Problem F Smoothing Methods

Month Sales 3 month mov Avg 4 month mov Avg 3 mnth Wt mov Avg
t dt ft et2 ft et2 ft et2 C
1 8.90 - - - - - -
2 9.50 - - - - - -
3 7.90 - - - - - - 10.00
4 8.20 8.77 0.32 - - 8.60 0.16 8.00
5 8.30 8.53 0.05 8.63 0.11 8.32 0.00 6.00
6 8.90 8.13 0.59 8.48 0.18 8.20 0.49 4.00
7 9.20 8.47 0.54 8.33 0.77 8.58 0.38 2.00
8 8.90 8.80 0.01 8.65 0.06 8.95 0.00 0.00
1 2
9 - 9.00 - 8.83 - 9.00 -
MSE - 0.30 0.28 0.21
10.00
Simple Average Meth 8.73 Ch
8.00
6.00
Month Sales 3mma 4mma exp sm .2 4.00
t dt ft ft ft 2.00
1 8.90 - - Colum
0.00
2 9.50 1 2 3
3 7.90
4 8.20
5 8.30
6 8.90
7 9.20
8 8.90
9 -
 Chart Title

10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

10.00
Chart Title
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
Column B Column C
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Month Sales 3 Period Weighted moving Average alpha 0 0.50
t dt ft et2 alpha 1 0.33
1 8.90 - - alpha 2 0.17
2 9.50 - - Sum 1.00
3 7.90 - -
4 8.20 8.60 0.16
5 8.30 8.32 0.00
6 8.90 8.20 0.49
7 9.20 8.58 0.38
8 8.90 8.95 0.00
9 - 9.00

MSE - 0.21

alpha 0 alpha 1 alpha 2 f9 MSE

0.50 0.33 0.17 9.00 0.21
0.50 0.30 0.20 8.99 0.21
0.40 0.35 0.25 9.01 0.26
0.90 0.08 0.02 8.92 0.12
Month Sales ft et2 ft et2
t dt 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4
1 8.90 - - - -
2 9.50 8.90 0.36 8.90 0.36
3 7.90 9.02 1.25 9.14 1.54
4 8.20 8.80 0.36 8.64 0.20
5 8.30 8.68 0.14 8.47 0.03
6 8.90 8.60 0.09 8.40 0.25
7 9.20 8.66 0.29 8.60 0.36
8 8.90 8.77 0.02 8.84 0.00
9 8.80 8.86 choose 0.2 as it gives lesser MSE)

MSE - 0.36 0.39

2 as it gives lesser MSE)
Problem RA7
Week No. of Sales
Sr. No. Commercials Volume x= y=
X Y X - Mean Y - Mean x2 y2
1 2.0 50.0
2 5.0 57.0
3 1.0 41.0
4 3.0 54.0
5 4.0 54.0
6 1.0 38.0
7 5.0 63.0
Sum
Mean
Calculation
Correlation calculation

Regression Slope
Regression Coefficient
Coeff of Determination

Forecast for 4 Comm

 Problem RA7**
A store has used weekend television commercials, on seven occas
two months, to promote sales at its stores. The manager wants to i
relationship can be demonstrated, between the number of commer
xy sales at the store during the following week. Sample data for the 7
shown below:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
No. of Com. 2 5 1 3 4 1 5
Sales 50 57 41 54 54 38 63
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
a) Draw a Scatter Diagram. Also Calculate the Correlation Coef
b) Estimate the sales corresponding to four commercials plann
using Regression Analysis?
c) Calculate also the coefficient of Determination?

Excel Fn
mmercials, on seven occasions during the past
s. The manager wants to investigate whether a
en the number of commercials shown and the
ek. Sample data for the 7 weeks with sales are

----------------------------
5 6 7
4 1 5
54 38 63
----------------------------
culate the Correlation Coefficient.
to four commercials planned for the next week

termination?
 Year Sales x y x2 xy Regression Coefficients
T(X) S(Y) t s t2 ts Slope B2cap
1 21.6 Intrcpt B1cap
2 22.9
3 25.5
4 21.9 Forecast t=9
5 23.9 Forecast t=10
6 27.5 Forecast t=11
7 31.5
8 29.7

Excel Functions
Forecast using paste function

Trend Analysis using Scatter Diagram

Problem FM1 Smoothing Methods
Month Sales 3 month mov Avg 4 month mov Avg 3 mnth Wt mov Avg
t dt ft mod et et2 ft mod et et2 ft
1 8.90 - - - - - - -
2 9.50 - - - - - - -
3 7.90 - - - - - - -
4 8.20 8.77 0.57 0.32 - - 8.60
5 8.30 8.53 0.23 0.05 8.63 0.32 0.11 8.32
6 8.90 8.13 0.77 0.59 8.48 0.43 0.18 8.20
7 9.20 8.47 0.73 0.54 8.33 0.88 0.77 8.58
8 8.90 8.80 0.10 0.01 8.65 0.25 0.06 8.95
9 - 9.00 8.83 9.00
MAD/MSE - 0.48 0.302 0.469 0.279
3 mnth Wt mov Avg
mod et et2
- -
- -
- -
0.40 0.16
0.02 0.00
0.70 0.49
0.62 0.38
0.05 0.00

0.357 0.207
Data for Case Problem on Alumni
% of Classes Student/Faculty Alumni
School Under 20 Ratio Giving Rate
Boston College 39 13 25
Brandeis University 68 8 33
Brown University 60 8 40
California Institute of Technology 65 3 46
Carnegie Mellon University 67 10 28
Case Western Reserve Univ. 52 8 31
College of William and Mary 45 12 27
Columbia University 69 7 31
Cornell University 72 13 35
Dartmouth College 61 10 53
Duke University 68 8 45
Emory University 65 7 37
Georgetown University 54 10 29
Harvard University 73 8 46
John Hopkins University 64 9 27
Lehigh University 55 11 40
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology 65 6 44
New York University 63 13 13
Northwestern University 66 8 30
Pennsylvania State Univ. 32 19 21
Princeton University 68 5 67
Rice University 62 8 40
Stanford University 69 7 34
Tufts University 67 9 29
Tulane University 56 12 17
U. of California-Berleley 58 17 18
U. of California-Davis 32 19 7
U. of California-Irvine 42 20 9
U. of California-Los Angeles 41 18 13
U. of California-San Diego 48 19 8
U. of California-Santa Barbara 45 20 12
U. of Chicago 65 4 36
U. of Florida 31 23 19
U. of Illinois-Urbana Champaign 29 15 23
U. of Michigan-Ann Arbor 51 15 13
U. of North Carolina-Chapel Hill 40 16 26
U. of Notre Dame 53 13 49
U. of Pennsylvania 65 7 41
U. of Rochester 63 10 23
U. of Southern California 53 13 22
U. of Texas-Austin 39 21 13
U. of Virginia 44 13 28
U. of Washington 37 12 12
U. of Wisconsin-Madison 37 13 13
Vanderbuilt University 68 9 31
Wake Forest University 59 11 38
Washington University-St. Louis 73 7 33
Yale University 77 7 50