Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Speaker:
Keith Black, PhD, CFA, CAIA (Managing Director, CAIA)
Panel:
Dan Schwartz, CFA (Vice President, AQR)
Eileen Duff (Managing Partner, iCapital)
David Hemming (Senior PM, PowerShares by Invesco)
ABOUT CFA ORLANDO
cfaorlando.org
@CFASocietyOrlando
@CFAOrlandoFL
GOLD SILVER
GOLD SILVER
30.00
25.00
S&P 500 P/E Ratio
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
16
14
12
10
Yield
-2
Global Invested Alternative Assets Portfolio 8.3% 9.3% 6.3% 6.9% -21.9%
US 40% Stocks/40% Bonds/20% Portfolio 8.9% 8.4% 6.3% 7.3% -21.9%
Global 40% Stocks/40% Bonds/20% Portfolio 8.2% 6.5% 4.6% 8.8% -25.1%
Source: CAIA and Bloomberg. Quarterly returns. Annualized volatility and max draw-down are from December 2006 – September 2017.
Nearly three-fourths of
Public Pensions have
reduced their investment
return assumption since
fiscal year 2010, resulting in
a decline in the average
return assumption from 7.9%
to 7.5%.
Traditional Alternative
Investments Investments
U.S. Equity $21,100 Private Equity $4,200
Other Developed Market Equity $15,100 Hedge Funds $3,000
Emerging and Frontier Market Equity $4,100 Real Estate Equity $6,700
Infrastructure, Farmland, Timberland,
Emerging Market Debt $3,000 $620
and Private Energy
High Yield Bonds and Bank Loans $3,200 Commodity swaps, ETPs and MTNs $230
Dollar Bonds $19,300
Real Estate Debt $6,000
Other Bonds $21,100
Cash $5,100
Total (in $billions) $98,000 Total $14,750
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Real Estate Hedge Funds Private Equity + Venture Natural Resources
Capital
100%
70%
35.3%
40.0%
60%
41.0% 37.6%
50%
40%
30%
48.3%
20% 43.8%
33.3% 34.8%
10%
0%
2002 2007 2012 2014
Cash and Fixed Income Equities Private Markets
Source: “How do Sovereign Wealth Funds Invest? A Glance at SWF Asset Allocation,” E. Hentov, State Street Global Advisors, December 2015
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
11.0% 11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.3%
7.9%
8.0% 7.4%
6.3% 6.2%
5.8% 6.0%
6.0% 5.4%
4.0% 3.5%
3.2%
2.5%
2.0%
N/A
0.0%
Private Equity Hedge Funds Real Estate Infrastructure
Private Pensions Public Pensions Sovereign Wealth Funds Endowments and Foundations
Performance 70%
Fees 65%
Governance 21%
Transparency 19%
Regulation 19%
Pricing/Valuations 17%
Interest Rates 3%
$3,500
$3,210.7
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
($500)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Estimated Assets Estimated Asset Flow
Source: HFR® Global Hedge Fund Industry Report – Fourth Quarter 2017 | Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. | www.HedgeFundResearch.com
500 €
456.8 €
450 €
400 €
350 €
AUM (MioEur)
300 €
250 €
200 €
150 €
100 €
50 €
0€
$500
$450
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real estate-linked Nontraditional bond Bear Market Commodity Currency
Equity Market Neutral Long/Short Equity Managed Futures Multialternative
Source: HFR® Global Hedge Fund Industry Report – Third Quarter 2017 | Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. | www.HedgeFundResearch.com
State of Alternative Investment – 26
Estimated Number of Funds: HF vs. FoF
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FoF HF
Source: HFR® Global Hedge Fund Industry Report – Fourth Quarter 2017 | Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. | www.HedgeFundResearch.com
Inflows
22.00%
Inflows
47.18%
Outflows
52.82%
Outflows
78.00%
Source: HFR® Global Hedge Fund Industry Report – Fourth Quarter 2017 | Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. | www.HedgeFundResearch.com
13.70%
22.05%
46.11%
7.46%
10.77%
68.86%
15.51%
< $100 Million $100 to $250 Million $250 to $500 Million < $100 Million $100 to $250 Million $250 to $500 Million
$500M to $1 Billion $1to $5 Billion > $5 Billion $500M to $1 Billion $1to $5 Billion > $5 Billion
Source: HFR® Global Hedge Fund Industry Report – Fourth Quarter 2017 | Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. | www.HedgeFundResearch.com
0.90
$1.00
0.30
0.20
$0.50
0.10
0.00 $0.00
6,000
5,000 4,925
4,582
4,268
Assets under Management ($bn)
3,944
4,000 3,805
3,288
3,038
3,000
2,758
2,456
2,238 2,258
2,000
1,673
1,215
1,000
0
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Jun-17
Private Equity Private Debt Real Estate Infrastructure Natural Resources
2,000
1,800
181
1,600
160
1,400
249
Dry Powder ($bn)
1,200
234
1,000
800
600
1,004
400
200
0
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Private Equity Private Debt Real Estate Infrastructure Natural Resources
3,500
3,000
2,829
2,582
2,500 2,388
Assets under Management ($bn)
2,242
2,189
2,000 1,947
1,807
1,733
1,586
1,477
1,500 1,430
1,162
1,000 888
713
663
582 594 598
500
0
Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Jun-17
Dry Powder ($bn) Unrealized Value ($bn)
1200
1000
954
838
800
754
Dry Powder ($bn)
388
400
325 311
307 291
256
200
0
Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Buyout Venture Capital Growth Other
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017
-100
-200
Capital Called up ($bn) Capital Distributed ($bn) Net Cash Flow ($bn)
1.30
1.20
1.10
PME Value (X)
1.00
KS PME Using Russell 2000 TR (X)
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Vintage Year
14,000 200
13,019
182 180
12,015 11,944
12,000
10,980 11,145
160
9,920 148
10,000 143
140
6,000 5,506
5,308 5,431 80
62 60
4,000 58 58
50
45 46
40
37
2,000
20
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
No. of Deals Aggregate Deal Value ($bn)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
No. of Deals
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
North America Europe Greater China India Israel Other
200
180
160
140
120
No. of Deals
100
80
60
40
20
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
North America Europe Greater China India Israel Other
250
200
1
5
6
1
4
6
1
5 Water
0 5
150 4
7
1 Timberland
5
8
Metals & Mining
0
4
100 4 163 Energy
1
4 152
2
0
2 0
2 0 135 Diversified
2 1 3
2 123
0
1
2 Natural Resources
111
Agriculture/
91 Farmland
50 0
1 78
63 73 70 70
40
11 11 11 10
8 5 9
7 9 6 8 7 9 8 10 8
0 1 2 3 2 3 3 5 6
120
112
100
80
67
60 58
54
40
27
22
20 17
0
North America Europe Asia Rest of World
No. of Funds Raising Aggregate Capital Targeted ($bn)
Sectors that Investors View as Presenting the Best Opportunities, 2016 vs.
2017
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Agriculture/ Conventional Renewable Metals & Timberland Water
Farmland Energy Energy Mining
12/1/2016 12/1/2017
Investor Views on the Macroeconomic Factors that Had the Biggest Impact
on Their Natural Resources Portfolios in 2017 vs. Predictions for 2018
37%
Commodity Price Movements
49%
11%
Geopolitical Landscape
10%
11%
Possibility of Interest Rate Rises
7%
9%
Low Interest Rates
10%
7%
Currency Market Movements
8%
7%
Unwinding of Central Bank Balance Sheets
0%
6%
US Trade Policy
5%
6%
US Domestic Policy
7%
4%
Equity Market Movements
3%
(0.80)
(0.60)
(0.40)
(0.20)
1/1/1994
7/1/1994
1/1/1995
7/1/1995
1/1/1996
7/1/1996
1/1/1997
7/1/1997
1/1/2002
7/1/2002
1/1/2003
7/1/2003
S&P 500
1/1/2004
7/1/2004
1/1/2005
Bloomberg Commodity
1/1/2009
36 Month Rolling Correlation to CPI
7/1/2009
1/1/2010
7/1/2010
1/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2017
7/1/2017
1/1/2018
Inflation Betas
“Deflating Inflation: Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio”, Bernstein Global Wealth Mgmt, 2010
Stocks Commodities
Gorton/Rouwenhorst, “Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures”, Financial Analysts Journal, 2006
600
Assets Under Management ($bn)
500
411
400
300
200
227
100
0
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Jun-17
Source: Preqin
250
200
150
100
50
0
Direct Lending Distressed Debt Mezzanine Special Situations Venture Debt
Dry Powder ($bn) Unrealized Value ($bn)
Source: Preqin
Venture Debt
70%
Special Situations
Fund of Funds
40% Mezzanine
• Distressed Debt: 7.3%
30%
Distressed Debt
• Direct Lending: 7.5% 20%
0%
No. of Funds Raising Aggregate Capital Targeted
120 60%
100 50%
88
82
80 40%
60 30% 62%
58% 57%
42 44
40 31 20%
20 11 10%
8
0 0%
North America Europe Asia Rest of World Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
No. of Funds Raising Aggregate Capital Targeted ($bn) North America Europe Asia Rest of World
Source: Preqin
600
535 530
500 476 477 473
447
423 432
400 388
Dry Powder ($bn)
360
300
215
190 196 196
200 176
131 132
111 104 116
100
0
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Mar-17
Private Debt Buyout
Source: Preqin
Valuations 59%
Regulation 36%
Performance 20%
Fundraising 20%
450
400
350
Assets under Management ($bn)
300
268
238
250
216
200 190
165
94
100
51 62
34
148 150
0
12/31/2007 12/31/2008 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 6/1/2017
Dry Powder ($bn) Unrealized Value ($bn)
Core 47%
Opportunistic 36%
Core-Plus 36%
Value Added 28%
Fund of Funds 14%
Debt 12%
Secondaries 9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Proportion of Respondents
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
No. of Funds Already in Market No. of Funds Launched No. of Funds Liquidated
Valuations 62%
Performance 24%
Fundraising 19%
Regulation 16%
Source: Preqin Fund Manager Survey, November 2017
0
100
150
200
250
50
12/1/2007
3/1/2008
6/1/2008
9/1/2008
Source: Preqin Real Estate Online
PrEQIn Real Estate
6/1/2009
9/1/2009
12/1/2009
3/1/2010
6/1/2010
9/1/2010
12/1/2010
3/1/2011
PrEQIn Infrastructure
6/1/2013
9/1/2013
12/1/2013
3/1/2014
6/1/2014
9/1/2014
12/1/2014
3/1/2015
PrEQIn Private Debt
6/1/2015
9/1/2015
12/1/2015
3/1/2016
6/1/2016
9/1/2016
MSCI US REIT
12/1/2016
3/1/2017
6/1/2017
Performance: PrEQin Index by Asset Class
Real Estate: Public Market Equivalent (PME)
1.3
If PME value (X) is >1, private
real estate has outperformed
the public market
1.2
1.1
PME Value (X)
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
KS PME Using MSCI US REIT KS PME Using S&P 500 TR
Source: Preqin Real Estate Online, All Regions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1/1/2001
5/1/2001
9/1/2001
1/1/2002
5/1/2002
9/1/2002
1/1/2003
5/1/2003
9/1/2003
US 10 Year Yield
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
9/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
US Average Cap Rate vs. US 10 Year Yield
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
Closed-End Private Real Estate AUM
900
800
700
Assets under Management ($bn)
600
575 565
500 542
555
504
400
395 456
300 297
243 229 216
200 144
92
228 238 245
100 201 195
68 165 169 176 164
58 130 150 136
42 39 96
43
36 38 38 54
0 20
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
12/1/2007 12/1/2008 12/1/2009 12/1/2010 12/1/2011 12/1/2012 12/1/2013 12/1/2014 12/1/2015 12/1/2016 12/1/2017
Debt Core Core-Plus Value Added Opportunistic Distressed
Commodities 39%
0 18 35 53 70
Americas
32%
Asia-Pacific
55%
Europe, Middle-East, Africa
13%
10,000
9,000
8,000
6,000
5,700
4,000
3,265
2,000
561
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Core Concepts
Professional Standards & Ethics
Introduction to Alternative
Investments
Real Assets
Hedge Funds
Private Equity
Structured Products
Risk & Portfolio Management
Level II Curriculum – Third Edition
Approximate Exam
Level I Topic
Weight
Level I Level II
Section 1: 100 questions / 120 minutes Section 1: 100 questions / 120 minutes
Section 2: 100 questions / 120 minutes Section 2: 3 essays / 120 minutes
Visit CAIA.org/preparing
Fees
90%
70% Level I
70% 68%
67% 66% 66% 66% 67% 66% Level II
63%
61% 60%
59% 59%
57%
50%
CAIA Charter
Academic Partnerships - Americas
Academic Partnerships - EMEA
Cambridge APG
HSBC Blackrock U.S. SEC
Associates
Citi Goldman Sachs MAS Singapore Teacher Retirement
Credit Suisse New England J.P. Morgan SFC Hong Kong System of Texas
Pension Consultants
UBS Morgan Stanley FCA UK Chicago Teachers
Mercer
Barclays Capital State Street CIMA Cayman Ontario Teachers
Willis Towers Watson CalPERS
Deutsche Bank
Harvard
Management Co.
CAIA is Preferred
Early Regular
Level I Exam
Registration Registration Sept 3 – 14, 2018
Apr 2 – May 14, 2018 May 15 – Aug 6, 2018
Level II Exam
Sept 17 – 28, 2018
Global Business Development Contacts
www.caia.org
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS SUMMIT
MAY 7TH 2018
Speaker:
Keith Black, PhD, CFA, CAIA (Managing Director, CAIA)
Panel:
Dan Schwartz, CFA (Vice President, AQR)
Eileen Duff (Managing Partner, iCapital)
David Hemming (Senior PM, PowerShares by Invesco)