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NotYet Earnings Suprise Monitor Yadeni 08aug2022
NotYet Earnings Suprise Monitor Yadeni 08aug2022
August 8, 2022
Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Joe Abbott
jabbott@yardeni.com
% Earnings % Y/Y Earnings % With Positive % With Negative % With Positive % With Negative # Companies
Surprise Growth Surprise Surprise Y/Y Growth Y/Y Growth Reported
% Revenue % Y/Y Revenue % With Positive % With Negative % With Positive % With Negative # Companies
Surprise Growth Surprise Surprise Y/Y Growth Y/Y Growth Reported
% surprise = difference between actual and consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 LargeCap 435 -0.1 58.4 17.2 0.4 57.9 2.3
S&P 400 MidCap 323 2.9 50.2 20.1 0.5 51.4 3.1
S&P 600 SmallCap 457 0.6 39.4 12.5 0.3 37.4 3.1
LargeCap Sectors
Communication Services 19 3.1 47.4 21.1 3.9 47.4 0.0
Consumer Discretionary 42 -0.6 64.3 31.0 -0.3 76.2 4.8
Consumer Staples 25 -0.3 64.0 0.0 -0.5 60.0 4.0
Energy 20 1.8 40.0 20.0 0.0 55.0 5.0
Financials 62 -2.9 72.6 37.1 -0.2 58.1 4.8
Health Care 56 -0.9 57.1 16.1 -0.2 55.4 0.0
Industrials 66 -1.8 72.7 13.6 -0.6 75.8 1.5
Information Technology 60 -1.0 66.7 11.7 0.0 70.0 1.7
Materials 26 -2.7 84.6 19.2 -0.8 65.4 0.0
Real Estate 30 9.6 13.3 0.0 2.4 16.7 0.0
Utilities 29 0.8 10.3 3.4 -0.2 13.8 3.4
MidCap Sectors
Communication Services 5 0.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 0.0
Consumer Discretionary 39 -2.0 71.8 25.6 -1.3 79.5 7.7
Consumer Staples 10 4.6 40.0 30.0 4.7 40.0 0.0
Energy 14 15.2 28.6 7.1 1.0 28.6 0.0
Financials 58 3.2 58.6 24.1 2.2 50.0 3.4
Health Care 30 2.1 26.7 6.7 1.0 30.0 3.3
Industrials 58 -1.1 62.1 24.1 -0.7 63.8 3.4
Information Technology 41 -1.0 51.2 24.4 -0.6 61.0 2.4
Materials 22 -2.3 77.3 31.8 -0.9 77.3 0.0
Real Estate 32 7.9 15.6 12.5 0.1 18.8 3.1
Utilities 14 1.3 14.3 0.0 0.3 7.1 0.0
SmallCap Sectors
Communication Services 16 6.0 18.8 6.3 2.3 25.0 0.0
Consumer Discretionary 52 -3.8 69.2 30.8 -1.3 65.4 7.7
Consumer Staples 18 1.5 33.3 5.6 0.1 38.9 0.0
Energy 25 6.4 24.0 0.0 0.2 16.0 0.0
Financials 97 2.5 57.7 19.6 0.8 53.6 6.2
Health Care 58 -0.1 15.5 12.1 0.1 15.5 1.7
Industrials 68 -1.2 45.6 11.8 -0.3 44.1 1.5
Information Technology 45 -8.7 51.1 11.1 -0.1 46.7 4.4
Materials 26 1.0 30.8 0.0 0.3 26.9 0.0
Real Estate 44 3.0 4.5 0.0 0.7 6.8 0.0
Utilities 8 5.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0
4.5 4.5
4.0 4.0
3.5 3.5
3.0 3.0
Q2
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
.5 .5
.0 .0
-.5 -.5
-1.0 -1.0
yardeni.com
-1.5 -1.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
* Percentage that S&P 500 companies reported revenues above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
Figure 2.
25 25
S&P 500 NET EARNINGS SURPRISE*
20 (percent) 20
15 15
10 10
Q2
5 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 -20
yardeni.com
-25 -25
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Percentage that S&P 500 companies reported earnings above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Earnings surprise capped at -20% during Q4-2008.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
40 40
20 20
0 0
-20 -20
Q2
-40 -40
-60 -60
yardeni.com
-80 -80
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
* Percentage of S&P 500 companies that reported revenues above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
Figure 4.
100 100
S&P 500 POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EARNINGS SURPRISES*
(percent of companies)
80 80
Q2
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
-20 Q2 -20
-40 -40
yardeni.com
-60 -60
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Percentage of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
* Percentage amount that revenues were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
Figure 6.
125 125
QUARTERLY EARNINGS SURPRISE*
100 (percent) S&P 500 (7.3) 100
S&P 500 Energy (4.8)
75 S&P 500 ex-Energy (7.6) 75
50 50
25 25
Q1
0 0
-25 -25
2.0 2.0
1.5
Percent Surprise Attributable to Energy (-0.3) 1.5
1.0 1.0
.5 .5
.0 .0
Q1
-.5 -.5
-1.0 -1.0
yardeni.com
-1.5 -1.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Percentage amount that earnings were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
5 5
Q1
0 0
-20 -20
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
1.0 1.0
.5 .5
.0 Q1 .0
-.5 -.5
-1.0 -1.0
-1.5 -1.5
-2.0 -2.0
Percent Surprise Attributable to Financials (-0.1)
-2.5 -2.5
-3.0 yardeni.com -3.0
-3.5 -3.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Percentage amount that revenues were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
Figure 8.
30 30
QUARTERLY EARNINGS SURPRISE*
20 (percent) 20
10 10
Q1
0 0
5 5
0 Q1 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15
yardeni.com
-20 -20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Percentage amount that earnings were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Yardeni Research Inc.
4
Percentange Points Attributable to Energy (3.2) 4
Q1
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
yardeni.com
-8 -8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Figure 10.
80 80
QUARTERLY EARNINGS GROWTH*
60 (percent) 60
40 40
20 20
Q1
0 0
-20 -20
S&P 500 (12.9)
-40 S&P 500 Energy (50.0) -40
-60 S&P 500 ex-Energy (6.4) -60
Growth capped at 50% and -50% due to extreme values.
-80 -80
10 10
8 Percentange Points Attributable to Energy (6.5) 8
6 Q1 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
-8 -8
yardeni.com
-10 -10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
20 20
Q1
10 10
0 0
Figure 12.
80 80
QUARTERLY EARNINGS GROWTH*
60 (percent) 60
40 40
20 20
Q1
0 0
-20 S&P 500 (12.9) -20
-40 S&P 500 Financials (-17.7) -40
S&P 500 ex-Financials (21.3)
-60 -60
Growth capped at 60% and -60% due to extreme values.
-80 -80
75 75
Percent Points Attributable to Financials (-8.4)
50 50
25 25
Growth contribution capped at 60% and -60% due to extreme values.
0 0
Q1
-25 -25
-50 -50
yardeni.com
-75 -75
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-3 -20
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
140 100
120 ENERGY REAL ESTATE
80
100
80 (4.8) (26.7) 60
60
40
40
Q1
20 20
0 Q1
0
-20
-40 -20
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
75 20
FINANCIALS UTILITIES
50 Q1 15
25 (15.6)
(9.7) 10
Q1
0
5
-25
-50 0
yardeni.com
-75 -5
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
2 (-1.4) (0.8) 2
Q1
0 0
Q1
-2 -2
-4 -4
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
6 8
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
6
4
(1.1) (2.2) 4
2
Q1 Q1 2
0
0
-2 -2
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
6 9
CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS 6
4
Q1 Q1 3
2 (2.9) 0
0 -3
-6
-2 (3.5)
-9
-4 -12
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
15 8
10
ENERGY REAL ESTATE
Q1 6
5
0
(1.2) 4
-5 2
-10 Q1
(7.9) 0
-15
-20 -2
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
15 15
10
FINANCIALS UTILITIES 10
Q1
5 (9.1) 5
Q1
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
(2.0)
-15 -15
yardeni.com
-20 -20
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
-30 -20
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
15 60
CONSUMER STAPLES MATERIALS
40
10
(8.2) Q1 (24.1) Q1 20
5
0
0
-20
-5 -40
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
80 Q1 20
60
ENERGY REAL ESTATE
Q1 15
40 (58.8)
(19.1) 10
20
5
0
0
-20
-40 -5
capped at 60%
-60 -10
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 30
30
FINANCIALS UTILITIES 25
20
20 (2.1) 15
10 10
Q1 5
0 Q1 0
-10 -5
(2.2) -10
-20 -15
yardeni.com
-30 -20
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
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