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ARTICLE INFO A B ST R AC T
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A new wave of Covid-19 pandemic has worsened
Article History:
the epidemiological situation in Ukraine. This caused the need to tighten quarantine
Received 11 August 2020
measures that have been introduced since 31.08.2020. The conducted analysis showed
Reviewed 02 September 2020
that there are 3 groups of technologies for digital contact tracing: from maximum (25%)
Revised 19 September 2020
to minimum (20%). Objective of the study is to develop an exchange platform to track
Accepted 2 October 2020
the spread of COVID-19 in rural areas.
METHODS: Factor analysis identified key factors of COVID-19 virus spread. Cluster
Keywords: analysis identified clusters of COVID-19 spread. Taxonomy method established the limits
Coronavirus (COVID-19) of using contact tracing methods. Discriminatory method makes it possible to change
Digital contact tracing technologies the applied contact tracing method.
(DCTТ model) FINDINGS: The results showed that the identified factors (medico-demographic special
Indicators features of Covid-19 virus spread; rural infrastructure to counteract the infection)
Monitoring describe in total 83.24% of the data processed. Specified 4 clusters differ in the level
Rural areas of susceptibility of the population to COVID-19 and infrastructure development: from
United territorial communities minimum (33% of the united territorial communities) to maximum - 13% of the united
(UTC) territorial communities. The value of the integral indicator calculated provides means
for establishing the maximum (8.5) and the minimum (2) limit of changes in the method
of digital contact tracing.
CONCLUSION: The developed methodology was implemented on the basis of the united
territorial communities of Sumy region. Monitoring of changes in the epidemiological
situation made it possible to justify the need to change the contact tracing model, which
will reduce the epidemiological level in the region as a whole by 30%.
38 4 5
*Corresponding Author:
Email: valery_shcherbak@i.ua
Phone: +380999687135
Fax: +380999687135
Note: Discussion period for this manuscript open until July 1, 2021 on GJESM website at the “Show Article.
V. Shcherbak et al.
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Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage., 7(2): 155-170, Spring 2021
using Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) handshakes, saving the variety of approaches used aims to achieve a
information in phones as anonymous “beacons” balance between technological feasibility, public
without re-identifying users, and notifying potentially health benefits, and user privacy protection. Data
infected users of contact (Davis et al., 2020). All storage in the approaches used is possible in two
157
COVID-19 in rural areas
Continued Table1: The most common digital technologies and platforms tracking contacts for active surveillance over the spread of COVID-19
Intervention Developer Purpose,
App name Data storage Participation Government access References
type or country technologies used
Digital contact Mandatory
Middle Voluntary / opt-
Blue Trace Singapore tracing (DCTT) Decentralized government access if Reyes et al., 2020
ground in
Bluetooth LE positive
Information,
Coronavirus
Middle DCTT Centralized / isolation Australian
Australia Australia Ferretti et al., 2020;
ground BLE or QR based Decentralized registration; Department of Health
COVIDSafe
contact tracing
Scan QR codes to Voluntary app:
Middle NZ COVID New Centralized /
track for contract Centralized The Health Ministry Baker et al., 2020
ground Tracer Zealand Decentralized
tracing purposes model
NHSX/Oxfor
d; COVID
Symptom
Study, Voluntary / opt-
Government
Middle formerly DCTT Centralized / in;
England maintains data, but no Lewnard et al., 2020
ground Covid Bluetooth LE; SMS Decentralized self-diagnostic;
storage
Symptom multipurpose
Tracker;
NHS COVID-
19
Matching of proximity
encounters happens
locally on individuals'
devices: Decentralized
DCTT
Middle Switzerlan Voluntary / opt- Privacy-Preserving
SwissCovid Bluetooth LE, GPS Decentralized Li et al., 2020
ground d in Proximity Tracing (DP-
DP-3T protocol
3T) protocol or the
Google-Apple
Exposure Notification
API
Middle Aarogya DCTT Centralized / Voluntary / opt- Anonymized, Pal et al., 2020;
India
ground Setu Bluetooth LE, GPS Decentralized in aggregate
Proximity - based
North exposure
Centralized / Voluntary / opt- In aggregate, optional
Minimal Care19 Dakota notification Means et al., 2020
Decentralized in if positive
USA DCTT
Bluetooth LE, GPS
Proximity - based
exposure Ministry of Health, the
notification; Ministry for
proximity tracing Technological
and exposure Voluntary / opt- Innovation and
Minimal Immuni Italy Decentralized Teslya et al., 2020
notification, in Digitalization use
optional GPS public infrastructures
location sharing located within the
DCTT national borders
Bluetooth LE
Proximity - based Federal Ministry of
Stopp exposure Voluntary / opt- Health
Minimal Austria Decentralized Martin et al., 2020
Corona notification in contact tracing,
Bluetooth LE medical reporting
Proximity - based
exposure Voluntary / opt- None, positive results
Minimal ito Germany Decentralized Ding et al., 2020
notification in to ito server
Bluetooth LE, GPS
ways: centralized storage of impersonalized data; and Since the level of COVID-19 infection in rural areas
decentralized storage of personally identifiable data. of the Sumy region is varying (Fig. 1), it is necessary
Ukraine is included into the red zone of COVID-19 to justify the use of a reasonable approach to DCTT
prevalence. The degree of incidence for COVID-19 is for active surveillance and to stop the spread of
varying in the studied Sumy region (Fig. 1). COVID-19 for each group of rural areas. The main
158
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage., 7(2): 155-170, Spring 2021
Ukraine
Fig.Fig. 1: COVID-19
1: COVID-19 infectionlevel
infection levelin
in rural
rural areas
areasofofSumy
Sumyregion, Ukraine
region, Ukraine
objective of this study is to analyze the existing this diagram is the day when the country confirmed
DCTT methods and choose the best method to track 100th case of infection. Trend lines represent the
contacts and reduce the COVID-19 infection level in number of days that have passed since this event. The
rural areas of Sumy region of Ukraine. This study was diagram shows the number of confirmed COVID-19
conducted taking into account the data on COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in each country.
infection level in 30 United Territorial Communities of The first case of COVID-19 in Ukraine was
rural areas of Sumy region of Ukraine for the period registered on 03.03.2020. 198.634 total cases of
from April 2020 to August 2020 at runtime. COVID-19, 3.130 new cases of disease, 3.959 deaths
were registered in Ukraine as of 27.09.2020. The
MATHERIALS AND METHODS average number of cases per 1 million population
makes 4,549, the average number of deaths per
Materials description 1 million population makes 91. The population
The history of the epidemic started in different of Ukraine makes 43,669,439 people. The State
countries at different times. The COVID-19 spread Commission for Technological and Environmental
diagram for each country with the same starting point Safety and Emergency Situations of Ukraine decided
makes it possible to compare the spread of COVID-19 to establish the levels of epidemic danger of COVID-19
in different countries (Fig. 2). The starting point for spread by October 31, 2020. The “red” quarantine
(CDCP, 2020)
159
V. Shcherbak et al.
zone included certain cities and rural areas of five tourist bases, etc.), except for hotels; activities of
Ukrainian regions: Ivano-Frankivsk, Odessa, Rivne, entertainment facilities, restaurants at night time;
Ternopil and Chernivtsi. The “orange” zone included planned hospital admission; activity of gyms, fitness
the cities of Lutsk, Uzhgorod, Lviv, Sumy, Ternopil and centers and cultural institutions; new admission
Kharkiv (Fig. 1). According to the data as of 28.09.20 to children’s camps; restrictions for public events:
there were only 3813 infected cases, 63 (1,7%) fatal 1 person per 20 square meters and not more than
cases, 1641 (43,0%) recovered, and 2109 (55,3%) 100 people. The current epidemiological situation
diseased people in the studied region of Sumy. The requires justification for differential application of
“orange” zone of epidemic danger includes Sumy DCTT models. Initial data to assess the resistance level
District (235 diseased, 5 deceased, 91 recovered); of rural areas of Sumy region to COVID-19 are given
Konotopsky District (215 diseased, 6 deceased, in Table 2. The study base consisted of 13 indicators
10 recovered); Bilopolsky District (117 diseased, 2 for 7 months of quarantine (March 2020 – September
deceased, 61 recovered); Krolevetsky District (108 2020) in Sumy region.
diseased, 2 deceased, 93 recovered). “Yellow” level Initial data processing (Table 2) using the
was set in Shostkinsky District (106 diseased, 5 died, developed methodology will make it possible to
55 recovered); Trostyanetsky District (90 diseased, make a reasonable choice of a model of COVID-19
4 deceased, 74 recovered); Akhtyrkinsky District (98 prevalence contacts tracking for each rural area.
diseased, 1 deceased, 78 recovered); Nedrigaylovsky
District (80 sick, 1 died, 66 recovered); Romny District Methods description
(58 diseased, 2 deceased, 33 recovered); Burynsky Analysis of literature sources has confirmed that
District (27 diseased, 2 deceased, 12 recovered); the use of DCTT models has proven its efficiency in
Konotopsky District (60 diseased, 3 died, 47 preventing the spread of COVID-19. The conducted
recovered). The rest of the districts are in the “green” review makes it possible to assert that for rural areas
zone of epidemic danger (Fig. 1). Based on the with low spread of COVID-19 and mortality rates
established levels of epidemic hazard of COVID-19 it is sufficient to use the minimum DCTT method,
spread, the anti-epidemic measures on the territory for areas with medium infection rate of COVID-19
of Sumy city local community were stepped up. - middle ground DCTT model, for areas with high
Organizational measures were taken in Krolevetskaya, infection rate of COVID-19 - maximum ground DCTT
Nedrigailovskaya, Sumy and Trostyanetskaya model. The first stage included the use of factor
communities to ensure that the population and analysis. This method makes it possible to identify
business entities complied with the anti-epidemic the most significant indicators affecting the COVID-19
requirements on the respective territories. The infection rate and mortality in rural areas. The rows
following activities are prohibited (Grossman et al., of the final table of factor analysis are equal to the
2020): activities of means of accommodation (hostels, number of indicators, the columns - to the number
160
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage., 7(2): 155-170, Spring 2021
Where,
Where, Expl.F Expl.F is the factor load j - the susceptibility at the first stage of factor analysis (highlighted in red
j is the factor load j - the susceptibility / resistance aspect of COVID-19; aij is the value of the
j
/Where,resistance
indicator
Expl.F
X
j is the
aspect of factor
COVID-19; load j a- the is susceptibility
the value of the / resistance
in the aspect
STATISTICA of COVID-19; aij is initial
listing). The the valuematrixof the
has the
ij; Xij is the ij indicator. ij
indicator X ; X
indicator Xij; Xij is the ij indicator.
ij ij is the ij indicator. following form using Eq. 7.
Cluster
Cluster analysis
analysis of
of K-average
K-average was
was used
used at the
the second stage to justify the division of rural areas into groups
Cluster analysis of K-average wasatused second
at thestage to justify the division of rural areas into groups
by the
by the level level of prevalence and susceptibility of population to COVID-19.
x11 x12 ...x1n of significant indicators identified at the first stage of fa
second stageoftoprevalence justify theand susceptibility
division of rural areas of population
into to COVID-19.
Matrix
formation
The methodology of using K-average cluster analysis is as follows:
red xin21 xthe STATISTICA listing). The initial matrix has(7) the following form us
The methodology
groups by the levelofofusing K-average
prevalence andcluster analysisofis as follows:
susceptibility 22 ...x2 n
Prior conversion of all indicators to a dimensionless form = Eq.
X using 3.
Prior conversion
population to COVID-19. of all indicators to a dimensionless form using
Eq. 3.
................
The methodology of using K-average cluster x11 x12 ...x1n
xm1 xm 2 ...xmn
analysisxis as−follows: x x21 x22 ...x2 n (7)
zz ij § = xPrior
ij − x j
ij conversion
j of all indicators (3) to a
X =
§ Matrix
transformation (7) to a dimensionless
= (3) .......... ......
ij
dimensionless S
S jj form using Eq. 3.
standardized
x x ...xform
and matrix standard formation,
m1 m 2 mn
x − x Where, 0 is the best value in columns using Eq. 8.
Where, Matrix transformation (7) tothis a dimensionless standardized form and
zij = xxijij is is the the j-th j-th COVID-19
COVID-19 spread indicator
indicator of of the
(3) i-th
i-th rural
rural area;
area; xxjj is is the
the average
average of of this indicator
indicator for
ij j
Where,
spread the for
all Sareas; Where, 0 is the best value in columns using Eq. 8.
all rural
rural areas; j SSj is the standard deviation of this indicator for
j is the standard deviation of this indicator хfor
0 all rural
= all , х20, areas.
[х1rural
0
… хn0]
areas. (8)
Where,
-- Minimizing x is the
the standard j-th COVID-19
deviation spread
of all indicator
indicators of
from the х = center
0
[х1 , х2 of
0 0
, … хn ]identified clusters using
0
(8) 4
of the clusters using Eq.
ij
the Minimizing
i-th ruralthe area; standard
xj is the deviation
averageof ofall
thisindicators
indicatorfrom §the center
Determination the identified Eq. 4
(Lipsey et al., 2000). Determination ofofthethe multidimensional
multidimensional Euclidean
Euclidean distance from the matr
(Lipsey et al., 2000).
for all rural areas; Sj is the standard deviation of this distance from the matrix standard using Eq. 9.
indicatork for all rural areas. 2 n
∑
2
∑∑
k
min - [Minimizing x ( j ) ∈ the
S x ( standard
j) -
( j)
μ ] deviation (4) of all L = [ ( x - x0 )2 ] 1 / 2 (9) (9)
min [ ∑∑ x ( j ) ∈ S i x - μ ] (4) i i i
indicators i =1 from the center
i =1 i of the identified clusters i =1
using Eq. 4 (Lipsey et al., 2000). § Determination of the average Euclidean distance
где x x ∈ ∈R R ;; μμ ∈
( j) n
∈R
n
где Determination of the average Euclidean distance from all objects to the s
R n ;; µµi –– cluster
cluster centroid
centroid R Ri..
( j) n
i i i
i
Determination 161
Determination of of the Rii cluster
the R cluster centroid
centroid (center)
(center) by
by maximizing
1 the distances
distances between
between clusters and
N
maximizing
L = × ∑theL
clusters
(10) and
minimizing the standard deviation of indicators from the
minimizing the standard deviation of indicators from the clustercluster
N centroid.
icentroid.
=1 i Calculation of the centroid
Calculation of the centroid
of
of each Rii cluster
each R cluster using
using Eq.
Eq. 5.
5.
11 Determination of the standard deviation of multidimensional distances u
= S x∑
μμi = (5)
∑∈ Sxx i
i
( j)
(5)
= [ ∑( x - x0of)2the
L Determination ] 1 / multidimensional
2
Euclidean
(9) distance from the matrix standard using Eq. 9.
i i =1 i i
= [ ∑( xi - xi of
L Determination ) the
] average Euclidean(9)distance from all objects to the standard using Eq. 10.
0 2 1/ 2
i
i i i
i =1
Determination
§ Determination of2of the standard deviation of multi- Ck=1/(n −1) ∑(x −μk)T(x11. −μk) (13)
( )
1 N the standard deviation of multidimensional distances
k using
ik Eq. ik
σ = [ ∑ Ldistances
dimensional -L ] using Eq. 11.
1\ 2 (11)
N i =1 i Where, the index m indicates the dimension of
1
( )
2
N
(11) the feature space.
σ = [ ∑ L -L ] (11)
1\ 2
162
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage., 7(2): 155-170, Spring 2021
The first factor included 8 indicators (Table 3): condition of rural areas of the given territory, and
population density (number of residents per 1 sq. socio-cultural diversification of the territory has a
m.). km); the proportion of children under 7 years negative impact on limiting the spread of COVID-19
of age (% of total population); the proportion of (because of the concentration of people at a single
residents over 65 years of age (% of total population); location). Other indicators of the second factor have
the proportion of youth aged 20-35 years of age a positive impact on limiting the spread of COVID-19
(% of total population); COVID-19 mortality rate (due to the possibility of organizing social distance
(number of deaths divided by number of confirmed or providing medical care). According to Table 3, the
cases); mortality rate per 100,000 people of local first factor’s impact on limiting COVID-19 spread is
population; the number of confirmed COVID-19 described in Eq. 14.
cases per 100,000 people of local population; and
the number of recovering COVID-19 cases per F1=1/4.062440 ∙ (-0.790815 х1+ 0.745745 х2
100,000 people. The second factor included the rest -0.753503 х3 +0.986729 х4 -0.275268 х5 (14)
5 indicators: the number of educational, cultural, and -0.518377 х6 -0.201241 х7 -0.072538 х8)
sports infrastructure facilities per 100,000 people of
local population; the number of health and recreation The value of the impact of the second factor on
facilities per 100,000 people of local population; the the possibility of limiting the spread of COVID-19 is
proportion of enterprises working online (% of the determined by Eq. 15.
total number of enterprises on the territory); the
proportion of population working online (% of the total F2=1/2.858818 ∙ (-0.863570 х9 + 0.758107 х10 +
number of population working online); the number of (15)
0.863570 х11 + 0.916809 х12 + 0.753435 х13)
medical personnel per 100,000 people on the territory.
The results of the conducted factor analysis showed Thus, the obtained model reflects completely the
that the specific features of spread and limitation of level of population’s susceptibility to COVID -19 in
COVID-19 epidemic in rural areas of Sumy region are the studied region according to two factors, the first
fully characterized by two factors obtained. This is one reflects medical-demographic peculiarities of
quite enough to justify the choice of DCTT model for COVID -19 virus spread in the given area, the second
each rural area. The first factor can be characterized one represents infrastructural limitations of COVID
as medical-demographic features of COVID-19 virus -19 spread K-average cluster analysis was used at
spread. It describes 51.25% of the dispersion and has the second stage to justify the division of rural areas
the greatest impact on the epidemiological situation into groups according to the level of prevalence and
in rural areas. The second factor describes 31.99% susceptibility of population to COVID-19. The diagram
of the dispersion. It characterizes the infrastructural of K-average is shown in Fig. 3.
Fig. 3: Diagram of average values of indicators for the prevalence rates and susceptibility level of population to COVID-19 in rural areas of
Fig. 3: Diagram of average values of indicators
Sumyfor the prevalence rates and susceptibility level
region
of population to COVID-19 in rural areas of Sumy region
163
V. Shcherbak et al.
Fig. 3 shows that in accordance with the (cafes, restaurants, entertainment facilities).
prevalence rates and susceptibility level of Comparison of the first cluster identified by the
population to COVID-19 all the rural areas of Sumy model used in this study in real time mode confirms
region are divided into four clusters. The number and the fact that on the territory of UTC of the first cluster
composition of united territorial communities (UTC), (Andriyashivska UTC, Bochechkivska UTC, Vilshanska
which are part of the obtained clusters, is presented UTC, Druzhbivska UTC, Dubovyazivska UTC, Kyrykivska
in Table 4. UTC, Krasnopilska UTC, Mykolayivska (Bilopil district)
As the data in Table 4 show according to the UTC, Stepanovskaya UTC, Shalyhynska UTC) from the
identification feature: “UTC resistance level / total population in Andriyashivska UTC (4,000 people
susceptibility of population to COVID-19”: cluster - minimum) to 7.3 thousand people in Stepanovskaya
1 includes UTC, where there is a low level of UTC (maximum) - the proportion of the population
susceptibility of population to COVID-19 due to aged 25 to 45 years makes 52%. Furthermore, the
the small number of categories with the increased number of infrastructure entertainment facilities
risk of infection (elderly people, children, chronic ranges from 5 facilities in Andriyashivska UTC (1.25
patients with compromised immune system), middle facilities per 1 thousand population) to 9 facilities in
adulthood and young population prevail. Besides, Stepanovskaya UTC (1.23 facilities per 1 thousand
there is a low level of infrastructure development, i.e., population). UTC, which were included in cluster 2,
few enterprises providing services to the population also have poorly developed infrastructure, but they
United territorial communities (UTC) of Identification of susceptibility and resistance level of local
Cluster/ quantity UTC
Sumy Region population to COVID-19
Andriyashivska UTC Low susceptibility of population to COVID-19
Bochechkivska UTC Low level of infrastructure development
Vilshanska UTC
Druzhbivska UTC
Dubovyazivska UTC
1 /10
Kyrykivska UTC
Krasnopilska UTC
Mykolayivska (Bilopil district) UTC
Stepanovskaya UTC
Shalyhynska UTC
Bilopilska UTC Average susceptibility of population to COVID-19
Berezivska UTC Low level of infrastructure development
Boromlyanska UTC
Znob-Novgorod UTC
Mykolayivska UTC 2 /9
Myropilska UTC
Nyzhnosyrovatska UTC
Novoslobodskaya UTC
Khotyn UTC
Burynska UTC Average susceptibility of population to COVID-19
Verkhnosyrovatska UTC Average level of infrastructure development
Grunska UTC
Korovynska UTC 3/7
Chupakhivska UTC
Shostkinskaya UTC
Chernechchynska UTC
Krolevets UTC High level of susceptibility of population to COVID-19
Nedrigailivska UTC High level of infrastructure development
4/4
Trostyanetska UTC
Sumy UTC
164
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage., 7(2): 155-170, Spring 2021
have a higher level of perception of COVID-19, as the residents working online in comparison with the
number of elderly people is higher in this area. Besides, first and second clusters). The actual data collected
the actual data collected from the place of research from the place of research practice confirms as
practice confirms the fact that on the territory of well the fact that on the territory of UTC of the
UTC of the second cluster (Bilopilska UTC, Berezivska third cluster (Burynska UTC, Verkhnosyrovatska
UTC, Boromlyanska UTC, Znob-Novgorod UTC, UTC, Grunska UTC, Korovynska UTC, Chupakhivska
Mykolayivska UTC, Myropilska UTC, Nyzhnosyrovatska UTC, Shostkinskaya UTC, Chernechchynska UTC)
UTC, Novoslobodskaya UTC, Khotyn UTC) from the the population aged 45-60 years (from 10 years)
total population (from 3 to 3). 6 thousand people in prevails. 2 thousand people in Chernechchynska
Bilopilska UTC (minimum) to 5.5 thousand people UTC (minimum) to 14 thousand people in Burynska
in Khotyn UTC (maximum) - the proportion of the UTC (maximum) - the proportion of the population
population over 60 years is on average 58%. At the aged 45-60 years makes 47%. At the same time, the
same time, there are also few infrastructure facilities number of infrastructure entertainment facilities
of entertainment nature: from 3 facilities in Bilopilska is as follows: 12 facilities in Burynska UTC (0.86
UTC (0.83 objects per 1 thousand population) to 4 objects per 1 thousand population) to 14 facilities in
facilities in Khotyn UTC (0.72 objects per 1 thousand Burynska UTC (1 object per 1 thousand population),
population). Cluster 3 is characterized by an average the proportion of population working online is on
level of susceptibility of the population to COVID-19 average 33%. Cluster 4 is characterized by a high level
(middle age population prevails), an average level of of susceptibility of population to COVID-19 and a
infrastructure development (more enterprises and high level of infrastructure development. The actual
Symbols of united territorial communities: Krolevets: Andriyashivska UTC С_1; Bilopilska UTC С_2; Berezivska UTC С_3; Boromlyanska UTC С_4;
Bochechkivska UTC С_5; Burynska UTC С_6; Verkhnosyrovatska UTC С_7; Vilshanska UTC С_8; Grunska UTC С_9; Druzhbivska UTC С_10;
Dubovyazivska UTC С_11; Kyrykivska UTC С_12; Korovynska UTC С_13; Trostyanetska UTC С_14; Mykolayivska (Bilopil district) UTC С_15; Krolevets
UTC С_16; Mykolayivska С_17; Myropilska UTC С_18; Nyzhnosyrovatska UTC С_19; Nedrigailivska UTC С_20; Novoslobodskaya UTC С_21;
Stepanovskaya UTC С_22; Krasnopilska UTC С_23; Khotyn UTC С_24; Chupakhivska UTC С25; Shalyhynska UTC С_26; Shostkinskaya UTC С_27;
Znob-Novgorod UTC С_28; Chernechchynska UTC С_29; Sumy UTC С_30.
9.
Fig.Fig.
4: 4:
Integral
Integralindicator
indicator ofofresistance
resistanceandand prevalence
prevalence rates
rates of of COVID-19
COVID-19 of the
of the united unitedcommunities
territorial territorial of
communities
Sumy region of
Sumy region
165
V. Shcherbak et al.
Тable 5: Results of discriminant analysis. Monitoring of changes in the epidemiological situation COVID-19
Тable 5: Results of discriminant analysis. Monitoring of changes in the epidemiological situation COVID-19 in rural areas of Sumy region
in rural areas of Sumy region (STATISTICA 10 listing)
(STATISTICA 10 listing)
Discriminatory function of changing DCTT model usage
Suggested DCTT methods of COVID-19 new pandemic outbreak
the epidemiological situation of condition for UTC i-
prevention platform
COVID-19 of the i-th cluster th cluster residents
Int1= 0.262 - 0.81х1 + 0.74х2 - 0.75х3
For the residents of UTC i-th cluster it is suggested using the
+ 0.98х4 - 0.27х5 -0.51х6 - 0.21х7 -
Int1 = max minimum methods of contact tracing: manual notification of the
0.07х8 - 0.86х9 + 0.75х10 + 0.86х11 +
case of COVID-19 by phone, sms-notifications.
0.91х12 + 0.75х13
Int2= 0.321 - 0.73х1 + 0.83х2 - 0.62х3 For the i-th cluster it is suggested using medium-minimal methods
+ 0.99х4 - 0.19х5 -0.42х6 - 0.19х7 - of tracking contacts: manual notification of COVID-19 cases by
Int2 = max
0.06х8 - 0.77х9 + 0.82х10 + 0.83х11 + phone, sms-notifications; voluntary service of people who had
0.92х12 + 0.79х13 contact with the carrier COVID-19.
For the i-th cluster it is suggested using the average methods of
Int3= 0.428 - 0.69х1 + 0.86х2 - 0.59х3
tracking contacts: automatic notification of COVID-19 cases,
+ 1.02х4 - 0.17х5 -0.40х6 - 0.17х7 -
Int3 = max verification of quarantine conditions by public health authorities,
0.05х8 - 0.75х9 + 0.88х10 + 0.88х11 +
fixing the waypoint using GPS, sending "selfies" photos to the
0.93х12 + 0.81х13
controlling agency for quarantine compliance.
For the residents of UTC i-th cluster it is suggested using the most
Int4= 0.555 - 0.59х1 + 0.88х2 - 0.49х3
stringent methods of tracking contacts: automatic notification of
+ 1.03х4 - 0.13х5 -0.37х6 - 0.13х7 -
Int4 = max COVID-19 cases, centralization of information in the UTC
0.03х8 - 0.66х9 + 0.98х10 + 0.98х11 +
administration, public health authorities, forced examination of
0.99х12 + 0.88х13
people who had contact with the carrier COVID-19.
data collected from the place of research practice for each of the clusters were calculated at the third
confirms as well the fact that on the territory of UTC stage by means of taxonomy using equations 7 - 12.
of the fourth cluster (Krolevets UTC, Nedrigailivska The value of the integral COVID-19 prevalence rate
UTC, Trostyanetska UTC, Sumy UTC) the population indicator shows the boundary where one contact
aged 45-60 years prevails (from 8.5 thousand people tracing model is transformed into another model.
in Nedrigailivska UTC (minimum) to 78.8 thousand COVID prevalence rate indicator of different UTCs
people in Sumy UTC (maximum) - the proportion of was presented in the form of a dendogram (Fig. 4) by
population aged 45-60 years makes 44%. At the same means of STATISTICA software.
time, the number of infrastructure entertainment Fig. 4 show that the closer the COVID-19 integral
facilities is as follows: 12 facilities in Nedrigailivska value is to 10, the more stringent measures to track
UTC (0.86 facilities per 1 thousand population) up to contacts with COVID-19 carriers are required. The last
54 facilities in Sumy UTC (0.7 facilities per 1 thousand stage included the use of discriminant analysis. It was
population), the proportion of population working in used to monitor the dynamics of the epidemiological
the remote mode is on average 13%. This situation is situation in the identified clusters. If the situation
explained by the fact that the fourth cluster includes worsens or improves, it is necessary to change the
UTC, located near large cities, transport highways, means of tracking contacts with COVID-19 carriers
highly developed infrastructure, a large number of used. The result of the conducted discriminant
critical population groups (Kolodiziev et al., 2018). analysis is given in Table 5.
Previous studies have shown that refugees living The use of the suggested discrete method
in rural areas near large cities have an additional to monitor the situation of spread of COVID-19
social burden (Shcherbak et al., 2020). All these makes it possible to: identify possible deterioration
factors certify that these four clusters require (improvement) of the situation, quickly and efficiently
applying different models of tracking contacts with propose changes in the methods of tracking contacts
COVID-19 patients. In other words, it is necessary COVID-19 and appropriate quarantine measures.
to offer a comprehensive platform to prevent a new It is suggested to use discriminant analysis in case
outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic with differentiation of need to choose and modify the contact tracing
of COVID-19 contact tracing models by different UTC model. It is suggested to monitor the status COVID-19
clusters. Integral COVID-19 prevalence rate indicators spread on a weekly basis using the indicators of the
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Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage., 7(2): 155-170, Spring 2021
developed model. New actual data are substituted in current epidemiological situation in rural areas of
4 discriminant equations. Each equation corresponds Sumy region. In 33% of UTC of the first cluster there is
to one of the four contact tracing methods. Maximum a low level of susceptibility of population to COVID-19
value of the integral indicator of the discriminant and low level of infrastructure development. In 30%
equation shows the need for an appropriate of UTC of the second cluster there is an average
contact tracing method. Testing of the suggested level of susceptibility of population to COVID-19 and
model has proved that timely change of the used low level of infrastructure development. In 24% of
COVID-19 contact tracing method will reduce the UTC of the third cluster there is an average level of
epidemiological level by 30% as a whole. susceptibility of population to COVID-19 and a low
level of infrastructure development. In 13% of UTC of
CONCLUSION the first cluster there is a high level of susceptibility
of population to COVID-19 and a high level of
The conducted analysis of existing methods of
infrastructure development. In the third stage,
response to COVID-19 pandemic has shown that
the boundary value of COVID-19 prevalence rates
traditional methods need to be complemented by
for each cluster was determined by the taxonomy
digital technologies that facilitate epidemiological
method as an integral indicator. The calculations
surveillance of public health and tracking of
showed that the maximum value of the integral
contacts. Technologies and platforms for digital
indicator is observed in Sumy UTC (8.5), the minimum
contact tracing can be roughly categorized into three
is found in Andriyashivska UTC (2). The fourth stage
groups: the maximum approach (central government
provides using discriminant analysis, by means of
data collection), applied in 25% of countries; the
which we monitor changes in the epidemiological
minimum approach (decentralized confidentiality situation of COVID-19 in rural areas of Sumy region
and contact notification), applied in 20% of countries; and, if necessary, correct the applied DCTT model.
various options for the intermediate approach The maximum value of discriminant function shows
(supplementing manual contact tracing with digital to which cluster UTC is referred and which tracking
data collection that can be transferred to public system of contacts and quarantine measures should
health authorities), applied in most countries that be applied/changed. Interactive use of the sharing
is 65%. The analysis confirms that there is no one- platform makes it possible to improve the system of
size-fits-all approach to DCTT. Technology design tracking the spread and resistance of COVID-19 in
should not be static, but it should be able to develop rural areas of Sumy region by 30%, which improves
depending on local conditions, new data and the epidemiological situation in the region as a whole.
changing preferences and priorities. This prerequisite
was the basis for the sharing-platform developed to AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
track over the spread and resistance of COVID-19 in
rural areas. The proposed methodology was tested in V. Shcherbak substantiated the study methodology,
rural areas of Sumy region. The use of the suggested validation, conceptualization, I. Gryshchenko
platform is based on the methodology consisting of supervised the interaction with the administration of
four stages. The first stage provides identification rural areas of Sumy region, L. Ganushchak-Yefimenko
of the most significant indicators affecting the collected and analyzed literature, O. Nifatova
epidemiological situation by means of factor analysis. collected data on epidemiological situation in Sumy
These indicators are grouped into 2 factors. The first region, state of infrastructure on the territory of the
factor reflects the medical-demographic features united territorial communities, V. Tkachuk wrote the
of the COVID-19 virus spread, and reasons 51.25% initial project plan, T. Kostiuk provided software for
of the dispersion. The second factor reflects the information processing, V. Hotra calculated models
infrastructural readiness of rural areas to resist the and presented a graphical presentation of the
infection, reasons 31.99% of the dispersion. At the material.
second stage, 4 clusters were identified by the level
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
of susceptibility of the population and the level of
resistance of UTC to COVID-19 by means of K-average The authors express their gratitude to the heads
cluster analysis. The identified clusters reflect the and residents of the united territorial communities of
167
V. Shcherbak et al.
Sumy region, Sumy regional administration for their Special electronic contact tracking
assistance in organizing and conducting the fieldwork. Immuni
application in Italy
Special electronic contact tracing
ito
CONFLICT OF INTEREST application in Germany
The authors declare no potential conflict of km Kilometer
interest regarding the publication of this work. In NHSX/Oxford;
addition, the ethical issues including plagiarism, COVID Symptom
Study, formerly Special electronic contact tracing
informed consent, misconduct, data fabrication and, Covid Symptom application in Great Britain
or falsification, double publication and, or submission, Tracker;
and redundancy have been completely witnessed by NHSCOVID-19
the authors. Special electronic contact tracking
NZ COVID Tracer
application in New Zealand
ABBREVIATIONS Special electronic application for
Pokemon Go
centralized contact tracking in Taiwan
% Percentage
PPT Privacy Proximity Tracking
Special electronic contact tracking
Aarogya Setu Special electronic contact tracking
application in India ProteGOSafe
application in Poland
Acquired immune deficiency
AIDS Percentage of the total variance
syndrome Prp.Totl
explained
Bluetooth (wireless data transfer
QR Easy recognition quick response code
BLE protocol) with low power
consumption Special electronic contact tracing
ROBERT
application in France
Low power wireless data transfer
Bluetooth LE Special electronic application for
protocol Safe Korea
centralized contact tracing in Korea
Special electronic contact tracking
BlueTrace Coronavirus 2 with severe acute
application in Singapore SARS-CoV-2
respiratory syndrome
Special electronic contact tracking
Care19 Special electronic application for
application in New Dakota USA Shin Bet
centralized contact tracing in Israel
Center for Disease Control and
CDCР Dedicated electronic contact tracking
Prevention Smittestop
application in Denmark
CFR Global risk of death
“Short Message Service” - technology
Coronavirus
Australia Dedicated electronic contact tracking SMS for receiving and sending short text
application in Australia messages using a cell phone
COVIDSafe STATSTICA Statistical analysis software package
COronaVIrus Disease 2019, Dedicated electronic application for
COVID-19
coronavirus infection 2019-nCoV Stay Home Safe centralized contact tracing in Hong
Center for Systems Science and Kong
CSSE
Engineering Special electronic contact tracing
StopCovid
DCTT Digital contact tracing technologies application in France
Bluetooth contact chain tracking Special electronic contact tracing
Stopp Corona
DP-3T protocol protocol to prevent coronavirus application in Austria
proliferation SARS-CoV-2 Special electronic contact tracing
SwissCovid
Eq. Formula of calculation application in Switzerland
Expl.Var Explanatory Variable TС Territorial Community
Fig. Figures UAH hryvnya
GPS System of global positioning UTС United Territorial Community
JHU Johns Hopkins University Var Variable
168
Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage., 7(2): 155-170, Spring 2021
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