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Cities: Drivers of risk or resilience? MEDIA CONTACTS

Janine Kandel
ARTICLE Head of Communications
Tel: + 49-228-815-0219
2015•09•21 Email: kandel@vie.unu.edu

By Matthias Garschagen
Nadine Hoffmann
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Communication Associate
Tel: + 49-228-815-0284
Email: hoffmann@vie.unu.edu

This article is part of UNU’s “17 Days, 17 Goals (http://unu.edu/globalgoals)”

series, featuring research and commentary in support of the United Nations
Sustainable Development Summit, 25-27 September 2015 in New York City.

Goal #11: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and
sustainable

In 1950 two-thirds of the world’s population lived in rural areas, while one-third
lived in urban areas. By 2050, that proportion will be reversed. It is forecast
that by mid-century, cities will be home to some 6.3 billion people – a
staggering 2.4 billion more urban inhabitants than today.

This urban growth will not be spread evenly throughout the world; most of it
will occur in Africa and Asia. Across these continents, urban populations will
rise by 860 million and 1.2 billion, respectively, according to UN forecasts.

Sustainable development goal #11 aspires to “make cities and human

settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable”. One of its targets is to
protect those in vulnerable situations (natural hazards and disasters). If this
target is to be achieved, decision makers will need to consider the question:
Does urbanisation make people more, or less, vulnerable to the impacts of
extreme weather?
When mega-trends collide
Two ongoing mega-trends — rapid urbanisation and climate change — will
shape how city-dwellers around the world experience natural hazards. They
place a particular focus on how developing countries and emerging
economies, such as those in Africa, Asia and Latin America, will cope, because
these regions are not only expected to experience rapid urbanisation, but also
are likely bear the brunt of climate change impacts.

In Asia, for example, more than 18% of the urban population lives in low-lying
coastal areas, often less than 10 metres above sea level.
(http://eau.sagepub.com/content/19/1/17)Dense, low-lying areas such as Ho Chi
Minh City, Mumbai, and Jakarta are vulnerable not only to sea-level rise but
also to flooding and cyclones. And in many rapidly growing cities, labor
migrants and other low-income groups are particularly vulnerable, as they tend
to settle in dangerous and exposed areas, such as on the steep, landslide-
prone slopes of Rio de Janeiro or in slums along the flood-prone banks of
rivers and canals in Mumbai or Lagos.

Although urbanisation poses challenges, it also offers opportunities when it

comes to disaster risk management. Urbanisation can increase disaster risk
but also improve risk reduction.

To fully grasp how urbanisation affects human vulnerability to natural hazards,

we need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. We need to
consider how urbanisation affects such key components of risk as including
susceptibility, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity.

Can urbanisation decrease the impact of natural

hazards?
A city’s marginalised residents typically are most susceptible to natural
hazards. For example, many labor migrants in Dhaka or Manila live in
improvised housing structures in highly exposed locations, which are more
likely to be damaged by flooding and storms, and have restricted access to
social goods and services (such as sanitation infrastructure, clean drinking
water, and health care facilities).

Yet urbanization also opens up a number of options to mitigate susceptibility.

Cities are central drivers of economic growth, and can enable a rise in income
both for the economy as a whole and for individuals. This income can be
reinvested into reducing susceptibility, for example by improving housing
infrastructure and the availability of sanitation and health care.

Enhanced coping and adaptive strategies

The pressure of rapid urbanisation can limit governments’ ability to build and
operate essential infrastructure such as healthcare and disaster response. But
urbanisation can also strengthen coping capacities. The high density of
buildings and other infrastructure in cities means that protective structures
such as dykes can be implemented and operated more efficiently. And by
concentrating large numbers of people, cities can put them in direct reach of
disaster facilities such as ambulances or fire brigades. And by boosting income
levels, cities can improve individual as well as general coping capacities.

Yet key factors that improve adaptive capacity — such as investment,

educational standards, and public participation — often are lacking in many
cities in developing countries and emerging economies. At the same time,
exposed cities such as Jakarta and Lagos have high levels of capital,
innovation, and political attention. These metropolises thus have the potential
to play a pioneering role in developing and implementing effective adaptation
measures.

Urbanisation offers opportunities

For goal #11 to succeed, decision-makers in individual countries and cities will
need to understand the multi-facetted and often-contradictory relationship
between urbanisation and natural hazard risk. In this context, it is crucial to
harness the opportunities urbanisation presents.

Whether this can and will be done ultimately depends on how countries
implement risk management policies. For example, cities must ensure that
urban sprawl does not expand into high-exposure or highly vulnerable areas.

The interactions between exposure to natural hazards with susceptibility, and

coping and adaptive capacities, also point to an urgent need to interlink
disaster relief, disaster risk reduction, and development strategies. If new
infrastructure such as a school or hospital is built, for example, it should be
climate-proofed and located in a low-exposure area. The reality is that
cyclones and other natural hazards cannot be prevented, but vulnerability of
people to them can be reduced.

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