,
which account for 22.4% of the total trade in the UK, there will most likely be losses here.
Assuming both countries reduce their trading with the UK by 5% in 2021, which would
be a good scenario for the UK, the UK would lose 1.12% of its total trade volume. This
translates to 109.5 million euros, which is a relatively low number. The trading with the
EU should remain relatively stable due to the FTA and is therefore not changed in this
calculation. In a bad scenario, where China and the US decide to reduce their trade by
30% the loss would be a 6.72% decrease, with losses of 657 million euros. With the
inclusion of these factors the balance of trade deficit in 2021 can be assumed between
9.88 billion and 10,432 billion euros with an approximate 11.3% increase in best case
scenario compared with 2020 (UK Department for International Trade, 2021, own
calculations). It is important to mention that the British balance of trade has usually been
negative since 1998 (Trading economics, 2020).

10
Impact and effects for both sides

4.3 Gross domestic product


The GDP of Germany in the year 2020 was 3.332 trillion Euros. This is a loss of 3.38%
compared to 2019. Returning to the numbers of 2019 would require an increase of 3.5%
(Statista, 2021, own calculations). The “German Institute for Economics” estimated the
reduction of GDP growth in 2021 because of economic insecurity bound to Brexit to 1.2%
(Dany-Knedlik, Gebauer, & Schlaak, DIW Berlin, 2020). This would leave us with a
2.3% increase, which amounts to a GDP of 3.40887 trillion Euros.

In the United Kingdom, the GDP was 2.268 trillion euros, which is a loss of 10% (Office
for National Statistics, 2021). The “Office for Budget Responsibility” of the United
Kingdome estimated a 4.5% decrease on GDP growth in 2021 because of Brexit (Office
for Buget Responsibility, 2020, p. 19). To get back to the number of 2019 would require
an 11.3% increase. The decrease because of Brexit taken into consideration, this leaves
the UK with a 6.8% increase for the year 2021 which equals a GDP of 2.422 trillion
Euros.

4.4 Relations and trust


It is safe to say that Brexit had and will have an impact on the relationships between the
UK the other European countries, especially those in the EU. Leaving the EU on the
assumption that Brexit will lead to more economic freedom and growth (Abbott, 2017)
even though the numbers indicated something different since 2015 (Office for Budget
Responisbility, 2017, p. 16) seems egotistic and injudicious and that is not an image you
want to have as a country that needs to construct their foreign trade structure from scratch.
Countries will most definitely keep that in mind when engaging in trade relations with
Britain in the future.

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Conclusion

5 Conclusion
Great Britain has no longer been part of the EU since the 31st January 2020 but seemingly
the transition period has not been sufficient for politics and companies to prepare the real
Brexit- overall everybody lost. The settlement from 24th December tried to minimise the
collateral damage, but it seems to just have created more problems like the administrative
costs. Most damage was done in Britain. They lost a large amount of their non-EU market
and are expected to suffer huge loses in their balance of trade and GDP. But most
importantly Britain is for now as dependent on the EU economy as never before. An
obvious example for this was the French border closure on 21st December 2020 that
managed to basically blockade the street-based goods traffic out of the UK for weeks.
Adding on to that, negotiating with China and the United States will be very difficult with
the picture Britain painted of themselves. Potentially in a couple of years the economic
independence will pay off for them but as of right now it does not. Germany as one of
Britain’s biggest trade partners will suffer from the expected decrease of exports to the
UK. This will be visible in the calculated loses in GDP and potential unpredictable losses
in their balance of trade. Also, the increased difficulty trading with Britain is already
making German companies orientate away from Britain. For most EU countries the
economic effects will be less relevant overall as they are not as bound to Britain trade
wise as Germany. However, like in Germany companies will already have reduced their
effort towards the UK and think twice about investing in the UK in the future. The EU as
an economic alliance loses a lot of money. With their second biggest net contributor gone,
other countries will have to step in to continue financing the EU. Therefore, they are also
losing on an indirect basis.

In summary, in the short term nobody will benefit from Brexit. All parties involved
including the British lose, but it could have been way worse if no arrangements had been
made at all. In this one year there was more than enough time to solve the foreseeable
problems like the FTAs with the other big trading partners or stuffing holes in FTAs in
work. There is a potential chance that Brexit may pay off for the UK in the long run, but
in the foreseeable future in was at least economically an error, not only damaging the
British economy but the economy of the whole EU.

12
Appendix

6 Appendix

6.1 List of literature


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Brinkmann, S. (24. 9 2019). Deutschlandfunk Kultur. Von


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Cox, P. (8. 11 2019). Institue of International & European Affairs. Von


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Dany-Knedlik, G., Gebauer, S., & Schlaak, T. (18. 10 2019). DIW Berlin. Von
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13
Appendix

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14
Appendix

European Union. (16. 6 2016). European Union- EU Presidents – who does what? .
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European Union. (4. 1 2021). European Union. Von https://europa.eu/european-


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Fichtner, F., Steffen, C. G., Hachula, M., Junker, S., Kirby, S., Michelsen, C., . . .
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Fratscher, M. (5. 2 2020). DIW Berlin. Von


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Fratzscher, M. (31. 1 2019). DIW Berlin. Von


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Fratzscher, M. (16. 1 2019). DIW Berlin. Von


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Imöhl, S., & Ivanov, A. (3. 3 2021). Handelsblatt. Von


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15
Appendix

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Kirby, J. (31. 1 2020). A short history of the long road to Brexit. Vox. Von
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Riegert, B. (12. 24 2020). Deuscthe Welle. Von https://www.dw.com/de/brexit-unterm-


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the-eu-in-the-inflation-adjusted-global-gross-domestic-product/ abgerufen

Statista. (7. 12 2020). Statista. Von


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bip-bruttoinlandsprodukt-weltweit/ abgerufen
16
Appendix

Statista. (2 2021). Statista. Von


https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1251/umfrage/entwicklung-des-
bruttoinlandsprodukts-seit-dem-jahr-1991/ abgerufen

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https://www.destatis.de/Europa/DE/Thema/Brexit/_inhalt.html abgerufen

Statistisches Bundesamt. (5. 1 2021). Destatis. Von


https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Konjunkturindikatoren/Lange-
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Statistisches Bundesamt. (18. 2 2021). Destatis. Von


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e-handelspartner.pdf?__blob=publicationFile abgerufen

Statistisches Bundesamt. (18. 2 2021). Destatis. Von


https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Aussenhandel/Tabellen/gesamte
ntwicklung-aussenhandel.pdf?__blob=publicationFile abgerufen

Tagesschau. (13. 12 2019). Tagesschau. Von https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/wahl-


grossbritannien-113.html abgerufen

The economist. (21. 6 2012). A Britxit looms. The economist. Von


https://www.economist.com/bagehots-notebook/2012/06/21/a-brixit-looms
abgerufen

Trading economics. (12 2020). Trading economics. Von


https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade abgerufen

Tréguer, P. (24. 8 2016). word histories. Von


https://wordhistories.net/2016/06/24/brexit/ abgerufen

UK Department for International Trade. (2 2021). UK Trade in Numbers. Von


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/atta
chment_data/file/964119/210225_Pocketbook_UK_Trade_in_Numbers_2021_
Web_Accessible.pdf abgerufen

Wagner, R. (31. 1 2020). Reuters. Von https://de.reuters.com/article/brexit-deutschland-


idDEKBN1ZU1PL abgerufen

17
Appendix

World Bank. (2019). The World Bank. Von


https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.GSR.GNFS.CD?end=2019&most_rece
nt_value_desc=true&start=2016 abgerufen

World Bank. (2019). The World Bank. Von


https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=DE&most_re
cent_value_desc=false abgerufen

18
Appendix

6.2 List of illustrations

Illustration 1: Key votes in the House of Commons on Brexit – Statista.com

19
Appendix

Illustration 2: Timeline Brexit – CMS law

20
Appendix

Illustration 3: Distribution of seats in the European Parliament by country - Statista

21
Appendix

Illustration 4: Import countries of GB in percent

6.3 List of abbreviations


EU - European Union

UK – United Kingdom

GB- Great Britain

GDP - gross domestic product

FTB - foreign trade balance

FTA – free trade agreement

22

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