ANALYSIS REGRESSION TOBIT SPATIAL :

Studies Case Use Internet in Island Java

Andy Sun Mustard 1 , Ismaini Zain 2

1
Body Center statistics, e-mail: andhie@bps.go.id
2
Institutes Technology Ten November,
e-mail: andhie@bps.go.id, 2 ismaini_z@statistika.its.ac.id
1

Abstract

A special method is needed to analyze censored data that has a spatial correlation. If use regression
linear, will produce estimation parameter which no valid, no fulfillment assumption of normality and
cloud the interpretation of the model. Spatial Tobit regression model was used to analyze data use
Internet in Island Java. Estimate parameter use method MCMC Gibbs sampler with approach
inference Bayesian. The result, use Internet in Island Java is influenced by the percentage of the
population living in urban areas, the percentage of the population graduate of SENIOR HIGH
SCHOOL to on, average long school, percentage house ladder which have phone handheld, and
percentage of village/kelurahan that gets a cell phone signal.

Say key : data censored, correlation spatial, Tobit spatial, MCMC, use Internet

Abstract

Special method is required for analyzing censored data with spatial dependence. Using linear
regression will results in invalid parameter estimations, normality assumption violations, and obscure
the model interpretation. Spatial Tobit regression model is used to analize the data of internet usage
in Java. MCMC Gibbs sampler method with Bayesian inference approach was used for parameter
estimation. As a result, internet usage in Java Island is influenced by the percentage of population
living in urban areas, the percentage of population graduated from senior high school, the average
length of school, the percentage of households with mobile phones, and the percentage of villages
receiving cell phone signal.

Keywords: censored data, spatial dependence, spatial Tobit, MCMC, internet usage

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I | 1

PENDAHULUAN
Use model regression linear classic
for analysis data censored which have
correlation spatial is decision which not
enough appropriate. Term data censored
used for explain group data which have
amount unknown value at upper bound or
below. Long (1997) explains that if use
model regression linear on the entire
censored data, will produce score parameter
which overestimates on slope and
underestimates on intercepts . Whereas if
remove or cut observation which value no
is known, will produce coefficient
parameter which underestimates on slope
and overestimates on intercepts . Data cut
off cause happening correlation Among
variable predictor with residuals, so that
produce estimation which no consistent.
Effect correlation spatial could appear on
formation model regression linear which
use data territory ( cross data section ). This
results in no fulfillment assumption error
which independent and identical distribute
normal, so as to produce parameter
estimates which no valid and blur
interpretation model (Marsh,
Mittelhammer, & Huffaker, 2000).
Correlation spatial could observed from
grouping the value of specific to data
originating from the region which close by,
for example data level use Internet
district/city in Island Java.
height level use Internet on the island
of Java, mainly found in cities city big as
center service education and entertainment,
such as DKI Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Bandung,
and Surabaya, then followed by region
district/city other in surroundings.
Phenomenon dependencies spatial this
could applied for analysis data censored
which have correlation spatial, where is the
district/city with the use of Internet
category tall could considered as data of
unknown value. As much 34 from 118
district/city in Java Island has the
percentage of users Internet which more tall
than 16 percent
2 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-
(BPS, 2011), a value equivalent to amount
account Facebook which made by
population Indonesia on year 2011 (Social
baker, 2011).
Needed method special for To do
analysis use Internet, with assumption that
data use Internet in Island Java is data
censored which have correlation spatial.
Fischer and Brittle (2010) say that censored
data modeling involving region should use
analysis spatially, the most suitable method
is spatial Tobit regression. In addition, Lee
(2010) also stated that Tobits approach
spatial more recommended for analysis
region which involve data censored.
Analysis regression Tobit spatial used if the
response variable in the spatial model
involve data which believed have score
censored (LeSage & Pace, 2009).
Study this mean for form a spatial
Tobit regression model and look for method
estimation parameter from model regression
Tobit spatial. Data which used as variable
response is percentage of population aged 5
years and over who accessed the internet
for three months final in island Java on year
2010. Sensor given to region district/city
with percentage user Internet more big from
16 percent, which considered as the
minimum percentage internet users who
want to be reached by something
district/city.
METHODOLOGY
a. Reference
Overview Model
Regression Tobit
Suppose is something variable
response with information complete and is
sample data from , so variable response
that censored could defined
as following:
(1)
 where , is something depicted as region dark on curve. If score
constraint constant, and is a lot observation which no is known the cut, so part
(Tobin, 1958) 1 . information which could explain
If score unknown when population will is lost where curve
, then it contains something distribution Becomes more pointed (panel
variable latent which no could observed on B). Panel C describe data censored which
whole i t s range . Panel A on Picture group on score so it doesn't
2.1 shows the distribution of change the
, with score variable latent information
related distribution population.

Picture 1. Latent Variable Illustration, cut off, and Censored (Long, 1997 )

Model Tobit formed with more use data cross section as following:
formerly assume existence connection
linear between with variable predictor (4)
which declared by: where , is a vector
(2) variable response which have correlation
spatial, is variable matrix predictor, and
dimana , , is vector parameter regression. As for
is is coefficient correlation spatial
predictor variable lag from variable response, is
vector , is vector coefficient correlation spatial error, and is a
parameter, and is a lot variable, with spatial weighing matrix
contains variable latent which represents with element diagonal worth
the censored value 2 . Score censored can be zero. Equality this also normal called as
smaller than a limit lower ( model regression spatial autoregressive
), more big from limit on ( moving
average (SARMA).
), or both. ,
When censored on limit on
,
, so model regression Tobit declared
,
with equality as following:

(3) , and

Model Regression Spatial

On year 1988, Anselin develop the
general form of the model regression
spatial ( general spatial models )
1
The Tobit regression model was first introduced by 2
As explained by Long (1997) and Greene (2008).
James Tobin (1958), re-explained by Long (1997),
DeMaris (2004), Greene (2008), and
Lee (2010).
Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I | 3

Equality (4) in on Becomes form model
regression spatial lag when , which
explain the occurrence of spatial correlation
effects between lag variable response.
When , equality (4) Becomes form
model regression spatial error, which
explains the occurrence of effect correlation
spatial between lag variable response and
between lag variable predictor. Statistics
test Lagrange used for determine form from
model regression spatial (Anselin, 1999).
To see whether or not there is an
effect correlation spatial lags, used
hypothesis opponent
with statistics Lagrange Multiplier test or
LM-lag Test as following:
(5)
For see existence or whether or not effect
spatial error, used hypothesis
opponent with LM-err . test
statistics Test as follows:
(6)
where , ,
, and . Statistics test
this
follows the asymptotic distribution ,
until rejected when
or p-value more small from value .
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
MCMC is something technique
method simulation which awaken a number
of samples from the data distribution that
known (Chib & Greenberg, 1996). Idea
base from technique MCMC is than count
something function density opportunity
, more good take sample random in
amount big from for knowing
form probability the by appropriate. With
large random sample size, the mean and
standard deviation can be calculated by
accurate (Casella & George,
4 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-
1992). LeSage (1999) explains that
algorithm MCMC Gibbs sampler will give
convenience estimation parameter for the
spatial Tobit regression model than must
solve amount equality integral to the
maximum likelihood method. Method
MCMC Gibbs sampler aim for look for
score estimation from use something
distribution posterior conditional, where the
value of other assumed has is known.
Distribution posterior from parameter
determined through principle from theorem
Bayes which declared by:
(7)
where is function likelihood of ,
is the marginal distribution of
yang no involve parameter, and is
distribution prior of yang
obtained from previous research
nor based on study theoretical on problem
which currently researched (Casella &
Berger, 2002).
Hastings (1970) develop Metropolis
method for finding estimates parameter
through an initiation value beginning ,
which based on by distribution where is
the candidate ? score
is known. Score from being resurrected
from distribution candidate, then accept as
if .
where and
(8)
Study Previously
Research using the model spatial
Tobit regression in between performed by
Langyintuo and Mekuria (2008) who use
method maximum likelihood for shape
model Tobit SARMA on data farmer in
Mozambique. Kaliba (2002) develop model
Tobit SARMA use module application
Maximum Likelihood 4 from the program
package GAUSS (developed by Aptech
systems, 1995) on data rural in
Tanzania. Temporary LeSage and Pace
(2009) use data simulation which
resurrected by Koop to form model Tobit
spatial use approach Bayesian MCMC (
Markov Chain Monte Carlos ) with
algorithm Gibbs Sampling. As for study
which use model Tobit spatial on data
information and communication technology
(ICT) not yet ever found.
Development ICT something country
have connection which positive with
economic growth . It means, ICT
development will have an effect chain to
increase growth economy (Kominfo, 2010).
Rao and Pattnaik (2006) state that growth
ICT has open opportunity for Public for
more utilise socio-economic development
facilities and culture in a more modern way.
Development ICT has a significant
economic impact large, good by direct nor
no directly, improve welfare and
development facility social economy
(THAT, 2010). Internet access is an
indicator which most represent level
development ICT something country,
besides sector economic
growth
telecommunications, cell phone ownership
or computer mastery.
Using data from 154 countries,
Howard and Mazaheri (2009) found that
gap use ICT (cell phones, computers and
bandwidth internet) is affected by; foreign
investment, trading, amount population,
population urban, literacy rate,
consumption, telephone cable, as well as
nine variable other which explain regulation
government. Andonova and Serrano (2007)
explain that development ICT and growth
utilization Internet more many influenced
by factor attention government and
regulation which apply in region the.
Michailidis et al. disclose that user Internet
in rural Greece is affected by the level
income, price from access Internet,
ownership PC, the place stay, as well as
variable social demographics like; type sex,
amount population young which
Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I | 5
stay one house, age, level education, and
status profession (Michailidis,
Partalidou, Nastis,
Klavdianou, & Charatsari, 2011).
Based on results on study before,
model regression Tobit spatial built in this
research will use algorithm MCMC as
method estimation the parameters. Level
use Internet in district/city in Island Java
used as variable response with variable-
variable predictor as following; percentage
of population living in the area urban areas,
percentage of young population, percentage
of the population graduated from high
school and above, average long school,
percentage house stairs that have a
computer, percentage house ladder which
have phone mobile, and percentage
village/village which get phone signal
mobile.
b. Method Analysis
Source Data and Variable Study
Source data which used in study this
is data processed results Susenas 2010
and Podes 2008 which
collected by Body Center Statistics (BPS).
Spatial weighing matrix
compiled using the queen method
contiguity , i.e. district /city area
which border each other 's territory
will have correlation spatial while
which each other separated no have
correlation. Value if area and
each other border region,
Becomes if no each other border.
As for map digital which used based on
results activity updating map 2010
Population Census.
Object study which made as variable
response is level internet usage in 118
districts/cities on the island of Java, namely
the percentage of the population aged 5
years and over who have ever accessed
internet in the last three months. Sensor
given to region district/city with percentage
population user Internet in on 16 percent
with consider score on value
. The predictor variables that used
is as follows:
 : Percentage residents who stay in statistics test Breusch-Pagan (BP) with
area urban. hypothesis as follows:
: Percentage of young population
(13- 24 year). (homoscedasticity)
: Percentage of population who there is at least one
graduated from SMA on. (heteroscedasticity)
: Average long school.
Score from BP-Test is as following:
: Percentage of households that
have computer. (12)
: Percentage of households that with element vector is
have a cell phone.
: Percentage of villages/kelurahan , where is residual
that get signal phone mobile. observation to the results of linear
regression ,
Model Regression Tobit Spatial
, , is
Model regression Tobit spatial is the matrix of observations with
application of the spatial regression model element column first is vector one, and is
on the censored data. So with combine the number of predictor variables (Breusch
equality (4) to in (1), will obtained & pagan, 1979). rejected if
something model general regression Tobit
.
spatial as following.
__
️y * ️️ I ️W _ 1 X_ Complete Data Censored
 Estimation of regression
model parameters Tobit spatial
i conducted with assumption beginning
1
y   iW  iW_  if y * <  that variable response is data with
i1
 if y * ️
i
complete information ,
 no

(9) Test heteroscedasticity for determine matrix
where is a constant value limitation which using
given to if censored, . Equality

is model general from regression spatial

which Becomes spatial lag when and
Becomes spatial error when , where
with is
multiplier which state heterogeneity from
error variance . On condition
homoscedasticity, matrix becomes
(LeSage, 2000).
When value and ,
equation (9) becomes a Tobit regression
model spatial lag as follows:
(10)
When value and , to be
model Tobit regression spatial error:

(11)
6 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-
 censored, and have correlation spatial.
Whereas in accordance
equality (1), data which
having complete
information is a variable
response which follow
distribution normal
. Score
from when is
an unknown observation
or considered as variable
latent. So that value must
be equipped use a value
. Variable
response that
complete then defined as
follows:

(13)
Complete
observation censored
conducted with method
awaken variable random
which distribute normal
. Value is the element to-
from vector that
used to replace observation

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I | 7

 censored when . According to variable predictor entered to in model, used
LeSage (1999), value average from 3 : Wald's test statistic with hypothesis as
(14) follows:
by value variance from is: :
: ,
(15) Statistics test that used is:
Estimation Parameters (20)
dimana
In accordance with assumption is the result
beginning that variable response is
data with information which complete, no parameter estimate, and
censored and has a spatial .
correlation , then
relationship with variable predictor The decision to refuse was
represented by model regression spatial taken
in accordance with equality (4) in on. when the value or p-value is
LeSage (2000) and Lacombe (2008) more small from value .
formulate distribution conditional
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
posterior of each parameter is
as following: Usage Internet at Island Java
(16) Level use Internet seen from score
percentage population age five year to on
(17)
which once access Internet in in three
month final. Use Internet biggest on year
(18) 2010 could found in city student
Yogyakarta that is as much 36,20 percent,
(19) followed by Jakarta South, Regency
sleman, and city industry Tangerang South,
where , , and
each as much 33.20 percent, 29.52 percent
. and 29.29 percent. Flat- flat use Internet per
Estimate parameter method MCMC district/city in Island Java as big as 12.02
Gibbs sampler conducted with method percent. Region with the value of internet
awaken number random which follows the usage around average is Regency
conditional posterior distribution of each Mojokerto, Bandung, Madison, and City
parameter as many as desired iteration. As Pasuruan. Temporary region with
for the algorithm Metropolis within Gibbs percentage the smallest internet users are in
used on form distribution posterior which the Regency Lacquer and bangkalan, each
no standard, that is for parameter or as big as 2.23 percent and 2.54 percent.
parameters (LeSage, 2000). For
determine worthy or whether or not
something

3
Information score average and variance from
8 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-
variable random this latent explained also in
LeSage
(2000) as well as LeSage and Pace (2009).

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I | 9

 Figure 2. Use Internet County/City in Island Java Year 2010
Map thematic use Internet on Picture
2 show that high category internet usage a
lot there is on region urban like DKI Jakarta
and its surroundings, the row of Yogyakarta
towards Surakarta, as well as the Bandung
area, Semarang, Surabaya and
surroundings. High internet usage in cities
center for students, industry, and business
then followed by region other in
surroundings. Region which touch direct
with cities the have a high percentage of
internet users a little more low, temporary
region the next that intersects indirectly
immediately has a lower value again.
For modeling regression Tobit spatial,
percentage value of internet users from 34
district/city considered no is known. They
is region with level use Internet which more
big of 16 percent, that is, as the minimum
limit percentage user Internet which want to
achieved by something district/city. Score-
10 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-
value of the level of internet usage that is
not is known the considered same with 16
percent, so that obtained variable
percentage of internet users as data
censored. Thing this in accordance with
draft on equality (1) on.
Descriptive data level use Internet as
variable response which censored could
seen on Table 1 in lower this. Score
maximum from percentage Internet users
per district/city are the same with 16
percent, with average and each standard
deviation of 9.97 percent and 4.63. Variable
which have variation score biggest is
percentage urban population with standard
deviation of 30.84 and the length of the data
range from 9.27 percent until 100 percent.
Variable average long school have variation
smallest with standard deviation as big as
1.52. That's because the unit of the variable
in size year, temporary variable other in
percentage units.
 Table 1. Descriptive Variable Study
Variable Flat- Standar
Descripti Minimum Maximum
Research flat d
on
Deviati
on
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Percentage user Internet 2.23 16.00 9,968 4,626

Percentage population urban 9.27 100.00 57,991 30,837
Percentage population age young 12.44 25.00 17,395 2,567
Percentage population high school graduate to 5.30 50.26 21.349 11.105
on
Average long school 4.21 11.55 8.052 1.518
Percentage of households that
2.20 40.22 11,433 9,127
have computer
Percentage house ladder have phone mobile
44.87 94.89 71,923 12,050
Percentage village/village get signal phone
50.00 100.00 88,892 10,026

Modeling regression linear multiple existence condition multicollinearity

with method ordinary at least squared
(OLS) conducted for explain the
relationship between the predictor variables
on the level of internet usage in Java. On
degrees trust 95 percent, results test
parameter only produce two from seven
influential predictor variables to variable
response. Score variance inflation factor
(VIF) which very tall on variable and
indicates
between predictor variable. Even though it
produces model which fit with score
coefficient determination which very tall,
model regression linear multiple which
obtained not appropriate to use as a basis
analysis. This is because it is not fulfilled
assumption of non multicollinearity and the
number of information from variable
predictor which wasted.

Table 2. Linear Regression Model multiple and Score Variance Inflation Factor
(VIF)

Parameter Coefficie Test Parameter Statistics

nt VIF
Statistics p-Value
Test t
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

-13,729 -4,158 0.000 –

0,022 1,960 0,053 5,705
-0,022 -0,298 0,766 1,701
0,107 1,585 0,116 27,368
0,797 1,936 0,055 18,952
-0,026 -0,531 0,597 9,827
0,083 2,671 0,009 6,872
0,094 4,582 0,000 2,072

Analysis of Variance (test ) – 132.47 0.000 –

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I |

 Coefficient Determination ( 0.894 – – –
)

10 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-

 According to Gujarati (2004), one one by one variable which no take
condition multicollinearity could handled effect by real (Draper & Smith, 1998).
with method To do election variable, good Results test effect correlation spatial
by adding a new predictor variable nor with and heteroscedasticity show that form
reduce which already there is. Another way model which will formed is regression
that can be done is by using another model Tobit spatial lag in condition
that is more suitable for explaining the homoscedasticity. Use hypothesis
relationship between predictor variable of , score statistics test LM-lag show
response. Model Spatial Tobit regression is conclusion for reject on degrees trust
more appropriate for explain factors which 95 percent. Temporary score statistics test
influence tall as well as diversity low use LM-err show that
Internet between district/city in Island Java failed rejected
which influenced by spatial by area- area on value . As for
surrounding. results test heteroscedasticity which use
Modeling Regression Tobit Spatial Breusch Pagan test statistics conclude not to
reject the hypothesis : homoscedasticity
Based on equality (9) in on, model on degrees trust
regression Tobit spatial for use Internet 95 percent. Condition the apply on every
district/city in Island Java is asT following: stages formation model use method

  w T y   w T y  W T W
 y
backward elimination .
Parameter estimation is done by more
 i formerly awaken amount
y   xT _ b  
 +
w
_ T
Xβ i if y < 16 figures random , at where value
i  i i I am
 when used to replace data which
  16 grandson yes censored. Algorithm MCMC used on data
yes  16 which has complete
(21)
Spatial Tobit modeling is done with more for estimation parameter model
formerly test effect correlation spatial and regression Tobit spatial lag, that is Gibbs
heteroscedasticity, to determine form sampler for estimation and as well
correlation spatial which there is as well as as Metropolis within Gibbs for
condition heteroscedasticity which will estimation . Score used
taken into account in algorithm MCMC. because condition homoscedasticity
Method backward elimination conducted fulfilled . Variable elimination
for produce model regression Tobit spatial decided based on p-value from
best with method abort statistics test Wald which more big than
score .

Table 3. Testing the Effect of Spatial Correlation, Heteroscedasticity, and Parameter Estimation
Results for Modeling Regression Tobit Spatial use Method Backward Elimination

Test Stage I (7 Variables) Stage II (6 Variables) Phase III (5 Variables)

Statistics / Nilai p-value Nilai p-value Nilai p-value
Parameter
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
LM-lag 12,1942 0,0000 12,2410 0,0000 11,8122 0,0000
LM-err 1,5595 0.2117 1,5765 0.2093 1,4396 0.2302
Breusch Pagan 9,7859 0,2010 9,4602 0,1493 7,9076 0,1614
-0,1662 0,0000 -0,1693 0,0000 -0.1700 0,0000
-13,9281 0,0000 -13,8073 0,0000 -13,7268 0,0000
0,0115 0,0000 0,0122 0,0000 0,0117 0,0000
0,0107 0,2779

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I |

 0,1549 0,0000 0,1529 0,0000 0,1435 0,0000

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 0,7565 0,0000 0,7574 0,0000 0,7548 0,0000
-0,0143 0,2102 -0,0139 0,2067
0,0918 0,0000 0,0929 0,0000 0,0931 0,0000
0,0831 0,0000 0,0828 0,0000 0,0827 0,0000
1,9561 – 1,9671 – 1.9580 –
0,8420 – 0,8403 – 0.8394 –

The predictor variable excluded from normal, so it can be concluded that

model is (percentage of population aged assumption normality from error model
young) and (percentage house ladder actually fulfilled. Next assumption related
who owns a computer). At the final stage to the problem of homogeneous error
backward elimination obtained five variance deemed to have been met,
variable predictor which by real influence considering the results test Breusch Pagan
diversity use Internet in Island Java. Based previously which shows that the conditions
on equality (21) and results estimation are not met heteroscedasticity as well as
parameter presented in table 3 above, the process simulation MCMC which based on
model regression Tobit spatial lag which by condition homoscedasticity. As for
formed is: assumption no the presence of
autocorrelation in the error has also been
 n fulfilled,
bukanlah because modelregression
fashion model which formed
Tobit spasial error.
13 , _ 727 0.17 we y y y 0, 012 x 1 i
y j1,ji_ Interpretation Model
i   0.144 x . 0, 755 x + 0, 093 x + 0, 083 x
 16
3i 4i 6i 7i
Equality (22) in on explain
; y i<
16 _ ; y i ️16
 that for districts/cities with
(22 percentage user Internet which not
) enough
Model this used for explain residual used for test assumption normality of the
factors and the surrounding area that affect error model. Residual plot seen is at in around line
the level of internet usage in something probability
district/city, when value less than 16
percent. As for districts/cities with level of
use high internet is considered a benchmark
measuring development ICT which want to
achieved.
Probability Plot of Residual
Normal
99,9
Mean1,207
StDev1,392
99
N118
KS0,052
95 P-Value >0,150
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5

0,1 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Residual

Figure 3. Normal Probability Plot Graph of

Residual Spatial Tobit Regression
Model lag

Chart plot probability normal from

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I |
 of 16 percent, internet usage rate in
the region is influenced by the
region other in surrounding as well
as variables as following:
 Percentage population which
stay in urban ( ). If variable
other
considered constant, so every
increase percentage population
which stay in urban as big as
one percent will result in
increase percentage user
Internet as big as 0.012
percent.
 Percentage of population
graduating from high school
on ( ). If variable other
considered constant, so every
increase percentage of
population graduating from
high school on as big as one
percent will result in increase
percentage user Internet as big
as 0.144 percent.
 Average old school ( ). When
variable other considered
constant, so every increase in
the average length of school
for one year will result in
increase use Internet
something district/city as big
as 0.755 percent.

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 Percentage house ladder which have
phone handheld ( ). If variable
other considered constant, so every
increase in the percentage of
households that have a cell phone as
big as one percent will result in
increase percentage user Internet as big
as 0.093 percent.
 Percentage village/village which get
signal phone mobile ( ).
If the other variables are held constant,
so every increase percentage
village/village which get signal cell
phones by one percent will cause
increase use Internet by 0.083 percent.
Score coefficient determination show
that as big as 83.94 percent variations in
internet usage in Java explained by five
variable predictor in model, the rest by
variable other. The effect of spatial lag
from other areas is intersect the area can be
seen on model regression Tobit spatial lag
each each district/city, that is model
when . As for for district/city
with category use high internet, then the
percentage value population aged 5 years
and over who have ever access Internet in
three month final considered same with 16
percent or when . use in City Jakarta North and Regency
Percentage of population living in
urban indicates level progress and
completeness of public facilities in area the.
As for percentage population graduate of
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL to on and
average long school reflect quality source
power man in area the. Thus, increasing the
percentage Internet users can be done
through effort enhancement quality source
power human from the aspect of education.
Besides that, construction of public
facilities in rural areas can also encourage
level use Internet in district/city.
Variable characteristics device and
network in area indicates importance
development technology phone mobile for
growth Internet. Various
the ease of internet access provided through
device phone handheld and breadth network
phone mobile has by real push enhancement
level use Internet. In side other, use Internet
it turns out no by real accessed through
computer or dominated by population age
young. Internet could accessed by anybody
and through media whatever, especially
phone mobile.
Besides influenced by fifth the above
variables, the level of internet usage
district/city in Island Java also influenced
by area other which touch region. As
example, the level of internet usage in the
District The Thousand Islands can be
explained through model Tobit regression
spatial lag the following:
(23)
where
is the predictor variable
vector of Island one thousand
dan
is vector parameter. Level use Internet in
Island One thousand influenced by internet
Tangerang. If variable other considered
constant, so use Internet in Island One
thousand is as big as -0.085 time from
combined use Internet in Tangerang ( ) and
City Jakarta North (
). By details, each 84 Tobit regression
model spatial lag when the value of
percentage of internet users less than 16
percent can be seen on attachment.
CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION
Model regression Tobit spatial is a
spatial regression model that applied on
data censored, with form model general
from regression Tobit spatial is:
Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I |
 
  wT y   w T y  W T W T
 Development of Telecommunications.
y

+

y   xTi _ b   i w T Xb i
jika y < 
i  i i i
i
 Methods and Models. Dordrecht:
jika yi  

(24)

Method estimation parameter which
could used is Markov Chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) which be equipped with
algorithm Gibbs sampler and Metropolis
within Gibbs . Method this more put
forward computational simulation
techniques for awaken amount big random
variables using the approach Bayesian
inference.
Using internet usage on the Island Java as a
case study, it is known that model
regression Tobit Spatial lag produce
information which more rich than model
regression linear multiple. Factors which
influence use Internet district/city in Island
Java is percentage population which stay in
area urban, percentage population graduate
of SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL to on, average
long school, percentage house ladder which
own a mobile phone, and the percentage
village/village which get signal phone
mobile. Besides influenced by fifth variable
the, level use Internet district/city in Island
Java also influenced by area other which
touch region.
Based on results study which has
been obtained, further development could
conducted with use highest posterior
density (HPD) and Bayes Factor as
parameter testing method and model. Study
this still use matrix weigher queen
contiguity , so that on study next could
developed use matrix weigher other for
example distance. More carry on, method
MCMC Gibbs sampler for modeling
regression Tobit spatial this could used for
data and case other which more applicable.
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ATTACHMENT
Model regression Spatial Tobit lag for 84 district/city with score :
1. Kepulauan :
Seribu
2. Bogor :

3. Sukabumi :
4. Cianjur :
14
5. | Bandung
Jurnal Aplikasi
: Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-
6. Garut :
7. Tasikmala :
ya
8. Ciamis :
9. Kuningan :
10 Cirebon :
.
11 Majalengk :
. a
12 Sumedang :
.
13 Indramayu :
.
14 Subang :
.
15 Purwakart :
. a
16 Karawang :
.
17 Bandung :
. Barat
18 Kota :
. Banjar
19 Cilacap :
.
20 Banyumas :
.
21 Purbaling :
. ga
22 Banjarneg :
. ara
23 Kebumen :
.
24 Purworejo :
.
25 Wonosobo :
.
26 Magelang :
.
27 Boyolali :
.
28 Klaten :
.
29 Wonogiri :
.
30 Karangan :
. yar
31 Sragen :
.
32 Grobogan :
.

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I |

33 Blora :
.
34 Rembang :
.
35 Starch :
.
36 Holy :
.
37 Japan :
.
38 Demak :
.
39 Semarang :
.
40 friend ng :
.
41 Kendal :
.
42 stem :
.
43 Pekalonga :
. nn
44 Malang :
.
45 Tegal :
.
46 Brebes :
.
47 City :
. Pekalonga
nn
48 City :
. Tegal
49 West :
. Progo
50 Mounta :
. in
South
51 Pacitan :
.
52 Ponorogo :
.
53 Trengale :
. k
54 Help me :
. no
55 Blitar :
.
56 Kediri :
.

16 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-

57 Poor :
.

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I |

 58 Lumajang :
.
59 Jember :
.
60 Banyuwan :
. gi gi
61 Bondowos :
. o
62 Situbondo :
.
63 Proboling :
. go
64 Pasuruan :
.
65 Sidoarjo :
.
66 Mojokerto :
.
67 Jombang :
.
68 Nganjuk :
.
69 Madison :
.
70 Magetan :
.
71 Ngawi :
.
72 Bojonegor :
. o
73 Tuban :
.
74 Lamongan :
.
75 Gresik :
.
76 Bangkalan :
.
77 Sampang :
.
78 Power n :
.
79 Sumenep :
.
80 City :
. Pasuruan
81 Pandeglan :
. g
82 Lebak :
.

18 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-

Analisis Regresi Tobit Spasial…./Mustari AS, Zain I |
83 Tangerang :
.
84 attack :
.

20 | Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik V.9.1.2017, ISSN 2086-