Some important distributions + Discrete probability distributions: + Bernoulli distribution + Binomial distribution + Hypergeometric distribution + Poisson distribution + Continuous probability distributions: + Normal distribution * Chi-Square distribution * t-distribution + F-distribution Landon Vomable with bumasy utlome. Bernoulli distribution follows, o Berrmonlli dish Tossing acoin Playing a sit machine Outoome ofa game po provatilly f succor ry 5 y Sp tf xe] (Succe plX=x = g . Yr lif of 0 (Poibe) Bernall RVBinomial distribution we home 'n” indefrdede evel, frobobibly smccen te o~ widlividend ered & fp, whet & probebibly fx" succenes ( Bimemiel ole J cy Bonorsol RV Bunawaal [%, p) Xv Brim al (7, f) Binomial distribution + If the probability of a success is p, for n independent Bernoulli trails, the number of successes “x” follows a binomial distribution. ae fe L2%b-»% 5 ogpst inf 2 . | E(x) »p Ge A we | Vor(( X= oft yy) /y \ ear \ - L - = > (2) (fF 7) ae tks 2 Pip | x20 8 \ Binomial distribution Q (a= 70 gama; pb: 0% @ E70 gone) I is Lp Gomes () wkd St, Poobabilly op werong $ P{ X= 5) o) 5 me”) [r0/ QO Prob of vinmey ofleot Of vren\ 2 [- PLK<50) = = O-0a4 2D gowrees Z /- r(X< 49) > 90-9697QU) frie yp Renney ve Y . \ of x<50) = PUX S49) = 0-9 i- P(X <50) I ASTY # Binomial distribution: example ye Ley a © Gonsider/an infinitely large population) Percent of defective parts (e.g. (e9., a manufacturing process) bolts) produced isp) + For a candomlysampleofmitems, the number of defective parts x followsa Bérard. lisfrnilbeFoors Binomial distribution + A firm claim that 99% of their products mest specifications. To support this claim, an inspector draws a random sample of 20 items and ships the lot it the entire sample is in conformance. Find the probability of committing the following errors: + Refusing to ship a lot evan though 90% of the items are in —. Type J error conformance, J + Now consider that only 95% of the items are conforming. Find the probability of shipping the lot. stell 9% 2 He theme ona conlfcnminp Hare sone fost that ta Int oionat deffed (Tyke I oma)Binomial distribution pnt tappey te Lt) = Pf teact ome cofct) af tome fective) = I~ P( X= 20) L Boonincel (1 229, } on) = Of8e © Eri whom ey 157 oh Phe thine oe cnlperming, tue 4 hl Somer poste that mn Dy obefped . P(g He OE) = (ah tome coferng) = P(x=20) Xv Banaimak (n= 20, p= 0-95) <= 0:35P “me fraction non-conforming =f mmanpomiy Hors gg (4) i‘ prob 4 nen confforenip La lpttnt) nches-neene fx fed ede teed then) =F p<) pcos) [Ac] = 4Example oe (00 + Arandom sample of/100 items is drawn from a production p = 0708 process every half hour. The fraction non-conforming of the process is known to bé0.03) What is the probability that the / sample fraction non-conforming is <=0.04? + What is the probability that the sample fraction non-conforming is between [0.02, 0.04]? “ =P (XS4) = 0479 l, Besa (100, #03) Hypergeometric distribution 1 ~ Ne Pale Papalotoos | N= 8 br 1 af coms on O cdegory 4. anki D2 4p ke shdents ot Y 89 ilema wei Be ton doon xk fh i | somple thst lamp “fhe coleporg | abot ~ L, Hyfegemmsbrie. dik (NO,W \ N/\ N-4 / + Finite population (alsorcalled“lot’) with N bolts and D defective items + Ifwe select a without replacement, then the number of defective bolts in the sample, x, follows a : Example + Alot of size(30)contains 3 non-conforming items. If you select a yonen Sample of 5 items from the lot without replacement, what is the , distribution of the number of non-conforming items in the sample? + Suppose you will reject the lot (i.¢., not ship it to your customer) if you find the sample contains one or more non-conforming items. Whatis the probability of rejecting the lot? m= 5 tfeme P(X 21) = -P(x<1) = /-P x= 9)feotlyExample + Out of 200 bolts, 5 are defective. Determine the probability that arandomly selected sample (without replacement) of size 10 my will have no defective bolts. SES Fg Oy qlee as Example 0 pose ribaie = Bini ofr =Poisson distribution / Hod Cucfgmns — arrivenp of 4% Powy sfre foe howe # vehicles — enftryrg — eve hoon q ‘4 : t 4 dfut an Seimt enpin Oe pure tg te on each poe Y 4 ook A fever occuniy m0 pod gf tone on owe Bp Preston —ohsf: fx_fowr Poisson distribution + Number of events occurring in a time interval or region with the average occurrence rate of events of J follows a Poisson “distribution je Dale provetePoisson distribution + Poisson distribution is used when inspecting a single unit/unit area that may have one or more defects. + Number of times a machine breaks down in a factory + Surface defects on an additively manufactured component Some more examples + Binomial: Given a population or a very large lot and the probability of defective items is p, what is the probability of getting x defective items in a random sample of n items? + Hypergeometric: Given a finite lot of 1 items containing D defective items, what is the probability of getting x defective items in a random sample of n items is drawn from the lot without replacement? + Poisson: Given the average number of defects observed on an item is 2, what is the probability of obtaining x defects on a randomly inspected item?