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Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001

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13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and Safe Transport

13th International 2019),
(TRANSCOM Scientific
HighConference on Sustainable,
Tatras, Novy Smokovec –Modern and Safe
Grand Hotel Transport
Bellevue,
(TRANSCOM 2019),Slovak High Tatras, Novy
Republic, Smokovec
May – Grand Hotel Bellevue,
29-31, 2019
Slovak Republic, May 29-31, 2019
Impact of Digital Technologies on Labor Market and the Transport
Impact of Digital Technologies on Labor Market and the Transport
Sector
Sector
a
Roman Chinoracký*a, Tatiana Čorejováa
a
Roman Chinoracký* , Tatiana Čorejová
a
University of Zilina, Univerzitna 8215/1, Zilina 010 26
a
University of Zilina, Univerzitna 8215/1, Zilina 010 26

Abstract
Abstract
The economy and society as we know is constantly changing. One of the key drivers of this change is digital transformation. Digital
The economy and
transformation society
is based notasonly
we know
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constantly
butchanging.
above all One
on theoflatest
the key drivers
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technologies that is digital
have transformation.
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on the andbut
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above allbut
onalso transport
the latest industry.
digital The process
technologies that have of become
digitalization has created
an integral part of
our lives. They
opportunities foraffect not only our
new products, society and
technologies andeconomy
processes.butOnalso
thetransport industry.
other hand, The process
digitalization or so of digitalization
called has created
digital disruption has
opportunities
brought threatsforwith
newit.products, technologies
This threats, and other
like in every processes. On the
industrial other hand,
revolution are indigitalization or sochallenges
the form of new called digital disruption and
for employers has
employees.
brought Digital
threats withtechnologies as well
it. This threats, likeasin digital services
every other changerevolution
industrial the rules ofare
employment
in the formand the requirements
of new challenges forofemployers
competences,
and
employees.
knowledge, Digital technologies
skills and attitudes as
of well as digitalBeginning
employees. services change the rules
to promote of employment
online and the
work platforms, requirements
changing of competences,
local and global labor
knowledge, skills
markets. Based on and
this attitudes
facts, the of
aimemployees.
of this paper Beginning to promote
is to analyze, online
define and work platforms,
characterize changing
the impact local
of digital and globalon
technologies labor
the
labor market
markets. andonitsthis
Based potential impact
facts, the aim in
of the
thisfield of is
paper transport labordefine
to analyze, market.
and characterize the impact of digital technologies on the
labor market and its potential impact in the field of transport labor market.
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
©
Peer-review under responsibility
2019 The Authors. Published byof the scientific
Elsevier B.V. committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable,
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable,
Peer-review under responsibility
Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM2019).
Modern and Safe Transport of
(TRANSCOM the scientific
2019). committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable,
Modern and Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019).
Keywords: Automation; Digital technologies; Labor market; Employment; Transport Sector
Keywords: Automation; Digital technologies; Labor market; Employment; Transport Sector

1. Introduction
1. Introduction
According to Schwab (2017) we are at the beginning of a fourth industrial revolution, which began at the turn of
thisAccording tobuilds
century and Schwabon (2017) weofare
the basis at the
digital beginning
revolution of of
theathird
fourth industrial
industrial revolution,
revolution. Thewhich began at the
third industrial turn of
revolution
this century and builds on the basis of digital revolution of the third industrial revolution. The third industrial
began in the 1960s and is usually called the computer or digital revolution because it was driven by the developmentrevolution
began in the 1960s and is usually called the computer or digital revolution because it was driven by the development

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +42-41-513-3144

* E-mail address:author.
Corresponding roman.chinoracky@fpedas.uniza.sk
Tel.: +42-41-513-3144
E-mail address: roman.chinoracky@fpedas.uniza.sk
2352-1465 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Peer-review©under
2352-1465 responsibility
2018 The of the scientific
Authors. Published committee
by Elsevier B.V. of the 13th International Scientif ic Conference on Sustainable, Modern and
Safe Transport
Peer-review (TRANSCOM
under 2019).
responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientif ic Conference on Sustainable, Modern and
Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019).

2352-1465  2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Scientific Conference on Sustainable, Modern and
Safe Transport (TRANSCOM 2019).
10.1016/j.trpro.2019.07.139
 Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001 995
2 Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

of semiconductors, mainframe computing (1960s), personal computing (1970s – 1980s) and the internet (1990s).
Fourth industrial revolution can be characterized by a much more universal and mobile internet, by smaller and more
powerful sensors that have become cheaper, and by artificial intelligence and machine learning. The fourth industrial
revolution, however, is not only about smart and connected machines and systems. Its scope is much wider. Occurring
simultaneously are waves of further breakthroughs in areas ranging from gene sequencing to nanotechnology, from
renewables to quantum computing. It is the fusion of these technologies and their interaction across the physical,
digital and biological domains that make the fourth industrial revolution fundamentally different from previous
revolutions (Adams 2018, Gontareva et al. 2018, Prainsack and Buyx 2018).
In overall, digital technologies appear to have several disruptive uses and applications, offering radical new ways
of manufacturing, buying and selling, organizing, with important consequences on employment (Freddi, 2017) with
the emphasis on the lowest qualifications (one additional robot replaces about six workers) and wages (one additional
robot per 1,000 workers results in a reduction of 0.25% to 0.5%) (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2017). In light of these
driving factors and changes that we face, there is one certainty: New technologies will dramatically change the nature
of work across all industries and occupations.
According to Christidis et. al. (2014) and his study “Future employment in transport” there are 6 main factors that
can influence employment, skills and quality of work in transport. One of these factors are technological factors.
Information technologies applied to transport are probably a crucial innovation cluster that will contribute to make the
sector more innovation-friendly than it used to be during the last century. IT applications span from online monitoring
of speed, consumption, optimal path, congestion avoidance, driving help and assistance, etc. Those technologies will
require a higher degree of qualification and skills of workers in the sector (Madudova, Corejova, Valica 2018).

2. Analysis of current state

2.1. Digital transformation

Automation as a part of digital transformation of businesses is a critical and one of the most important issue which
will be affecting the labor market in the near future (Goos 2018). As we can see in the figure 1 and according to the
OECD publication „Job Creation and Local Economic Development“ (2018) at the beginning of the century, 100
000 industrial robots were delivered to the businesses each year across the world. By the 2016 this number has
reached 300 000 annually.

Figure 1. Worldwide annual supply of robots in OECD countries [1]

Based upon this, the aggregate pattern is reflected in an increase in the use of robots in several OECD countries.
Many economic models predict that increasing digitalization and a growing use of industrial robots will lead to higher
labor productivity growth. Some workers will benefit from new technology that makes their jobs more pleasant and
996 Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001
Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 3

leads to rising wages. Others workers will struggle to adapt to the new environment and will face job losses. This
means that the importance of some jobs will decline and gradually such job positions will disappear and, on the
contrary the importance of some jobs will increase significantly.

2.2. Digital transformation of labor market

According to several authors (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014; Harmon and Silberman 2018, Rifkin 2014), the
current technological change offers some radical new opportunities that can lead to significant transformations not
only in the way of producing and doing business but also in the overall economic system.
Study of World Economic Forum “Future of Jobs” (2018) points out that by the year 2022, 38 % of businesses
worldwide expect to extend their workforce to new productivity-enhancing roles, and more than a quarter expect
automation to lead to creation of new roles in their enterprise. Business are set to expand their use of contractors doing
task-specialized work and also intend to engage workers in a more flexible manner, utilizing remote staffing beyond
physical offices and decentralization of operations. In overall study points out that there will be a significant shift in
the quality, location, format and permanency of new roles.
Study further adds that among the range of roles that are set to experience increasing demand in the period up to
2022 are established roles such as data analysts and scientists, software and applications developers, and ecommerce
and social media specialists that are significantly based on and enhanced by the use of technology (Corejova, Al
Kassiri 2016). Also expected to grow are roles that leverage distinctively human skills – for example customer service
workers, sales and marketing professionals, professionals in the field of training and development, organizational
development specialists and innovation managers. An increased demand is expected for a variety of new specialist
roles related to the new emerging technologies. Such roles are AI and machine learning specialists, big data specialists,
process automation experts, information security analysts, user experience and human-machine interaction designers,
robotics engineers and blockchain specialists. Across the industries surveyed in the study, jobs expected to become
increasingly redundant over the 2018-2022 period are routine-based, middle-skilled white collar roles – such as data
entry clerks, accounting and payroll clerk’s secretaries, auditors, bank tellers and cashiers. In overall these jobs – are
more susceptible to advances in new technologies and process automation. These shifts reflect unfolding and
accelerating trends that have evolved over a number of recent years (Corejova, Al Kassiri 2015).
On a global scale, the issue of job automation is dealt with in the publication „Job Creation and Local Economic
Development“(2018) from OECD. Most recent findings of the OECD from the year 2013 in the context of
percentage of jobs at high and significant risk of automation are stated in figure 2.

Figure 2. Share of jobs at risk of automation by the countries of OECD [1]

By the high risk of automation we can understand the share of workers whose jobs face a risk of automation of
70 % or above. Significant risk of change reflects the share of workers whose jobs have a 50-70 % chance of being
 Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001 997
4 Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

automated. Based upon the findings of the OECD, we can conclude that the share of jobs at high risk of automation
varies strongly across countries. The percentage of jobs at high risk of automation varies from 5,7 % in Norway to
33,7 % in Slovakia. More generally, Northern Europe (Scandinavian countries and United Kingdom), North America
(Canada and United States) and New Zealand face relatively low levels of risk. At the other end countries of Eastern
and Southern Europe face much higher risk of automation.
Publication further adds that these differences are not due to sectoral differences in the respective economies.
Rather, they are due to the different organization of jobs in those countries. Jobs in Southern and Eastern Europe are
more likely to have automatable aspects than jobs of the same job family in the other countries. For example, workers
on an assembly line might only do a manual task that is at high risk of automation in one country. In another country,
workers in the same occupation might also monitor an industrial robot and take care of quality control measures. In
this case, jobs in the occupation in the second country are at much lower risk than in the first country.

3. Methodology

The aim of the paper is to analyze, define and characterize the impact of digital technologies on the labor market
and potential impacts of digital technologies on labor market in the transport industry. In order to achieve this goal, at
the introduction we defined the context in which the subject was dealt with. As part of the analysis of the current state,
we applied secondary research, which consisted of data collection and processing methods and their subsequent
analysis and synthesis. The main sources of realized secondary research are the publications of foreign authors and
research reports from the OECD and the World Economic Forum.
In the research, we conducted, we examined the correlation and the trend between the selected data we obtained
from the OECD (2018) statistical databases and which we also used to analyze the current state. Data of employment
and unemployment are from year 2013, same as data on jobs with high risk automation which are from year 2013.
Countries whose data we taken into account are: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway,
Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. Second part of
research is dedicated to characterizing trends that may have an impact on the labor market in the transport industry
specifically in the freight transport sector.

4. Results

As we can see in Figure 3, in OECD countries with high unemployment rate, the level of jobs at high risk
automation increases, which can also be confirmed by the trend line with an upward tendency. Average number of
jobs at high risk in selected OECD countries is at the rate 13,5 % and at this rate the average unemployment is 9,3 %.
Correlation coefficient of unemployment rate and percentage of jobs at high risk of automation in selected countries
is 0,5298. This means that the correlation between selected variables have moderate positive correlation. In another
words unemployment rate in selected countries is correlated to the percentage of jobs at high risk of automation by
52,98 %. Countries, whose unemployment can be mostly affected by job automation are Slovakia, Greece, Spain and
Slovenia and on the other hand countries who have low unemployment and also have low risk of job automation and
therefore whose labor market can be less affected by job automation are Scandinavian countries such as Norway,
Finland, Sweden and Korea.
As we can see in Figure 4, in the selected OECD countries, the lower the employment rate is, the higher is the risk
of job automation. This is also proven by the fact that the trend line has downward tendency. Average values for the
OECD are 13,5 % for the risk of jobs automation at the employment rate of 65,6 %. Correlation coefficient of
employment rate and percentage of jobs at high risk of automation has value of -0,5822. Coefficient value indicates
that there is moderate negative correlation between examined variables. This relation can be interpreted as following:
employment rate in selected countries that are members of OECD is correlated to the percentage of jobs that are at the
high risk automation by -58,22 %. Countries whose employment can be mostly affected by automation are Slovakia,
Slovenia, Greece and Spain. On the other hand employment of countries such as Norway, Finland, Sweden,
Netherlands and USA may not be significantly affected by job automation.
 Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 5
998 Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001

Figure 3. Relationship between unemployment rate and jobs at high risk of automation.

Relationship between employment rate and percentage of jobs at high risk of automation is stated in figure 4.

Figure 4. Relationship between employment rate and jobs at high risk of automation.

On the basis of statistical measurements, the results of which can be seen in Figures 3 and 4, we can state that
automation can have a major impact on employment and unemployment. From a perspective of unemployment, in
countries with high unemployment rate there is a high risk associated with job automation. Countries with low
unemployment have a relative lesser risk associated with the automation of jobs. From the point of view of
employment, in countries where there is low employment, the risk of job automation is rising and therefore, on the
other hand, the higher the employment rate, the risk of job automation decreases (Madlenakova and Madlenak 2015).
Countries, whose employment respectively unemployment can be highly affected by automation are in both cases
Slovakia, Slovenia, Greece and Spain. Rates of employment and unemployment of countries such as Norway, Sweden
and Finland face the lowest risk of decrease in the case of employment and increase in the case of unemployment.
Thus, we can state that automation, which is an integral part of technological progress, may have a significant
impact on the labor market in selected OECD countries in the future. This impact has the character of an increasing
 Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001 999
6 Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

unemployment and decreasing employment. Impact of automation can be crucial in countries where the
unemployment is high and the employment is low. It is therefore necessary for countries to prepare themselves for the
potential risks associated with the impact of digital technologies on the labor market.
The second of part of our research was dedicated to the analysis of implications of digitalization of labor market of
freight transport sector. The transport sector directly employs millions of drivers. If other areas such as taxis, buses
and delivery services are included, numbers are much larger. In OECD countries, there are typically between 3 to 6
% of total employed working in the sector. According to Blix (2017) the freight labor market is now subject to several
developments that could have impact on employment and on the businesses that support or rely on the transport sector.
Blix in his study further discusses scenarios for how work could develop in the transport sector. These scenarios are
designed for the area of autonomous vehicles.
First scenario “Medium skill, medium autonomy” is the least disruptive scenario for the transport labor market. In
this scenario the share of autonomous vehicles is limited. This can happen for a variety of reasons, for example, if
regulation presents hurdles that are costly to overcome or in situations where human flexibility is more cost effective
than multi-purpose automation. The experience from the labor market as a whole is that manual non-routine jobs are
much less subject to automation. Perhaps it will be possible to automate the loading and unloading of cargo at
specialized stations at or outside cities. But even so, many transports have final destinations in places inside cities
where full automation could prove costly.
Second scenario “Low skill, high autonomy” can be thought of as one where a large share of the current tasks is
still performed by humans, but the skills needed to perform the tasks are lower. For example, a human driver is less
able to keep the same speed of the optimal speed for fuel consumption compared to machines. Software can calculate
the most fuel efficient driving in ways that are impossible for humans. Such technology is already available in
commercial fleets today and when fully implemented, further reduces the need for human driving. In this scenario,
human work will be concentrated around non-routine work that is costly to automate. Some work in the sector will
even require higher skills than today. For example, repairing machines and vehicles could require a combination of
software skills as well as understanding of mechanics. But diagnostics and communication technologies also imply
that those possessing higher skills may not need to be on-site. In the same way that specialized doctors can follow a
surgery on video-link from afar, contingency work and repairs on vehicles could also be done from off-site in
combination with lower skilled labor.
Third scenario “High skill, high autonomy” points out that if the freight transport labor increasingly goes towards
automation, the decline in the amount of jobs could be similar to how jobs in the manufacturing industry have declined
over time. Due to network effects from digital technologies, the changes could be much more rapid than before. The
driving forces behind a decline in jobs could stem from: substantially better safety records than human drivers, lower
labor costs and less traffic congestions if transport logistics improved and vehicles also drive during the night. There
is controversy about the safety of autonomous vehicles and especially about the ethical and moral choices that must
be programmed in advance. There is less controversy that the total amount of accidents could be substantially fewer.
An established track record of better safety could lead to an accelerated impetus for automation. As regards labor
costs, a human on board a fully autonomous vehicles with a solid track record would be rather expensive. If there is
very little for the driver to do, such jobs will remain mainly if regulation requires it. In combination with platooning,
one could consider one driver accompanying several trucks. The labor cost of one driver servicing several trucks could
still be cost effective. Of course, in a platoon with five trucks, only one driver might remain employed. Acceptance
for autonomous trucks could also increase if transports were made off-peak hours, such as during the nights, thereby
alleviating daytime congestion. Better logistics and use of existing capacity would reduce costs of congestion.
In general, the ultimate effects of work on the freight transport labor market are likely to a large degree depend on
the skill level of the jobs. A fully autonomous fleet will require a few specialized and high skilled workers to operate,
but the amount of less skilled work could decline dramatically.

5. Conclusion

The present is characterized by technological advances that affect the society, businesses, economy and also freight
transport sector. This phenomenon is referred to as the fourth industrial revolution. The fourth industrial revolution is
the fourth major industrial era since the initial industrial revolution of the 18 th century. The fourth industrial revolution
1000 Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001
Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000 7

is marked by emerging breakthroughs in a number of fields, including robotics, artificial intelligence, the industrial
internet of things, 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, quantum computing, and so on. This wave of new technological
advancements brings with itself new challenges that we as a society face. One of these challenges is the impact of
these modern digital technologies to the labor market. Labor market in the field of transport industry will be affected
by the technological factors that will make sector more innovation-friendly than it used to be during the last century.
IT applications of these technological factors span for example from online monitoring of speed, consumption, optimal
path, congestion avoidance, driving help and assistance (Madlenak et al 2018). These technologies will also require a
higher degree of qualification and skills of workers in the transport sector.
Industries are changing and the number of robots delivered to the businesses across the world has risen from 100000
per year to 300000 in 2016. Adoption of industrial robots will lead on one hand to labor productivity growth, creation
of new types of jobs, rising wages and making some of the jobs more pleasant to do. On the other hand robots will
make some jobs less and less important and some jobs will be expendable altogether. Jobs that are set to experience
increasing demand are data analysts, scientists, software developers, ecommerce and social media specialists. An
increased demand is expected for variety of new jobs such as AI and machine learning specialists, big data specialists,
process automation experts, information security analysts, user experience and human-machine interaction designers,
robotics engineers and blockchain specialists. Redundant jobs are those that are routine-based. For example data entry
clerks, accounting and payroll specialists, secretaries, auditors, bank tellers, cashiers and so on.
On a global scale share of jobs that are at the risk of automation varies across the countries. In general, Northern
Europe, North America and New Zealand are less susceptible to the risk of job automation. Countries of Eastern and
Southern Europe face much higher risk of job automation. Based upon our own calculations, countries with high
unemployment rate have higher risk of job automation. On the contrary, the lower the unemployment the level of risk
of job automation decreases. From the employment standpoint of view, the countries where there is low employment,
the risk of job automation is rising and therefore, on the other hand, the higher the employment rate, the risk of job
automation decreases. Impact of automation can be crucial in countries where the unemployment is high and the
employment is low and so we can conclude that it is necessary for countries to prepare themselves for the potential
risks associated with the impact of automation on the labor market. On a basis of realized measurement of correlation
coefficients (figure 2, figure 3), which indicate only moderate correlation between examined variables, we can
conclude that further analysis is needed for a deeper knowledge of the problem, because several research problems
exist in relation to our own and OECD’s statistical measurements. For example one of the problems that analysis
should be aimed at finding out is related to why is this correlation moderate and not strong. Is it because the process
of automation is already underway in several countries or the structure of employment in different sectors of GDP is
significantly different in these countries?
Based on the research we have carried out, we can conclude that not only from a global perspective, digital
technologies may have an impact on the employment and unemployment on the labor market in the OECD countries,
but they also can have an impact on the labor market of transport sector. In the field of freight transport it is estimated
that 3 to 6 % of the workforce in the OECD counties is employed in the transport sector. The impact of digital
technologies on this workforce is, according to Blix, determined by three scenarios. These scenarios focus on the area
of autonomous vehicles.
First scenario is called “Medium skills, medium autonomy”. In this scenario the share of autonomous vehicles is
limited. Furthermore, the scenario points out that not all jobs are subject to automation and in some cases human
flexibility can be more cost effective than multi-purpose automation. In another words, loading and unloading of cargo
outside of cities can be easily automated, but the same tasks carried out inside the cities could prove costly and
ineffective.
Second scenario is called “low skill, high autonomy”. In this scenario a large share of tasks is still performed by
humans, but the skills needed to perform the tasks are low. For example a human driver is less able to keep the same
speed of the optimal speed for fuel consumption compared to machines. Modern software can calculate the most fuel
efficient driving in ways that are impossible for humans. In this case the technology, if implemented can further reduce
the need for human driving. In this scenario the human work will be concentrated around non-routine work that is
costly to automate. It is also estimated that some work will even require more skills than today, for example, repairing
machines and vehicles could require a combination of software skills as well as understanding of mechanics.
 Roman Chinoracký et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 994–1001 1001
8 Chinoracky, Corejova / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

Third scenario “high skill, high autonomy” points out that if the freight transport labor goes towards automation,
the decline in the amount of jobs could be similar to how jobs in the manufacturing industry have declined overtime.
The driving forces behind the lob losses in this scenario could stem from: substantially better safety records than
human drivers, lower labor costs and less traffic congestions if transport logistics improved and vehicles also drive
during the night.
Based upon the facts we have stated in chapter 4, we can conclude that the labor market in the freight transport
sector can potentially change. A large degree of this change depends on the skill level of jobs and the amount of less
skilled work could decline dramatically

Acknowledgements

This contribution was undertaken as a part of the research projects 1/0518/19 VEGA Research on the impacts of
the development of the digital economy on the competitiveness of enterprises in the knowledge society and 1/0152/18
VEGA Business and business models and platforms in the digital environment.

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