Draft - Traffic - Report - Ramban - Banihal PSC2 (ED-PKS) - DS

Consultancy Services to Study the existing DPR / Contract Provisions for 4-Laning of Ramban-Banihal
Section of NH44 (Km 151 to Km 187) Under Implementation and Prepare Revised DPR for Critical Locations
to Provide Realignments / Alternate Solutions to the Extent Required in the form of Tunnels / Viaducts etc.,
to Make Such Locations All Weather Traffic Worthy and Safe for Operations
5 TRAFFIC SURVEYS AND ANALYSIS
5.1 TRAFFIC STUDY BACKGROUND

The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) under the Ministry of Road
Transport & Highways (MoRT&H), Government of India has entrusted the project
entitled ”Consultancy Services to Study the Existing DPR / Contract Provisions
for 4-Laning of Ramban-Banihal Section of NH-44 (Km 151+000 to Km 187+000)
Under Implementation and Prepare Revised DPR for Critical Locations to Provide
Realignments / Alternate Solutions to the Extent Required in the form of Tunnels /
Viaducts etc., to Make Such Locations All Weather Traffic Worthy and Safe for
Operations” to M/s Intercontinental Consultants and Technocrats Private Limited
(ICT), New Delhi. The project road is shown in Figure 5 -1 below.
Figure 5-1: Location of Project Road

This chapter presents all the required details of traffic surveys conducted,
analysis performed and forecasts made for the project road section of NH-44
from Km 151+000 to Km 187+000 (Ramban to Banihal). The project work started
in the month of September 2020 after the award of work and signing of the
contract. The traffic surveys were conducted during the month of November and
December 2020. The traffic survey locations were finalized as per the observed
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movement pattern in the project area on the basis of field visits and in
consultation with NHAI officials. A complete analysis of the data collected and
future projections of traffic based on necessary traffic analysis has been made
and are presented in this chapter. This chapter presents the details about
estimation of traffic on the project road in the following sections:
Section 5.1 : Traffic Study Background
Section 5.2 : Traffic Surveys
Section 5.3 : Traffic Data and Analysis
Section 5.4 : Traffic Forecast
Section 5.5 : ESTIMATION OF TRAFFIC FOR RAMBAN BANIHAL ROAD
SECTION
Section 5.6 : Capacity and Level of Service Analysis
Section 5.7 : CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The traffic survey analysis along with the study of past trend of the economic
parameters was carried out and the traffic growth was estimated. Using the
growth rate, the future traffic projections have been carried out, which form a part
of this chapter. Impact of implementation of any competing facility in near future
along with all other development impacts, and also the impact of toll charges on
the traffic estimates have been taken into consideration.
5.2 TRAFFIC SURVEYS
5.2.1 Planning of the Surveys
The planning for conducting of traffic surveys started after signing of the
agreement. A reconnaissance survey was taken up for the project road in the
month of November 2020 and possibility of traffic diversion to or from the project
road, if there was any, were duly examined while identifying the traffic survey
locations. The survey locations were identified in conjunction with the surrounding
road network of the project road. The network was also verified by visiting all the
associated road junctions and links so as to assess the traffic level and logistic
requirements for the surveys.
To capture the traffic flow characteristics and travel pattern of users passing
through the project road and other characteristics related to miscellaneous
requirements of the ToR, the following primary traffic surveys were planned and
conducted.
 Automated Traffic Count and Classifier (ATCC) based Classified Traffic
Volume Count Survey
 Intersection Turning Movement Count Survey (TMC)
 Origin-Destination and Commodity Movement Survey (O-D)
 Axle Load Survey
 Pedestrian Count Survey
Traffic survey stations for carrying out traffic volume count survey, O-D survey,
and axle load survey were selected considering the following parameters:
 The station should represent homogeneous traffic section
 The station should lie outside an urban area and away from local traffic
influence
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 The station should be located in a reasonably level road section with good
visibility (preferably a straight section)
Further, the O-D and axle load survey stations should preferably be located near
police stations on the road, if any, in addition to other criteria listed above for the
convenience and safety of stopping vehicles for roadside interview survey.
The details of survey locations identified for the project road are also given in
Table 5 -1. The finalized survey locations are schematically shown in Figure 5
-2. It can be observed that the project road and its surrounding network have
been covered extensively and appropriately in terms of capturing of the traffic
flows and characteristics of travel pattern. The traffic survey locations and
methodology were given in the Inception Report and in turn were discussed with
client officials.
Table 5-1: Traffic Survey Locations
No. of
Sl. Location / Road
Type of Survey Code Location
No. Reference Name
s
Automated Traffic Km 165+000 at
Count and ATCC-1
Khooni Nalah
Classifier based
1 NH-44 2
Classified Traffic
Volume Count (14 Km 172+500 at
ATCC-2
days, 24 hours) Rashtriya Rifle
Km 166+700 at
TMC-1
Makarkote
Intersection Turning
Movement Count Km 172+000 at
2 TMC-2 NH-44 3
Survey (24 hours / Rashtriya Rifle
12 hours)
Km 177+800 at
TMC-3
Chamalwas
Origin-Destination
and Commodity Km 165+000 at
3 OD-1 NH-44 1
Movement Survey Khooni Nalah
(24 hours)
Axle Load Survey Km 165+000 at
4 AL-1 NH-44 1
(48 hours) Khooni Nalah
PC-1 Km 168+200
Pedestrian Count
5 NH-44 2
Survey (16 hours)
PC-2 Km 171+800
3
Figure 5-2: Traffic Survey Locations

Once the logistics at the survey locations were sorted out, it was required to find
requisite number of enumerators and impart them training on traffic surveys.
Young boys from colleges with reasonable intelligence and alertness were
chosen from nearby locations and were then trained for the surveys by
conducting of mock survey work at selected locations.
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As the surveys were conducted simultaneously in more than one location, and
more than one type of survey was conducted simultaneously in certain locations,
strict supervision was imposed, and for this purpose necessary supervisory staffs
were deployed by the consultants.
5.2.2 Schedule of Primary Surveys
A schedule of the surveys was prepared so as to cover all types of surveys
(some of them simultaneously) for collecting data. Traffic movement on the
project road is allowed alternately in one direction i.e. from Jammu to Srinagar
and then from Srinagar to Jammu, based on movements of army convoys. In
order to capture a complete week of temporal variation in traffic, the consultant
conducted traffic surveys for 14 days for the traffic volume counts Similarly two
days of survey were scheduled for turning movement counts and three days of
axle load survey to arrive at the 24 hours of counts. The traffic survey schedule
for the project road is presented in Table 5 -2.
Table 5-2: Schedule of Traffic Surveys
Sl. Location / Survey Survey End
Type of Survey Code
No. Reference Start Date Date
Automated Traffic Km 165+000

Count and ATCC-1 at Khooni 24-11-2020 08-12-2020
Classifier based Nalah
1
Classified Traffic Km 172+500
Volume Count (14 ATCC-2 at Rashtriya 25-11-2020 09-12-2020
days, 24 hours) Rifle
Km 166+700
TMC-1 26-11-2020 27-11-2020
at Makarkote
Intersection Turning
Km 172+000
Movement Count
2 TMC-2 at Rashtriya 28-11-2020 29-11-2020
Survey (24 hours /
Rifle
12 hours)
Km 177+800
TMC-3 30-11-2020 01-12-2020
at Chamalwas
Origin-Destination
Km 165+000
and Commodity
3 OD-1 at Khooni 02-12-2020 03-12-2020
Movement Survey
Nalah
(24 hours)
Km 165+000
Axle Load Survey
4 AL-1 at Khooni 02-12-2020 04-12-2020
(48 hours)
Nalah
PC-1 Km 168+200 01-12-2020 02-12-2020

Pedestrian Count
5
Survey (16 hours)
PC-2 Km 171+800 28-11-2020 29-11-2020
5.2.3 Survey Methodology and Conduct of Surveys

5.2.3.1 Classified Traffic Volume Count Survey
14-days video based Classified Traffic Volume Count Surveys were conducted
at 2 (two) locations. Vehicles travelling in both directions were counted in
successive 15 minute intervals, 24 hours a day. For carrying out the counts,
these were grouped under the categories as per IRC: 64-1990 and as shown in
Table 5 -3.
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Table 5-3: Vehicle Classification System

Motorized Vehicles Non-Motorized Vehicles
2-Wheeler Bicycle
3-Wheeler Cycle Rickshaw
Passenger
Car & Taxi Animal Drawn Cart
Car
Jeep Utility Vehicle (Jeep & Van) Hand Cart
Mini Bus Other NMV
Bus
Standard Bus
LCV Passenger
LGV
LCV Freight
2-axle Truck
Truck
3-axle Truck
4-6 axle Truck
MAV
Greater than 6-axle Truck
With Trailer
Tractor
Without Trailer
Videography was used for automatic counting of traffic. The count was conducted
by fixing video camera at a strategic point on the survey location in order to
capture traffic flow passing through the selected point clearly and without
obstructions in view. This data was converted to excel data sheet format by
means of computer software. Traffic flows in both directions are recorded in video
camera for 24 hours a day for a period of 14 days. Battery back-up arrangements
were put in place for uninterrupted power supply to the cameras and one camera
operator and a reliever were assigned at the counting station.. Recorded data are
extracted and direction wise classified traffic volume count data are recorded
using appropriate software and manual support for successive 15 minute periods,
24 hours a day. Survey proforma for recording the data is presented in Annexure
5.1.
Figure 5 -3 shows photographs of enumerators carrying out traffic volume count
surveys and ATCC cameras and computer monitor display unit at site.
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Figure 5-3: Enumerators Carrying out Classified Traffic Volume Count

Surveys at Different Locations along the Project Road
5.2.3.2 Origin-Destination Survey
The origin-destination (O-D) survey was carried out with the primary objective of
studying the travel pattern of goods and passenger traffic along the study
corridor. The results have also been useful for identifying the influence area of
the project road, estimation of divertible traffic to project road section from
alternate routes, estimation of traffic growth rates, and planning of tolling
strategies for locating the toll plazas on the most viable section of the project
road.
O-D survey was carried out for one day (24 hours) at selected one location on the
project road simultaneously along with the classified traffic volume counts.
Roadside interview method was adopted for the survey. Vehicles were stopped
on random sampling basis with the help of police personnel, and trained
enumerators interviewed the drivers for extracting of requisite information. During
survey, information pertaining to origin, destination, trip lengths, commodity
types, loading pattern, and trip purpose as applicable for various vehicle
categories were recorded. The sample sizes (as percentage of total daily traffic)
as obtained from the survey are given in Table 5 -4 while photographs of O-D
survey being carried out are shown in Figure 5 -4. The proforma used for data
recording is presented in Annexure 5.1.
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Figure 5-4: Enumerators Carrying out Origin-Destination Survey on the

Project Road
Table 5-4: Sample Size Obtained from O-D Survey
Location OD-1
Number 901
Car / Taxi
% 27
Number 7
Bus
% 19
Number 10
Mini Bus
% 6
Number 18
LGV
% 2
Number 433
2-axle Truck
% 14
Number 352
3-axle Truck
% 30
Number 106
4-6 axle Truck
% 14
5.2.3.3 Intersection Turning Movement Count Survey

Intersection turning movement count survey was conducted at 3 (three) major
intersections on project road section as given in Table 5 -1. Classified traffic
volume counts of all vehicle types were made separately for all turning
movements from each approach as per guidelines given in IRC: SP: 41-1994.
The survey was conducted by recording traffic for each successive 15-minute
interval, for 24 hours on a working day with the help of trained enumerators. Each
turning movement at the intersection was recorded by deploying enumerators in
sufficient numbers at suitable locations. The data on peak hour volume with
turning movement flows would be used to analyze and design the intersections.
Survey proforma used for the study is given in Annexure 5.1.
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5.2.3.4 Pedestrian Count Survey

A 16 hour pedestrian count surveys were carried out at selected 2 (two) locations
on the project road (as given in Table 5 -1) in order that the magnitude and
nature of pedestrian flow on the project road be captured. Survey proforma used
for the study is given in Annexure 5.1.
5.2.3.5 Axle Load Survey
Axle load survey was carried out at one location on the project road as illustrated
in Table 5 -1.
During survey, axle load of commercial vehicles, i.e., buses, LGVs, 2-axle trucks,
3-axle trucks, and 4-6 axle trucks were weighed on a random sampling base. The
vehicles were stopped with assistance from police personnel and drivers were
directed to stop their vehicles in such a way that wheel of each axle could be
weighed using a portable Axle Load Weighing Pad. The readings were recorded
manually by trained enumerators for each axle separately and the surveys were
carried out for a duration of 48 hours. Survey proforma used for data recording is
presented in Annexure 5.1. Figure 5 -5 shows photographs of axle load survey
being conducted at site.
Figure 5-5: Enumerators Carrying out Axle Load Survey on the Project
Road
5.2.4 Secondary Data
5.2.4.1 Socio-Economic Data
Secondary data on socio-economic development of areas along the project road
section are required for assessment of economic vibrancy of the region for
identifying future prospects of road development. Thus, data from various
sources were collected to estimate the trend in growth of traffic along the project
corridor. Various socio-economic parameters like population; Net State Domestic
Product (NSDP), Gross State Domestic Project (GSDP), Per Capita Income
(PCI), etc. were used to estimate traffic growth rates on the project road.
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5.3 TRAFFIC DATA AND ANALYSIS

5.3.1 Analysis of Traffic Volume Count
Data collected from site through various traffic surveys were fed to a computer
system and compiled for base year (2020). Various types of vehicles having
different sizes and characteristics were converted to a standard unit called
Passenger Car Unit (PCU). Passenger car equivalents for various vehicles are
adopted based on recommendations put forward by the Indian Roads Congress
and prescribed in their publication IRC:64-1990 entitled “Guidelines for Capacity
of Roads in Rural Areas”. The vehicle wise PCU values as used are presented in
Table 5 -5.
Table 5-5: PCU Factors Adopted for the Study (IRC: 64-1990)
Fast Vehicles Slow Vehicles
Vehicle Group PCU Factor Vehicle Group PCU Factor
Car, Jeep, Van, and Taxi 1.0 Bicycle 0.5
Auto Rickshaw / Tempo 1.0 Cycle Rickshaw 2.0
Animal Drawn
2-Wheeler 0.5 6.0
Cart
Mini Bus 1.5 Hand Cart 3.0
Standard Bus 3.0
Light Goods Vehicle (LGV) 1.5
2-axle Truck 3.0
3-axle Truck 3.0
MAV 4.5
Agriculture Tractor 1.5
Agriculture Tractor & Trailer 4.5
5.3.1.1 Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

The Average Daily Traffic was computed for two locations on the project road
where mid-block volume count surveys were carried out. Daily traffic volumes
were averaged to find the Average Daily Traffic (ADT). Location wise and mode
wise ADT values as obtained are summarized in Table 5 -6. The traffic volume
count data and summary sheets as compiled for various locations are presented
in Annexure 5.2.
Calculation of ADT is a challenging task, as the traffic movement on the project
road doesn’t follow the usual pattern which is generally obtained in other states.
Traffic movement on the project road is allowed alternately in one direction i.e.
one day from Jammu to Srinagar and next day from Srinagar to Jammu. Also,
this pattern is not followed constantly and traffic movement changes as per the
direction and inputs from the traffic police and convoy movement. Hence to
accommodate all these issues, consultant has conducted traffic volume count for
14 days to arrive at the ADT. It has been observed in the analysis that arriving at
the ADT by simply averaging out the 14 days data will not represent the actual
traffic figures because as per observation at site, traffic movement in one
direction is not constant even for consecutive two days. Hence the following four
scenarios were developed to arrive at the representative ADT of the project road
stretch.
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Scenario 1: ADT based on simple average of 14 days data

Traffic data collected for 14 days are simply average out to arrive at the average
daily traffic.
Scenario 2: ADT based on a simple average of maximum 7 days data
among 14 days traffic volume count
In this scenario, traffic of maximum 7 days is used to arrive at the ADT value out
of data collected for 14 days
Scenario 3: ADT based on 1 day Maximum data among 14 days traffic
volume count
In this scenario, maximum traffic out of 14 days is used to arrive at the ADT
value.
Scenario 4: ADT based on a simple average of 7 days maximum UP
(northbound direction) and maximum down (southbound direction) data
In this scenario, southbound and northbound data was looked separately and
maximum of 7 days of northbound and maximum of 7 days of southbound traffic
were average out to arrive at the average daily traffic.
Based upon the above analysis, Scenario 4 is considered best possible traffic
which will be representing the traffic of project road as presented in Table 5 -
6Error: Reference source not found. It can be seen that the ADT on the project
road varies from 17911 PCUs (8165 Veh.) to 18397 PCUs (8266 Veh.)
Table 5-6: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at the Survey Locations
ATCC-1 at Km 165+000 at ATCC-2 at Km 172+500 at
Vehicle Category Khooni Nalah on NH-44 Rashtriya Rifle on NH-44
Veh. PCUs Veh. PCUs
Car / Taxi 3122 3122 2964 2964
Mini Bus 158 237 139 209
Bus 34 101 33 99
LGV 4-Wheeler 564 847 647 971
2-axle Truck 2416 7248 2642 7925
3-axle Truck 1097 3292 1030 3090
4-6 axle Truck 640 2879 648 2918
>6-axle Truck 0 0 2 9
Total Tollable
8031 17726 8105 18184
Traffic
Toll Exempt
43 109 42 115
Vehicles
LGV 3-Wheeler 4 6 18 28
3-Wheeler
4 4 3 3
(Passenger)
2-Wheeler 74 37 89 45
Tractor 3 4 5 7
Tractor With Trailer 6 26 4 16
Bicycle 0 0 0 0
Cycle Rickshaw 0 0 0 0
Hand Cart 0 0 0 0
Animal Drawn Cart 0 0 0 0
Total Non-Tollable
134 186 161 213
Traffic
Total Traffic 8165 17911 8266 18397
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Consultancy Services to Study the existing DPR / Contract Provisions for 4-Laning of Ramban-Banihal Section of
NH44 (Km 151 to Km 187) Under Implementation and Prepare Revised DPR for Critical Locations to Provide
Realignments / Alternate Solutions to the Extent Required in the form of Tunnels / Viaducts etc., to Make Such
Locations All Weather Traffic Worthy and Safe for Operations
5.3.1.2 Composition of Traffic

The composition of traffic (in vehicles) as observed at the survey locations was
worked out from data on traffic volume counts. Table 5 -7 below shows the mode
wise composition of total vehicular traffic as observed at the survey locations. Graphs
showing average composition of traffic at each location are shown in Table 5 -7.
Table 5-7: Composition of Traffic (in Percentage) at the Survey Locations

Station
Khooni Nalah on NH-44 Rashtriya Rifle on NH-44
Car / Taxi 43.60 42.87
3-Wheeler 0.05 0.05
2-Wheeler 1.30 1.50
Mini Bus 2.57 2.11
Bus 0.50 0.47
LGV 7.76 8.62
2-axle Truck 25.56 26.81
3-axle Truck 11.18 10.23
MAV 6.52 6.51
Tractor 0.04 0.07
Tractor with Trailer 0.07 0.04
Non-Motorized Vehicles 0.01 0.00
Toll Exempted Vehicles 0.85 0.74
Total 100 100
From the above table, it can be observed that the share of passenger traffic
(including cars / taxis, buses, mini buses, 2-wheelers, and 3-wheelers) along the
project road section varies between 0% and 47% of the total traffic, whereas the
share of goods traffic (including 2-axle trucks, 3-axle trucks, LGVs, and 4-6 axle
trucks) varies between 0% and 52%.
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Figure 1-6: Traffic Composition on Project Road

5.3.1.3 Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)
The Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is calculated by multiplying ADT with a
Seasonality Factor (SF). Seasonal variation factors by vehicle types are required to
account for variations in traffic volume pattern on the project road over different
months or seasons of a year. There are various methods for determining the
seasonality factor. The most direct method is by making use of the historical traffic
counts data, if traffic surveys are carried out round the year. But year round traffic
counts are seldom done in India on any road. Therefore, the seasonality factors are
mostly calculated based on traffic related secondary data (surrogate data
representing the traffic on road) like fuel sales or toll collections etc. Since the project
road is still under consideration for up-gradation, hence past toll information is not
available on the same. Therefore, petrol and diesel sales data have been collected
from fuel station, most representatives for the project road for the past five years to
account for monthly traffic variation on the project road. Thus, in the present study
the seasonality factors have been derived from the monthly variation of petrol and
diesel sales data collected from two fuel stations along the project road stretch. While
the data has been given in Annexure 5.3, seasonality factors derived for the survey
month for calculation of AADT at different locations is as given in Table 5 -8.
Table 5-8: Seasonality Factor (SF)
SF for Petrol SF for Diesel SF for Non-
Station
Vehicles Vehicles Motorized Traffic
ATCC-1 at Km 165+000
1.03 1.03 1.00
at Khooni Nalah
ATCC-2 at Km 172+500
1.03 1.03 1.00
at Rashtriya Rifle
The ratio of average yearly petrol and diesel sales data with the sale during
November and December 2020 (the survey months) has been used to determine the
seasonal variation factor. The diesel sales data has been used to find the seasonality
factor for freight vehicles, whereas the petrol sales data has been used to calculate
the seasonality factor for passenger vehicles. This is based on the fuel used by
vehicles in the two categories. The seasonality factors presented above are used to
convert Average Daily Traffic (ADT) to Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) at the
survey locations. Table 5 -9 gives the mode-wise AADT obtained for all survey
locations. The same has also been presented in Annexure 5.2.
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Table 5-9: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) at the Survey Locations
Vehicle Category Khooni Nalah on NH-44 Rashtriya Rifle on NH-44
Veh. PCUs Veh. PCUs
Car / Taxi 3216 3216 3052 3052
Mini Bus 163 244 143 215
Bus 35 104 34 102
LGV 4-Wheeler 581 872 667 1000
2-axle Truck 2488 7465 2721 8162
3-axle Truck 1130 3391 1061 3183
4-6 axle Truck 659 2966 668 3005
Total Tollable Traffic 8272 18258 8348 18730
Toll Exempt Vehicles 43 109 42 115
LGV 3-Wheeler 4 6 19 28
3-Wheeler (Passenger) 4 4 3 3
2-Wheeler 77 38 92 46
Tractor 3 4 5 7
Bicycle 0 0 0 0
Cycle Rickshaw 0 0 0 0
Hand Cart 0 0 0 0
Animal Drawn Cart 0 0 0 0
Total
137 188 165 216
Non-Tollable Traffic
Total Traffic 8409 18445 8513 18946
5.3.2 Effect of COVID-19 on Traffic

The effect of COVID-19 pandemic has been due to nationwide lockdown since March
2020, which has adversely affected the traffic movement patterns throughout the
country. Though road traffic was relieved of restrictions after first lockdown itself,
road travel has been severely impacted due to the several other restrictions imposed
by the state governments, which of course, have been relaxed significantly before the
surveys are taken up. However, some effects of these restrictions include people
avoiding less essential and recreational travel, working from home and doing things
online among all other trends. While people are avoiding public transportation and
other shared vehicle modes for travelling, there has been an increase in the use of
private modes including personal vehicles and taxis in large number. People are
buying online and this has increased the number of delivery/logistics vehicles on
roads.
It may be noted that before the start of survey, Unlock 7.0 was being implemented by
the government and traffic movements were fully eased. As per report published in
Elsevier1, across India, retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, visits to parks,
transit stations, and workplaces mobility dropped by −73.4%, −51.2%, −46.3%, −66%
and −56.7% respectively. Visits to residential places mobility increased by 23.8% as
people mostly stayed home during the lockdown. The COVID-19 lockdown started on
1
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7289746/
14
24 March 2020 and just gone one day (March 25, 2020) of the beginning of
lockdown, there have a decreased in percentage (−70.51% in retail and recreation
mobility), (−64.26% in grocery and pharmacy mobility), (−46.17% in parks mobility),
(−65.6% in transit stations mobility), (−60.03% in workplaces mobility) from baseline
in compared to the pre-lockdown period and residential mobility has been increased
in percentage (26.32%) from baseline due to people stayed home during the
lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic in India. Average change in community mobility for
the pre-lockdown and after lockdown period of COVID-19 pandemic is shown in
Figure 5 -7.
Figure 5-7: Change of different community mobility for the pre-lockdown

(15 February to 23 March 2020) and during the lockdown period
(24 March to 30 April 2020) of COVID-19 pandemic.
The Jammu-Srinagar National Highway is the northernmost segment of NH-44. It
runs from Srinagar in the Kashmir Valley southward to the city of Jammu. The
highway starts from Lal Chowk, Srinagar and passes through Pulwama district,
Anantnag district, Kulgam district, Ramban district, and Udhampur district, and ends
in Jammu city. Hence, NH-44 is a strategic road and is of national importance.
Consultant has studied the effect of COVID-19 based on recently done in-house
traffic studies on NH-154 of Himachal Pradesh and NH-05 near Shimla. Based on
these experiences and detailed literature review, COVID-19 correction factors have
has been assumed as shown Table 5 -10 .
Table 5-10: Traffic Comparisons before COVID 19 and after COVID 19
Mode Factors
Car/Jeep / Taxi 1.10
Two Wheeler 1.10
Three Wheeler 1.10
15
Mode Factors
Mini Bus 1.10
Standard Bus 1.10
LGV 1.10
2-Axle Truck 1.10
3-Axle Truck 1.10
Multi-Axle Truck 1.10
For the COVID-19 scenario, the AADTs as estimated from primary survey can be
multiplied by the mode-wise COVID-19 factors as enlisted above to get AADT for a
realistic normal traffic scenario, overcoming any impact of Covid-19.
Table 5-11: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) at the Survey Location
(With COVID-19 corrections)
ATCC-1 ATCC-2
Vehicle Category (Km 165+000 of (Km 165+000 of
Project Road Section) Project Road Section)
Veh. PCUs Veh. PCUs
Car 3537 3537 3358 3358
Mini Bus 179 268 157 236
Bus 38 115 37 112
LGV (4-Wheeler) 639 959 733 1100
2 Axle Truck 2737 8211 2993 8979
3 Axle Truck 1243 3730 1167 3501
MAV 725 3262 735 3306
Total Tollable Traffic 9099 20083 9183 20603
Toll Exempt Vehicles 43 109 42 115
LGV 3WH 5 7 21 31
3-Wheeler (Passenger) 5 5 3 3
2-WH 84 42 101 51
Tractor 3 4 5 8
Bicycle 0 0 0 0
Cycle 0 0 0 0
Hand Cart 0 0 0 0
Animal Drawn Vehicle 0 0 0 0
Total
146 196 177 226
Non-Tollable Traffic
Total Traffic 9245 20279 9360 20829
5.3.3 Analysis of Turning Movement Count Data

Traffic surveys were carried out at three intersections along the project stretch. All
the three junctions are three-armed junctions. The total traffic flows at the three
16
surveyed junctions, are presented in Table 5 -12, and detailed daily and peak hour
flow diagrams are given in Annexure 5.4.
The daily total approach volumes vary from 8432 PCUs (5245 vehicles) to 17,483
PCUs (8306 vehicles). The highest total approach volume in terms of PCUs has
been observed at Makarkote Junction (Km 166+700). The lowest total approach
volume is found at Rashtriya Rifles (Km 172+000).
Table 5-12: Daily Traffic Flows at Major Intersections
Count Total
Chainage Total Traffic
Sl. No. Name of Intersection Station Traffic
(Km) (in Vehicles)
No. (in PCUs)
1 Makarkote TMC 1 166+700 8306 17483
2 Rashtriya Rifles TMC 2 172+000 5245 8432

3 Chamalwas TMC 3 177+900 6605 12985
The peak hour is the most important time period for any intersection. The ability of
the intersection to accommodate the traffic during peak hours is the measure of its
level of service. The junction turning flows during the daily and the peak hour will be
useful in planning for interchanges. The peak hour traffic details on these major
junctions are presented in Table 5 -13. It is observed that the total approach
volumes during peak hour vary from 1168 PCUs at Chamalwas (Km 177+900) to a
volume of 3797 PCUs at Makarkote Junction (Km 166+700). The peak hour
proportion at the three surveyed intersections varies from 9.0% to 21.65%.These
higher proportions are due to the irregular flow of vehicle as per the direction from
traffic police and convoy movement. Traffic is generally allowed to move in one
direction at a time. Hence, when the traffic is allowed to move, it result in peak hour
period for that day.
Table 5-13: Peak Hour Traffic Flows at Major Intersections
Peak Hour
Peak Hour Peak Hour Proportion
Sl. Name of Count Chainage
Traffic (in Traffic (in (As % of
No Intersection Station No. (Km)
Vehicles) PCUs) Daily
Traffic)
1 Makarkote TMC 1 166+700 1538 3797 21.65
Rashtriya
TMC 2 172+000 401 1226 14.45
2 Rifles
3 Chamalwas TMC 3 177+900 612 1168 9.00
5.3.4 Identification of Homogeneous Sections

Project road section having a total length of 36 km; have been analyzed on the basis
of traffic generation and dispersal nodes located along the alignment as seen during
the reconnaissance survey carried out as well as from the observed traffic flows.
Since there are no major dispersal nodes along the 36 km stretch, only one
homogenous section has been used for further analysis.
5.3.5 Analysis of O-D Survey Data
Origin-Destination (O-D) survey was carried out at 1 (one) location on the project
road as presented in Table 5 -1. Data collected from site were fed to a computer
17
system and compiled for base year (i.e., 2020) using the zoning system adopted for
the study. Modewise O-D matrices were prepared from the collected data in order
that the travel characteristics of traffic plying on the project road be found.
5.3.5.1 Data Checking
The data fed to the computer system were checked manually for inconsistencies.
The checking included:
 Matching vehicle type with commodity carried
 Vehicle type with their corresponding lead / load / occupancy for any
inconsistencies
 Any other inconsistency in data
The checked and corrected data were used for final analysis
5.3.5.2 Zoning System
In order that the movement pattern of vehicles on the project influence area is
assessed, a scientifically developed zoning system was adopted keeping in view of
the major trip generation and attraction points in the area. The zones so developed
and made use of in the analysis are as shown in Table 5 -14 and subsequently in
Figure 5 -8 and Figure 5 -9.
Table 5-14: Adopted Zoning System for the Project Influence Area
Zone No. Particular
Internal Zones
1 Ladakh, Leh
2 Kargil
3 Bandipora
4 Kupwara, Gulgam, Handwara, Tangdhar
5 Baramullah, Pattan, Sopore, Uri
6 Ganderbal
7 Badgam, Srinagar Airport
8 Shopian
9 Pulwama, Awantipora, Pampore, Lethipora
10 Srinagar, Batmaloo
Anantnag, Kokernag, Bijbehara, Khanabal, Pahalgam, Achabal, Qazigund,
11
Verinag, Mir Bazaar
12 Kulgam
13 Poonch and Rajouri
14 Banihal West, Banihal town
15 Banihal East, Chamalwas
16 Ramsoo West, Digdol
17 Ramsoo East, Neel, Ramsoo, Makarkote
18 Khari
19 Gool
20 Ramban North
21 Ramban South, Ramban town, Seri
22 Batote
23 Rajgarh
24 Ukhral, Khurd, Senabati
25 Doda, Bhaderwah, Bhari
26 Kishtwar
27 Kathua, Lakhenpora
28 Samba
29 Udhampur
30 Jammu, Seri Panditian
18
Zone No. Particular

31 Reasi, Katra
External Zones
32 Punjab
33 Himachal
34 Haryana
35 Uttrakhand
36 Uttar Pradesh
37 Rajasthan
38 Delhi
39 Gujarat
40 Maharashtra
41 Central India
42 East India
43 South India
Figure 5-8: Internal Zones
19
Figure 5-9: External Zones
5.3.5.3 Expansion Factors and Development of Origin-Destination Matrices

The origin and destination details were collected from trip makers during the O-D
survey on a random sample basis. The sample size varied for different survey
locations depending on the volume of traffic moving on road and the vehicle stopped
on random bases to collect the O-D information. The sampling rate also varied with
the change in traffic flow during different times of the day at the same location. Care
had been taken to eliminate any element of bias in the sampling method. Since the
data were collected on a sample basis, expansion factors are made use of in
replicating the pattern as reflected in the sample to the total number of vehicular trips
made during the day. These expansion factors are calculated separately for each
class of vehicle. For example if “xc“ is the number of cars interviewed and “Xc“ is the
Average Daily Traffic (ADT) at the corresponding MCC / ATCC location, then “Xc/xc“
would be the expansion factor for car. Expansion factor for each vehicle type was
calculated for each O-D location. Multiplying the sample O-D matrix obtained from
survey data with the expansion factors developed, expanded vehicle wise O-D
matrices for the survey location are obtained.
O-D matrices for different vehicle types for the survey station are presented in
Annexure 5.5.
5.3.5.4 Commodity Groups
The different commodities recorded during O-D surveys have been classified in
eleven (11) categories of load carried in trucks as presented in Table 5 -15. Due
consideration has been given to include all possible commodities and to categorize
them into homogeneous groups.
20
Table 5-15: Classification of Commodities
Commodity
Commodity Type Description
Code
1 Minerals Coal, etc.
2 Food Grains Wheat, Rice, etc.
3 Cash Crops Cotton, Jute, Tea, etc.
Vegetables, Fruits, Fish, Meat, Milk and Milk
4 Perishables Items
Products, etc.
5 Wood and Forest Products Timber, Furniture, etc.
6 Building Materials Brick, Cement, Sand, Lime, Stone, Iron, etc.
7 Oil and Natural Gas Petrol, Diesel, Oil, Lubricant, etc.
8 Grocery Items Soap, Salt, Sugar, Pulses, Spices, etc.
Electronic items, Vehicles, Medicine, Leather,
9 Manufacturing Items Wine, Tobacco, Rubber/ Tyre, Plastics, Cloth,
Paper, etc.
10 Others Fertilizer, Rubbish, Animals, etc.
11 Empty ---
5.3.5.5 Commodity Analysis

Mode wise distribution of commodities at the survey location is presented in Table 5
-16.
Table 5-16: Vehicle Wise Distribution of Commodities at the Survey Location
(in Percentage)
OD-1 at Km 165+000 at Khooni Nalah on NH-44
Commodity LGV 2-axle Truck 3-axle Truck 4-6 axle Truck
Minerals 0 2.7 5.6 3.8
Food Grains 11.1 8.0 13.0 24.2
Cash Crops 0 2.3 2.2 3.0
Perishable Items 22.2 36.2 44.0 29.1
Wood and Forest
0 0.2 0.2 2.0
Products
Building Materials 5.5 2.0 3.4 10.6
Oil and Natural Gas 5.5 4.1 2.5 4.8
Grocery Items 11.1 6 4.5 5.8
Manufacturing Items 38.9 18.2 11.3 10.6
Others 0 7.1 2.8 2.0
Empty 5.5 12. 10.0 3.8
Total 100 100 100 100
Perishable items are the major commodity of transport along the project corridor as
observed from the above table. Majority of the item among different category of
commodity include apples, since a large number of high valued apple farms exist in
the Kashmir valley and especially in places like Shopian and Sopore. A significant
number of trucks carrying apples from these locations are observed on the project
road. Other major commodities transported include manufacturing items and food
21
grains. Manufacturing items from these are observed to be transported along the
project stretch as NH-44 is the only supply route through which manufacturing items
from other states are transported to Srinagar and nearby zones.
Similarly, foods grains are third highest category in commodity which is transported in
significant number from the neighboring high agricultural productivity state of Punjab.
A large number of vehicles are also found to travel on the project road empty loaded.
This is due to the reason that commodities are unloaded and distributed in the region
and return empty.
5.3.5.6 Load Analysis
Average load carried by goods vehicles (LGVs, 2-axle trucks, 3-axle trucks, and 4-6
axle trucks) at the surveyed location varies between 6 and 22 tons.
The load analysis for various types of goods vehicles at the surveyed location is
given in Table 5 -17.
Table 5-17: Vehicle Wise Distribution of Trips by Various Load Ranges at the
Survey Location (in Percentage)
Vehicle Average
Type 0.1- 2.6- 5.1- 10.1- 20.1- 30.1- >
Empty Load
2.5 5.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 40.0
(Tonnes)
LGV 5.56 16.67 16.67 33.33 27.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.8
2-axle
12.70 1.39 1.39 30.72 50.12 1.85 0.46 1.39 9.8
Truck
3-axle
9.66 0.28 0.85 9.94 56.53 21.88 0.00 0.85 14.5
Truck
4-6 axle
3.88 2.91 0.00 4.85 19.42 62.14 4.85 1.94 21.1
Truck
From the above table it can be clearly observed that the average load carried by
goods vehicles at the survey location doesn’t exceed the standards for overloading
as laid out for the respective vehicle classes. This is an expected scenario for a
mountainous terrain due to the difficulty experienced in maneuvering of such heavily
loaded vehicles.
5.3.5.7 Lead Analysis
O-D survey data has been analysed for lead ranges / trip length ranges for various
vehicle categories. The trip length frequency distribution in terms of proportion of
vehicles in each range is as presented in Table 5 -18 and subsequently in Figure 5
-10.
Table 5-18: Vehicle Wise Distribution of Trips by Various Trip Length Ranges
at the Survey Location (in Percentage)
Vehicle Average
Type 50- 100- 250- 500- 1000- Trip
0-20 20-50 >1500
100 250 500 1000 1500 Length
(km)
Car /
0.0 6.1 1.2 29.2 57.7 4.2 1.4 0.1 279.5
Taxi
22

Vehicle
50- 100- 250- 500- 1000- Average
Type 0-20 20-50 >1500
100 250 500 1000 1500 Trip
Length
Bus 0.0 14.3 0.00 42.9 42.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 239.2
Mini Bus 0.0 30.0 0.00 50.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 206.2
LGV 0.0 0.0 11.1 16.7 44.4 27.7 0.0 0.0 424.1
2-axle
0.0 1.6 0.2 10.1 51.2 24.0 6.0 6.7 588.5
Truck
3-axle
0.0 0.0 1.1 10.0 42.6 13.6 13.6 19.8 886.5
Truck
4-6 axle
0.00 0.00 0.00 5.8 55.3 6.80 3.0 29.1 930.6
Truck
From the above table it can be observed that the average trip length amongst goods
vehicles is higher for the heavier vehicles. This is so, since the heavier goods
vehicles are used for transporting goods to longer distances while smaller goods
vehicles like LGVs and 2-axle trucks are commonly used for distribution of
commodities to nearer locations.
Figure 5-10: Trip Length Frequency Distribution at OD-1 at Km 165+000 at Khooni

Nalah on NH-44
5.3.5.8 Trip Purpose

O-D survey data for passenger vehicles has been analysed for distribution of trips by
various trip purposes like work / business based, social / recreational / shopping
based, education based, and others based. The percentage distribution of trips by
23
various trip purposes for passenger vehicles at the survey location is as represented
in Table 5 -19.
Table 5-19: Vehicle Wise Distribution of Trips by Various Trip Purposes at the
Survey Location (in Percentage)
Vehicle Social /
Type Work / Business Recreation / Education Others
Shopping
Car / Taxi 79.13 4.66 0.44 15.76
Bus 14.29 0.00 0.00 85.71
Mini Bus 50.00 0.00 0.00 50.00
Analysis on distribution of trips by trip purpose at the survey location shows that there
exists a large share of work / business oriented trips through the project corridor. The
project road offers direct connectivity to Srinagar, the administrative capital of Jammu
and Kashmir. A large number of administrative offices exist in Srinagar and most of
the work / business oriented travellers traverse through NH-44.
5.3.5.9 Travel Time Analysis
O-D survey data has been analysed for distribution of trips for various vehicle
categories based on travel time ranges. The distribution in terms of proportion of
vehicles in each range is as presented in Table 5 -20.
Table 5-20: Vehicle Wise Distribution of Trips by Various Travel Time Ranges
at the Survey Location (in Percentage)
Vehicle Type Average
0-2 hr 2-5 hr 5-10 hr >10 hr Travel Time
(hr)
Car / Taxi 2.55 5.88 80.91 10.65 8.0
Bus 14.29 0.00 57.14 28.57 7.3
Mini Bus 10.00 20.00 60.00 10.00 6.3
LGV 0.00 11.11 38.89 50.00 11.3
2-axle Truck 1.15 1.62 46.65 50.58 13.8
3-axle Truck 0.00 1.70 30.40 67.90 19.0
4-6 axle Truck 0.00 0.00 31.07 68.93 20.0
Analysis of travel time at the survey location indicates longer travel times for the
heavier freight vehicles as compared to the lighter ones. This is since heavier freight
vehicles are used for distribution of commodities to longer distances and hence have
a longer travel time associated with them. Also, the movement of traffic on NH-44 is
not normal, movement to northbound and southbound is allowed on alternated day.
This movement further varies based on the movement of convoy and weather
conditions. Hence, vehicles in each direction have to wait in queue for longer period
of time depending on the traffic movement allowed on the road.
5.3.5.10 Occupancy Survey
Passenger occupancy survey was carried out for passenger vehicles at the O-D
survey location. Table 5 -21 gives mode-wise average occupancy at the survey
locations.
24
Table 5-21: Average Occupancy of Passenger Carrying Vehicles

at the Survey Location
Survey Location Car / Taxi Bus Mini Bus

OD-1 at Km 165+000 at Khooni Nalah on NH-
5 23 13
44
5.3.6 Axle Load Survey
The axle load survey provides data to enable the assessment of the damaging effect
of the heavily loaded commercial vehicles. The survey was carried out using the
electronic static axle load pad on the project road at Km 165+000 at Khooni Nalah on
NH-44. Due to the requirement of stopping vehicles for weighing, it was not possible
to weigh all commercial vehicles passing through site. As such, commercial vehicles
were weighed on a random sampling basis. Vehicles selected for the survey
comprised of buses, LGVs, 2-axle trucks, 3-axle trucks, and 4-6 axle trucks.
5.3.6.1 Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF)
The vehicle damage factor (VDF) is a multiplier to convert the number of commercial
vehicles of different axle loads and axle configuration to the number of standard axle
load repetitions. It is defined as equivalent number of standard axles for each
category of commercial vehicle. The VDF varies with the vehicle axle configuration,
axle loading, terrain, type of road and from region to region. The VDF is arrived at
from axle load surveys on typical road corridors so as to cover various influencing
factors, such as traffic mix in terms of different commercial vehicles (goods vehicles),
commodities carried, time of the year, terrain, road conditions and degree of
enforcement. VDF is determined as the average value for each category of the
commercial vehicle.
The axle load equivalency factors recommended in the AASHTO guidelines are
given in IRC: 37-2012.
For design purposes, the variation in axle loads is determined by converting the
actual axle loads to “Equivalent Standard Axle Load (ESAL)”. An equivalency is a
convenient means of indexing the wide spectrum of actual loads to one common
scale or value. The Equivalency Factor to convert the actual axle loads to Equivalent
Standard Axle Load is determined by the following relationship:
¿
Recommended values for standard axle / standard axle group load are given in Table
5 -22.
Table 5-22: Recommended Values of Standard Axle / Standard Axle Group
Load
Axle Type Standard Axle Load (Tonnes)
Single Wheel – Single Axle 6.60
Dual Wheel – Single Axle 8.16
Dual Wheel – Tandem Axles 15.1
Dual Wheel – Tridem Axles 22.84
The above relationship to determine the equivalency factor is sometimes referred to

as “Fourth Power Law” of damaging effect of axle load. Thus, this relationship states
that the damaging effect of an axle load increases as a fourth power of the ratio of
the weight of an axle to the weight of the standard axle. In order to convert the
observed axle loads during surveys into ESAL; each axle of the vehicle is multiplied
25
by equivalency factor (EF) of that axle. All EFs per axle of the vehicle is then
summed up to obtain the cumulative value of the EF of all vehicles in a category,
which is finally divided by the number of vehicles in that class of vehicle for obtaining
the average value of the VDF (vehicle damage factor) of that class of vehicle.
Cumulative value of the Equivalency Factor
VDF=¿
No . of Vehicles Weighed
The values of VDF were calculated by dividing the sum of all the Equivalency Factors
by the number of samples. But, it was observed that the Equivalency Factor of empty
vehicle had got substantial influence on the VDF values. Therefore, an attempt was
made to give weightage to the empty and loaded vehicle based on their presence on
the highway according to their proportion.
To calculate the cumulative number of standard axles to be catered for in the design
in terms of msa, vehicle category-wise VDF is required. In order to arrive at category
wise VDF values for various types of vehicles, a weighted average of different axle
configuration for a particular category has been calculated. Both, average and
weighted average values of VDF for all commercial vehicles of different axle
configuration at the survey location are given in Table 5 -23. The survey data are
furnished in Annexure 5.6.
Table 5-23: Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF) for Observed Commercial Vehicles
on Project Road
Vehicle Damage Factor (VDF)
Vehicle Type
Up Down
LCV 0.03 0.02
2-axle Truck 3.90 2.54
3-axle Truck 5.85 4.68
MAV 6.96 4.94
*Note: 1. For Ramban - Banihal Road Section, UP = Ramban to Banihal, DN = Banihal to

Ramban
Axle load survey results indicate that VDF are in the range of legal loading allowed
on the National Highways. This is quite natural on the hilly and difficult terrain
condition of NH-44, where there is maneuver and hauling problem for heavy loaded
vehicles.
5.3.6.2 Axle Load Spectrum
Unlike flexible pavement, the design of rigid pavement is governed by single, tandem
and tridem axle loads, their repetition, tyre pressure and lateral placement
characteristics of commercial vehicles. The axle load spectrum as obtained from the
axle load survey data is given in Table 5 -24.This is as per the guidelines outlined in
IRC: 58-2011.
For the design of rigid pavements, front axle of commercial vehicles is not considered
as it carries much lower load and imparts small level of flexural stress in concrete
pavements. Only the rear axle (single, tandem and tridem) is considered for the
same.
26
Consultancy Services to Study the existing DPR / Contract Provisions for 4-Laning of Ramban-Banihal Section of NH44 (Km 151 to Km 187) Under Implementation and
Prepare Revised DPR for Critical Locations to Provide Realignments / Alternate Solutions to the Extent Required in the form of Tunnels / Viaducts etc., to Make Such
Table 5-24: Axle Load Spectrum from Axle Load Survey at Km 165+000 at Khooni Nalah on NH-44
Day Time Night Time
Single Axle Tandem Axle Tridem Axle Single Axle Tandem Axle Tridem Axle
Axle Load No of Axle Load No of Axle Load No of Axle Load No of Axle Load No of Axle Load No of
Axle Axle Axle Axle Axle Axle
Class. KN s Class. KN s Class. KN s Class. KN s Class. KN s Class. KN s
205 215 0 420 440 0 530 560 0 205 215 0 420 440 0 530 560 0
195 205 0 400 420 0 500 530 0 195 205 0 400 420 0 500 530 0
185 195 0 380 400 0 470 500 0 185 195 0 380 400 0 470 500 0
175 185 0 360 380 0 440 470 0 175 185 0 360 380 0 440 470 0
165 175 2 340 360 0 410 440 0 165 175 0 340 360 0 410 440 0
155 165 1 320 340 1 380 410 0 155 165 0 320 340 0 380 410 0
145 155 1 300 320 2 350 380 0 145 155 0 300 320 4 350 380 0
135 145 7 280 300 5 320 350 1 135 145 2 280 300 1 320 350 0
125 135 25 260 280 20 290 320 0 125 135 6 260 280 3 290 320 2
115 125 28 240 260 38 260 290 2 115 125 15 240 260 8 260 290 0
105 115 74 220 240 81 230 260 2 105 115 27 220 240 16 230 260 0
95 105 54 200 220 47 <230 0 95 105 25 200 220 20 <230 0
85 95 37 180 200 46 85 95 15 180 200 14
<85 223 <180 58 <85 84 <180 18
Total 452 Total 298 Total 5 Total 174 Total 84 Total 2
27
5.3.7 Pedestrian Count Survey

Pedestrian Count Survey was carried out for 16 hours (8:00 AM to 8:00 PM) at
various major intersections and mid-block locations, where considerable
pedestrian movements were observed. For each approach road of an
intersection, along and across movements were counted as per the need of the
existing situation. The corresponding total daily pedestrian flows and peak hour
pedestrian flows in the junction are presented in Table 5 -25.
Table 5-25: Pedestrian Flow per Day at Major Intersection
Daily Flow
Daily
Chainage Ramban to Banihal Banihal to Ramban
Flow
Across Along Across Along
166+200 128 437 76 397 1038
171+800 37 192 40 37 306
Peak
Chainage Peak Hour Flow
Flow
166+200 5 13 2 35 55
171+800 0 4 2 2 14
At the location where a pedestrian count was conducted and where vehicular
volumes were available from survey, data has been analyzed to assess the need
of providing controlled crossing, if there any. For the same, Guidelines for
Pedestrian Facilities as per IRC-103-1988 has been referred. According to IRC-
103-1988 a controlled crossing is desirable in case of those locations where the
conflicting peak hour pedestrian volume (P) and vehicle volume (V) are such that
PV2 ≥ 108 for undivided carriageways. Values of PV2 for the intersection are
shown in Table 5 -29.
Table 5-26: PV2 value at Intersections
Location P V V
2
PV
2
166+200 204 443 196249 40034796
171+800 77 443 196249 15111173
The value of PV2 is not exceeding 108 at any of the locations. Therefore, there is
no requirement of a foot over bridge. However zebra crossings need to be
provided at all the arms in each intersection.
5.3.8 Accident data analysis
Accident data was collected from the traffic police stations of Ramsoo and
Ramban for the locations along NH-44 for the years 2016-20. The data gives
information about the number of accidents during these years however, the
details about type of vehicles involved in the accident and exact location of
accident was not provided, instead the accidents have been classified as minor
28
injury, major injury and fatal accidents according to IPC 337, IPC 338 and IPC
304A respectively. The details have been furnished in Table 5 -27 for project
stretch. However, as the exact locations of these accidents are not available, the
design will attend to overall safety requirements, rather than the specific
locations.
Table 5-27: Accident data along project road
Number of Number of Number of Number of
Accidents Minor Injuries Major Injuries Fatalities
Year
under under under under
(IPC-279) (IPC-337) (IPC-338) (IPC-304A/304)
Ramsoo
2016-
2 21 - 8
17
2017-
7 17 1 2
18
2018-
11 14 - 6
19
2019-
11 15 1 5
20
2020-
4 12 - -
21
Ramban
2016-
12 36 12
17
2017-
9 26 5
18
2018-
11 34 15
19
2019-
17 26 15
20
2020-
6 27 14
21
5.4 TRAFFIC FORECAST
5.4.1 Introduction
Financial resources available are always scarce and have competing demands,
and therefore, the investments in a highway and related project has to be
carefully planned, keeping in view not only the present demand but also the
requirements for a reasonable period in future. This underlines the need for
estimating the future traffic accurately, whether the plan is for the construction of
a new facility or the improvement of existing facilities. Accurate estimate of future
traffic will not only have a significant impact on the engineering design of the
facility, but also influence the financial viability of the project.
Traffic forecasting is at best an approximation, which is based on analysis of
available data. Traffic is generated as a result of the interplay of a number of
contributory factors. Forecasts of traffic have, therefore, to be dependent on the
forecasts of factors such as population, gross domestic product, vehicle
ownership, agricultural output, fuel consumption and other related variables.
Future pattern of change in these factors can be estimated with only a limited
degree of accuracy and hence the forecasting of future traffic levels cannot be
precise.
29
In the process of traffic forecast, it is necessary to distinguish between the

various types of traffic. For this report, as defined in the document “IRC: 108-
2015, Guidelines for Traffic Forecast on Highways” published by the Indian
Roads Congress, New Delhi, following traffic components are considered.
Normal Traffic – is the estimated traffic on a roadway facility due to increase in
population, natural change in land-use and normal socio-economic development
in the region or PIA. The normal growth should be estimated based on the past
and future growth trend of traffic on the project corridor or in the influence area.2
Generated Traffic – Road improvements may attract trips from other routes,
modes and encourage longer and more frequent travel. The additional traffic
volumes likely to be generated on project corridor due to road improvements are
termed as generated traffic. Generated traffic may be classified further as
diverted traffic and induced traffic.
Diverted Traffic – is that component of generated traffic which is the result of
shift in route and change of mode. Diverted traffic could be both positive and
negative.
Induced Traffic – is the increase in total vehicle-kilometers of travel due to
roadway improvements, which may be due to increase in vehicle-trip frequency
and distance, but exclude trips/ traffic shifted from other routes. It is like release
of latent or suppressed demand for travel.
Developmental Traffic – refers to the developments in the PIA of the proposed
project corridor such as commercial, industrial, residential, which may generate
substantial amount of additional traffic and contribute significantly to the future
traffic volumes on the project corridor.
Keeping in view the above factors, in this study, the techniques of ‘Elasticity of
Transport Demand’, based on historical growth in vehicle registration and trend of
the economy in the area, has been adopted for estimating the growth rates for
different modes of traffic that are likely to use the project road in future.
5.4.2 Project Influence Area (PIA)
Identification of project influence area is important step in the traffic estimation.
PIA is the geographical area, the change in socio-economic developments of
which will influence the traffic of the project road. The socio-economic profile of
the PIA is expected to have influence on the traffic of project road. O-D data is
analyzed to arrive at the PIA, in terms of traffic recorded in the survey location,
results of which are shown in Table 5 -28 and Table 5 -29.
Table 5-28: Zones of Influence for Goods Vehicles
Zone No Zones Zone Influence Factor (%)
1-31 Jammu and Kashmir 70.4%
32 Punjab 9.5%
33 Uttar Pradesh 5.2%
34 Maharashtra 4.2%
35 Delhi 3.8%
36 Gujarat 1.9%
37 East India 1.5%
38 Haryana 1.2%
39 Central India 0.7%
40 South India 0.6%
41 Uttarakhand 0.5%
2
IRC:108-2015 Guidelines for Traffic Forecast on Highways, published by IRC, New Delhi
30
Zone No Zones Zone Influence Factor (%)

42 Rajasthan 0.4%
43 Himachal 0.1%
Table 5-29: Zones of Influence for Passenger Vehicles
Zone No Zone Influence Factor (%) Zones
1-31 Jammu and Kashmir 98.9%
32 Delhi 0.4%
33 Punjab 0.3%
34 Uttar Pradesh 0.2%
35 Himachal 0.1%
36 Haryana 0.1%
37 Gujarat 0.0%
38 Uttarakhand 0.0%
39 Rajasthan 0.0%
40 Maharashtra 0.0%
41 Central India 0.0%
42 East India 0.0%
43 South India 0.0%
Analysis from above table demonstrates the following facts:
 J&K is the major contributing states with goods vehicle having a share of
70.4% and passenger vehicle having a share of 98.9% among different
states in PIA.
 Other states which have major shares are Punjab, Uttar Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Delhi and Haryana.
Since socio-economic data at the taluk and district level is barely available in
India, therefore, the district level zones in the J&K were clubbed to study the state
level data which is available in the time series. Socio-economic data of other
major states such as Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Delhi and Haryana
were also studied scrupulously for utilizing in the traffic forecast.
5.4.3 Socioeconomic Characteristics of PIA
Besides primary surveys, the following data were collected from various sources:
 Population data
 Vehicle registration data
 NSDP, GDP and per-capita income (PCI) data
These data were collected for project influence area through which the project
road passes as well as draws the traffic from. Socio-economic data for various
districts or sub-district areas, which are considered as traffic analysis zones, were
duly organized and analyzed for calculating the growth rates.
The districts in which the project road lies was also studied in detail in terms of
their socio-economic profile to arrive at realistic traffic growth rates for the project
road.
5.4.3.1 Population Data
Census is conducted every 10 years with the next to be undertaken in 2021.
Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population
scenario, under certain assumptions by using available data at that point of
time. Population projected from the year 2011 to 2020 by census of India is
presented in Table 5 -30.
31
Table 5-30: Population of PIA States from Year 2011 to Year 2020 3
Himachal
Year J&K Punjab Haryana Delhi UP
Pradesh
2011-
12393000 27743338 6865000 25772000 16788000 201600000
2012
2012-
12519000 28023000 6923000 26193000 17166000 204700000
2013
2013-
12645000 28302000 6982000 26614000 17544000 207800000
2014
2014-
12771000 28581000 7041000 27034000 17921000 211000000
2015
2015-
12897000 28861000 7100000 27455000 18299000 214200000
2016
2016-
12999000 29140000 7158000 27861000 18677000 217500000
2017
2017-
13101000 29380000 7206000 28266000 19056000 220800000
2018
2018-
13203000 29619000 7253000 28672000 19435000 224200000
2019
2019-
13305000 29858000 7300000 29077000 19814000 227700000
2020
CAGR 0.91% 0.94% 0.79% 1.53% 2.09% 1.53%
5.4.3.2 Vehicle Registration

Vehicle registration data of J&K s have been obtained from websites of statistics
department of respective states. The vehicle registration data is compiled for all
the states which have influence on the project road and further used in estimating
the growth in vehicle registration are given in Table 5 -31 to Table 5 -37.
Table 5-31: Registered Motor Vehicles in J&K4
Two
Year Cars Taxi Bus LGV Trucks Tractor Trailer
Wheeler
19587
433803 25779 25843 43238 45772
2011-2012 5 19924 667
23032
480815 30049 26594 46792 50253
2012-2013 8 21960 714
26502
530594 35757 27717 51412 52493
2013-2014 4 24438 743
30144
588207 39060 28776 56230 54212
2014-2015 9 27499 763
33847
644458 42328 29760 62047 55860
2015-2016 5 29832 781
37957
706746 44371 30791 67077 59165
2016-2017 1 31162 864
41774
779951 45040 31367 74598 61495
2017-2018 1 32982 919
47181
877700 45623 32100 80328 65491
2018-2019 2 35675 974
53106
956261 49948 33080 91149 68767
2019-2020 4 38458 1017
3
https://nhm.gov.in/New_Updates_2018/Report_Population_Projection_2019.pdf
4
Digest of Statistics, 2017-18 by Directorate of Economics & Statistics
32
13.28
CAGR % 10.39% 8.62% 3.13% 9.77% 5.22% 8.57% 5.41%
Table 5-32: Registered Motor Vehicles in Himachal Pradesh 5
Year Cars 2W Taxi Bus LGV Trucks

2011-2012 138932 331418 23791 7135 47395 51899
2012-2013 184086 384832 25030 14592 43092 53763
2013-2014 201745 433890 33043 15937 56174 71843
2014-2015 231372 484335 34012 16139 61886 74874
2015-2016 262718 545152 34796 17164 66358 76650
2016-2017 297799 606485 34706 21030 67876 77101
2017-2018 340655 678918 35190 11632 85071 79211
2018-2019 396091 771871 38477 13129 97507 88134
2019-2020 451527 864825 41764 14626 109944 97058
CAGR 16.27% 13.69% 9.34% 12.87% 14.62% 11.27%
5
Road Transport Year Book, MoRTH
33
Table 5-33: Registered Motor Vehicles (Punjab)6

Year Cars 2W Bus Trucks
2011-2012 884192 4838239 31061 187603
2012-2013 919489 5280203 33476 200975
2013-2014 956195 5762540 36079 215300
2014-2015 994366 6288938 38884 230647
2015-2016 1034061 6863421 41908 247087
2016-2017 1045782 7480829 45378 255684
2017-2018 1045788 8087612 48612 277851
2018-2019 1157776 8735152 51649 299762
2019-2020 1269764 9382692 54686 321673
CAGR 3.84% 8.37% 7.21% 6.65%
Table 5-34: Registered Motor Vehicles (Haryana)7
2011-2012 3755349 103995 23793 39153 124897 292735
2012-2013 4146906 114465 27946 42800 137511 307509
2013-2014 4541932 127652 33982 45893 152069 327882
2014-2015 4988518 144334 40444 50207 167901 348732
2015-2016 5453960 164490 52756 53348 182776 367730
2016-2017 5937102 183110 76555 57696 196239 390321
2017-2018 6564968 207428 88610 63507 213637 417109
2018-2019 7259232 234976 102562 69902 232578 445735
2019-2020 7953497 262524 116515 76298 251518 474362
CAGR 10.58% 13.28% 15.75% 10.07% 8.87% 6.86%
Table 5-35: Registered Motor Vehicles in Delhi7
Tractor
Year
Cars 2W Taxi Bus LGV Trucks s
2011- 211610 439508
62839 45757 156030 86301 5384
2012 7 6
2012- 228889 470271
73970 46937 174421 86991 5781
2013 0 2
2013- 245761 501403
82190 47987 188330 88016 5781
2014 7 7
2014- 261630 535853
88707 49239 200556 89325 5807
2015 6 5
2015- 278658 573761
99501 50296 214695 91385 5881
2016 4 0
2016- 300175 613062 11336
52005 238784 92557 5997
2017 7 6 6
2017- 295550 620859 12746 52267 231576 93745 5913
6
Economic & Statistical Organization, Govt. of Punjab
7
6
7
34
2018 1 4 7
2018- 315522 659839 14503
2019 1 9 7 53890 254055 94947 6010
2019- 336843 701267 16503
2020 7 7 0 55562 278715 96166 6108
13.78
CAGR 6.76% 6.28% % 3.10% 9.71% 1.28% 1.64%
35
Table 5-36: Registered Motor Vehicles in Uttar Pradesh 7

2011-2012 1193922 12478294 83582 45993 212314 191844
2012-2013 1334471 13934161 104678 52355 256477 214763
2013-2014 1476118 15647536 121399 58922 300997 229447
2014-2015 1636351 17561738 133132 65430 341905 246943
2015-2016 1809969 19482741 147105 73081 377968 271352
2016-2017 1962257 21457533 173301 83964 414950 298936
2017-2018 2194230 23953849 209693 94728 485728 331109
2018-2019 2453626 26740581 253726 106871 568578 366745
2019-2020 2743687 29851514 307006 120571 665560 406217
CAGR 11.82% 11.63% 21.00% 12.82% 17.06% 10.76%
Table 5-37: Registered Motor Vehicles in India 8

Year Cars 2W Taxi Bus Trucks
2011-2012 15467473 101864582 1789417 1238245 7064495
2012-2013 17569546 115419175 2011022 1296764 7658391
2013-2014 20503389 132550294 2216453 1418763 8596762
2014-2015 21671515 139409778 2109348 1468010 8697541
2015-2016 23807986 154297746 2256619 1527396 9344464
2016-2017 25634824 168975300 2341375 1384740 10516156
2017-2018 28476231 186468420 2554348 1458785 11446588
2018-2019 31632583 205772510 2786694 1536790 12459341
2019-2020 35138792 227075050 3040174 1618966 13561699
CAGR 11.08% 10.35% 9.10% 5.35% 8.85%
8
5.4.3.3 Socio-Economic data

Growth of traffic on the project road is influenced by existing economic
development and future growth prospects of the connecting regions. The time
series data of states for Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) at constant
(2011-2012) prices, state population, per-capita income of PIA states and GDP
as published by Central Statistical Organization and State statistical organization
have been collected and studied to assess the past performance of influencing
state economies.
Socio-economic data like GSDP and Per Capita Income (PCI) of the states
influencing the traffic of the project road (proposed road) is presented in Table 5
-38 and Table 5 -39.
Table 5-38: GSDP of Major Influencing States 8
GSDP - Constant Prices (Rupees in Crore)
Year J&K Himachal Haryan UP India
Punjab Delhi
Pradesh a
2011-2012 78256 72720 266628 297539 343798 681895 8736329
86
Economic & Statistical Organization of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, UP, & India
36
GSDP - Constant Prices (Rupees in Crore)

Year J&K Himachal Haryan UP India
Punjab Delhi
Pradesh a
2012-2013 80767 77384 280823 320912 366628 716339 9213017
2013-2014 85116 82847 299450 347507 392908 754331 9801370
2014-2015 82372 89060 312125 370535 428355 780937 10527674
2015-2016 97001 96274 330052 413405 475623 851033 11369493
2016-2017 100199 103055 352721 456659 511765 947548 12308193
2017-2018 106293 110034 375238 494068 548304 1014533 13175160
2018-2019 111859 117851 397669 531085 590569 1094320 13981426
2019-2020 117716 125668 420100 568102 634408 1174108 14565951
CAGR 5.24% 7.14% 5.88% 8.63% 7.96% 6.99% 6.95%
Table 5-39: Per Capita Income (PCI) of Major Influencing States

PCI- Constant Prices (in Rupees)
Year J&K Himachal UP
Punjab Haryana Delhi
Pradesh
2011-2012 53173 87721 85577 106085 185001 32002
2012-2013 52406 92672 88915 111780 192220 35812
2013-2014 54088 98816 93238 119791 200702 40124
2014-2015 50724 105241 95807 125032 213669 42267
10014
59968
2015-2016 112723 1 137818 233115 47118
10584
60557
2016-2017 122208 8 150241 244255 52744
11080
62984
2017-2018 130644 2 159892 255431 58821
11588
64786
2018-2019 139469 2 169409 269505 66512
12096
66641
2019-2020 148294 2 178926 283636 70419
CAGR 2.86% 6.85% 4.43% 6.92% 5.49% 10.36%
5.4.4 Traffic Forecast by Econometric Method
5.4.4.1 Transport Demand Elasticity
The method of long-term traffic forecasting incorporates analyses of some of the
key socio-economic characteristics in the influence area of the project road and
their anticipated rates of change during the study period up to horizon year.
These characteristics are being taken as indicators for the future growth of traffic.
The consultants have used the elasticity approach for determining the growth
rates of future traffic. This involved establishing a quantitative relationship
between traffic growth as the dependent variable and growth in GSDP, PCI, and
population as the independent variables. The methodology involved fitting of a
log-log regression equation to the time series data.
The growth rates for normal traffic obtained from this approach take some
account of the following factors, which normally affect the future traffic levels:
 The prospective growth in the economy
 The prospective demographic growth
37
 The estimated elasticity of demand for transport, and

 Change in the structure of the vehicle fleet, for example in terms of
vehicle productivity and changes in the inter-modal share of passenger
and freight demand
Srinagar, Jammu, Anantnag, Shopian, Banihal are major districts in Jammu &
Kashmir which influence the traffic of project road. Since, all these districts
represent the same characteristics as for J&K. Therefore, elasticity values and
growth rates for J&K were worked out through regression analysis of the vehicle
registration data with selected socio-economic parameters. Also, Leh and Ladakh
which was in J&K before 2019, contributes traffic in significant number to the
project road. As time series data of socio economic variables is not available for
Leh and Ladakh (UT), it has been studied as part of J&K for this study.
Similarly, elasticity values and growth rates were worked out through regression
analysis of the vehicle registration data with selected socio-economic parameters
for Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, UP and rest of India. Table 5 -40 to Table 5 -45
show the regression results of the major contributing states.
Table 5-40: Regression Results-Jammu & Kashmir
Cars
Growth Growth
rate of Growth Rate
Mode Vs
R2 Equation Elasticity socio- rate based
parameter
coefficient economic obtained on
parameter trend
Pop 0.99 y=5.26x+-73.77 5.26 2.36% 12.43%
GSDP 0.91 y=2.11x+-11.46 2.11 5.2% 11.04%
12.6%
NSDP 0.844 y=2.18x+-11.9 2.18 4.4% 9.67%
PCI 0.732 y=2.77x+-17.69 2.77 2.9% 7.93%
Taxi
Pop 0.88 y=3.44x+-45.94 3.44 2.36% 8.13%
GSDP 0.76 y=1.33x+-4.71 1.33 5.24% 6.99%
9.5%
NSDP 0.674 y=1.36x+-4.69 1.36 4.43% 6.00%
PCI 0.556 y=1.68x+-7.83 1.68 2.86% 4.80%
Two Wheelers
Pop 1.00 y=4.23x+-56.17 4.23 2.4% 10.00%
GSDP 0.93 y=1.71x+-6.2 1.71 5.2% 8.95%
9.0%
NSDP 0.869 y=1.78x+-6.66 1.78 4.4% 7.88%
PCI 0.762 y=2.27x+-11.52 2.27 2.9% 6.49%
Bus
Pop 0.99 y=1.37x+-12.26 1.37 2.4% 3.24%
GSDP 0.91 y=0.55x+3.98 0.55 5.2% 2.89%
3.1%
NSDP 0.850 y=0.57x+3.84 0.57 4.4% 2.54%
PCI 0.741 y=0.73x+2.29 0.73 2.9% 2.09%
LGV
Pop 1.00 y=3.85x+-52.33 3.85 2.36% 9.11%
GSDP 0.94 y=1.56x+-6.9 1.56 5.24% 8.19%
13.5%
NSDP 0.883 y=1.63x+-7.37 1.63 4.43% 7.23%
PCI 0.780 y=2.09x+-11.92 2.09 2.86% 5.99%
38
Trucks
Pop 0.98 y=1.99x+-21.78 1.99 2.4% 4.70%
GSDP 0.89 y=0.8x+1.82 0.80 5.2% 4.17%
5.0%
NSDP 0.821 y=0.82x+1.7 0.82 4.4% 3.64%
PCI 0.707 y=1.04x+-0.44 1.04 2.9% 2.97%
Table 5-41: Regression Results Himachal Pradesh

Regression Analysis Results
Cars
Growth
Growt
rate of
Mode Vs Growth h Rate
Elasticity socio-
paramete R2 Equation rate based
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 0.99 y=18.78x+-283.89 18.78 0.79% 14.81%
GSDP 0.98 y=2.13x+-12.1 2.13 7.1% 15.21% 16.3%
PCI 0.971 y=2.2x+-13.24 2.20 6.8% 15.04%
Taxi
Growth
Growt
rate of
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 0.85 y=9.41x+-138.09 9.41 0.79% 7.42%
GSDP 0.83 y=1.06x+-1.8 1.06 7.14% 7.56% 9.3%
PCI 0.807 y=1.08x+-2.22 1.08 6.85% 7.39%
Two-Wheeler
Growth
Growt
rate of
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 1.00 y=15.42x+-230.09 15.42 0.8% 12.16%
GSDP 0.99 y=1.75x+-7.01 1.75 7.1% 12.51% 13.7%
PCI 0.988 y=1.81x+-7.98 1.81 6.8% 12.39%
Bus
Growth
Growt
rate of
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 0.51 y=15.76x+-239.15 15.76 0.8% 12.43%
12.9%
GSDP 0.47 y=1.72x+-10.27 1.72 7.1% 12.32%
PCI 0.451 y=1.74x+-10.8 1.74 6.8% 11.95%
LGV
Growth
Growt
rate of
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
39
Pop 0.91 y=11.88x+-176.37 11.88 0.8% 9.37%

GSDP 0.92 y=1.36x+-4.62 1.36 7.1% 9.73% 14.6%
PCI 0.92 y=1.41x+-5.39 1.41 6.8% 9.64%
Trucks
Growth
Growt
rate of
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 0.87 y=9.64x+-140.89 9.64 0.8% 7.60%
GSDP 0.85 y=1.09x+-1.35 1.09 7.1% 7.77% 11.3%
PCI 0.832 y=1.11x+-1.81 1.11 6.8% 7.61%
Table 5-42: Regression Results Punjab State
Regression Results Punjab
Car
Growth rate Growth Growth
Mode Vs Elasticity of socio- rate Rate
R2 Equation
parameter coefficien economic obtaine based
t parameter d on trend
Pop 0.94 y=3.58x+-47.59 3.58 0.94% 3.36%
GSDP 0.94 y=0.59x+6.35 0.59 5.9% 3.46% 3.8%
PCI 0.930 y=0.77x+4.95 0.77 4.4% 3.41%
Two-Wheeler
R2 Equation
y=9.01x+-
Pop 1.00 139.05 9.01 0.9% 8.46%
8.4%
GSDP 1.00 y=1.48x+-3.14 1.48 5.9% 8.72%
PCI 0.993 y=1.95x+-6.7 1.95 4.4% 8.62%
Bus
R2 Equation
y=7.81x+-
Pop 1.00 123.55 7.81 0.9% 7.34%
7.2%
GSDP 1.00 y=1.29x+-5.73 1.29 5.9% 7.57%
PCI 0.994 y=1.69x+-8.82 1.69 4.4% 7.47%
Trucks
R2 Equation
y=6.91x+-
Pop 0.99 106.35 6.91 0.9% 6.49%
6.7%
GSDP 0.99 y=1.14x+-2.1 1.14 5.9% 6.70%
PCI 0.989 y=1.49x+-4.82 1.49 4.4% 6.62%
Table 5-43: Regression Results Haryana State
Cars
Mode Vs R2 Equation Growth Growth Growth
paramete Elasticity rate of rate Rate
r coefficient socio- obtained based
40
economic on
parameter trend
Pop 1.00 y=6.09x+-88.82 6.09 1.53% 9.35%
GSDP 0.99 y=1.09x+1.44 1.09 8.6% 9.39% 10.6%
PCI 0.990 y=1.32x+-0.17 1.32 6.9% 9.16%
Taxi
Growth Growth
Mode Vs rate of Growth Rate
paramete R2 Equation Elasticity socio- rate based
r coefficient economic obtained on
parameter trend
Pop 0.99 y=14.59x+-238.97 14.59 1.53% 22.40%
GSDP 1.00 y=2.63x+-23.04 2.63 8.63% 22.65% 15.7%
PCI 0.997 y=3.21x+-27.02 3.21 6.92% 22.17%
Two Wheeler
Growth Growth
parameter trend
Pop 1.00 y=7.72x+-120.19 7.72 1.5% 11.85%
GSDP 1.00 y=1.38x+-5.86 1.38 8.6% 11.92% 13.3%
PCI 0.994 y=1.68x+-7.92 1.68 6.9% 11.64%
Bus
Growth Growth
parameter trend
Pop 1.00 y=5.29x+-79.66 5.29 1.5% 8.12%
GSDP 0.99 y=0.94x+-1.31 0.94 8.6% 8.15% 10.1%
PCI 0.986 y=1.15x+-2.71 1.15 6.9% 7.95%
LGV
Growth Growth
parameter trend
Pop 1.00 y=5.79x+-87.03 5.79 1.5% 8.88%
GSDP 0.99 y=1.03x+-1.23 1.03 8.6% 8.90% 8.9%
PCI 0.98 y=1.25x+-2.75 1.25 6.9% 8.68%
Trucks
Growth Growth
parameter trend
Pop 1.00 y=3.94x+-54.58 3.94 1.5% 6.04%
GSDP 0.99 y=0.7x+3.72 0.70 8.6% 6.07% 6.9%
PCI 0.992 y=0.86x+2.68 0.86 6.9% 5.93%
Table 5-44: Regression Results Delhi
Cars
parameter Elasticity rate of rate Rate
coefficient socio- obtained based
41

economic
on trend
parameter
Pop 0.97 y=2.71x+-30.42 2.71 2.09% 5.66%
GSDP 0.97 y=0.71x+5.59 0.71 8.0% 5.62% 6.8%
PCI 0.962 y=0.99x+2.54 0.99 5.5% 5.46%
Taxi
Growth
Growth
rate of Growth
Mode Vs Rate
R2 Equation Elasticity socio- rate
parameter based
coefficient economic obtained
on trend
parameter
Pop 0.99 y=5.5x+-80.37 5.50 2.09% 11.50%
GSDP 0.99 y=1.43x+-7.19 1.43 7.96% 11.41% 13.8%
PCI 0.980 y=2.02x+-13.35 2.02 5.49% 11.06%
Two-Wheeler
Growth
Growth
rate of Growth
Mode Vs Rate
parameter based
on trend
parameter
Pop 0.99 y=2.8x+-31.24 2.80 2.1% 5.86%
GSDP 0.99 y=0.73x+5.99 0.73 8.0% 5.82% 6.3%
PCI 0.984 y=1.03x+2.82 1.03 5.5% 5.66%
Bus
Growth
Growth
rate of Growth
Mode Vs Rate
parameter based
on trend
parameter
Pop 0.99 y=1.11x+-7.71 1.11 2.1% 2.32%
GSDP 0.99 y=0.29x+7.04 0.29 8.0% 2.31% 3.1%
PCI 0.987 y=0.41x+5.79 0.41 5.5% 2.24%
LGV
Growth
Growth
rate of Growth
Mode Vs Rate
parameter based
on trend
parameter
Pop 0.97 y=3.2x+-41.29 3.20 2.1% 6.70%
GSDP 0.96 y=0.84x+1.36 0.84 8.0% 6.65% 9.7%
PCI 0.95 y=1.18x+-2.24 1.18 5.5% 6.45%
Trucks
Growth
Growth
rate of Growth
Mode Vs Rate
parameter based
on trend
parameter
Pop 0.99 y=0.69x+-0.15 0.69 2.1% 1.45%
GSDP 1.00 y=0.18x+9.04 0.18 8.0% 1.45% 1.3%
PCI 0.999 y=0.26x+8.25 0.26 5.5% 1.41%
Table 5-45: Regression Results UP
Cars
paramete Elasticity rate of rate Rate
r coefficien socio- obtained based
42
economic
on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 1.00 y=6.76x+-115.33 6.76 1.53% 10.36%
GSDP 0.97 y=1.44x+-5.42 1.44 7.0% 10.08% 11.8%
PCI 0.993 y=1.02x+3.29 1.02 10.4% 10.59%
Taxi
Growth
Growth
rate of
Mode Vs Growth Rate
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 0.99 y=10.14x+-182.69 10.14 1.53% 15.55%
GSDP 0.94 y=2.1x+-16.98 2.10 6.99% 14.70% 21.0%
PCI 0.982 y=1.53x+-4.73 1.53 10.36% 15.89%
Two-Wheeler
Growth
Growth
rate of
Mode Vs Growth Rate
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 1.00 y=7.19x+-121.2 7.19 1.5% 11.02%
GSDP 0.97 y=1.55x+-4.48 1.55 7.0% 10.81% 11.6%
PCI 0.994 y=1.09x+4.96 1.09 10.4% 11.26%
Bus
Growth
Growth
rate of
Mode Vs Growth Rate
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 1.00 y=7.84x+-139.31 7.84 1.5% 12.02%
GSDP 0.98 y=1.68x+-11.83 1.68 7.0% 11.71% 12.8%
PCI 0.996 y=1.19x+-1.69 1.19 10.4% 12.30%
LGV
Growth
Growth
rate of
Mode Vs Growth Rate
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 0.99 y=9.15x+-162.87 9.15 1.5% 14.03%
GSDP 0.94 y=1.94x+-13.85 1.94 7.0% 13.57% 17.1%
PCI 0.98 y=1.38x+-2.19 1.38 10.4% 14.31%
Trucks
Growth
Growth
rate of
Mode Vs Growth Rate
Elasticity socio-
coefficien economic
r obtained on
t paramete
trend
r
Pop 1.00 y=6.1x+-104.5 6.10 1.5% 9.35%
GSDP 0.97 y=1.29x+-5.22 1.29 7.0% 9.02% 10.8%
PCI 0.995 y=0.92x+2.47 0.92 10.4% 9.57%
Elasticity values obtained from log-normal regression model were further refined
to simulate the actual observed growths in economic parameters. Traffic growth
43
rates obtained from significant socio-economic parameters are compared with the
traffic growth rates from vehicle registration data. Thus, the adopted elasticity
values for different modes of traffic are given in Table 5 -46.
Table 5-46: Adopted Elasticity Values
Influence Zone Car Taxi 2-Wheeler Buses LGV Trucks MAV
Jammu and Kashmir 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8
Punjab 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8
Uttar Pradesh 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8
Delhi 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8
Haryana 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9
Himachal 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9
Rest of India 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8
Different zones have different proportion of traffic originating and destined to it .It
is evident from Table 5 -28 and Table 5 -29 that the traffic originating and
destined to Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and
U.P have higher share of traffic on the project road. Thus, growth rates for all the
identified zones (influence region) were worked out separately. The proportion of
traffic coming from an influence zone was found from the O-D data, and the
growth rate of that particular zone was applied to this proportion of total traffic.
This exercise was carried out for long distance (through) traffic observed on the
project at all survey locations. For the local traffic, one growth rate was adopted
as they originate and are found to be destined within the same state or the district
along the existing road only. The modes that formed the pool of through traffic
are cars, jeeps, buses, LGV, 2-Axle Truck, 3-Axle Truck and MAV.
The average proportion of the contribution of traffic identified from the data
collected from O-D, from major traffic contributing zones in project influence area,
is given in Table 5 -47 for passenger and goods vehicles respectively. The
proportion of traffic coming from an influence zone was found from the O-D data.
Table 5-47: Share of Traffic from Influence Zones at the Location of
O-D Survey (in %)
MAV
Mini 2-Axle 3-Axle
Zones Car Taxi Buses LGV (4-6
Bus Trucks Trucks
Axle)
100.0 100.0
J&K 96.4% 97.7% 77.8% 75.6% 66.2% 65.5%
% %
Delhi 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 7.0% 4.1% 2.4%
Punjab 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 7.5% 10.9% 15.1%
UP 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 6.1% 1.5%
Haryana 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Himachal
0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Pradesh
All India 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 11.1% 15.1%
Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
To assess the future elasticity of transport demand upto 2050, the forecast of
GDP values for the various influence zones, as given by Niti Aayog in the
publication “Transforming India -2032”, and “India 2020 Economy Outlook by Dun
& Bradstreet” were referred. Statistical Books of J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab,
44
Haryana, Delhi and U.P were also considered for using the data to arrive at the
forecast values.
Effect of COVID-19 on Economy
According to India Ratings and Research (A Fitch Group Company), Gross state
domestic products (GSDP) of all states are expected to contract 1.4-14.3 per cent
in the current financial year 2020-21, with Goa, Gujarat, Sikkim and Assam
expected to record a double-digit contraction in GSDP rate. Refer Slide 1 from
the India Ratings and Research website.
45
Slide 1: India Ratings and Research (A Fitch Group Company)

2020 States' GSDP to Contract 1%-14% in FY21; Goa, Gujarat, Assam and Sikkim to be Most Impacted
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects the gross state domestic product (GSDP) of all states in India to
contract in FY21. The contraction will be range in be in the range of 1.4%-14.3%. According to the agency's estimate,
the states that will witness a double-digit contraction in GSDP growth in FY21 are Assam, Goa, Gujarat and Sikkim.
Using the insight gained in terms of the proportion of the state economy that was dysfunctional during the lockdown,
the agency has estimated the GSDP for various states.
Despite the nation-wide lockdown enforced on 25 March 2020, several economic activities defined as essentials
remained operational, while the lockdown impacted different sectors namely agriculture, industry and services
differently. Since agricultural activities were less impacted, the states having a higher share of agriculture are
expected to have suffered less compared to the one where the share of agriculture is low. Also, some sub-sectors
especially in the services such as banking and financial services, IT and IT enabled services were less impacted,
because they were able to readjust their operations remotely owing to the high penetration of digital platform in their
business operations. The states in which the share of these services is high are expected to have suffered less during
the lockdown compared to the one where share of these services is low.
For example, the proportion of agriculture in gross value added was 14.6% for Haryana and 25.0% for Punjab in
FY19. Similarly, the proportion of industry and services was 31.1% and 54.3% respectively in Haryana and 25.2%
and 49.8% in Punjab. This means the overall growth performance of Haryana is more susceptible to the performance
of the industrial and services sectors. As a result, our estimate suggests that the proportion of Haryana economy that
became dysfunctional during the lockdown is 64.3%, higher than 47.9% of Punjab. The top five major states where
impact of lockdown was the most pronounced are Karnataka, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Odisha. Similarly,
the five major states where impact of lockdown was the least pronounced are Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Bihar,
Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
State’s own tax revenue (SOTR) is a function of the nominal GSDP of the state. Although the lockdown is going to
adversely impact the revenue performance of all the states, the states that are likely to be impacted more in FY21 are
the states whose share of SOTR in the total revenue is higher and are also expected to witness a higher deviation in
their nominal GSDP from the budgeted GSDP. The most vulnerable states in this respect are Maharashtra, Gujarat,
Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana and Haryana. The share of SOTR in the total revenue of these states has been
budgeted in the range of 57%-64% in FY21 and their FY21 nominal GSDP is expected to deviate from the budged
nominal GSDP in the range of 15%-24%.
State-wise Estimated GSDP Growth in FY21

Andhra Pradesh -1.4 Manipur -3.7
Arunachal Pradesh -8.2 Meghalaya -3.6
Assam -10.7 Mizoram -5.7
Bihar -4 Nagaland -2.1
Chhattisgarh -5.8 Odisha -9.1
Goa -14.3 Punjab -3
Gujarat -12.4 Rajasthan -4.6
Haryana -6.9 Sikkim -10.9
Himachal Pradesh -9.9 Tamil Nadu -6.1
Jharkhand -1.6 Telangana -3.2
Karnataka -6.4 Tripura -6.6
Kerala -5.1 Uttar Pradesh -7.2
Madhya Pradesh -2.3 Uttarakhand -9.9
Maharashtra -6.1 West Bengal -5.2
All India -5.3
46
In percentage terms, Goa is expected to record the highest GSDP rate

contraction of 14.3 per cent, followed by Gujarat with 12.4 per cent contraction,
Sikkim with 10.9 per cent and Assam with 10.7 per cent.
States having a higher share of agriculture are expected to have suffered less
compared with the ones which have a lower share, the Fitch-group company said
in its report. Some sub-sectors especially in the services such as banking and
financial services, IT and IT enabled services were less impacted because they
were able to readjust their operations owing to the high penetration of digital
platform in their business operations, thus, having less impact on the states
where the share of these services is high, it said.
The top five major states where the impact of lockdown was the most
pronounced are Karnataka, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Odisha, whereas
the report also mention that five major states where impact of lockdown was the
least pronounced are Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and UP.
With regard to states’ revenues, India Ratings said that states that are likely to be
impacted more in FY21 are the states whose share of states’ own tax revenue in
the total revenue is higher, with the most vulnerable states in this respect
expected to be Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana and
Haryana.
Jammu and Kashmir
India is an agrarian economy, and most of the states and union territories also
depend on agricultural operations for their income and employment, including the
union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). There has been a structural shift
from the agricultural sector towards services and manufacturing sectors during
the last two decades (Wani et al 2015). The share of agriculture in the state gross
domestic product (GDP) has declined from 30.1% in 2000–01 to 16% in 2018–
19, whereas the share of services and manufacturing sectors has significantly
increased during 2000–2018. Out of the total GDP of J&K,
Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing Sector constitutes 16.18%, Industry Sector constitute
27.9% and services sector constitutes around 55.92%.
Acuite Ratings & Research Limited, a Credit Rating & Research company, has
pegged per day losses on account of lockdown across India at Rs 35,000 crore.
Taking its figures as a benchmark, the loss to J&K, which accounts for 0.77 per
cent of India’s GDP, comes to Rs 270 crore of which Kashmir’s share is
estimated at Rs 150 crore approximately as its contribution to state GDP is over
55 percent. This is majorly due to the effect of COVID-19 in Industry and services
sector which were mostly closed during lock down.
Consultant has referred various reports published by GoI, FICCI and Credit
Rating Agencies. Accordingly, growth rates of traffic influencing states have been
moderated to simulate the actual condition as close as possible. Since consultant
is predicting the growth rate in the brackets of 5 years, contraction predicted in
the various report may be applied only for first 5 years of the total forecast period.
Consultant predicted that all these factors may result in drop of 1-1.5% in GSDP
of respective states in the initial two year and but will recover after 2023. Table
5 -48 shows the forecast GDP values for the various influence zones of the
project road.
47
Table 5-48: Forecast of GDP in % for 5 years Interval for

various Influence Zones9
Up to 2020
State/ 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- Beyond
from Previous
Year 2025 2030 2035 2040 2040
Data
J&K 5.24% 4.71% 4.95% 5.20% 4.94% 4.44%
Delhi 7.97% 7.17% 7.53% 7.91% 7.51% 6.76%
Punjab 5.81% 5.23% 5.49% 5.76% 5.48% 4.93%
UP 6.49% 5.84% 6.13% 6.44% 6.12% 5.51%
Haryana 8.53% 7.68% 8.06% 8.46% 8.04% 7.24%
Himachal
6.94% 6.25% 6.56% 6.89% 6.54% 5.89%
Pradesh
India 7.66% 6.89% 7.24% 7.60% 7.22% 6.50%
Once the proportion of traffic coming from each zone was established in Table 5
-47 he next step was to find the growth rates for the project road stretch. A
weighted average growth rate was worked out for the project road stretch and
influence area, depending upon the share of traffic contributed by each influence
zone (obtained from O-D), GDP growth of the influence zone and its respective
mode-wise elasticity values obtained through regression analysis.
The weighted average elasticity values, arrived for the project road stretch are
shown in Table 5 -49 and influence area, and corresponding traffic growth rates
obtained are given in Table 5 -50.
Table 5-49: Weighted Elasticity Values Adopted for the Project Road
2 2 Axle 3-Axle
Year Car Taxi Buses LGV MAV
Wheeler Truck Truck
2020-2025 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8

2025-2030 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
2030-2035 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
2035-2040 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Beyond
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
2040
Table 5-50: Traffic Growth Rates obtained for the Project Road
Growth Rates % (Most Likely Scenario)
GR 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- Beyond
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2045
Car / Jeep / Van 5.23 5.76 5.76 4.93 3.94 3.94
Taxi 5.19 5.72 5.72 4.89 3.91 3.91
Two Wheelers 5.23 5.76 5.76 4.93 3.94 3.94
Three Wheelers 5.20 5.50 4.50 3.00 3.00 3.00
Bus / Mini bus 2.83 3.12 3.12 2.67 2.13 2.13
Light Commercial
4.41 4.86 4.86 4.15 3.32 3.32
Vehicles
2 Axle Trucks 4.51 4.97 4.97 4.25 3.40 3.40
9
*IMF, Niti Aayog Transorming India 2032 and India 2020 Economy Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet
48
Growth Rates % (Most Likely Scenario)

GR 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- Beyond
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2045
3 Axle Trucks 4.53 5.00 5.00 4.27 3.42 3.42
MAV 4.17 4.60 4.60 3.93 3.14 3.14
Tractor 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00
5.5 ESTIMATION OF TRAFFIC FOR RAMBAN BANIHAL ROAD SECTION

The projected traffic on the project road section will be first component as the
normal growth of the base year existing traffic. There will be other components of
traffic such as diverted traffic, induced and generated traffic.
5.5.1 Base Year Traffic and Normal Growth
Base year traffic for the road will be the existing traffic (AADT) of the project road
as presented in Section 5.3.1.3 for which there will be normal growth.
5.5.2 Diverted traffic
It is that component of additional traffic which is the result of shift in route and
change of mode. Diverted traffic could be both positive and negative.
Jammu-Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Link
With a view to provide an alternative and a reliable transportation system to
Jammu & Kashmir, Govt. of India planned a 345 km. long Railway Line joining
the Kashmir Valley with the Indian Railways network. The Project has been
declared as a Project of National Importance in March 2002.
The following sections of the railway project have been opened for public:
1. Jammu-Udhampur = 53 kms
2. Qazigund-Baramulla (Anantnag to Rajwansher) = 66 kms
3. Rajwansher to Baramulla = 35 kms
4. Quazigund to Anantnag = 18 kms
The length from Udhampur to Baramulla is 292 km and has been divided into
three sections, details of which are as under.
1. Udhampur-Katra - 25 km
2. Katra-Quazigud - 129 km
3. Quazigund-Baramulla - 119km
Figure 5 -11 shows the rail alignment between Jammu and Baramula. It also
shows NH-44, which runs parallel to the road.
49
Figure 5-11: Jammu-Baramulla Rail Link

In the current scenario, most of the traffic is using NH 44 for the movement to
Srinagar. Length NH-44 from Jammu to Baramulla is around 325 km. O-D survey
done on project road shows that majority of traffic to Srinagar and nearby areas
travel from Jammu and other states like Delhi, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh. Once
the rail link between Udhampur-Qazigund becomes operation in 2022, this will be
the most likely traffic which will shift to the rail.
Hence potential trips which will shift to rail link were identified from the O-D data.
The mode-wise share of traffic estimated from O-D, which may shift to the railway
link after it become operational is given in Table 5 -51. This is the potential
divertible traffic from NH-44 which will shift to rail link. However, all this traffic may
not divert to rail link due to reasons like length of options, last mile connectivity
and time saving. A percentage share of this potential divertible traffic has been
taken as actual divertible traffic as given in Table 5 -51.
Diversion curve was used to estimate the actual divertible traffic; distance and
time ratio are chosen as variable to study the diversion between the two routes,
i.e Project Road and Railway Link. Error: Reference source not found5-11 shows
the diversion curve for time ratio, which was taken for guidance.
50
Figure 5-12: Diversion Curves

As explained earlier, there will be negative diversion from NH-44 to railway mode
once the whole link become operational. Diversion from road to rail is shown in
Table 5 -51.
Table 5-51: Actual Divertible Traffic to Rail link
Diversion
AADT Potential
Potential from Actual Diverted
Modes (Project Trips
Traffic Diversion Traffic
Road) From OD
Curves
Units Veh. Veh. Veh. Veh. Veh in %
A B C=A*B D E=C*E
Car 3358 88% 2967 44% 1317 39.2%
Bus 37 70% 26 44% 12 32.4%
Minibus 157 62% 97 44% 43 27.4%
LGV 733 72% 526 44% 234 31.9%
2-Axle 2993 71% 2129 44% 945 31.6%
3-Axle 1167 62% 724 44% 321 27.5%
MAV 735 62% 454 44% 202 27.5%
9180 6923 3074 33.5%
Hence actual diversion to the railway link will be 33.4% of the total AADT of the
project road.
Further to this, Table 5 -52 gives a summary of the historical trend in traffic
volumes and modal shares of the rail and road modes of transport (Planning
Commission, 1988, 2001; Ministry of Surface Transport, 1996, 1999, 2001; and
the Annual Statistical Statements of the Indian Railways for various years). India
became a decidedly road-dominant economy in the beginning of the eighties with
the railways losing out in respect of freight traffic in addition to its already
declining share in passenger traffic. The dominance of road over rail has since
continued unabated till the present and is almost certain to continue into the
future. The share of rail in the total freight traffic carried by both rail and road
declined from 61 per cent in 1970- 71 to 47 per cent in 1980-81, 30 per cent in
51
1990-91, and 26 per cent in 2000-01. The decline in the share of rail passenger
traffic is almost equally dramatic: the rail mode had a much reduced share of 31
per cent in 1970- 71 which declined to 24 per cent in 1980-81, 15 per cent in
1990-91, and seems to have risen slightly to 18 per cent in 2000-01.
Table 5-52: Rail and Road Traffic Volumes and Modal Shares
Rail Rail
Modal Modal
Rail Rail Road Rail Total Total
Share in Share in
Year Freight Pass. Freight Pass. Freight Pass.
Freight Pass
Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic
Transpor Transpor
t t
(BTKM) (BPKM) (BTKM) (BTKM) (BPKM) (BTKM) (%) (%)
1950-51 44 67 12.09 44.80 56.09 111.80 78.45 59.93
1960-61 88 78 32.53 105.04 120.53 183.04 73.01 42.61
1963-64 107 89 41.05 139.7 148.05 228.70 72.27 38.92
1964-65 107 93 45.46 162.13 152.46 255.13 70.18 36.45
1970-71 127 118 82.36 263.09 209.36 381.09 60.66 30.96
1977-78 163 177 114.97 484.98 277.97 661.98 58.64 26.74
1980-81 159 209 178.36 664.83 337.36 873.83 47.13 23.92
1985-86 206 241 307.03 1038.56 513.03 1279.56 40.15 18.83
1990-91 243 296 566.66 1615.20 809.66 1911.20 30.01 15.49
1995-96 274 342 762.00 2238.00 1036.00 2580 26.45 13.26
2000-01 312 457 899.26 2127.96 1211.26 2584.96 25.76 17.68
Note: Pass.–Passenger, BTKM–billion tonne kilometres, BPKM- billion passenger kilometres.
Citing all these information, consultant is suggesting that potential diversion will
be in the range of 25.76%-33% for the goods and 17.68% to 30% for the
passengers.
For this study, consultant has assumed a negative diversion of 20 % for vehicles
in passenger category and 20% for the vehicles in goods category. This diverted
traffic will also be added in three phases after opening of railway link, i.e. 30% in
year 2022, 30% in year 2023 and remaining 40% in year 2025. Railway Link is
going to be open in the year 2022.
5.5.3 Induced and Development Traffic
When a new road is built, new traffic will divert onto it. Many people may make
new trips they would otherwise not make, and will travel longer distances just
because of the presence of the new road. This well-known and long-established
effect is known as ‘induced traffic’ . Estimation of actual induced traffic will result
in reaping of benefits of a new road, as this will be the new traffic other than
diverted traffic which will be using the road.
Hence, induced and developmental traffic would also be added to account for the
extra traffic which may start using the proposed road once it is constructed and
opened to the normal traffic.
Estimation of induced traffic is a challenging task. Adequate investigations have
not been carried out in Indian context to provide readily usable models or charts
for the estimation of induced traffic. 10 There are some research studies from UK
and USA. Among those studies, SACTRA Report 1994 on Truck Road and the
10
IRC:108-2015 Guidelines for Traffic Forecast on Highways, published by IRC, New Delhi
52
Generation of Traffic done for Department of Transport UK is significant.

SACTRA was by an independent panel of experts set up to advise the
Department for Transport (UK) on the impacts of building new roads. The
conclusion of the report was:
"An average road improvement, for which traffic growth due to all other factors is
forecast correctly, will see an additional [i.e. induced] 10% of base traffic in the
short term and 20% in the long term."
Experience of the consultant for induced traffic in similar projects, in a normal
case, suggests an increase of 5-10% in the traffic from the opening year.
After considering the significant literature review, induced traffic of 5% of the
opening year has been considered for this study. This traffic will be added as
share of the normal traffic, and is considered to be added in three phases after
opening, , i.e. 30% in year 2022, 30% in year 2023 and remaining 40% in year
2025. Railway Link is going to be open in the year 2022.
5.5.4 Projected Traffic
The traffic on the project road was projected for 30 year horizon using the growth
rate worked out as explained in previous section. The projected daily traffic for
most likely scenario for the project road is given in Error: Reference source not
foundTable 5 -53. The mode wise detailed projected traffic is given in
Annexure 5.7.
Annexure 5.7 also includes the traffic forecast for optimistic and pessimistic
scenarios at growth rates 10% up and down respectively, of the normal growth
rate.
Table 5-53: Annual Average Daily Traffic for Ramban-Banihal Road Section
for NH-44
Yea Total Tollable Total Traffic

Year r Total Total Total Total
No. Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs
2060
Base Year Traffic 2020-2021 1 9183 9360 20829
3
2153
2021-2022 2 9615 9799 21771
8
2251
Year of Opening 2022-2023 3 10067 10259 22757
6
Diverted Traffic to Railway
Negative in
Link (30% of 20% Opening A1 604 1351 612 1357
Nature
Year)
30% of 5% generated and
B1 151 338 153 339
Induced Traffic Added
C1=A1+B1 C1 -453 -1013 -459 -1017
Projected Traffic 2022
2150
(Including Generated, Induced and 9614 9747 21593
3
Diverted)
2353
At Normal Growth Rate 2023-2024 4 10541 10741 23788
9
Negative in
Link (30% of 20% Opening A2 604 1351 612 1357
Nature
Year)
30% of 5% generated and B2 151 338 153 339
53
Yea Total Tollable Total Traffic

Year r Total Total Total Total
No. Vehicles PCUs Vehicles PCUs
C2= A2+B2 C2 -453 -1013 -459 -1017
2252
6
Diverted)
2460
9
Growth Rate 2025-2030
2584
2025-2026 6 11611 11829 26108
2
Negative in
Link (40% of 20% of A3 805 1801 816 1809
Nature
Opening Year)
40% of 5% generated and
B3 201 450 204 452
C3= A3+B3 C3 -604 -1351 -612 -1357
2246
4
Diverted)
2359
1
2477
2027-2028 8 11178 11335 24880
4
3013
2031-2032 12 13694 13890 30267
6
3641
2035-2036 16 16662 16903 36573
4
4458
2040-2041 21 20554 20856 44781
2
5281
2045-2046 26 24507 24871 53053
6
6258
2050-2051 31 29228 29667 62866
1
5.6 CAPACITY AND LEVEL OF SERVICE ANALYSIS

Capacity and design service volumes for various lane configurations specified in
the Manual of Specification and Standards for Two Laning of Highways with
Paved Shoulder (IRC: SP: 73-2018) and Manual and Specifications for Four
Laning of Highways through PPP (IRC: SP: 84-2019) by Indian Roads Congress,
the warrants for widening as two lane highways, and design service volumes for
two lane and four lane highways with paved shoulders, have been compiled and
given in Table 5 -54.
Table 5-54: Design Service Volumes at Different Levels of Service
Terrain Design Service Volume in
PCUs per day
2 Lane Highway 4 Lane Highway
with paved shoulder LOS LOS
54
'B' 'C'
Plain 10000
40000 60000
Rolling 8500
Mountainous and
Steep
6000 20000 30000
As per standard IRC: SP:73-2018 IRC:SP:84-2019
Unless otherwise specified in the concession agreement, 6
laning shall be done when total traffic (including traffic on service
Notes:
road, if any) reaches design service volume to LOS 'C' for 4 lane
highway.
The project road lies in the mountainous region of J&K. The lane configuration
proposals based on the IRC: SP: 73-2018 and IRC: SP: 84-2019 are given in
Table 5 -55.
Table 5-55: Year-wise Improvement Proposal Based on IRC Codes
Recommendations
Project Road 2–lane with paved 4–lane with paved 6–lane with paved
shoulder shoulder shoulder
Ramban -
Banihal Section - 2020 2031
(NH-44)
Analysis of the observed traffic and the traffic forecast show the need of four
laning from the year of opening, i.e. 2023. Traffic on the project road section will
exceed the design service volume at LOS C for a 4-lane with paved shoulder
road in the year 2031, and therefore, warranting the project road to be developed
to six lanes with paved shoulder.
Since the requirement of six laning of project road is becoming necessary from
the year 2031 which is just 10 years after year of opening, the consultants
recommend that construction of the project road should be planned as a six lane
facility from the year of opening itself.
5.7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
A comprehensive set of traffic surveys were conducted on the surrounding
network. The traffic surveys included the Traffic Volume Counts, Turning
Movement Counts, O-D Surveys and Axle Load surveys. List of surveys have
been presented in Section 5.2.
The traffic data analysis shows that the AADT at survey station ATCC-1 near
Khooni Nalah is of the order of 18,445 PCUs (8,409 vehicles), while the AADT at
station ATCC-2 (Rashtriya Rifle) is of the order of 18,946 PCUs (8,513 vehicles).
The Consultant has also studied the effect of COVID 19 on the traffic and
accordingly COVID 19 correction have been used after comparing the present
traffic with the pre-COVID traffic data obtained from recently conducted traffic
studies in Himachal Pradesh. Finalized AADT after taking into account COVID-19
has been used for analysis of proposed road up-gradation as given in Section
Error: Reference source not found.
Traffic projections have been done to identify the growth rate in project influence
area. J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, U.P are the major
influencing states which contributes maximum to traffic. The consultants have
used the elasticity approach for determining the growth rates of future traffic. This
involved establishing a quantitative relationship between traffic growth as the
55
dependent variable and growth in GSDP, PCI, and population as the independent
variables. The methodology involved fitting of a log-log regression equation to the
time series data. Negative diverted traffic from road to Jammu-Baramulla Rail link
has been analyzed from the potential trips from the OD survey conducted on the
road. A diversion of 20% for all modes has been assumed based results arrived
from the analysis. This have been added in three stages i.e. 30% in Year 2022,
30% in Year 2023 and 40% in Year 2025 (refer Section 5.4).
Induced and Generated traffic of 5% have been suitably assumed from the
secondary research from the studies happed in western countries and also from
the experience of consultant in previous project of similar nature. This have been
added in three stages i.e. 30% in Year 2022, 30% in Year 2023 and 40% in Year
2025.
Traffic on project road section will exceed the design service volume at LOS C in
the year 2031, and therefore, warranting the project road to be developed to six
lanes in the year 2032. It will be unrealistic to predict the economic growth in the
region and the development patterns surrounding the proposed road for such a
long period of 30 years from the base year (2020). It is, therefore, suggested that
the trend of growth of the economy in the region, development patterns
surrounding the project road (NH-44) and traffic movement on the project road be
re-assessed in the year 2030 or so before taking a decision on six-laning of the
project road.

56

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Consultancy Services to Study the existing DPR / Contract Provisions for 4-Laning of Ramban-Banihal

5 TRAFFIC SURVEYS AND ANALYSIS

5.1 TRAFFIC STUDY BACKGROUND

Figure 5-1: Location of Project Road

Figure 5-2: Traffic Survey Locations

Automated Traffic Km 165+000

PC-1 Km 168+200 01-12-2020 02-12-2020

5.2.3 Survey Methodology and Conduct of Surveys

Table 5-3: Vehicle Classification System

Figure 5-3: Enumerators Carrying out Classified Traffic Volume Count

Figure 5-4: Enumerators Carrying out Origin-Destination Survey on the

5.2.3.3 Intersection Turning Movement Count Survey

5.2.3.4 Pedestrian Count Survey

5.3 TRAFFIC DATA AND ANALYSIS

5.3.1.1 Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

Scenario 1: ADT based on simple average of 14 days data

5.3.1.2 Composition of Traffic

ATCC-1 at Km 165+000 at ATCC-1 at Km 172+500 at

Figure 1-6: Traffic Composition on Project Road

5.3.2 Effect of COVID-19 on Traffic

Figure 5-7: Change of different community mobility for the pre-lockdown

Two Wheeler 1.10

Three Wheeler 1.10

Mini Bus 1.10

Standard Bus 1.10

2-Axle Truck 1.10

3-Axle Truck 1.10

Multi-Axle Truck 1.10

5.3.3 Analysis of Turning Movement Count Data

1 Makarkote TMC 1 166+700 8306 17483

2 Rashtriya Rifles TMC 2 172+000 5245 8432

5.3.4 Identification of Homogeneous Sections

Zone No. Particular

Figure 5-8: Internal Zones

Figure 5-9: External Zones

5.3.5.3 Expansion Factors and Development of Origin-Destination Matrices

Table 5-15: Classification of Commodities

5.3.5.5 Commodity Analysis

OD-1 at Km 165+000 at Khooni Nalah on NH-44

Figure 5-10: Trip Length Frequency Distribution at OD-1 at Km 165+000 at Khooni

5.3.5.8 Trip Purpose

Table 5-21: Average Occupancy of Passenger Carrying Vehicles

Survey Location Car / Taxi Bus Mini Bus

The above relationship to determine the equivalency factor is sometimes referred to

*Note: 1. For Ramban - Banihal Road Section, UP = Ramban to Banihal, DN = Banihal to

95 105 54 200 220 47 <230 0 95 105 25 200 220 20 <230 0

85 95 37 180 200 46 85 95 15 180 200 14

<85 223 <180 58 <85 84 <180 18

Total 452 Total 298 Total 5 Total 174 Total 84 Total 2

5.3.7 Pedestrian Count Survey

166+200 128 437 76 397 1038

171+800 37 192 40 37 306

166+200 204 443 196249 40034796

171+800 77 443 196249 15111173

In the process of traffic forecast, it is necessary to distinguish between the

Zone No Zones Zone Influence Factor (%)

5.4.3.2 Vehicle Registration

Year Cars 2W Taxi Bus LGV Trucks

Table 5-33: Registered Motor Vehicles (Punjab)6

Table 5-36: Registered Motor Vehicles in Uttar Pradesh 7

Year Cars 2W Taxi Bus LGV Trucks

Table 5-37: Registered Motor Vehicles in India 8

5.4.3.3 Socio-Economic data