PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE,

CONCEPTS, MODELING,
AND ANALYSIS

What is..
Maintenance
Activities to ensure that a facility, equipment system, fleet,
or other physical asset continues to perform its intended
function

Preventive Maintenance
Series of preplanned tasks performed to counteract known
causes of potential failure of those functions

Maintenance Repair
Replacement, refurbishment, or overhaul of the
components in an equipment or system to make it capable
of performing its intended function

@ 2021 by Edy Suwondo 1

 PM is the preferred, because
 It can prevent premature failure and
reduce its frequency through lubrication
and servicing
 It can reduce the severity of failure and
mitigate its consequences
 It can provide warning of an impeding or
incipient failure to allow planned repair
 It can reduce the overall cost of asset
management (reduce unplanned
interruption of production operation)

Work Distribution

Planning and Control of Maintenance System, Page 44

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 Categories of Preventive Maintenance

Planning and Control of Maintenance System, Page 45

PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE (PM)

A series of preplanned tasks performed to counteract known
causes of potential failure of the intended function of an
asset.

Will be used when a potential Will be used when the probability of

failure is detectable (has gradual failure (cdf) increases with time
part of degradation), usually has (normal distribution with a small
a normal distribution with a large deviation standard)
deviation standard

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 Planning and Control of Maintenance System, Page 48

Conditions for Applicability (Technical Feasibility) of

Time-Based Preventive Maintenance

Periodic Restoration Tasks are applicable (technically

feasible) if satisfy the following conditions:
1. There exists an identifiable age where the failure rate
increases significantly.
2. Most of the items (all items, if it has safety
consequence) survives at that age.
3. The Restoration (or replacement) tasks can restore
the item to its initial condition (initial resistance to
failure).

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 Planning and Control of Maintenance System, Page 48

Conditions for Applicability (Technical Feasibility) of

Condition-Based Preventive Maintenance (CBM)

CMB Tasks are applicable (technically feasible) when satisfy

the following conditions:
1. Possible to define potential failure.
2. Possible (easy) to detect potential failure at interval less
than the P-F Interval.
3. The P-F Interval is long enough and consistent (follow
normal distr.) in order to prevent the function failure or its
effects.
Potential failure is a detectable physical condition which
indicates that the functional failure is imminent.
P-F interval is the time interval from potential failure condition
to functional failure condition.

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 Preventive Maintenance Program

Due to the complexity of an equipment, it has a lot

of failure modes. Many maintenance tasks are
required which are consolidated into a Preventive
Maintenance Program. The maintenance tasks
are grouped (clustered) by periodicity (daily,
weekly, flight hours, cycle, A-check, C-check, D-
check, etc.)

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Planning and Control of Maintenance System, Page 50

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 Preventive Maintenance Indicators
Indicators to evaluate the comprehensiveness of
PM Program:
1. PM coverage: percentage of critical
components which have PM tasks.
2. PM compliance: percentage of PM tasks which
are on schedule
3. Work generated from PM: percentage of works
originating from PM.

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DIAGNOSTIC TECHNOLOGIES
• Vibration analysis (broadband, octave band,
narrow band)
• Oil analysis (ferrography, magnetic chip
detection, spectrography, chromatography)
• Thermography
• Ultrasonic
• Electrical Effects Monitoring (merger test)
• Penetrants

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@ 2021 by Edy Suwondo 7

 Planned Maintenance refers to maintenance work
that is performed with advanced planning,
foresight, control, and records

Planned Maintenance Characteristics:

 The maintenance strategy has been stated carefully
 The application of the strategy is planned in advance
 The work is controlled to conform the original plan.
 Data are collected, analyzed, and used to provide
direction for future maintenance policy.

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MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR

OPTIMUM PM POLICIES
• A mathematical model to optimize a preventive
maintenance interval
• Three models are known:
• Aged-Based Preventive Replacement (Type I Policy):
reschedule replacement after failure
• Constant-Interval Preventive Replacement (Type II
Policy): no rescheduling of replacement time
• Extension of Policies I and II (consists of
Replacement, Preventive Maintenance, and Failure)

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 Age Based Policy Preventive
Replacement (Type I Policy)
• Policy Type 1 is defined as:
- Perform preventive maintenance replacement after tp
hours of continuing operation without failure;
- If the system fails prior to tp hours having elapsed,
perform maintenance (replacement) at the time of failure
and reschedule the preventive maintenance after tp
operating hours.
• tp can be finit or infinite, if tp infinite then there in no
scheduled preventive maintenance (replacement)
• It is assumed that the system as good as new after
preventive maintenance (replacement) is performed.
• This policy is suited for simple equipment.
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Notations
Cp = preventive maint. cost ; Cf = breakdown maint. cost
f(t) = time to failure probability density function (p.d.f.).
F(t) = equipment or system time to failure distribution or integral of f(t)
r(t) = failure rate function
N(tp) = number of failures in the interval (0,tp); N(tp) is a random variable.
H(tp) = expected number of failures in the interval (0,tp).
R(t) = reliability or survival function.
M(tp)= expected value of the truncated distribution with p.d.f. f(t) truncated
at tp.

M(tp) =
EC(tp) = expected cost per cycle
UEC(tp) = expected cost per unit time.
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 Age Based Preventive Replacement
(Type I Policy)
Failure Failure
replacement replacement

Preventive
Preventive
replacement
replacement

tp tp

Time
0

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Model development

Expected Cycle Length = tp R(tp)+M(tp)[1-R(tp)]

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 Area under the probability distribution
(pdf) representing R(tp)

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Golden Section Method

1. Choose an allowable final tolerance level, , and assume
the initial interval where the minimum lies is [a1,b1,] = [a,b]
and let
1 = a1+(1-)(b1-a1),
1 = a1+(b1-a1),
 = 0.618.
Evaluate g(1) and g(1), let k=1
2. If bk-ak <, stop as the optimal solution is t*=(ak+bk)/2.
Otherwise, if g( k)>g( k) go to step 3, if g( k)≤g( k) go to
step 4

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 Golden Section Method (cont’d)

3. Let ak+1=k and bk+1 = bk, furthermore, let k+1=k and

let k+1=ak+1+(bk+1-ak+1). Evaluate g(k+1,), and go to
step 5.
4. Let ak+1=ak and bk+1 = k, furthermore let k+1=k
and let k+1= ak+1+(1-)(bk+1-ak+1), evaluate g( k+1),
and go to step 5.
5. Replace k by k+1 and go to step 1.

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Example
• An equipment has a time to failure probability density
function f(t) that follows a uniform distribution between
[0,10] weeks. The cost of preventive replacement is
$5 and the cost of failure replacement is $50.
Determine tp, the optimal time of preventive
replacement.
• The use of the type 1 policy is very relevant when the
failure rate increases (significantly) at certain point of
time. In other words, when the equipment has reached
its useful life, it tends to fail.

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 Calculation
• Find the probability density function, (f(t)).

• Calculate the reliability, R(t) = 1- F(T) = 1-(1/10) t

• Calculate

• Then

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Calculation (cont’d)
• Find the most optimum tp , i.e. tp which provides the
smallest UEC(tp)
• For this example, calculate UEC(tp) for the value of tp
from 1 until 10, find the smallest value of UEC(tp).
• The Golden Section method can also be used to find
optimum (tp)

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 Golden Section Method

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Golden Section Method (cont’d)

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 Golden Section Method (cont’d)

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Constant-Interval Preventive Replacement

(Type II Policy or Block Replacement)
• A Type II policy is defined as:
- Perform preventive maintenance on the system after it has
been operating a total of tp hours, regardless of the number
of intervening failures.
- In case failure happens prior to tp, minimal repair is
performed.
• Minimal repair does not change the failure rate of the system.
• Preventive replacement renews the system and it becomes as
good as new.
• This policy is suitable for complex system.
• The objective of the optimization is to minimize the expected
repair and the preventive replacement.
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 Type II Policy (cont’d)
Preventive
Failure replacement/maintenance replacement/
maintenance

0 tp
One cycle

Expected total cost: Expected number of failures:

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Example
For the previous example, find tp if the Type II Policy is used.

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 Delay Time Modeling
The delay time concept in its simplest form defines a two
stages failure process. In the first stage a defect becomes
detectable and in the second stage this detectable defect
gives rise eventually to failure of the equipment. The
period h between the time when the defect is first
detectable and the time of failure is called delay time.
It has been possible to obtain subjective estimate of the
probability density function f(h) of the delay time h. The
knowledge about f(h) enables the construction of models of
the relationship between the inspection period T and other
variables such as the expected downtime or the expected
operating cost per unit time.

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Delay Time Basic Inspection Model

Model assumptions:
1. Defects arise either fixed as breakdown repairs or
inspection repairs
2. An inspection is performed every T units of time at
cost Ci and requires d units of time d<<<T
3. Inspection is perfect
4. Defects that are identified at inspection are fixed
within inspection period
5. Time of origin of fault is assumed uniform
6. Faults arise k per unit time
7. The probability density function of delay time f(h) is
known

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 Model Development
Suppose that a fault arising within the period (0,T) has a
delay time in the interval (h, h+dh), the probability of
this event is calculated as f(h) dh. This fault will be
repaired as a breakdown repair if the fault arises in
period (0,T-h), otherwise as an inspection repair. The
probability of the fault arising before (T-h), given that a
fault will arise, is (T-h)/T (assumption 5). The probability
that a fault is repaired as a breakdown and has delay
time in (h, h+dh) is given by:
T h
f ( h)dh
T
T T h
For all possible h, P(T)  h0   f (h)dh.
 T 

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Delay Time Process

If a defect occurs before T-h it will be repaired as

breakdown repair.

Inspection h Inspection

0 T-h T

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 Downtime and Expected Cost
1
D(T )  kTdb P(T )  d 
(T  d )

Expected breakdown repair cost, Cf(T),

Cf(T) = Cf kT P(T)
Expected preventive maintenance, Cp(T),
Cp(T) = Cp kT [1 - P(T)]

 1 
UEC (T )   
 kT C f P(T )  C p 1  P(T ) C I 
 (T  d ) 

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HW 1

S.O. Duffuaa, “Planning and Control of

Maintenance Systems”
1. Solve problem 5 using MS Excel (2 digits
solution)
2. Solve problem 5 using the Golden Section
Method, with criterion of 0.5 % changes of
UEC.

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 Exponential Distribution
Mean life:

1
T m

pdf:
 m1 T
f (T )  e  T  m1 e

Reliability:
 Tm
R(T )  eT  e

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Thank You

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