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Visualizing and Predicting Reliability of Control Valves based on Simulation

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DOI: 10.1109/SPC.2018.8704134

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 2018 IEEE Conference on Systems, Process and Control (ICSPC 2018), 14–15 December 2018, Melaka, Malaysia
Visualizing and Predicting Reliability of Control
Valves based on Simulation
Nirbhay Mathur
Department of Electric and Electronic Department
Universiti Technologi PETRONAS
Tronoh,Perak,Malaysia
Email: nirbhaymathur2@gmail.com
Azrina Abd Aziz
Department of Electric and Electronic Department
Universiti Technologi PETRONAS
Tronoh,Perak,Malaysia
Abstract—An industrial plant assembled with many compo-
nents, standby systems, sensors, controlling components to make
smooth operation of plants. Losses produced by unplanned
downtime may leads to major problems. Although, control valves
which are used to control the rate of flow for pressure or liquid is
an essential part of the plants operation. Since to reduce the losses
or downtime damage, high reliability and standby availability
is required to monitor. Hence, it requires some prediction
which can express the likelihood of the events in the terms of
quantitative methods. This research performs the prediction for
reliability on the control instruments and its availability that
is visualized for an quantitative prospective. By using Weibull
distribution and calculating pdf and cdf for shape and size
parameters for prediction and estimation of the consequences of
these failure depends on the control valve assembled in process
plant. Validating with estimation maximization(EM) technique
and fitting it in curve to achieve 95% prediction accuracy. This
research will give practical assessments of reliability of control
valve for better actions and higher reliable redundancy.
Index Terms—Reliability, Control Valves, Stiction error,
Weibull distribution, Visualization, BathTub Curve
I. I NTRODUCTION
There are thousands of control loops in typical modern
process plants. These control loops are designed to stabilize
the process at specific operating conditions. The efficiency and
performances is influenced on each loop based on quality of
the plant operations.
Control valve is the most common actuators for the process
regulations and manipulations. Control valve is assembled by
following components such as valve body, valve seat and valve
plug. According to the study about 30% of all control loop
suffers from valve nonlinearity problems, such as stiction,
hystersis and deadband [1].For all types of non linearities in
control valve, stiction is the most common and one of the long-
standing problems in the process industry.Stiction oscillation
can also increase operation cost in proportion to the deviation
[2]. Pneumatic control valve are still used most widely in the
process industries, due to their lower cost and simplicity [3].
978-1-5386-6327-1/18/$31.00 ©2018 IEEE
Vijanth S. Asirvadam
Department of Electric and Electronic Department
Universiti Technologi PETRONAS
Tronoh,Perak,Malaysia
Email:vijanth sagayan@utp.edu.my
Rosdiazli Ibrahim
Department of Electric and Electronic Department
Universiti Technologi PETRONAS
Tronoh,Perak,Malaysia
Although there is no way that failures can be totally
neglected. Every engineered object is unreliable in the sense
that it will fail sooner or later, even with the best design,
construction, maintenance and operation [4].
Failures occur in an uncertain manner and are influenced by
factors such as design, manufacture or construction, mainte-
nance, and operation. As the process of deterioration leading
to failure occurs in an uncertain manner, the concept of relia-
bility requires a dynamic and probabilistic framework. Thus,
reliability is defined as the ability of a system or a component
to perform its required functions under stated conditions for
a specified period of time. The study of reliability can be
divided into qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative study
mainly concerns qualitative analysis of failure mechanism and
reliability management. The quantitative study mainly focuses
on building probabilistic failure model on the base of historic
failure data. Therefore, field failure data and test data are of
great importance in reliability engineering.
This research focus on quantitative analysis of control valves
by predicting its reliability. This research paper is divided
into four sections, Section 1, The introduction, Section 2,
Presenting literature reviews and previous work done, Section
3, represents the methods used for Reliability analysis and
Section 4 discuses about the results.
II. R ELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND ITS COMPONENTS
This study conducted a number of considerations and prob-
lems are phased currently in reliability which create problems
in everyday life. Reliability can be considered as fundamental
attribute for the safe operation of any modern technological
system.There are many diverse types of the system and its
protective barriers are placed as safeguard from the hazard
posed by the system operation,within a multiple-barrier con-
cepts [5].
The research is conducted which develop a methodology
that permit the system reliability analysts to conduct RAM
analysis of the system to model, analyze and predict the
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 2018 IEEE Conference on Systems, Process and Control (ICSPC 2018), 14–15 December 2018, Melaka, Malaysia

Fig. 1. Process Plant

behavior of industrial system in more realistic and consistent Fig. 2. Structure of pneumatic control valve
manner through a Markovian approach [6].
This research, outlines a new approach for reliability, avail-
error can be denoted by
ability, maintainability and to understand the behavior of
system. This approach is based on a new life cycle model
𝑒=𝑖−ℎ (1)
for product development and integrates this model into the
safety life cycle of IEC 61508 [7]. where 𝑖 is the normalized input signal (0 ≤ 𝑖 ≤ 1) and ℎ is
the normalized valve travel (0 ≤ ℎ ≤ 1)., then the following
III. FAILURE MODE CLASSIFICATION
equation describes the time-delay
To consider the failure mode, in this research single tank ⎧
process plant is used and its all connected components along  𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑒, 0) for 𝑧 < −𝑧𝑚𝑎𝑥
with control valve (highlighted in red color) is shown in Fig. 1. 𝑑𝑧 ⎨
= 𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑒, 0) for 𝑧 > 𝑧𝑚𝑎𝑥 (2)
There are two aspects to consider the state of the art of failure 𝑑𝑡 
⎩
𝑒 for ∣𝑧∣ ≤ 𝑧𝑚𝑎𝑥
mode analysis. First approach is selected methods which are
discussed and assessed in general to define an appropriate where the variable 𝑧 can be viewed as a relative pressure (it
techniques for the required failure mode classification. Other is the time-delay state variable). From above equation, it state
approach focus on existing work of the application of failure that when absolute valve of variable 𝑧 is below a certain limit
mode classification to control valves in specific is evaluated value 𝑧𝑚𝑎𝑥 the valve stem does not move [9].
[8].
The two most likely critical faults are: Deadband and hysteresis
∙ valve plug wear Dead band is caused by mechanical backlash and static fric-
∙ valve stiction tion. Backlash is lost motion due to slop in valve linkage.
Nonlinear phenomenon in control valve are one of the main Since, the control error can be computed as
source for control performance degradation in process con- {
𝑒 − 𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛(𝑒) for∣𝑒∣ > 𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑
trol and this nonlinearities results essentially from friction 𝑒= (3)
phenomena. This friction is evidence by stiction or stick - 0 for∣𝑒∣ ≤ 𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑
slip motion, dead band, hysteresis (backlash), time -delay and where 𝑒𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑 is a half from the measured dead band.
actuator control saturation [9].
In this research valve stiction is considered as failure mode Dynamics In here dynamics is defined by a first-order
to predict the reliability of process plant which can be effected system with a velocity limitation as
due to linked in either series or parallel connected with { 𝑒
control valves. The valve stiction model was programmed in 𝑑ℎ 𝑚𝑖𝑛(∣ ∣, 𝑉𝑚𝑎𝑥 )𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛(𝑒) 𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑑∣𝑧∣ > 𝑧𝑚𝑎𝑥
= 𝜏 (4)
the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment using S-function and 𝑑𝑡 0 𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑑∣𝑧∣ ≤ 𝑧𝑚𝑎𝑥
standard blocks. The main Simulink model with the stem set
-point signal as the valve input and the actual stem position where, ℎ is the valve stem position,𝜏 is the time constant and
as the valve output. Simulation of control Valve is shown in 𝑣𝑚𝑎𝑥 is the maximum relative speed. Need to note that velocity
Fig 2. is set zero when the time-delay state variable 𝑧 is inside the
Based on the most critical nonlinearities, a first -order ‘delay-time zone’.
linear dynamic model can be added with nonlinearities. As shown in Fig.3. dead band is simulated and simulated
with control valve position to justify the stiction error during
Friction and delay real time process in industry process plant.
The time -delay cannot be represented as it is done classically After looking at output response of process plant with
because it depends on the position control error. The position including stiction error, some error are noticed as shown in

55
 2018 IEEE Conference on Systems, Process and Control (ICSPC 2018), 14–15 December 2018, Melaka, Malaysia

Fig. 3. Simulated output for Dead Band in Control Valve

Fig. 4. Simulated output after implementing stiction error in control plant

Fig. 4. Further more considering these error that can cause
the unsuitability of control valve. The data was collected from
simulated process plant and processed further to visualize the
reliability and end of life for control valve in single tank
process plant.
IV. R ELIABILITY AND R ISK A NALYSIS P REDICTION
Reliability design have multiple problems and often com-
peting objectives, however some universal ones, such as relia-
bility(to be maximized) and cost (to be minimized) is required
to perform [22]. A reliable system or product stands for the
assurance of the system to avoid the failure or to provide
successful operation. But, every engineered object is unreliable
or dependent on other components that will leads them to fail
sooner or later [10].
The study of reliability can be divided in to two parts
named as qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative study
mainly concerns qualitative analysis of failure mechanism
and reliability management. Where as the quantitative study
mainly focus on building probabilistic failure model on the
base of historic failure data. Therefore, field failure data and
test data both holds great importance in reliability engineering.
A. Terminology and Reliability Definition
Reliability and risk assessment method have developed over
a number of years from a variety of different initiatives.
Reliability can be defined as : ‘the probability that an item
(components, equipment, or system) will operate without
failure for a stated period of time under specified conditions’
[11].
1) Risk Assessment: Risk assessment is strongly used for
quantitatively process which describes the risk under system-
atics process. Hazard and uncertainty are two very important
elements for characterizing the risk [12].
2) PRA Characteristics: PRA is the most accurate tool for
assessing system reliability. It helps in decision making to
balance reliability and risk, after looking at old techniques
with current reliability engineering in contrast of PRA is multi-
disciplinary method to investigate uncertainty for systems
operation and failures [13]–[15].
As mentioned earlier, the experience occurred in industrial
accidents in last few decades clearly notify the human and
organization factors which play significant role in system
failure and accidents in the life cycle of a system [16]–[18].

56
 2018 IEEE Conference on Systems, Process and Control (ICSPC 2018), 14–15 December 2018, Melaka, Malaysia
B. Availability
Availability of a system can be defined as, when system 1 RateOfFlow
Failure in RateOfFlow
failure can be tolerated and repair can be instigated, an
6
important measure of the system performance is the system

Time−ranked observation
availability represented as: 11

𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹
𝐴= (5) 16

𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 − 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅
21

where, Mean time to failure (MTTF) is reciprocal of the failure 26

rate i.e, 𝑀 𝑇 𝑇 𝐹 = 1/𝜆. MTTR is the average time taken from

the failure of the system to its start-up [11]. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

time
C. Maintainability
Maintainability can be defined as the probability of the Fig. 5. Plot for observation of dataset consisting of Rate of flow and Failure
system that will be restored to a fully operational condition rate flow.
within a specified period of time. Maintainability analysis
is carried out to provide information for maintenance
planning, test and inspection scheduling and logistics support 1.0
[11].Taking inputs from reliability predictions and failure
mode and effects analysis trade-off studies will be made to 0.8

evaluate the overall effect in term of cost and availability

of the different design options. The procedure for the Fn(x)
0.6

maintainability analysis of system described in MIL-HDBK

0.4
472 [19]. Assuming exponential distribution of time to failure
and time to repair, the MTBF and MTTR of the system can 0.2

be calculated respectively as:

0.0
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝑅
𝑀= (6) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
𝑀 𝑇 𝐵𝐹 + 𝑀 𝑇 𝑇 𝑅 time

where, MTTR = Mean Time To Repair and MTBF = Mean
Time Between Failure.
V. M ETHODS & R ESULTS
A. Methods
1) Data Set: To conduct this research, data was collected
from simulation of single tank process plant. After collecting
data from output of simulation, data filtering was conduced
to make data in usable form. In analyzed data, data set was
categorized in two modes first represents (Rate of Flow) and
another (Failure in Rate of Flow) as shown in Fig 5.,time-
to-failure measurement which contains the censured measure-
ments (say 𝑛 = 227). These data represents failure of control
valve due to stiction produced while operating. In censoring
process, based on time measurement were taken, where failure
have not occurred.
2) Analysis Model: To analyze plant data to predict reli-
ability, TTF(time to Failure) measurement were satisfactory
predicted by the 2-parameter Weibull distribution. Since as-
sumptions for choosing models depend on different cases and
different type of datasets.
The pdf of 𝑓 (𝑡) for the Weibull distribution in which the
random variable 𝑇 , is the lifetime of a control valve 𝑃 [𝑇 =
𝑡] = 𝑓 (𝑡):
( )𝛽−1
𝛽 𝑡 𝑡 𝛽
𝑓 (𝑡) = 𝑒−( 𝜂 ) (7)
𝜂 𝜂
Fig. 6. Plot for empirical cumulative frequency distribution.
For analyzing reliability, 𝑡 is total operating time and 𝛽, 𝜂
are the “shape”and “scale”parameters and each interpreted
by using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate
Weibull distribution (𝛽,ˆ 𝜂ˆ).
This allows to estimate center of mass of the Weibull (PDF)
for 𝑇 , 𝐸[𝑇 ]. As per recent study which demonstrate that for
most dataset, MLE is more likely to be used more in reliable
estimates of Weibull parameters than Median Rank Regression
(MRR) [20]. Now looking at ECF (empirical cumulative
frequency) distribution for the complete TTF measurements
as shown in Fig 6. Next, plotting probability plot which can
help in interpreting the distribution modelling.
As shown in Fig 7, Weibull distribution is used to fit dataset
and linearity plot is plotted, which state the best fit for current
dataset. Now, Weibull model is used to fit for data by using
Lifedata.MLE () function of SPREDA package.
The estimated parameters are transformed parameters in
this model which are 𝜇 (Intercept) and 𝜎 (sigma) as refereed
in [21]. To achieve the MLEs for the Weibull consisting
parameters need to perform back-transform of these estimates,
each for 𝛽ˆ and 𝜂ˆ as mentioned in Table 1.
After calculating estimated values, 95% confidence limits
for 𝛽ˆ and 𝜂ˆ can be obtained by using the function and

57
 2018 IEEE Conference on Systems, Process and Control (ICSPC 2018), 14–15 December 2018, Melaka, Malaysia
Confidence Region
Weibull

−
−
−−
0.99
−
−
−−
−−
− −
−
−−
−−−−− 1.4
−−−−−−−−
−−−−− −−
−− −
Unreliability, F(t)=1−R(t)

0.59
−−− −−−−−−
−−−−−−−− −−−−
−−−−−− −−−
−−
−−−−−−− −− 1.3
−−−−−− −−−−−−−−−−−−
−−−−−−− −
−−−−−− −−−−
0.14
−−−−− −−−−

Beta
− − − − − − − −− −−−−
−−−−
−−−−
1.2 0.05
−−−
−−−
0.03 −−−
−
− 0.50
−−
−− 1.1
−
− 0.90
−
− 0.95
0.00
−
1.0
0 0 0 7 148

Time 24 26 28 30 32 34 36

Eta

Fig. 7. Probability plot for best fit distribution with linearity scale. Fig. 8. Weibull Confidence Region.

TABLE I TABLE III

ESTIMATED VALUES FOR SHAPE AND SIZE PARAMETERS OF W EIBULL MTTF ESTIMATED VALUES WITH USING W EIBULL DISTRIBUTION
DISTRIBUTION .

Parameters lower estimated upper

𝛽ˆ 1.2113 MTTF 27.59012
𝜂ˆ 29.4012 MTTF (Bootstrap) 25.33775 27.59012 29.80184
Bootstrap Statistics Original Bias Std. Error
27.59012 0.0351904 1.139824
Mean 25.81706
depending on that confidence limits for 𝜎
ˆ&𝜇
ˆ MLEs predicted
values are shown in Table 2.
later , in the life of this component or system (simulated plant
TABLE II system).
ESTIMATED VALUES FOR 𝛽 AND 𝜂.
95% Confidence intervals is calculated for MTTF, which
can obtain relatively accurate estimates using bootstrapping.
Parameters lower estimated upper [21].
𝛽ˆ 1.0764 1.2113 1.3632 However, the dataset shows small properties of censored
measurements, since the model can be computed for more
𝜂ˆ 26.2111 29.4012 32.9795
formal tests that could be conducted [21].
Now, looking at Fig. 11, plot represents that the Weibull
Plot shown in Fig.8,is generated by using distribution is flexible in that it can approximate the Expo-
𝑊 𝑒𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑙.𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑓 𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒.𝑅𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛(), which defines the joint nential distribution (when 𝛽 = 1) as well as right-skewed
uncertainty for Weibull estimated parameters for 95 % and symmetric unimodal distributions. Along with that, the
confidence region. The probability defined function was used
to obtain the probability level (1 − 𝛼) and the value ranges
between 0 and 1.
On looking for failure rate𝑓 (𝑡) plot in Fig.9, it can be con-
0.04
0.04
Failure rate

Failure rate

0.03

cluded that, the value of 𝛽ˆ = 1.2113 is near to 1.00 and 95%

0.03

0.02 0.02

approximation confidence interval for 𝛽ˆ of [1.0764,1.2113]

0.01 0.01

0.00 0.00

contains 1, that indicates there is no evidence for failure 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Time Time
predominantly occurring because of to aging or wear out
ˆ is not high, or failure can be caused in early
effects (𝑖.𝑒.𝛽)
ˆ is not low.
phases, (𝑖.𝑒.𝛽) 0.05

The Reliability plot 𝑅(𝑡) describes likelihood of failure

0.04
Failure rate

0.03

during the next time occurrence (𝑖.𝑒, 𝑑𝑅/𝑑𝑡 = −ℎ(𝑡)𝑅(𝑡)) 0.02

0.01

as shown in Fig. 10. 0.00

Now, after looking at the 𝛽ˆ value which is slightly above

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Time
1 and below 2, it could be assumed that, there is a not large
increase in the failure rate 𝑓 (𝑡) with increasing time (t). A Fig. 9. Plot of failure hazard function ℎ(𝑡) for lower, estimated and higher
abrupt increase in the hazard function ℎ(𝑡) impose earlier, than predicted values.

58
 2018 IEEE Conference on Systems, Process and Control (ICSPC 2018), 14–15 December 2018, Melaka, Malaysia
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
1.0 1.0

0.8 0.8
Authors acknowledge the support of Universiti Teknologi
Reliability

Reliability
0.6 0.6
PETRONAS for providing resources. Author is thankful to the
0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2 supervision for helping in simulation and developing reliability

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
prediction model.
Time Time
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VI. C ONCLUSION
From the study simulation of control valve stiction and
its effects based on the reliability of a part which is the
likelihood for the system which will be able to survive in
service for a required duration can be visualized. Reliability
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