V

p
2 , 0 0 5
, 9 9 8
N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f E c o n o m i c
I n c .
J u s t e r ,


e x p e r i m e n t


p . t h u s .





' 1
M A T E R I A L
B Y P U B L ! S } - $ ! R . .

B u r e a u o f E c o f i o m i c R e s e a r c h , I n c .
J u s t e r ,






O c c a s i o n a l





.
- . , .
M A T E R I A L S U B M I T T E D B Y P U B L I S H E R .


















































B r a d s t r e e t ,





























































































e a c h

T h i s

E x t e n s i v e

S e e

E v i d e n t l y ,

4 .




p
t h e a n d

T h e













7

T h e

I ' c '


Q ' f ( Q )


f

1 ( Q )

J u

T h e . 5

T h e

C O N S U M E R B U Y I N G I N T E N T I O N S A N D P U R C H A S E P R O B A B I L I T Y
c h a s e
r a t e s .
U n l e s s n o n i n t e n d e r s ' p u r c h a s e s
a r e
t y p i c a l l y
a c o n s e q u e n c e
o f
u n -
f o r e s e e n c h a n g e s i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s , a n d h e n c e n o n i n t e n d e r s w h o
s u b s e q u e n t l y
p u r c h a s e r e a l l y h a d
z e r o
p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t i e s
a t
t h e t i m e
o f t h e
s u r v e y
( w h i c h I f i n d h a r d
t o
b e l i e v e ) , t h e i n a b i l i t y o f i n t e n t i o n s
s u r v e y s
t o
m e a s u r e
c h a n g e s i n
m e a n
p r o b a b i l i t y
a m o n g
n o n i n t e n d e r s
m u s t
b e
p r e s u m e d t o a c c o u n t
i n
s o m e
p a r t
f o r t h e u n i m p r e s s i v e f o r e c a s t i n g
r e c o r d o f t h e s e s u r v e y s . ' 0 T h u s
t h e
m o s t
i m p o r t a n t p o t e n t i a l g a i n f r o m
a s u r v e y
o f
p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t i e s
i s
l i k e l y
t o
b e
a n
e s t i m a t e o f t h e c h a n g e
o v e r
t i m e i n
m e a n
p r o b a b i l i t y
a m o n g
n o n i n t e n d e r s .
T h e ' o b j e c t i v e s o f
a
p r o b a b i l i t y
s u r v e y a r e ,
i n p r i n c i p l e , q u i t e s t r a i g h t f o r -
w a r d . . A n u n b i a s e d e s t i m a t e o f t h e f u t u r e p u r c h a s e
r a t e
i s r e q u i r e d , h e n c e t h e
s u r v e y s h o u l d y i e l d
a n
e s t i m a t e o f
m e a n
p r o b a b i l i t y w h i c h i s
o n a v e r a g e
e q u a l
t o t h e o b s e r v e d p u r c h a s e r a t e . W h i l e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s i s
n o t
k n o w n , t h e r e i s
a
p r e s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e
t r u e
d i s t r i b u t i o n i s b o t h c o n t i n u o u s
a n d r e l a t i v e l y s m o o t h e . g . , i t w o u l d b e s u r p r i s i n g i f t h e r e
w e r e
s h a r p a n d i r -
r e g u l a r j u m p s f r o m
o n e
p r o b a b i l i t y l e v e l
t o
t h e
n e x t .
W h e t h e r
a s u r v e y c a n
b e
d e s i g n e d
t o
y i e l d u n b i a s e d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e
t r u e
d i s t r i b u t i o n ,
o r
w h e t h e r
a n y
o p e r a t i o n a l
s u r v e y
w i l l
i n e v i t a b l y y i e l d
a
m i x t u r e
o f t r u e p r o b a b i l i t i e s , w i s h f u l
t h i n k i n g ,
a n d u n r e a s o n a b l y ' p e s s i m i s t i c a p p r a i s a l ,
c a n
o n l y b e d e t e r m i n e d
e m p i r i c a l l y . "
E v e n i f
a s u r v e y
o f p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t i e s y i e l d s
a n
e s t i m a t e o f t h e
t r u e
d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e x - a n t e
p r o b a b i l i t i e s ,
t h e
m e a n
o f
t h i s
d i s t r i b u t i o n , w h i l e
a n
u n b i a s e d e s t i m a t e
o f
t h e
f u t u r e p u r c h a s e r a t e ,
w i l l
n o t n e c e s s a r i l y c o n s t i t u t e
a n
a c c u r a t e f o r e c a s t . I f i m p o r t a n t a n d u n f o r e s e e n e v e n t s
o c c u r
d u r i n g t h e f o r e -
c a s t
p e r i o d ,
a n d i f t h e s e e v e n t s h a v e
a
s y s t e m a t i c r a t h e r t h a n
a
r a n d o m i n -
f l u e n c e
o n
b e h a v i o r ,
a s u r v e y
o f p u r c h a s e
p r o b a b i l i t i e s
w i l l n o t p r e d i c t
a c c u r -
a t e l y b y i t s e l f
n o r
w i l l
a n y
o t h e r e x - a n t e
s u r v e y .
T h e
f o r e c a s t i n g p r o b l e m t h e n
b e c o m e s
o n e
o f t r y i n g
t o c o n s t r u c t
a ,
m o d e l w h i c h i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e p r o s p e c t i v e
i n f l u e n c e
o n
p u r c h a s e .
r a t e s
. o f :
p r e s e n t l y '
u n f o r e s e e n
, o r
i m p e r f e c t l y f o r e s e e n
e v e n t s ,
a n d t h e f o r e c a s t b e c o m e s e x p l i c i t l y c o n t i n g e n t
o n
t h e s e
e v e n t s .
I n
s u m ,
t h e
e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t
a s u r v e y
o f
e x p l i c i t p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t i e s
i s w o r t h s e r i o u s i n v e s t i g a t i o n
a s a
p o t e n t i a l l y s u p e r i o r
s o u r c e
f i n f o r m a t i o n
f o r p r e d i c t i n g a n d e x p l a i n i n g
c o n s u m e r
p u r c h a s e b e h a v i o r . A l t h o u g h t h e r e
m a y ,
a n d p r o b a b l y w i l l , b e b i a s e s i n
a n y m e a s u r e
o f p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t y o b -
t a i n e d
f r o t h
' s u r v e y s , t h e r e n e i t h e r e m p i r i c a l
n o r a
' p r i o r i e v i d e n c e t o s u g g e s t
t h e d i r e c t i o n
o r
t h e e x t e n t o f b i a s .
.
'
.
.
'
' ' '
8 . C R I T E R I A ' T O M E A S U R E T H E G A I N I N A C C U R A C Y
B e f o r e e x a m i n i n g t h e e v i d e n c e , i t w i l l b e u s e f u l
t o s e t o u t
t h e a p p r o p r i a t e
t e s t s
f o r d e t e r m i n i n g w h e t h e r
o r
n o t
a
p r o b a b i l i t y
s u r v e y
r e p r e s e n t s
a
s i g -
n i f i c a t
i m p r o v e m e n t
o v e r a n
i n t e n t i o n s
s u r v e y .
T h e o n l y r e a l l y c o n c l u s i v e
t e s t
r e q u i r e s t i m e - s e r i e s , e v i d e n c e : D o e s
a
p r o b a b i l i t y
s u r v e y
e x p l a i n s i g n i f i -
1 0 M o s t i n t e n t i o n s
s u r v e y s
d i v i d e t h e h i g h p r o b a b i l i t y r e g i o n o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t o s e v e r a l
g r o u p s
w i t h
m o r e
o r
l e s s h o n i o g e n e o u s p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t i e s d e f i n i t e i n t e n d e r s , p r o b a b l e i n t e n d e r s , a n d
s o
f o r t h . T h u s c h a n g e s i n t h e
m e a n
v a l u e o l t h e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n a b o v e t h e n o n i n t e n d e r c u t o f f p o i n t
m a y
b e e s t i m a t e d w i t h r e a s o n a b l e
a c c u r a c y
b y c h a n g e s
i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f
d e f i n i t e ,
p r o b a b l e ,
a n d o t h e r i n t e n d e r s .
U
B y
t r u e p r o b a b i l i t i e s I
m e a n
t h e
p r o b a b i l i t i e s
t h a t w o u l d
b e e s t i m a t e d b y
a
h i g h l y q u a l i f i e d o b j e c t i v e o b s e r v e r
w h o l l y f a m i l i a r w i t h a l l o f t h e d a t a r e l e v a n t t o t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s p u r c h a s e d e c i s i o n . I v i e w t h e p r o b a b i l i t y
j u d g m e n t s
o b t a i n e d f r o m
a
h o u s e h o l d
s u r v e y a s
e s t i m a t e s o f t h e s e t r u e p r o b a b i l i t i e s .
9
C O N S U M E R
B U Y I N G I N T E N T I O N S A N D P U R C H A S E
P R O B A B I L I T Y
F r e q u e n c y o f
h o u s e h o l d s ,
n
I n v a r i a n t
C u t - o f f
B .
V a r i a b l e C u t - o f f
r
0 . 5
S u b j e c t i v e p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t y , 0
1 . 0
F I G . 1 . I l l u s t r a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f p u r c h a s e
p r o b a b i l i t i e s .
c a n t l y
m o r e
o f t h e t i m e - s e r i e s v a r i a n c e
i n p u r c h a s e s t h a n
a n
i n t e n t i o n s
s u r v e y ,
h o l d i n g u n f o r e s e e n e v e n t s
c o n s t a n t ? H o w e v e r , t i m e - s e r i e s e v i d e n c e
c a n n o t
b e
u s e d
t o
m a k e s e n s i b l e d e c i s i o n s b e c a u s e t i m e i t s e l f i s n o t
a
f r e e g o o d . I t
w o u l d
b e
a t
l e a s t f i v e
y e a r s , m o r e
l i k e l y
t e n ,
a n d p o s s i b l y n o t l e s s t h a n t w e n t y b e f o r e
e n o u g h e v i d e n c e c o u l d b e a c c u m u l a t e d
t o w a r r a n t
a
s a t i s f a c t o r y j u d g m e n t
a b o u t r e l a t i v e
a c c u r a c y .
A l e s s c o n c l u s i v e , b u t i n
m y
j u d g m e n t s a t i s f a c t o r y , b a s i s f o r e v a l u a t i o n i s
a n a l y s i s o f c r o s s - s e c t i o n r e s u l t s . I f f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y
s u r v e y
y i e l d s
a
j u d g m e n t
a b o u t p u r c h a s e p r o s p e c t s
t h a t
i s
e i t h e r
a s
a c c u r a t e
o r m o r e
a c c u r a t e t h a n t h a t y i e l d e d b y
a n
i n t e n t i o n s
s u r v e y ,
i t m u s t a l s o b e t r u e t h a t
t h e
p r o b a b i l i t y
s u r v e y
w i l l b e
a m o r e
a c c u r a t e
p r e d i c t o r o f t i m e - s e r i e s m o v e m e n t s
i i i p u r c h a s e
r a t e s .
I f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y
s u r v e y
i s
m o r e
a c c u r a t e
f o r
m o s t
h o u s e -
h o l d s b u t l e s s
a c c u r a t e
f o r
s o m e ,
i t i s l i k e l y
t o
b e
a
b e t t e r t i m e - s e r i e s p r e d i c t o r
t h a n i n t e n t i o n s ,
a l t h o u g h i t i s p o s s i b l e
t o c o n c e i v e
o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s i n w h i c h
i t w o u l d b e
w o r s e .
F o r e x a m p l e , p u r c h a s e p r o b a b i l i t y m i g h t b e
a w o r s e
p r e d i c -
1 0
n
f ( Q )
C f
i - p = f
f ( Q ) 6 Q
0
s x r
n
=
f ( Q )
i - p
p
0
x
CONSUMER BUYING INTENTIONS AND PURCHASE PROBABILITY
tor of cross-section differences linked to cyclically variable factors ( e.g., op-
timism) but a better predictor of differences linked to cyclically stable factors
( e.g., the siz e of durable goods stocks) . In that case, the probability variable
might provide better cross-section predictions but worse time-series predictions
than intentions. I can see no reason to suppose that this uniq ue combination of
circumstances exists. Moreover, if cross-section differences are not used as the
basis for gauging the adeq uacy of competitive survey designs, the only real
alternative is reliance on intuition or personal.judgment: as noted earlier, re-
serving decision until definitive time-series results become available is tant-
amount to avoiding the decision altogether.' 2
The characteristics of the cross-section data yielded by intentions surveys
are well known: ( 1) intender purchase rates are always higher than those of
nonintenders, but never approach unity for any intender classification; ( 2 ) the
smaller the proportioa of households classed as intenders, the higher the pur-
chase rates of both intenders and nonintenders and the smaller the proportion
of total purchases made by intenders; ( 3 ) the vast majority of households ( from
7 0 to 9 9 per cent, depending on the commodity and the survey q uestion) are
always classified as nonintenders; ( 4 ) typically, a majority of actual purchases
are made by households classified as nonintenders. These characteristics can be
thought of as reflecting the fact that intenders have a higher mean purchase
probability than nonintenders, that " definite" or " six-month" intenders have a
higher mean probability than " probable" or " twelve-month" intenders, that
for most products the great majority of households have purchase probabilities
below 0.5 , that nonintenders have a mean probability higher than z ero, and
that there is a continuous distribution of probabilities within any specified class
of intenders or among nonintenders.
A survey of explicit purchase probabilities, if it is to represent an improve-
ment over an intentions survey, must then be able to distinguish households
with ex-anteprobabilities of z ero from those with probabilities that are low but
greater than z ero, and to reduce the variation in ex-ante probability within the
several intender classes by facilitating the construction of more homogeneous
classifications. And if the probability responses are unbiased estimates of the
true but unobservable probabilities in the population, the mean of the distribu-
tion should on average be eq ual to the purchase rate.
If these objectives were realiz ed, we would find that ( 1) , fewer households re-
port z ero purchase probabilities than now report the absense of intentions to
buy; ( 2 ) the observed purchase rate among z ero-probability households is less
than the purchase rate among nonintenders, and the observed purchase rate
among households in the highest probability classification is greater than the
purchase rate among any class of intenders; ( 3 ) the proportion of total pur-
chases accounted for by z ero-probability households is less than the proportion
12
W hether and under what circumstances cross-section evidence yields valid inferences about behavior over
time is not susceptible to easy generaliz ation. This problem has a venerable history, probably dating from the time
when it was first observed that the rising marginal propensity to save found in cross sections did not correspond to
the constant marginal propensity found in time series. Results obtained in a recent empirical study ( F. Gerard
Adams, " Prediction W ith Consumer Attitudes: The Time Series Cross Section Paradox," Review of Economics and
Statistics November 19 6 5 ) , using data from the Michigan surveys of consumer attitudes, suggest that cross-section
differences in attitudes may not measure the same type of phenomena as time-series differences. Despite the difficul-
ties, I maintain that cross-section evidence will yield valid inferences about time-series behavior for the problem
investigated in this paper.
CONSUMER BUYING INTENTIONS AND PURCHASE PROBABILITY
accounted for by nonintenders ( and in fact that all such purchases should be ex-
plainable by unforeseen changes in household circumstances) ; and ( 4 ) the cross-
section correlation between purchase probability and actual purchases is higher
than that between intentions to buy and actual purchases. Additional tests in-
volving the influence of attitudes and expectations on purchases, holding either
buying intentions or purchase probability constant, are discussed below.
6 . EMPIRICAL EV IDENCE
I am aware of only three attempts to measure consumer purchase probabil-
ities by means of surveys. One of these was an apparently unsuccessful experi-
ment incorporated into a survey whose main focus was on consumer savings
and asset holdings ( Savings Study experiment) .' 3 The second was a pilot test
predecessor of the experiment reported in this paper, and was conducted in
November 19 6 3 at the U. S. Bureau of the Census on a nonrandom sample of
consumers from a Detroit suburb ( Detroit experiment) . The third study ( Q SI
experiment) , also conducted at the Census Bureau, was based on a randOm
sample drawn from the 16 ,000-odd households included in the regular Q uarterly
Survey of Intentions in J uly 19 6 4 . All of these experiments use a forecast period
of six months in which to contrast observed purchases with ex-ante purchase
probability, although the Q SI experiment will eventually have twelve months'
purchase data as well..
Savings Experiment . .
T he Savings Study experiment ( 9 7 households, high-income loading)
suggests that the typical consumer can really distinguish only three classes Of
purchase probabilities, and seems to indicate that a probability survey does nOt
provide any information not already obtained by the standard intentions sur-
veys. This experiment, however, seems to me an intentions survey with a pre-
coded response scale, not a survey of purchase probabilities. Respondents were
not asked to indicate the probability that they would buy, but rather what kind
of plans they had certain, none, fifty-fifty, or anything in' between. Specific-'
ally, they were asked whether they had any plans to buy a list of products be-
tween J une and the end of the year, and theh' handed a flash ' card labeled'
" Plan-o-meter." The card contained a 10-through-0 scale with oppo-
site 10, " fifty-fifty" opposite 5 , and " no plans at all" opposite 0. Thus respond-
ents lacking something called a " plan" would presumably have answered z ero
defined as no plans at of the level of their purchase
The distribution of Savings Study experiment resp6 nses is trimodal, with
peaks where the adjectives are provided. The proportion of z ero responses ( " no
plans at all" ) seems to be abOut the same as what would typically be observed
in a comparable sample for a buying intentiQ ns q uestion with a plan-
' 3 R. Ferber and R. Piskic, ' Subjective Probabilities and Buying intentions," Review of Economics and & atis-
ticS, August 19 6 5 , pp. 3 2 2 5 . Other experimental evidence using a precoded scale' is discussed in W arren Bilkey, " A
Physchological Approach to Consumer Behavior Analysis," J ournal of Marketing, J uly 19 5 3 . Bilkey uses the
principles of Lewinian vector psychology to set up a simple scale designed to measure both the respondents' " attrac-
tion toward" and " repulsion against" the attributes ( including cost) of a specified product. The predietbr variable is
simply the algebraic difference between the two scale values. Bilkey' s sample is q uite small and nonrandom ( less
than 100 cases, mainly from a university staff) . His results are hard to interpret, although they seem to indicate
that further research along these lines is warranted.
12

A p p e n d i x A : B a s i c D a t a

1
0
8
7
3
8

o

o
r

-
3
.
6

.
0
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N
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T
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A p p e n d i x B : E x p e r i m e n t c d S u r v e y , S e c t i o n I I I
( F o r m C P - 2 1 B X , J u n e 2 3 , 1 9 6 4 ,
U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e ,
B u r e a u o f t h e C e n s u s )
E D I T I N G O F R E S P O N S E S
A s i d e














































S e c t i o n I I I I N T E N T I O N S
P a r t A M O V I N G T O A N O T H E R R E S I D E N C E


H a n d r e s p o n d e n t a n s w e r s h e e t . U n d e r n o c i r c u m s t a n c e s s h o u l d y o u s u g g e s t o n a n s w e r t o t h e r e s p o n d e n t .
I f r e s p o n d e n t r e p l i e s w i t h a w o r d d e s c r i p t i o n s u c h a s " g o o d p o s s i b i l i t y , " a s k : W h a t n u m b e r i s t h a t ?





1 . W h a t a n s w e r y o u c h o o s e f o r t h e p r o s p e c t s t h a t s o m e m e m b e r o f y o u r f a m i l y w i l l m o v e t h e
n e x t
0 4 5 6 7 8 1 0
a n d
2 . W h a t a b o u t t h e n e x t 1 2 m o n t h s , t h a t i s , b e t w e e n n o w a n d n e x t J u l y ?
L 1 2 M 0 N T H S
( 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 O J J N A

-
0 1 4 5 6 7 8 1 0
P a r t B P U R C H A S E O F A U T O M O B I L E S





0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 1 0

.
a b o u t

J
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 N A

3 . W h a t a n s w e r
1

( N E W 1 2 5 6 7 8 9
1 0 1
L J S C O M M - D C 2 8 8 7 2 P - 6 4
5 7
C O L .
S e c t i o n I I I I N T E N T I O N S C o n t i n u e d
. .
P a r t C P U R C H A S E O F A P P L I A N C E S

( 4 9 )
U n d e r n o c i r c u m s t a n c e s s h o u l d y o u s u g g e s t a n a n s w e r t o t h e r e s p o n d e n t



t h e t h a t a b r a n d - n e w d u r i n g t h e n e x t
1 2 m o n t h s ?



I
1 2

0 4 5 6 7 8

2





1 2




V
1 1 2

0



I
1 2

0




1 1 2


x V
1 2
M O N T H S

F O R M C P - 2 I B X ( 6 . 2 3 - 6 4 )

S e c t i o n I I I I N T E N T I O N S C o n t i n u e d
P U R C H A S E O F A P P L I A N C E S C o n t i n u e d
U n d e r n o c i r c u m s t a n c e s s h o u l d y o u s u g g e s t o n a n s w e r t o t h e r e s p o n d e n t

b u y d u r i n g t h e
V
K i t c h e n
Y E A R S J
0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0
r N A
x V
R e f r i g e r a t o r 2

f r e e z e r

x V
W a s h i n g
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0
m a c h i n e
Y E A R S
x V
C l o t h e s
2

Y E A R S 0 1 2 3 4 , 5 6 7 8 9
1 0 1
N A
x V
a i r
1 0
x V
T e l e v i s i o n

x V
D i s h w a s h e r



2 5 6 7 2 P - 6 4
B u d g e t B u r e a u N o . 4 1 - 6 4 1 5 . 1 ; A p p r o v a l
C P - 2 1 B X ( A n i w u r s k e e t ) U . S . D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E
- O F T N E C E N S U S
A N S W E R S H E E T
-
C E R T A I N ,
9
A L M O S T
8
V E R Y
7
P R O B A B L E ( 7 i n l O )
- 5
G O O D
5
F A i R L Y
4
F A I R
3
S O M E
2
' S L I G H T

V E R Y
Q
N O
P . 6 4
6 0