November 2022 Saudi Chartbook

Summary
Real Economy: The non-oil PMI declined slightly month-on-month in
September, standing at 56.6 compared with 57.7 in August. Elevated levels
of business activity and new orders kept the headline survey in expansion
mode. Meanwhile, cement sales and production were up during September.
In addition, latest available data for August showed non-oil exports rose by
16.6 percent year-on-year.

Consumer Spending: Consumer spending was up 12.2 percent year-on

-year in September, but declined by 3 percent month-on-month. POS
transactions rose 18.6 percent year-on-year, while cash withdrawals
declined by 0.7 percent, year-on-year.

The National Industrial Strategy: In October, the Kingdom launched

the National Industrial Strategy, which focuses on 12 main sectors, and
aims to enhance growth in the industrial sector by 2035. Also, the strategy
plans to raise the number of factories to more than 36,000, and place the
Kingdom amongst the top 15 countries worldwide within the Competitive
Industrial Performance (CIP) Index, by 2035.

SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets: SAMA FX reserves increased by $10.9

billion month-on-month in September, to stand at $468.3 billion. During the
month, rises were seen in both bank deposits and foreign securities, which
were up by $9.7 billion and $1.6 billion month-on-month, respectively.

Money Supply, Bank Deposits and Credit: The broad measure of

money supply (M3) rose by almost 9 percent year-on-year in September,
and by 1 percent month-on-month. Total private deposits rose by 6.7
percent year-on-year, with rises seen in both demand and time and saving
deposits during the month.

Inflation: Consumer prices rose by 3.1 percent year-on-year, and by 0.3

percent month-on-month in September. Within the CPI basket, ‘restaurants
and hotels’ rose by 7.5 percent year-on-year, and 0.2 percent month-on-
month. Meanwhile, ‘rentals for housing’ continued rising in September, up
by 3.6 percent year-on-year, and 1.3 percent month-on-month.
For comments and queries please contact:

Real Estate Q3 2022: Real estate prices rose by 1.5 percent, year-on-
Nouf N. Alsharif year in Q3 2022, and by 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. Whilst residential
Managing Director, Research real estate prices continued to push total prices up, commercial real estate
nalsharif@jadwa.com
prices continued to decline on a yearly basis.

Oil: Oil prices inched up in October, with Brent oil prices up by 1

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percent (to an average of $95 per barrel), and WTI oil prices up by 4 percent
(to an average of $88 per barrel), month-on-month. Meanwhile, latest
available official data for August showed that Saudi crude oil and refined
products exports increased to reach 9 mbpd.
Stock Market: TASI rebounded in October on a month-on-month basis,
up by 1.6 percent, lifting the year-to-date performance to 3.4 percent.
Moreover, most major regional and global indices rose during the month.
Meanwhile, average traded volumes saw a marginal decline during October,
compared with September.

Released: October-31-2022, 17:30 UTC+3

November 2022

Real Economy
The non-oil PMI declined slightly month-on-month in September,
standing at 56.6 compared with 57.7 in August. Elevated levels of
business activity and new orders kept the headline survey in
expansion mode. Meanwhile, cement sales and production were up
during September, by 7.1 percent and 13.8 percent year-on-year,
respectively. In addition, latest available data for August showed non
-oil exports rose by 16.6 percent year-on-year.

Non-oil Purchasing Managers’ Index

60

The non-oil PMI declined

slightly month-on-month in 55
September, standing at
56.6 compared with 57.7 in Increasing rate of growth
August. 50
Increasing rate of contraction

45

40
Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22

Cement Sales & Production

(yearly change)

100 Cement production

Cement sales
80
Meanwhile, cement sales 60
and production were up
(percent)

during September, by 7.1 40

percent and 13.8 percent
year-on-year, respectively. 20

-20

-40
Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22
Non-oil Exports
(USD monthly total and yearly change)

non-oil exports % change, y/y (RHS)

9 85
In addition, latest available 75
8 65
data for August showed non
-oil exports rose by 16.6 55
7
($ billion)

(percent)

45
percent year-on-year. 35
6 25
5 15
5
4 -5
-15
3 -25
-35
2 -45
Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22
2
November 2022

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending was up 12.2 percent year-on-year in
September, but declined by 3 percent month-on-month. POS
transactions rose 18.6 percent year-on-year, while cash withdrawals
declined by 0.7 percent, year-on-year. Looking at POS transactions
by sector, ‘education’ showed the largest yearly rise in September.
Meanwhile, ‘furniture’, ‘telecommunications’, and ‘electronics’
declined during the month.
Monthly Consumer Spending
(SR Billion)
ATM POS E-Commerce
120
Consumer spending was up 100
(SR billion)

12.2 percent year-on-year

in September, but declined 80
by 3 percent month-on- 60
month.
40
20
0
Jul-21
Mar-21

May-21

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22
Sep-20

Nov-20

Nov-21
Jan-21

Sep-21

Jan-22

Sep-22
Monthly Consumer Spending
(year-on-year change)

Point of sale transactions Cash withdrawals from ATMs

160
POS transactions rose 18.6 140
percent year-on-year, while 120
(percent)

cash withdrawals declined

100
by 0.7 percent, year-on-
year. 80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22
POS Transactions by Sector in September
(year-on-year change)
40
35
Looking at POS 30
transactions by sector, 25
(percent)

‘education’ showed the 20

largest yearly rise in 15
September. Meanwhile, 10
‘furniture’, 5
‘telecommunications’, and 0
‘electronics’ declined during -5
the month.
Public utlities

Bldg material
Clothings

Electronics
Recreation
Hotels

Health
Restaurants
Jewelry
Misc. goods

Telecom
Education

Others

Transport

Furniture
Food & Bev.

3
November 2022

The National Industrial Strategy

In October, the Kingdom launched the National Industrial Strategy,
which focuses on 12 main sectors, and aims to enhance growth in
the industrial sector by 2035. Also, the strategy plans to raise the
number of factories to more than 36,000, and place the Kingdom
amongst the top 15 countries worldwide within the Competitive
Industrial Performance (CIP) Index, by 2035.

The National Industrial Strategy’s Main 12 Sectors

Machines & Marine Pharma &

The Kingdom launched the appliances industries biotechnology
National Industrial Strategy,
which focuses on 12 main
sectors… Construction
Cars Petrochemicals
material

Food Medical
Aviation
industries appliances

Military Renewable Mineral

equipment energy industries

Manufacturing GDP Targets

(SR billion)

1600
1400
1200
...and aims to enhance
(SR billion)

growth in the industrial 1000

sector by 2035.
800
600
400
200
0
baseline 2030 2035
The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) Index Targets

Also, the strategy plans to 10 Top

place the Kingdom amongst 15
the top 15 countries 20 20
worldwide within the
Competitive Industrial
Performance (CIP) Index, 30
by 2035.
37
40

50
baseline 2030 2035
4
November 2022

SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets

SAMA FX reserves increased by $10.9 billion month-on-month in
September, to stand at $468.3 billion. During the month, rises were
seen in both bank deposits and foreign securities, which were up by
$9.7 billion and $1.6 billion month-on-month, respectively.

SAMA Total Foreign Reserve Assets

Foreign securities
Bank deposits
800 Gold, SDR and position in the IMF
700
SAMA FX reserves 600
($ billion)

increased by $10.9 billion

500
month-on-month in
September… 400
300
200
100
0
Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-22
SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets
(monthly and three-month average change)
Monthly change
Monthly change smoothed (three-month moving average)
20
15
10
($ billion)

...to stand at $468.3 billion. 5

0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Mar-21 Sep-22
SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets
(month-on-month change)
Gold, SDR, and position in the IMF
Foreign securities
During the month, rises 20 Bank deposits
were seen in both bank 15
deposits and foreign 10
securities, which were up
by $9.7 billion and $1.6 5
($ billion)

billion month-on-month, 0
respectively. -5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22

5
November 2022

Money Supply, Bank Deposits and Credit

The broad measure of money supply (M3) rose by almost 9 percent
year-on-year in September, and by 1 percent month-on-month. Total
private deposits rose by 6.7 percent year-on-year, with rises seen in
both demand and time and saving deposits during the month.
Meanwhile, total new residential mortgages for individuals declined
in September, by 17 percent year-on-year.

Growth in Money Supply

M3 (month-on-month) M3 (year-on-year), RHS

4 12

3 10
M3 rose by almost 9
(percent)

(percent)
percent year-on-year in 2 8
September, and by 1
percent month-on-month. 1 6

0 4

-1 2

-2 0
Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22
Breakdown of Total Time and Saving Deposits
(year-on-year change)

Private Time Deposits Government Time Deposits

50
Total time & saving
deposits rose by 18.1 40
percent year-on-year in 30
(percent)

September, with rises seen

in both private and 20
government deposits in
recent months. 10
0
-10
-20
Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22
Residential New Mortgages for Individuals
(Total amount and yearly change)
Land Apartments Villas year-on-year, RHS
Meanwhile, total new 18 300
residential mortgages for 16 250
individuals declined in
14 200
September, by 17 percent
year-on-year. While 12
150
mortgages for land and
(SR billion)

10
(Percent)

villas declined during the 100

month, mortgages for 8
50
apartments rose by 9 6
percent, year-on-year. 4 0
2 -50
0 -100
Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22
6
November 2022

Inflation
Consumer prices rose by 3.1 percent year-on-year, and by 0.3
percent month-on-month in September. Within the CPI basket,
‘restaurants and hotels’ rose by 7.5 percent year-on-year, and 0.2
percent month-on-month. Meanwhile, ‘rentals for housing’ continued
rising in September, up by 3.6 percent year-on-year, and 1.3 percent
month-on-month.
Inflation
(year-on-year change)
Other sub-groups contribution (ppt)
Food & beverages contribution (ppt)
Transport contribution (ppt)
Housing & utilities contribution (ppt)
7 General Index, % y/y
Consumer prices rose by 6
3.1 percent year-on-year, 5
and by 0.3 percent month- 4
on-month in September. 3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22
Prices in ‘Restaurants and Hotels’ group
(year-on-year change)

Accommodation services Restaurants, cafes and the like

10
‘Restaurants & hotels’ rose
by 7.5 percent year-on- 8
year. Within this group,
(percent)

‘restaurants, cafes and the 6

like’ rose by 8.5 percent,
year-on-year.
4

0
Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22

Prices in ‘Rentals for Housing’ Sub-group

(year-on-year change)

6 month-on-month year-on-year
4
Meanwhile, ‘rentals for 2
housing’ continued rising in 0
September, up by 3.6
(percent)

-2
percent year-on-year, and
1.3 percent month-on- -4
month. -6
-8
-10
-12
-14
Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22

7
November 2022

Real Estate Q3 2022

Real estate prices rose by 1.5 percent, year-on-year in Q3 2022, and
by 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. Whilst residential real estate
prices continued to push total prices up, commercial real estate
prices continued to decline on a yearly basis. On a regional level,
residential prices in the Riyadh region saw the largest rise amongst
the main regions, at 4.6 percent during Q3 2022, year-on-year.
Real Estate Price Index by Type
(year-on-year change)
Residential Commercial General Index
Real estate prices rose by 3
1.5 percent, year-on-year in 2
Q3 2022…
(percent)

1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022
Real Estate Price Index by Type
(quarter-on-quarter change)

Residential Commercial General Index

2.0

1.5
(percent)

...and by 0.3 percent

quarter-on-quarter. 1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0
Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022
Real Estate Prices by Region
(year-on-year change)
Makkah Riyadh Madinah Eastern
5

On a regional level, 4
residential prices in the 3
Riyadh region saw the
largest rise amongst main
(percent)

2
regions, at 4.6 percent
during Q3 2022, year-on- 1
year.
0
-1
-2
Residential Commercial Total

8
November 2022

Oil
Oil prices inched up in October, with Brent oil prices up by 1 percent
(to an average of $95 per barrel), and WTI oil prices up by 4 percent
(to an average of $88 per barrel), month-on-month. Locally, Saudi
crude oil production averaged 11 million barrels per day (mbpd) in
September, in line with OPEC+ agreed levels. Meanwhile, latest
available official data for August showed that Saudi crude oil and
refined products exports increased to 9 mbpd.
Oil Prices
(monthly average)
150
Brent
Brent oil prices climbed by 130
1 percent (to an average of WTI
$95 per barrel), and WTI oil 110
prices gained 4 percent (to
($ per barrel)

an average of $88 per 90

barrel), month-on-month.
70

50

30

10
Oct-14 Oct-16 Oct-18 Oct-20 Oct-22
Saudi Crude Oil Production
(monthly average)
12
Saudi crude oil production 11.5
(million barrels per day)

averaged 11 million barrels

per day (mbpd) in 11
September, in line with 10.5
OPEC+ agreed levels.
Moving forward, we expect 10
oil output to stay in-line with 9.5
OPEC+’s latest agreed
levels, and thus decline to 9
an average of 10,478 mbpd 8.5
in both November and
December. 8
7.5
Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22F
Saudi Crude Oil and Refined Product Exports
(monthly average)
12 Oil exports Product exports
11
(million barrels per day)

10
9
Meanwhile, latest available 8
official data for August 7
showed that Saudi crude oil 6
and refined products 5
exports reached 9 mbpd, 4
the highest level since April
3
2020.
2
1
0
Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22
9
November 2022

Stock Market
TASI rebounded in October on a month-on-month basis, up by 1.6
percent, lifting the year-to-date performance to 3.4 percent.
Moreover, most major regional and global indices rose during the
month. Meanwhile, average traded volumes saw a marginal decline
during October, compared with September.

TASI Performance
15,000

13,000
TASI rebounded in October
on a month-on-month basis, 11,000
up by 1.6 percent, lifting the
year-to-date performance to 9,000
3.4 percent.
7,000

5,000

3,000
Oct-06 Oct-10 Oct-14 Oct-18 Oct-22

Comparative Stock Market Performance

(October)
25
20
15
(percent)

Moreover, most major 10

regional and global indices 5
rose during the month.
0
-5
-10
Egypt
Turkey

Kuwait

Qatar

Oman
Abu Dhabi

US
Brazil
UK
Germany

TASI
Dubai
Bahrain

China
MSCI EM

Average Daily Traded Volumes

(October)
20
18
16
(SR billion)

14
Meanwhile, average traded
volumes saw a marginal 12
decline during October, 10
compared with September. 8
6
4
2
0
Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21 Oct-22

10
November 2022

Disclaimer of Liability
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document (the “Publication”)
shall not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without the specific written permission of
Jadwa Investment.

The data contained in this research is sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, The World
Bank, Tadawul and national statistical sources unless otherwise stated.

Jadwa Investment makes its best effort to ensure that the content in the Publication is
accurate and up to date at all times. Jadwa Investment makes no warranty,
representation or undertaking whether expressed or implied, nor does it assume any
legal liability, whether direct or indirect, or responsibility for the accuracy,
completeness, or usefulness of any information that contain in the Publication. It is
not the intention of the publication to be used or deemed as recommendation, option
or advice for any action(s) that may take place in future.

11
 November 2022

Key Data

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Nominal GDP
(SR billion) 2,419 2,582 2,949 2,974 2,638 3,126 3,867 3,882
($ billion) 645 689 787 793 703 834 1,031 1,035
(% change) -1.4 6.8 14.2 0.8 -12.5 18.5 23.7 0.4

Real GDP (% change)

Oil 3.6 -3.1 3.1 -3.6 -6.7 0.2 16.6 3.4
Non-oil private sector 0.1 1.5 1.9 3.8 -3.4 6.1 4.4 3.5
Non-oil government 0.6 0.7 2.9 2.2 0.2 1.5 2.1 2.1
Total 1.7 -0.7 2.4 0.3 -4.1 3.2 8.7 3.3

Oil indicators (average)

Brent ($/b) 43 54 71 66 42 71 102 95
Production (million b/d) 10.4 10.0 10.3 9.8 9.2 9.1 10.6 11.0

Budgetary indicators (SR billion)

Government revenue 519 692 906 926 782 965 1338 1282
Government expenditure* 936 930 1,079 1,059 1,076 1,039 1003 941
Budget balance -417 -238 -173 -133 -294 -74 335 341
(% GDP) -17.2 -9.2 -5.9 -4.5 -11.1 -2.4 8.7 8.8
Gross public debt 317 443 560 678 854 937 938 938
(% GDP) 13.1 17.1 19.0 22.8 32.4 30.0 24.3 24.2

Monetary indicators (average)

Inflation (% change) 2.1 -0.8 2.5 -2.1 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.1
SAMA base lending rate (%, end year) 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.25 1.0 1.0 4.0 4.0

External trade indicators ($ billion)

Oil export revenues 137 171 232 201 120 206 343 331
Total export revenues 184 222 294 262 174 280 420 412
Imports 128 123 126 140 126 142 159 153
Trade balance 56 98 169 121 48 138 261 259
Current account balance -24 10 72 38 -23 56 144 145
(% GDP) -3.7 1.5 9.2 4.8 -3.2 6.7 14.0 14.0
Official reserve assets 536 496 497 500 454 455 575 690

Social and demographic indicators

Population (million) 31.7 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.0 34.1 35.3 35.9
Saudi Unemployment (15+, %) 12.5 12.8 12.7 12.0 12.6 11.0 9.8 9.4
GDP per capita ($) 20,318 21,114 23,539 23,174 20,089 24,436 29,231 28,869

Sources: Jadwa Investment forecasts for 2022 and 2023. General Authority for Statistics for GDP and demographic indicators,
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency for monetary and external trade indicators, Ministry of Finance for budgetary indicators.
*Note: 2016 government expenditure includes SR105 billion in due payment from previous years.

12