[TA: Trương Đức Duy Khang]

PRACTICE EXERCISES #4 SOLUTION

Question 1:
We denote that:
A: The probability that the fire engine is available (𝑃(𝐴) = 0.98)
B: The probability that the ambulance is available (𝑃(𝐵) = 0.92)
Since the fire engine and the ambulance operate independently, we obtain:
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.98 × 0.92 = 0.9016
Question 2:
Data:
𝑃(𝑃1 ) = 30% = 0.30
𝑃(𝑃2 ) = 20% = 0.20
𝑃(𝑃3 ) = 50% = 0.50
𝑃(𝐷 |𝑃1 ) = 0.01
𝑃(𝐷 |𝑃2 ) = 0.03
𝑃(𝐷 |𝑃3 ) = 0.02
We have:
𝑃(𝐷𝑃1 ) = 𝑃(𝑃1 ) × 𝑃(𝐷 |𝑃1 ) = 0.30 × 0.01 = 0.003
𝑃(𝐷𝑃2 ) = 𝑃(𝑃2 ) × 𝑃(𝐷 |𝑃2 ) = 0.20 × 0.03 = 0.006
𝑃(𝐷𝑃3 ) = 𝑃(𝑃3 ) × 𝑃(𝐷 |𝑃3 ) = 0.50 × 0.02 = 0.010
Therefore, by applying the total probability law, we obtain:
𝑃(𝐷 ) = 𝑃(𝐷𝑃1 ) + 𝑃(𝐷𝑃2 ) + 𝑃(𝐷𝑃3 ) = 0.003 + 0.006 + 0.010 = 0.019
Question 3:
Data:
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 0.40
𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 0.60
𝑃(𝐴1 𝐴2 ) = 0
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1 ) = 0.20
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴2 ) = 0.05
[TA: Trương Đức Duy Khang]

By applying the conditional probability, we have:

𝑃(𝐴1 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1 ) = ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴1 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴1 ) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1 ) = 0.40 × 0.20 = 0.08
𝑃(𝐴1 )
𝑃(𝐴2 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴2 ) = ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴2 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴2 ) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴2 ) = 0.60 × 0.05 = 0.03
𝑃(𝐴2 )
By applying the total probability law, we have:
𝑃(𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐴1 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴2 𝐵) = 0.08 + 0.03 = 0.11
Therefore, by applying the Bayes' theorem, we obtain the result:
𝑃(𝐴1 ) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴1 ) 0.40 × 0.20
𝑃(𝐴1 |𝐵) = = = 0.73
𝑃(𝐵) 0.11