Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
April, 2022
Index
1 Size of Opportunity
2 Investment Frameworks
4 Investment Strategy
2
Size of Opportunity
3
Size of Opportunity
~0.006 0.1
Every successive trillion dollar GDP is likely to take lesser number of years
*GDP is Nominal GDP. Source: MOAMC Internal Research 4
Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and
should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
NTDOP - Robust Long Term Compounder
84.0
78.5
SI Returns (CAGR)
40.0 41.0
NTDOP 16%
Nifty 500 11%
Alpha 5%
24.4
17.6
12.9 14.1
11.9
8.5
Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Mar-22
5
Source: MOAMC Internal Research, Data as on 31st March 2022
Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is forillustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy.
Rising per Capita Income = Larger Consumption Basket
3x Rise in Income = 10x Jump in Consumption Evolution of the household-income profile in India
Basic Spend
Discretionary Spend
4x 2220
Saving
10 x 1942
555
185
1110 1388
2.4x 12x
74.6
2011 to 2021
2011 2021 2011 2021
2.5x
Refrigerators Penetration (%) Washing Machines Penetration (%)
35
Per Capita
Income 15
2.2x 2x
15.5 7.3
India in
Deleveraging GST, 2017
Virtuous
Corporate Tax 8
COVID-19 Crisis,2020
Rate Cut Demand Recovery
Headwinds to Tailwinds
Corp Profit / GDP (%) The bad asset cycle for banks is now in reversal
7.8 20%
7.3 Gross NPLs (% of loans)
6.3
6.3 6.5 6.3 5.7
5.1 15%
5.4 5.5
4.9 5.1 Bad asset cycle in reversal
4.7 4.8
4.3 4.3 4.5 4.7
3.8 10%
3.5 3.5
3.0 3.0 2.8
2.2 2.4 5%
1.9
0%
FY23E
FY25E
FY22E
FY24E
FY02
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY16
FY18
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY99
FY03
FY07
FY11
FY15
FY19
FY97
FY98
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY23E
FY24E
25
ROE’s of listed companies make investments attractive 1.2 Gross D/E ratio of large listed companies goes down
Deleveraging cycle
20 1.0 largely played out
ROE's could hit 12.5% by Deleveraging cycle
FY22; highest seen in 7yrs 0.8
15
0.6
10
0.4
5
0.2
0 0.0
(%)
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22E
FY03
FY08
FY09
FY13
FY14
FY19
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY20
FY21
FY22E
(x)
9
Source: Jefferies, ACE Equity, RBI; Corp Profit/GSP ratio data in green shows bull case scenario (data in black is base case scenario)
PLI Schemes - 8x jump expected in GDP contribution during FY22-27
Capex breakup of 111 lakh Crore during FY22-27 8x jump expected in GDP contribution due to PLI Schemes
(FY22-FY27)
80 1.8%
As % of GDP
Digital Infra 70 1.6%
3%
Rural Incremental Domestic 1.4%
Infrastructure 60 Value addition due to PLI
Irrigation 7%
8% Scheme ($ Bn) 1.2%
Urban Agriculture 50
17% and food 1.0%
Airports 2% 40
Social
1% 0.8%
Ports infrastructure
1% 4% 30
0.6%
Industrial
Railways Infrastructure 20
0.4%
12% 3%
10 0.2%
Energy 0 0.0%
24% FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27
Roads
18% Mobile Autos Battery Pharma Food Textile Telecom Others
Indian infrastructure sector has a multiplier effect on other sectors PLI offers strength to India’s competitiveness across the globe
Source: Ministries/departments/state governments/private sector, RAVE, Credit Suisse and MOAMC estimates 10
Investors shouldn’t get deterred by intermittent falls
Nifty 50
7,000 • 7 falls in 6 years of over
Weak market 10% -> 2 of these were
6,000 sentiments and 30% drawdown
Inflation fears and Inflation fears led
interest rate to the market fall • 6x Journey from
5,000 High Oil hikes led to the
Prices and market fall 15% Fall 1100 in Jan-02 to
Risk of FII outflow 6300 in Jan-08 ->
4,000 Rise in leading to the 30% Fall CAGR of 33% CAGR
UPA comes to
Interest market fall
power in rates
3,000 Weakness in coalition with • Journey this time
Left 13% Fall
Part of the larger US markets 10% Fall started at 12k in Jan-20
correction which affected all the -> We are at 17.6k now
30% Fall
2,000 began in 2000 global indices
14% Fall 16% Fall • Buy Right Sit Tight ->
1,000 Stick to Quality ->
QGLP time tested
-
Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08
11
Source: MOAMC Internal Research
Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The above graph is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy.
BSE Sensex – History of 2 Decades
70000
BSE Sensex
CY 2015:
60000 CY 2011: Slowdown in
Eurozone China, Magnitude
CY 2008: Debt of Decline 23%
Global Crisis,
50000
Financial Magnitude
Crisis, of Decline 41860
Magnitude of 26%
40000 Decline 61%
CY 2000:
Dotcom Crisis,
Magnitude of 29594
30000
Decline 56%
20813 25981
20688
20000 23089 CY 2020: Medical
Crisis (COVID-19),
Magnitude of Decline
15455
10000 ~38% till now
5934
8160
0 2600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Over the last 22 years, BSE Sensex has grown at a CAGR of ~12%, despite numerous large corrections during the
course wherein magnitude of declines have been more than 20%
12
Source: Bloomberg, Data available till 31st Mar 2022
Investment Frameworks
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Investment Frameworks
Technology
Lower
switching Cost
cost Value
Migration
Drivers
Easier Access
Convenience
to Funding
Innovation
Technology
Urbanization and
Innovation
Evolving
Income Favorable
Consumer
Growth Demographics
attitudes
Significant Headroom for Listed Tech in India to Grow India’s IT is expected to witness a steep growth
64%
86%
250
31%
13% 60
1% 5%
S&P BSE 500 Index S&P 500 Index 2015 2020 2025
Internet and Digital IT Services Others
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 India Brazil China Hong Thailand Malaysia USA UK
19
Source: Statista, MO AMC Research Kong
Case Studies
These stocks are for illustration purpose only and may or may not form the part of the actual portfolio
Page Industries Vedant Fashions Ltd.
• Page Industries Limited manufactures, markets, and • The company is a category leader and one stop shop in the branded Indian
About distributes garments and clothing accessories for men, wedding and celebration market
Company women, and junior girls and boys. • 500+ exclusive branded outlets; healthy margin (Gross margin:~70%)
• FY22-24 Revenue and EPS growth pegged at 15% and • Ethnic wear accounts for ~32% of overall apparel retail market out of which
20% as price hikes offset higher yarn costs. Women’s ethnic wear is the largest segment (~ INR 1,25,000 cr compared
• The Indian innerwear market is expected to grow at 10% to ~INR 18,000 cr of Men’s segment);This is another key focus segment of the
CAGR over 2017-27 while Men’s/Women’s innerwear is company
Favorable
estimated to grow 6%/12%;Newer segments, mainly • Commands industry’s highest PAT margin of ~26% and RoCE at ~32% as on
Factors Athleisure and Kid’s innerwear, are expected to grow FY20; Revenue per store at INR 2.4 crore
even faster. • The Indian wedding and celebration wear market is pegged at ~INR1 lakh cr
• The company is targeting USD 1 bn sales by FY26 (15-20% branded penetration); branded space is expected to grow at a CAGR
of 18-20% by FY25
Ethnic wear market size (INR bn)
Page Industries Limited
2,000.0 1,752.5
1,500.0
Stock 1,000.0
Price 500.0
E– OTT /
Food Tech Health Tech Ed Tech Fintech
Commerce Gaming/ Ent
Illustrative list
Size (USD bn) 45.0 4.0 0.7 0.9 3.0 80.0 (txn value)
Ancillary
Segments/Key
enablers
Key drivers Demographics, Internet penetration, Simple yet robust financial eco-system, ‘Work from Home’
Source: Company, BofA Global Research, Citi Research, Note: Size refers to GMV or Gross Merchandise Value 21
Unlocking Value through Unlisted Space
22
Expertise in Unlisted Space
Unique approach enabling exclusive access to deals
Portfolio
26.8% 18.1% 45.6%
Gross IRR
23
Case Studies - Unlisted
These stocks are for illustration purpose only and may or may not form the part of the actual portfolio
- Thomas Phelps
Author, 100 to 1 In The Stock Market
25
Investment Strategy
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Investment Strategy
Invest in companies with strong • Invest in early stage companies, pre–IPOs,
QGLP and Flexibility to invest at the time of DRHP filing; near IPO
~20% in other bottom up stock through anchor allocation
opportunities • Leverage deal sourcing capabilities MOPE
Listed Unlisted –
Equities Soonicorns
0-100% 0-49%
Value
Trillion Dollar Disruption
Migration
• Manish has been managing the Strategy since inception and also serves as
the Director of the Motilal Oswal India Fund, Mauritius.
• He has been the guiding pillar in the PMS investment process and has been
managing various PMS strategies and AIFs at MOAMC.
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Key Terms & Structure of the Fund
Name of the
Motilal Oswal Vision 2030 Fund
Fixed Fee Structure
scheme
United Arab Emirates New Zealand Luxembourg Saudi Arabia South Korea
Please reach out to the operations team as the list shall be updated timely.
Please write to aifservice@motilaloswal.com or AMC team for countries other than the ones mentioned above. 31
Annexure
32
Decoding QGLP
Q Quality
G Growth
Potential for External factors
Quality of Business Quality of Management Robust Growth for the past 3 – 5
growth in the
years
future Internal factors
Cost Volume
Competitive Company Unquestionable Demonstrable Growth Favorable Inorganic growth (if any)
Landscape Financials Integrity Competence Mindset Price Mix
L Longevity
P Price
Expected 3 – 5 yr EPS
TTM P/E PEG < 1.5
CAGR
Market capitalization
Potential for upside Past 3-year price
movement over the
going forward CAGR
last 3 – 5 years
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Source: MO AMC Research
Why AIF? – From an Investor’s Standpoint
Longevity
• In other products, fund managers are forced
Discipline to stay invested during the entire tenure of fund to pay additional premium on listing day for
potential multi-baggers
• Whereas in AIF, Fund Managers enjoy decent
Flexibility in deployment of funds allocation in IPOs at issue price and thereby
add on the listing day gains too
Drawdown structure allows the fund manager for timing market
opportunities
34
Acceptance of Accredited Investors
Minimum capital commitment from an accredited investor is INR 25 lacs.
• Covers scenario where an AI is becoming ineligible involuntarily. For eg. Decrease in net worth, lead time
between expiration of AI certificate and renewal application.
• In this case, the investor still remains deemed Accredited Investor for the rest of the tenure and the
investment(s) already made by him shall continue to be reckoned as investment by an Accredited
Investor.
If an investors who have availed lower ticket size Withdraws the ‘Consent’ voluntarily:
• Investor is required to bring up the investment to the minimum investment size (1 Cr in this case) that is
mandated for non-Accredited Investors
• 30 days buffer shall be given for arranging the additional funding
• Compulsory redemption in case of failure subject to the exit load and/or penalty clause at the discretion
of the Investment Manager.
• BASL shall provide the accreditation certificate. Open the link in google chrome for registration:
https://membership.bseasl.com/login.aspx?flag=A 35
Disclaimer
The content is issued on the basis of internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. The information contained in this document is for
general purposes only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact and terms and conditions. The information / data herein alone is not sufficient and shouldn’t be
used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party.
All opinions, figures, charts/graphs, estimates and data included in this presentation are as on date and are subject to change without notice. The statements contained herein
may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown
risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Readers shall be fully
responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of this presentation. Investments in Securities are subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or
guarantee that the objectives of any of the Schemes will be achieved.The scheme may not be suited to all categories of investors.
The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
Opinions, if any, expressed are our opinions as of the date of appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in
this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Recipient shall understand that the aforementioned statements cannot
disclose all the risks and characteristics. The recipient is requested to take into consideration all the risk factors including their financial condition, suitability to risk return,
etc. and take professional advice before investing.
As with any investment in securities, the Value of the portfolio under management may go up or down depending on the various factors and forces affecting the capital
market.
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished solely for information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into
whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.
Investment in Securities is subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any of the Schemes of Alternative Investment
Funds will be achieved.Please read Private Placement Memorandum of the Scheme carefully before investing.
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Thank You!
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