October 31, 2022

CALENDAR:
The House and Senate are both in recess, and will not return until the middle of November.

INFLATION:
According to data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed
mortgage – which is the most popular home loan product – reached 7.08 percent last week.
That’s the highest level in more than 20 years. The last time that interest rate was that high was
April of 2002.

Since March, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times, bringing its benchmark rate
from near zero to between 3 and 3.25 percent. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by
another 0.75 percentage points this week.

A year ago, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.09 percent. As late as
March of this year, it was still below 4 percent. The increase from 3.22 percent in January to 7.08
percent now is the steepest-ever one-year increase, and we’ve still got almost three full months
to go to finish that year.

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION:
Last week, Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee warned Attorney General Merrick
Garland and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas to preserve all records related
to the Biden Administration’s handling of the situation at the southern border.

Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan, who’s in line to become chairman of the Judiciary Committee if
Republicans recapture control of the House a week from Tuesday, and Congressman Tom
McClintock, who is in line to become the chairman of the Immigration and Citizenship
Subcommittee of the Judiciary Committee, sent letters to the two Biden Administration officials
last week.
“We are investigating the Biden administration’s callous disregard for the safety and security of
our southern border, and your willful failure to enforce U.S. immigration law. … The southern
border has been in chaos since the first hours that President Biden took office, and an
unprecedented surge of aliens has poured across the border,” they wrote to Mayorkas.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE:

Two weeks ago, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy created some controversy when he said
that if Republicans recaptured the House of Representatives, U.S. aid to Ukraine might be
curtailed. “I think people are going to be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a
blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it.”

McCarthy went into damage control mode. A few days after that quote made news, McCarthy
was reaching out to key House Republican national security hawks, telling them his comments
had been taken out of context, according to CNN. He told his members he was simply saying that
a Republican-controlled House wouldn’t automatically approve a request from the Biden
Administration for additional aid for Ukraine.

“McCarthy was not saying, ‘We wouldn’t spend money.’ McCarthy was saying, ‘We’re gonna be
accountable to the taxpayer for every dollar we spend,’” said one House Republican. “A ‘blank
check’ means that people get whatever they ask for. What we’re saying is there’s going to be
some thought, there’s going to be accountability, and taxpayer dollars are going to be used
appropriately.”

A week later, it was a House Democrat leader stirring controversy. On Monday, House
Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal sent a letter signed by 30 House Democrats to
President Biden, calling for a diplomatic solution to end Russia’s war on Ukraine.

“Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of
catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and
the world to avoid a prolonged conflict,” Jayapal wrote on behalf of the House progressives. “For
this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has
provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic
framework for a ceasefire.”

It didn’t take even a day for Jayapal to issue a “clarification.”

“Let me be clear,” she wrote. “We are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to
supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and
outrageous Russian invasion, and nothing in the letter advocates for a change in that support.”

CAMPAIGN UPDATE:

For those who still plan to vote on Election Day, the election is nine days away. An increasing
number of voters don’t wait until Election Day to vote. According to data compiled by the
University of Florida’s Elections Project, 20,437,284 people have voted early as of yesterday.
That includes 12,455,429 mail-in ballots and 7,981,855 in-person ballots. There have been a total
of 56,175,142 mail ballots requested.

That’s much higher than normal for a midterm election. In fact, it’s on par with a presidential
election – specifically, the 2020 presidential election.

Meanwhile, evidence of a building Red Wave continues to appear. Last week, Republicans gained
the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s generic ballot advantage for the first time since August. And a new
NBC News poll shows the GOP has a 78-69 percent advantage in voting enthusiasm.

On Tuesday evening, in Pennsylvania, we witnessed a debate in the contest for the U.S. Senate.
Democrat nominee Lt. Gov. John Fetterman – who suffered a stroke just a few days before the
May primary election, and whose recovery has been at the center of the campaign ever since –
squared off against Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz. Fetterman was asked the first question,
and he began his response by saying, “Hi. Goodnight, everybody.” And it went downhill from
there.

In the one poll that fielded after the debate, Oz was leading Fetterman by three points, at 48-45.
That is the first poll since the primary elections that shows Oz in the lead, and I don’t see any
reason for that to change in the remaining nine days of the campaign.

The Cook Political Report still calls this race a Toss Up, but Real Clear Politics now projects a GOP
hold.

The Arizona contest for the U.S. Senate continues to tighten. Two weeks ago, the RCP polling
average advantage for incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly was 4.5 percent. Last week it was
2.5 percent. This week it’s down to 1.5 percent, and while Cook still has the race listed as a Toss
Up, RCP projects a Republican pickup.

The Georgia contest for the U.S. Senate continues to tighten, too. Two weeks ago, the RCP
polling average advantage for incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock was 3.3 percent. Last
week it was 2.4 percent. This week Walker leads in the RCP polling average by 1.6 percent, and it
looks like this race will go to a runoff on December 6.

The Nevada contest for the U.S. Senate continues to look good for the Republicans. GOP
nominee Adam Laxalt’s advantage in the RCP polling average is 1.2 percent. Again, Cook lists this
as a Toss Up, but RCP projects a GOP pickup.

In Wisconsin, incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s RCP polling average advantage two
weeks ago was 2.8 percent. A week ago it remained unchanged at 2.8 percent. This week it
moves up to 3.3 percent. Cook calls this a Toss Up, but RCP projects a GOP hold.

I’ve already put the other three GOP open seats – in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio – in the
Win column. If Republicans can hold on in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, then all they need to do
is pick up one seat from Arizona, Georgia, or Nevada.
Regarding the contest to control the House of Representatives, there’s also been movement
toward the Republicans. Consequently, Republicans are going after what we call “reach” districts
– that is, winning them would be a long shot, a real “reach.” But in years like this one has the
potential to be, this is how you turn a tidal wave into a tsunami3.

So the National Republican Congressional Committee is making investments in three districts

that went for Biden by 20 points in 2020. In California’s 26 th district, and New York’s 25th district,
and Pennsylvania’s 12th district, the NRCC is pumping in some last-minute advertising to see if it
can pick off additional seats.

In a best-case scenario, the GOP picks up three additional seats. In a worst-case scenario, you
force the Democrats to divert scarce resources to districts they’d really rather not have to spend
money in. So at the very least, it keeps the Democrats on defense.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball issued a new rating for the entire House a few days ago, and for the
first time in the cycle, they now show Republicans favored to win at least 218 seats, the exact
number needed to take control of the House – and that’s not counting 22 more seats that they
see as Toss Ups.

The Cook Political Report also sees movement toward the GOP. Cook rates 211 House seats as at
least “leaning” to the Republicans, while only 191 “lean” to the Democrats. Cook has 33 races
listed as Toss Ups. And Cook has changed its House outlook from a GOP net gain of between 10
and 20 seats to a GOP gain of between 12 and 25 seats.

SUGGESTED READING
JENNY BETH MARTIN/TEA PARTY PATRIOTS:
CNS: Jenny Beth Martin: Joe Biden, Master of Inflation

Tea Party Patriots Action Recruits and Trains 1,000s of Poll Watchers, New Website Launched to
Bring In More

Jenny Beth Martin Joins WarRoom To Highlight MAGA Effort At Ballot Box For Secure And Fair
Election

Steve Bannon describes the midterm elections as "a whole different game": "We are prepared
this time. We are trained this time."

Army of GOP activists 'working our butts off' to ensure accurate, reliable midterm elections

GOP activists: Thousands of poll watchers may be deployed for 2022 midterms
Tea Party Patriots Action recruits and trains 1,000s of poll watchers, new website launched to
bring in more

BIDEN’S STUDENT LOAN PAYOFF SCAM:

Political, legal battle heats up over student loan forgiveness

INFLATION:
Mortgage Rates Reach 20-Year High

Mortgage rates rise above 7 percent as Fed scrambles to slow economy

IMMIGRATION:
US Border Patrol sends migrants places where no help waits

Top Biden Cabinet officials warned by GOP to preserve records over border policy

RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE:

McCarthy warns GOP may cut back Ukraine aid if party wins House

Progressive Caucus tries to clarify call for Biden to find diplomatic solution to Ukraine

House progressives withdraw Ukraine letter after backlash

House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm

Inside the House GOP effort to keep weapons flowing to Ukraine | CNN Politics

Support for Ukraine shouldn't turn on who wins midterm elections

CAMPAIGN UPDATE:
House Overview: 10 Rating Changes as Democrats' Blue State Problems Grow

Midterm momentum grows for Republican House gains, while Senate remains tight

GOP reaches deep into Biden-land

MISCELLANEOUS:
IRS Leader’s Looming Exit Leaves Hole at Tax Agency as Expansion Begins
Biden officials quietly discussing lame-duck debt ceiling deal in case GOP wins House

Schools spent only 15% of Biden’s student-relief money last school year, analysis shows

Federal judge grants depositions of Fauci, Biden admin officials over social media censorship

Alito: Leaked draft opinion endangered lives of justices

U.S. Officials Had a Secret Oil Deal With the Saudis. Or So They Thought.

Opinion | Midterms Are a Time for Choosing for Republicans

Department of Energy to Require DEI Plans from Research-Grant Applicants

Do Not Let Leaders Lie to You about Covid School Closures