Professional Documents
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TISCO reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt1.77bn, up 13.5% YoY and down 4.2% QoQ, which Equity
is in line with our forecast. Loan growth of 4.2% YoY is primarily from corporate (project
financing for utility and property firms) and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME)
Key Changes
loans (primarily for car inventory). A decrease in the provision ratio is the main reason
for the earnings increase YoY. Net profit fell QoQ due to a loss on investment of (Bt) Previous Current
Bt107mn (vs. 2Q22 gain of Bt176mn) and higher operating expenses. 2022E EPS 7.89 8.73
2023E EPS 7.61 7.65
Funding cost and credit costs have begun to rise 2024E EPS 8.14 8.12
Funding costs have risen for the second time in two quarters after falling in the previous
ten quarters. With the high interest rate environment, management expects funding Therapong Vachirapong ^^^
costs to rise gradually over the next few years, so it is shifting its focus to high-yield Research Analyst
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities
loans to mitigate the spread decline. It believes the spread will gradually decrease over +66 2 305 9207
therapong.vach@kkpfg.com
the next two years but will rise in the third year as high-yield loans improve the spread.
Bay Tuntisrisuk, CFA ^^^
We believe that this strategy will increase credit costs and non-performing loans (NPL) Research Analyst
which will offset future spread increases. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities
+66 2 305 9203
bay.tunt@kkpfg.com
Raising 2022E earnings while maintaining 2023E-24E
We are raising our earnings forecasts by 11% for 2022 but maintaining 2023E-24E due
to a lower provision mark-to-actual revision, but the headwind trend remains unchanged.
We expect 2022E net interest margin (NIM) to be 4.98%, down from 5.12% in 3Q22, but Stock Data
flat from 4.97% in 9M22, due to TISCO’s high proportion of retail loans (72% of total Price 93.75 THB
loans and mostly fixed rate), so a deposit rate increase of 20bps on 4 October will have Price Objective 74.00 THB
a negative impact on TISCO. We believe TISCO will face headwinds in the coming years Date Established 19-Jan-2022
as credit costs rise because of its high-yield loan strategy and negative re-pricing Investment Opinion A-3-8
effects as interest rates rise. We reiterate our Underperform rating. 52-Week Range 86.00 THB-101.50 THB
Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 1,963 USD / 800.7
Estimates (Dec) (Bt) 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Market Value (mn) 75,061 THB
Net Income (Adjusted - mn) 6,063 6,785 6,989 6,123 6,505
Average Daily Value (mn) 7.94 USD
EPS 7.57 8.47 8.73 7.65 8.12
EPS Change (YoY) -16.6% 11.9% 3.0% -12.4% 6.2% Free Float 79.1%
Dividend / Share 6.30 7.15 6.11 4.59 4.87 BofA Ticker / Exchange THVSF / SET
Pre-exceptional EPS 7.57 8.47 8.73 7.65 8.12 Bloomberg / Reuters TISCO TB / TISCO.BK
Pre-exceptional EPS Change (YoY) -16.6% 11.9% 3.0% -12.4% 6.2% ROE (2022E) 16.5%
Book Value / Share 49.29 51.46 54.07 57.13 60.38
Valuation (Dec)
P/E 12.4x 11.1x 10.7x 12.3x 11.5x
Dividend Yield 6.72% 7.63% 6.52% 4.89% 5.20%
Pre-exceptional PE 12.38x 11.06x 10.74x 12.26x 11.54x
Price / Book 1.90x 1.82x 1.73x 1.64x 1.55x
RoE / PB 8.11x 9.23x 9.54x 8.38x 8.91x
Price / Pre-Provision Profit 6.89x 7.11x 8.05x 8.31x 7.86x
Issued by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("KKPS") and distributed locally by
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities, under a Research Co-Operation Agreement with Merrill Lynch.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its
research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conf lict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Analyst Certification on page 6. Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 6. 12471161
SM
iQprofile
Key Income Statement Data (Dec) 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Company Sector
(Bt Millions) Financial Services-Consumer/Commercial
Net Interest Income 13,098 12,460 12,461 10,978 11,091
Net Fee Income 5,460 6,130 5,517 6,676 7,010
Securities Gains / (Losses) 269.86 410.11 53.21 0 0
Company Description
Other Income 331.44 281.01 283.82 286.65 289.52
Total Non-Interest Income 6,061 6,821 5,854 6,963 7,299 TISCO Bank (formerly TISCO Finance) provides a full range
Total Operating Income 19,159 19,281 18,315 17,940 18,390 of financial services including corporate loans, housing
Operating Expenses (8,325) (8,794) (9,063) (8,987) (8,919) loans, auto loans, financial advisory, and funding. TISCO's
Pre-Provision Profit 10,833 10,487 9,252 8,954 9,471 four key markets are: securities, hire-purchase (HP) loans,
Provisions Expense (3,331) (2,064) (623.46) (1,403) (1,445)
asset management/debt services, & corporate/retail
Operating Profit 7,503 8,423 8,628 7,550 8,026
Non-Operating Income NA NA NA NA NA finance. Concerns: TISCO may face a difficult operating
Pre-Tax Income 7,562 8,493 8,705 7,627 8,103 environment, including narrowing interest spread and
Net Income to Comm S/Hold. 6,063 6,785 6,989 6,123 6,505 slower HP loan growth. No ADRs.
Adjusted Net Income (Operating) 6,063 6,785 6,989 6,123 6,505
Key Balance Sheet Data
Total Assets 275,443 243,622 256,850 266,024 275,363 Investment Rationale
Average Interest Earning Assets 287,549 260,518 250,257 259,781 267,745 TISCO's consumer loan portfolio should be significantly hit
Weighted Risk Assets 167,948 163,661 173,816 179,197 184,745 by rising unemployment. The expected revenue losses and
Total Gross Customer Loans 226,714 204,662 214,486 220,921 227,548
higher credit cost would lower dividend yield on the stock,
Total Customer Deposits 203,473 166,542 176,534 182,007 187,467
Tier 1 Capital 30,399 30,488 32,037 33,850 35,775 which had been the key support for the share price
Tangible Equity 39,459 41,197 43,294 45,743 48,345 performance against a negative growth.
Common Shareholders' Equity 39,459 41,197 43,294 45,743 48,345
Key Metrics
Net Interest Margin 4.55% 4.78% 4.98% 4.23% 4.14%
Tier 1 Ratio 18.1% 18.6% 18.4% 18.9% 19.4%
Effective Tax Rate 19.8% 20.1% 19.7% 19.7% 19.7%
Loan / Assets Ratio 78.0% 79.2% 79.5% 79.5% 79.5% Stock Data
Loan / Deposit Ratio 105.6% 115.8% 115.7% 116.2% 116.8%
Price to Book Value 1.7x
Oper Leverage (Inc Growth - Cost Growth) 12.5% -5.0% -8.1% -1.2% 3.3%
Gearing (Assets / Equity) 7.0x 5.9x 5.9x 5.8x 5.7x
Tangible Common Equity / Assets 14.3% 16.9% 16.9% 17.2% 17.6%
Tangible Common Equity / WRAs 23.5% 25.2% 24.9% 25.5% 26.2%
Revenue Growth -0.7% 0.6% -5.0% -2.0% 2.5%
Operating Expense Growth -13.2% 5.6% 3.1% -0.8% -0.8%
Provisions Expense Growth 371.8% -38.0% -69.8% 125.1% 3.0%
Operating Revenue / Average Assets 6.7% 7.4% 7.3% 6.9% 6.8%
Operating Expenses / Average Assets 2.9% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%
Pre-Provision ROA 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 3.5%
ROA 2.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.4%
Pre-Provision ROE 27.5% 26.0% 21.9% 20.1% 20.1%
ROE 15.4% 16.8% 16.5% 13.8% 13.8%
RoTE 15.4% 16.5% 16.1% 13.4% 13.5%
RoWRAs 3.6% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5%
Dividend Payout Ratio 83.2% 84.4% 70.0% 60.0% 60.0%
Efficiency Ratio 44.1% 46.6% 49.6% 50.1% 48.5%
Headline Cost/Income Ratio 43.5% 45.6% 49.5% 50.1% 48.5%
Total Non-Interest Inc / Operating Inc 32% 35% 32% 39% 40%
Market-Related Revenue / Total Revenues 1.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0% 0%
Provisioning Burden as % of PPP 30.7% 19.7% 6.7% 15.7% 15.3%
NPLs plus Foreclosed Real Estate / Loans 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%
Loan Loss Reserves / NPLs 210.5% 236.8% 202.1% 180.7% 160.0%
Loan Loss Reserves / Total Loans 5.5% 6.1% 5.0% 4.5% 3.9%
Provisions Expense / Average Loans 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7%
Other Metrics
Income / Employee 3.40 3.06 2.59 2.27 NA
(Operating Expenses) / Employee 3.40 3.06 2.59 2.27 NA
Pre-Provision Profit / Employee 1.92 1.66 1.31 1.13 NA
Net Profit / Employee 1.08 1.08 0.989 0.774 NA
iQprofile is a proprietary set of measures definitions of Merrill Lynch, which Phatra is permitted to use in this report purs uant to a Research
Co-Operation Agreement with Merrill Lynch.
Exhibit 2:
Strong loan growth YoY
(Bt mn) 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 % QoQ % YoY
Assets 244,635 243,622 246,449 244,722 255,939
Investment in securities 13,143 10,124 10,527 9,246 8,322
Liquid assets 42,083 42,526 44,960 43,669 44,498
Hire purchase loans 114,511 112,400 111,432 109,173 109,076 -0.1% -4.7%
Loans 206,228 204,662 205,211 204,975 214,886 4.8% 4.2%
Total allowance (11,975) (11,740) (11,497) (11,298) (11,015) -2.5% -8.0%
Net loan and accrued interest 194,253 192,922 193,713 193,677 203,872 5.3% 5.0%
Non-earning assets 8,299 8,174 7,776 7,377 7,569 2.6% -8.8%
Total liabilities 205,224 202,422 203,450 205,472 214,915 4.6% 4.7%
Borrowings from public 168,813 166,542 171,435 168,879 182,540 8.1% 8.1%
Total borrowings 192,291 189,859 190,703 193,135 202,403 4.8% 5.3%
Equity 39,410 41,200 42,999 39,251 41,023 4.5% 4.1%
BV/S (Bt) 49.22 51.46 53.70 49.02 51.24
Source: TISCO
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 3: s
Provision ratio remains low
3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 QoQ (bps) YoY (bps)
HP yield 6.18% 6.41% 6.45% 6.45% 6.45% -1bps +27bps
Loan yield 7.72% 7.75% 7.43% 7.64% 7.83% +19bps +10bps
Asset yield 5.78% 5.88% 5.76% 5.84% 5.97% +13bps +19bps
Deposit cost 1.11% 1.07% 1.04% 1.06% 1.09% +2bps -3bps
NIM 4.90% 4.82% 4.96% 5.02% 5.12% +11bps +22bps
Cost-to-income ratio 47.11% 44.94% 47.50% 46.55% 48.13%
RoA 2.43% 2.94% 2.93% 3.03% 2.84%
RoE 15.48% 17.81% 17.06% 18.38% 17.23%
NPL ratio 2.98% 2.44% 2.15% 2.20% 2.08%
Coverage ratio 196.5% 236.8% 262.1% 253.1% 248.0%
Tier-1 ratio 18.3% 18.3% 18.4% 18.3% 17.6%
CAR ratio 22.9% 22.9% 22.4% 22.2% 21.4%
Loan/deposit 106.3% 106.9% 106.7% 105.3% 105.3%
Liquid asset/asset 17.20% 17.46% 18.24% 17.84% 17.39%
Liquid asset/deposit 25% 26% 26% 26% 24%
Provisioning ratio 0.51% 0.82% 0.17% 0.28% 0.23%
Source: TISCO
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 6: TISCO Hire purchase (HP) loan growth Exhibit 7: TISCO Cost to income
HP loans are still declining Cost to income is rising
55%
40%
30% 50%
20%
45%
10%
40%
0%
-10% 35%
-20% 30%
1Q10 2Q11 3Q12 4Q13 1Q15 2Q16 3Q17 4Q18 1Q20 2Q21 3Q22 1Q10 2Q11 3Q12 4Q13 1Q15 2Q16 3Q17 4Q18 1Q20 2Q21 3Q22
Source: TISCO, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Source: TISCO, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
NIM
2.0%
1.5% 4%
3%
1.0% 5%
0.5%
2% 6%
0.0%
1Q02
2Q03
3Q04
4Q05
1Q07
2Q08
3Q09
4Q10
1Q12
2Q13
3Q14
4Q15
1Q17
2Q18
3Q19
4Q20
1Q22
1Q10 2Q11 3Q12 4Q13 1Q15 2Q16 3Q17 4Q18 1Q20 2Q21 3Q22
Source: TISCO, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Source: TISCO, BoT, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 10: TISCO Provisioning ratio Exhibit 11: TISCO - Pre-provision profit RoE
Provisioning ratio is low Pre-provision profit RoE continues to fall
3.0%
2.5% 50%
2.0%
1.5%
30%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 10%
2Q02 2Q05 2Q08 2Q11 2Q14 2Q17 2Q20 1Q10 2Q11 3Q12 4Q13 1Q15 2Q16 3Q17 4Q18 1Q20 2Q21 3Q22
Source: TISCO, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Source: TISCO, Kiatnakin Phatra Securities
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Upside risks are : 1) lower and longer low interest rates and 2) unexpected renewed
credit growth.
Downside risks are higher interest rates and higher-than-expected credit cost from the
new asset financing business.
Analyst Certification
I, Therapong Vachirapong, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also
certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.
Special Disclosures
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its
research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict
of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("KKPS") under its proprietary
trading desk, may, from time to time, issue derivative warrants that have underlying
securities contained or mentioned in this research report. Should KKPS be the issuer of
the derivative warrants, KKPS may act as the market maker for such derivative warrants.
As a result, investors should be aware that KKPS may have a conflict of interest that
could affect the objectivity of this research report.
The Investment Opinion System is contained at the end of the report under the heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key". Dark grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Medium grey
shading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Light grey shading indicates the security is not covered. Chart is current as of a date no more than one trading day prior to the date of the
report.
Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Financial Services Group (as of 30 Sep 2022)
Coverage Universe Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships R1 Count Percent
Buy 158 57.25% Buy 104 65.82%
Hold 63 22.83% Hold 42 66.67%
Sell 55 19.93% Sell 35 63.64%
Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group (as of 30 Sep 2022)
Coverage Universe Count Percent Inv. Banking Relationships R1 Count Percent
Buy 1839 53.46% Buy 1071 58.24%
Hold 800 23.26% Hold 498 62.25%
Sell 801 23.28% Sell 379 47.32%
R1
Issuers that were investment banking clients of BofA Securities or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. For purposes of this Investment Rating Distribution, the coverage universe includes only stocks. A stock
rated Neutral is included as a Hold, and a stock rated Underperform is included as a Sell.
FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators
of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst’s assessment of both a stock’s: absolute total return
potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). There are three investment ratings: 1 - Buy
stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat
or increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. Analysts assign
investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm’s guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in
the table below). The current price objective for a stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective
reflects the analyst’s view of the potential price appreciation (depreciation).
Investment rating Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR2
rating)
Buy ≥ 10% ≤ 70%
Neutral ≥ 0% ≤ 30%
Underperform N/A ≥ 20%
R2
Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.
INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be
secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry,
sector, region or other classification(s). A stock’s coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock.
DW Disclosure:
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("KKPS") under its proprietary trading desk, may, from time to time, issue derivative warrants that
have underlying securities contained in the table below. Should KKPS be the issuer of the derivative warrants, KKPS may act as the market maker for
such derivative warrants. As a result, investors should be aware that KKPS may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
research report.
ACE ADVANC AOT BAM BANPU BBL BCH BCPG BDMS BEC BGRIM BH BJC
BLA CBG CENTEL CHG CK COM7 CPALL CPF CPN CRC DELTA DOHOME DTAC
EPG ESSO GLOBAL GPSC GULF GUNKUL HANA INTUCH IRPC IVL JAS JMART JMT
KBANK KCE KTC MEGA MINT OR OSP PLANB PRM PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC
RBF RS SET50 SAWAD SCB SCC SCGP SPALI SPRC STA STEC STGT TASCO
THANI TOP TRUE TTB TU VGI WHA