Modi’s poorly planned

lockdown won’t save us

from coronavirus, but will
kill economy

I t is important to note that countries that have so far done a

relatively good job of containing the coronavirus pandemic have

refrained from imposing a complete, nation-wide, curfew-like
lockdown. These include Singapore, Taiwan, Germany, and Turkey.
Even China, where it all started, placed only the Hubei province under
complete lockdown, not the whole country.

But Prime Minister Narendra Modi has put 1.3 billion people under a

curfew-like lockdown. Since the authorities are using the word ‘curfew’
in the context of issuing passes, it is fair to call it a national curfew.

A national curfew for 21 days will definitely go a long way in reducing

the transmission of the deadly virus. But what happens after 21 days?
The virus won’t disappear after that. Not until we get a vaccine, and it
will take at least a few months to vaccinate every Indian even after a
vaccine has been developed. A few months is a very optimistic
estimate. In other words, we are in this mess for years.

Like these other countries, India could also have avoided the need for
a national lockdown had it done what those countries are doing:
testing, testing, testing.
India’s 21-day national lockdown should thus be seen as buying time
to create a massive testing infrastructure, so that even asymptomatic
people could be tested and quarantined. That’s the only way to
manage the coronavirus pandemic until we get drugs and vaccines to
administer en masse.

The devil is in the details 

Sadly, Narendra Modi’s two national addresses have done little to
address this concern about India not taking the mass-testing
approach. We need fast testing, cheap testing, easily available testing
— and a well laid out mechanism to quarantine a person the moment
she is found positive, without letting her infect others, including
medical staff and family members.

You have to be really naive to believe India’s official numbers of

coronavirus patients — and then there are those who have died of
sudden pneumonia without being tested or counted as coronavirus
deaths.

The lack of widespread testing, as well as the lack of PPEs (personal

protective equipment) for doctors, is a scandal. These 21 days are
Modi’s last chance to fix these two problems. The responsibility is his
more than anyone else’s, but state governments will also be put to test.

Sadly, the evidence so far suggests that the Modi government does not
have the capacity to think through the details of planning and
execution. This is turning out to be another demonetisation, with the
typical Modi problem of mistaking theatrics for achievement.
The deliverable is not how many people clanged pots and pans or how
many obediently followed Modi’s advice of staying indoors. The
deliverable is how many people got tested, how many doctors have
protective gear, how many ventilators the government managed to
manufacture or buy overnight. Another deliverable is isolation centres,
temporary hospitals in indoor stadia and quarantine facilities that are
fit for human beings.

Modi does not have the patience or the interest to deliver on these
nitty-gritty details, he’s probably working on his next grandiose
‘address to the nation’ to be applauded for his oratory. He will leave
the tough things to state governments and focus on the right optics to
sustain his political ratings through a tough period.

If the virus doesn’t kill you…

If we survive the pandemic, we won’t survive the impending economic
collapse. The economy isn’t on Modi’s radar either. He won a national
election despite disastrous economic policies that gave us a 45 year-
high unemployment rate. Why should he worry about the economy?

Demonetisation and GST resulted in killing demand, and this poorly

planned national curfew will kill supply chains. We’ll be left with the
great Indian discovery, the zero.

Modi announced a national curfew with little notice. He addressed

India at 8 pm, and the curfew came into force at midnight. Just like
demonetisation. Why couldn’t he have given some notice? Why
couldn’t he have done his TV address at 8 am? Maximising prime time
attention, you see.
The home ministry issued a list of exemptions but try explaining them
to the cops on the street. The Indian police is doing what it loves to do
the most: beating up Indians with lathis. Meanwhile, lakhs of trucks
are stranded on state borders. Supply chains for the most essential
items have been disrupted, including medicines, milk, groceries, food
and newspaper deliveries. Nobody in the prime minister’s office seems
to be aware of any such thing as crop harvesting, or the Rabi season, as
farmers wonder how they’ll do it amid this national curfew. Only Modi
can manage to be so clever as to disrupt the country’s medical supply
chain while fighting a pandemic.

Modi is the only major world leader who has not yet announced a
financial package. In his first speech, he said the finance minister will
head a committee, but some in the finance ministry said they heard of
this committee from the PM’s speech. He did announce Rs 15,000
crore extra to meet the health expenditure arising out of the
Coronavirus crisis — that is Rs 5,000 crore less than the amount of
money he has kept aside for his narcissistic and unnecessary project
of rebuilding the Central Vista of New Delhi.

At this rate, more Indians might die of hunger than of coronavirus.

Modi’s poor administrative skills, zero attention span for details, and
preference for oratory over governance spell disaster for this crisis. In
a few weeks, we might find ourselves overwhelmed with an epidemic
in defiance of official numbers, while the economy might start looking
like the 1980s.