September 2022 Saudi Chartbook

Summary
Real Economy: The non-oil PMI was marginally down month-on-month in
July to 56.3 from 57 in June, despite an improvement in business activity
and new export order growth during the month. Meanwhile, cement sales
and production rose during the month, by 3.3 percent and 7.9 percent year-
on-year, respectively.

Consumer Spending: Consumer spending rose by 10.2 percent year-

on-year in July, but declined slightly by 0.6 percent month-on-month, with
cash withdrawals declining by 2.6 percent year-on-year, as POS
transactions rose by 17.7 percent.

Industrial Sector: In June, the non-oil manufacturing index saw a

significant rise by 29.3 percent year-on-year. Moreover, the monthly value of
licensed investments in new factories increased to SR2 billion, with 90 new
licensed factories during the month.

SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets: SAMA FX reserves declined by $2.6

billion month-on-month in July, to stand at $464.1 billion. During the month,
declines were seen in both bank deposits and foreign securities.

Money Supply, Bank Deposits and Credit: The broad measure of

money supply (M3) rose by 8 percent year-on-year in July, but declined
slightly by 0.2 percent month-on-month. Total demand deposits rose by 5.7
percent year-on-year, with rises seen in both private and government
demand deposits.

Inflation: Prices rose by 2.7 percent year-on-year, and by 0.5 percent

month-on-month in July. Within the CPI basket, ‘food and beverages’ rose
by 3.9 percent year-on-year, and 0.1 percent month-on-month, the lowest
monthly rise since December 2021.

Q2 2022 Budget Statement: The Q2 Budget Statement showed that

government revenue totaled SR370 billion in Q2 2022, up 49 percent, or
SR122.3 billion, year-on-year. Meanwhile, government expenses also rose
by 16 percent year-on-year in Q2 2022 to SR292 billion.
For comments and queries please contact:

Oil-Global: Brent oil prices declined 10 percent (to an average of $105

Nouf N. Alsharif per barrel) and WTI oil prices were down 8 percent (to an average of $94
Director per barrel) month-on-month in August. Meanwhile, data from key demand
nalsharif@jadwa.com
centers like the US showed lower stocks in both oil and gasoline in August.

Oil-Regional: Saudi crude oil production averaged 10.8 million barrels

Head office: per day (mbpd) in July, in line with OPEC+ agreed levels. Moving forward,
Phone +966 11 279-1111 we expect Saudi crude oil production to inch above 11 mbpd in September.
Fax +966 11 293-7988
P.O. Box 60677, Riyadh 11555
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Stock Market: TASI continued rising in August on a month -on-month
www.jadwa.com
basis, up by 0.7 percent, which came in-line with other regional markets,
Jadwa Investment is licensed by the Capital despite a downward trend seen in a number of global bourses during the
Market Authority to conduct Securities month.
Businesses, license number 6034-37.

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Released: August-31-2022, 17:30 UTC+3

September 2022

Real Economy
The non-oil PMI was marginally down month-on-month in July to
56.3 from 57 in June, despite an improvement in business activity
and new export order growth during the month. Meanwhile, cement
sales and production were up during the month, by 3.3 percent and
7.9 percent year-on-year, respectively. Moreover, latest available
data for June showed non-oil exports continued rising.

Non-oil Purchasing Managers’ Index

60

The non-oil PMI was

marginally down month-on- 55
month in July to 56.3 from
57 in June. Increasing rate of growth
50
Increasing rate of contraction

45

40
Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22

Cement Sales & Production

(yearly change)

100 Cement production

Cement sales
80
Meanwhile, cement sales
and production rose during 60
the month, by 3.3 percent
(percent)

and 7.9 percent year-on- 40

year, respectively.
20

-20

-40
Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
Non-oil Exports
(USD monthly total and yearly change)
non-oil exports % change, y/y (RHS)
9 85
75
8 65
Moreover, latest available 55
7
($ billion)

data for June showed non-

(percent)

45
oil exports continued rising, 35
up by 26 percent year-on- 6 25
year, and 6.8 percent 5 15
month-on-month. 5
4 -5
-15
3 -25
-35
2 -45
Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22
2
September 2022

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending rose by 10.2 percent year-on-year in July, but
declined slightly by 0.6 percent month-on-month, with cash
withdrawals declining by 2.6 percent year-on-year, as POS
transactions rose by 17.7 percent. Looking at POS transactions by
sector, yearly declines were noted in ’furniture’, ’electronic and
electric devices’ and ’telecommunications’ during the month.

Monthly Consumer Spending

(SR Billion)
ATM POS E-Commerce
120
Consumer spending rose
by 10.2 percent year-on- 100
(SR billion)

year in July, but declined

slightly by 0.6 percent 80
month-on-month. 60
40
20
0

Jul-21
Jul-20

Jul-22
Mar-21

May-21

Mar-22

May-22
Sep-20

Nov-20

Sep-21

Nov-21
Jan-21

Jan-22
Monthly Consumer Spending
(year-on-year change)

Point of sale transactions Cash withdrawals from ATMs

160
Cash withdrawals from 140
ATMs declined by 2.6 120
(percent)

percent year-on-year, but 100

POS transactions rose by
80
17.7 percent in July.
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22

POS Transactions by sector in July

(year-on-year change)
70
60
50
Looking at POS 40
(percent)

transactions by sector, the 30

yearly declines were noted 20
in ’furniture’, ’electronic & 10
electric devices’, and
0
’telecommunications’ during
the month. -10
Hotels

Health
Jewelry
Restaurants

Clothings
Misc. goods

Recreation

Bldg material
Public utlities

Telecom
Education

Furniture
Electronics
Others

Transport

Food & Bev.

3
September 2022

Industrial sector
In June, the non-oil manufacturing index saw a significant rise by
29.3 percent year-on-year. Moreover, the monthly value of licensed
investments in new factories increased to SR2 billion, with 90 new
licensed factories during the month. By size, the share of new small
factories that began operation in June was 77.2 percent of total new
factories.

Index of Industrial production: non-oil Manufacturing

(year-on-year change)

40
30

In June, the non-oil 20

manufacturing index saw a
10
significant rise by 29.3
(percent)

percent year-on-year. 0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22
Volume of Licensed Investments in New Factories
(monthly total)
60

50
Moreover, the monthly
value of licensed 40
investments in new
(SR billion)

factories increased to SR2

billion, with 90 new licensed 30
factories during the month.
20

10

0
Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22

New Factories in June, by size

(percent)

2.97%

small

By size, the share of new 19.80%

small factories that began
operation in June was 77.2 medium
percent of total new
factories.
large
77.23%

4
September 2022

SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets

SAMA FX reserves declined by $2.6 billion month-on-month in July,
to stand at $464.1 billion. During the month, declines were seen in
both bank deposits and foreign securities, which were down by $1.8
billion and $0.6 billion month-on-month, respectively.

SAMA Total Foreign Reserve Assets

Foreign securities
Bank deposits
800 Gold, SDR and position in the IMF
700
600
($ billion)

SAMA FX reserves
declined by $2.6 billion 500
month-on-month in July… 400
300
200
100
0
Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-16 Jul-18 Jul-20 Jul-22
SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets
(monthly and three month average change)

Monthly change
Monthly change smoothed (three-month moving average)
15
...to stand at $464.1 billion. 10
5
($ billion)

0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Jul-16 Jan-18 Jul-19 Jan-21 Jul-22
SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets
(month-on-month change)
Gold, SDR, and position in the IMF
Foreign securities
20 Bank deposits
15
During the month, declines 10
were seen in both bank
deposits and foreign 5
($ billion)

securities, which decreased 0

by $1.8 billion and $0.6 -5
billion month-on-month, -10
respectively. -15
-20
-25
-30
Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22

5
September 2022

Money Supply, Bank Deposits and Credit

The broad measure of money supply (M3) rose by 8 percent year-on
-year in July, but declined slightly by 0.2 percent month-on-month.
Total demand deposits rose by 5.7 percent year-on-year, with rises
seen in both private and government demand deposits during the
month. Moreover, total new residential mortgages for individuals
declined by 23 percent year-on-year in July.

Growth in Money Supply

M3 (month-on-month) M3 (year-on-year), RHS

4 12

M3 rose by 8 percent year- 3 10

on-year in July, but declined
(percent)

(percent)
slightly by 0.2 percent 2 8
month-on-month.
1 6
0 4
-1 2
-2 0
Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
Breakdown of Total Demand Deposits
(year-on-year change)

Private demand deposits Government demand deposits

80
Total demand deposits rose 70
by 5.7 percent year-on- 60
year, with both private and 50
(percent)

government demand 40
deposits rising during the
month. 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
Residential New Mortgages for Individuals
(Total amount and yearly change)
Land Apartments Villas year-on-year, RHS
18 250
16 200
Moreover, total new 14
residential mortgages for 150
12
individuals declined by 23
10 100
(SR billion)

percent year-on-year in
(Percent)

July. 8 50
6
0
4
2 -50

0 -100
Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22

6
September 2022

Inflation
Prices rose by 2.7 percent year-on-year, and by 0.5 percent month-
on-month in July. Within the CPI basket, ‘food and beverages’ rose
by 3.9 percent year-on-year, and 0.1 percent month-on-month, the
lowest monthly rise since December 2021. Moreover, prices in
‘housing and utilities’ were up by 2 percent year-on-year, and 0.7
percent month-on-month.
Inflation
(year-on-year change)
Other sub-groups contribution (ppt)
Food & beverages contribution (ppt)
Transport contribution (ppt)
Housing & utilities contribution (ppt)
7 General Index, % y/y
Prices rose by 2.7 percent 6
year-on-year, and by 0.5 5
4
percent month-on-month in 3
July. 2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22
Prices in selected sub-groups
(year-on-year change)
Food & beverages Recreation & culture
6 Housing & utilities
Within the CPI basket, ‘food
& beverages’ rose by 3.9 4
percent year-on-year, and
(percent)

0.1 percent month-on- 2

month, the lowest monthly
rise since December 2021.
Moreover, prices in 0
‘housing & utilities’ were up
by 2 percent year-on-year, -2
and 0.7 percent month-on-
month…
-4
Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22

Rentals for Housing

(yearly and monthly changes)

4 month-on-month year-on-year
2
...as the sub-group item 0
‘rentals for housing’ saw a -2
(percent)

significant rise in July at 2.1

percent year-on-year, and -4
0.7 percent month-on- -6
month.
-8
-10
-12
-14
Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
7
September 2022

Q2 2022 Budget Statement

The Q2 Budget Statement showed that government revenue totaled
SR370 billion in Q2 2022, up 49 percent, or SR122.3 billion, year-on-
year. Meanwhile, government expenses also rose by 16 percent
year-on-year in Q2 2022 to SR292 billion. As a result, Q2 registered
a fiscal surplus amounting to SR77.9 billion, with H1 2022 total
surplus at SR135.4 billion.
Quarterly Government Revenue
(SR billion)
400 Oil revenue Non-oil revenue
350
300
The Q2 Budget Statement
(SR billion)

showed that government 250

revenue totaled SR370
billion in Q2 2022, up 49 200
percent, or SR122.3 billion, 150
year-on-year.
100
50
0
Q2 17
Q3 17
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q2 18
Q3 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q2 19
Q3 19
Q4 19
Q1 20
Q2 20
Q3 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q2 21
Q3 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q2 22
Quarterly Government Expenditure
(SR billion)
400
350
Meanwhile, government 300
(SR billion)

expenses also rose by 16 250

percent year-on-year in Q2
2022 to SR292 billion. 200
150
100
50
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22
Quarterly Fiscal Balance
(SR billion)
100
80
60
40
As a result, Q2 registered a 20
(SR billion)

fiscal surplus amounting to 0

SR77.9 billion, with H1 -20
2022 total surplus at -40
SR135.4 billion. -60
-80
-100
-120
-140
-160
Q1 18
Q2 18
Q3 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q2 19
Q3 19
Q4 19
Q1 20
Q2 20
Q3 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q2 21
Q3 21
Q4 21
Q1 22
Q2 22

8
September 2022

Oil - Global
Brent oil prices declined 10 percent (to an average of $105 per
barrel) and WTI oil prices were down 8 percent (to an average of $94
per barrel) month-on-month in August. Meanwhile, data from key
demand centers like the US showed lower stocks in both oil and
gasoline in August, likely related to higher demand during the
summer driving season.

Oil Prices
(monthly average)
150
Brent
130
Brent oil prices declined 10 WTI
percent and WTI oil prices 110
($ per barrel)

were down 8 percent

month-on-month in August. 90

70

50

30

10
Aug-14 Aug-16 Aug-18 Aug-20 Aug-22
US Commercial Gasoline Stocks
(average monthly change)
7
6
5
Meanwhile, data from key 4
(million barrels)

demand centers like the US 3

showed lower stocks in 2
both oil and gasoline in 1
August… 0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22
US Commercial Oil Stocks
(average monthly change)
16

12

8
(million barrels)

...likely related to higher

demand during the summer
driving season. 4

-4

-8
Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22

9
September 2022

Oil
Oil -- Regional
Regional
Saudi crude oil production averaged 10.8 million barrels per day
(mbpd) in July, in line with OPEC+ agreed levels. Moving forward,
we expect oil output to stay in-line with OPEC+’s levels, and thus
rising by an average of 26 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) in
September. As a result, we expect Saudi crude oil production to inch
above 11 mbpd in September.

Saudi Crude Oil Production

(monthly average)
12
11.5
(million barrels per day)

11
Saudi crude oil production
averaged 10.8 million barrels 10.5
per day (mbpd) in July, in line 10
with OPEC+ agreed levels.
9.5
9
8.5
8
7.5
Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sept-22F

Saudi Crude Oil and Refined Product Exports

(monthly average)

12 Oil exports Product exports

11
(million barrels per day)

10
Meanwhile, latest available 9
official data for June showed 8
that Saudi crude oil and 7
refined products exports were 6
at almost 8.8 mbpd. 5
4
3
2
1
0
Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22
Saudi Crude Oil Exports
(weekly average)
10
9.5
(million barrels per day)

9
Looking ahead, we expect
exports to continue rising in 8.5
the near term, with unofficial 8
data indicating higher crude
oil exports in July and 7.5
August.
7
6.5
6
Jul 4 - Jul 11 - Jul 18 - Jul 25 - Aug 1 - Aug 8 - Aug 15 Aug 22
10 17 24 31 7 14 - 21 - 28
10
September 2022

Stock Market
TASI continued rising in August on a month-on-month basis, up by
0.7 percent, which came in-line with other regional markets, despite
a downward trend seen in a number of global bourses during the
month. Moreover, average traded volumes trended upwards during
August, compared with July.

TASI Performance

15,000

13,000
TASI continued rising in
August on a month-on- 11,000
month basis, up by 0.7
percent… 9,000

7,000

5,000

3,000
Aug-06 Aug-10 Aug-14 Aug-18 Aug-22

Comparative Stock Market Performance

(August)
20
...which came in-line with 15
other regional markets,
despite a downward trend
(percent)

10
seen in a number of global
bourses during the month. 5

-5
Egypt
Turkey

Abu Dhabi

Qatar

Kuwait
Oman
Brazil

Dubai

TASI

UK

US
Bahrain

China
Germany
MSCI EM

Average Daily Traded Volumes

(August)
20
18
16
(SR billion)

Meanwhile, average traded 14

volumes trended upwards
during August. 12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22

11
September 2022

Disclaimer of Liability
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document (the “Publication”)
shall not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without the specific written permission of
Jadwa Investment.

The data contained in this research is sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, The World
Bank, Tadawul and national statistical sources unless otherwise stated.

Jadwa Investment makes its best effort to ensure that the content in the Publication is
accurate and up to date at all times. Jadwa Investment makes no warranty,
representation or undertaking whether expressed or implied, nor does it assume any
legal liability, whether direct or indirect, or responsibility for the accuracy,
completeness, or usefulness of any information that contain in the Publication. It is
not the intention of the publication to be used or deemed as recommendation, option
or advice for any action(s) that may take place in future.

12
 September 2022

Key Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

Nominal GDP
(SR billion) 2,454 2,419 2,582 3,062 3,014 2,638 3,126 3,839 3,694
($ billion) 654 645 689 817 804 703 834 1,024 985
(% change) -13.5 -1.4 6.8 18.6 -1.6 -12.5 18.5 22.8 -3.8

Real GDP (% change)

Oil 5.3 3.6 -3.1 2.3 -3.3 -6.7 0.2 15.5 2.0
Non-oil activities 3.5 0.3 1.6 -3.2 3.2 -3.4 6.1 3.4 4.8
Government activities 2.3 0.2 0.3 3.5 1.5 0.2 1.5 1.0 1.0
Total 4.1 1.7 -0.7 2.5 0.3 -4.1 3.2 7.7 3.1

Oil indicators (average)

Brent ($/b) 52 43 54 71 66 42 71 102 85
Production (million b/d) 10.2 10.4 10.0 10.3 9.8 9.2 9.1 10.5 10.7

Budgetary indicators (SR billion)

Government revenue 616 519 692 906 926 782 965 1300 1151
Government expenditure* 1,001 936 930 1,079 1,059 1,076 1,039 1003 941
Budget balance -385 -417 -238 -173 -133 -294 -74 298 210
(% GDP) -15.7 -17.2 -9.2 -5.7 -4.4 -11.1 -2.4 7.8 5.7
Gross public debt 142 317 443 560 678 854 937 938 938
(% GDP) 5.8 13.1 17.1 18.3 22.5 32.4 30.0 24.4 25.4

Monetary indicators (average)

Inflation (% change) 1.2 2.1 -0.8 2.5 -2.1 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.0
SAMA base lending rate (%, end
2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.25 0.75 0.75 2.00 2.75
year)

External trade indicators ($ billion)

Oil export revenues 153 137 171 232 201 120 206 342 295
Total export revenues 204 184 222 294 262 174 280 419 376
Imports 159 128 123 126 140 126 142 157 153
Trade balance 44 56 98 169 121 48 138 262 223
Current account balance -57 -24 10 72 38 -23 56 146 117
(% GDP) -8.7 -3.7 1.5 8.8 4.8 -3.2 6.7 14.3 11.9
Official reserve assets 616 536 496 497 500 454 455 581 664

Social and demographic

indicators
Population (million) 31.0 31.7 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.0 35.4 35.8 36.3
Saudi Unemployment (15+, %) 11.5 12.5 12.8 12.7 12.0 12.6 11.0 10.7 10.4
GDP per capita ($) 21,095 20,318 21,114 24,438 23,485 20,089 23,557 28,597 27,158

Sources: Jadwa Investment forecasts for 2022 and 2023. General Authority for Statistics for GDP and demographic indicators,
Saudi Central for monetary and external trade indicators, Ministry of Finance for budgetary indicators. Note: *2016 government
expenditure includes SR105 billion in due payment from previous years.

13