Forensic Science International 132 (2003) 211–215

Shot range estimation based on pellet distribution

in shots with a pump-action shotgun
I. Çakira, G. Çetinb, H.B. Unerc,*, E. Albekb
a
Council of Forensic Medicine, Ministry of Justice, Turkey
b
Department of Forensic Medicine, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Instanbul University, Turkey
c
Institute of Forensic Sciences, Instanbul University, Turkey
Received 9 October 2002; received in revised form 6 January 2003; accepted 15 January 2003

Abstract

In the present study, shots from different ranges were fired using a non-choked pump-action shotgun (Hugsan) of calibre 12
with a bore length of 52 cm and pellets of various sizes. The aim of the study is range estimation from the distribution of pellets.
Using pellets of 2, 3.5, 5 and 8 mm size, 5 shots were fired from: 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 ms. The maximum distance
between the pellets in vertical and horizontal direction was measured. Statistical evaluation of the data revealed a highly significant
correlation for each pellet type; the constant values a and b were calculated to be used in the linear regression equation y ¼ a þ bx.
As a conclusion, the linear regression equation as well as table data may allow range determination within acceptable ranges
of error for the same barrel length and diameter for the same cartridge type. Under identical conditions they may also provide
information for pellets of comparable size.
# 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.

Keywords: Pump-action shotgun; Range estimation; Pellets; Distribution pattern

1. Introduction bored barrel) and cartridges (length: 70 mm) of Turkish pro-

In cases of firearm wounding and especially in those with
fatal outcome shot range estimation is of paramount impor-
tance for criminal investigations. For purposes of shot range
estimation, gunshot residues on the victim and/or his cloth-
ing may yield valuable clues [1–4]. In cases of wounding by
a shotgun, the distributional pattern of pellets on the target
may also allow shot range estimation [3–8].
In the present study experimental shots were fired from a
pump-action shotgun from different distances using pellets
of varying caliber in order to investigate the correlation
between the distribution pattern of pellets on the target and
the shot range.
2. Materials and methods
In this study, a pump-action shotgun of Turkish produc-
tion, trade mark Hugsan (12/76 Magnum, 52 cm cylinder
*
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: hbuner@istanbul.edu.tr (H.B. Uner).
duction, trade mark MKE (Machine and Chemical Industry)
containing 2, 3.5, 5 and 8 mm diameter lead pellets were
used.
 Shooting area: S.B. Police Training Center.
 Dimensions of the soothing area: 30 m  10 m
 Environmental conditions: Clear sky, average temperature
18 8C, slightly windy, atmospheric pressure approxi-
mately 1 atm
 Target: Fabrics and wrapping paper of varying dimensions
in wooden frame.
Shots were fired from 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1 m, 5, 10, 15, 20,
25 ms distance in a right angle (908) toward the target, using
pellets of 2, 3.5, 5, 8 mm diameters by a professional person,
obeying the technical rules. The distribution of the pellets
was determined by measuring the maximum distance
between the pellets in the vertical and horizontal direction.
Abnormal deviations were not included in the calculation.
The statistical significance of the values was assessed by
the one way (ANOVA) method using post hoc Tukey HSD
test. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated for

0379-0738/03/$ – see front matter # 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.
doi:10.1016/S0379-0738(03)00022-7
 212
Table 1
Descriptive statistics of vertical distance, horizontal distance, pellet diameter and shot range

Pellet Shot Maximal distance between pellets (mm)a

diameter range
Shot 1 Shot 2 Shot 3 Shot 4 Shot 5 Mean distance S.D.

I. Çakir et al. / Forensic Science International 132 (2003) 211–215

(mm) (m)
(N ¼ 5) (N ¼ 5)

VD HD MV VD HD MV VD HD MV VD HD MV VD HD MV VD HD VD HD

2 0.7 20 16 18 20 20 20 21 20 20.5 20 19 19.5 20 20 20 20.2 19 0.45 1.73

0.8 21 21 21 22 21 21.5 22 21 21.5 22 21 21.5 21 21 21 21.6 21 0.55 0.00
0.9 23 24 23.5 24 24 24 26 25 25.5 24 23 23.5 24 23 23.5 24.2 23.8 1.10 0.84
1 30 28 29 30 30 30 31 30 30.5 30 30 30 30 29 29.5 30.2 29.4 0.45 0.89
2 53 53 53 53 61 57 54 54 54 62 65 63.5 59 65 62 56.2 59.6 4.09 5.81
3 110 98 104 100 110 105 100 110 105 110 115 112.5 110 105 107.5 106 107.6 5.48 6.43
5 232 233 232.5 210 200 205 239 235 237 216 225 220.5 235 233 234 226.4 225.2 12.66 14.60
10 480 440 460 470 480 475 470 490 480 470 492 481 472 480 476 472.4 476.4 4.34 21.09
15 700 740 720 702 740 721 760 740 750 730 720 725 732 740 736 724.8 736 24.76 8.94
20 998 995 996.5 982 986 984 983 1007 995 980 930 955 982 970 976 985 977.6 7.35 29.84
25 1290 1238 1264 1244 1193 1218.5 1192 1205 1198.5 1245 1210 1227.5 1242 1230 1236 1242.6 1215.2 34.70 18.46
3.5 0.7 22 20 21 20 20 20 21 20 20.5 22 20 21 20 20 20 21 20 1.00 0.00
0.8 20 22 21 22 23 22.5 25 23 24 24 22 23 23 22 22.5 22.8 22.4 1.92 0.55
0.9 24 23 23.5 22 21 21.5 22 24 23 25 20 22.5 25 24 24.5 23.6 22.4 1.52 1.82
1 23 22 22.5 24 23 23.5 26 23 24.5 25 24 24.5 23 27 25 24.2 23.8 1.30 1.92
2 50 49 49.5 49 47 48 39 45 42 50 49 49.5 50 50 50 47.6 48 4.83 2.00
3 85 88 86.5 84 85 84.5 60 85 72.5 83 85 84 83 85 84 79 85.6 10.65 1.34
5 168 165 166.5 175 170 172.5 165 170 167.5 170 172 171 170 175 172.5 169.6 170.4 3.65 3.65
10 360 380 370 410 400 405 380 390 385 400 397 398.5 396 392 394 389.2 391.8 19.58 7.69
15 670 620 645 640 700 670 602 605 603.5 599 602 600.5 605 615 610 623.2 628.4 30.98 40.69
20 880 832 856 884 840 862 742 880 811 850 860 855 852 861 856.5 841.6 854.6 57.82 18.97
25 950 1015 982.5 960 1063 1011.5 990 985 987.5 980 960 970 910 924 917 958 989.4 31.14 52.99
5 0.7 22 21 21.5 22 20 21 24 22 23 20 22 21 21 22 21.5 21.8 21.4 1.48 0.89
0.8 21 22 21.5 22 22 22 20 28 24 24 20 22 22 22 22 21.8 22.8 1.48 3.03
0.9 25 25 25 24 25 24.5 23 23 23 26 25 25.5 25 25 25 24.6 24.6 1.14 0.89
1 22 20 21 24 22 23 28 24 26 25 23 24 26 25 25.5 25 22.8 2.24 1.92
2 38 38 38 38 39 38.5 36 39 37.5 38 40 39 38 40 39 37.6 39.2 0.89 0.84
3 70 74 72 70 70 70 60 48 54 60 55 57.5 80 78 79 68 65 8.37 12.88
5 167 165 166 165 160 162.5 155 160 157.5 160 150 155 146 160 153 158.6 159 8.44 5.48
 10 330 320 325 380 360 370 380 375 377.5 340 341 340.5 330 310 320 352 341.2 25.88 27.01
15 565 563 564 560 535 547.5 525 543 534 460 480 470 633 565 599 548.6 537.2 63.11 34.46
20 830 780 805 830 760 795 820 762 791 804 838 821 820 725 772.5 820.8 773 10.64 41.44
25 895 980 937.5 800 990 895 860 989 924.5 970 930 950 860 860 860 877 949.8 62.21 55.95
8 0.7 25 25 25 25 25 25 22 25 23.5 26 25 25.5 23 23 23 24.2 24.6 1.64 0.89
0.8 28 25 26.5 25 26 25.5 23 25 24 28 25 26.5 26 25 25.5 26 25.2 2.12 0.45
0.9 26 26 26 26 26 26 24 26 25 26 27 26.5 26 27 26.5 25.6 26.4 0.89 0.55
1 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28.5 31 28 29.5 30 30 30 30 29.2 0.71 1.10
2 34 33 33.5 33 32 32.5 32 33 32.5 34 34 34 35 34 34.5 33.6 33.2 1.14 0.84
3 50 50 50 50 45 47.5 43 45 44 50 45 47.5 55 60 57.5 49.6 49 4.28 6.52
5 90 100 95 80 100 90 90 90 90 91 92 91.5 89 92 90.5 88 94.8 4.53 4.82
10 170 162 166 173 170 171.5 173 164 168.5 173 175 174 186 165 175.5 175 167.2 6.28 5.26

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15 250 220 235 255 300 277.5 190 300 245 200 210 205 230 210 220 225 248 29.15 47.64
20 390 230 310 335 360 347.5 370 355 362.5 264 290 277 240 330 285 319.8 313 65.50 54.04
25 400 460 430 425 400 412.5 450 342 396 490 500 495 470 480 475 447 436.4 35.64 64.69
a
VD, vertical distance; HD, horizontal distance; MV, mean value.

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214 I. Çakir et al. / Forensic Science International 132 (2003) 211–215

the distance variable of the pellets. A linear regression model Table 2

was constituted for each pellet type. Pearson correlation coefficients among vertical distance, horizontal
In the present study experimental shots were fired from a distance, mean value and shot rangea
pump-action shotgun within 11 different ranges, using pel- Pellet diameter Direction Shot range
lets of 4 different diameters. The distribution pattern was (mm)
determined in the horizontal and vertical direction.
2 Vertical distance 0.999
Horizontal distance 0.999
Mean value 1.000
3. Results and discussion
3.5 Vertical distance 0.996
In firearm fatalities shot range estimation is of paramount Horizontal distance 0.997
importance for the reconstruction of the event and for origin Mean value 0.997
determination. This is especially true if there are no eye- 5 Vertical distance 0.992
witnesses, the testimonies are contradictory or there exist Horizontal distance 0.996
incongruencies between the testimonies and other case Mean value 0.996
related findings. 8 Vertical distance 0.983
If rifled weapons are used or slugs fired from shotguns, Horizontal distance 0.979
shot range estimation beyond the reach of gunshot residues Mean value 0.989
or of the wad of the cartridge is not possible. Here, the only a
P < 0.001 for all coefficients.
possible range estimation is that of a distant range shot;
if in contrary, pellets are used, a relationship between the
pellet distribution on the target and the shot range may be In distances under 1 m, the pellets did show no distribution, a
established, thus allowing shot range estimation [3,8]. result consistent with the literature on the subject [3,5,7].
In case of shotguns, type of the weapon, barrel length and Beyond the distance of 1 m, the pellet distribution in the
diameter choke, type of the cartridge, powder and relevant vertical and horizontal direction showed an increase, pellets
properties of the pellets as well as the physical circumstances of small diameters dispersed over a greater arc. The high
under which the shot was fired will influence the distribution number of small pellets in the cartridge causes a decrease
pattern of the pellets on the target. Thus experimental shots of kinetic energy load per pellet, so that the reduction of
under standardized conditions have to be performed in order the velocity by the air resistance leads to a considerable
to establish a correlation between the variables allowing a dispersion.
reliable shot range estimation [3–8]. A high statistical significance was found between pellet
We used for our experimental shots a pump-action type diameter and distribution for shots from different distances
shotgun frequently involved in firearm fatalities as well as (P < 0:001). Correlation coefficients were calculated for
pellets of widely used diameters. each pellet diameter (Table 2).
The experimental shots started from a distance of 0.7 m The formula y ¼ a þ bx allows the estimation of the shot
on. As is seen in Table 1 a distribution pattern applicable range; here, y the shot range (in m), a the constant, b the
for practical purposes is observed beyond the range of 1 m. coefficient, and x the maximum distance between two pellets

Table 3
Linear regression analysis including R, R2, and standard error of estimate

Pellet diameter Direction a constant b coefficient R R2 Standard error

(mm) of estimate

2 Vertical distance 0.5638 0.0197 0.999 0.999 0.3174

Horizontal distance 0.5087 0.02 0.999 0.999 0.3104
Mean value 0.5336 0.0199 0.999 0.999 0.2644
3.5 Vertical distance 0.5275 0.0243 0.996 0.992 0.7739
Horizontal distance 0.5539 0.0237 0.997 0.994 0.6692
Mean value 0.5296 0.024 0.997 0.994 0.6393
5 Vertical distance 0.6264 0.0259 0.992 0.984 1.0782
Horizontal distance 0.7036 0.0256 0.996 0.992 0.7435
Mean value 0.638 0.0258 0.996 0.992 0.7597
8 Vertical distance 0.1122 0.0586 0.983 0.966 1.5691
Horizontal distance 0.1519 0.0588 0.979 0.959 1.7220
Mean value 0.258 0.0597 0.989 0.978 1.2606
 I. Çakir et al. / Forensic Science International 132 (2003) 211–215
in the vertical and horizontal direction or the arithmetical
mean (in mm). R indicates the regression coefficient and its
square (R2) explains the percentage that how maximum
distance between pellets contributes to the variation in the
shot range. In know cases R2 values exceeded 95% (Table 3).
However the values are smaller for larger pellets. With the
formula proposed, pellets with a diameter of 2 mm are
associated with a small error in distance estimation. This
error increases whit pellet over 2 mm diameter. The formula
is not applicable under a shooting distance of 1 ms for 2, 3.5,
and 5 mm pellets and of 2 ms for 8 mm pellets, respectively.
We, however, think, that range estimation is also possible
just with the help of tables without the use of the formula.
One should, of course, always keep in mind, that the results
thus obtained represent only an estimation of the shot range.
As mentioned in the chapter material and method, the data
obtained in this study are valid exclusively for shots fired to
the target under the right angle. In shots under angles other
than the right, the distributional pattern would be ovoid
rather than circular. In this case, the inter-pellet distances
vertical to the shot direction should be determined for a
correct calculation.
The method we present can also be used if there are
aberrant pellets not striking the target; if they are high in
number, however, the reliability of the method would suffer
due to the increased error factor. The method should also not
be applied in cases where a hindrance is interposed between
pellets and target. There, a highly aberrant distributional
pattern due to the billiard ball-effect would result [3,9–11].
Highly aberrant pellets should also not be taken into con-
sideration, because they would increase the acceptable error
range.
Ideally, correlation coefficients should be determined for
all pellet diameters. For diameters other than those used in
this study range estimation with an acceptable error is still
possible if mean values are used. The tables, however, should
215
not be used in shots from shotguns of different barrel length
and diameter.
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