Caso Lavar

Alternativa B
TE 335 var 121.2

Tiempo Tiempo Deseado z Prob Prob Int atraso Multa

315 315 -1.8167 0.0346 0.0346 0 0
316 315 -1.7258 0.0422 0.0076 1 2200
317 315 -1.6350 0.0510 0.0088 2 4400
318 315 -1.5442 0.0613 0.0102 3 6600
319 315 -1.4533 0.0731 0.0118 4 8800
320 315 -1.3625 0.0865 0.0135 5 11000
321 315 -1.2717 0.1017 0.0152 6 13200
322 315 -1.1808 0.1188 0.0171 7 15400
323 315 -1.0900 0.1379 0.0190 8 17600
324 315 -0.9992 0.1589 0.0210 9 19800
325 315 -0.9083 0.1818 0.0230 10 22000
326 315 -0.8175 0.2068 0.0250 11 24200
327 315 -0.7267 0.2337 0.0269 12 26400
328 315 -0.6358 0.2624 0.0287 13 28600
329 315 -0.5450 0.2929 0.0304 14 30800
330 315 -0.4542 0.3249 0.0320 15 33000
331 315 -0.3633 0.3582 0.0333 16 35200
332 315 -0.2725 0.3926 0.0344 17 37400
333 315 -0.1817 0.4279 0.0353 18 39600
334 315 -0.0908 0.4638 0.0359 19 41800
335 315 0.0000 0.5000 0.0362 20 44000
336 315 0.0908 0.5362 0.0362 21 46200
337 315 0.1817 0.5721 0.0359 22 48400
338 315 0.2725 0.6074 0.0353 23 50600
339 315 0.3633 0.6418 0.0344 24 52800
340 315 0.4542 0.6751 0.0333 25 55000
341 315 0.5450 0.7071 0.0320 26 57200
342 315 0.6358 0.7376 0.0304 27 59400
343 315 0.7267 0.7663 0.0287 28 61600
344 315 0.8175 0.7932 0.0269 29 63800
345 315 0.9083 0.8182 0.0250 30 66000
346 315 0.9992 0.8411 0.0230 31 68200
347 315 1.0900 0.8621 0.0210 32 70400
348 315 1.1808 0.8812 0.0190 33 72600
349 315 1.2717 0.8983 0.0171 34 74800
350 315 1.3625 0.9135 0.0152 35 77000
351 315 1.4533 0.9269 0.0135 36 79200
352 315 1.5442 0.9387 0.0118 37 81400
353 315 1.6350 0.9490 0.0102 38 83600
354 315 1.7258 0.9578 0.0088 39 85800
355 315 1.8167 0.9654 0.0076 40 88000
356 315 1.9075 0.9718 0.0064 41 90200
357 315 1.9983 0.9772 0.0054 42 92400
358 315 2.0892 0.9817 0.0045 43 94600
359 315 2.1800 0.9854 0.0037 44 96800
360 315 2.2709 0.9884 0.0031 45 99000
361 315 2.3617 0.9909 0.0025 46 101200
362 315 2.4525 0.9929 0.0020 47 103400
363 315 2.5434 0.9945 0.0016 48 105600
364 315 2.6342 0.9958 0.0013 49 107800
365 315 2.7250 0.9968 0.0010 50 110000
366 315 2.8159 0.9976 0.0008 51 112200
367 315 2.9067 0.9982 0.0006 52 114400
368 315 2.9975 0.9986 0.0005 53 116600
369 315 3.0884 0.9990 0.0004 54 118800
370 315 3.1792 0.9993 0.0003 55 121000
371 315 3.2700 0.9995 0.0002 56 123200
372 315 3.3609 0.9996 0.0001 57 125400
373 315 3.4517 0.9997 0.0001 58 127600
374 315 3.5425 0.9998 0.0001 59 129800
375 315 3.6334 0.9999 0.0001 60 132000
Multa esperada 45375
atraso equivalente 20.6
verifica aproximación de 20 días atraso esperado
utlizada en resolución analítica
Caso Lavar
Alternativa B, con reducción 50% en tiempo de permisos
TE 315 var 121.2

Tiempo Tiempo Deseado z Prob Prob Int atraso Multa

315 315 0.0000 0.5000 0.5000 0 0
316 315 0.0908 0.5362 0.0362 1 2200
317 315 0.1817 0.5721 0.0359 2 4400
318 315 0.2725 0.6074 0.0353 3 6600
319 315 0.3633 0.6418 0.0344 4 8800
320 315 0.4542 0.6751 0.0333 5 11000
321 315 0.5450 0.7071 0.0320 6 13200
322 315 0.6358 0.7376 0.0304 7 15400
323 315 0.7267 0.7663 0.0287 8 17600
324 315 0.8175 0.7932 0.0269 9 19800
325 315 0.9083 0.8182 0.0250 10 22000
326 315 0.9992 0.8411 0.0230 11 24200
327 315 1.0900 0.8621 0.0210 12 26400
328 315 1.1808 0.8812 0.0190 13 28600
329 315 1.2717 0.8983 0.0171 14 30800
330 315 1.3625 0.9135 0.0152 15 33000
331 315 1.4533 0.9269 0.0135 16 35200
332 315 1.5442 0.9387 0.0118 17 37400
333 315 1.6350 0.9490 0.0102 18 39600
334 315 1.7258 0.9578 0.0088 19 41800
335 315 1.8167 0.9654 0.0076 20 44000
336 315 1.9075 0.9718 0.0064 21 46200
337 315 1.9983 0.9772 0.0054 22 48400
338 315 2.0892 0.9817 0.0045 23 50600
339 315 2.1800 0.9854 0.0037 24 52800
340 315 2.2709 0.9884 0.0031 25 55000
341 315 2.3617 0.9909 0.0025 26 57200
342 315 2.4525 0.9929 0.0020 27 59400
343 315 2.5434 0.9945 0.0016 28 61600
344 315 2.6342 0.9958 0.0013 29 63800
345 315 2.7250 0.9968 0.0010 30 66000
346 315 2.8159 0.9976 0.0008 31 68200
347 315 2.9067 0.9982 0.0006 32 70400
348 315 2.9975 0.9986 0.0005 33 72600
349 315 3.0884 0.9990 0.0004 34 74800
350 315 3.1792 0.9993 0.0003 35 77000
351 315 3.2700 0.9995 0.0002 36 79200
352 315 3.3609 0.9996 0.0001 37 81400
353 315 3.4517 0.9997 0.0001 38 83600
354 315 3.5425 0.9998 0.0001 39 85800
355 315 3.6334 0.9999 0.0001 40 88000
356 315 3.7242 0.9999 0.0000 41 90200
357 315 3.8150 0.9999 0.0000 42 92400
358 315 3.9059 1.0000 0.0000 43 94600
359 315 3.9967 1.0000 0.0000 44 96800
360 315 4.0875 1.0000 0.0000 45 99000
361 315 4.1784 1.0000 0.0000 46 101200
362 315 4.2692 1.0000 0.0000 47 103400
363 315 4.3600 1.0000 0.0000 48 105600
364 315 4.4509 1.0000 0.0000 49 107800
Multa esperada 10219
atraso equivalente 4.6