Coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic has created an unprecedented loss and disruptions

over all across the world. From developed to developing, no country has been spared
from its brunt. In this paper, we have analysed the implications of COVID‐19 on the
economy and society of India so far. An impact assessment on the basis of available
literature is made on all the three sectors—primary, secondary and service sector along
with the impact on migrants, poverty, job losses, and so forth. The all sectors of the
economy have been disproportionately affected and even within a sector, there is a
disproportionate loss.

INTRODUCTION
COVID‐19, caused by a new strain of coronavirus, risen out of Wuhan city of China in
December 2019 has been called a pandemic by the World Health Organization. It has
created an unstable environment for individuals, loss of business activities, and loss of
employment. This has halted a large number of economic activities because of infectious
nature and has no vaccine till date. India is on the fourth place in the number of
confirmed cases and first in Asia. Total confirmed cases in India are 4,56,183 out of
which 14,476 lost their lives mainly in the states Maharashtra and Delhi (Ministry of
Health and Family Welfare). Economic disturbances are probably going to be more
extreme and extended in developing and emerging countries with bigger domestic
outbreaks and the more fragile and weak healthcare system; with larger exposure to
international spill-overs through various channels like trade, tourism, and commodity
and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive
informality and poverty (Global Economic Prospects). It is not just a health crisis; it is
the economic and humanitarian crisis and called a black swan by many economists.
Almost all the countries due to COVID‐19 are affected similarly in terms of demand–
supply shocks and disruptions but in India, there was already a downturn in the
economy. In Pre‐COVID era India was encountering with major macroeconomic issues
such as nearly recession with the sluggish GDP growth rate of 4.7% in 2019 which is
lowest since 2013 (as indicated by the official statistics), high unemployment rate,
decline in industrial output of core sectors—the worst in 14 years, stagnancy in private
sector investment, decline in consumption expenditure for the first time in several
decades. Presently, the worry is not for just human wellbeing besides for the worldwide
economy which is most noticeably awful hit in each viewpoint.
SECTORAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON INIDAN
ECONOMY

PRIMARY SECTOR
Before this pandemic, the rural economy of India was witnessing a decline in incomes of
mainly casual workers along with declining rural wages. Some rays of hope were seen in
January 2020 when food prices started rising but all hopes collapsed with this new
crisis. To contain the spread of COVID‐19, just like how other countries did, India
imposed a complete lockdown in march which coincided with the peak of harvesting
season of Rabi crops in India mainly in the north‐west which posed significant losses to
the farmers. Although there were relaxations to the agriculture sector during lockdown
but transport constraints, mobility restrictions and lack of labour due to reverse‐
migration of labour to their native places were the major problems faced by the
farmers. Agriculture seems to be a bright spot in India amid the COVID‐19 crisis and
CRISIL expects agriculture to grow at a rate of 2.5% in FY2021. (CRISIL, 2020). Since
agriculture is the backbone of the country and a part of the government announced
essential category, the impact is likely to be low on both primary agricultural
production and usage of agro-inputs. Several state governments have already allowed
free movement of fruits, vegetables, milk etc. Online food grocery platforms are
heavily impacted due to unclear restrictions on movements and stoppage of logistics
vehicles. RBI and Finance Minister announced measures will help the industry and
the employees in the short term. Insulating the rural food production areas in the
coming weeks will hold a great answer to the macro impact of COVID-19 on Indian
food sector as well as larger economy.
SECONDARY SECTOR
The manufacturing sector is the major contributor of GDP and employment in the
secondary sector and has been recognized as an engine for vibrant growth and creator
of the nation's wealth (Rele, 2020). The manufacturing sector is important in the way
that it has strong linkages with other sectors, both forward and backward linkages so
any impact in this sector will affect other sectors as well. Overall, the manufacturing
sector is going to be affected badly by demand–supply disruptions and global value
supply chain. There is a lot of pressure due to demand–supply disruptions on the health
of the auto sector in India due to COVID‐19. As per the latest assessment related to the
impact of COVID‐19 done by SIAM, the auto sector is expected to have a decline between
22% and 35% in various industry segments conditioned with GDP growth of 0–1% for
FY21. Although all the businesses and sectors are affected due to the pandemic, this
sector is badly hit due to reduced cash flows, supply chain disruptions, shortage of
migrant workers due to reverse migration, less demand, and so forth. Like China, India
is also expected to have major destructions in this sector with more challenges to small
firms as compared with upstream firms. The country’s manufacturing PMI expanded for a
fourth consecutive month, rising to 55.9 in October with services PMI jumping to 58.4 as
against 55.2 in September, the fastest rise in 10 years, according to IHS Markit Survey. We
expect the manufacturing industry to operate in full flow in the coming quarters. The
country has set an ambitious target of $ 400 billion merchandise exports in 2021-2022,
something which is achievable when government and industry associations work together.
Turnover of the capital goods industry is expected to reach around $ 115 billion by 2025,
according to government estimates. With the aim to boost the manufacturing sector, the
Government has relaxed the excise duties on factory gate tax, capital goods, consumer
durables and vehicles.
SERVICE SECTOR
The financial sector who has got the most important role to play in the crisis times has
also been having huge problems in India like Twin Balance Sheet (TBS), high levels of
non‐performing assets (NPAs) and an inadequately capitalized banking system. In the
private corporate sector too, firms are financially weak and over‐leveraged. Some more
problems like IL&FS crisis, decline in commercial credit of around 90% in FY2020‐first
half, and a near‐demise of a well‐known and reputed private bank—Yes Bank, and so
forth. At least 49 million individuals all over the world are expected to dive into
“extreme poverty” as a direct result of the destruction caused by the pandemic and
according to World Bank, India is estimated to have its 12 million citizens pushed in
extreme poverty.

The COVID-19 epidemic has hit the world economy very hard, leaving no industry
unaffected. In this study, we discuss the gaps in the literature surrounding the economy
and economic environments and encourage future research to focus on the stress and
well-being explanation, particularly in response to the pandemic decline. Rising
protectionism and chauvinism have worsened during this pandemic, accelerating the
weakening of the economy. It affects the economy and whole standards and values,
altering them to produce an entirely new chain of values. Social distancing and security
become more critical than immediacy and good organization. Relocation and shut down
of businesses and supply chains are experienced in almost every sector, and even
governments have put the economies aside and are hoarding basic necessities. This
situation has brought about not only practical social distancing but also economic
distancing and has put the world economy in danger.
CONCLUSION
COVID‐19 pandemic has incurred unprecedented loss globally but India being an
emerging economy is likely to get more affected in every sector and that too
disproportionately. Agriculture and allied sector have been hit disproportionately with
horticulture, poultry facing more brunt but overall agriculture sector is seen as a bright
spot and is likely to get affected less as compared with loss occurred to other sectors.
Manufacturing sector especially automotive sector and MSMEs are suffering more loss
and due to global supply chain disruptions is affected badly. Service sector which is the
key driver of economic growth and largest contributor of GDP has been hit hardly due to
various restrictions on mobility, halt on tourism and hospitality for the time being, very
less transport activities, shutdown of schools/colleges, and so forth. The overall loss to
the economy and to different sectors depends on the severity and longevity of crisis.
Amid this coronavirus pandemic and an unprecedented crisis, apart from the monetary
losses, the societal impact is harsh with major sociological and psychological challenges.
Already existing poverty and inequality is likely to increase with major negative impact
on migrants, casual and informal worker with domestic violence and mental illness
being another major challenge. In fact, more attention is needed toward the vulnerable
sections of the society and sectors especially poor people, MSMEs and the non‐essential
commodities sector who is worst hit in this demand contraction due to pandemic.
Unique, inclusive and innovative measures are the need of the hour. Expert
epidemiologists assert that COVID-19 will not disappear – it is with us to stay. While the
initial vaccines may go into clinical trials within 6 weeks, it will still take up to a year
before they are commercially available. Until then, conventional measures will be
needed that date back to the middle -ages – quarantine, limited social contact, school
closings, etc. At all levels – individual, family, neighbourhood, community, region, nation
– the resilience of our economic, social and medical systems will be tested severely in
the coming year.
References
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8134531/
https://www.vifindia.org/article/2019/april/03/covid-19-developments-in-
westasia?slide=$slideshow$
https://asianjournal.org/online/index.php/ajms/article/view/213/96
https://covid19.who.int/
https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/in

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/covid-19-pandemic-
worse-than-2008-09-financial-crisis-imf/articleshow/75161296.cms?from=mdr
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2016/05/27/india-s-poverty-profile