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We're living through the first world cyberwar-
but just haven’t called it that Martin Belam
1 As someone who studied history, I’ve had a lingering curiosity about how historians of the future
2 will view our times. It is easy to imagine textbooks in a hundred years with chapters that start with Reagan
3 and Thatcher and end with the global financial crisis and called something like The Western Neoliberal
4 Consensus 1979-2008.
5 But contemporaries seldom refer to events with these names, or can see the sharp lines that the future
6 will draw. It wouldn’t have seemed obvious with the capture of Calais in 1347 that this decisive siege was
7 just one early development in a dynastic struggle that would come to be known as the hundred-years’ war.
8 This always makes me wonder what broader patterns we might be missing in our own lives, and I’ve
9 come round to thinking that we might already be living through the first world cyberwar – it’s just that we
10 haven’t acknowledged or named it yet.
11 What might a timeline of that war look like to a future historian? Well, 2007 seems like a good bet as
12 a starting point – with a concerted series of cyber-attacks on Estonia. These were particularly effective,
13 because the Baltic state has pushed so much of its public life online. The attacks were generally regarded to
14 have come from Russia with state approval. That’s just one reason why I suspect cyberwarfare will provoke
15 endless debates among historians.
16 Cyberwarfare is clearly a front where nation states will try to gain advantage over each other and
17 make plans for attack and defence. But, like espionage, it is a murky world where it is hard for outsiders to
18 get an exact grasp on what is being done. Nation states seldom openly claim credit for hacking.
19 Cyberwarfare is a front where nation states will try to gain advantage over each other, and make
20 plans for attack. In 2008 there were events that a historian might weave into a narrative of a global cyberwar,
21 when several underwater internet cables were cut during the course of the year, interrupting internet
22 communication and particularly affecting the Middle East. Some have argued these were accidents caused by
23 ships dragging their anchors, but they mostly remain unsolved mysteries, with the suspicion that only state
24 actors would have the required equipment and knowledge to target the cables. Of course, it might have just
25 been sharks.
26 In 2010 the Stuxnet worm was used to attack Iran’s nuclear program. Carried on Microsoft Windows
27 machines, and specifically targeting software from Siemens, Stuxnet was reported to have successfully
28 damaged the fast-spinning centrifuges used to develop nuclear material in Iran. Analysts at the time thought
29 the computer virus so sophisticated that it must have been developed with state support – with fingers
30 frequently pointed at the US and/or the Israelis.
31 Another event from 2010, the WikiLeaks American embassy cables release, which the Guardian
32 participated in the publication of, would be irresistible for a historian to refer to in this context. It is also one
33 of the things that makes the first world cyberwar different from conventional warfare – the mix of nation
34 states being involved with pressure groups, whistleblowers and hackers. As well as the state apparatus, a
35 history of this period of electronic warfare would have to name Julian Assange, Chelsea Manning, Edward
36 Snowden, Anonymous and the Syrian Electronic Army as key players.
37 We are definitely living through something global in scope. North Korea has been suspected of
38 hacking as a way to achieve diplomatic goals. The FBI publicly accused it of hacking Sony Pictures in 2014,
39 exposing confidential company information. It was a hack of a Japanese company, targeted by an Asian
40 state, with the aim of pressuring the US arm of the company over a movie.
41 Along the way there have been other equally odd quirks of war – the infected USB keys distributed
42 at a US military base in 2008, or the curious laptop theft at a facility in Scotland that had recently received an
43 official Chinese delegation.
44 The one that historians will be unable to ignore though is the 2016 US election campaign being
45 influenced by alleged hacked and leaked emails – and the open speculation there was an attempt to hack into
46 election counting machines by a foreign power. It might be unprecedented, but it isn’t going to go away.
Theguardian.com (30 December 2016)