Republic of the Philippines

Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

PHILIPPINE ENGINEERING AND AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COLLEGE, INC.
Marawi City

ModuleNo.1:
Module No.2:Introduction
Travel Demand Forecasting
to Highway Engineering and Traffic Analysis

TIME FRAME: 1 Week Lecture

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

A. Steps in conducting Travel Demand Forecasting

1) Forecast the target year population and economic growth of the subject area

2) Allocate land uses and socioeconomic projections to individual zones in accordance to land
availability, local zoning and related public policies

3) Specify alternative transportation plans partly based on the results of Step 1 and Step 2.

4) Calculate the capital and maintenance costs of each alternative plan

5) Apply calibrated demand forecasting models to predict the target year equilibrium flows
expected to use each alternative given the land use and socioeconomic projections of Step 2 and
the characteristics of the transportation alternative in Step 3

6) Convert equilibrium flows to direct user benefits such as savings in travel time and travel cost
attributable to the proposed plan

7) Make a comparative evaluation and selection of the “best” of the alternatives analyzed based
on the estimated costs in Step3 and benefits in Step 6.

THE SEQUENTIAL DEMAND FORECASTING

 Major Components of Travel Behaviour

-The decision to travel for a given purpose

-The Choice of Destination

-The Choice of Travel Mode( types of vehicle)

-The Choice of Route or Path

  Based on the Travel Behaviour the Sequential Demand Forecasting is performed using commonly
the FOUR-STEP FORECASTING MODEL with the ff. sub-models ( in order):

- Trip Generation and Attraction

- Trip Distribution

- Modal Split or Mode Choice

- Traffic/ Trip/ Network Assignment

THE FOUR-STEP FORECASTING PROCESS

SOME IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN CONDUCTING SEQUENTIAL DEMAND

FORECASTING

 TRIP PURPOSE

- work trips, school trips, shopping trips, social or recreational trips, business trips,
medical trips, etc.

 Zonal-based Models

- the whole study area is divided into smaller entity called ZONES.
 - the zonal attributes or explanatory variables includes; zone population, average zonal
income, average zonal vehicle ownership, etc.

- zonal-based Models also called AGGREGATE MODELS

 Household-based Models

- zonal averages tends to mask internal or intrazonal ) variability affecting accuracy of estimated
trips

i.e. two zones may have the same average income but one my composed of homogeneous
group of households wit respect to income and the other may composed of heterogeneous group
of households ( some very high and few very low in come earners).

- in this case instead of dividing the area into zones, the whole area is decomposed into
Household which is considered the smaller entity.

- the attributes or explanatory variables are; HH size, HH income, HH vehicle ownership, type of
work, age, etc.

 Trips can be classified also into Non-Home-based= neither begin or end at a residence ( not
critical as it usually occur during off-peak periods of the day) or Home-Based= begin or end at a
residence.

Productions and Attractions

ZONE I: 2 Trip-ends ZONE J: 2 Trip-ends

1 origin & 1 destination 1 origin & 1 destination
Or Or
2 productions 2 attractions
FOUR (4) GUIDELINES TO SELECT EXPLANATORY VARIABLES OR ATTRIBUTES TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE MODEL

1. Must be linearly related to the dependent variable (mathematical requirement of the model).

Example: 1) Y = AO + A1X1 + A2X2 + A3X3 + A4X4 +…..+ AnXn

2) Y = a + bx

2 Must be highly correlated with the dependent variable.

3 Must not be highly correlated between themselves.

Illustration for 1 & 2: correlation matrix below

Y X1 X2 X3 X4

Y 1.00 0.32 0.92 0.95 0.62

X1 1.00 0.25 0.19 0.03

X2 1.00 0.99 0.29

X3 1.00 0.33

X4 1.00