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1. Decision analysis-
Decision theory is an analytic and systematic approach to the
study of decision making
Six Steps in Decision Making
1. Clearly define the problem at hand.
2. List the possible alternatives.
3. Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature.
4. List the payoff (typically profit) of each combination of alternatives and
outcomes.
5. Select one of the mathematical decision theory models.
6. Apply the model and make your decision
In decision theory, an alternative is defined as a course of action or a strategy
that the decision maker can choose
those outcomes over which the decision maker has little or no
control are called states of nature.
the payoff resulting from each possible combination of alternatives and
outcome is called conditional values.
a decision table, sometimes called a payoff table
7. Project Management- execution of different job takes specific time. There are two
methods for solving these problems, Critical and Method (CPM) and Program
Evaluation Review Technique (PERT). Both methods require the network
representation of the problem.
8. Inventory Models- Inventory control is one of the most popular techniques, which
helps managers to determines when and how much to order. The main goal is
usually to find a proper balance between the inventory holding cost and the cost
executing an order.
9. Waiting Line Models- deals with the situations where units (e.g. customers) need
to be served by a number of channels (e.g. vendors.) As the number of vendors is
limited, some of the units have to wait for the service in queue.
10. Simulation- When managerial problems become more complex, they
are often impossible (or non-effective because of spent time and cost) to be
solved using standard techniques. For this purpose, simulation approach is
advantageous and in many cases it is the only way how to manage the
problem. Simulation is a computer experimentation with a simulation model
aimed at describing and evaluating the real system’s behavior - the computer
program simulates the real system. The typical situations for successful use
of simulation are complex waiting line models and inventory models.
11. Decision Analysis- These techniques can be used to select optimal
strategies out of several decision alternatives. Managerial problems and
appropriate tools are divided, according to the kind of manager’s information,
into three classes: decisions under certainty (deterministic), decision under
risk (probabilistic) and decisions under uncertainty. We consider special
tools for this purpose: decision tables and trees.
12. Theory of games- This area is an extension of decision analysis to the
situations with two or more decision makers. Simultaneous decisions
(selected strategies) of all managers initiate an action that affects all decision
makers (players), i.e. their profit, cost, etc.