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Confidence Intervals
Confidence Intervals
Confidence Intervals
§ 6.1
Confidence Intervals
for the Mean
(Large Samples)
Point Estimate for Population μ
A point estimate is a single value estimate for a population
parameter. The most unbiased point estimate of the
population mean, , is the sample mean, x.
Example:
A random sample of 32 textbook prices (rounded to the nearest
dollar) is taken from a local college bookstore. Find a point
estimate for the population mean, .
34 34 38 45 45 45 45 54
56 65 65 66 67 67 68 74
x 74.22
79 86 87 87 87 88 90 90
94 95 96 98 98 101 110 121
Point estimate
for textbooks
•
74.22
interval estimate
1 1
(1 – c) (1 – c)
2 2
z
−zc z=0 zc
Use the Standard
Critical values Normal Table to find the
corresponding z-scores.
The remaining area in the tails is 1 – c .
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 5
Common Levels of Confidence
If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we are
90% confident that the interval contains the population
mean, μ.
0.90
0.05 0.05
z
−zc = −−z1.645
c z = 0 zc = z1.645
c
0.025 0.025
z
−zc = −
−z1.96
c z=0 zc =z1.96
c
0.005 0.005
z
−zc = −−z2.575
c z = 0 zc = z2.575
c
Example:
A random sample of 32 textbook prices is taken from a
local college bookstore. The mean of the sample is x =
74.22, the sample standard deviation is s = 23.44, and the
margin of error is E = 8.12.
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean price of
all textbooks in the bookstore.
Continued.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 11
Confidence Intervals for μ
Example continued:
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean price of
all textbooks in the bookstore.
x = 74.22 s = 23.44 E = 8.12
Left endpoint = ? Right endpoint = ?
• x =•
74.22 •
x − E = 74.22 − 8.12 x + E = 74.22 + 8.12
= 66.1 = 82.34
With 95% confidence we can say that the cost for all
textbooks in the bookstore is between $66.10 and $82.34.
zc
2
n= .
E
If is unknown, you can estimate it using s provided you
have a preliminary sample with at least 30 members.
Example:
You want to estimate the mean price of all the textbooks in
the college bookstore. How many books must be included in
your sample if you want to be 99% confident that the sample
mean is within $5 of the population mean? Continued.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 15
Sample Size
Example continued:
You want to estimate the mean price of all the textbooks in
the college bookstore. How many books must be included in
your sample if you want to be 99% confident that the sample
mean is within $5 of the population mean?
n= =
E 5
145.7 (Always round up.)
c = 0.95
t
−tc = − 2.776 tc = 2.776
We are 90% confident that the mean wait time for all
customers is between 86.9 and 103.1 seconds.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 23
Normal or t-Distribution?
Use the normal distribution with
Is n 30? Yes E = zc σ .
n
No If is unknown, use s instead.
Yes
Use the normal distribution with
Is known? Yes
E = zc σ .
n
No
pˆ = x = 450 = 0.36
n 1250
The point estimate for the proportion of US adults who
say baseball is their favorite sport to watch is 0.36, or
36%.
E = zc pq
ˆ ˆ.
n
The probability that the confidence interval contains p is c.
Example:
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the proportion of
US adults who say baseball is their favorite sport to watch.
• p̂ = •
0.36 •
p̂ − E = 0.36 − 0.022 p̂ + E = 0.36 + 0.022
= 0.338 = 0.382
With 90% confidence we can say that the proportion of all
US adults who say baseball is their favorite sport to watch
is between 33.8% and 38.2%.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 30
Finding Confidence Intervals for p
Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion
In Words In Symbols
1. Identify the sample statistics n and x.
2. Find the point estimate p̂. pˆ = x
n
3. Verify that the sampling distribution npˆ 5, nqˆ 5
can be approximated by the normal
distribution.
4. Find the critical value zc that Use the Standard
corresponds to the given level of Normal Table.
confidence.
5. Find the margin of error E. E = z c pq
ˆˆ
n
6. Find the left and right endpoints and Left endpoint: p̂ − E
form the confidence interval. Right endpoint: p̂ + E
Interval: pˆ − E p pˆ + E
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 31
Sample Size
Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error, E, the
minimum sample size n, needed to estimate p is
2
zc
n = pq
ˆˆ .
E
This formula assumes you have an estimate for p̂ and qˆ.
If not, use pˆ = 0.5 and qˆ = 0.5.
Example:
You wish to find out, with 95% confidence and within 2% of
the true population, the proportion of US adults who say
that baseball is their favorite sport to watch.
Continued.
Larson & Farber, Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 3e 32
Sample Size
Example continued:
You wish to find out, with 95% confidence and within 2% of
the true population, the proportion of US adults who say
that baseball is their favorite sport to watch.
n = 1250 x = 450 p̂ = 0.36
2 2
z
ˆ ˆ c = (0.36)(0.64)
1.96
n = pq
E 0.02
2212.8 (Always round up.)