Prediction Models of Learning Strategies and

Learning Achievement for Lifelong Learning

Sittichai Bussaman1, Wongpanya Nuankaew2, Pratya Nuankaew3,

Napa Rachata3, Kanakarn Phanniphong4, and Ploykwan Jedeejit5

1
Faculty of Science and Technology, Rajabhat Mahasarakham University, Thailand
2
Faculty of Information Technology, Rajabhat Mahasarakham University, Thailand
3
School of Information and Communication Technology, University of Phayao, Thailand
4
Faculty of Business Administration and Information Technology, Rajamangala University of Technology Tawan-Ok
5
Faculty of College of Art Media and Technology, Chiang Mai University, Thailand

E-mail address: sittichai.bus@gmail.com1, wongpanya.nu@rmu.ac.th2, pratya.nu@up.ac.th3, and kanakarn.p@cpc.ac.th4

Abstract²7RGD\¶V UDpidly changing in Technology Enhanced problems and develop quality at all levels [11-13]. To
Learning (TEL) and Lifelong Learning Styles (LLS) are becoming understanding the overall picture of Thai education system will
a part of everyday life. This objectives of the paper is to develop a help to understand the problem and find the solution effectively.
theoretical framework and provide perspectives of Learning Therefore, Figure 1 shows the structure of Thai education and
Strategies (LS) and Learning Achievement (LA) for Lifelong Figure 2 presents Thailand's educational management process.
learning at the high school in the Maha Sarakham province. The
paper is focused on identifying the first steps needed to make
learning academic achievement. The data gathering is collected
from 668 students at Phadungnaree School, Maha Sarakham
province. The method consists of three processes: data collection,
data analysis and model development, and evaluation of model
performance. The results of the study found that the factors that
affect students are basic chemistry course (s30102), basic biology
course (s30103), and physics course (s30101). Finally, the testing
results and measurement the performance of the model are high
scores (94.51%), which can be further developed into software
applications and mobile applications.
Figure 1. Thailand's Formal Education System Overview
Keywords-Learning Strategies; Learning Achievement; Lifelong
Learning; Data Mining in Education From Figure 1, it consists of four large groups of ages related
to education, including kindergarten, elementary, secondary and
higher education, where compulsory Thai education is in the age
I. INTRODUCTION range of 7-18 years.
The student's performance in learning can be influenced by
many factors. The basic issue of student learning is the learning
environment and government policies [13, 15]. According to
articles from foreign countries that refer to Thai education. Fulk
HW DO PHQWLRQHG LQ ³6SHFLDO HGXFDWLRQ LQ 7KDLODQG´ WKDW WKH
budget for government-sponsored schools is limited. Fry [16]
ZURWHLQ³7KHHYROXWLRQRIHGXFDWLRQDOUHIRUPLQ7KDLODQG´WKDW
show percentages of students who want to improve their
English, Mathematics and Physics, and lists of underprivileged
students in Thailand.
Although foreign perspectives do not seem to understand the
context of Thailand's education. The number of research reports
related to education in Thailand shows the willingness to solve Figure 2. Teching and Learning Activities

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2017 IEEE International Conference on Teaching, Assessment, and Learning for Engineering (TALE)
Page 192
 In general, the learning process in Thailand is the transfer of
knowledge from person to person such as teacher to student,
adviser to advisee, trainer to trainee, and mentor to mentee [17].
The overall picture of the educational process in Thai institutions
is similar, consisting of educational activities, review and
comprehensive examination, and evaluation as shown in Fig. 2.
However, the purpose of the research is to develop a
theoretical framework and to provide an overview of Learning
Strategies (LS) and Learning Achievement (LA) for lifelong
learning. The limitations of this research focus only on the upper
secondary level, which focuses on finding the insights that make
students fail and leave school. Finally, the author also suggested
and modeled the basic predictions of the probability that students
would not succeed in education.
The paper structure is as follows: Part II provides a brief
literature review. The research methodology is described in Part
III, Part 4 presents the results of the experiment and discussion,
while Part 5 concludes.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
A. Thailand's Formal Education System
In the public domain of Thailand, the education system is
free and takes 12 years to complete. The study structure follows
the "6-3-3" project, with 6 years of primary education, 3 years
of lower secondary level and 3 years of upper secondary level.
As displayed in Figure 3, elementary education is classified as
Prathom 1-6, which correlates to Grades 1-6. While, secondary
education is classified as Matthayom 1-6 and correlates to
Grades 7-12.
Figure 3. Thailand's Formal Education System
B. Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL)
Data mining techniques are one of technology enhanced
learning which helps educators to analyze learning strategies,
learners' behavior, and education modeling to achieve the
learning outcomes. The data mining tool used in the research
consists of two parts: the decision tree and the association rule
techniques.
Decision tree is operated by selecting the best feature (factor)
to separate and expand the leaf nodes of the tree until the stop
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2017 IEEE International Conference on Teaching, Assessment, and Learning for Engineering (TALE)
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requirements. After creating a decision tree pruning, tree steps
can be taken to reduce the size of the nodes.
Association rule is a step that aims to show relationship and
the structure of the sample. It has two parts, namely the
requirements (if), and output (then). It was built with analyzing
data for frequently if / then format and using criteria to identify
the most important relationships. To analyze and predict the
behavior of the products and services, they can be use the
association rules that would be helpful as well.
The benefits of both tools can be used to analyze data,
analyze factors, model and develop mobile educational
applications [11-13].
C. Lifelong Learning Styles (LLS)
According to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
and 169 targets of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO) [14], to ensure inclusive and
quality education for all and promote lifelong learning is the goal
number 4 which major progress has been made towards
increasing access to education at all levels and increasing
enrolment rates in schools.
Thailand is one of the UN members whose main focused in
lifelong learning and education at all levels. As mentioned in
Thailand's National Education Act of B.E. 2542 (1999) [15] that
³$Q(GXFDWLRQ5HIRUP$FWIRU)XUWKHU'HYHORSPHQWRIWKH7KDL
3HRSOH´. Therefore, studying and applying the lifelong learning
styles and model must be consistent with the learner, which is
presented in Figure 4.
Figure 4. The New Age Learning Styles
Figure 4 demonstrates the new generation learning styles that
affect to learning achievement of learner. The main components
are divided into two groups: internal and external factors. Start
with stimuli and motivation that affect the mind of learner
QDPHG³$FFLGHQFH/HDUQLQJ´7KHQWKHOHDUQHUFUHDWHVDSURFHVV
to develop his or her own knowledge to be satisfied named
³/HDUQLQJ6WUDWHJLHV´$IWHUWKDWWKHOearner proved and tested
WRJDLQQHZNQRZOHGJHQDPHG³/HDUQLQJ$FKLHYHPHQW´
D. Learning Strategies (LS)
There are many researches related to the learning strategies
of students, because good strategies can have a huge impact on
academic achievement. Winne [4] mentioned that the ability of
students to choose and modify their learning strategies according
to their learning needs is self-control. However, learner often
have self-control skills and tend to choose inappropriate learning
strategies [5]. In addition, previous research has shown that
learners are not the right reporters of how they study and
strategies they use [6].
In order to apply strategies to the right learners, they need to
study their characteristics and behaviors. The data collected by
the research, most of the data is 17-19 years old, which was born
in 1997-1999 or in the Generation Z group which starting birth
years from the mid-1990s to early 2000s. Therefore, analyzing
the data to suit the learner's strategy is focused on four specific
behaviors: GLJLWDO QDWLYHV¶ VW\OHV >7], mobile addiction [8],
leadership and self-creation [9], and the desire to share and co-
create culture [10].
E. Learning Achievement (LA)
/HDUQLQJ DFKLHYHPHQW DOVR NQRZQ DV VWXGHQWV¶ DFDGHPLF
achievement, it refers to individual learning styles to achieve the
goal of education. The methods of developing learning
achievement have been studied and researched by various
researchers. For example, Wood et al. [2] offers an intergroup
competition approach that promotes and develops knowledge
for learners in an engineering design course. Silk et al. [3]
reported the collaborative design task approach that along with
competition would motivate students to practice and learn more
concepts, as competition scores are used as a measure of success.
Both concepts correspond to the constructivism learning that
learning as building DFKLHYHG YLD WKH VWXGHQWV¶ NQRZOHGJH
construction which occurs through true collaborative in
participatory learning activities [1].
III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Before begin to perform the research, the authors are planed
outline of the research structure into three processes including 1)
data collection, 2) data analysis and model development, and 3)
evaluation of model performance as shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5. Research Methodology
A. Data Collection
It consists of three parts that are in the data collection
process: 1) data definition and attributes, 2) tools and methods,
and 3) providers and resources, as described in the next section.
1) Data Definition and Attributes
The data definition and attributes are categorized into two
parts. The first one is VWXGHQWV¶ DFKLHYHPHQW WKDW UHIHUV WRWKH
overall learning outcome or Grade Point Average (G.P.A.) of
student. While the other is the academic criteria, which refers to
the criteria used to determine a student's performance. It is
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divided into two groups: Group I is a group that meets the
criteria (passing criteria), while students must have an average
score of more than 2.00, and Group II is an unqualified group
(fail criteria), with an G.P.A. less than 2.00.
2) Tools and Methods of Data Collection
The tools used to collect research data are the transcript
reports of the students, which show the results of the course and
the G.P.A. from Grade 10 to Grade 12 (Matthayom 4 - 6).
Volumetric data collection is voluntary, students that the
data provider does not receive any compensation or given any
payment for their involvement.
3) Providers and Resources
A sample of the data sources was gathered from
Phadungnaree School in Mahasarakham province. The collected
data is 668 students, branched into 8 majors, including Science
and Mathematics, Mathematics and Linguistics, Linguistics and
Social Science, French, Chinese, Vietnamese, Business courses,
and Music courses.
B. Data Analysis and Model Development
The data analysis and model development are important
processes, which are the main processes in the research
objectives. It consists of two parts: data analysis and pattern
development, which are as follows:
1) Data Preparation and Analytics
Data preparation and analytics are performed in six steps as
follows:
a) Problem description: It aims to understand the
problem with a detailed plan for the project.
b) Data understanding: It links to identifying the data
source received and coverage to assess the issues.
c) Data preparing: It is the process of cleansing and
changing relevant data into a format that can be used.
d) Creating the models: It deals with the development of
comparable pattern analysis techniques.
e) Evaluating the models: It is related to the evaluation
and assessment of the model.
f) Using the model: It involves engaging in activities by
applying the model.
2) Model Development
Model development is a modeling process, which using data
collected through analysis in previous steps. The process is
divided into two parts: creating decision tree model and applying
association rules.
a) Creating Decision Tree Model
This procedure is performed by the data aggregated through
process decision tree modeling [12-13] and analysis of the
performance of the model with cross validation (x-validation)
methods.
b) Applying Association Rules
This step implements the results obtained from the decision
tree model generated into the specification and relationship
between the data called the association rules.
C. Evaluation of Model Performance TABLE II. ACADEMIC CRITERIA RESULTS

The purpose of the evaluation of model performance is to Number of Academic Criteria Results
select models that are effective and appropriate for application. Disciplines 2014 2015 2016
(Matthayom 4) (Matthayom 5) (Matthayom 6)
The tool consists of two parts: model validation and Model
Pass / Fail Pass / Fail Pass / Fail
Performance.
Science and 249 / 6 249 / 0 248 / 1
1) Model Validation Technique Mathematics (97.65%) / (2.35%) (100%) / (0%) (99.60%) / (00.40%)

Mathematics 48 / 2 48 / 0 48 / 0
Technique used to find model validation is cross validation
and Linguistics (96.00%) / (4.00%) (100%) / (0%) (100%) / (0%)
techniques, whose principle is to divide the data into several Linguistics and 143 / 5 137 / 6 136 / 1
equal parts and then use some data sets to build the model and Social Science (96.62%) / (3.38%) (95.80%) / (4.20%) (99.27%) / (0.73%)

use the remaining data sets to test the model. In this research, French 32 / 17 32 / 0 31 / 1
two methods are used: k-Fold cross validation and leave-one-out (65.31%) / (34.69%) (100%) / (0%) (96.88%) / (3.12%)

Chinese 34 / 1 30 / 4 30 / 0
cross validation. (97.14%) / (2.86%) (88.24%) / (11.76%) (100%) / (0%)

Vietnamese 62 / 7 44 / 18 41 / 3
2) Model Performance Tools (89.86%) / (10.14%) (70.97%) / (29.03%) (93.18% / (6.82%)

Performance modeling is a tool for considering specific Business 27 / 4 27 / 0 27 / 0

models based on three components: accuracy, precision, and courses (87.10%) / (12.90%) (100%) / (0%) (100%) / (0%)

31 / 0 31 / 0 31 / 0
recall [11-13]. Music courses (100%) / (0%) (100%) / (0%) (100%) / (0%)

Total 626 / 42 598 / 28 592 / 6

(93.71%) / (6.29%) (95.53%) / (4.47%) (99.00%) / (1.00%)

IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This step presents the results of the research and concludes
to provide feedback. It consists of two parts: the report section
and the summary and analysis section, as detailed below.
A. Results
Research results include: 1) conducting a summary of
collected data and preliminary statistical analysis, 2) using a data
cleaning and modeling decision tree and association rules
processes, and 3) performing a model performance analysis.
1) Preliminary Statistical Analysis
The collected data consists of eight disciplines from 668
students, as shown in Table I. At the same time, Table II
summarize the number of students who met the academic
criteria.
Based on the statistical data shown in Table I-II. It found that
the interesting data set was the academic year 2014. There were
the highest number of the students who do not pass academic
criteria (42 students).
Therefore, the authors chose to use this information only to
modeling and analyzing in the next topic and use as a pilot model
in the development of mobile applications.
2) Modeling Decision Tree and Association Rules
After selecting the data that is likely to result in unsuccessful
student education. That data is calculated through the decision
tree process, which are suitable as shown in Figure 6.

TABLE I. THE NUMBER OF DATA COLLECTED

Number of Data (Academic Year)

Disciplines 2014 2015 2016
(Matthayom 4) (Matthayom 5) (Matthayom 6)
Science and
255/254 249/249 249/248
Mathematics
Mathematics
50/48 48/48 48/48
and Linguistics
Linguistics and
148/143 143/141 137/136
Social Science
French 49/36 32/32 32/31

Chinese 35/34 34/34 30/30

Vietnamese 69/66 62/61 44/41

Business
31/29 27/27 27/27 Figure 6. Decision Tree Model
courses
Music courses 31/31 31/31 31/31

Total 668/641 626/623 598/592

From Figure 6, it can be converted to the association rule
shown in Table III. Based on this rule, the model can predict the
accuracy of 98.35%.
Table I shows that the number of students at a higher level
decreases. While, the details of the decrease in the number of
students are shown in Table II.

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 TABLE III. AN ASSOCIATION RULES From Table IV - VI, it shows that the model chosen is
Conditions appropriate and should be developed as an application to support
Rule
Cause (IF) Effect (Then)
the educational, and it can be concluded that the basic model is
If S30102 > 1.875 and S30103 > 0.750 and
suitable for learning strategies and learning achievement for
Rule I M30201 > 0.750 and M31101 > 1.750 and Pass lifelong learning.
LC31201 > 0.875 then
If S30102 > 1.875 and S30103 > 0.750 and B. Discussion
Rule II M30201 > 0.750 and M31101 > 1.750 and Fail
/&”WKHQ In the topic of discussion, it can divide the issues into two
If S30102 > 1.875 and S30103 > 0.750 and parts: 1) how to choose the research data, and 2) how the results
Rule III 0!DQG0”DQG Pass of the model are used in the design overview.
S30102 > 2.625 then
If S30102 > 1.875 and S30103 > 0.750 and
Rule IV 0 !  DQG 0 ”  DQG Fail 1) Issue I
6”WKHQ How does little information affect the overall picture?
Rule V
If S30102 > 1.875 and S30103 > 0.750 and
Fail Although the data used is only minor, the main problem in Thai
0”WKHQ
education is the high level of dropout [18-19]. These models can
Rule VI ,I6!DQG6”WKHQ Fail be used to predict students' dropouts, which can be used to
Rule VII ,I6”WKHQ Fail analyze factors affecting future student learning.
Correct: 657 out of 668 training examples 2) Issue II
Design overview is a reflection of one problem found in
3) Model Performance Analysis secondary schools. Education levels in this study as the basis for
This step is to evaluate the performance of the model in two students who wishing to enter university, where knowledge is
parts. It uses two techniques, namely k-Fold cross validation more theoretical than practical. The nature of the study may not
and leave-one-out cross validation, which are shown in Table IV be consistent with the behavior or characteristics of some
- VI. learners. Therefore, this research can be conducted to suggest
that students find alternative career options by choosing to study
TABLE IV. SUMMARY OF MODEL PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS in a more suitable field.
Number of Model Performance
Folds Accuracy Precision Recall
5 94.51% 98.30% 95.74%
V. CONCLUSION
Studies and research in the learning strategies and learning
10 93.34% 97.88% 94.87%
achievement field are complex. Sometimes research is just
15 94.51% 98.04% 96.14% preliminary statistics that are difficult to apply. Therefore, this
research aims to develop the knowledge and results of research,
leave-one-out 95.69% 97.86% 97.45%
which can be further developed and applied.
Table IV shows that the selected model is highly efficient The data used in the research is collected from 668 students
even in multi-level tests, where the optimal level are 5-Fold and at Phadungnaree School, Maha Sarakham province. The method
leave-one-out, which are shown in Table V and Table VI. consists of three steps: data collection, data analysis and model
development, and evaluation of model performance.
TABLE V. 5-FOLD CROSS VALIDATION
The results of the study found that the factors that affect
Predicted / True Condition students are basic chemistry course (s30102), basic biology
Precision course (s30103), and physics course (s30101). Testing results
Actual True Pass True Fail
and measure the performance of the model are high scores
Predicted Pass 42 26 61.54%
(94.51%), which can be further developed into software
Predicted Fail 10 589 98.25% applications and mobile applications.
Recall 80.00% 95.74%

Accuracy: 94.51% +/- 2.88% (Mikro: 94.51%)

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
TABLE VI. LEAVE-ONE-OUT CROSS VALIDATION The authors and research project were supported financially
and with resources by Rajabhat Mahasarakham University and
Predicted / True Condition
Precision the University of Phayao. The authors would like to thank the
Actual True Pass True Fail
researchers, participants, and technicians for their efforts toward
Predicted Pass 39 16 71.43% the completion of this research.
Predicted Fail 13 600 97.86%
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