PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD MACROZONATION IN SRI LANKA

S.B. Uduweriya1, K.K.Wijesundara1 and P.B.R. Dissanayake1

1
Departments of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya.

Abstract
The objective of this study is to develop seismic hazard contour map for Sri Lanka and response
spectra for main cities in the country including capital Colombo using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Assessment. In the current study, the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was carried out for
twenty one cities in Sri Lanka including capital Colombo to produce response spectra and seismic
hazard contour maps for Sri Lanka in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA) for 2%,5% and
different design response spectra for three different levels of 50, 475 and 2475 years return periods.
For this purpose, first, a comprehensive earthquake catalogue has been complied for the region
bounded by latitudes 0ºN to 20ºN and longitudes 70ºE to 90ºE based on historical and instrumental
earthquake data from 1063 to 2012. The PGA and the SA were calculated within logic tree frame
work incorporating different parameters such as maximum cut off magnitude and ground motion
predictive equations for shallow crustal intra-plate earthquakes. The study produces seismic hazard
maps for Sri Lanka for 50 , 475 and 2750 years return periods respectively.

Keywords: Earthquake, peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration, attenuation relationship

1. Introduction
Sri Lanka is located within a tectonic plate known as "Indo-Australia plate". According to the
historical records a very few number of earthquakes were recorded within the country. Historical
records indicate that there was a devastating earthquake (Mw=6.4) in 1615 in Sri Lanka. The
epicentre of this earthquake was situated in Colombo and it caused to damage about 200 houses with
casualties over 2000[Rodrigues, 1616]. The Indian ocean Tsunami hit on 26th December 2004
following the magnitude of 9.4 due to Sumatra earthquake damaged most of the coastal areas in Sri
Lanka. But there were no observed significant direct damage due to ground shaking. After the
Tsunami many local and international organizations were involved in reconstruction process. Local
insurance companies declined for payments for damaged properties. They highly emphasized that o
accommodate seismic as well as Tsunami loads[Peiris, L.M.N., 2007]. Consequently, there was a
demand for seismic resistant designs.

Nowadays, the rapid development in the construction of infrastructures is progressing in Sri Lanka
and as a consequence of that many important structures such as high rise buildings, bridges and roads
will be constructed around the country. Then, the seismic resistant design will be playing a major role
in the design process. There are no specific guidelines for seismic resistant designs available locally
on how to meet the new requirements in order to satisfy the expectations of various parties. Cost
factor is very important in any project. So, new optimization tools will be used to carry out
economical designs. The performance based design methodology is the most common method that
engineers can use to produce economical designs. Therefore, the objective of this study was set out to
fulfil this requirement by introducing seismic hazard contour map for Sri Lanka and suitable response
spectrum for main cities in the country including capital Colombo by carrying out a Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for different return periods of earthquakes. Because PSHA is the
most widely used procedure to determine the ground motion parameters such as PGA and SA to
which structure has to be designed by an engineer.

The basic procedure of PSHA was initially developed by Cornell [1968] and its computerized form
was implemented by McGuire [1976 and 1978]. Modern PSHA has gradually evolved by
incorporating additional terms and computational tools in order to better represent seismic hazard.
The basic methodology involves computing how often a suite of specified levels of ground motion
will be exceeded at the site. The general procedure for a Cornell-McGuire PSHA comprises four
fundamental steps.

The first step involves the identification and delineation of all potential sources of seismicity that may
affect the site or sites of interest. These sources of seismicity may be represented as area sources, fault
sources, or, point sources, depending upon the geological nature of the sources and available data. In
the second step, the temporal behaviour of earthquakes is assumed to follow a Poissonian process and
it is determined for each source by establishing a magnitude recurrence relationship over the range of
magnitudes that are likely to be generated by each seismic source. The third step involves the use of
ground motion prediction equations(GMPE) to establish the conditional probability of exceedance of
a pre-specified ground motion value for each site given the occurrence of an earthquake at a particular
magnitude and location and the final step of the analysis computes the annual number of events that
produce a ground motion parameter, e.g. SA that exceeds a specified level, z. This number of events
per year, ν, is also called the “annual frequency of exceedance”. The inverse of ν is called the “return
period”. Several probability distributions for each seismic source defined in the previous steps are
introduced.

2. Earthquake Catalogue

A new earthquake catalogue was compiled for an area bounded by latitudes 0ºN to 20ºN and
longitudes 70ºE to 90ºE based on historical and instrumental earthquake data from 1063 to 2012. Data
was collected from different sources such as Menon et al.(2010), Chandra (1977), Rao and Rao
(1984), Guha and Basu (1993), Iyengar et al.(1999), Jaiswal and Sinha (2007), Abeykoon (1995),
Navin Peris (2007), Earthquake catalogue prepared by National Disaster Management Authority, New
Delhi, India (2011) and Internationally recognized earthquake databases on the internet, such as the
National Earthquake Information Centre (NEIC), the International Seismological Centre (ISC), the
Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), and the Geological Survey and Mines
Bureau, Sri Lanka (GSMB). Duplicate events were manually detected and deleted.

To remove foreshocks and aftershocks Declustering method proposed by Gardner and Knopoff (1974)
was used. Completeness analysis of the catalogue was done according to the method proposed by
Stepp (1973). Figure 1 shows plot of earthquake catalogue.

3. Seismic Source Zonation and Magnitude Recurrence Relationship

The seismic zonation is usually defined by associating the seismic to the tectonic and geologic
settings in the area. The major tectonic structures aground Sri Lanka are located on the boundaries of
the Indo-Australian plate. The nearest structure is the Sumatra subduction zone to the east and the
extensional/transforms fault structures of the central Indian Ridge to the west. The above zones are
located approximately 2000 km away from Sri Lanka hence any earthquakes in these structures are
unlikely to have a major impact in the island.

The geological history of Sri Lanka is such that 90% of the island consists of Precambrian
metamorphic and granitoid rocks. The Precambrian basement is divided into three major units: central
Highland Complex (HC), Wanni Complex (WC) and the Vijayan Complex (VC). The Kadugannawa
Complex (KC) is a minor unit within the Highland Complex. HC is the oldest unit thrusting upward to
form the central highlands with the highest uplift along a SW-NE-ENE belt from Galle-Rakwana-
Horton Plains to Batticalo. The uplift in the Jurassic (post-Precambrian) period was attributed to the
movement of the Sri Lanka mini-plate in S-SE direction relative to the Indian plate [Vithanage ,1995].

Figure 1: Plot of earthquake catalogue

Numerous lineaments were therefore identified in the HC with major lineaments along the belt of
highest uplift and the N-S trending Mahaweli lineament where the Mahaweli River takes a straight
course for about 60km. The micro- seismicity within the island recorded by the Kotmale micro-
seismic network could be closely associated with these lineaments in the central highland region
[Vitanage, 1995 and Fernando,Kulasinghe,1986]. Seismicity of Sri Lanka that could have an impact
on the island is located outside as well as within the island. Various researchers have studied the
seismicity and tectonics within and outside of Sri Lanka in order to highlight the potential seismic
hazard. Many Indian scientists have carried out studies to define seismic characteristic of peninsular
India. PSHA [Menon, T. and et.al., 2010] was carried out for Tamil Nadu in Southern India. They
have scientifically identified eleven seismogenic zones related to the Southern part of the India around
Tamil Nadu including Sri Lanka based on previous scientific researches done by Indian scientists and
GPS measurements. Based on above information, same seismogenic zones classification is used for
this study because Tamil Nadu is geographically very close to Sri Lanka. Figure 2 shows these
seismic zones.

Eight out of these eleven seismic zones are related to the current study. In addition to these seismic
area sources, a line source was identified at 90 km away from Colombo city along the Comorin ridge
in the western sea. Then, Truncated Gutenberg-Richter relationships were developed to these seismic
area sources and the line source. Figure 3 shows the Truncated G-R Recurrence relationship obtained
in the current study for line source in Seismic Zone 9.

Figure 2: Different Seismic Zones

-0.5

-1

-1.5
Log(N)

y = -0.577x + 1.209
-2

-2.5
3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
Magnitude (Mw)

Figure 3: Truncated G-R Relationship for SZ9

4. Attenuation Relationships

Three ground motion attenuation relationships were chosen in this PSHA to derive the PGA and the
spectral acceleration values after comparison with Peninsular India (PI) strong motion data. The
relationship by Abrahamson and Silva (1997) was developed from earthquakes recorded in worldwide
specially west and north America and recommended to use for shallow crustal events worldwide.
Raghu Knath and Iyengar (2007) developed an empirical relationship for Peninsular India based on a
stochastic seismological model and subsequently compared to instrumental data from Koyona (1967)
and Bhuj (2001) earthquakes in India. In addition to these two equations, the attenuation relationship
developed by Campbell and Bozorgnia (2008) which suitable for western United states and similar
tectonically active regions of shallow crustal faulting has been chosen. Attenuation of ground
motion predicted by these three relationship is compared to strong motion records of two earthquakes
from PI. Four strong motion records from the Jabalpur earthquake (1997) and a Bhuj aftershock
(2001), both of Magnitude Mw 5.7 [Singh et al.,2003] have been used in the comparisons (Ref. Figure
4). The shortest distance to the area source boundary was used as epicentral distance in these
attenuation relationships to calculate the PGAs and spectral accelerations except Zone 9 which Sri
Lanka lies.

Figure 4: Comparison of Three GMPEs in terms of PGA for Mw 5.7

5. Deaggregation and Logic Trees

Since all of the sources, magnitudes, and distances are considered together, it is difficult to understand
of what is controlling the hazard from the hazard curve by itself. To provide insight into what events
are the most important for the hazard, the hazard at a given ground motion level is broken down into
its contributions from different earthquake scenarios. This process is called deaggregation [e.g.
Bazzurro and Cornell, 1999]. This process was carrying out for Zone 9 to find the PGA and SA.
Logic tree methodology was used to address the epistemic uncertainty of various parameters and
relationships in the PSHA calculation. The maximum cut off magnitude is based on the maximum
historical earthquake (MHE) in each source zone of the earthquake catalogue. As an alternative, the
MHE increased by 0.3 units has been considered. 60% of weight has been assigned to the maximum
magnitude and balance 40 % of weight was assigned to MHE increased by 0.3 units. For GMPEs, it
was difficult to assign a higher weight to one equation over the other, and hence equal weights have
been assigned. Figure 5 shows this distribution.

Figure5: Parameters and weighting factors adopted in the logic tree

6. Results

Figure 6 shows the calculated Response Spectra(RS) for 50 year, 475 year and 2475 year return
periods at rock sites in Colombo at bed rock level for Earthquake 30 km away from Colombo (near
feild earthquake). The results shows that the PGA at rock site for 10% of probability of exceedance
in 50 years or 475 years return period is 0.107g for Colombo.

Similarly RS was obtained for the PGA at rock site for 2% of probability of exceedance in 50 years
or 2475 years and also for 50 year return periods. The PGA values were 0.207g and 0.025g
respectively. Figure 7 shows the calculated Response Spectra (RS) for 50 year, 475 year and 2475
year return periods at rock sites in Kandy at bed rock level for near field earthquake.

The calculated PGA values for 50 year, 475 year and 2475 year return periods were 0.005g, 0.025g
and 0.057g respectively. PGA values have been reported for main twenty one cities in Sri Lanka for
50 year, 475 year and 2475 year return periods for earthquake occurred 30 km away from Colombo
city are shown in Table 1 and PGA values have been reported for same cities for same return periods
for earthquake occurred 90 km away from Colombo city are shown in Table 2.
 0.50
475 yrs
0.45
50 yrs
Spectral Acceleration (g)

0.40 2475 yrs

0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5

Period(s)
Figure 6: RS for 50 yr, 475 yr and 2475 yr Return periods in rock site in Colombo

0.12
475 yrs
Spectral Acceleration (g)

0.10 50 yrs

0.08 2475 yrs

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5

Period(s)

Figure 7: RS for 50 yr, 475 yr and 2475 yr Return periods in rock site in Kandy

5% elastic damping spectrum for rocky or hard soil sites was proposed for Sri Lanka based on the
results obtained from this study and it is shown in equation 1 and Figure 8. Subswquently, proposed
spectrum was compared with Indian spectrum and PSHA spectrum for Colombo. The comparision
shows in Figure 9.

.
 Table 1: PGA values 21 cities in Sri Lanka for near field earthquake (30km )

Latitude Longitude PGA/(g)

No City
/(North) /(East) T=50 T=475 T=2475
1 Ampara 7.28 81.67 0.002 0.011 0.027
2 Anuradhapura 8.35 80.38 0.007 0.034 0.074
3 Badulla 6.98 81.06 0.003 0.017 0.040
4 Baticaloa 7.72 81.70 0.002 0.011 0.028
5 Colombo 6.93 79.84 0.025 0.107 0.207
6 Dambulla 7.86 80.65 0.004 0.025 0.056
7 Galle 6.04 80.22 0.009 0.045 0.094
8 Hambantota 6.12 81.12 0.003 0.016 0.038
9 Horana 6.72 80.05 0.013 0.062 0.127
10 Jaffna 9.67 80.00 0.041 0.158 0.325
11 Kandy 7.30 80.64 0.005 0.025 0.057
12 Kurunegala 7.48 80.37 0.007 0.035 0.076
13 Maho 7.82 80.28 0.008 0.040 0.086
14 Mannar 8.98 79.90 0.033 0.134 0.280
15 Matara 5.95 80.53 0.005 0.028 0.061
16 Mullaitivu 9.23 80.53 0.008 0.040 0.101
17 Nuwara eliya 6.97 80.77 0.004 0.022 0.050
18 Polonnaruwa 7.93 81.00 0.003 0.018 0.042
19 Puttalam 8.03 79.84 0.029 0.122 0.233
20 Rathnapura 6.67 80.40 0.006 0.033 0.073
21 Trincomalee 8.57 81.23 0.009 0.026 0.048

Table 2: PGA values 21 cities in Sri Lanka for far field earthquake (90km)
Latitude Longitude PGA/(g)
City
No /(North) /(East) T=50 T=475 T=2475
1 Ampara 7.28 81.67 0.001 0.008 0.021
2 Anuradhapura 8.35 80.38 0.003 0.019 0.044
3 Badulla 6.98 81.06 0.002 0.012 0.029
4 Baticaloa 7.72 81.70 0.001 0.008 0.022
5 Colombo 6.93 79.84 0.006 0.033 0.072
6 Dambulla 7.86 80.65 0.003 0.015 0.037
7 Galle 6.04 80.22 0.004 0.022 0.051
8 Hambantota 6.12 81.12 0.002 0.011 0.028
9 Horana 6.72 80.05 0.005 0.026 0.059
10 Jaffna 9.67 80.00 0.011 0.053 0.125
11 Kandy 7.30 80.64 0.003 0.016 0.037
12 Kurunegala 7.48 80.37 0.003 0.019 0.045
13 Maho 7.82 80.28 0.004 0.021 0.048
14 Mannar 8.98 79.90 0.011 0.053 0.125
15 Matara 5.95 80.53 0.003 0.017 0.039
16 Mullaitivu 9.23 80.53 0.008 0.040 0.101
17 Nuwara Eliya 6.97 80.77 0.002 0.014 0.034
18 Polonnaruwa 7.93 81.00 0.002 0.012 0.030
19 Puttalam 8.03 79.84 0.007 0.035 0.075
20 Rathnapura 6.67 80.40 0.003 0.019 0.044
21 Trincomalee 8.57 81.23 0.009 0.026 0.048
 amax (1+10T) 0.00 ≤ T ≤ 0.10

Sa = 2.5 * amax 0.10 ≤ T ≤ 0.40 Eq. (1)

amax / (1.2T) 0.40 ≤ T ≤ 4.00

3.00
Spectral Acceleration (Sa/amax)

2.50

2.00
1.50

1.00
0.50
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Period(s)

Figure 8 Proposed 5% elastic damping spectrum for rocky or hard soil sites

Response Spectrum for Colombo

0.30
PSHA Spectrum
Spectral Acceleration (g)

0.25
Proposed
0.20 Spectrum
Indian Code
0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5

Period(s)

Figure 9 Comparison of Response Spectra in Colombo for 475 yr Return Period

In addition that, proposed spectrum was compared with Indian spectrum and response spectrum of the
recorded data of magnitude 4.2 earthquake occurred on 06/07/2012 at latitude 5.140 N and longitude
77.015 E. Recorded data was obtained from three GSMB earthquake monitoring stations;
Pallekelle(PALK), Mahakanadarawa(MALK) and Hakmana(HALK). The comparison with data
recorded at Pallekele station is shown in Figures 10.

Comparision of Three Spectra

0.0018
Spectral Acceleration (m/s2)

Mw 4.2 EQ
0.0016
recorded at PALK
0.0014 Proposed
0.0012 Spectrum
Indian Spectrum
0.001
0.0008
0.0006
0.0004
0.0002
0
0 1 2 3 4 5

Period(s)

Figure 10 Comparison of Response Spectra with recorded data at Pallekele Station

The comparison shows for rarely low period values (0.1s), SA estimation is un-conservative.
However, period below the 0.1s is out of the engineering interest. Because the most of fundamental
period structures are well below the period 0.1s.

Sri Lanka Hazard Contour Maps

Seismic hazard contour maps have been prepared by performing hazard computations. The PSHA
results obtained by combining six branches of the logic tree. Six number of contour maps have been
produced for mean values of PGA for 50 year, 475 year and 2475 year return periods for near field
and far field earthquakes. The contour maps are illustrated in Figures 11-16.
Figure 11- SL Hazard map for PGA at 50 yr return Figure 12- SL Hazard map for PGA at 475 yr
period for near field earthquake (30km) return period for near field earthquake (30km)

Figure 13- SL Hazard map for PGA at 2475 yr return Figure 14- SL Hazard map for PGA at 50 yr period
for near field earthquake (30km) return period for near field earthquake (90km)
Figure 15- SL Hazard map for PGA at 475 yr return Figure 16- SL Hazard map for PGA at 2475 yr
period for near field earthquake (90km) return period for near field earthquake (90km)

7. Conclusions

The scope of the research work presented here was to carry out probabilistic seismic hazard
assessment and to develop response spectra for main Cities in Sri Lanka which can be used for
designing of structures for earthquake loading in Sri Lanka and for the development of seismic hazard
map for Sri Lanka. The study produced a PGA of 0.107g for 10% probability of exceedance in 50
years or 475 year return period for Colombo while it is for Kandy is 0.06g.

8. Acknowledgements

Authors would like to express deepest gratitude to my supervisosr prof. P.B.R.Dissanayake, Senior
Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of engineering University of Peradeniya and Dr.
K.K. Wijesundara, Senior Lecture, South Asian Institute of Technology and Medicine, for their
untiring guidance and continuous encouragement throughout this research project.Autors would also
like to express their gratitude Dr. D. menon and Dr. T. Ornthammarath and Dr. Navin peris for their
valuable support to the study. Finally I thank members of my family for their kind support provided in
numerous ways to make this study a success
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