Short Term Load Forecasting Method of Smart Grid Based on RB
XGboost Algorithm
Xiaojun Zhang∗ Hao Fu
State Grid Xinjiang Company Limited State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power
Electric Power Research Institute, Company, Urumqi City, 830011,
Urumqi City, 830011, Xinjiang, China Xinjiang, China
523389980@qq.com 564530512@163.com
Shuqiang Zhou
State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power
Company Urumqi Power Supply
Company, Urumqi City, 830011,
Xinjiang, China
zhoushuqiang@mail.dlut.edu.cn
ABSTRACT
China is a big power consumer, and the design of smart grid is
becoming more and more important for our power consumption
peak. RB xgboost algorithm is used to predict the grid load during
the peak period of smart grid. RB xgboost algorithm is becoming
more and more mature, and intelligent algorithm and deep learning
are booming, The key point is that the analysis and prediction of
power grid load performance has brought new opportunities and
application methods. RB xgboost algorithm network, which takes
a lot of time. Often for an algorithm, if it wants to play the great-
est role, it needs to spend a lot of effort on adjusting parameters.
The experimental results show that the short-term load forecast-
ing method based on RB xgboost algorithm improves the power
consumption efficiency by 13.6%. For the short-term power grid
load pressure at the peak of power consumption such as severe cold
and heat, grand festival days and so on, the corresponding power
accidents still occur from time to time. With the diversification of
power market, for the regulation and prediction of power price,
the RB xgboost algorithm prediction method does not depend on
the input variables and the expression of load prediction. It can
find the trend of load data in a large number of historical load data.
This paper analyzes, discusses and summarizes the power consump-
tion risk, so as to enrich the research results for high-voltage load
forecasting.
CCS CONCEPTS
• Applied computing; • Physical sciences and engineering; •
Engineering; • Computer-aided design;
∗ corresponding author
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or
classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed
for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation
on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM
must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish,
to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a
fee. Request permissions from permissions@acm.org.
AIAM2021, October 23–25, 2021, Manchester, United Kingdom
© 2021 Association for Computing Machinery.
ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-8504-6/21/10. . . $15.00
https://doi.org/10.1145/3495018.3495424
1474
Suzhou Wu
State Grid Xinjiang Company Limited
Electric Power Research Institute,
Urumqi City, 830011, Xinjiang, China
1311708565@qq.com
Dalu Sun
Beijing new energy central test
Technology Co., Ltd, Beijing City,
102600, Beijing, China
38828289@qq.com
KEYWORDS
Rb XGBOOST Algorithm, Smart Grid, Load Forecasting, Innovation
Mechanism
ACM Reference Format:
Xiaojun Zhang, Hao Fu, Suzhou Wu, Shuqiang Zhou, and Dalu Sun. 2021.
Short Term Load Forecasting Method of Smart Grid Based on RB XGboost
Algorithm. In 2021 3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence
and Advanced Manufacture (AIAM2021), October 23–25, 2021, Manchester,
United Kingdom. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 5 pages. https://doi.org/10.1145/
3495018.3495424
1 INTRODUCTION
With the rapid development of national economic construction,
the increasingly prominent energy problem has long been widely
concerned by all parties. As the main body of energy consumption,
in recent years, all social parties have made active efforts around
the capacity structure adjustment, optimized supply, green energy
conservation and other aspects of power resources [1-2]. As an im-
portant part of power system, power grid load forecasting has been
paid attention to by experts in the industry. From time series to the
application of machine learning models such as support vector ma-
chine, power grid load forecasting has made remarkable progress.
However, with the improvement of prediction accuracy require-
ments, the increase of data volume and the increase of influencing
factors [3-4].
Specifically, the optimal parameters obtained by random search
and grid search are rearranged and combined to obtain a new pa-
rameter matrix, and the optimal parameter combination is retrained
based on the principle of grid search [5-6]. In terms of serialization,
due to the huge time-consuming of manual search and the influence
of many subjective human factors, the manual search is upgraded
to Bayesian parameter global optimization. The model evaluates
many different power grid attributes, from practical integrated new
sensors, power grid monitoring and control evaluation of switch-
ing and communication technology to smart grid prediction and
analysis of power companies, and then better. The research work
on power grid load in China is slightly later than that in developed
countries such as Europe and the United States [7-8].
AIAM2021, October 23–25, 2021, Manchester, United Kingdom
The innovation of this paper is to propose the current smart grid
short-term load forecasting method based on RB xgboost algorithm.
With the continuous growth of power consumption, the power grid
needs to build more power plants, the corresponding construction
and power generation costs are also increasing, and it also causes
some pressure on the environment. When environmental factors
or other interference factors are large, the above methods have
large deviation in power grid load forecasting, resulting in low
accuracy of forecasting. The shortcomings of traditional prediction
methods also provide further development space for the research
of prediction analysis. The purpose of this study is to find a new
way of smart grid short-term load forecasting method based on RB
xgboost algorithm.
2 SMART GRID MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
UNDER INTERNET TECHNOLOGY
2.1 Smart Grid Application Analysis
In recent years, the development of smart grid faces many chal-
lenges, such as new energy grid connection, load increase and
access of distributed power generation and other equipment. The
existence of these factors increases the difficulty and complexity
of safe and reliable operation of power grid. Sandra, B. demand
response refers to the behavior of power consumers to adjust or
change their habitual electricity use mode in order to obtain certain
economic benefits under the guidance of electricity price policy
or incentive policy [9]. Kumral o also has further optimization
in the management and technology of power system, mainly in-
cluding the optimization of power grid lines and the reasonable
prediction of transmission peak, so as to make more efficient use
of power resources. Moreover, with the continuous development
of urbanization and modernization in recent years, the demand for
power consumption is becoming more and more controllable and
predictable [10].
In recent years, environmental problems have also become in-
creasingly prominent. Good power grid intelligent forecasting plays
an important role in alleviating greenhouse gas emissions and air
pollution to a certain extent. At present, the term of power grid load
forecasting can be divided into medium and long-term forecast-
ing. We use theoretical methods and practical cases to analyze the
relevant cases of real estate, and statistically analyze the financial
indicators of some power market prices in China on the basis of data
and models. Power generation is controlled in the power system.
The imbalance between regional power generation and demand
often leads to system frequency deviation and inter regional tie line
power deviation from the planned value. The purpose of power
system control is that in the presence of disturbance, the system
operation can still meet the established requirements and maintain
a certain stability. Proper application of this function can design an
effective algorithm for real estate market transaction risk prediction
in risk management model, which has the following forms.
sÍ
(u,i)∈T (rui − rui ′ )2
RMSE = (1)
|T |
1475
Xiaojun Zhang et al.
The calculated value of the algorithm is, and the formula is as
follows; Í ′
(u,i)∈T |rui − rui |
MAE = (2)
T
The following formula shall be used for the test:
Í
|R(u) ∩ T (u)|
Pr ecision = u ∈U Í (3)
u ∈U |R(u)|
2.2 Load Forecasting Algorithm Analysis
In addition, in the traditional forecasting research, in addition to
statistics, researchers establish the corresponding time series model
by combining the theories of random process and mathematical
statistics, that is, according to the potential relationship between
historical data and time, so as to realize the forecasting of power
grid load, The research shows that the time series analysis method
can better represent the prediction and analysis of power grid load
when the environmental factors are small. Boost algorithm is an
improved method based on different calculation methods on the
gradient of gbdt algorithm. We use the default parameters of XGB
Library in Python for model training. As our control experiment,
this paper maintains the data set completely consistent with RB
xgboost model on four baseline experiments, and optimizes the
parameters of each model. In the process of model establishment,
The input characteristics and output targets are consistent with the
experiments in this paper.
3 SMART GRID ANALYSIS UNDER
COMPUTER ALGORITHM
3.1 Smart Grid Load Analysis
The overall load adjustment goal of the system is realized, and
the fairness of the response among air conditioning individuals is
guaranteed. In the simulation, the decentralized control strategy is
considered in the primary frequency modulation of power system
to provide fast frequency regulation service. The simulation results
show that the air conditioner can quickly respond to the system
frequency change caused by the sudden change of demand, and
can greatly reduce the output and frequency deviation of primary
frequency regulation unit. Finally, based on the hierarchical model
predictive control and market bidding mechanism, the flexible load
can participate in the secondary frequency regulation service of
power system through electricity price incentive. In the data pre-
processing stage, the weighted least squares fitting, recursive least
squares, orthogonal function least squares and small array least
squares are compared and analyzed. Finally, the weighted least
square method is selected to fill the data gap.
3.2 Grid Load Forecasting in Power
Consumption Management
Medium and long-term power grid load forecasting belongs to the
content of national strategy or a regional level, and is an important
part of the future development planning of its region. In addition,
the medium and long-term power grid load is also closely related to
the local surrounding international and regional situation, market
structure distribution, expected economic trend, policy and insti-
tutional arrangements, etc. The overall development trend of load
Short Term Load Forecasting Method of Smart Grid Based on RB XGboost Algorithm
Figure 1: the optimal capacity allocation
forecasting algorithm is as follows: the research on classical fore-
casting algorithm is less and less, and it is gradually replaced by
traditional and new algorithms with clear mathematical theory and
model: the traditional algorithm and new algorithm are improved,
and the traditional algorithm and new algorithm are combined
and cross applied; The comprehensive algorithm combined with
a variety of forecasting algorithms is widely used, and the charac-
teristics of various models complement each other to improve the
load forecasting accuracy and reduce the forecasting risk, but it
also leads to the increase of operation quantity and the reduction
of operation efficiency.
4 PREDICTION MODEL ANALYSIS UNDER
SMART GRID
4.1 Power Generation Prediction Model
Analysis
Firstly, on the generation side, the model predictive control is ap-
plied to the real-time adjustment of secondary frequency modu-
lation power of AGC unit in power system. For single region and
multi region power system models, ultra short-term load forecast-
ing, unit economic cost and model predictive load frequency control
strategy of CPSL / cps2 standard are considered respectively. In grid
search, each parameter is sorted in order, similar to the grid, which
actually forms a high-dimensional matrix. In this grid, taking the
three parameters in the figure as an example, select N1 in the first
parameter, D1 in the second parameter and L1 in the third parame-
ter to train the model to obtain the accuracy of the model, and then
select Ni in the first parameter, D1 in the second parameter and L2
in the third parameter again to train the model, The accuracy of
this model model2 is obtained. The specific results are shown in
Figure 1
1476
AIAM2021, October 23–25, 2021, Manchester, United Kingdom
4.2 Future Smart Grid Prediction Modeling
On the other hand, there will be a large number of flexible loads in
the power grid in the future, which can stabilize the fluctuation of
new energy and "cut peak and fill valley" by adjusting their own
power consumption, so as to greatly reduce the power generation
and adjustment cost of traditional power plants. In the future smart
grid, power supply, energy storage and flexible load are intercon-
nected through power grid and communication network (energy
Internet). On this basis, the efficient, reliable and sustainable opera-
tion of power system can be realized by implementing intelligent
control strategy. The control action of future time-varying load
in advance can effectively reduce the frequency fluctuation and
stabilize the system frequency; Considering the control strategy
of CPS1 standard is beneficial to improve the frequency quality of
interconnected regional power grid. Secondly, on the demand side,
the estimation of steady-state power and distribution of heteroge-
neous air-conditioning polymers is studied. The research work of
power grid load forecasting is also carried out. The early research
on power grid load is mainly through the use of mathematical
tools, that is, mainly through statistical methods. Among them,
the traditional prediction research is mainly represented by the
trend analysis method, which mainly carries out the corresponding
data sorting, curve fitting and data prediction of future time nodes
through the relevant historical data of the industry. Trend analysis
method not only has a certain research in power grid load fore-
casting, but also has a wide range of applications in such as stock
market trend analysis and enterprise financial statement analysis.
The specific results are shown in Figure 2
In terms of time and climate, the severe cold climate in winter in
the north and the high temperature season in summer in the south
are still the high incidence period of "power shortage". Therefore, it
is also of great significance to strengthen the short-term prediction
of regional power load. In view of this, on the one hand, all localities
AIAM2021, October 23–25, 2021, Manchester, United Kingdom Xiaojun Zhang et al.

Figure 2: Comparison of running time

Table 1: Statistical table of sample library

Practical Courses Quantity Proportion

Too much emphasis on theory 17 94.44%
Less practical content 14 77.78%
Too few hours 17 94.44%
Content does not meet requirements 13 72.22%
Others 1 5.56%

and departments continue to strengthen the upgrading and transfor- grid, and can provide reference for short-term forecasting of power
mation of regional distribution network, especially in strengthening grid in the region to a certain extent. The specific results are shown
industrial distribution network. Relationship between peak load in Table 1
and maximum temperature. The relationship between peak load
and maximum temperature is most obvious in summer. Generally 5 CONCLUSIONS
speaking, when the temperature increases in summer, the load
Although this paper studies the short-term load forecasting method
increases due to the operation of air conditioning and other cool-
and mechanism of smart grid, due to the one-sided data that may
ing equipment. With the decrease of maximum temperature, the
be collected, there are great deficiencies in the content of this paper.
peak load also decreases gradually. The short-term prediction of
With the rapid development of national economic marketization,
power grid load emphasizes the timeliness. Especially in the major
the standard for judging the reliable operation of power grid is get-
national day, festivals, large-scale events and other power peak
ting higher and higher, so it is particularly important to maintain
short-term prediction is particularly important. In addition, the re-
the balance between supply and demand of power system. Power
search shows that due to the short-term prediction time and small
system load forecasting is an important basic work to maintain
environmental error, the accuracy of the results is relatively high.
the balance of power supply and demand, and its importance has
The effect of short-term load forecasting is more obvious than that
long been valued by industry experts. It plays a more and more
of medium and long-term forecasting and short-term forecasting.
important role in power consumption, planning and dispatching
In the selection of classification and recognition algorithms, this
of power grid system and ensuring safe and high-quality electric
paper compares bprb xgboost algorithm and elmanrb xgboost al-
energy. The result of power load forecasting is the basis of eco-
gorithm. Through specific theoretical and experimental analysis,
nomic dispatching and power market operation, and the level of
elmanrb xgboost algorithm has achieved good expected results in
power system load forecasting has gradually become an important
classification and recognition. In addition, the comparative analysis
symbol to measure whether a power related enterprise is moving
between the above algorithm and the current power grid prediction
towards modernization. Based on this factor, this paper discusses it
system in this area shows that, Elmanrb xgboost algorithm has
from both macro and micro aspects. There are still many steps to
good characterization ability in daily load forecasting of power
study the current RB xgboost algorithm, which can not be involved

1477
Short Term Load Forecasting Method of Smart Grid Based on RB XGboost Algorithm
because of space and personal ability. In addition, the practical ap-
plication effect of the relevant experiments of smart grid short-term
load forecasting method can only be compared with the traditional
model from the level of theory and simulation.
REFERENCES
[1] A, M, Baikulova, et al. The System of Development Programmes on Pre-School
and School Education in the Republic of Kazakhstan[J]. Interchange, 2016,
48(2),13-15.
[2] Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Uzunboylu, Gundogdu E G. A Content Analysis Study on
Pre-School Education and Instructional Technologies[J]. International Journal of
Innovative Research in Education, 2018, 5(4):119-128.
[3] Sandra, B, Ward, et al. An Investigation of Intervention Assistance Teams at a
Preservice Level[J]. School Psychology International, 2016, 19(3):279-286.
1478
AIAM2021, October 23–25, 2021, Manchester, United Kingdom
[4] Donaldson, A. L. Pre-Professional Training for Serving Children With ASD: An
Apprenticeship Model of Supervision[J]. Teacher Education & Special Education,
2015, 38(1):58-70.
[5] Lamis D A, Underwood M, D’Amore N. Outcomes of a Suicide Prevention Gate-
keeper Training Program Among School Personnel[J]. Crisis, 2016, 38(2):89-99.
[6] Nelson J, Bennewitz L. Special Education Teacher Training and Knowledge of
Behavior Assessment and Intervention Practices[J]. Estuarine Coastal & Shelf
Science, 2015, 81(4):544-554.
[7] James, Q, Affleck, et al. Expanding the Resource Concept: The Resource School[J].
Exceptional Children, 2016, 39(6),18-23.
[8] Moshe A. Inclusion Assistants in General Education Settings - A Model for In-
service Training[J]. Universal Journal of Educational Research, 2017, 5(2):209-216.
[9] Sandra, B, Ward, et al. An Investigation of Intervention Assistance Teams at a
Preservice Level[J]. School Psychology International, 2016, 19(3):279-286.
[10] Kumral O, Sahin A. Farabi Exchange Program in Higher Education with its
Purpose and Functionality: An Investigation through the Eyes of Pre-service
Teachers[J]. Journal of Higher Education and Science, 2017, 7(1):41-42.