SPC

Quarterly Historical Demand for Clear and Black Plastic Containers

Black Plastic Demand Clear Plastic Demand 2005 - 2009
Year Quarter ('000 lbs) ('000 lbs) 18000
2005 I 2250 3200
II 1737 7658 p=4 (even) 16000
III 2412 4420
IV 7269 2384
14000
2006 I 3514 3654
12000
II 2143 8680

('000 lbs)
III 3459 5695
10000
IV 7056 1953
2007 I 4120 4742 8000
II 2766 13673
III 2556 6640 6000
IV 8253 2737
2008 I 5491 3486 4000
II 4382 13186
III 4315 5448 2000
IV 12035 3485
2009 I 5648 7728 0
II 3696 16591 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
III 4843 8236
IV 13097 3316 Quarter

Black Plastics
Deseasonal Dt (based
ized on Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Demand Dt regression) Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
I 1 2250 2820 0.80 2536 286 286 286 81573 286 13 13 1.00
II 2 1737 3046 0.57 1824 87 87 373 44610 187 5 9 2.00 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 2412 3575 3273 0.74 2283 -129 129 244 35256 167 5 8 1.46
IV 4 7269 3784 3500 2.08 6301 -968 968 -723 260542 367 13 9 -1.97 Regression Statistics
I 5 3514 3965 3727 0.94 3352 -162 162 -886 213706 326 5 8 -2.71 Multiple R 0.955412699281
II 6 2143 4070 3954 0.54 2368 225 225 -661 186517 309 10 9 -2.14 R Square 0.912813425948
III 7 3459 4119 4181 0.83 2916 -543 543 -1203 201938 343 16 10 -3.51 Adjusted R Square 0.906585813516
IV 8 7056 4272 4408 1.60 7935 879 879 -324 273264 410 12 10 -0.79 Standard Error 345.5089345887
I 9 4120 4237 4634 0.89 4168 48 48 -277 243154 370 1 9 -0.75 Observations 16
II 10 2766 4274 4861 0.57 2911 145 145 -131 220950 347 5 9 -0.38
III 11 2556 4595 5088 0.50 3549 993 993 862 290567 406 39 11 2.12 ANOVA
IV 12 8253 4969 5315 1.55 9569 1316 1316 2177 410581 482 16 12 4.52 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 5491 5390 5542 0.99 4984 -507 507 1670 398795 484 9 12 3.45 Regression 1 17497621.061765 17497621 146.57518 8.3469E-09
II 14 4382 6083 5769 0.76 3455 -927 927 743 431723 515 21 12 1.44 Residual 14 1671269.9343291 119376.42
III 15 4315 6575 5996 0.72 4182 -133 133 610 404115 490 3 12 1.25 Total 15 19168890.996094
IV 16 12035 6509 6222 1.93 11202 -833 833 -223 422205 511 7 11 -0.44
I 17 5648 6490 6449 0.88 5800 152 152 -71 398724 490 3 11 -0.14 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 3696 6688 6676 0.55 3998 302 302 231 381645 480 8 11 0.48 Intercept 2592.747610294 214.87342197556 12.066395 8.7135E-09 2131.8895 3053.6057 2131.8895 3053.6057
III 19 4843 6903 0.70 4815 -28 28 204 361599 456 1 10 0.45 X Variable 1 226.8558823529 18.737852840193 12.106824 8.3469E-09 186.66715 267.04462 186.66715 267.04462
IV 20 13097 7130 1.84 12836 -261 261 -57 346930 446 2 10 -0.13
I 21 6616 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 557.6798
II 22 4542
III 23 5448
IV 24 14469 Seasonal Factors
I 25 7432 I 0.899
II 26 5085 8489 II 0.599
III 27 6081 III 0.698
IV 28 16103 IV 1.800
I 29 8248
II 30 5628
III 31 6714
IV 32 17737

Clear Plastics
Deseasonal Dt (based
ized on Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Demand Dt regression) Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
I 1 3200 3876 0.83 2952 -248 248 -248 61682 248 8 8 -1.00
II 2 7658 4140 1.85 7862 204 204 -44 51747 226 3 5 -0.19 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 4420 4472 4404 1.00 4175 -245 245 -289 54508 233 6 5 -1.24
IV 4 2384 4657 4668 0.51 1936 -448 448 -737 91129 287 19 9 -2.57 Regression Statistics
I 5 3654 4944 4932 0.74 3756 102 102 -636 74969 250 3 8 -2.55 Multiple R 0.931048613999
II 6 8680 5049 5196 1.67 9868 1188 1188 552 297539 406 14 9 1.36 R Square 0.86685152163
III 7 5695 5132 5460 1.04 5176 -519 519 33 293529 422 9 9 0.08 Adjusted R Square 0.857340916032
IV 8 1953 5892 5724 0.34 2373 420 420 453 278940 422 22 10 1.07 Standard Error 509.7729917265
I 9 4742 6634 5987 0.79 4560 -182 182 271 251641 395 4 10 0.69 Observations 16
II 10 13673 6850 6251 2.19 11873 -1800 1800 -1529 550581 536 13 10 -2.85
III 11 6640 6791 6515 1.02 6177 -463 463 -1992 520032 529 7 10 -3.77 ANOVA
IV 12 2737 6573 6779 0.40 2811 74 74 -1918 477157 491 3 9 -3.90 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 3486 6363 7043 0.49 5364 1878 1878 -40 711645 598 54 12 -0.07 Regression 1 23685916.213523 23685916 91.145775 1.6536E-07
II 14 13186 6308 7307 1.80 13878 692 692 651 695001 605 5 12 1.08 Residual 14 3638159.0433134 259868.5
III 15 5448 6932 7571 0.72 7178 1730 1730 2381 848128 680 32 13 3.50 Total 15 27324075.256836
IV 16 3485 7887 7835 0.44 3249 -236 236 2145 798597 652 7 13 3.29
I 17 7728 8662 8099 0.95 6168 -1560 1560 585 894841 705 20 13 0.83 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 16591 8989 8363 1.98 15883 -708 708 -123 872980 705 4 13 -0.17 Intercept 3611.978860294 317.02991210163 11.39318 1.8154E-08 2932.0167 4291.941 2932.0167 4291.941
III 19 8236 8627 0.95 8179 -57 57 -181 827207 671 1 12 -0.27 X Variable 1 263.9402573529 27.646322119706 9.5470297 1.6536E-07 204.64474 323.23577 204.64474 323.23577
IV 20 3316 8891 0.37 3687 371 371 190 792727 656 11 12 0.29
I 21 6972 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 820.4349
II 22 17888
III 23 9180 Quarter Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV 24 4125 I 0.76
I 25 7776 II 1.90
II 26 19893 III 0.95
III 27 10180 IV 0.41
IV 28 4563
I 29 8580
II 30 21898
III 31 11181
IV 32 5000

CR - 11/05/2022 23:04:14 624076153.xlsx - Static Forecast

SPC

Black Plastic Demand Clear Plastic Demand Quarterly Historical Demand for Clear and Black Plastic containers
Year Quarter ('000 lbs) ('000 lbs) 2005 - 2009
2005 I 2250 3200 18000
II 1737 7658
III 2412 4420 16000
IV 7269 2384
2006 I 3514 3654 14000
II 2143 8680
III 3459 5695 12000
IV 7056 1953

('000 lbs)
2007 I 4120 4742 10000
II 2766 13673
III 2556 6640 8000
IV 8253 2737
2008 I 5491 3486 6000
II 4382 13186 p=4 (even)
4000
III 4315 5448
IV 12035 3485 a1 = 0.000000 2000
2009 I 5648 7728 b1 = 0.000220
0
II 3696 16591 g1 = 0.000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
III 4843 8236
IV 13097 3316 Solver solution for minimizing MAD(20) Quarter

Black Plastics

Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Level Trend Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
2593 227
I 1 2250 2820 227 0.90 2536 286 286 286 81573 286 13 13 1.00
II 2 1737 3046 227 0.60 1824 87 87 373 44610 187 5 9 2.00 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 2412 3273 227 0.70 2283 -129 129 244 35256 167 5 8 1.46
IV 4 7269 3500 227 1.80 6301 -968 968 -723 260542 367 13 9 -1.97 Regression Statistics
I 5 3514 3727 227 0.90 3352 -162 162 -886 213706 326 5 8 -2.71 Multiple R 0.9554126993
II 6 2143 3954 227 0.60 2368 225 225 -661 186517 309 10 9 -2.14 R Square 0.9128134259
III 7 3459 4181 227 0.70 2916 -543 543 -1203 201938 343 16 10 -3.51 Adjusted R Square 0.9065858135
IV 8 7056 4408 227 1.80 7935 879 879 -324 273264 410 12 10 -0.79 Standard Error 345.50893459
I 9 4120 4634 227 0.90 4168 48 48 -277 243154 370 1 9 -0.75 Observations 16
II 10 2766 4861 227 0.60 2911 145 145 -131 220950 347 5 9 -0.38
III 11 2556 5088 227 0.70 3549 993 993 862 290567 406 39 11 2.12 ANOVA
IV 12 8253 5315 227 1.80 9569 1316 1316 2177 410581 482 16 12 4.52 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 5491 5542 227 0.90 4984 -507 507 1670 398795 484 9 12 3.45 Regression 1 17497621.0617647 17497621 146.57518 8.346873388E-09
II 14 4382 5769 227 0.60 3455 -927 927 743 431723 515 21 12 1.44 Residual 14 1671269.93432904 119376.42
III 15 4315 5996 227 0.70 4182 -133 133 610 404115 490 3 12 1.25 Total 15 19168890.9960938
IV 16 12035 6222 227 1.80 11202 -833 833 -223 422205 511 7 11 -0.44
I 17 5648 6449 227 0.90 5800 152 152 -71 398724 490 3 11 -0.14 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 3696 6676 227 0.60 3998 302 302 231 381645 480 8 11 0.48 Intercept 2592.7476103 214.873421975556 12.066395 8.7135E-09 2131.8895453402 3053.6057 2131.8895 3053.6057
III 19 4843 6903 227 0.70 4815 -28 28 204 361599 456 1 10 0.45 X Variable 1 226.85588235 18.7378528401929 12.106824 8.3469E-09 186.66714927498 267.04462 186.66715 267.04462
IV 20 13097 7130 227 1.80 12836 -261 261 -57 346930 446 2 10 -0.13
I 21 0.90 6616 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 558
II 22 0.60 4542
III 23 0.70 5448
IV 24 1.80 14469 Seasonal Factor
I 25 0.90 7432 I 0.899
II 26 0.60 5085 II 0.599
III 27 0.70 6081 III 0.698
IV 28 1.80 16103 IV 1.800
I 29 0.90 8248
II 30 0.60 5628
III 31 0.70 6714
IV 32 1.80 17737

p=4 (even)
Clear Plastics
a2 = 0 Solver solution for minimizing MAD(20)
b2 = 0
g2 = 0

Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Level Trend Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
3612 264
I 1 3200 3876 264 0.76 2952 -248 248 -248 61682 248 8 8 -1.00
II 2 7658 4140 264 1.90 7862 204 204 -44 51747 226 3 5 -0.19 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 4420 4404 264 0.95 4175 -245 245 -289 54508 233 6 5 -1.24
IV 4 2384 4668 264 0.41 1936 -448 448 -737 91129 287 19 9 -2.57 Regression Statistics
I 5 3654 4932 264 0.76 3756 102 102 -636 74969 250 3 8 -2.55 Multiple R 0.931048614
II 6 8680 5196 264 1.90 9868 1188 1188 552 297539 406 14 9 1.36 R Square 0.8668515216
III 7 5695 5460 264 0.95 5176 -519 519 33 293529 422 9 9 0.08 Adjusted R Square 0.857340916
IV 8 1953 5724 264 0.41 2373 420 420 453 278940 422 22 10 1.07 Standard Error 509.77299173
I 9 4742 5987 264 0.76 4560 -182 182 271 251641 395 4 10 0.69 Observations 16
II 10 13673 6251 264 1.90 11873 -1800 1800 -1529 550581 536 13 10 -2.85
III 11 6640 6515 264 0.95 6177 -463 463 -1992 520032 529 7 10 -3.77 ANOVA
IV 12 2737 6779 264 0.41 2811 74 74 -1918 477157 491 3 9 -3.90 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 3486 7043 264 0.76 5364 1878 1878 -40 711645 598 54 12 -0.07 Regression 1 23685916.2135225 23685916 91.145775 1.653571095E-07
II 14 13186 7307 264 1.90 13878 692 692 651 695001 605 5 12 1.08 Residual 14 3638159.04331342 259868.5
III 15 5448 7571 264 0.95 7178 1730 1730 2381 848128 680 32 13 3.50 Total 15 27324075.2568359
IV 16 3485 7835 264 0.41 3249 -236 236 2145 798597 652 7 13 3.29
I 17 7728 8099 264 0.76 6168 -1560 1560 585 894841 705 20 13 0.83 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 16591 8363 264 1.90 15883 -708 708 -123 872980 705 4 13 -0.17 Intercept 3611.9788603 317.02991210163 11.39318 1.8154E-08 2932.0167203497 4291.941 2932.0167 4291.941
III 19 8236 8627 264 0.95 8179 -57 57 -181 827207 671 1 12 -0.27 X Variable 1 263.94025735 27.6463221197055 9.5470297 1.6536E-07 204.6447409599 323.23577 204.64474 323.23577
IV 20 3316 8891 264 0.41 3687 371 371 190 792727 656 11 12 0.29
I 21 0.76 5602 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 820
II 22 1.90 14403
III 23 0.95 7405 Quarter Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV 24 0.41 3333 I 0.76
I 25 0.76 6293 II 1.90
II 26 1.90 16126 III 0.95
III 27 0.95 8265 IV 0.41
IV 28 0.41 3709
I 29 0.76 6984
II 30 1.90 17850
III 31 0.95 9125
IV 32 0.41 4086

CR - 11/05/2022 23:04:14 624076153.xlsx - Winter

SPC

Quarterly Historical Demand for Clear and Black Plastic Containers

Black Plastic Demand Clear Plastic Demand 2005 - 2009)
Year Quarter ('000 lbs) ('000 lbs) 18000
2005 I 2250 3200
II 1737 7658 p=4 (even) 16000
III 2412 4420
IV 7269 2384
14000
2006 I 3514 3654
12000
II 2143 8680
III 3459 5695

('000 lbs)
10000
IV 7056 1953
2007 I 4120 4742 8000
II 2766 13673
III 2556 6640 6000
IV 8253 2737
2008 I 5491 3486 4000
II 4382 13186
III 4315 5448 2000
IV 12035 3485
2009 I 5648 7728 0
II 3696 16591 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
III 4843 8236
IV 13097 3316 Quarter

Black Plastics
Deseasonal Dt (based
ized on Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Demand Dt regression) Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
I 1 2250 3365 0.67 2396 146 146 146 21443 146 7 7 1.00
II 2 1737 3678 0.47 1775 38 38 185 11448 92 2 4 2.00 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 2412 4454 3992 0.60 2262 -150 150 34 15182 112 6 5 0.30
IV 4 7269 4320 4305 1.69 6397 -872 872 -838 201624 302 12 7 -2.78 Regression Statistics
I 5 3514 4830 4618 0.76 3288 -226 226 -1064 171483 287 6 7 -3.71 Multiple R 0.8876
II 6 2143 5834 4931 0.43 2380 237 237 -827 152226 278 11 7 -2.97 R Square 0.7877
III 7 3459 5149 5244 0.66 2971 -488 488 -1315 164482 308 14 8 -4.27 Adjusted R Square 0.7726
IV 8 7056 4964 5557 1.27 8258 1202 1202 -113 324482 420 17 9 -0.27 Standard Error 800.99
I 9 4120 4876 5870 0.70 4180 60 60 -53 288832 380 1 9 -0.14 Observations 16
II 10 2766 6337 6183 0.45 2984 218 218 165 264698 364 8 8 0.45
III 11 2556 5968 6497 0.39 3681 1125 1125 1290 355643 433 44 12 2.98 ANOVA
IV 12 8253 6064 6810 1.21 10119 1866 1866 3156 616186 552 23 13 5.71 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 5491 6469 7123 0.77 5072 -419 419 2737 582282 542 8 12 5.05 Regression 1 33335601 33335601 51.95859 4.5068E-06
II 14 4382 9092 7436 0.59 3588 -794 794 1943 585681 560 18 13 3.47 Residual 14 8982122.2 641580.16
III 15 4315 7987 7749 0.56 4390 75 75 2018 547015 528 2 12 3.82 Total 15 42317723
IV 16 12035 7433 8062 1.49 11980 -55 55 1964 513014 498 0 11 3.94
I 17 5648 7700 8375 0.67 5964 316 316 2280 488712 487 6 11 4.68 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 3696 9963 8688 0.43 4193 497 497 2777 475272 488 13 11 5.69 Intercept 3052.2 498.13709 6.1271562 2.6186E-05 1983.765 4120.5625 1983.765 4120.5625
III 19 4843 9001 0.54 5100 257 257 3034 453735 476 5 11 6.38 X Variable 1 313.12 43.439619 7.2082307 4.5068E-06 219.954 406.29159 219.954 406.29159
IV 20 13097 9315 1.41 13841 744 744 3778 458757 489 6 10 7.72
I 21 6856 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 611.5753
II 22 4797
III 23 5810 Quarter Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV 24 15703 I 0.90
I 25 6516 II 0.60
II 26 6703 III 0.70
III 27 6891 IV 1.80
IV 28 7078
I 29 7266
II 30 7454
III 31 7641
IV 32 7829

Clear Plastics
Deseasonal Dt (based
ized on Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Demand Dt regression) Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
I 1 3200 3876 0.83 2952 -248 248 -248 61682 248 8 8 -1.00
II 2 7658 4140 1.85 7862 204 204 -44 51747 226 3 5 -0.19 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 4420 4472 4404 1.00 4175 -245 245 -289 54508 233 6 5 -1.24
IV 4 2384 4657 4668 0.51 1936 -448 448 -737 91129 287 19 9 -2.57 Regression Statistics
I 5 3654 4944 4932 0.74 3756 102 102 -636 74969 250 3 8 -2.55 Multiple R 0.931
II 6 8680 5049 5196 1.67 9868 1188 1188 552 297539 406 14 9 1.36 R Square 0.8669
III 7 5695 5132 5460 1.04 5176 -519 519 33 293529 422 9 9 0.08 Adjusted R Square 0.8573
IV 8 1953 5892 5724 0.34 2373 420 420 453 278940 422 22 10 1.07 Standard Error 509.77
I 9 4742 6634 5987 0.79 4560 -182 182 271 251641 395 4 10 0.69 Observations 16
II 10 13673 6850 6251 2.19 11873 -1800 1800 -1529 550581 536 13 10 -2.85
III 11 6640 6791 6515 1.02 6177 -463 463 -1992 520032 529 7 10 -3.77 ANOVA
IV 12 2737 6573 6779 0.40 2811 74 74 -1918 477157 491 3 9 -3.90 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 3486 6363 7043 0.49 5364 1878 1878 -40 711645 598 54 12 -0.07 Regression 1 23685916 23685916 91.145775 1.6536E-07
II 14 13186 6308 7307 1.80 13878 692 692 651 695001 605 5 12 1.08 Residual 14 3638159 259868.5
III 15 5448 6932 7571 0.72 7178 1730 1730 2381 848128 680 32 13 3.50 Total 15 27324075
IV 16 3485 7887 7835 0.44 3249 -236 236 2145 798597 652 7 13 3.29
I 17 7728 8662 8099 0.95 6168 -1560 1560 585 894841 705 20 13 0.83 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 16591 8989 8363 1.98 15883 -708 708 -123 872980 705 4 13 -0.17 Intercept 3612 317.02991 11.39318 1.8154E-08 2932.0167 4291.941 2932.0167 4291.941
III 19 8236 8627 0.95 8179 -57 57 -181 827207 671 1 12 -0.27 X Variable 1 263.94 27.646322 9.5470297 1.6536E-07 204.64474 323.23577 204.64474 323.23577
IV 20 3316 8891 0.37 3687 371 371 190 792727 656 11 12 0.29
I 21 6972 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 820.4349
II 22 17888
III 23 9180 Quarter Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV 24 4125 I 0.76
I 25 7776 II 1.90
II 26 19893 III 0.95
III 27 10180 IV 0.41
IV 28 4563
I 29 8580
II 30 21898
III 31 11181
IV 32 5000

CR - 11/05/2022 23:04:14 624076153.xlsx - Static Forecast (Formulas)

SPC

Black Plastic Demand Clear Plastic Demand Quarterly Historical Demand for Clear and Black Plastic Containers
Year Quarter ('000 lbs) ('000 lbs) 2005 - 2009)
2005 I 2250 3200 18000
II 1737 7658
III 2412 4420 16000
IV 7269 2384
2006 I 3514 3654 14000
II 2143 8680
III 3459 5695 12000
IV 7056 1953

('000 lbs)
10000
2007 I 4120 4742
II 2766 13673
8000
III 2556 6640
IV 8253 2737
6000
2008 I 5491 3486
II 4382 13186 p=4 (even) 4000
III 4315 5448
IV 12035 3485 a1 = 0.17 2000
2009 I 5648 7728 b1 = 0.16
0
II 3696 16591 g1 = -0.28 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
III 4843 8236
IV 13097 3316 Solver solution for minimizing MAD(20) Quarter

Black Plastics

Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Level Trend Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
3052 313
I 1 2250 3365 313 0.71 2396 146 146 146 21443 146 7 7 1.00
II 2 1737 3678 313 0.48 1775 38 38 185 11448 92 2 4 2.00 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 2412 3992 313 0.57 2262 -150 150 34 15182 112 6 5 0.30
IV 4 7269 4305 313 1.49 6397 -872 872 -838 201624 302 12 7 -2.78 Regression Statistics
I 5 3514 4618 313 0.71 3288 -226 226 -1064 171483 287 6 7 -3.71 Multiple R 0.8876
II 6 2143 4931 313 0.48 2380 237 237 -827 152226 278 11 7 -2.97 R Square 0.7877
III 7 3459 5244 313 0.57 2971 -488 488 -1315 164482 308 14 8 -4.27 Adjusted R Square 0.7726
IV 8 7056 5557 313 1.49 8258 1202 1202 -113 324482 420 17 9 -0.27 Standard Error 800.99
I 9 4120 5870 313 0.71 4180 60 60 -53 288832 380 1 9 -0.14 Observations 16
II 10 2766 6183 313 0.48 2984 218 218 165 264698 364 8 8 0.45
III 11 2556 6497 313 0.57 3681 1125 1125 1290 355643 433 44 12 2.98 ANOVA
IV 12 8253 6810 313 1.49 10119 1866 1866 3156 616186 552 23 13 5.71 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 5491 7123 313 0.71 5072 -419 419 2737 582282 542 8 12 5.05 Regression 1 33335601 33335601 51.95859 4.5068E-06
II 14 4382 7436 313 0.48 3588 -794 794 1943 585681 560 18 13 3.47 Residual 14 8982122.2 641580.16
III 15 4315 7749 313 0.57 4390 75 75 2018 547015 528 2 12 3.82 Total 15 42317723
IV 16 12035 8062 313 1.49 11980 -55 55 1964 513014 498 0 11 3.94
I 17 5648 8375 313 0.71 5964 316 316 2280 488712 487 6 11 4.68 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 3696 8688 313 0.48 4193 497 497 2777 475272 488 13 11 5.69 Intercept 3052.2 498.13709 6.1271562 2.6186E-05 1983.765 4120.5625 1983.765 4120.5625
III 19 4843 9001 313 0.57 5100 257 257 3034 453735 476 5 11 6.38 X Variable 1 313.12 43.439619 7.2082307 4.5068E-06 219.954 406.29159 219.954 406.29159
IV 20 13097 9315 313 1.49 13841 744 744 3778 458757 489 6 10 7.72
I 21 0.71 6856 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 612
II 22 0.48 4797
III 23 0.57 5810 Quarter Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV 24 1.49 15703 I 0.90
I 25 0.71 7748 II 0.60
II 26 0.48 5402 III 0.70
III 27 0.57 6519 IV 1.80
IV 28 1.49 17564
I 29 0.71 8640
II 30 0.48 6006
III 31 0.57 7229
IV 32 1.49 19425

p=4 (even)
Clear Plastics
a2 = -0.3323707434 Solver solution for minimizing MAD(20)
b2 = -0.0963815697
g2 = 0.0740675481

Seasonal Percent
Quarter period Demand Dt Level Trend Factor St Forecast Et At bias MSE MAD Error MAPE TS Deseasonalized Demand Regression
3612 264
I 1 3200 3876 264 0.76 2952 -248 248 -248 61682 248 8 8 -1.00
II 2 7658 4140 264 1.90 7862 204 204 -44 51747 226 3 5 -0.19 SUMMARY OUTPUT
III 3 4420 4404 264 0.95 4175 -245 245 -289 54508 233 6 5 -1.24
IV 4 2384 4668 264 0.41 1936 -448 448 -737 91129 287 19 9 -2.57 Regression Statistics
I 5 3654 4932 264 0.76 3756 102 102 -636 74969 250 3 8 -2.55 Multiple R 0.931
II 6 8680 5196 264 1.90 9868 1188 1188 552 297539 406 14 9 1.36 R Square 0.8669
III 7 5695 5460 264 0.95 5176 -519 519 33 293529 422 9 9 0.08 Adjusted R Square 0.8573
IV 8 1953 5724 264 0.41 2373 420 420 453 278940 422 22 10 1.07 Standard Error 509.77
I 9 4742 5987 264 0.76 4560 -182 182 271 251641 395 4 10 0.69 Observations 16
II 10 13673 6251 264 1.90 11873 -1800 1800 -1529 550581 536 13 10 -2.85
III 11 6640 6515 264 0.95 6177 -463 463 -1992 520032 529 7 10 -3.77 ANOVA
IV 12 2737 6779 264 0.41 2811 74 74 -1918 477157 491 3 9 -3.90 df SS MS F Significance F
I 13 3486 7043 264 0.76 5364 1878 1878 -40 711645 598 54 12 -0.07 Regression 1 23685916 23685916 91.145775 1.6536E-07
II 14 13186 7307 264 1.90 13878 692 692 651 695001 605 5 12 1.08 Residual 14 3638159 259868.5
III 15 5448 7571 264 0.95 7178 1730 1730 2381 848128 680 32 13 3.50 Total 15 27324075
IV 16 3485 7835 264 0.41 3249 -236 236 2145 798597 652 7 13 3.29
I 17 7728 8099 264 0.76 6168 -1560 1560 585 894841 705 20 13 0.83 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II 18 16591 8363 264 1.90 15883 -708 708 -123 872980 705 4 13 -0.17 Intercept 3612 317.02991 11.39318 1.8154E-08 2932.0167 4291.941 2932.0167 4291.941
III 19 8236 8627 264 0.95 8179 -57 57 -181 827207 671 1 12 -0.27 X Variable 1 263.94 27.646322 9.5470297 1.6536E-07 204.64474 323.23577 204.64474 323.23577
IV 20 3316 8891 264 0.41 3687 371 371 190 792727 656 11 12 0.29
I 21 0.76 7332 Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error: 820
II 22 1.90 18880
III 23 0.95 9721 Quarter Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV 24 0.41 4382 I 0.76
I 25 0.76 8286 II 1.90
II 26 1.90 21259 III 0.95
III 27 0.95 10909 IV 0.41
IV 28 0.41 4902
I 29 0.76 9239
II 30 1.90 23637
III 31 0.95 12096
IV 32 0.41 5421

CR - 11/05/2022 23:04:14 624076153.xlsx - Winter (Formulas)