fire
Article
An Explorative Methodology to Assess the Risk of Fire and
Human Fatalities in a Subway Station Using Fire Dynamics
Simulator (FDS)
Zaman Sajid 1, * , Yaqi Yang 1 , Peilei You 1 , Hao Deng 1 , Xin Cheng 1 and Syed Nasir Danial 2
Citation: Sajid, Z.; Yang, Y.; You, P.;
Deng, H.; Cheng, X.; Danial, S.N. An
Explorative Methodology to Assess
the Risk of Fire and Human Fatalities
in a Subway Station Using Fire
Dynamics Simulator (FDS). Fire 2022,
5, 69. https://doi.org/10.3390/
fire5030069
Received: 6 April 2022
Accepted: 23 May 2022
Published: 25 May 2022
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affil-
iations.
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Fire 2022, 5, 69. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5030069
1 Department of Process Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University of
Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1B 3X5, Canada; yaqi@mun.ca (Y.Y.); pyo@mun.ca (P.Y.); hao@mun.ca (H.D.);
xchen@mun.ca (X.C.)
2 Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada;
snd804@mun.ca
* Correspondence: zaman.sajid@mun.ca; Tel.: +1-(0)-709-765-8844
Abstract: Subway transportation is one of the most prevalent urban transportation methods globally.
Millions of people around the globe use this medium as their mode of transportation daily. However,
subway stations may be highly prone to fire, smoke, or explosion accidents. The safety of people
using subway stations demands a robust and practical framework to assess fire hazards and risks.
This study provides a methodology to assess fire risk at a subway station. This study integrates fault
tree analysis (FTA) and fuzzy analysis to conduct a comprehensive fire risk assessment. An integrated
numerical model of fire temperature and fatality rate was developed using probit correlations
for various fire exposure scenarios. The fire dynamics simulator (FDS) provides the probability
distribution of casualties caused by fire. To demonstrate the operationalization of the model, Line 1
of the Harbin Metro, located in China, is used as a case study. Results show a probability of 42% of
having fire risk in the subway station. Results reveal the highest fatality rate is 6.2% when evacuation
time exceeds 200 s. The research helps us to understand the spread of smoke and temperature
distribution due to a fire in a subway station. This study is helpful for fire protection engineers,
safety managers, and local fire departments to develop a contingency plan to deal with fire in a
subway station.
Keywords: fire risk assessment; fatality evaluation; subway station; fault tree analysis; fuzzy analysis;
FDS software; safety
1. Introduction
Urban subway transportation has gradually become the mainstream transport mode
because of its convenience, economy, and safety. However, due to often challenging emer-
gency escape routes and the high numbers of passengers using the subway, an unexpected
fire can jeopardize the safety of subway users. Moreover, subway stations have complex
building structures with entrances and exits unknown to new users, intricate evacuation
routes, poor ventilation, inadequate lighting conditions, various types of electrical equip-
ment, and a high density of people [1]. Once a fire erupts at a subway station, the safe
evacuation of its users, extinction of the fire, and rescue tasks may be very difficult for
firefighters. A delay in response can lead to many casualties and high property damages.
In addition, most of the decorative materials in a subway station are combustible, and their
burning will produce toxic gases. Moreover, the passengers’ belongings on the subway are
other flammable substances. A study highlighted that 30% of total accidents in the subway
were due to fire accidents [2].
Many accidents at subway stations have caused severe losses to people and property
and even fatalities. For example, in August 1903, the French Paris Métro fire caused the
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/fire
 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 151 (2021) 111574

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

A dynamic risk assessment model to assess the impact of the coronavirus

(COVID-19) on the sustainability of the biomass supply chain: A case study
of a U.S. biofuel industry
Zaman Sajid
Department of Business Administration, University of the People, 225 S. Lake Ave., Pasadena, CA, 91101, USA
Department of Process Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, N.L., A1B 3X5, Canada

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is highly detrimental, and its death distribution peculiarity has severely
Risk modeling affected people’s health and the operations of businesses. COVID-19 has wholly undermined the global economy,
Risk assessment in the biomass supply chain including inflicting significant damage to the ever-emerging biomass supply chain; its sustainability is dis-
Bayesian network
integrating due to the coronavirus. The biomass supply chain must be sustainable and robust enough to adapt to
Biomass
Supply chain
the evolving and fluctuating risks of the market due to the coronavirus or any potential future pandemics.
COVID-19 However, no such study has been performed so far. To address this issue, investigating how COVID-19 influences
Pandemic a biomass supply chain is vital. This paper presents a dynamic risk assessment methodological framework to
Coronavirus model biomass supply chain risks due to COVID-19. Using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) formalism, the
Virus impacts of COVID-19 on the performance of biomass supply chain risks have been studied. The proposed model
Dynamic Bayesian Network has been applied to the biomass supply chain of a U.S.-based Mahoney Environmental® company in Washington,
Biofuel USA. The case study results show that it would take one year to recover from the maximum damage to the
Model Validation
biomass supply chain due to COVID-19, while full recovery would require five years. Results indicate that
Supply chain risk
biomass feedstock gate availability (FGA) is 2%, due to pandemic and lockdown conditions. Due to the avail-
Sustainability
Feedstock gate availability ability of vaccination and gradual business reopenings, this availability increases to 92% in the second year.
Results also indicate that the price of fossil-based fuel will gradually increase after one year of the pandemic;
however, the market prices of fossil-based fuel will not revert to pre-coronavirus conditions even after nine years.
K-fold cross-validation is used to validate the DBN. Results of validation indicate a model accuracy of 95%. It is
concluded that the pandemic has caused risks to the sustainability of biomass feedstock, and the current study
can help develop risk mitigation strategies.

1. Introduction
A family of viruses that causes illness such as severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS), the common cold, and Middle East respiratory syn-
drome (MERS) is named a coronavirus [1]. In December 2019, a new
coronavirus originated in Wuhan, China, known as acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease this virus causes is
called coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19, commonly known as the
coronavirus. Being infectious, the spread of COVID-19 was quite rapid;
as of March 11, 2020, there were 118,000 cases in 114 countries around
the globe, and 4291 people were dead. Considering this life-threatening
situation, on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO)
declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a ‘pandemic’ [2]. As of May 20,
2020, the COVID-19 has spread to 188 countries and has affected more
than 4.89 million people around the globe. This situation has resulted in
323,000 deaths, while nearly 1.68 million people have recovered [3].
According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control,
the novel coronavirus originated from animals. It is transmitted from
human to human via tiny respiratory droplets through coughing,
sneezing, or when an affected person is nearby (at less than 1-m dis-
tance) to other persons [4]. These droplets can be inhaled, or people can
be infected when they touch a contaminated surface (which contains
such droplets) and then touch their nose, eyes, or mouth [5]. At its origin
in December 2019, no vaccine was available to immunize people and
protect them from the coronavirus. Moreover, there is no standard
treatment for patients with the coronavirus. However, the treatment of

E-mail addresses: zaman.sajid@mun.ca, zaman.sajid@uopeople.edu.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111574
Received 11 July 2020; Received in revised form 4 July 2021; Accepted 6 August 2021
Available online 14 August 2021
1364-0321/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 processes
Article
Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Modeling and Analysis
of Hydrocarbon Vapor Cloud Explosions (VCEs) in Amuay
Refinery and Jaipur Plant Using FLACS
Zaman Sajid 1,2, * , Muhammad Kashif Khan 3,4 , Alireza Rahnama 2 , Farzan Sahari Moghaddam 2 , Kirti Vardhan 2
and Reema Kalani 2
!"#!$%&'(!
!"#$%&'
Citation: Sajid, Z.; Khan, M.K.;
Rahnama, A.; Moghaddam, F.S.;
Vardhan, K.; Kalani, R.
Computational Fluid Dynamics
(CFD) Modeling and Analysis of
Hydrocarbon Vapor Cloud
Explosions (VCEs) in Amuay
Refinery and Jaipur Plant Using
FLACS. Processes 2021, 9, 960.
https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9060960
Academic Editor: Chi-Min Shu
Received: 14 April 2021
Accepted: 26 May 2021
Published: 28 May 2021
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affil-
iations.
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Processes 2021, 9, 960. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9060960
1 Department of Business Administration, University of the People, 225 S Lake Ave, Pasadena, CA 91101, USA
2 Department of Process Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University of
Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7, Canada; arahnamamah@mun.ca (A.R.);
fsaharimogh@mun.ca (F.S.M.); kvardha@mun.ca (K.V.); rakalan@mun.ca (R.K.)
3 School of Mechanical Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, 2066 Seobu-Ro, Jangan-Gu Suwon,
Gyeong Gi-Do, Seoul 16419, Korea; kashif.khan167@gmail.com
4 School of Chemical Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, 2066 Seobu-Ro, Jangan-Gu Suwon,
Gyeong Gi-Do, Seoul 16419, Korea
* Correspondence: zaman.sajid@mun.ca; Tel.: +1-(0)709-765-8844
Abstract: Process safety helps prevent the unexpected and unplanned release of flammable and toxic
chemicals, leading to poisonous gas clouds, fires, and explosions. Vapor cloud explosions (VCEs)
are among the most severe hazards to humans and the environment in process facilities. Therefore,
process safety demands to use best and reliable techniques to model VCEs in process industries
and storage tanks of flammable chemicals. In this regard, the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)
models are more appropriate, as these models provide three-dimensional (3D) modeling of all
sequences of events in an accident. In this study, CFD is used to model VCE in two industrial
accidents: the Amuay refinery disaster (happened in 2012) and the Indian Oil Corporation’s (IOC)
Jaipur terminal (2009). This work studies 3D CFD modeling of flammable cloud explosion in the
real-time configuration for both accidents. FLACS (FLame ACceleration Simulator), a CFD software,
is used to simulate the loss of hydrocarbon containment, cloud formation, and explosion in both
industrial case studies. The ignition locations and grid sizes were varied to analyze their influence on
explosion overpressure, temperature, vapor velocity, and fuel mass. This work also investigated the
effect of geometry complexity on the explosion. Results showed that, as opposed to the coarse grid,
the fine grid provides more precision in the analysis. The study also reveals an explosion overpressure
of the order 4–15 bar (g) for the given case studies. This study’s results can help perform a qualitative
and quantitative risk assessment of the Amuay refinery accident and Jaipur fire. The simulation of
different scenarios can help develop and improve safety guidelines to mitigate similar accidents.
Keywords: process safety; Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD); gas explosion; vapor cloud explo-
sion (VCE) simulation; Amuay refinery; Jaipur fire
1. Introduction
Fuels are a significant energy source for power generation and transportation. In
general, fuels such as petrol, natural gas, diesel, and petroleum gas have high demand.
The need for energy is pushing every country to develop refinement facilities for crude
oil processing and refining. The proliferation of processing industries has increased the
potential hazards to the safety of people and process facilities [1]. Today, process safety
intermingles in the design, production, and maintenance of every processing facility. How-
ever, despite all safety guidelines and measures, accidents are happening. The magnitude
of these accidents ranges from minor damage to equipment or personnel to catastrophic
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/processes