Tec~o7~o~~~~ics, 23 (1974) 277-282

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LOCAL b-VALUES RELATED TO SEISMICITY”

G. FIEDLER B.

(Accepted for publication April 9, 1974)

ABSTRACT

Fiedler, B., G,, 1974. Locat h-values related to seismicity. In: T. Rikitake (Editor), Focat
Processes and the Prediction of Earthquakes. Tectonophysics, 2313): 277-282.
To find a method by which the Caracas earthquake of July 29, 1967 could have been
foreseen, a total of thirteen years of continuous seismographic records, recorded at the
Seismological Institute Caracas (CAR), have been used to summarize the local seismic ac-
tivity, in function of time and magnitude,
The yearly variation of extreme b-values was compared with the real ma#nitude-frequency
distsibution of the local quakes, added year by year.
It was found that the Caracas earthquake occurred when the extreme b-value had passed
a maximum and when the standard deviation, which exists between the curve of the extreme
b-values and the real distribution, had passed a minimum.
Between the years 1960 and 1966, both curves show an opposing tendency and for the
years 1968--1973, i.e. after the Caracas earthquake, a parallel one.
The second part of this paper gives a brief summary of Venezuelan programs for earth-
quake prediction studies.

INTRODUCTION

The Seismolo~~al Institute of the Cagigal Observatory, has had in opera-

tion since 1957 an SPZ-Benioff seismometer and since May 1962 a complete
WWSSS-station, so that for the time interval from 1957 to 1973 homogeneous
seismo~aphi~ material exists.
Taking all 2,338 recorded local seismic events, the epicentral distances of
which are less than 60 km around the Institute and converting these quakes
with local magnitudes into an equivalent number of hypothetical M = 4 quakes,
we obtain a monthly frequency distribution like that seen in Fig. 1. We see
that the dark-lined curve has a certain periodicity, which is about one year,
but no characteristic indication with respect to the occurrence of a larger earth-
quake can be seen, such as that which happened in July 196’7.

* Presented at the Symposium on Focal Processes and the Prediction of Earthquakes;

IASPEI, Lima, Peru, 1973.
 To obtain the equivalent number ~1,~of a hypothetical M = 4 quake, use the
magnitude scale was made, so that for each event:

?24= alog (M,-4)

From this it follows that, for example, an event with M, = 3.0 is l/l0 of a
M = 4 event, or an event magnitude 5 corresponds to 10 events with magnitude
4. Therefore, in the first case n4 = 0.1 and in the second case n4 = 10, and the
sum of both, NJ = 10.1. It should be noted also, that the local magnitude is
computed by the relation:

M, = w32 CQ+ log,, (u,)]

The empirical factor 0.82 was obtained by comparing MC for events, the epi-
central distances of which were less than 600 km around the Institute, with
the corresponding value Mb, published in the PDE-cards of the ERL; vz is the
vertical ground particle velocity, computed from the seismograms SPZ.
The dotted line in Fig. 1 shows monthly ratios of NT/N,, where NT is the
total monthly number of nonconverted events and IV4 is the corresponding
number of events converted into magnitude 4. In this way one can estimate if
the observed periodicity was originated by a large number of small events or
by a small number of larger events.
A similar negative result with respect to earthquake prediction is obtained,
if we plot the monthly sums of the equivalent number of M = 4 events in any
accumulative way. This can be seen in Fig. 2, where nothing indicates, before
the year 1967, that a larger earthquake might occur. It should be noted also,
that the continuity of the curve was not altered or disturbed by the installa-
tion of the WWSSS-instruments in 1962.
The possible conversion of the M = 4 events into released energy, would
not change basically the distribution shown in the Figs. 1 and 2.

Fig. 1. Monthly sum of converted seismic events N4 and ratios NT/N4 for the years
1959-1973, for the Caracas region.
Fig. 2, Accumulative sum of converted events N4 for the years 1959-1973, for the Caracss
region.

THE EXTREME b-VALUES

If we plot on a log~ithmi~ scale and in an accumulative way year by year

since 1959 the magnitude-frequency distribution of local seismic events of the
Caracas area, we obtain Fig. 3. For computing the extreme b-value, we may
define a straight line in such a way that it passes through the three most extreme
magnitudes, with a lower limit of M, = 3, obtaining in this way the upper limit
for b for the corresponding year. The rest of the ma~itude-frequency distr-.-
bution forms, together with this straight line, an area or deviation, which we
may express arbitrarily in logarithmic “surface units” (S.U.). This area is zero

Fig. 3. Example for the yearly variation of the accumulative b-values during the time
interval 1959- 1973, for the Caracas region, The dark area is the corresponding surface of
deviations.
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only when the straight line for extreme O-value is fitted ideally by the real
ma~itude-frequency distribution.
Therefore, these “surface units”, given here ~bitr~ily in the form of simple
nonius-units, are an indicator which shows how far away from the b-value line
the real magnitude-frequency distribution is situated. Instead of “surface
units” any method to obtain extreme deviation could have been applied on the
area in Fig. 3. For example, computing standard deviations, which exist between
the extreme b-value line and the magnitude-frequency points, yields for the
year 1966 a mean of -2.58 + 2.74, for 1967, the year when the Caracas earth-
quake occurred, a mean of -4.75 rt 4.36, and. for the year 1972 a value of
-4.24 -t 3.49. The same discontinuity, as that obtained by the use of the sur-
face units, is observed, with a minimum in 1966, the year before the Caracas
earthquake.
latitude 3 was selected as a lower limit, due to the many quarry blasts
which take place at about 20 km away from the Seismic Institute of Caracas.
Probably a lower limit of magnitude 3.5 would have been better; but in this
case, the number of recorded events would be too low or the observation in-
terval of about fourteen years too short. Besides this, the average level of dis-
charged explosion energy has had a relative constant mean value during the
past ten years, as thorough inquiries have shown.

RESULTS

From Fig. 3 we observe that, due to the local seismicity, the accumulative
b-values increase from the arbitrary beginning during 1959-1965, where a
maximum of b = 1.33 was observed. During the same time interval, the numer-

Fig. 4. Variations of b-values and surface units for the time interval 1959-1973. The Caracas
earthquake occurred on July 29, 1967.
 2El

ical value of the surface units decays. In 1966 the b-value changes its tendency,
and the Caracas earthquake followed in 1967. This can be seen also in Fig. 4
where, for convenience, the same scale was used for the b-values and for the
surface units.
From 1968 on, no stronger earthquake occurred within the Caracas region
but, due to small local shocks and not discriminated blasts, both the b-value
line and the “surface units” increase about in parallel.
1960 was another year with increased seismic activity within the mentioned
area, with three local quakes of magnitude 4.1, 4.3 and 4.4. In Fig. 4, one c2.n
observe the approach of the b-value and the corresponding “surface units”
for this year. Unfortunately we do not know exactly the traces of these for
the years before 1959, because records are interrupted.

VENEZUELAN PROGRAMS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION STUDIES

The results of the foregoing investigation suggested the possibility of general

prediction of earthquakes in northern Venezuela. A project, with the financal
help of the “National Council for Technological and Scientific Investigation;
(CONICIT)” for studies of local earthquakes and the quarry-blast charac-
teristics in the Caracas region, was started.
If we consider the origin of the blasts as a fixed point, with known maxi-
mum variations in epicentral distance within some 50 m, the differences of
arrival time of P- and S-waves at two given seismographic stations for different
blasts should not change at all, if the physical characteristics of the undergrounc
remain constant.
Seismograph records of these blasts have shown that charges of 1000 kg of
dynamite are clearly recorded up to distances of 30-50 km around the shot-
point, taking into account the industrial noise of the Caracas area, which lin-.-
its considerably the instrumental gains or magnifications.
The seismic rays from the shotpoint to the Seismic Institute Caracas (CAR)
travel through an active seismic region. The epicentral distance of the blasts
is 16 km. Another short-period vertical seismograph was set up at a point some
46 km east of the Instittite CAR, or 33 km ENE of the shotpoints of the blasts,
and in such a direction that the seismic rays travel more through a non-seismic
volume of rocks. This latter group of rays is recorded also at the Seismic Insti-
tute CAR, but using for the first time in Venezuela a radio-frequency link by
means of microwave transmission at the frequency of 160.00 MHz. The signals
of both seismometers, which have very similar dynamic responses, are recorded
at the Institute by ink-recorders, which get the time marks from the same crys-
tal clock, so that any time error is exactly the same for both seismograms.
Small changes in velocity and, with this, small changes in the differences
of arrival times for both wave groups and different phases of them should be
observable, if pressure variations in one of these two rock volumes exist. This
is actually under study. The results will be correlated with the observed, 10~~1
seismic acticity.
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The installation of this RF-link station at the farm “La Siria (SIR)” near
Guatire was made possible thanks to the facilities granted by its owner, Dr.
Pedro Tinoco hijo. This farm is the only place found, which has the proper
distance, is opposite in direction from the shotpoints relative to CAR, and
which has direct visibility to the reception antenna of the Institute.
The Seismic Institute CAR started another project, with the financial help
of the “Organization of American States (OEA)“, to analyze the seismic charac-
teristics of the Venezuelan Andes and the possibility of predicting quakes there.
In this study and as a first step, the number of seismographic stations along
the well-known and some 400 km long Bocon6 fault system will be enlarged.
The station UAV in Merida has existed since 1969. We set up another one
at the Astrophysical Observatory presently under construction at El Hato,
near Mucuchies up on the Paramo (4000 m above sea-level) and a third one
is inside the dam of the new water reservoir near Santo Domingo, some 15 km
away from the Astrophysical Observatory. This project started at the beginning
of October 1973, when filling of the water reservoir began. It lies upon the
Bocono fault, one of Venezuela’s most active seismic zones.
A preliminary result of these seismic observations is that the local seismicity
around Santo Domingo has not altered during the first five months after having
filled up the dam, the water depth being at present about 60 m.